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PostPosted: Wed Nov 14, 2012 11:07 am 
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Johnston wrote:


Vet only needs 11 to recoup the lead. Although depending on how you apply the hypothetical rules he has lost more than that. 25 in Valencia alone. Which would take away points from Lewis hypothetical points score also, increasing the gap further than a simple lost win for Seb and a lost third for Lewis instead it becomes a lost win and a lost fourth at best reducing Lewis' lost points. The bumping of Lewis down increases the gap at the top of the table further.

Take Canada Monza and Abu into consideration your POV on the Malaysia incident and it wouldn't be too hard to take enough points from Lewis and hand enough to Seb to rule Lewis out of contention.

Put alonso into the Mix for Japan everyone for Spa and who knows what you have.


I understand what you mean and at some point of the season every driver gets his share of DNFs. There is a "natural" rate for DNFs but, in my opinion, a team that stays as close as possible to this rate is going to get better results during a season than a team that has a lot of variance around it.


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PostPosted: Wed Nov 14, 2012 11:15 am 
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El_Chuzalongo wrote:

I understand what you mean and at some point of the season every driver gets his share of DNFs. There is a "natural" rate for DNFs but, in my opinion, a team that stays as close as possible to this rate is going to get better results during a season than a team that has a lot of variance around it.



What is the natural rate of DNFs?

then how do you decide which ones to incorporate into the hypothetical world?

You can't say "Can't count Valencia for Seb it was Natural but count Singapore for Lewis because it wasn't."

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PostPosted: Wed Nov 14, 2012 11:15 am 
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XRV750 wrote:
Lewis was a weak link this year. Inconsistent and distracted. He is no longer a sports man but a sports celebrity. He never had much focus, but now he has loads.......its just on popstardom and twitter. He is a celeb now and his utter failure this season is huge, undeniable proof of that. And just look at the reasons for his move to Merc, to tap into personal sponsorship....not the mentality of someone with their head in the game frankly.


Why not add he hunts down baby seals with a club too?
Ps you may want to look in his official thread to see why he wanted to do less Promotional work. Its as far from what you see of him as possible.[/quote]
What ever you like lad. And i didn't say promotional work, I said personal sponsorship.[/quote]

I never said you did. You have absolutely no proof as to the reason for his move. So why try to discredit him?[/quote]
I'm not trying to discredit him. I'm merely stating what I perceive.[/quote]
If you are serious, about Hamilton not focused and weak limk,I don't know how to call his team mate and his team. really?
Hamilton was the best thing at McLaren 2012[/quote]
I'd say the same about the team, they seem to have lost focus, I'd say there was that classic rift between team and driver. I'd imagine Lewis felt alienated because of Jenson drawing the team around him. And to be honest, I find it hard to justify Maccas decision to support Jenson more than Lewis given Jenson's troubles this year. I'm surprised and worried that Jenson has had the trouble he has had this year despite massive team support. Its all not adding up. He'll have to justify the teams faith in him next season. Lets see how he does.

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PostPosted: Wed Nov 14, 2012 11:18 am 
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I think mclaren finds new ways to ruin its chances of WDC and WCC... in 2007, the drivers imploded. in 2008 they won by a narrow margin.... This year they had a whole array of disasters... I wouldnt say lewis would have won the title if team wouldnt have blundered but he is atleast be fighting for it for sure!!!

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PostPosted: Wed Nov 14, 2012 11:27 am 
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Johnston wrote:
El_Chuzalongo wrote:

I understand what you mean and at some point of the season every driver gets his share of DNFs. There is a "natural" rate for DNFs but, in my opinion, a team that stays as close as possible to this rate is going to get better results during a season than a team that has a lot of variance around it.



What is the natural rate of DNFs?

then how do you decide which ones to incorporate into the hypothetical world?

You can't say "Can't count Valencia for Seb it was Natural but count Singapore for Lewis because it wasn't."


That's right

I completely get it now!

Unnatural DNF = It happened to Lewis
Natural DNF = it happened to anyone but Lewis


Very logical and helps explain why Lewis should be leading the WDC

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PostPosted: Wed Nov 14, 2012 12:25 pm 
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'McLaren's nightmare season in a nutshell' has reached page 5

love this place ......

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PostPosted: Wed Nov 14, 2012 12:44 pm 
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Sorry to derail this, but does anybody else have "Harry Hill's TV Burp" music in their head when they read this thread title??

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PostPosted: Wed Nov 14, 2012 1:07 pm 
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SilverstoneRegular wrote:
Johnston wrote:
El_Chuzalongo wrote:

I understand what you mean and at some point of the season every driver gets his share of DNFs. There is a "natural" rate for DNFs but, in my opinion, a team that stays as close as possible to this rate is going to get better results during a season than a team that has a lot of variance around it.



What is the natural rate of DNFs?

then how do you decide which ones to incorporate into the hypothetical world?

You can't say "Can't count Valencia for Seb it was Natural but count Singapore for Lewis because it wasn't."


That's right

I completely get it now!

Unnatural DNF = It happened to Lewis
Natural DNF = it happened to anyone but Lewis


Very logical and helps explain why Lewis should be leading the WDC


I dont think is necessry to make the analysis in the hyphotetical world. A statistical analysis would be enough to conclude which teams are losing more points than others because of DNFs.


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PostPosted: Wed Nov 14, 2012 1:18 pm 
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El_Chuzalongo wrote:
SilverstoneRegular wrote:
Johnston wrote:
El_Chuzalongo wrote:

I understand what you mean and at some point of the season every driver gets his share of DNFs. There is a "natural" rate for DNFs but, in my opinion, a team that stays as close as possible to this rate is going to get better results during a season than a team that has a lot of variance around it.



What is the natural rate of DNFs?

then how do you decide which ones to incorporate into the hypothetical world?

You can't say "Can't count Valencia for Seb it was Natural but count Singapore for Lewis because it wasn't."


That's right

I completely get it now!

Unnatural DNF = It happened to Lewis
Natural DNF = it happened to anyone but Lewis


Very logical and helps explain why Lewis should be leading the WDC


I dont think is necessry to make the analysis in the hyphotetical world. A statistical analysis would be enough to conclude which teams are losing more points than others because of DNFs.


So we should wipe out the extra DNF's a driver gets over his competitors? This is F1 the pinnacle of Motorsport where technology is pushed to gain extra performance meaning things will break!

If one team breaks down less than another it's because they've not needed to push too hard to find that performance (Red Bull had such a lead last year they could be cautious in this years design and it meant at the start of the year they had lost that gap)

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PostPosted: Wed Nov 14, 2012 2:20 pm 
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El_Chuzalongo wrote:
SilverstoneRegular wrote:
Johnston wrote:
El_Chuzalongo wrote:

I understand what you mean and at some point of the season every driver gets his share of DNFs. There is a "natural" rate for DNFs but, in my opinion, a team that stays as close as possible to this rate is going to get better results during a season than a team that has a lot of variance around it.



What is the natural rate of DNFs?

then how do you decide which ones to incorporate into the hypothetical world?

You can't say "Can't count Valencia for Seb it was Natural but count Singapore for Lewis because it wasn't."


That's right

I completely get it now!

Unnatural DNF = It happened to Lewis
Natural DNF = it happened to anyone but Lewis


Very logical and helps explain why Lewis should be leading the WDC


I dont think is necessry to make the analysis in the hyphotetical world. A statistical analysis would be enough to conclude which teams are losing more points than others because of DNFs.


The very fact it didn't happen means that any points "Lost" are hypothetical. Especially when you are talking about points like Spain which are based on events before the race even started.

saying he lost 25 or 21 points is 100 percent hypothetical.

Edit: plus what do you do for the likes of Valencia? Vettel loses the Win Lewis the third. Or factor in both results at once. So it's a 1st and 4th. Then what about RJ, Maldo and even Webber.

Depending on how you decide to do it you could manipulate the results in anyway

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PostPosted: Thu Nov 15, 2012 1:48 pm 
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Lets just agree that if Hammy had a reliable car, he would still be in contention, as that may DNF's being canceled out would have eaten into the others leads. There is also a sharper edge to the races that we would have seen, more risk for Alonso and more performance needed from Vettel, the kinda had it much easier than it should have been this year.

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PostPosted: Thu Nov 15, 2012 2:04 pm 
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WheelGun wrote:
Lets just agree that if Hammy had a reliable car, he would still be in contention, as that may DNF's being canceled out would have eaten into the others leads. There is also a sharper edge to the races that we would have seen, more risk for Alonso and more performance needed from Vettel, the kinda had it much easier than it should have been this year.


And other peoples DNFs if cancelled out would eat into his points.

again making this whole "If hammy had" a biased argument.

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PostPosted: Thu Nov 15, 2012 2:39 pm 
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WheelGun wrote:
Lets just agree that if Hammy had a reliable car, he would still be in contention, as that may DNF's being canceled out would have eaten into the others leads. There is also a sharper edge to the races that we would have seen, more risk for Alonso and more performance needed from Vettel, the kinda had it much easier than it should have been this year.

Oh completely agree, he may even have been ahead of everyone else at this point. McLaren have been shambles this year and Lewis has suffered the brunt of their incompetence under the poor leadership of Twitmarsh.


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PostPosted: Thu Nov 15, 2012 3:09 pm 
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chinki wrote:
WheelGun wrote:
Lets just agree that if Hammy had a reliable car, he would still be in contention, as that may DNF's being canceled out would have eaten into the others leads. There is also a sharper edge to the races that we would have seen, more risk for Alonso and more performance needed from Vettel, the kinda had it much easier than it should have been this year.

Oh completely agree, he may even have been ahead of everyone else at this point. McLaren have been shambles this year and Lewis has suffered the brunt of their incompetence under the poor leadership of Twitmarsh.


Compared to Mercedes and Ross Brawn McLaren have been brilliant, so perhaps Scumacher really should have been ahead of everyon else too?


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PostPosted: Thu Nov 15, 2012 4:49 pm 
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That would obviously depend on how he had driven when he did finish a race...
And obviously some people have the uncompromising mindset to see that where you finish in F1 is down to a number of factors, including very much reliablity of the car. If say the cyclists who did so well in the Olympics had unreliable bikes, they would in some peoples totally biased eyes, be unworthy of any praise.

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