planetf1.com

It is currently Tue Mar 28, 2017 7:38 pm

All times are UTC




Post new topic Reply to topic
Author Message
 Post subject: Package speed advantages
PostPosted: Sun Feb 05, 2017 10:45 am 
Offline
User avatar

Joined: Mon Apr 25, 2011 11:06 am
Posts: 3180
'Package' being my term for the driver-and-car combination. Much discussion about the huge speed advantage the Mercedes packages have enjoyed since 2014. There were several seasons when the fastest package had as much and even more speed advantage over its fastest rival package:

1950: Fangio/Alfa Romeo vs Ascari/Ferrari 125C2=2.7 secs per lap.
1959: Moss/Cooper-Climax vs Brooks/Ferrari =1.0 sec.

1958: Moss/Vanwall vs Hawthorn/Ferrari =0.9 sec
1961: Von Trips/Ferrari vs Brabham/Cooper-Climax =0.9 sec.


1952: Ascari/Ferrari vs Gonzalez/Maserati= 0.7 sec.
1957: Fangio/Maserati vs Moss//Vanwall =0.7 sec.
1984; Prost/Mclaren-Porsche vs Alboreto/Ferrari= 0.7 sec.
2007: Alonso and Hamilton/McLaren-Mercedes, Raikkonen and Massa/Ferrari=0.7 sec.

1954: Fangio/Mercedes-Benz vs Gonzalez/Ferrrai 625= 0.6 sec.
1960: Moss/Lotus-Climax vs Brabham/Cooper-Climax =0.6 sec.
1978: Andretti/Lotus-Cosworth and Lauda/Brabham fancar vs Depailler/Tyrrell-Cosowrth = 0.6 sec.
1988: Senna/McLaren-Honda vs Mansell/Williams-Judd= 0.6 sec.
2016: Hamilton/Mercedes-Benz vs Vettel/Ferrrari and Ricciardo/Red Bull-Renault =0.6 sec.

Not a lot changes in F1 at the front of the fields.

_________________
http://grandprixratings.blogspot.com


Last edited by POBRatings on Fri Feb 10, 2017 8:44 am, edited 1 time in total.

Top
 Profile  
 
PostPosted: Wed Feb 08, 2017 4:29 pm 
Offline
User avatar

Joined: Mon Apr 25, 2011 11:06 am
Posts: 3180
Whenever we see WDC or other results it is usually read as Driver results, when in fact only Package results are timed and recorded.
Part of my analysis has been to measure the opposition the dominant /WDC winning drivers faced.
By adding the team-mate's driver-rating and the fastest rival package's rating, then divide by two, I get the average 'gap' or advantage the dominant driver enjoyed.

Clark/Lotus-Climax in 1963 had the biggest advantage at 1.9 secs /lap.
Fangio/Mercedes-Benz in 1954 was next at 1.15 secs/lap.
Brabham/Cooper-Climax in 1960 and Fangio in 1957 third greatest gap at 0.95 secs.
BY comparison the closest gap was Hakkinen/McLaren-Mercedes in 1998 of just 0.1 sec /lap

Bear in mind these are all for individual seasons and are season-average figures.

_________________
http://grandprixratings.blogspot.com


Top
 Profile  
 
PostPosted: Thu Feb 09, 2017 11:17 am 
Online

Joined: Fri Oct 17, 2003 10:09 pm
Posts: 7002
Interesting numbers, so the 2016 Mercedes was the most dominant of the three? Also the 2007 Ferrari and Mclaren held a much bigger advantage to BMW and Renault than I remember.

Also interesting to note that it appears we did not have a car on average 0.6 per lap quicker than anything else between 1988 to 2016? I am surprised at that, what about the 1992 Williams where does that fall? I know the Red Bulls and Ferraris aren't actually that dominant on season averages as at quite a lot of tracks per season they weren't even quickest.

_________________
http://www.racefan.co.uk


Top
 Profile  
 
PostPosted: Thu Feb 09, 2017 11:28 am 
Online

Joined: Mon Mar 26, 2012 10:39 am
Posts: 18094
I'm curious: what was the gap in 2014 according to your system? I should have thought it was the biggest of the lot?


Top
 Profile  
 
PostPosted: Thu Feb 09, 2017 1:30 pm 
Offline
User avatar

Joined: Mon Apr 25, 2011 11:06 am
Posts: 3180
lamo wrote:
Interesting numbers, so the 2016 Mercedes was the most dominant of the three? Also the 2007 Ferrari and Mclaren held a much bigger advantage to BMW and Renault than I remember.

Also interesting to note that it appears we did not have a car on average 0.6 per lap quicker than anything else between 1988 to 2016? I am surprised at that, what about the 1992 Williams where does that fall? I know the Red Bulls and Ferraris aren't actually that dominant on season averages as at quite a lot of tracks per season they weren't even quickest.


2016:I don't think one can necessarily conclude from my stats figures that the 2016 Merc was the most dominant of the three seasons 2014-2016. It was only slightly faster by 0.1-sec/lap than its next fastest rival package, but Rosberg performed more strongly than he'd done in 2014, 2015 making up the 90.5% win rate.

2007: The gap between the McLs and the Ferraris and their closest rival packages was actually wide. Remember that the McL and Ferr car advantage was widened further by the four drivers Alonso, Hamilton, Raikkonen and Massa being faster than BMWs Heidfeld, Kubica, Vettel and Renault's Fisi, Kovalainen. BMW and Renault scored no wins, no poles; all being scored by McL and Ferrari.

The lack of any package on 0.6 is just an accident of how the stats worked out.

_________________
http://grandprixratings.blogspot.com


Top
 Profile  
 
PostPosted: Fri Feb 10, 2017 9:07 am 
Offline
User avatar

Joined: Mon Apr 25, 2011 11:06 am
Posts: 3180
In 1950 the Fangio/Alfa Romeo 158 's package advantage was 2.7 secs over its fastest rival package, the Ascari/Ferrari 125C2. This was only for races 2,3,4 of 6.

In the last race at Monza, Ferrari debuted their 4.5-litre unsupercharged V12 Type 375. With Ascari driving it was 2.2 secs/lap faster than the superceded 1.5-litre supercharged Ferrari 125C2! This Ascari /Ferrari 375 package-rated just 0.5-secs /lap slower than the Fangio /Alfa Romeo 158. Consequently for the first time in 1950 a Ferrari managed to lead a race, just two laps by Ascari's 375. This car dropped out, but Ascari took over a team-mate's 375 to finish second. This boded well for the Ferrraris to challenge the Alfas in 1951 which they did.

_________________
http://grandprixratings.blogspot.com


Top
 Profile  
 
PostPosted: Fri Feb 10, 2017 2:05 pm 
Online

Joined: Fri Oct 17, 2003 10:09 pm
Posts: 7002
As a spectacle for the race win, F1 in the 1950's seems terrible.

_________________
http://www.racefan.co.uk


Top
 Profile  
 
PostPosted: Fri Feb 10, 2017 10:05 pm 
Offline
User avatar

Joined: Mon Apr 25, 2011 11:06 am
Posts: 3180
lamo wrote:
As a spectacle for the race win, F1 in the 1950's seems terrible.


I don'think one can blanket judge a whole decade; each season was different, most featured great battles.

The 1950 season was a walkover for Alfa Romeo. Similar to 1988,2014,2016.
1951 was great as the Alfa Romeos and Ferraris were close-matched scoring wins at 4:3 respectively, by four drivers, Fangio and Farina for Alfa Romeo, and Ascari and Gonzalez for Ferrari. Just like 2007.
1952 was a walkover for Ferrari. Similar to 1988 for McLaren-Honda or 2014, 2016 for Mercedes-Benz
1954-5 was dominated by Mercedes-Benz, but there were occasional strong challenges, leads and wins by others. Any different from 2015? For 1954-5 Mercedes won 11/14 races for a win rate of 78.6%. in 2014-2016 Mercedes won 51/59 races for a win-rate of 86.4%. IE rival makes won 21.4% in 1954-1955, while rivals in 2014-2016 only won 13.6%. So 2014-16 was much more dominant.
All the other six Fifties seasons were close fought, the wins being scored by Lancia-Ferrari, Ferrrari, Vanwall, Maserati, BRM and Cooper-Climax. None was dominated by one manufacturer as 2014-2016 were.

_________________
http://grandprixratings.blogspot.com


Top
 Profile  
 
PostPosted: Sat Feb 11, 2017 4:06 pm 
Offline

Joined: Sun May 25, 2008 7:55 pm
Posts: 3297
One of these days I'll have to get around to reading your thesis lol. I appreciate anyone who puts in this kind of work but I have to say that I do not agree with several of your outcomes just on initial reaction.


Top
 Profile  
 
PostPosted: Wed Feb 15, 2017 10:59 am 
Offline
User avatar

Joined: Mon Apr 25, 2011 11:06 am
Posts: 3180
My package speeds are taken direct from times as recorded on-track. These most accurately reflect the competition. EG when some seasons were so close-fought:
2007 when the four McLaren and Ferrari package-ratings worked out equal. Unique.
2012 when the Vettel/Red Bull-Renault and the Hamilton/McLaren-Merc package-ratings worked out equal.
2010 when the same two package-ratings worked out equal.
2006 when Alonso/Renault and Schumacher/Ferrari package-ratings worked out within 0.1 of each other.

_________________
http://grandprixratings.blogspot.com


Top
 Profile  
 
PostPosted: Thu Feb 23, 2017 7:18 am 
Offline
User avatar

Joined: Mon Apr 25, 2011 11:06 am
Posts: 3180
No matter how fast rated the driver or car are, it is the combined car-and-driver Package-rating that determines race results and rankings. The 1982 season featured 11 winning packages, the most to date in GP history. Most remember 1982 as the season that the Keke Rosberg/Williams-Cosworth scored only one win, yet Rosberg won the WDC.

This was also unusual season because some of the winners (on season's average) were some way off the speed of the fastest packages. What enabled such a varied spread of race-winners was that this was the last year in which the less powerful, normally aspirated cars could compete equally over a season with the more powerful turbo-powered cars. What helped was that the turbos were less reliable.

Of the 16 races, the wins were equally shared 8:8 between the Turbos and the Cosworths.
1.5-litre turbo-charged winners: Prost annd Arnoux /Renault 4 wins; Pironi and Tambay /Ferrari 3 wins; Piquet/Brabham-BMW 1 win.
3.0-litre Cosworth winners: Lauda and Watson/McLaren-Cosworth 4 wins; Rosberg/Williams-Cosworth, de Angelis/Lotus-Cosworth, Alboreto/Tyrrell-Cosworth and Patrese/Brabham-Cosworth 1 win each.

Certain circuits helped 'even' out the performances: the Cosworth-engined cars won on the four slow street circuits Longbeach, Monaco, Dallas and Las Vegas. here the high-torque and power of the turbo-cars was neutralised.

_________________
http://grandprixratings.blogspot.com


Top
 Profile  
 
PostPosted: Thu Feb 23, 2017 6:39 pm 
Offline
User avatar

Joined: Mon Apr 25, 2011 11:06 am
Posts: 3180
My above post on the 11-winner 1982 season: I should have mentioned that the spread of package-ratings ranged fromthe 100.0 for the Prost/Renault and the VIlleneuve/Ferrari to the slowest winning package, the alboreto/Tyrrell-Cosworth at 101.1.

Bear in mind that these are season-average ratings figures; on some circuits the Tyrrell was obviously faster.

This range of 1.1 for 1982 is wider than usual; most winners come from within the 100.0 to 100.5 ratings.

_________________
http://grandprixratings.blogspot.com


Top
 Profile  
 
PostPosted: Fri Feb 24, 2017 11:08 am 
Offline
User avatar

Joined: Mon Apr 25, 2011 11:06 am
Posts: 3180
:blush: oops first time I've looked at my stats and compared seasons. Each season is calculated in isolation for the packages and cars.

Because of the record 11 winning packages in 1982, what I assumed was the wide gap between fastest and slowest winning packages proves not to have been so unusual:

2012 the Maldonado/Williams-Renault was 1.0-sec slowe than the season-average fastest at 100.0.
1990 the Patrese/Williams-Renault was the slowest winner, package-rated at 101.0.
1977 Lafitte/Ligeir-Matra 101.1.
1981 Gilles Villenueve /Ferrari 101.2.
1980 Arnoux/Renault 101.2.

So this stat is not so uncommon. But most package-winners slower than about -0.5 on my System are rare, outliers.

_________________
http://grandprixratings.blogspot.com


Top
 Profile  
 
PostPosted: Fri Feb 24, 2017 12:21 pm 
Offline

Joined: Sat Jan 28, 2012 4:13 pm
Posts: 10298
POBRatings wrote:
:blush: oops first time I've looked at my stats and compared seasons. Each season is calculated in isolation for the packages and cars.

Because of the record 11 winning packages in 1982, what I assumed was the wide gap between fastest and slowest winning packages proves not to have been so unusual:

2012 the Maldonado/Williams-Renault was 1.0-sec slowe than the season-average fastest at 100.0.
1990 the Patrese/Williams-Renault was the slowest winner, package-rated at 101.0.
1977 Lafitte/Ligeir-Matra 101.1.
1981 Gilles Villenueve /Ferrari 101.2.
1980 Arnoux/Renault 101.2.

So this stat is not so uncommon. But most package-winners slower than about -0.5 on my System are rare, outliers.


Fissichella in the Jordan must be one?


Top
 Profile  
 
PostPosted: Fri Feb 24, 2017 1:02 pm 
Offline
User avatar

Joined: Mon Apr 25, 2011 11:06 am
Posts: 3180
Right: Fisi in the Jordan-Cosworth 2003 at Interlagos package-rated at 101.6; ie 1.6 secs per lap slower on season-average than the M Scumacher/Ferrari.

_________________
http://grandprixratings.blogspot.com


Top
 Profile  
 
PostPosted: Sun Feb 26, 2017 6:01 pm 
Offline
User avatar

Joined: Mon Apr 25, 2011 11:06 am
Posts: 3180
Just compared the incidence* of winners 1950-2016 rated at slower than 100.5 (ie 0.5 secs per lap):
Packages 15.2%.
Drivers 10.0%.
Cars 6.6%.

Another method that shows the Car is more important than the Driver.

* number of F1 races won by competitors slower than 100.5.

_________________
http://grandprixratings.blogspot.com


Top
 Profile  
 
PostPosted: Sun Feb 26, 2017 9:39 pm 
Offline
User avatar

Joined: Mon Apr 25, 2011 11:06 am
Posts: 3180
Just collated and compared the race-winning ratings slower than 100.5 and found some trends or patterns:
there are about 50% more package winners than drivers.
there are about 50% more driver winners than cars.

As field performance and tech knowledge converged:
the number of race-winners slower than 100.5 declined significantly for Packages and Cars from 1990, but only from 2000 for Drivers!

Don't know how to explain these patterns. I had no overall pre-conceived ideas, just worked on each season in isolation, so these trends are just how the stats worked out.

_________________
http://grandprixratings.blogspot.com


Top
 Profile  
 
PostPosted: Tue Feb 28, 2017 12:53 pm 
Offline
User avatar

Joined: Mon Apr 25, 2011 11:06 am
Posts: 3180
Thinking about 2017 and overtaking: apart from aero/close following, there is one factor imo that will not make overtaking easier: the sheer footprint size of the new cars with their wider tyres.

Some time ago, when there were many startline and first corner collisions, I drew plan views of the cars from each decade to same scale. The cars became bigger, wider and longer. The Sixties with the 1.5-litre cars had the most number of overtakes. Their footprint was so much smaller than recent cars' allowing more overtakes even though circuits were much narrower then.

_________________
http://grandprixratings.blogspot.com


Top
 Profile  
 
PostPosted: Tue Feb 28, 2017 1:49 pm 
Offline
User avatar

Joined: Mon Apr 25, 2011 11:06 am
Posts: 3180
The decade average of the slowest race-winning packages:
1990s: rated at 100.94. Ie 0.94 secs/lap slower than the fastest packages'at 100.0.
2000s: rated at 100.85. ie 0.85 secs/lap
2010s: rated at 100.72.ie 0.72-secs/lap

Slight changes each decade of about 0.1-sec per lap for these 'outlier' or underdog winners.

_________________
http://grandprixratings.blogspot.com


Top
 Profile  
 
PostPosted: Sat Mar 04, 2017 7:38 am 
Offline
User avatar

Joined: Mon Apr 25, 2011 11:06 am
Posts: 3180
Looking at the total number of the 67 WDCs (1950-2016) won by the fastest Package each season and comparing with the numbers won by the fastest Drivers and the fastest Cars (converted to percentages for comparison):

Packages 60%
Drivers 48%
Cars 61%.

This confirms the importance of the Car and the Package over the Driver in winning the WDC.

_________________
http://grandprixratings.blogspot.com


Top
 Profile  
 
PostPosted: Wed Mar 15, 2017 4:21 pm 
Offline
User avatar

Joined: Mon Apr 25, 2011 11:06 am
Posts: 3180
The last season that any Package had as much speed advantage over its fastest rival Package as the 2015 Hamilton/Mercedes, was in 2002:the Schumacher /Ferrari was 0.5 faster than the Ralf Schumacher/Williams-BMW.
All the seasons in between (2003-2014) the gaps were much closer.
In 2015 the Hamilton/Mercedes scored 10 wins of 19 races (52.6%).
IN 2002 the Michael Schumacher/Ferrari scored 11 wins from 17 races (64.7%).

_________________
http://grandprixratings.blogspot.com


Top
 Profile  
 
PostPosted: Thu Mar 16, 2017 3:38 pm 
Offline
User avatar

Joined: Mon Apr 25, 2011 11:06 am
Posts: 3180
Some very close Package times were recorded in practice for the 1963 Italian GP at Monza.

After the first day's practice using the 10 km lap of the banked oval and the road course, the Police prohibited the use of the banking due to lack of spectator safety precautions. The teams and many drivers were relieved, for there had been a couple of lurid spins due to the high g-forces causing some suspension breakages. Fortunately no-one was injured.

The following day using only the 5.8 km road course, the top few packages recorded such close times. According to Motor Sport's Oct 1963 race report by Denis Jenkinson: "The timekeeepers were normally recording readings to tenths of a second, but where two drivers made eual times they analysed their results more closely and came up with figures to two decimal places. ":
Surtees/Ferrari 156/63 -2 1min 39.58secs.
Clark/Lotus-Climax 25 1min 39.68secs.
Graham Hill/ BRM P2611min 39.75secs.
bandini/Ferrari 156/63 i min 40.10 secs.

These were not the final qualy times, for all except Bandini improved; and Ginther/BRM recorded 1 min 3919 secs and and Gurney/Brabham- 1min 38.25.

Although there were some wide intervals in earlier times, many were still excitingly close. Monza with its high speeds was usually a race-long slip-streaming battle. In 1963 there were about 20 lead changes among four packages: Surtees/Ferrari, Clark/Lotus-Climax, G Hill/BRM and Gurney/Brabham-Climax.

_________________
http://grandprixratings.blogspot.com


Top
 Profile  
 
PostPosted: Fri Mar 17, 2017 1:25 am 
Offline

Joined: Tue Apr 21, 2009 2:49 am
Posts: 711
for 1950 - there were up to 6 Alfa's in some races and at least 4 - so arguably more competitive than a single team dominating today - and why use Fangio when Farina won the WDC?


Top
 Profile  
 
PostPosted: Fri Mar 17, 2017 2:03 am 
Offline

Joined: Sat Jan 28, 2012 4:13 pm
Posts: 10298
F1Oz wrote:
for 1950 - there were up to 6 Alfa's in some races and at least 4 - so arguably more competitive than a single team dominating today - and why use Fangio when Farina won the WDC?


I'm assuming because the Fangio/Alfa package was the fastest?


Top
 Profile  
 
PostPosted: Sun Mar 19, 2017 1:26 pm 
Offline

Joined: Tue Apr 21, 2009 2:49 am
Posts: 711
But Fangio came 2nd in the SAME package as Farina - arguably could have gone either way and Farina as the Italian may have been favoured - but that's not clear cut


Top
 Profile  
 
PostPosted: Sun Mar 19, 2017 1:52 pm 
Offline

Joined: Sat Jan 28, 2012 4:13 pm
Posts: 10298
[quote="F1Oz"]But Fangio came 2nd in the SAME package as Farina - arguably could have gone either way and Farina as the Italian may have been favoured - but that's not clear cut[/quote]

That doesn't mean he couldn't have been faster. Plenty of seasons a faster driver has finished below a slower team mate in the championship. Ricciardo/Kvyat in 2015 for example.


Top
 Profile  
 
Display posts from previous:  Sort by  
Post new topic Reply to topic

All times are UTC


Who is online

Users browsing this forum: Google Adsense [Bot], Jenson's Understeer, lamo, Warnzee, Zoue and 1 guest


You cannot post new topics in this forum
You cannot reply to topics in this forum
You cannot edit your posts in this forum
You cannot delete your posts in this forum

Search for:
Jump to:  
Powered by phpBB® Forum Software © phpBB Group