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hello new to this, been watching f1 since 1984, everyone seems to think lewis has done the wrong thing but i believe that merc may have played a canny hand tbh as in knowing that this year was a write off and already know there have a good car for next year and maybe be out the blocks sprinting, god i hope im right lol

Unfortunately Mercedes, Honda and BAR have wheeled that old chestnut out every year for the last decade.

It was true once, and that was on what has been coined the most expensive F1 car in history, but every other year has followed the same pattern...early promise, little to no development and then it's soon time to bring out the "We're concentrating on next year's car..." line again.

I'm almost counting the years to 2015 already...

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totally agree , but not alot has been said this year about rolling out a good car next year, been very quiet on that fronty which for me begs the question have they got something up there sleeve.

Brawn has. In an interview it was mentioned that Lewis said he wasn't targeting wins next year. Brawn said something in the line of "Lewis is mistaken we will be aiming for wins"

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Disclaimer: The above post maybe tongue in cheek.

"I thought I'd get your theories, mock them, then embrace my own. The usual."

No major changes, but it's true they usually have something or other in the works. This year's big trick was the double DRS...unfortunately for them it just didn't work as well as they'd hoped.

To be honest I think they're being deliberately quiet this year as they know there's going to be a lot more attention coming their way with Lewis in the team. Schumi was a massive figure, but he was more of a sideshow attraction...they've now got one of the 3 or 4 major players in the sport...so they know they're going to have to up their game or face a barrage of criticism.

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Mercedes may already be looking forward to 2014 when new engine regulations come into effect. Mercedes denied budget increase for 2013, but maybe they will do it for 2014?

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2012 Planet F1 Prediction Competition Champion

Oops my bad, but dont all the top teams say we are going for wins etc, maybe just maybe lewis played down his chances so if they do come out the blocks good it wil look like he has played major part in it , then again sometimes i live in a dreamworld lol

They have written off this year, that's fact.

But a good car for next year? Doubt it. Not for the entire season anyway.

They have written off this year, next year and every other year. They are focusing entirely Lewis Hamilton rap videos with cunning Mercedes product placement. Pimps and rappers are their biggest customer base in the US.

They have just been so quiet about next year. That's what makes me think they have something up there sleeve. But I dunno!!!

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I love F1.

Mercedes still have Sauber to fear in the WCC chase, they are just 12 points back. That's a lot of money at stake.

As far as 2013, I doubt it, everything seems to point towards 2014 as a really big push by Mercedes to get onto the top rung.

Just yesterday Diamler bought out the last of the outside investors, they now have complete ownership and control of the race team. My sources also indicate that Mercedes are devoting as much resources towards the 2014 car as the 2013 car. The kicker is that Mercedes always had the upper hand in KERS. They had a reliable and effective KERS when it was first introduced, and it is still the best system. In 2014 effective energy recovery systems and powerplant integration with those systems should lead to a dominating car.

The turbo will be allowed to collect energy and use it to augment the engine to boost torque and eliminate turbo lag. KERS will be enlarged, they will be able to use it much more, and the energy output will be doubled. It will have a profound influence on the car, and if Mercedes get it right and develop a system that integrates all these resources into a seamless experience for the driver, it may be a game changer.

This. Mercedes the team are really not that different to Honda the team. Brawn took a chance on the DDD for 2009 and it worked to devastating effect but when everyone caught up and found new innovations the team once again fell behind. It's probably fair to say that the main reason they were competitive at the start of 2012 wasn't because they had a genuinely fast car, but because everyone else was finding their feet still. Once McLaren/Red Bull/Ferrari/Lotus found those feet and brought newer pats to the table Mercedes simply fell back like a stone and couldn't keep up.

I think people forget that Brawn isn't a car designer. He didn't design the 2009 Brawn, his design team did. A lot of that design team have since gone. He might be a master strategist, and even that has been lacking this year for Merc, but he can't do everything. They might be banking on the 2014 rule changes but unless they have some kind of DDD like trick then they could be on a hiding to nothing because every other team will be making just as much effort to get it right. Just because Mercedes might build a good engine doesn't mean they'll build a good chassis. Look at Red Bull and Caterham, both Renault engines but one has just won the WCC and the other hasn't even scored a point. The engine probably won't change much. It's down to the chassis and the aero. Mercedes have a lot of work to do. There's also the question of reliablity, something that has been a big problem for Hamilton at McLaren this year. The last time Merc built a whole new engine was 2005/6 and it blew up. A lot. Hamilton may have to be a patient boy.

To me Merc look to be a team in the same shape as Toyota and Honda. Always promising, never delivering. Big changes are needed for them to even stand a chance of fighting for titles and yes signing a driver of Hamilton's quality shows they have a bit more ambition than Honda (they signed Barrichello, Button was already part of the furnatire) or Toyota (Ralf and Trulli?) ever did. But they need more than just a star driver, because without a decent car a star driver just looks like a driver. I hope for Hamilton's sake the Merc design team have a few tricks up their sleeves for the next few years or he could be in for a very tough time.

Then again they could get it all spot on at just the right time and waltz to both titles. But history suggests otherwise.

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If they can make it reliable. Mercedes history with brand new engines has never been strong. It could be a case of speed but a lot of break downs in races until they strengthen everything.

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1994 1995 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004

I'm pretty sure any team that isn't RBR or Ferrari are now fully concentrating on 2013 if not 2014. I think Merc may be concentrating more on the latter though. Even with Hamilton driving for them next year, I'm not expecting big results.

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Drivers I like:
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Fantastic analysis

With sponsors I can't see him saying anything else at this point. I would be over the moon if Lewis could replicate the season Kimi has had this year, a win, consistency and a half dozen podiums.

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http://www.racefan.co.uk

Thanks Blinky.

I completely agree with your turbo/KERS stuff too despite what I said about reliability. If Merc get all that right, including being reliable, then they could find themselves at a huge advantage for a while until the other catch up. Then however, they'll be back to square one again a la DDD in 2009.

All in all the uncertainty is certainly going to make the pre season of 2014 the best since 2009 by a long way!

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Well they did do the same think last year so they could be the same again. And welcome btw

Not to worry,as bad as Mercedes are ,they have Lewis in their team for next year..,so regardless how bad the car is he will get in it and wring out at least half a sec to 0.800 more out of it

On a more positive note..i think there is very little hope for this team next year...sorry

I think Mercedes have unquestionably written off this year's car, but I don't think they will have a good car for next year.

IMO they don't have a fundamentally good base chassis. Since 2010 the car has had the same problems with overworking the tyres. I've had a few conversations with a friend about the fact that they have gone for a shorter wheelbase, which leaves less scope for aerodynamic development. As the regulations have been relatively stable and it's about evolution, I think they're stuck with that problem; if they could have resolved it they would have in 2011 or certainly by 2012 and even if they could now resolve it I can't see them investing to come up with something entirely new for 2013, which is the final year under these regulations. IMO them trying out specific gimmicks, such as the DDRS this year has been a bandaid approach - hoping that they'll come up with something that will compensate for the poor chassis by giving them a significant advantage in another area.

I think they are heavily focusing on 2014. IMO their relative performance there will depend on a few things. I do anticipate them having the best power unit and energy recovery systems because that is their forte and where they have shone. It was mentioned by Laura23 that the last time they developed new power units they weren't reliable in 2005 and 2006, but there is equally a point to be made that those engines were on Newey cars and his tight packaging may have negatively influenced cooling; I also recall hearing that a number of the failures were not due to the engine itself but due to peripheral parts that had been chosen for their lightness rather than their durability. I think the engine and energy recovery systems could very well have a significant impact if other engine manufacturers and teams struggle to put something together, particularly given the homologation requirements at the beginning of the season.

I do question whether they have a good chassis design team. IMO it's clear from the past few years that that team is not capable of building a fundamentally good car or resolving the issues with the existing one. They've invested heavily, but I'm unsure at this point as to whether they've targeted the right people in that area and whether those people are good enough. For example, Aldo Costa is one, but I'm still in two minds as to how capable he is. But beyond that it also depends on the influence that aerodynamics has from 2014 onwards. From memory Brawn as Technical Director of Ferrari didn't focus on hiring top aero people but on people who were good mechanical engineers. It worked back then. Of course they had Byrne as their Chief Designer, but I would never have called him an aero-guru. It may be that it is this period of regulations that promote aero to the top of the heap and this may become less significant moving forwards so although Mercedes may not have hired top aero people they might have hired the right people for the regulations for 2014, or at least people who can work with those regulations.

There's also a team structural element to this. Mercedes have been investing heavily in reorganising the management and team structure and in sorting out their facilities. This may have been having a destabilising effect on the team and curtailing development; whether it has a positive impact into the future remains to be seen.

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Formerly kai_

I doubt lewis will bring any improvement to the team. In mclaren, lewis got all the stuff taken care of with best simulator and engineers. he could went out on the best available setup.

In merc?? many decision has to be made by driver because the data bank of merc are full of failures and not usable.

remain to be seen how he fares in merc next season.

Mercedes is one of the teams that will have to do fundamental changes to their car thanks to ban on DDRS (their implementation).
So it is significant change to their chassis. So they can test some small parts on this car, but their new car will be significantly different and basically a new version rather than gradual evolution.
So they probably have written off this year at this stage knowing ban on DDRS.

I think if Merc can make atleast 3rd or fourth fastest car but, very reliable like a Lotus or a ferrari we will see Lewis in a strong position....

Anyone who thinks Mercedes will have a good car next year (top three) is deluded.

The car regulations are almost identical for next year, apart from the removal of ddrs (which affects Merc more than the other teams) and a new nose cover to avoid the ugly step. This means regulations are extremely stable and whoever has a good car this year will have a good car next year.

It's therefore a massive ask for Mercedes to bring a better car than Lotus and Sauber. They will struggle to get fourth in the constructor's championship next year (although I hope I eat my own words!)

Reminds me of Pinky

Sorry but that's bullcrap. Apart from the fact Merc's simulator is very highly regarded you seem to be suggesting that Lewis has no idea how to set up a car on his own and had everything done for him at Mclaren.

If there was actually any evidence to back this up I'd be fascinated to see it...

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Very good, informative posts from Blinky and Laura.

No team ever knows before a season starts whether their car will be good or not. Historical record of manufacturer means little. Its what happens after pre-season testing that tells all.

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http://grandprixratings.blogspot.com

Is there any doubt that Merc have written off their car this year? But as others have pointed out, they've done this for the past 3 years before the end of the season to concentrate on next year's car....

It seems unlikely that next year's car will be any better (as they still seem to have no 'handle' on the tyres) - but we won't know until a few races in next year.

All we do know is that the Merc has been getting worse for the previous few races this season. Schumi may have qualified reasonably well in the US, but went backwards throughout the race. Nico qualified extremely badly, and didn't really improve his position in the race....

+1

I dont think they are hiding anything for next year, unless Brawn does something special - aka 2009. The car will be just another dog with the same old excuse. This year they admitted to developing something which didnt work - one being the DDRS. Which everyone has just given up on.

Well does Lewis go out with the spanners and do the work himself? No he has that done for him.

does the driver say "Ah throw on a few more minutes of toe in" When he gets out of the car.

No the engineers listen to what he says (Or in the case of JB, moans) takes that information on board, dissect it, analyse it , then decide on what changes to make. Sure with experience a driver might suggest a bit of extra wing or whatever . But for the most part it's the engineers doing the setting up.

What we don't know is how much Lewis has been involved. He's only been with Macca so they as a team have learnt each other idiosyncrasies . Something not to be underestimated. We as outsiders don't know if Lewis even has a rough idea of his preferred baseline generic set up to suit his style, something Macca would have mountains of information on before he even got his race drive. It could be McLaren know him well enough from day one they know where to aim for his baseline which he doesn't know. From there in on they know how to induce the traits he wants from translating his feedback. How ever does he know what changes the team makes when he asks for certain things?

As outsiders we simply do not know. We don't know how well Lewis and indeed Merc will cope with each other. Lewis could be so ingrained in the McLaren way (remember only F1 team he's worked with) that the relationship has been so symbiotic that his feedback won't transfer as naturally as at Macca.

Time will only tell.

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Disclaimer: The above post maybe tongue in cheek.

"I thought I'd get your theories, mock them, then embrace my own. The usual."

Kai, Laura, Blinky, nice posts.

Posts like these make me come back to the forum. Thank you

It may be splitting hair, but that does not make it any less relevant, How do they know if they have a good car without testing it?

Even then it would not be taking into consideration which tyres it will be on next year.

I think it quite possible, or even probable, they are no longer developing this car specifically, but next years are supposedly going to be so similar that any advance they find would be relevant to this car. The small cost of manufacturing the component would hardly rule it out for at least the practice sessions

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I thought that next year's car will be quite different anyway, in that it will not have the Double DRS. It is too early to say if they're going to be competitive. Most likely not, as pointed above

Yeh, no doubt most of next years cars will be different, but I mean any work done or tweeks they find would still be applicable to this years

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I find television very educating. Every time somebody turns on the set, I go into the other room and read a book.

Marx (Groucho)

it looks to me that they will still be a year behind in finding the speed in their cars, you have to assume every team will be faster next year.
so i can see the most likely time they will make a big step up ( if they do ? ) will be 2014

The car 2012 car is based around a system that is banned next year and does bugger all. It didn't give them the advantage they had hoped to see in qually, which isn't as important with DRS compared to the processional years before, and they made compromises elsewhere to fit the system. They've been working on next years car for a while. That said, there is no huge regulation changes next year so next year's cars are evolution, Merc are kind of a year behind but no doubt working their butts off.

Brawn admitted that their DDRS solution was a dead end and they spent too much time going down that blind alley. It limited the majority of the changes they could make to the front wing as the DDRS stalling would not work with most configurations.

All they need to do next year is not go for gimics, provide their drivers a well balanced car, that has a great engine, kers system and the standard DRS and then evolve that throughout the season. This will see them come top 4 or 5 dependant on how great the driver combination is.

If you look at the Red Bull its evolution is very impressive but it took them months to get there. So a message to mercedes, be patient and dont design your cars around a loop hole that could get closed up, design your cars around a base model and then add loop holes without affecting the base design,

They are in big trouble, no doubt about it.

They completely can't get a grip on the tyres and resorted to running two different cars in US to try and figure out what's going on - this can't be a good sign, especially considering both left the US pointless.

I completely don't buy into the 'we're concentrating in next years car' line - Merc have had the same problem with the tyres since their existence in modern F1. Unfortunately Lewis will not be able to solve these problems - Merc need to sort themselves out.

given that the merc engine is one of the best, and the associated Kers - it is hard to see how merc can have such a bad start to 2013. They will presumably redesign the car without ddrs, and I suspect, we will see the top teams pretty close (unless RBR come up with some further 'new' interpretation of rules!). I certainly don't think there will be a runaway pace setter (unless Newey excels himself!) and they have all learnt about the tyres this year, etc - so in real terms, I think the pace will be fairly close. The only positive I can see for Hamilton, is that if he does have a 2 or 3 tenths 'driver' advantage - that could be quite significant and helpful in getting the merc 'up there' amongst similar paced cars. Only time will tell - but if he does outperform the car, it would be more likely that Merc will be happier to push/invest more - rather than have the results they have had for the last 3 years! It could be a nice snowball effect - but that is probably daydreaming! Nevertheless, Merc do need to perform or the plug will undoubtedly be pulled.
I don't have a clue why Hamilton quit Macca - I certainly don't think it was just about money/conditions - I think he simply felt he had nothing to lose. Macca under MW have done squat, and are too feeble in their determination to succeed. Whatever Brawn said to LH - it must have been enough to give him the promise/encouragement of better things? (though attached to a nice paycheck of course!)
I am kind of looking forward to 2013 just to see what happens - whether it is good or bad for Merc - it will probably be quite interesting to observe. Take JB and Brawn - he had a super car relative to the others - and by the seasons end they had failed to 'advance' it and had been overhauled by other teams. Was that Brawns failing? or JB's lack of ability in the car improvement/development stakes (he has struggled at Macca too!). I'm hoping we see Merc with a semi-decent start, and Hamilton pushing them in the right direction - i,e, forwards! but we will see........

Im wondering If Hamilton is planning to retire after the Merc Venture - be it victory or not.