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PostPosted: Sun Mar 05, 2017 11:22 am 
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mikeyg123 wrote:
F1Oz wrote:
If Ferrari has a competitive car - and the team don't discriminate against KR to support SV - then clearly he has a chance


A very small one unless he can get on terms with Vettel in races. He's shown little sign of being able to do that thus far.

Most of those suggesting Kimi might be able to come to terms with Vettel in races are pointing to the tyres as the main reason. I agree the odds are in favour of Vettel winning their intra-team battle, but I also believe that the main reason Kimi has been unable to keep up during races has been tyre wear and their thermal operating window. With the reports of tyre wear having much less of an impact this year and them being significantly less thermally sensitive, there's reason to believe he might have a stronger showing. Not guaranteed by any means, but there is some logic behind the thought process


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PostPosted: Sun Mar 05, 2017 12:57 pm 
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Zoue wrote:
mikeyg123 wrote:
F1Oz wrote:
If Ferrari has a competitive car - and the team don't discriminate against KR to support SV - then clearly he has a chance


A very small one unless he can get on terms with Vettel in races. He's shown little sign of being able to do that thus far.

Most of those suggesting Kimi might be able to come to terms with Vettel in races are pointing to the tyres as the main reason. I agree the odds are in favour of Vettel winning their intra-team battle, but I also believe that the main reason Kimi has been unable to keep up during races has been tyre wear and their thermal operating window. With the reports of tyre wear having much less of an impact this year and them being significantly less thermally sensitive, there's reason to believe he might have a stronger showing. Not guaranteed by any means, but there is some logic behind the thought process


Yet people seem to rate his performances in 2012/13 with feeble tyres?


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PostPosted: Sun Mar 05, 2017 1:16 pm 
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mikeyg123 wrote:
Zoue wrote:
mikeyg123 wrote:
F1Oz wrote:
If Ferrari has a competitive car - and the team don't discriminate against KR to support SV - then clearly he has a chance


A very small one unless he can get on terms with Vettel in races. He's shown little sign of being able to do that thus far.

Most of those suggesting Kimi might be able to come to terms with Vettel in races are pointing to the tyres as the main reason. I agree the odds are in favour of Vettel winning their intra-team battle, but I also believe that the main reason Kimi has been unable to keep up during races has been tyre wear and their thermal operating window. With the reports of tyre wear having much less of an impact this year and them being significantly less thermally sensitive, there's reason to believe he might have a stronger showing. Not guaranteed by any means, but there is some logic behind the thought process


Yet people seem to rate his performances in 2012/13 with feeble tyres?

I think he drove well, but it was more the fact that the car was so gentle on its tyres than Kimi being a tyre wizard. I said so at the time and pointed out that when it was cold, or raining, Kimi really struggled to get heat into them, which was the main reason why his qualifying was so poor at wet races. His best results were when it was hottest.

Lotus seemed to have one strategy - to try to do one less stop than everyone else. But I wasn't convinced at the time that was the best and I'm still not 100% now. The main issue was the thermal operating window and the Lotus being gentle on it's tyres allowed Kimi to exploit that only when the conditions were right. When they weren't, he struggled.

If the new tyres lead less management, there's no reason to believe he won't be better. After all, if he can match Seb for one lap pace why not race pace? I can't think of much beyond the tyres (but I appreciate I can't guarantee I'm right, either!). I think Kimi's been pretty poor overall at managing the Pirelli tyres but occasional flashes have shown us he still possesses decent raw pace. The Michelins didn't require management and he did fine with them. Not saying these will be the same but if they are more forgiving than they have been in the last few years there's some logic in believing that this may play to his strengths. Or, alternatively, not highlight his weaknesses so much, whichever you prefer


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PostPosted: Sun Mar 05, 2017 9:16 pm 
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I remember a thread similar to this assessing Kimi's chances for 2014. He was supposed to take it to Alonso and it was going to be a battle royale for the ages as they fought for the Championship. What happened for Ferrari and especially Kimi afterwards was very sad. Perhaps we should wait for at least the end of the 2nd test to assess how competitive the top 3 teams are relative to each other. If Ferrari have a big advantage like Mercedes have recently enjoyed then of course Kimi has a chance. But having said that my honest opinion? Kimi is done! Last season was more a case of Vettel dropping the ball rather than Kimi picking up his game. He is also overall not the strongest in qualifying. If these tyres are durable as predicted he would need to consistently out-qualify Ricciardo, Hamilton, Verstappen, Bottas and Vettel to have a sniff of a chance to win. I don't see that happening. He might be able to out qualify some of them some of the time but not all of them all of the time. I see Kimi starting most races 5th or 6th even if the Ferrari is the fastest car and finishing behind like Spain 2016.


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PostPosted: Tue Mar 07, 2017 2:14 pm 
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bonecrasher wrote:
I remember a thread similar to this assessing Kimi's chances for 2014. He was supposed to take it to Alonso and it was going to be a battle royale for the ages as they fought for the Championship. What happened for Ferrari and especially Kimi afterwards was very sad. Perhaps we should wait for at least the end of the 2nd test to assess how competitive the top 3 teams are relative to each other. If Ferrari have a big advantage like Mercedes have recently enjoyed then of course Kimi has a chance. But having said that my honest opinion? Kimi is done! Last season was more a case of Vettel dropping the ball rather than Kimi picking up his game. He is also overall not the strongest in qualifying. If these tyres are durable as predicted he would need to consistently out-qualify Ricciardo, Hamilton, Verstappen, Bottas and Vettel to have a sniff of a chance to win. I don't see that happening. He might be able to out qualify some of them some of the time but not all of them all of the time. I see Kimi starting most races 5th or 6th even if the Ferrari is the fastest car and finishing behind like Spain 2016.


Sadly I think you are right. The times when I gave Kimi the automatic benefit of the doubt have loooong since passed. His performance has dropped off in an almost spectacular fashion. I almost struggle to remember the days when he was legitimately fast.

A real shame as I think F1 really benefits from having top notch Finnish driver. Nothing I like more than listening to their most interesting humor when talking!


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PostPosted: Wed Mar 08, 2017 4:37 pm 
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Nosebuckle wrote:
Way too early to suggest anyone other than one of the Mercs. Ferrari has impressed like this in previous tests, but I will admit, considering the reliability and times on the medium compound, they haven't built a dud. But there are some many unknowns with the new tyres, not to mention the new technical regulations, that it's hard to have confidence in anyone after little more than 3 days of actual testing.


This year car should suit Kimi more and Last year he already matched him. Even in Wet Silverstone he beat Vettel and usually Vettel is one of the best in wets. Qualifying performance was also impressive. I think Kimi has a great chance this year especially considering Ferrari looks like it could win races this year

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PostPosted: Mon Mar 13, 2017 11:24 pm 
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I keep thinking about this thread and wow, wouldn't it be wonderful to see Kimi win a bunch of races. I wonder how many years he has left, a few for sure but fortunes change quickly in F1. I like Seb too, but I want to see Kimi on the podium and he's been fast so far.


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PostPosted: Mon Mar 13, 2017 11:35 pm 
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1 race win for Kimi, 5 for Vettel, 3 for Bottas, 6 for Hamilton, 2 for Ricc, 2 for Max.

Ferrari best to start, Mercedes take over, RB come on strong.


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