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Who will end their career with the most wins?
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Author:  pokerman [ Sat Oct 13, 2018 11:57 am ]
Post subject:  Re: Who will end their career with the most wins?

DOLOMITE wrote:
pokerman wrote:
Retirement age 39, I'm not sure Hamilton will be around that long, Schumacher retired when he was 37, that would have been a more interesting comparitor given it's Schumaher's record that's being chased?


as you wish...

1. Hamilton = 92
2. Schumacher = 91
3. Vettel = 80
4. Prost = 51
5. Senna = 41
6. Alonso = 32
7. Mansell = 31
8. Stewart = 27
9. Clark = 25
9. Lauda = 25
11. Fangio = 24
12. Raikkonen = 23
13. Piquet = 23
13. Rosberg (N) = 23
15. Hill (D) = 22
16. Verstappen (M) = 21
17. Hakkinen = 20
18. Moss = 16
19. Button = 15
20. Ricciardo = 14


Adjusted to reflect the fact we know Alonso has only 4 races left and to assume Raikkonen has 44.

Cheers I think that is perhaps more practicable and shows it's within reach but perhaps not a given.

Author:  Noni [ Sun Oct 14, 2018 7:29 pm ]
Post subject:  Re: Who will end their career with the most wins?

DOLOMITE wrote:
pokerman wrote:
Retirement age 39, I'm not sure Hamilton will be around that long, Schumacher retired when he was 37, that would have been a more interesting comparitor given it's Schumaher's record that's being chased?


as you wish...

1. Hamilton = 92
2. Schumacher = 91
3. Vettel = 80
4. Prost = 51
5. Senna = 41
6. Alonso = 32
7. Mansell = 31
8. Stewart = 27
9. Clark = 25
9. Lauda = 25
11. Fangio = 24
12. Raikkonen = 23
13. Piquet = 23
13. Rosberg (N) = 23
15. Hill (D) = 22
16. Verstappen (M) = 21
17. Hakkinen = 20
18. Moss = 16
19. Button = 15
20. Ricciardo = 14


Adjusted to reflect the fact we know Alonso has only 4 races left and to assume Raikkonen has 44.


1. Hamilton = 111
2. Schumacher = 91
3. Vettel = 65
4. Prost = 51
5. Senna = 41
6. Alonso = 32
7. Mansell = 31
8. Stewart = 27
9. Clark = 25
9. Lauda = 25
11. Fangio = 24
12. Raikkonen = 23
13. Piquet = 23
13. Rosberg (N) = 23
15. Hill (D) = 22
16. Verstappen (M) = 21
17. Hakkinen = 20
18. Moss = 16
19. Button = 15
20. Ricciardo = 14

Author:  DOLOMITE [ Tue May 28, 2019 11:49 pm ]
Post subject:  Re: Who will end their career with the most wins?

**bump**!!

After Monaco 2019

1. Hamilton = 94
2. Schumacher = 91
3. Vettel = 76
4. Prost = 51
5. Senna = 41
6. Alonso = 32
7. Mansell = 31
8. Stewart = 27
9. Clark = 25
9. Lauda = 25
11. Fangio = 24
12. Piquet = 23
12. Rosberg (N) = 23
14. Raikkonen = 23
15. Verstappen (M) = 23
16. Hill (D) = 22
17. Hakkinen = 20
18. Moss = 16
19. Button = 15
20. Brabham = 14
20. Fittipaldi = 14
20. Hill (G) = 14
23. Ricciardo = 13
24. Ascari = 13
24. Coulthard = 13
26. Jones = 12
26. Andretti = 12
26. Reutemann = 12
29. Villeneuve (J) = 11
29. Massa = 11
29. Barrichello = 11
32. Bottas = 11

Author:  Exediron [ Wed May 29, 2019 12:01 am ]
Post subject:  Re: Who will end their career with the most wins?

DOLOMITE wrote:
After Monaco 2019

1. Hamilton = 94
2. Schumacher = 91
3. Vettel = 76

Who would have believed -- back when you made this thread in 2014 -- that Hamilton's number here is probably not only realistic, but potentially a low-ball estimate?

Certainly not me. How the times have changed.

Author:  pokerman [ Wed May 29, 2019 12:31 am ]
Post subject:  Re: Who will end their career with the most wins?

Exediron wrote:
DOLOMITE wrote:
After Monaco 2019

1. Hamilton = 94
2. Schumacher = 91
3. Vettel = 76

Who would have believed -- back when you made this thread in 2014 -- that Hamilton's number here is probably not only realistic, but potentially a low-ball estimate?

Certainly not me. How the times have changed.

Yeah I can see him passing 100 wins, the like for like comparison takes him to the end of 2022 I believe?

So that's about 80 races to win 23 races a strike rate of about 30% when he's been batting at around 50% these past few years which he seems set to continue this year and possible next year as well given there are no rule changes, he could have 93 wins by the end of the 2020 season?

Author:  Black_Flag_11 [ Wed May 29, 2019 7:41 am ]
Post subject:  Re: Who will end their career with the most wins?

Exediron wrote:
DOLOMITE wrote:
After Monaco 2019

1. Hamilton = 94
2. Schumacher = 91
3. Vettel = 76

Who would have believed -- back when you made this thread in 2014 -- that Hamilton's number here is probably not only realistic, but potentially a low-ball estimate?

Certainly not me. How the times have changed.

Before the dark times. Before the empire.

Author:  Zoue [ Wed May 29, 2019 8:08 am ]
Post subject:  Re: Who will end their career with the most wins?

Black_Flag_11 wrote:
Exediron wrote:
DOLOMITE wrote:
After Monaco 2019

1. Hamilton = 94
2. Schumacher = 91
3. Vettel = 76

Who would have believed -- back when you made this thread in 2014 -- that Hamilton's number here is probably not only realistic, but potentially a low-ball estimate?

Certainly not me. How the times have changed.

Before the dark times. Before the empire.

:lol:

Author:  DOLOMITE [ Wed May 29, 2019 12:26 pm ]
Post subject:  Re: Who will end their career with the most wins?

sandman1347 wrote:
The main thing is that Hamilton is in the early stages of a period of domination. I see him likely surpassing Prost for second on the all-time list by next season. Will he end his career with more wins than Vettel? Hard to say. The future is not clear but the present certainly is. 2017 is the earliest realistic timeframe for Lewis to find himself in a car that is not top-shelf and even that is unlikely with the engines staying the same.

One thing is clear; Lewis is in the midst of the biggest purple patch he'll ever see in F1. Much Like Schumacher with Ferrari from 2000-2004 or Vettel with Red Bull from 2010-2013, Hamilton is going to do the lion's share of his damage between 2014 and whenever Merc are finally knocked off the mountain-top.


Now if you could just IM me next weeks lottery numbers sandman that would be great....

Author:  Lt. Drebin [ Sun Jun 02, 2019 11:19 am ]
Post subject:  Re: Who will end their career with the most wins?

The one that drives Mercedes.

Author:  Alienturnedhuman [ Sun Jun 02, 2019 11:47 am ]
Post subject:  Re: Who will end their career with the most wins?

Exediron wrote:
DOLOMITE wrote:
After Monaco 2019

1. Hamilton = 94
2. Schumacher = 91
3. Vettel = 76

Who would have believed -- back when you made this thread in 2014 -- that Hamilton's number here is probably not only realistic, but potentially a low-ball estimate?

Certainly not me. How the times have changed.

Two thirds of Hamilton's wins have occurred since this poll started. Three quarters of Vettel's wins occured before this poll started. And Alonso's tally did not change.

Here's an interesting statistic. When Schumacher won his 91st race, it was a 866th F1 championship race. That meant He had won 10.5% of F1 races at that point. (it's possible he reached a higher percentage earlier in his career but after his last win in 2004, it was 10% exactly, 83 wins out of 830 races, so I think China 2006 was his highest percentage)

With 77 out of 1003 races, Hamilton is at 7.7% of F1 races. Could he ever exceed Schumacher's percentage? The earliest he could do it in 32 races (so winning all of them) to give him 109 / 1035 race = 10.53% vx 10.51% - but that's very unlikely. If he wins at 50% rate, he will need 72 races to exceed it, 113 wins from 1075 races (10.511% vs 10.508%) - this is more achievable, but I would still say unlikely as it's a 50% win rate to the end of 2022 and it's unlikely Mercedes will have 9 years of domination.

If someone is interested they can go back and check what the win percentages were of other top drivers in the past, although I suspect this is a harder statistic to excel at as time goes on, as the race calendar would need to grow exponentially for it to be fair, so when Fangio was winning a lot he didn't have a 50 years of previous races to share.

Author:  Johnson [ Sun Jun 02, 2019 5:43 pm ]
Post subject:  Re: Who will end their career with the most wins?

Ascari and Fangio will easily dominate that statistic, Fangio had 24 wins from first 62 races when he stopped. A rookie could win his first 500 races and not match that.

Author:  Option or Prime [ Mon Jun 03, 2019 3:10 pm ]
Post subject:  Re: Who will end their career with the most wins?

If Lewis Hamilton follows through on his statement today that he intends to continue for another 5 years then he will break MS's record and some!

https://www.bbc.co.uk/sport/formula1/48498666

Author:  pokerman [ Mon Jun 03, 2019 4:16 pm ]
Post subject:  Re: Who will end their career with the most wins?

Option or Prime wrote:
If Lewis Hamilton follows through on his statement today that he intends to continue for another 5 years then he will break MS's record and some!

https://www.bbc.co.uk/sport/formula1/48498666

I don't believe that's a recent statement by Hamilton, he's 34 now, I believe he said that last December?

Author:  Option or Prime [ Mon Jun 03, 2019 4:38 pm ]
Post subject:  Re: Who will end their career with the most wins?

Its all a bit odd if you look closer, the article quotes "my next guest needs no introduction" with David Letterman which is previewed here, dated 29th May, https://www.motor1.com/news/352089/watch-lewis-hamilton-terrify-letterman/

Yet as you say he states he is 33 which would imply last year.

Author:  mikeyg123 [ Mon Jun 03, 2019 7:04 pm ]
Post subject:  Re: Who will end their career with the most wins?

Option or Prime wrote:
Its all a bit odd if you look closer, the article quotes "my next guest needs no introduction" with David Letterman which is previewed here, dated 29th May, https://www.motor1.com/news/352089/watch-lewis-hamilton-terrify-letterman/

Yet as you say he states he is 33 which would imply last year.


Perhaps it was filmed last year?

Author:  sandman1347 [ Mon Jun 03, 2019 7:35 pm ]
Post subject:  Re: Who will end their career with the most wins?

DOLOMITE wrote:
sandman1347 wrote:
The main thing is that Hamilton is in the early stages of a period of domination. I see him likely surpassing Prost for second on the all-time list by next season. Will he end his career with more wins than Vettel? Hard to say. The future is not clear but the present certainly is. 2017 is the earliest realistic timeframe for Lewis to find himself in a car that is not top-shelf and even that is unlikely with the engines staying the same.

One thing is clear; Lewis is in the midst of the biggest purple patch he'll ever see in F1. Much Like Schumacher with Ferrari from 2000-2004 or Vettel with Red Bull from 2010-2013, Hamilton is going to do the lion's share of his damage between 2014 and whenever Merc are finally knocked off the mountain-top.


Now if you could just IM me next weeks lottery numbers sandman that would be great....

Ha! I have to admit that what he has accomplished since then dwarfs even the high end of what I thought was likely to happen. Especially if he wins another title this year (which he is certainly the favorite to do).

The real question I find myself asking is; who will knock Hamilton off of the mountain top and when? Even looking at next year; barring a dramatic turnaround this season; it's hard to pick anyone but Hamilton for the WDC. Even with radical changes to the rules in 2021, would you bet on anyone other than Mercedes to get it spot on? I wouldn't. Maybe Red Bull/Honda will steal the march but I think the Mercedes organization is bulletproof in their preparation, resources and culture. They are just winners and they secured the best driver of a generation just as he was entering the prime of his career.

Author:  Option or Prime [ Mon Jun 03, 2019 8:08 pm ]
Post subject:  Re: Who will end their career with the most wins?

I think thats a decent point, add to that the fact that whilst Ferrari and Red Bull might get it right for a season you could see Mercedes throwing its full weight behind getting it back the following season.
I'm not sure the engine changes are different enough to result in a new dominant PU supplier. Though the aero changes could level the playing field a bit towards Red Bull. Time will tell.

Author:  shoot999 [ Mon Jun 03, 2019 8:30 pm ]
Post subject:  Re: Who will end their career with the most wins?

mikeyg123 wrote:
Option or Prime wrote:
Its all a bit odd if you look closer, the article quotes "my next guest needs no introduction" with David Letterman which is previewed here, dated 29th May, https://www.motor1.com/news/352089/watch-lewis-hamilton-terrify-letterman/

Yet as you say he states he is 33 which would imply last year.


Perhaps it was filmed last year?


I would think so. The pre-recorded televised interview mentions a Mercedes that Letterman got rid of, then in a
filler taken with both of them at the Mercedes Silverstone launch at the beginning of Feb that previous conversation is referenced. So interviewed just before his 34 birthday I would guess.

Author:  DOLOMITE [ Mon Jun 03, 2019 9:36 pm ]
Post subject:  Re: Who will end their career with the most wins?

Option or Prime wrote:
If Lewis Hamilton follows through on his statement today that he intends to continue for another 5 years then he will break MS's record and some!

https://www.bbc.co.uk/sport/formula1/48498666


if he maintains his current wins/start ratio for the rest of his career, his wins at retirement would be

36:87
37:94
38:101
39:107

Author:  pokerman [ Mon Jun 03, 2019 10:17 pm ]
Post subject:  Re: Who will end their career with the most wins?

DOLOMITE wrote:
Option or Prime wrote:
If Lewis Hamilton follows through on his statement today that he intends to continue for another 5 years then he will break MS's record and some!

https://www.bbc.co.uk/sport/formula1/48498666


if he maintains his current wins/start ratio for the rest of his career, his wins at retirement would be

36:87
37:94
38:101
39:107

Surely you've missed a year out there he currently is 34:77, also it's doubtful he will only win 3 out of the last 15 races for a yearly 7 win ratio.

I think 10 wins this year is not unreasonably so by the end of the year that would make it 34:83 then going forward with the 7 win yearly average you would have:-

35:90
36:97
37:104
38:111
39:118

Author:  DOLOMITE [ Mon Jun 10, 2019 9:26 pm ]
Post subject:  Re: Who will end their career with the most wins?

After Canada 2019

(Retire at 37, 20 races/season)

1. Hamilton = 95
2. Schumacher = 91
3. Vettel = 75
4. Prost = 51
5. Senna = 41
6. Alonso = 32
7. Mansell = 31
8. Stewart = 27
9. Lauda = 25
9. Clark = 25


Of the active drivers who have won at least 1 races:
1. Hamilton = 95
3. Vettel = 75
12. Raikkonen = 24
15. Verstappen (M) = 22
23. Ricciardo = 13
32. Bottas = 11

Author:  DOLOMITE [ Tue Jul 16, 2019 9:46 pm ]
Post subject:  Re: Who will end their career with the most wins?

After British GP 2019

1. Hamilton = 97
2. Schumacher = 91
3. Vettel = 74
4. Prost = 51
5. Senna = 41
6. Alonso = 32
7. Mansell = 31
8. Stewart = 27
9. Verstappen (M) = 26
10. Clark = 25
10. Lauda = 25
13. Raikkonen = 24
14. Piquet = 23
14. Rosberg (N) = 23
16. Hill (D) = 22
17. Hakkinen = 20
18. Moss = 16
19. Button = 15
20. Brabham = 14
20. Fittipaldi = 14
20. Hill (G) = 14
23. Ricciardo = 13
24. Ascari = 13
24. Coulthard = 13
26. Andretti = 12
26. Jones = 12
26. Reutemann = 12
29. Barrichello = 11
29. Massa = 11
29. Villeneuve (J) = 11
32. Bottas = 11

Author:  Option or Prime [ Tue Jul 16, 2019 9:57 pm ]
Post subject:  Re: Who will end their career with the most wins?

Vettel has 52 wins currently, how come he is showing 74 after British GP 2019?

Author:  Exediron [ Tue Jul 16, 2019 11:23 pm ]
Post subject:  Re: Who will end their career with the most wins?

Option or Prime wrote:
Vettel has 52 wins currently, how come he is showing 74 after British GP 2019?

It's based on taking their win rate and projecting that onto their careers. It's not very reliable for drivers whose best is already behind them - Alonso kept projecting as getting more wins right up until he retired.

Author:  DOLOMITE [ Tue Jul 16, 2019 11:28 pm ]
Post subject:  Re: Who will end their career with the most wins?

Exediron wrote:
Option or Prime wrote:
Vettel has 52 wins currently, how come he is showing 74 after British GP 2019?

It's based on taking their win rate and projecting that onto their careers. It's not very reliable for drivers whose best is already behind them - Alonso kept projecting as getting more wins right up until he retired.


This is true but it also takes their "decline" into account, look how Vettels predicted count has dropped over time.

From the first attempt July 2014!:

DOLOMITE wrote:
OK a quick and pointless extrapolation exercise

Assumes
all 3 continue winning at the same rate they have done to date in their careers (i.e % of wins from starts)
all 3 retire age 36
all seasons have 19 races

They'd end up with

Vettel = 90
Hamilton = 53
Alonso = 40

Author:  Option or Prime [ Tue Jul 16, 2019 11:39 pm ]
Post subject:  Re: Who will end their career with the most wins?

OK, I get it now, makes more sense.

Author:  Alienturnedhuman [ Wed Jul 17, 2019 1:28 am ]
Post subject:  Re: Who will end their career with the most wins?

DOLOMITE wrote:
Exediron wrote:
Option or Prime wrote:
Vettel has 52 wins currently, how come he is showing 74 after British GP 2019?

It's based on taking their win rate and projecting that onto their careers. It's not very reliable for drivers whose best is already behind them - Alonso kept projecting as getting more wins right up until he retired.


This is true but it also takes their "decline" into account, look how Vettels predicted count has dropped over time.

From the first attempt July 2014!:

DOLOMITE wrote:
OK a quick and pointless extrapolation exercise

Assumes
all 3 continue winning at the same rate they have done to date in their careers (i.e % of wins from starts)
all 3 retire age 36
all seasons have 19 races

They'd end up with

Vettel = 90
Hamilton = 53
Alonso = 40

I have had a thought - and obviously I know that no system is ever going to be accurate, these are just fun models - but one thing this system does fall down on is that a driver's win rate for a year depends on how good the car is. So each season will have a win rate locked in.

Therefore, I am going to suggest the following system as an alternate - just for curiosity:

Find the median number of race wins a year, and extrapolate based on that. (A more advanced version could even take the win rate of the team, and multiply it by the driver's average proportion of wins for their team)

These systems will still fall foul of the same problem (that as Hamilton has more seasons in the Merc his win rate will go up, and Vettel's will go down as he has less in the Red Bull) but I'm curious as to how they will affect the overall stats over time. I don't have time to do it right now, but if I don't forget, I'll model it up later.

Author:  Option or Prime [ Wed Jul 17, 2019 7:43 am ]
Post subject:  Re: Who will end their career with the most wins?

Thanks for picking up that ball, I had thought about mentioning it but didn't feel able to comment not having a global understanding of how it worked. I can see some alteration of the model is needed since a difference of about 30% between estimated and actual is quite a big one.

Seems ATH is ahead of the game on that one!

Author:  DOLOMITE [ Wed Jul 17, 2019 10:59 am ]
Post subject:  Re: Who will end their career with the most wins?

Alienturnedhuman wrote:
DOLOMITE wrote:
Exediron wrote:
Option or Prime wrote:
Vettel has 52 wins currently, how come he is showing 74 after British GP 2019?

It's based on taking their win rate and projecting that onto their careers. It's not very reliable for drivers whose best is already behind them - Alonso kept projecting as getting more wins right up until he retired.


This is true but it also takes their "decline" into account, look how Vettels predicted count has dropped over time.

From the first attempt July 2014!:

DOLOMITE wrote:
OK a quick and pointless extrapolation exercise

Assumes
all 3 continue winning at the same rate they have done to date in their careers (i.e % of wins from starts)
all 3 retire age 36
all seasons have 19 races

They'd end up with

Vettel = 90
Hamilton = 53
Alonso = 40

I have had a thought - and obviously I know that no system is ever going to be accurate, these are just fun models - but one thing this system does fall down on is that a driver's win rate for a year depends on how good the car is. So each season will have a win rate locked in.

Therefore, I am going to suggest the following system as an alternate - just for curiosity:

Find the median number of race wins a year, and extrapolate based on that. (A more advanced version could even take the win rate of the team, and multiply it by the driver's average proportion of wins for their team)

These systems will still fall foul of the same problem (that as Hamilton has more seasons in the Merc his win rate will go up, and Vettel's will go down as he has less in the Red Bull) but I'm curious as to how they will affect the overall stats over time. I don't have time to do it right now, but if I don't forget, I'll model it up later.


The calculation isn't done on a wins/year calculation though, it's literally wins from starts so the ratio is recalculated after every race. Also a win rate from this year doesn't really predict a win rate for the following.

As an approach though you could have a rolling total so win from starts based on say last 20 races. Now that I've written that, is that what you actually meant?..

Author:  shoot999 [ Wed Jul 17, 2019 11:29 am ]
Post subject:  Re: Who will end their career with the most wins?

DOLOMITE wrote:
Alienturnedhuman wrote:
DOLOMITE wrote:
Exediron wrote:
Option or Prime wrote:
Vettel has 52 wins currently, how come he is showing 74 after British GP 2019?

It's based on taking their win rate and projecting that onto their careers. It's not very reliable for drivers whose best is already behind them - Alonso kept projecting as getting more wins right up until he retired.


This is true but it also takes their "decline" into account, look how Vettels predicted count has dropped over time.

From the first attempt July 2014!:

DOLOMITE wrote:
OK a quick and pointless extrapolation exercise

Assumes
all 3 continue winning at the same rate they have done to date in their careers (i.e % of wins from starts)
all 3 retire age 36
all seasons have 19 races

They'd end up with

Vettel = 90
Hamilton = 53
Alonso = 40

I have had a thought - and obviously I know that no system is ever going to be accurate, these are just fun models - but one thing this system does fall down on is that a driver's win rate for a year depends on how good the car is. So each season will have a win rate locked in.

Therefore, I am going to suggest the following system as an alternate - just for curiosity:

Find the median number of race wins a year, and extrapolate based on that. (A more advanced version could even take the win rate of the team, and multiply it by the driver's average proportion of wins for their team)

These systems will still fall foul of the same problem (that as Hamilton has more seasons in the Merc his win rate will go up, and Vettel's will go down as he has less in the Red Bull) but I'm curious as to how they will affect the overall stats over time. I don't have time to do it right now, but if I don't forget, I'll model it up later.


The calculation isn't done on a wins/year calculation though, it's literally wins from starts so the ratio is recalculated after every race. Also a win rate from this year doesn't really predict a win rate for the following.

As an approach though you could have a rolling total so win from starts based on say last 20 races. Now that I've written that, is that what you actually meant?..


So for example over the last year-Germany to now- Hamilton would be on roughly 70% and Seb 0% 8O

Author:  Johnson [ Wed Jul 17, 2019 2:24 pm ]
Post subject:  Re: Who will end their career with the most wins?

Option or Prime wrote:
Thanks for picking up that ball, I had thought about mentioning it but didn't feel able to comment not having a global understanding of how it worked. I can see some alteration of the model is needed since a difference of about 30% between estimated and actual is quite a big one.

Seems ATH is ahead of the game on that one!


The model is a predictor... the earlier a driver is into their career the bigger the disparity between the actual and predicted figure. Naturally these two figures will be massively different for drivers who aren't close to 37 years old yet.

If a young driver won their first ever race, the model would predict them to win about 300 races. Likewise, Leclerc is predicted to win 0.

Author:  sandman1347 [ Wed Jul 17, 2019 3:54 pm ]
Post subject:  Re: Who will end their career with the most wins?

The interesting thing will be to see where Mercedes are in 2021. It's hard to imagine them falling off considerably for 2020 because the regulations are pretty much stable for next year. 2021 is supposed to be the year where things get shaken up but so was 2017 and so was 2019. If Mercedes continue to stay on top in 2021, Hamilton might end up winning well over 100 races.

Since 2014 he has won 58 races in 5 and 1/2 seasons. That averages out to more than 10 wins per year. This year will likely yield his highest career single season total (he's at 7 from 10 races so far). I think Max and Charles and co. will need to find a way to beat him sooner rather than later or the bar will end up being set too high for them to catch him!

Author:  Flash2k11 [ Wed Jul 17, 2019 4:06 pm ]
Post subject:  Re: Who will end their career with the most wins?

sandman1347 wrote:
The interesting thing will be to see where Mercedes are in 2021. It's hard to imagine them falling off considerably for 2020 because the regulations are pretty much stable for next year. 2021 is supposed to be the year where things get shaken up but so was 2017 and so was 2019. If Mercedes continue to stay on top in 2021, Hamilton might end up winning well over 100 races.

Since 2014 he has won 58 races in 5 and 1/2 seasons. That averages out to more than 10 wins per year. This year will likely yield his highest career single season total (he's at 7 from 10 races so far). I think Max and Charles and co. will need to find a way to beat him sooner rather than later or the bar will end up being set too high for them to catch him!


Yeah, I reckon this is probably going to be the case. Whilst I (and most people, I imagine) could never see Schumacher's win total ever being bettered, I cannot imagine the circumstances that have allowed Hamilton to accrue so many race wins in such a short time ever coming together in F1 for a long, long time. I can only imagine where he'd be already if Rosberg had not been able to fight freely with him.

I honestly thought the 91 wins would stand for at least my lifetime, if Hamilton goes past that, then I really cannot see it going, especially with the age limit on Super Licenses right now.

Author:  Alienturnedhuman [ Wed Jul 17, 2019 4:17 pm ]
Post subject:  Re: Who will end their career with the most wins?

DOLOMITE wrote:
Alienturnedhuman wrote:
DOLOMITE wrote:
Exediron wrote:
Option or Prime wrote:
Vettel has 52 wins currently, how come he is showing 74 after British GP 2019?

It's based on taking their win rate and projecting that onto their careers. It's not very reliable for drivers whose best is already behind them - Alonso kept projecting as getting more wins right up until he retired.


This is true but it also takes their "decline" into account, look how Vettels predicted count has dropped over time.

From the first attempt July 2014!:

DOLOMITE wrote:
OK a quick and pointless extrapolation exercise

Assumes
all 3 continue winning at the same rate they have done to date in their careers (i.e % of wins from starts)
all 3 retire age 36
all seasons have 19 races

They'd end up with

Vettel = 90
Hamilton = 53
Alonso = 40

I have had a thought - and obviously I know that no system is ever going to be accurate, these are just fun models - but one thing this system does fall down on is that a driver's win rate for a year depends on how good the car is. So each season will have a win rate locked in.

Therefore, I am going to suggest the following system as an alternate - just for curiosity:

Find the median number of race wins a year, and extrapolate based on that. (A more advanced version could even take the win rate of the team, and multiply it by the driver's average proportion of wins for their team)

These systems will still fall foul of the same problem (that as Hamilton has more seasons in the Merc his win rate will go up, and Vettel's will go down as he has less in the Red Bull) but I'm curious as to how they will affect the overall stats over time. I don't have time to do it right now, but if I don't forget, I'll model it up later.


The calculation isn't done on a wins/year calculation though, it's literally wins from starts so the ratio is recalculated after every race. Also a win rate from this year doesn't really predict a win rate for the following.

As an approach though you could have a rolling total so win from starts based on say last 20 races. Now that I've written that, is that what you actually meant?..

Well using the last 100 races was one possible model, although any model that doesn't go back further than the start of the hybrids means Hamilton is winning more than 50% of the races he competes in.

I was more trying to come up with a model that reflected the nuance of F1 success. Ie, that generally speaking, a season is locked in for a specific measure of success. Hamilton's win accumulation for the rest of the season is mostly based on the performance of the 2019 car, and not how much he was winning in 2009. It's also based on how often he wins versus his teammate. Hamilton is basically won 2 out of 3 Mercedes wins, and 2/3 McLaren wins - so that can be used as a measure of how many wins he is likely to win if his team wins. Although this should be a average of yearly win ratios rather than a simple sum of all races, as otherwise seasons with higher win rates will count more than ones where there were fewer. This then can produce different predctions based on how successful we predict future seasons to be. Ie, if next season Vettel gets the best car but Hamilton gets a car on the pace of the Red Bull. Or if Hamilton continues to have an all conquerring Mercedes.

Author:  Alienturnedhuman [ Wed Jul 17, 2019 4:22 pm ]
Post subject:  Re: Who will end their career with the most wins?

Flash2k11 wrote:
sandman1347 wrote:
The interesting thing will be to see where Mercedes are in 2021. It's hard to imagine them falling off considerably for 2020 because the regulations are pretty much stable for next year. 2021 is supposed to be the year where things get shaken up but so was 2017 and so was 2019. If Mercedes continue to stay on top in 2021, Hamilton might end up winning well over 100 races.

Since 2014 he has won 58 races in 5 and 1/2 seasons. That averages out to more than 10 wins per year. This year will likely yield his highest career single season total (he's at 7 from 10 races so far). I think Max and Charles and co. will need to find a way to beat him sooner rather than later or the bar will end up being set too high for them to catch him!


Yeah, I reckon this is probably going to be the case. Whilst I (and most people, I imagine) could never see Schumacher's win total ever being bettered, I cannot imagine the circumstances that have allowed Hamilton to accrue so many race wins in such a short time ever coming together in F1 for a long, long time. I can only imagine where he'd be already if Rosberg had not been able to fight freely with him.

I honestly thought the 91 wins would stand for at least my lifetime, if Hamilton goes past that, then I really cannot see it going, especially with the age limit on Super Licenses right now.

We are at a 21 race calendar now, which is 5 more than when Schumacher started his career. Hamilton is going to break 91 wins AFTER the number races that Schumacher first retired after. Max and Charles will race in more races than Hamilton. Max is already at 6 wins and it will still be younger than Hamilton was in his first race after we leave Abu Dhabi. Max has more than enough time to get over 100 race wins.

Author:  Black_Flag_11 [ Wed Jul 17, 2019 4:37 pm ]
Post subject:  Re: Who will end their career with the most wins?

Flash2k11 wrote:
sandman1347 wrote:
The interesting thing will be to see where Mercedes are in 2021. It's hard to imagine them falling off considerably for 2020 because the regulations are pretty much stable for next year. 2021 is supposed to be the year where things get shaken up but so was 2017 and so was 2019. If Mercedes continue to stay on top in 2021, Hamilton might end up winning well over 100 races.

Since 2014 he has won 58 races in 5 and 1/2 seasons. That averages out to more than 10 wins per year. This year will likely yield his highest career single season total (he's at 7 from 10 races so far). I think Max and Charles and co. will need to find a way to beat him sooner rather than later or the bar will end up being set too high for them to catch him!


Yeah, I reckon this is probably going to be the case. Whilst I (and most people, I imagine) could never see Schumacher's win total ever being bettered, I cannot imagine the circumstances that have allowed Hamilton to accrue so many race wins in such a short time ever coming together in F1 for a long, long time. I can only imagine where he'd be already if Rosberg had not been able to fight freely with him.

I honestly thought the 91 wins would stand for at least my lifetime, if Hamilton goes past that, then I really cannot see it going, especially with the age limit on Super Licenses right now.

As ATH says one of the big things is how many more races are on the calendar now than when Schumacher was driving. I think its been floated around that they want to push up to around 25 races per season in the future and with the new owners who knows, we could end up with 2 races on some weekends etc.

Author:  sandman1347 [ Wed Jul 17, 2019 4:59 pm ]
Post subject:  Re: Who will end their career with the most wins?

Black_Flag_11 wrote:
Flash2k11 wrote:
sandman1347 wrote:
The interesting thing will be to see where Mercedes are in 2021. It's hard to imagine them falling off considerably for 2020 because the regulations are pretty much stable for next year. 2021 is supposed to be the year where things get shaken up but so was 2017 and so was 2019. If Mercedes continue to stay on top in 2021, Hamilton might end up winning well over 100 races.

Since 2014 he has won 58 races in 5 and 1/2 seasons. That averages out to more than 10 wins per year. This year will likely yield his highest career single season total (he's at 7 from 10 races so far). I think Max and Charles and co. will need to find a way to beat him sooner rather than later or the bar will end up being set too high for them to catch him!


Yeah, I reckon this is probably going to be the case. Whilst I (and most people, I imagine) could never see Schumacher's win total ever being bettered, I cannot imagine the circumstances that have allowed Hamilton to accrue so many race wins in such a short time ever coming together in F1 for a long, long time. I can only imagine where he'd be already if Rosberg had not been able to fight freely with him.

I honestly thought the 91 wins would stand for at least my lifetime, if Hamilton goes past that, then I really cannot see it going, especially with the age limit on Super Licenses right now.

As ATH says one of the big things is how many more races are on the calendar now than when Schumacher was driving. I think its been floated around that they want to push up to around 25 races per season in the future and with the new owners who knows, we could end up with 2 races on some weekends etc.

25 races would be brutal but it's true that the younger generation will have even more races than Hamilton has. Lewis had only 17 races his rookie year by comparison to Charles and Lando who had 21 races in their first season. The youngsters won't lose out due to not having enough chances.

I think it takes a lot to win such a high number of races and only some of it is actually in the driver's control. Yes you need to deliver but you also need to have the right team around you and the right car underneath you and you need to have that for a sustained period of time.

If Lewis's run at Mercedes proceeds much longer with them still being consistently in the championship fight; it will be an unprecedented run. Will Max or Charles ever have a run of 6-7 years in a row with championship-capable cars (including a few that were dominant)? Hard to say but it's certainly not guaranteed. The implementation of a budget cap and a more equal revenue model might also work against it in the future. Both Ferrari with Michael and Mercedes with Lewis used their superior budget and resources to bully the field to some extent. It looks like F1 is at least trying to move in a direction where that will be harder to do.

Records are made to be broken but we might see a mark established here that will last quite a while.

Author:  Black_Flag_11 [ Wed Jul 17, 2019 5:17 pm ]
Post subject:  Re: Who will end their career with the most wins?

sandman1347 wrote:
Black_Flag_11 wrote:
Flash2k11 wrote:
sandman1347 wrote:
The interesting thing will be to see where Mercedes are in 2021. It's hard to imagine them falling off considerably for 2020 because the regulations are pretty much stable for next year. 2021 is supposed to be the year where things get shaken up but so was 2017 and so was 2019. If Mercedes continue to stay on top in 2021, Hamilton might end up winning well over 100 races.

Since 2014 he has won 58 races in 5 and 1/2 seasons. That averages out to more than 10 wins per year. This year will likely yield his highest career single season total (he's at 7 from 10 races so far). I think Max and Charles and co. will need to find a way to beat him sooner rather than later or the bar will end up being set too high for them to catch him!


Yeah, I reckon this is probably going to be the case. Whilst I (and most people, I imagine) could never see Schumacher's win total ever being bettered, I cannot imagine the circumstances that have allowed Hamilton to accrue so many race wins in such a short time ever coming together in F1 for a long, long time. I can only imagine where he'd be already if Rosberg had not been able to fight freely with him.

I honestly thought the 91 wins would stand for at least my lifetime, if Hamilton goes past that, then I really cannot see it going, especially with the age limit on Super Licenses right now.

As ATH says one of the big things is how many more races are on the calendar now than when Schumacher was driving. I think its been floated around that they want to push up to around 25 races per season in the future and with the new owners who knows, we could end up with 2 races on some weekends etc.

25 races would be brutal but it's true that the younger generation will have even more races than Hamilton has. Lewis had only 17 races his rookie year by comparison to Charles and Lando who had 21 races in their first season. The youngsters won't lose out due to not having enough chances.

I think it takes a lot to win such a high number of races and only some of it is actually in the driver's control. Yes you need to deliver but you also need to have the right team around you and the right car underneath you and you need to have that for a sustained period of time.

If Lewis's run at Mercedes proceeds much longer with them still being consistently in the championship fight; it will be an unprecedented run. Will Max or Charles ever have a run of 6-7 years in a row with championship-capable cars (including a few that were dominant)? Hard to say but it's certainly not guaranteed. The implementation of a budget cap and a more equal revenue model might also work against it in the future. Both Ferrari with Michael and Mercedes with Lewis used their superior budget and resources to bully the field to some extent. It looks like F1 is at least trying to move in a direction where that will be harder to do.

Records are made to be broken but we might see a mark established here that will last quite a while.

Yeah when is the next time we will see a streak of championship dominance like this one? And will a driver like Max who can probably challenge the record be in the team that does it?

A lot will come down to timing and luck but I think the likely increased number of races makes it possible going forward.

Author:  Lotus49 [ Sat Jul 20, 2019 1:23 am ]
Post subject:  Re: Who will end their career with the most wins?

Number of races might help the youngsters but as mentioned the BC won't. If it works as intended and we get a more competitive F1 then those records will stand for all time because it could be so unlikely that a team stays dominant long enough for one driver in the future to benefit to the extent needed to rack up that many stats in short order.

The more we get closer to spec racing the harder it will be to get a sniff on any record set in the pre BC era so it really depends on how successful the BC is in closing the competition up and how far in the future the bosses go in the pursuit of a close field.

If it works like they want then 5 race wins in a year could be an exceptional season and a title win in a field where 5 teams,10 cars and 10 drivers can all compete for the win on any given race weekend so the guy would then need 20 years of repeating that season to get close, it's just very unlikely no matter how good the driver was.

If the BC works to that extent then future F1 fans in say 30+years might consider a pre budget cap F1 in much the same way tennis fans view their Sport in having different defined eras because they are so vastly different. But if it doesn't work and we still get extended periods of domination like Lotus,Ferrari's and Mercedes then yeah the more races and longer careers will help someone get the record eventually.

Author:  Alienturnedhuman [ Sat Jul 20, 2019 6:38 am ]
Post subject:  Re: Who will end their career with the most wins?

Lotus49 wrote:
Number of races might help the youngsters but as mentioned the BC won't. If it works as intended and we get a more competitive F1 then those records will stand for all time because it could be so unlikely that a team stays dominant long enough for one driver in the future to benefit to the extent needed to rack up that many stats in short order.

The more we get closer to spec racing the harder it will be to get a sniff on any record set in the pre BC era so it really depends on how successful the BC is in closing the competition up and how far in the future the bosses go in the pursuit of a close field.

If it works like they want then 5 race wins in a year could be an exceptional season and a title win in a field where 5 teams,10 cars and 10 drivers can all compete for the win on any given race weekend so the guy would then need 20 years of repeating that season to get close, it's just very unlikely no matter how good the driver was.

If the BC works to that extent then future F1 fans in say 30+years might consider a pre budget cap F1 in much the same way tennis fans view their Sport in having different defined eras because they are so vastly different. But if it doesn't work and we still get extended periods of domination like Lotus,Ferrari's and Mercedes then yeah the more races and longer careers will help someone get the record eventually.

The counter to the budget cap argument is that the BC will even the field more and then it will be more driver dependent. Hamilton has won 10 a year in the Merc era, but he was winning small numbers a year during the Red Bull era. At his current win rate, Hamilton will win 100 races before his 280th race, but for the sake of nice maths, we'll say 300. That's a 1 in 3 win rate. That's 7 races in a 21 race calendar and with equal cars I would expect the top drivers to be hitting that.

Max is on 6 races already. With a 21 race calendar until he is 38 - that's 368 races left until he retires (including the 11 this year) - he needs to win 23% of his remaining races to equal Schumacher. 27% to get to 100. Both sound achievable. Not easy, not guaranteed, but far from far-fetched. And that assumes the race calendar doesn't expand further to 25 race seasons, which is very likely.

For the budget cap to get us to seasons with >5 wins being unlikely, it also assumes the budget cap will be a complete leveller - this is also unlikely. I still expect that there will be top teams, it's just that they won't be as dominant as now - that the mid field teams will be able to get on the podium without a fluke, and occasionally steal wins. The best teams will attract the best designers and the best drivers. Driver salaries are not included in the budget cap, and ultimately the top designers in F1 want to win.

It's also worth considering that in the last 30 years of F1, the WDC winning 6 or less races was a rare event. Vettel did it couple of times (2012/2010), Button(2009), Hamilton(2008), and Kimi (2007). We then had Schumacher in 2003, Hakkinen in 1999 and that's it. And it's only been in the last 15 years when the calendar has regularly been above 17 races.

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