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Who Will Win the Championship
Hamilton 61%  61%  [ 57 ]
Vettel 37%  37%  [ 34 ]
Someone Else (Please say who) 2%  2%  [ 2 ]
Total votes : 93
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 Post subject: Re: Hamilton vs. Vettel
PostPosted: Mon Apr 17, 2017 12:11 am 
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lamo wrote:
I hope Mercedes do a strategy review video of this race like they did Australia. Unless they were trying to one stop, there strategy was illogical.

Without the SC one of the Mercedes (whichever one pitted second - assuming the lead car pitted on the SC lap) would have ended up 12+ seconds behind Vettel having been 0.5 seconds from him just 4 laps before and would have been 5th or even 6th (assuming Max didn't retire) Kimi had a very good chance of undercutting the 2nd Mercedes to pit. Absolute madness. If they choose to pit Lewis first, Bottas would have gone from the lead to 5th/6th place, 12 seconds behind the leader in 4 laps... wow.


Wow, without the SC Ricciardo, Kimi and I'm guessing Bottas would of pit the next lap anyway. Then Hamilton the following lap, after all that he could of ended up 6th. That would of been a massive stuff up.

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 Post subject: Re: Hamilton vs. Vettel
PostPosted: Mon Apr 17, 2017 12:26 am 
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F1_Ernie wrote:
lamo wrote:
I hope Mercedes do a strategy review video of this race like they did Australia. Unless they were trying to one stop, there strategy was illogical.

Without the SC one of the Mercedes (whichever one pitted second - assuming the lead car pitted on the SC lap) would have ended up 12+ seconds behind Vettel having been 0.5 seconds from him just 4 laps before and would have been 5th or even 6th (assuming Max didn't retire) Kimi had a very good chance of undercutting the 2nd Mercedes to pit. Absolute madness. If they choose to pit Lewis first, Bottas would have gone from the lead to 5th/6th place, 12 seconds behind the leader in 4 laps... wow.


Wow, without the SC Ricciardo, Kimi and I'm guessing Bottas would of pit the next lap anyway. Then Hamilton the following lap, after all that he could of ended up 6th. That would of been a massive stuff up.


Kimi had already pitted, the lap before the SC. That is why he likely would have undercut the 2nd pitting Mercedes (2 laps at gaining 2.0+ seconds). Vettel managed to go 2.7 quicker than Bottas on his first 2 laps.

Pit stops would likely be;

Lap 10 - Vettel
Lap 11 - Verstappen
Lap 12 - Raikkonen
Those actually happened
Lap 13 - Hamilton, Ricciardo
Lap 14 - Bottas

That scenario would likely have put Bottas (2nd Mercedes pitter in this example) in 6th and 12 seconds behind Vettel. Order would be
1) Vettel
2) Verstappen +3.0 seconds
3) Hamilton +8.5 seconds
4) Ricciardo + 10.0 seconds
5) Raikkonen +10.5 seconds
6) Bottas + 12.0 seconds

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 Post subject: Re: Hamilton vs. Vettel
PostPosted: Mon Apr 17, 2017 5:04 am 
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lamo wrote:
Judging by what I have seen in the first 3 races and generally with Bottas in 2014-2016, he could massively aid Hamilton to win Hamilton the title this year. He is like Nico in 2014, within 0.1-0.2 of Hamilton in qualifying and able to out qualify him at times, but on race day at times over 0.5-0.6 a lap slower in the race. If Mercedes run 1-2 with Hamilton in the lead, Vettel isn't going to have a chance. Hamilton will have the races won in the first stint.

The problem for Mercedes is Bottas out qualifying Hamilton, they lost an easy win today. Kimi is too slow to get involved in the title fight, but Bottas can really hurt Vettel if it carries on like this.

Like I have always said, Hamilton is good but not unbeatable over 1 lap unless up against Jenson. His biggest strength is the race pace. Bottas race pace in stint 1 in Australia and in Bahrain today has been poor. China we don't know because of the spin but even then he was a bit down on Hamilton in that final stint.

I have always been saying, Bottas will likely be number 2 very shortly and we have seen the first signs of that today and now the questions have already started to Toto when this will occur. He is 23 points behind Lewis today and showed in the second stint he can't do anything against Vettel in race trim in a straight fight. If Hamilton wins the next race and Bottas is P2/P3 that will be 30+ points and number 2 time I feel.


Why Jenson ? Others have a stronger qualifying record against Lewis. Out of the top teams it appears that Hamilton, Vettel and Verstappen look the most comfortable with these new car/tyre combinations so the question of number 2s is pertinent and relevant even at this early stage. However the teams have to manage their driver relationships and the wcc is their main concern so they may hold back on what appears to us to be the logical thing. I think the current drivers who are struggling need to look at the bigger picture and be more compliant if their faster teammate, in the race, needs to get by as it will count in the wdc end considering how close the top teams are.

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 Post subject: Re: Hamilton vs. Vettel
PostPosted: Mon Apr 17, 2017 7:55 am 
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mds wrote:
sandman1347 wrote:
The penalty had everything to do with the safety car. The reason he was slowing up was to enable Bottas to stop and get out before he arrived at the box. The penalty then led to him being stuck behind Bottas for several laps in the 2nd and 3rd stints. Interestingly there was no safety car near the end when Erriccson's car failed right on the side of the track. You had marshals within a few meters of the outside of a corner pushing the car. Had anyone gone wide there someone could have been killed.


The penalty did not get him stuck behind Bottas for several laps. The second stint was unaffected by the penalty as he only served it during his second stop, and Bottas dove out of the way as soon as Hamilton turned up behind him during his last stint.

Even if you see the penalty as a direct consequence of pit stop timing, Hamilton loses 5s due to SC and Vettel >7s. So Hamilton still benefits a bit and Bottas does big-time.

Agree about the Ericsson incident though.


Hamilton lost

4 seconds dropping back from bottas to enable a seemless stack stop (he was previously within a second)

5 seconds due to his self.inflicted penalty

At least 3 seconds which was a mix of.bottas delayed getaway and his front left going on slow

Hamilton came off worse but it was all a self inflicted Mercedes problem, culminating in Lewis driving erratically.

Not sure how you see the SC benefiting Hamilton more than vettel?

IF the 2 Mercs were separate and Merc did a clean stop he would have, but all the other details of the real scenario screwed him, made worse by his own actions trying to minimise time lost due to the stack

However it's all fairly irrelevant , what on earth were Mercedes pit wall thinking, we're they hoping vettel would be slower on his new tyres? Beyond belief. They should have put bottas before vettel ans then Hamilton the same lap as vettel


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 Post subject: Re: Hamilton vs. Vettel
PostPosted: Mon Apr 17, 2017 10:02 am 
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Andy2402 wrote:
mds wrote:
sandman1347 wrote:
The penalty had everything to do with the safety car. The reason he was slowing up was to enable Bottas to stop and get out before he arrived at the box. The penalty then led to him being stuck behind Bottas for several laps in the 2nd and 3rd stints. Interestingly there was no safety car near the end when Erriccson's car failed right on the side of the track. You had marshals within a few meters of the outside of a corner pushing the car. Had anyone gone wide there someone could have been killed.


The penalty did not get him stuck behind Bottas for several laps. The second stint was unaffected by the penalty as he only served it during his second stop, and Bottas dove out of the way as soon as Hamilton turned up behind him during his last stint.

Even if you see the penalty as a direct consequence of pit stop timing, Hamilton loses 5s due to SC and Vettel >7s. So Hamilton still benefits a bit and Bottas does big-time.

Agree about the Ericsson incident though.


Hamilton lost

4 seconds dropping back from bottas to enable a seemless stack stop (he was previously within a second)

5 seconds due to his self.inflicted penalty

At least 3 seconds which was a mix of.bottas delayed getaway and his front left going on slow

Hamilton came off worse but it was all a self inflicted Mercedes problem, culminating in Lewis driving erratically.

Not sure how you see the SC benefiting Hamilton more than vettel?

IF the 2 Mercs were separate and Merc did a clean stop he would have, but all the other details of the real scenario screwed him, made worse by his own actions trying to minimise time lost due to the stack

However it's all fairly irrelevant , what on earth were Mercedes pit wall thinking, we're they hoping vettel would be slower on his new tyres? Beyond belief. They should have put bottas before vettel ans then Hamilton the same lap as vettel

If there hadn't been a safety car, Vettel would have undercut Bottas and definitely come out well ahead of Hamilton. Instead he had to rely on Bottas having a poor stop to just get ahead. I think that's probably what mds is referring to. It also screwed Kimi big time, as he came out behind Massa, having previously overtaken him before the SC came out. Hamilton lost 4 seconds because of stacking (not counting the penalty as that was entirely self-inflicted), but Vettel would have been further ahead had the SC not come out


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 Post subject: Re: Hamilton vs. Vettel
PostPosted: Mon Apr 17, 2017 10:16 am 
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"We would have probably taken a different decision [in Bahrain] if Valtteri had run in the front with the problem on the tyres and Lewis would have been second. But with Vettel in between, there is nothing we could have done. That's why it was the perfect storm."

Thats what Wolff said after the race. Would it have made any difference? If Vettel was 2nd or 3rd surely he would have pit first. I can't see Merc letting Hamilton through if he was running 2nd and Vettel so close.

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 Post subject: Re: Hamilton vs. Vettel
PostPosted: Mon Apr 17, 2017 10:19 am 
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F1_Ernie wrote:
"We would have probably taken a different decision [in Bahrain] if Valtteri had run in the front with the problem on the tyres and Lewis would have been second. But with Vettel in between, there is nothing we could have done. That's why it was the perfect storm."

Thats what Wolff said after the race. Would it have made any difference? If Vettel was 2nd or 3rd surely he would have pit first. I can't see Merc letting Hamilton through if he was running 2nd and Vettel so close.

Hmm, not sure I agree. there was nothing to stop Mercedes from trying to undercut Vettel, for example, but Ferrari got there first...


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 Post subject: Re: Hamilton vs. Vettel
PostPosted: Mon Apr 17, 2017 10:26 am 
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Zoue wrote:
F1_Ernie wrote:
"We would have probably taken a different decision [in Bahrain] if Valtteri had run in the front with the problem on the tyres and Lewis would have been second. But with Vettel in between, there is nothing we could have done. That's why it was the perfect storm."

Thats what Wolff said after the race. Would it have made any difference? If Vettel was 2nd or 3rd surely he would have pit first. I can't see Merc letting Hamilton through if he was running 2nd and Vettel so close.

Hmm, not sure I agree. there was nothing to stop Mercedes from trying to undercut Vettel, for example, but Ferrari got there first...


Or even reacting to Ferrari, the lap times Vettel was putting in it was pretty clear it was time to pit.

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 Post subject: Re: Hamilton vs. Vettel
PostPosted: Mon Apr 17, 2017 10:33 am 
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http://www.autosport.com/news/report.ph ... 1490342157

So Mercedes would have swapped cars that early.

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 Post subject: Re: Hamilton vs. Vettel
PostPosted: Mon Apr 17, 2017 11:38 am 
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F1_Ernie wrote:
"We would have probably taken a different decision [in Bahrain] if Valtteri had run in the front with the problem on the tyres and Lewis would have been second. But with Vettel in between, there is nothing we could have done. That's why it was the perfect storm."

Thats what Wolff said after the race. Would it have made any difference? If Vettel was 2nd or 3rd surely he would have pit first. I can't see Merc letting Hamilton through if he was running 2nd and Vettel so close.

It's quite worrying because they are obviously still clueless, also what is this different decision they would have taken, given Hamilton the undercut which they could still have done with Hamilton running in 3rd place, or allowed Hamilton by which they only allowed Hamilton to do later in the race after he had repeatedly had to beg them and even promised to give the place back if he couldn't pass Vettel.

Even then they repeatedly stalled on making that decision, so I call bs on them doing anything if Hamilton had been running in second place.

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 Post subject: Re: Hamilton vs. Vettel
PostPosted: Mon Apr 17, 2017 11:39 am 
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Zoue wrote:
F1_Ernie wrote:
"We would have probably taken a different decision [in Bahrain] if Valtteri had run in the front with the problem on the tyres and Lewis would have been second. But with Vettel in between, there is nothing we could have done. That's why it was the perfect storm."

Thats what Wolff said after the race. Would it have made any difference? If Vettel was 2nd or 3rd surely he would have pit first. I can't see Merc letting Hamilton through if he was running 2nd and Vettel so close.

Hmm, not sure I agree. there was nothing to stop Mercedes from trying to undercut Vettel, for example, but Ferrari got there first...

Yep and the reason they didn't do that was because of their rules of engagement.

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 Post subject: Re: Hamilton vs. Vettel
PostPosted: Mon Apr 17, 2017 11:45 am 
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Andy2402 wrote:

Hamilton lost

4 seconds dropping back from bottas to enable a seemless stack stop (he was previously within a second)

5 seconds due to his self.inflicted penalty

At least 3 seconds which was a mix of.bottas delayed getaway and his front left going on slow

Hamilton came off worse but it was all a self inflicted Mercedes problem, culminating in Lewis driving erratically.

Not sure how you see the SC benefiting Hamilton more than vettel?


The four and three seconds are bollocks, as they were immediately nullified by the SC.

It's simple: had the SC not come out, the Mercs would have been over seven seconds behind Vettel if they'd pitted directly. Whereas thanks to the SC, they were directly behind (+5 for Hamilton).

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 Post subject: Re: Hamilton vs. Vettel
PostPosted: Mon Apr 17, 2017 11:46 am 
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pokerman wrote:
Zoue wrote:
F1_Ernie wrote:
"We would have probably taken a different decision [in Bahrain] if Valtteri had run in the front with the problem on the tyres and Lewis would have been second. But with Vettel in between, there is nothing we could have done. That's why it was the perfect storm."

Thats what Wolff said after the race. Would it have made any difference? If Vettel was 2nd or 3rd surely he would have pit first. I can't see Merc letting Hamilton through if he was running 2nd and Vettel so close.

Hmm, not sure I agree. there was nothing to stop Mercedes from trying to undercut Vettel, for example, but Ferrari got there first...

Yep and the reason they didn't do that was because of their rules of engagement.

I think that the first pit was more about their rigid adherence to their strategy about when they should pit than the rules of engagement.

Their pre-race determination of when they should make the first stop handn't come yet and were taken off guard by Ferrari, who are widely believed to have better tire wear, when they pitted first.

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 Post subject: Re: Hamilton vs. Vettel
PostPosted: Mon Apr 17, 2017 11:46 am 
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pokerman wrote:
F1_Ernie wrote:
"We would have probably taken a different decision [in Bahrain] if Valtteri had run in the front with the problem on the tyres and Lewis would have been second. But with Vettel in between, there is nothing we could have done. That's why it was the perfect storm."

Thats what Wolff said after the race. Would it have made any difference? If Vettel was 2nd or 3rd surely he would have pit first. I can't see Merc letting Hamilton through if he was running 2nd and Vettel so close.

It's quite worrying because they are obviously still clueless, also what is this different decision they would have taken, given Hamilton the undercut which they could still have done with Hamilton running in 3rd place, or allowed Hamilton by which they only allowed Hamilton to do later in the race after he had repeatedly had to beg them and even promised to give the place back if he couldn't pass Vettel.

Even then they repeatedly stalled on making that decision, so I call bs on them doing anything if Hamilton had been running in second place.


I agree with you, just see it as Toto talking BS to cover Mercedes mistakes. It's all the press seem to be talking about today and there's no doubt Ferrari have the advantage where strategy is concerned.

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 Post subject: Re: Hamilton vs. Vettel
PostPosted: Mon Apr 17, 2017 11:47 am 
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F1_Ernie wrote:
http://www.autosport.com/news/report.php/id/129029/mercedes-ready-to-rethink-team-orders-approach?_ga=1.191436330.1831102167.1490342157

So Mercedes would have swapped cars that early.

I've not read the article but if they were prepared to do that then why the hesitation later in the race and why did Hamilton have to beg to be let by?

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 Post subject: Re: Hamilton vs. Vettel
PostPosted: Mon Apr 17, 2017 11:50 am 
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I wouldn't rule out Red Bull yet. Max is the driver that alone can make a difference. Beside that Vettel said during winter testing that Ferrari hard work in 2016 was masked by bad results in 2016. Behind the scenes Ferrari had huge reorganization and made huge progress. Ferrari weakness is 1 lap pace, but in races they have edge over Mercedes, so I think Vettel can win this year championship.

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 Post subject: Re: Hamilton vs. Vettel
PostPosted: Mon Apr 17, 2017 11:52 am 
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RaggedMan wrote:
pokerman wrote:
Zoue wrote:
F1_Ernie wrote:
"We would have probably taken a different decision [in Bahrain] if Valtteri had run in the front with the problem on the tyres and Lewis would have been second. But with Vettel in between, there is nothing we could have done. That's why it was the perfect storm."

Thats what Wolff said after the race. Would it have made any difference? If Vettel was 2nd or 3rd surely he would have pit first. I can't see Merc letting Hamilton through if he was running 2nd and Vettel so close.

Hmm, not sure I agree. there was nothing to stop Mercedes from trying to undercut Vettel, for example, but Ferrari got there first...

Yep and the reason they didn't do that was because of their rules of engagement.

I think that the first pit was more about their rigid adherence to their strategy about when they should pit than the rules of engagement.

Their pre-race determination of when they should make the first stop handn't come yet and were taken off guard by Ferrari, who are widely believed to have better tire wear, when they pitted first.

They should of at least reacted with Bottas to cover Vettel off then which would have left the track clear for Hamilton which further questions this order to let Hamilton by if he had been running directly behind Bottas, and even after Vettel had pitted there was still no order to let Hamilton pass Bottas.

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 Post subject: Re: Hamilton vs. Vettel
PostPosted: Mon Apr 17, 2017 11:55 am 
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pokerman wrote:
F1_Ernie wrote:
http://www.autosport.com/news/report.php/id/129029/mercedes-ready-to-rethink-team-orders-approach?_ga=1.191436330.1831102167.1490342157

So Mercedes would have swapped cars that early.

I've not read the article but if they were prepared to do that then why the hesitation later in the race and why did Hamilton have to beg to be let by?


"When you have a problem on the car like we had, that would have been a situation we would have considered to swap them but with a Ferrari in between, we couldn't"

Sorry I meant it more as a question, would they have swapped cars that early? I don't believe they would off.

Mercedes could of just pitted Hamilton early, pretty easy really.

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 Post subject: Re: Hamilton vs. Vettel
PostPosted: Mon Apr 17, 2017 12:28 pm 
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Zoue wrote:
F1_Ernie wrote:
"We would have probably taken a different decision [in Bahrain] if Valtteri had run in the front with the problem on the tyres and Lewis would have been second. But with Vettel in between, there is nothing we could have done. That's why it was the perfect storm."

Thats what Wolff said after the race. Would it have made any difference? If Vettel was 2nd or 3rd surely he would have pit first. I can't see Merc letting Hamilton through if he was running 2nd and Vettel so close.

Hmm, not sure I agree. there was nothing to stop Mercedes from trying to undercut Vettel, for example, but Ferrari got there first...

Exactly. They simply got caught napping yet again. By pitting Hamilton first they would have won the race.


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 Post subject: Re: Hamilton vs. Vettel
PostPosted: Mon Apr 17, 2017 12:28 pm 
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pokerman wrote:
RaggedMan wrote:
pokerman wrote:
Zoue wrote:
F1_Ernie wrote:
"We would have probably taken a different decision [in Bahrain] if Valtteri had run in the front with the problem on the tyres and Lewis would have been second. But with Vettel in between, there is nothing we could have done. That's why it was the perfect storm."

Thats what Wolff said after the race. Would it have made any difference? If Vettel was 2nd or 3rd surely he would have pit first. I can't see Merc letting Hamilton through if he was running 2nd and Vettel so close.

Hmm, not sure I agree. there was nothing to stop Mercedes from trying to undercut Vettel, for example, but Ferrari got there first...

Yep and the reason they didn't do that was because of their rules of engagement.

I think that the first pit was more about their rigid adherence to their strategy about when they should pit than the rules of engagement.

Their pre-race determination of when they should make the first stop handn't come yet and were taken off guard by Ferrari, who are widely believed to have better tire wear, when they pitted first.

They should of at least reacted with Bottas to cover Vettel off then which would have left the track clear for Hamilton which further questions this order to let Hamilton by if he had been running directly behind Bottas, and even after Vettel had pitted there was still no order to let Hamilton pass Bottas.

That's right they should've, but that they didn't wasn't because of their fairness doctrine it was because of their lack of flexibility in strategy especially in the early phases of a race. That's the distinction I'm making.

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 Post subject: Re: Hamilton vs. Vettel
PostPosted: Mon Apr 17, 2017 3:15 pm 
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There's no question that Mercedes have grown accidentally complacent and are slow to re-calibrate to the new landscape. There's a lot of time in the season for shifts in momentum and I don't expect them to keep being slow and having the worse executed strategies. In fact, their strength in qualifying can become a mighty hurdle for Ferrari to overcome if Mercedes start operating a 1-2 policy.


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 Post subject: Re: Hamilton vs. Vettel
PostPosted: Mon Apr 17, 2017 5:01 pm 
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Invade wrote:
There's no question that Mercedes have grown accidentally complacent and are slow to re-calibrate to the new landscape. There's a lot of time in the season for shifts in momentum and I don't expect them to keep being slow and having the worse executed strategies. In fact, their strength in qualifying can become a mighty hurdle for Ferrari to overcome if Mercedes start operating a 1-2 policy.


Mercedes have never been good on strategy, the pace of the car masked all the other weak areas of operation, anyone remember Malaysia '15 or Singapore '15 while it was obvious to everyone Vettel was long gone they were still telling their drivers the win is on!


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 Post subject: Re: Hamilton vs. Vettel
PostPosted: Mon Apr 17, 2017 5:17 pm 
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Rockie wrote:
Mercedes have never been good on strategy, the pace of the car masked all the other weak areas of operation, anyone remember Malaysia '15 or Singapore '15 while it was obvious to everyone Vettel was long gone they were still telling their drivers the win is on!


Mercedes decision to tell Hamilton to push his engine hard during the latter stages of the race yesterday may come back to bite them too. He was never ever going to catch and pass Seb but they kept telling him to push hard for it. He certainly showed some impressive pace and lap times, but at what cost to his engine?


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 Post subject: Re: Hamilton vs. Vettel
PostPosted: Mon Apr 17, 2017 6:05 pm 
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F1_Ernie wrote:
pokerman wrote:
F1_Ernie wrote:
http://www.autosport.com/news/report.php/id/129029/mercedes-ready-to-rethink-team-orders-approach?_ga=1.191436330.1831102167.1490342157

So Mercedes would have swapped cars that early.

I've not read the article but if they were prepared to do that then why the hesitation later in the race and why did Hamilton have to beg to be let by?


"When you have a problem on the car like we had, that would have been a situation we would have considered to swap them but with a Ferrari in between, we couldn't"

Sorry I meant it more as a question, would they have swapped cars that early? I don't believe they would off.

Mercedes could of just pitted Hamilton early, pretty easy really.

When Vettel pitted Hamilton immediately went 0.8s quicker than Bottas to close the gap to him, there was a perfect opportunity for them to give the order and if they had have done it would have been Hamilton first into the pits and he would have emerged out of the pits right behind Vettel, game on.

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 Post subject: Re: Hamilton vs. Vettel
PostPosted: Mon Apr 17, 2017 6:08 pm 
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RaggedMan wrote:
pokerman wrote:
RaggedMan wrote:
pokerman wrote:
Zoue wrote:
Hmm, not sure I agree. there was nothing to stop Mercedes from trying to undercut Vettel, for example, but Ferrari got there first...

Yep and the reason they didn't do that was because of their rules of engagement.

I think that the first pit was more about their rigid adherence to their strategy about when they should pit than the rules of engagement.

Their pre-race determination of when they should make the first stop handn't come yet and were taken off guard by Ferrari, who are widely believed to have better tire wear, when they pitted first.

They should of at least reacted with Bottas to cover Vettel off then which would have left the track clear for Hamilton which further questions this order to let Hamilton by if he had been running directly behind Bottas, and even after Vettel had pitted there was still no order to let Hamilton pass Bottas.

That's right they should've, but that they didn't wasn't because of their fairness doctrine it was because of their lack of flexibility in strategy especially in the early phases of a race. That's the distinction I'm making.

Yes which I mentioned before which goes against them saying that they would have let Hamilton pass much earlier in the race.

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 Post subject: Re: Hamilton vs. Vettel
PostPosted: Mon Apr 17, 2017 6:10 pm 
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Invade wrote:
There's no question that Mercedes have grown accidentally complacent and are slow to re-calibrate to the new landscape. There's a lot of time in the season for shifts in momentum and I don't expect them to keep being slow and having the worse executed strategies. In fact, their strength in qualifying can become a mighty hurdle for Ferrari to overcome if Mercedes start operating a 1-2 policy.

Indeed and whilst Bottas seemingly lacks speed that's what they need to do, if Bottas wants better then he needs to improve his performance.

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 Post subject: Re: Hamilton vs. Vettel
PostPosted: Mon Apr 17, 2017 6:11 pm 
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Rockie wrote:
Invade wrote:
There's no question that Mercedes have grown accidentally complacent and are slow to re-calibrate to the new landscape. There's a lot of time in the season for shifts in momentum and I don't expect them to keep being slow and having the worse executed strategies. In fact, their strength in qualifying can become a mighty hurdle for Ferrari to overcome if Mercedes start operating a 1-2 policy.


Mercedes have never been good on strategy, the pace of the car masked all the other weak areas of operation, anyone remember Malaysia '15 or Singapore '15 while it was obvious to everyone Vettel was long gone they were still telling their drivers the win is on!

Indeed a dominant car can mask a lot of shortcomings.

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 Post subject: Re: Hamilton vs. Vettel
PostPosted: Mon Apr 17, 2017 7:07 pm 
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sandman1347 wrote:
Zoue wrote:
F1_Ernie wrote:
"We would have probably taken a different decision [in Bahrain] if Valtteri had run in the front with the problem on the tyres and Lewis would have been second. But with Vettel in between, there is nothing we could have done. That's why it was the perfect storm."

Thats what Wolff said after the race. Would it have made any difference? If Vettel was 2nd or 3rd surely he would have pit first. I can't see Merc letting Hamilton through if he was running 2nd and Vettel so close.

Hmm, not sure I agree. there was nothing to stop Mercedes from trying to undercut Vettel, for example, but Ferrari got there first...

Exactly. They simply got caught napping yet again. By pitting Hamilton first they would have won the race.

Vettel was one of the first cars (if not the very 1st) of the grid that stopped for tires, it caught everyone by surprise and even if Mercedes pitted Bottas the very next lap, Vettel would have still taken the virtual lead (Hamilton on used tires, could not have gone faster than Vettel on new SS). I think at that time Mercedes were weighting up the possibility of stretching both their drivers to a 1 stop strategy (probably, only the SC regime which enabled a half-free pitstop changed it to a 2-stopper), seeing that anything else, would have given the lead to Vettel.

Certainly it wasnt an easy decision to make for the Mercedes strategist and I feel that if the positions on the track were reversed, Ferrari would have probably taken the same actions as Mercedes.

Only 3 weeks ago many were arguing of how wrong it was to pit Hamilton 1st whilst on the lead in this new formula 1 era, where overtaking on track is so difficult. And had Mercedes blinked 1st yesterday and had the SC helped Vettel get a free stop and the lead, we would have been singing the same song as in Melburne.

In hindsight, yes Mercedes were outsmarted in all the 3 races by Ferrari, but it was impossible to foresee that early stop for Vettel yesterday and from there on, nothing else bar a 1-stop strategy would have worked.


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 Post subject: Re: Hamilton vs. Vettel
PostPosted: Mon Apr 17, 2017 7:16 pm 
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If it was Hamilton in 2nd and Ferrari had two drivers in 1st and 3rd and the circumstances was exactly the same I don't believe Ferrari wouldn't of reacted and woukd one stop both cars. Specially when the leading car was 3 seconds a lap slower than cars pitting for new tyres and your letting both cars just drive around at that slow pace.

I actually feel the decision was very easy for Mercedes, the second I saw Vettel pit I said react. You have 2v1 in drivers at the very least you match Vettel.

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 Post subject: Re: Hamilton vs. Vettel
PostPosted: Mon Apr 17, 2017 7:29 pm 
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Migen wrote:
sandman1347 wrote:
Zoue wrote:
F1_Ernie wrote:
"We would have probably taken a different decision [in Bahrain] if Valtteri had run in the front with the problem on the tyres and Lewis would have been second. But with Vettel in between, there is nothing we could have done. That's why it was the perfect storm."

Thats what Wolff said after the race. Would it have made any difference? If Vettel was 2nd or 3rd surely he would have pit first. I can't see Merc letting Hamilton through if he was running 2nd and Vettel so close.

Hmm, not sure I agree. there was nothing to stop Mercedes from trying to undercut Vettel, for example, but Ferrari got there first...

Exactly. They simply got caught napping yet again. By pitting Hamilton first they would have won the race.

Vettel was one of the first cars (if not the very 1st) of the grid that stopped for tires, it caught everyone by surprise and even if Mercedes pitted Bottas the very next lap, Vettel would have still taken the virtual lead (Hamilton on used tires, could not have gone faster than Vettel on new SS). I think at that time Mercedes were weighting up the possibility of stretching both their drivers to a 1 stop strategy (probably, only the SC regime which enabled a half-free pitstop changed it to a 2-stopper), seeing that anything else, would have given the lead to Vettel.

Certainly it wasnt an easy decision to make for the Mercedes strategist and I feel that if the positions on the track were reversed, Ferrari would have probably taken the same actions as Mercedes.

Only 3 weeks ago many were arguing of how wrong it was to pit Hamilton 1st whilst on the lead in this new formula 1 era, where overtaking on track is so difficult. And had Mercedes blinked 1st yesterday and had the SC helped Vettel get a free stop and the lead, we would have been singing the same song as in Melburne.

In hindsight, yes Mercedes were outsmarted in all the 3 races by Ferrari, but it was impossible to foresee that early stop for Vettel yesterday and from there on, nothing else bar a 1-stop strategy would have worked.

I think you make a solid point but the difference is that Mercedes knew that Bottas was slow, they knew why he was slow and they knew that Hamilton would be MUCH faster if he got into clean air. Unlike the other teams, Mercedes knew this right from the start as they knew what was ailing Bottas in that opening stint.

None the less, they sat there and waited for Vettel to do what they could have done at any time. Felipe Massa was the first guy into the pits and he made up huge amounts of ground right away. Ferrari responded to this by pitting immediately on the next lap but Mercedes just sat there. Inexplicably, even when Vettel ate up several seconds per lap after switching tires, they still sat there doing nothing! Even when Max stopped and would have had the undercut, they still sat there! It took the safety car to wake them up apparently and then they had their drivers stacked up in the pits.

It wasn't well played by them at all no matter how you look at it but I do expect them to learn from this and improve.


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 Post subject: Re: Hamilton vs. Vettel
PostPosted: Mon Apr 17, 2017 8:08 pm 
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sandman1347 wrote:
Migen wrote:
sandman1347 wrote:
Zoue wrote:
F1_Ernie wrote:
"We would have probably taken a different decision [in Bahrain] if Valtteri had run in the front with the problem on the tyres and Lewis would have been second. But with Vettel in between, there is nothing we could have done. That's why it was the perfect storm."

Thats what Wolff said after the race. Would it have made any difference? If Vettel was 2nd or 3rd surely he would have pit first. I can't see Merc letting Hamilton through if he was running 2nd and Vettel so close.

Hmm, not sure I agree. there was nothing to stop Mercedes from trying to undercut Vettel, for example, but Ferrari got there first...

Exactly. They simply got caught napping yet again. By pitting Hamilton first they would have won the race.

Vettel was one of the first cars (if not the very 1st) of the grid that stopped for tires, it caught everyone by surprise and even if Mercedes pitted Bottas the very next lap, Vettel would have still taken the virtual lead (Hamilton on used tires, could not have gone faster than Vettel on new SS). I think at that time Mercedes were weighting up the possibility of stretching both their drivers to a 1 stop strategy (probably, only the SC regime which enabled a half-free pitstop changed it to a 2-stopper), seeing that anything else, would have given the lead to Vettel.

Certainly it wasnt an easy decision to make for the Mercedes strategist and I feel that if the positions on the track were reversed, Ferrari would have probably taken the same actions as Mercedes.

Only 3 weeks ago many were arguing of how wrong it was to pit Hamilton 1st whilst on the lead in this new formula 1 era, where overtaking on track is so difficult. And had Mercedes blinked 1st yesterday and had the SC helped Vettel get a free stop and the lead, we would have been singing the same song as in Melburne.

In hindsight, yes Mercedes were outsmarted in all the 3 races by Ferrari, but it was impossible to foresee that early stop for Vettel yesterday and from there on, nothing else bar a 1-stop strategy would have worked.

I think you make a solid point but the difference is that Mercedes knew that Bottas was slow, they knew why he was slow and they knew that Hamilton would be MUCH faster if he got into clean air. Unlike the other teams, Mercedes knew this right from the start as they knew what was ailing Bottas in that opening stint.

None the less, they sat there and waited for Vettel to do what they could have done at any time. Felipe Massa was the first guy into the pits and he made up huge amounts of ground right away. Ferrari responded to this by pitting immediately on the next lap but Mercedes just sat there. Inexplicably, even when Vettel ate up several seconds per lap after switching tires, they still sat there doing nothing! Even when Max stopped and would have had the undercut, they still sat there! It took the safety car to wake them up apparently and then they had their drivers stacked up in the pits.

It wasn't well played by them at all no matter how you look at it but I do expect them to learn from this and improve.

It seemed to be a case of if you don't know what to do then do nothing?

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 Post subject: Re: Hamilton vs. Vettel
PostPosted: Mon Apr 17, 2017 8:11 pm 
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sandman1347 wrote:
Migen wrote:
sandman1347 wrote:
Zoue wrote:
F1_Ernie wrote:
"We would have probably taken a different decision [in Bahrain] if Valtteri had run in the front with the problem on the tyres and Lewis would have been second. But with Vettel in between, there is nothing we could have done. That's why it was the perfect storm."

Thats what Wolff said after the race. Would it have made any difference? If Vettel was 2nd or 3rd surely he would have pit first. I can't see Merc letting Hamilton through if he was running 2nd and Vettel so close.

Hmm, not sure I agree. there was nothing to stop Mercedes from trying to undercut Vettel, for example, but Ferrari got there first...

Exactly. They simply got caught napping yet again. By pitting Hamilton first they would have won the race.

Vettel was one of the first cars (if not the very 1st) of the grid that stopped for tires, it caught everyone by surprise and even if Mercedes pitted Bottas the very next lap, Vettel would have still taken the virtual lead (Hamilton on used tires, could not have gone faster than Vettel on new SS). I think at that time Mercedes were weighting up the possibility of stretching both their drivers to a 1 stop strategy (probably, only the SC regime which enabled a half-free pitstop changed it to a 2-stopper), seeing that anything else, would have given the lead to Vettel.

Certainly it wasnt an easy decision to make for the Mercedes strategist and I feel that if the positions on the track were reversed, Ferrari would have probably taken the same actions as Mercedes.

Only 3 weeks ago many were arguing of how wrong it was to pit Hamilton 1st whilst on the lead in this new formula 1 era, where overtaking on track is so difficult. And had Mercedes blinked 1st yesterday and had the SC helped Vettel get a free stop and the lead, we would have been singing the same song as in Melburne.

In hindsight, yes Mercedes were outsmarted in all the 3 races by Ferrari, but it was impossible to foresee that early stop for Vettel yesterday and from there on, nothing else bar a 1-stop strategy would have worked.

I think you make a solid point but the difference is that Mercedes knew that Bottas was slow, they knew why he was slow and they knew that Hamilton would be MUCH faster if he got into clean air. Unlike the other teams, Mercedes knew this right from the start as they knew what was ailing Bottas in that opening stint.

None the less, they sat there and waited for Vettel to do what they could have done at any time. Felipe Massa was the first guy into the pits and he made up huge amounts of ground right away. Ferrari responded to this by pitting immediately on the next lap but Mercedes just sat there. Inexplicably, even when Vettel ate up several seconds per lap after switching tires, they still sat there doing nothing! Even when Max stopped and would have had the undercut, they still sat there! It took the safety car to wake them up apparently and then they had their drivers stacked up in the pits.

It wasn't well played by them at all no matter how you look at it but I do expect them to learn from this and improve.

Yes it lends even more weight to the argument that they should have pitted Hamilton earlier when they knew Bottas was holding up him and Vettel


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 Post subject: Re: Hamilton vs. Vettel
PostPosted: Mon Apr 17, 2017 8:14 pm 
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Zoue wrote:
sandman1347 wrote:
Migen wrote:
sandman1347 wrote:
Zoue wrote:
Hmm, not sure I agree. there was nothing to stop Mercedes from trying to undercut Vettel, for example, but Ferrari got there first...

Exactly. They simply got caught napping yet again. By pitting Hamilton first they would have won the race.

Vettel was one of the first cars (if not the very 1st) of the grid that stopped for tires, it caught everyone by surprise and even if Mercedes pitted Bottas the very next lap, Vettel would have still taken the virtual lead (Hamilton on used tires, could not have gone faster than Vettel on new SS). I think at that time Mercedes were weighting up the possibility of stretching both their drivers to a 1 stop strategy (probably, only the SC regime which enabled a half-free pitstop changed it to a 2-stopper), seeing that anything else, would have given the lead to Vettel.

Certainly it wasnt an easy decision to make for the Mercedes strategist and I feel that if the positions on the track were reversed, Ferrari would have probably taken the same actions as Mercedes.

Only 3 weeks ago many were arguing of how wrong it was to pit Hamilton 1st whilst on the lead in this new formula 1 era, where overtaking on track is so difficult. And had Mercedes blinked 1st yesterday and had the SC helped Vettel get a free stop and the lead, we would have been singing the same song as in Melburne.

In hindsight, yes Mercedes were outsmarted in all the 3 races by Ferrari, but it was impossible to foresee that early stop for Vettel yesterday and from there on, nothing else bar a 1-stop strategy would have worked.

I think you make a solid point but the difference is that Mercedes knew that Bottas was slow, they knew why he was slow and they knew that Hamilton would be MUCH faster if he got into clean air. Unlike the other teams, Mercedes knew this right from the start as they knew what was ailing Bottas in that opening stint.

None the less, they sat there and waited for Vettel to do what they could have done at any time. Felipe Massa was the first guy into the pits and he made up huge amounts of ground right away. Ferrari responded to this by pitting immediately on the next lap but Mercedes just sat there. Inexplicably, even when Vettel ate up several seconds per lap after switching tires, they still sat there doing nothing! Even when Max stopped and would have had the undercut, they still sat there! It took the safety car to wake them up apparently and then they had their drivers stacked up in the pits.

It wasn't well played by them at all no matter how you look at it but I do expect them to learn from this and improve.

Yes it lends even more weight to the argument that they should have pitted Hamilton earlier when they knew Bottas was holding up him and Vettel

Indeed but that would have broken their treasured rules of engagement were the leading driver can not be undercut to his own disadvantage.

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 Post subject: Re: Hamilton vs. Vettel
PostPosted: Mon Apr 17, 2017 8:18 pm 
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pokerman wrote:
Zoue wrote:
sandman1347 wrote:
Migen wrote:
sandman1347 wrote:
Exactly. They simply got caught napping yet again. By pitting Hamilton first they would have won the race.

Vettel was one of the first cars (if not the very 1st) of the grid that stopped for tires, it caught everyone by surprise and even if Mercedes pitted Bottas the very next lap, Vettel would have still taken the virtual lead (Hamilton on used tires, could not have gone faster than Vettel on new SS). I think at that time Mercedes were weighting up the possibility of stretching both their drivers to a 1 stop strategy (probably, only the SC regime which enabled a half-free pitstop changed it to a 2-stopper), seeing that anything else, would have given the lead to Vettel.

Certainly it wasnt an easy decision to make for the Mercedes strategist and I feel that if the positions on the track were reversed, Ferrari would have probably taken the same actions as Mercedes.

Only 3 weeks ago many were arguing of how wrong it was to pit Hamilton 1st whilst on the lead in this new formula 1 era, where overtaking on track is so difficult. And had Mercedes blinked 1st yesterday and had the SC helped Vettel get a free stop and the lead, we would have been singing the same song as in Melburne.

In hindsight, yes Mercedes were outsmarted in all the 3 races by Ferrari, but it was impossible to foresee that early stop for Vettel yesterday and from there on, nothing else bar a 1-stop strategy would have worked.

I think you make a solid point but the difference is that Mercedes knew that Bottas was slow, they knew why he was slow and they knew that Hamilton would be MUCH faster if he got into clean air. Unlike the other teams, Mercedes knew this right from the start as they knew what was ailing Bottas in that opening stint.

None the less, they sat there and waited for Vettel to do what they could have done at any time. Felipe Massa was the first guy into the pits and he made up huge amounts of ground right away. Ferrari responded to this by pitting immediately on the next lap but Mercedes just sat there. Inexplicably, even when Vettel ate up several seconds per lap after switching tires, they still sat there doing nothing! Even when Max stopped and would have had the undercut, they still sat there! It took the safety car to wake them up apparently and then they had their drivers stacked up in the pits.

It wasn't well played by them at all no matter how you look at it but I do expect them to learn from this and improve.

Yes it lends even more weight to the argument that they should have pitted Hamilton earlier when they knew Bottas was holding up him and Vettel

Indeed but that would have broken their treasured rules of engagement were the leading driver can not be undercut to his own disadvantage.

Yes I'm not convinced any team is that wedded to policy that they wouldn't adapt if it meant getting ahead of the opposition. Mercedes aren't the only team with the "leader pits first" rule, but it would be strange indeed if they didn't have built in allowances for mitigating circumstances


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 Post subject: Re: Hamilton vs. Vettel
PostPosted: Mon Apr 17, 2017 8:21 pm 
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Migen wrote:
In hindsight, yes Mercedes were outsmarted in all the 3 races by Ferrari, but it was impossible to foresee that early stop for Vettel yesterday and from there on, nothing else bar a 1-stop strategy would have worked.


I don't agree actually. If they had pitted Hamilton directly after Vettel they would have lost track position, but with Vettel 1 and Hamilton 2 they had a shot at undercutting Vettel with an early second stop.

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 Post subject: Re: Hamilton vs. Vettel
PostPosted: Mon Apr 17, 2017 8:22 pm 
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Zoue wrote:
pokerman wrote:
Zoue wrote:
sandman1347 wrote:
Migen wrote:
Vettel was one of the first cars (if not the very 1st) of the grid that stopped for tires, it caught everyone by surprise and even if Mercedes pitted Bottas the very next lap, Vettel would have still taken the virtual lead (Hamilton on used tires, could not have gone faster than Vettel on new SS). I think at that time Mercedes were weighting up the possibility of stretching both their drivers to a 1 stop strategy (probably, only the SC regime which enabled a half-free pitstop changed it to a 2-stopper), seeing that anything else, would have given the lead to Vettel.

Certainly it wasnt an easy decision to make for the Mercedes strategist and I feel that if the positions on the track were reversed, Ferrari would have probably taken the same actions as Mercedes.

Only 3 weeks ago many were arguing of how wrong it was to pit Hamilton 1st whilst on the lead in this new formula 1 era, where overtaking on track is so difficult. And had Mercedes blinked 1st yesterday and had the SC helped Vettel get a free stop and the lead, we would have been singing the same song as in Melburne.

In hindsight, yes Mercedes were outsmarted in all the 3 races by Ferrari, but it was impossible to foresee that early stop for Vettel yesterday and from there on, nothing else bar a 1-stop strategy would have worked.

I think you make a solid point but the difference is that Mercedes knew that Bottas was slow, they knew why he was slow and they knew that Hamilton would be MUCH faster if he got into clean air. Unlike the other teams, Mercedes knew this right from the start as they knew what was ailing Bottas in that opening stint.

None the less, they sat there and waited for Vettel to do what they could have done at any time. Felipe Massa was the first guy into the pits and he made up huge amounts of ground right away. Ferrari responded to this by pitting immediately on the next lap but Mercedes just sat there. Inexplicably, even when Vettel ate up several seconds per lap after switching tires, they still sat there doing nothing! Even when Max stopped and would have had the undercut, they still sat there! It took the safety car to wake them up apparently and then they had their drivers stacked up in the pits.

It wasn't well played by them at all no matter how you look at it but I do expect them to learn from this and improve.

Yes it lends even more weight to the argument that they should have pitted Hamilton earlier when they knew Bottas was holding up him and Vettel

Indeed but that would have broken their treasured rules of engagement were the leading driver can not be undercut to his own disadvantage.

Yes I'm not convinced any team is that wedded to policy that they wouldn't adapt if it meant getting ahead of the opposition. Mercedes aren't the only team with the "leader pits first" rule, but it would be strange indeed if they didn't have built in allowances for mitigating circumstances

We are talking about Mercedes and in particular Toto Wolff here.

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 Post subject: Re: Hamilton vs. Vettel
PostPosted: Mon Apr 17, 2017 8:42 pm 
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mds wrote:
Migen wrote:
In hindsight, yes Mercedes were outsmarted in all the 3 races by Ferrari, but it was impossible to foresee that early stop for Vettel yesterday and from there on, nothing else bar a 1-stop strategy would have worked.


I don't agree actually. If they had pitted Hamilton directly after Vettel they would have lost track position, but with Vettel 1 and Hamilton 2 they had a shot at undercutting Vettel with an early second stop.


Spot on :thumbup: Mercedes always seem so slow to react. Plus there would of been the slim chance of an overtake and being able to put pressure on Vettel.

Mercedes just let Hamilton follow Bottas around for a few laps going 2-3 seconds slower and doing more damage each lap they sleep

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 Post subject: Re: Hamilton vs. Vettel
PostPosted: Mon Apr 17, 2017 11:12 pm 
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F1_Ernie wrote:
mds wrote:
Migen wrote:
In hindsight, yes Mercedes were outsmarted in all the 3 races by Ferrari, but it was impossible to foresee that early stop for Vettel yesterday and from there on, nothing else bar a 1-stop strategy would have worked.


I don't agree actually. If they had pitted Hamilton directly after Vettel they would have lost track position, but with Vettel 1 and Hamilton 2 they had a shot at undercutting Vettel with an early second stop.


Spot on :thumbup: Mercedes always seem so slow to react. Plus there would of been the slim chance of an overtake and being able to put pressure on Vettel.

Mercedes just let Hamilton follow Bottas around for a few laps going 2-3 seconds slower and doing more damage each lap they sleep



The Mercedes could not last like the Ferrari on the SS!


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 Post subject: Re: Hamilton vs. Vettel
PostPosted: Mon Apr 17, 2017 11:22 pm 
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Rockie wrote:
F1_Ernie wrote:
mds wrote:
Migen wrote:
In hindsight, yes Mercedes were outsmarted in all the 3 races by Ferrari, but it was impossible to foresee that early stop for Vettel yesterday and from there on, nothing else bar a 1-stop strategy would have worked.


I don't agree actually. If they had pitted Hamilton directly after Vettel they would have lost track position, but with Vettel 1 and Hamilton 2 they had a shot at undercutting Vettel with an early second stop.


Spot on :thumbup: Mercedes always seem so slow to react. Plus there would of been the slim chance of an overtake and being able to put pressure on Vettel.

Mercedes just let Hamilton follow Bottas around for a few laps going 2-3 seconds slower and doing more damage each lap they sleep



The Mercedes could not last like the Ferrari on the SS!


How do you know? Mercedes said the softs was the better tyre. The gap would have defiantly of been smaller before the 2nd pit stops. Once Hamilton got past Bottas he reduced the gap to Vettel.

Mds mentioned pitting Lewis one lap after Vettel, if Mercedes did this I expect they would match Vettel with the SS anyway unless like I said originally the softs was the best tyre or change to SS at the end to attack Vettel. Or undercut Vettel at the 2nd pit stops, gives Mercedes a few options.

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 Post subject: Re: Hamilton vs. Vettel
PostPosted: Mon Apr 17, 2017 11:24 pm 
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Rockie wrote:
F1_Ernie wrote:
mds wrote:
Migen wrote:
In hindsight, yes Mercedes were outsmarted in all the 3 races by Ferrari, but it was impossible to foresee that early stop for Vettel yesterday and from there on, nothing else bar a 1-stop strategy would have worked.


I don't agree actually. If they had pitted Hamilton directly after Vettel they would have lost track position, but with Vettel 1 and Hamilton 2 they had a shot at undercutting Vettel with an early second stop.


Spot on :thumbup: Mercedes always seem so slow to react. Plus there would of been the slim chance of an overtake and being able to put pressure on Vettel.

Mercedes just let Hamilton follow Bottas around for a few laps going 2-3 seconds slower and doing more damage each lap they sleep



The Mercedes could not last like the Ferrari on the SS!

I don't see any mention of the tyres?

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