planetf1.com

It is currently Thu Sep 19, 2019 4:16 am

All times are UTC


Forum rules


Please read the forum rules



Post new topic Reply to topic

Most wins
Vettel, 39 wins, age 27 51%  51%  [ 112 ]
Alonso, 32 wins, age 33 2%  2%  [ 5 ]
Hamilton, 27 wins, age 29 46%  46%  [ 101 ]
Total votes : 218
Author Message
PostPosted: Sat Jul 20, 2019 10:50 am 
Offline

Joined: Wed Dec 19, 2012 1:30 pm
Posts: 32542
Alienturnedhuman wrote:
Lotus49 wrote:
Number of races might help the youngsters but as mentioned the BC won't. If it works as intended and we get a more competitive F1 then those records will stand for all time because it could be so unlikely that a team stays dominant long enough for one driver in the future to benefit to the extent needed to rack up that many stats in short order.

The more we get closer to spec racing the harder it will be to get a sniff on any record set in the pre BC era so it really depends on how successful the BC is in closing the competition up and how far in the future the bosses go in the pursuit of a close field.

If it works like they want then 5 race wins in a year could be an exceptional season and a title win in a field where 5 teams,10 cars and 10 drivers can all compete for the win on any given race weekend so the guy would then need 20 years of repeating that season to get close, it's just very unlikely no matter how good the driver was.

If the BC works to that extent then future F1 fans in say 30+years might consider a pre budget cap F1 in much the same way tennis fans view their Sport in having different defined eras because they are so vastly different. But if it doesn't work and we still get extended periods of domination like Lotus,Ferrari's and Mercedes then yeah the more races and longer careers will help someone get the record eventually.

The counter to the budget cap argument is that the BC will even the field more and then it will be more driver dependent. Hamilton has won 10 a year in the Merc era, but he was winning small numbers a year during the Red Bull era. At his current win rate, Hamilton will win 100 races before his 280th race, but for the sake of nice maths, we'll say 300. That's a 1 in 3 win rate. That's 7 races in a 21 race calendar and with equal cars I would expect the top drivers to be hitting that.

Max is on 6 races already. With a 21 race calendar until he is 38 - that's 368 races left until he retires (including the 11 this year) - he needs to win 23% of his remaining races to equal Schumacher. 27% to get to 100. Both sound achievable. Not easy, not guaranteed, but far from far-fetched. And that assumes the race calendar doesn't expand further to 25 race seasons, which is very likely.

For the budget cap to get us to seasons with >5 wins being unlikely, it also assumes the budget cap will be a complete leveller - this is also unlikely. I still expect that there will be top teams, it's just that they won't be as dominant as now - that the mid field teams will be able to get on the podium without a fluke, and occasionally steal wins. The best teams will attract the best designers and the best drivers. Driver salaries are not included in the budget cap, and ultimately the top designers in F1 want to win.

It's also worth considering that in the last 30 years of F1, the WDC winning 6 or less races was a rare event. Vettel did it couple of times (2012/2010), Button(2009), Hamilton(2008), and Kimi (2007). We then had Schumacher in 2003, Hakkinen in 1999 and that's it. And it's only been in the last 15 years when the calendar has regularly been above 17 races.

My understanding is that the budget cap may bring the teams closer together but you are still going to have your top teams, the budget cap will not bring things closer to were we have basically spec racing.

_________________
PF1 Pick 10 Competition

2013: 5th Place
2014: Champion
2015: 3rd Place
2016: 4th Place

2017: 9th Place
2018: 7th place
2019: Currently 26th

Wins: Canada 2018, Abu Dhabi 2017
Podiums: (8)


Top
 Profile  
 
PostPosted: Sat Jul 20, 2019 3:44 pm 
Offline

Joined: Sun May 25, 2008 7:55 pm
Posts: 6805
pokerman wrote:
Alienturnedhuman wrote:
Lotus49 wrote:
Number of races might help the youngsters but as mentioned the BC won't. If it works as intended and we get a more competitive F1 then those records will stand for all time because it could be so unlikely that a team stays dominant long enough for one driver in the future to benefit to the extent needed to rack up that many stats in short order.

The more we get closer to spec racing the harder it will be to get a sniff on any record set in the pre BC era so it really depends on how successful the BC is in closing the competition up and how far in the future the bosses go in the pursuit of a close field.

If it works like they want then 5 race wins in a year could be an exceptional season and a title win in a field where 5 teams,10 cars and 10 drivers can all compete for the win on any given race weekend so the guy would then need 20 years of repeating that season to get close, it's just very unlikely no matter how good the driver was.

If the BC works to that extent then future F1 fans in say 30+years might consider a pre budget cap F1 in much the same way tennis fans view their Sport in having different defined eras because they are so vastly different. But if it doesn't work and we still get extended periods of domination like Lotus,Ferrari's and Mercedes then yeah the more races and longer careers will help someone get the record eventually.

The counter to the budget cap argument is that the BC will even the field more and then it will be more driver dependent. Hamilton has won 10 a year in the Merc era, but he was winning small numbers a year during the Red Bull era. At his current win rate, Hamilton will win 100 races before his 280th race, but for the sake of nice maths, we'll say 300. That's a 1 in 3 win rate. That's 7 races in a 21 race calendar and with equal cars I would expect the top drivers to be hitting that.

Max is on 6 races already. With a 21 race calendar until he is 38 - that's 368 races left until he retires (including the 11 this year) - he needs to win 23% of his remaining races to equal Schumacher. 27% to get to 100. Both sound achievable. Not easy, not guaranteed, but far from far-fetched. And that assumes the race calendar doesn't expand further to 25 race seasons, which is very likely.

For the budget cap to get us to seasons with >5 wins being unlikely, it also assumes the budget cap will be a complete leveller - this is also unlikely. I still expect that there will be top teams, it's just that they won't be as dominant as now - that the mid field teams will be able to get on the podium without a fluke, and occasionally steal wins. The best teams will attract the best designers and the best drivers. Driver salaries are not included in the budget cap, and ultimately the top designers in F1 want to win.

It's also worth considering that in the last 30 years of F1, the WDC winning 6 or less races was a rare event. Vettel did it couple of times (2012/2010), Button(2009), Hamilton(2008), and Kimi (2007). We then had Schumacher in 2003, Hakkinen in 1999 and that's it. And it's only been in the last 15 years when the calendar has regularly been above 17 races.

My understanding is that the budget cap may bring the teams closer together but you are still going to have your top teams, the budget cap will not bring things closer to were we have basically spec racing.

That is the most likely and most reasonable expectation. The way I see it, the budget cap will not bring teams like RP and Haas up to par with Mercedes and Ferrari but it will bring teams like McLaren and Renault up to par with Mercedes and Ferrari. That should mean that there is more competition between teams but, as ATH correctly suggested, it will also give drivers greater influence over their own outcomes.

If the cars are more evenly matched and if there is less capacity for the top team to distance itself from the pack, the drivers will have more of a chance to make the difference. The best example of this would be to look at MotoGP. This is a non-spec series with a lot of factory prototype machines competing against each other. The series has achieved a balance though, and the riders are just as important as the bikes. Marc Marquez is currently dominating the series primarily because of his ability as a rider. There is currently a bigger gap between him and the next best rider than there is between the top 2-3 bikes. If F1 could ever become that kind of environment then it would be possible for a driver to rack up huge numbers just on the strength of their own ability; without needing the car to be the best.


Top
 Profile  
 
PostPosted: Sun Jul 21, 2019 3:26 am 
Offline
User avatar

Joined: Sun Jul 28, 2013 3:36 pm
Posts: 5234
Alienturnedhuman wrote:
Lotus49 wrote:
Number of races might help the youngsters but as mentioned the BC won't. If it works as intended and we get a more competitive F1 then those records will stand for all time because it could be so unlikely that a team stays dominant long enough for one driver in the future to benefit to the extent needed to rack up that many stats in short order.

The more we get closer to spec racing the harder it will be to get a sniff on any record set in the pre BC era so it really depends on how successful the BC is in closing the competition up and how far in the future the bosses go in the pursuit of a close field.

If it works like they want then 5 race wins in a year could be an exceptional season and a title win in a field where 5 teams,10 cars and 10 drivers can all compete for the win on any given race weekend so the guy would then need 20 years of repeating that season to get close, it's just very unlikely no matter how good the driver was.

If the BC works to that extent then future F1 fans in say 30+years might consider a pre budget cap F1 in much the same way tennis fans view their Sport in having different defined eras because they are so vastly different. But if it doesn't work and we still get extended periods of domination like Lotus,Ferrari's and Mercedes then yeah the more races and longer careers will help someone get the record eventually.

The counter to the budget cap argument is that the BC will even the field more and then it will be more driver dependent. Hamilton has won 10 a year in the Merc era, but he was winning small numbers a year during the Red Bull era. At his current win rate, Hamilton will win 100 races before his 280th race, but for the sake of nice maths, we'll say 300. That's a 1 in 3 win rate. That's 7 races in a 21 race calendar and with equal cars I would expect the top drivers to be hitting that.

Max is on 6 races already. With a 21 race calendar until he is 38 - that's 368 races left until he retires (including the 11 this year) - he needs to win 23% of his remaining races to equal Schumacher. 27% to get to 100. Both sound achievable. Not easy, not guaranteed, but far from far-fetched. And that assumes the race calendar doesn't expand further to 25 race seasons, which is very likely.

For the budget cap to get us to seasons with >5 wins being unlikely, it also assumes the budget cap will be a complete leveller - this is also unlikely. I still expect that there will be top teams, it's just that they won't be as dominant as now - that the mid field teams will be able to get on the podium without a fluke, and occasionally steal wins. The best teams will attract the best designers and the best drivers. Driver salaries are not included in the budget cap, and ultimately the top designers in F1 want to win.

It's also worth considering that in the last 30 years of F1, the WDC winning 6 or less races was a rare event. Vettel did it couple of times (2012/2010), Button(2009), Hamilton(2008), and Kimi (2007). We then had Schumacher in 2003, Hakkinen in 1999 and that's it. And it's only been in the last 15 years when the calendar has regularly been above 17 races.


Being more driver dependant won't help one driver rack up stats unless it's a particularly week field and he's easily the best though right? Take the last 5 or so years and assume a field where Lewis,Alonso,Max,Dan,Button,Rosberg and Seb were all in cars that could win each weekend and I struggle to see any of them get to 7 because of natural ups and downs in driver form, track weaknesses, a one off special quali from guys out side that list like a Bottas or Hulk even. A star driver in a weak era though and yeah I could see that but it would need a particularly weak era though imo.

I get the point about the effectiveness of the BC though, it would all depend on its actual effectiveness in creating what Brawn and LM want in more close competition and there'll still be the best designers going to the best teams but the teams still shy from putting two top drivers together so if the driver becomes a bigger influence on the overall competitiveness then that should mean more teams end up being competitive too because they're not all in one or two teams.

I've obviously no idea how effective the BC will be though, it was just a hypothetical best case scenario of having at least 5 competitive teams with a star driver in each basically and what impact that could have in any driver setting future records. Without the double figure wins seasons or a particularly weak field I can't see it unless we still have dominant cars that can still absorb the dips in form, mistakes and weak tracks and conditions for even the best driver across a season.

Also just on those seasons where we had less than 6 wins, they were all seasons we had multiple competitive teams so I think that backs up the point that if the BC has the effect they want it too it will be very hard for a driver to win 7 or more in a season.

_________________
"Clark came through at the end of the first lap so far ahead that we in the pits were convinced that the rest of the field must have been wiped out in an accident."
-Eddie Dennis, describing the dominance of Jim Clark in the Lotus 49 at Spa 1967


Top
 Profile  
 
PostPosted: Mon Jul 22, 2019 12:25 pm 
Offline

Joined: Wed Dec 19, 2012 1:30 pm
Posts: 32542
sandman1347 wrote:
pokerman wrote:
Alienturnedhuman wrote:
Lotus49 wrote:
Number of races might help the youngsters but as mentioned the BC won't. If it works as intended and we get a more competitive F1 then those records will stand for all time because it could be so unlikely that a team stays dominant long enough for one driver in the future to benefit to the extent needed to rack up that many stats in short order.

The more we get closer to spec racing the harder it will be to get a sniff on any record set in the pre BC era so it really depends on how successful the BC is in closing the competition up and how far in the future the bosses go in the pursuit of a close field.

If it works like they want then 5 race wins in a year could be an exceptional season and a title win in a field where 5 teams,10 cars and 10 drivers can all compete for the win on any given race weekend so the guy would then need 20 years of repeating that season to get close, it's just very unlikely no matter how good the driver was.

If the BC works to that extent then future F1 fans in say 30+years might consider a pre budget cap F1 in much the same way tennis fans view their Sport in having different defined eras because they are so vastly different. But if it doesn't work and we still get extended periods of domination like Lotus,Ferrari's and Mercedes then yeah the more races and longer careers will help someone get the record eventually.

The counter to the budget cap argument is that the BC will even the field more and then it will be more driver dependent. Hamilton has won 10 a year in the Merc era, but he was winning small numbers a year during the Red Bull era. At his current win rate, Hamilton will win 100 races before his 280th race, but for the sake of nice maths, we'll say 300. That's a 1 in 3 win rate. That's 7 races in a 21 race calendar and with equal cars I would expect the top drivers to be hitting that.

Max is on 6 races already. With a 21 race calendar until he is 38 - that's 368 races left until he retires (including the 11 this year) - he needs to win 23% of his remaining races to equal Schumacher. 27% to get to 100. Both sound achievable. Not easy, not guaranteed, but far from far-fetched. And that assumes the race calendar doesn't expand further to 25 race seasons, which is very likely.

For the budget cap to get us to seasons with >5 wins being unlikely, it also assumes the budget cap will be a complete leveller - this is also unlikely. I still expect that there will be top teams, it's just that they won't be as dominant as now - that the mid field teams will be able to get on the podium without a fluke, and occasionally steal wins. The best teams will attract the best designers and the best drivers. Driver salaries are not included in the budget cap, and ultimately the top designers in F1 want to win.

It's also worth considering that in the last 30 years of F1, the WDC winning 6 or less races was a rare event. Vettel did it couple of times (2012/2010), Button(2009), Hamilton(2008), and Kimi (2007). We then had Schumacher in 2003, Hakkinen in 1999 and that's it. And it's only been in the last 15 years when the calendar has regularly been above 17 races.

My understanding is that the budget cap may bring the teams closer together but you are still going to have your top teams, the budget cap will not bring things closer to were we have basically spec racing.

That is the most likely and most reasonable expectation. The way I see it, the budget cap will not bring teams like RP and Haas up to par with Mercedes and Ferrari but it will bring teams like McLaren and Renault up to par with Mercedes and Ferrari. That should mean that there is more competition between teams but, as ATH correctly suggested, it will also give drivers greater influence over their own outcomes.

If the cars are more evenly matched and if there is less capacity for the top team to distance itself from the pack, the drivers will have more of a chance to make the difference. The best example of this would be to look at MotoGP. This is a non-spec series with a lot of factory prototype machines competing against each other. The series has achieved a balance though, and the riders are just as important as the bikes. Marc Marquez is currently dominating the series primarily because of his ability as a rider. There is currently a bigger gap between him and the next best rider than there is between the top 2-3 bikes. If F1 could ever become that kind of environment then it would be possible for a driver to rack up huge numbers just on the strength of their own ability; without needing the car to be the best.

Yeah I see no reason why drivers won't still be able to rack up a considerable number of wins per season in the future unless they start introducing such things as reverse grids?

_________________
PF1 Pick 10 Competition

2013: 5th Place
2014: Champion
2015: 3rd Place
2016: 4th Place

2017: 9th Place
2018: 7th place
2019: Currently 26th

Wins: Canada 2018, Abu Dhabi 2017
Podiums: (8)


Top
 Profile  
 
PostPosted: Sun Aug 04, 2019 10:45 pm 
Offline
User avatar

Joined: Sat Mar 06, 2004 8:07 am
Posts: 1213
After Hungary '19

1. Hamilton = 97
2. Schumacher = 91
3. Vettel = 74
4. Prost = 51
5. Senna = 41
6. Alonso = 32
7. Mansell = 31
8. Verstappen (M) = 30
9. Stewart = 27
10. Clark = 25
10. Lauda = 25
12. Fangio = 24
13. Raikkonen = 24
14. Piquet = 23
14. Rosberg (N) = 23
16. Hill (D) = 22
17. Hakkinen = 20
18. Moss = 16
19. Button = 15
20. Brabham = 14
20. Fittipaldi = 14
20. Hill (G) = 14
23. Ascari = 13
23. Coulthard = 13
25. Ricciardo = 13
26. Andretti = 12
26. Jones = 12
26. Reutemann = 12
29. Barrichello = 11
29. Massa = 11
29. Villeneuve (J) = 11
32. Bottas = 10


Max started so young but has a wins from starts ratio higher than Raikkonen, Villeneuve or Button. If makes good career choices who know where he may end up.

_________________
"I'd rather lose a race going fast enough to win it, than win one going slow enough to lose it".
-Stirling Moss


Top
 Profile  
 
PostPosted: Thu Sep 12, 2019 10:10 pm 
Offline
User avatar

Joined: Sat Mar 06, 2004 8:07 am
Posts: 1213
Charles joins the game!

After Monza:

1. Hamilton = 96
2. Schumacher = 91
3. Vettel = 73
4. Prost = 51
5. Senna = 41
6. Alonso = 32
7. Mansell = 31
8. Verstappen (M) = 29
9. Stewart = 27
10. Clark = 25
10. Lauda = 25
12. Fangio = 24
13. Raikkonen = 24
14. Piquet = 23
14. Rosberg (N) = 23
16. Hill (D) = 22
17. Hakkinen = 20
18. Leclerc = 19
19. Moss = 16
20. Button = 15

_________________
"I'd rather lose a race going fast enough to win it, than win one going slow enough to lose it".
-Stirling Moss


Top
 Profile  
 
PostPosted: Fri Sep 13, 2019 12:44 am 
Offline
User avatar

Joined: Mon Oct 30, 2017 12:58 am
Posts: 1137
Location: Kansas
DOLOMITE wrote:
Charles joins the game!

After Monza:

1. Hamilton = 96
2. Schumacher = 91
3. Vettel = 73
4. Prost = 51
5. Senna = 41
6. Alonso = 32
7. Mansell = 31
8. Verstappen (M) = 29
9. Stewart = 27
10. Clark = 25
10. Lauda = 25
12. Fangio = 24
13. Raikkonen = 24
14. Piquet = 23
14. Rosberg (N) = 23
16. Hill (D) = 22
17. Hakkinen = 20
18. Leclerc = 19
19. Moss = 16
20. Button = 15



Sebastian Vettel is currently on 52 wins with no victories in over a year. Where do you get the twisted math projections to put him at 73 race wins before he retires???? At this rate it looks to me like he will be very lucky to retire with 60 wins.

I can't help but believe that any more wins for Sebastian are going to be extremely hard won.

Max still has only racked up 7 wins. If he is going to be the driver of a generation he better start putting up numbers. Charles Leclerc could easily outpace Max before the Verstappen train can gather momentum.

_________________
Mission WinLater


Top
 Profile  
 
PostPosted: Fri Sep 13, 2019 6:24 am 
Offline
User avatar

Joined: Thu Feb 13, 2003 9:39 pm
Posts: 3545
Mort Canard wrote:
DOLOMITE wrote:
Charles joins the game!

After Monza:

1. Hamilton = 96
2. Schumacher = 91
3. Vettel = 73
4. Prost = 51
5. Senna = 41
6. Alonso = 32
7. Mansell = 31
8. Verstappen (M) = 29
9. Stewart = 27
10. Clark = 25
10. Lauda = 25
12. Fangio = 24
13. Raikkonen = 24
14. Piquet = 23
14. Rosberg (N) = 23
16. Hill (D) = 22
17. Hakkinen = 20
18. Leclerc = 19
19. Moss = 16
20. Button = 15



Sebastian Vettel is currently on 52 wins with no victories in over a year. Where do you get the twisted math projections to put him at 73 race wins before he retires???? At this rate it looks to me like he will be very lucky to retire with 60 wins.

I can't help but believe that any more wins for Sebastian are going to be extremely hard won.

Max still has only racked up 7 wins. If he is going to be the driver of a generation he better start putting up numbers. Charles Leclerc could easily outpace Max before the Verstappen train can gather momentum.

This is not a prediction model, it's a win rate model extrapolated until an estimated retirement time for each driver.


Top
 Profile  
 
Display posts from previous:  Sort by  
Post new topic Reply to topic

All times are UTC


Who is online

Users browsing this forum: No registered users and 1 guest


You cannot post new topics in this forum
You cannot reply to topics in this forum
You cannot edit your posts in this forum
You cannot delete your posts in this forum

Search for:
Jump to:  
Powered by phpBB® Forum Software © phpBB Group