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Who Will Win the Championship
Hamilton 60%  60%  [ 58 ]
Vettel 38%  38%  [ 36 ]
Someone Else (Please say who) 2%  2%  [ 2 ]
Total votes : 96
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 Post subject: Hamilton vs. Vettel
PostPosted: Sun Apr 09, 2017 2:42 pm 
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Okay so now that we're a couple of races into the season, it seems apparent that this will almost certainly be a fight between Hamilton and Vettel for the championship. Mercedes and Ferrari are clearly well ahead of the chasing pack and both Hamilton and Vettel seem to have a clear edge over their teammates as well.

So who do you think will win? They are even on points right now so it's as good a time as any to make a pick. An explanation of your thoughts to flesh out the pick would be great too.


Last edited by sandman1347 on Mon Apr 10, 2017 9:12 pm, edited 1 time in total.

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PostPosted: Sun Apr 09, 2017 2:53 pm 
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I think Hamilton and Vettel are close in speed, with Hamilton having the edge. I also think the Merc is very slightly quicker. So I think Hamilton will

That is, barring any reliability problems!

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PostPosted: Sun Apr 09, 2017 3:14 pm 
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Fine with Hamilton as I think Mercedes will win the development race.


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PostPosted: Sun Apr 09, 2017 3:22 pm 
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Hamilton I think.

I'm assuming both cars have equal reliability for the purpose of this.

If the cars remain as they are now for the season I think Mercedes have a slight advantage in qualifying and they are pretty close in race pace, with Ferrari possibly having the edge (today it seemed Mercedes has a slight advantage or that the cars are equal but with the vastly different races for Hamilton and Vettel it's hard to read too much into it). With the new regulations making qualifying more important than ever I expect this will be the deciding factor in favour of Hamilton.

If the cars relative performance shifts I would expect this to be in Mercedes favour based on previous years, but then I wouldn't have expected Ferrari to build a car as competitive as this based on previous years either so who knows.


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PostPosted: Sun Apr 09, 2017 3:46 pm 
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Mercedes (or at least Mercedes + Hamilton) seem to have the edge in qualifying and I think that will prove decisive in a lot of the races with overtaking looking to be more difficult this year.


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PostPosted: Sun Apr 09, 2017 4:54 pm 
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I have invoked dark forces and pranced naked in moonlight so if all that works its Ferrari's year.


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PostPosted: Sun Apr 09, 2017 5:08 pm 
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mikeyg123 wrote:
Fine with Hamilton as I think Mercedes will win the development race.

I have a nagging suspicion about this myself. Ferrari have much to prove in this area considering their recent track record. Maybe they'll surprise us but I am half expecting them to fall behind as the season progresses.


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PostPosted: Sun Apr 09, 2017 5:08 pm 
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I still think the Mercedes is the slightly better car overall, particularly in qualifying, and I think Lewis is too good to let an advantage like that pass him by. Vettel will continue to push him, but the odds are in Lewis' favour IMO


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PostPosted: Sun Apr 09, 2017 5:54 pm 
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Pains me to say it but I think vettel will take it. When in a car he likes (like this year) He is basically as quick as Hamilton but more consistent, in my opinion.

Don't get me wrong I think if each was on their A game for one race Hamilton would put him down, but that's not how the WDC works

I hope I'm proven wrong however, development race will come into it , but taking that out of it it's two cents

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PostPosted: Sun Apr 09, 2017 6:49 pm 
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If the packages stay as they are all year, I think Hamilton would edge it as the Hamilton-Mercedes package is faster in qualifying and he is getting off the line great, so that should translate to leading most races at the start and with most races being a one stopper its just avoiding getting undercut or ensuring he doesn't come into traffic if he pits first.

Having said that, Ferrari did and would have taken the lead in both races with strategy but most races won't give the option for that - it will mostly be dry with few opportunities.

Once you factor in development and reliability, it leans even more towards Mercedes. I would put it at Hamilton 75%, Vettel 25%. Both are also fantastic in the wet, the best along with Max and Alonso.

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PostPosted: Sun Apr 09, 2017 7:14 pm 
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Like it happens every year, Ferrari will fall behind in the development race as the season progresses.


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PostPosted: Sun Apr 09, 2017 9:25 pm 
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It should still be Vettel, assuming Ferrari can keep up in development. Hamilton got lucky with the safety cars in this race, and this was a very strong Hamilton track and a very strong Mercedes track to boot. I still think the Ferrari is the quicker race car overall, and that should give them the edge over a season.

That said, if they can't keep up on development they won't win. So there is that to think about.

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PostPosted: Mon Apr 10, 2017 5:53 am 
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Whilst I have no idea what a brass tack is, or even less how to get down to one, I predict the WDC to go to Vettel. Although that requires Ferrari to be on par with Mercedes in the development race, if they fall behind it will be a relatively easy WDC for Lewis.

Edit: In other words, what Exediron said :lol:

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PostPosted: Mon Apr 10, 2017 6:08 am 
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Hamilton. A lot of comments saying we should expect Mercedes to beat Ferrari in the development race, but I can't see why. Right now Ferrari has the momentum after using the rule changes to recover from the disadvantage they had last year. If anything, we should expect Ferrari to keep developing faster and get an advantage as the season unfolds. Still, that's too unpredictable. As it is right now it doesn't look like one team has a net advantage over the other, which is great. The cars seem so close in performance and reliability that it would be up to the drivers to make the difference, and in that regard Hamilton has the edge on Vettel.


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PostPosted: Mon Apr 10, 2017 10:41 am 
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If it continues like it does, I see both drivers being number 1's as early as race 5. In fact, Ferrari made Hamiltons life a lot easier yesterday by not moving Kimi out of the way. If Hamilton and Vettel 1-2 the next race and either Kimi or Bottas DNF I see that driver already being number 2 for the year as the will be 45-50 points down already and clearly slower. Hamilton probably would have been made number 2 last year after (43 points behind) 4 races if Nico was behind or in a tight battle with Vettel for 1st.

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PostPosted: Mon Apr 10, 2017 12:19 pm 
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I think Lewis will take it, but Seb will be a close second.

Could all be down to the development race this one.

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PostPosted: Mon Apr 10, 2017 12:50 pm 
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jrwb6e wrote:
Like it happens every year, Ferrari will fall behind in the development race as the season progresses.


Yep...I've seen that movie, many times before. Ferrari brings in updates and they end up hurting the car rather than helping it.


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PostPosted: Mon Apr 10, 2017 12:57 pm 
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I must admit, I'm surprised at how lopsided the voting is at the moment. I would have thought it would be about 50/50. I guess it boils down to people not having much faith in Ferrari's in-season development.


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PostPosted: Mon Apr 10, 2017 1:00 pm 
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sandman1347 wrote:
I must admit, I'm surprised at how lopsided the voting is at the moment. I would have thought it would be about 50/50. I guess it boils down to people not having much faith in Ferrari's in-season development.


Yeah I think that's what swayed me anyway. All things being equal I'd go for Lewis anyway but if Seb was in the Red Bull instead of Ferrari and we had the same situation I think i'd have swung towards them.

Harsh on Ferrari but 2013 and 2016 are still pretty fresh in the memory.

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PostPosted: Mon Apr 10, 2017 1:57 pm 
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Lotus49 wrote:
sandman1347 wrote:
I must admit, I'm surprised at how lopsided the voting is at the moment. I would have thought it would be about 50/50. I guess it boils down to people not having much faith in Ferrari's in-season development.


Yeah I think that's what swayed me anyway. All things being equal I'd go for Lewis anyway but if Seb was in the Red Bull instead of Ferrari and we had the same situation I think i'd have swung towards them.

Harsh on Ferrari but 2013 and 2016 are still pretty fresh in the memory.

I think development is very hard to judge and to be fair last year Ferrari concentrated on getting it right for the new regs, which is reflected in the way they dropped off in the 2nd half. But at best they were only ever going to be bridesmaids, so it's understandable. It's not likely the same will happen this year, not when they have a chance of the main prize.

I think the votes reflect the fact that the Mercedes still looks slightly stronger, particularly in qualifying trim, which gives Lewis a fairly hefty advantage on Sundays


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PostPosted: Mon Apr 10, 2017 2:00 pm 
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Lotus49 wrote:
sandman1347 wrote:
I must admit, I'm surprised at how lopsided the voting is at the moment. I would have thought it would be about 50/50. I guess it boils down to people not having much faith in Ferrari's in-season development.


Yeah I think that's what swayed me anyway. All things being equal I'd go for Lewis anyway but if Seb was in the Red Bull instead of Ferrari and we had the same situation I think i'd have swung towards them.

Harsh on Ferrari but 2013 and 2016 are still pretty fresh in the memory.


I think part of the reason they dropped off in 2016 was that they switched to concentrating on developing for this year - so far, it looks like it was worth it.

Not that I'm saying I do really trust Ferrari to successfully develop through the season, but I'd like to remain optimistic.

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PostPosted: Mon Apr 10, 2017 2:04 pm 
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Zoue wrote:
Lotus49 wrote:
sandman1347 wrote:
I must admit, I'm surprised at how lopsided the voting is at the moment. I would have thought it would be about 50/50. I guess it boils down to people not having much faith in Ferrari's in-season development.


Yeah I think that's what swayed me anyway. All things being equal I'd go for Lewis anyway but if Seb was in the Red Bull instead of Ferrari and we had the same situation I think i'd have swung towards them.

Harsh on Ferrari but 2013 and 2016 are still pretty fresh in the memory.

I think development is very hard to judge and to be fair last year Ferrari concentrated on getting it right for the new regs, which is reflected in the way they dropped off in the 2nd half. But at best they were only ever going to be bridesmaids, so it's understandable. It's not likely the same will happen this year, not when they have a chance of the main prize.

I think the votes reflect the fact that the Mercedes still looks slightly stronger, particularly in qualifying trim, which gives Lewis a fairly hefty advantage on Sundays

Not sure where you're seeing that. To me, the cars are pretty much even and I think that's the only logical conclusion at this point. Certainly there is no way to perceive Mercedes as better on Sundays right now and the notion that they are better on Saturdays is only supported by Hamilton setting pole position by a narrow margin (which he wouldn't necessarily need a car advantage to do).


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PostPosted: Mon Apr 10, 2017 2:08 pm 
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@ Zoue and Herb

If they did stop early in 2016 then that's fair enough, they certainly brought a well rounded and thought out (Especially around the sidepods) package straight away so it makes sense.

I'm still a bit apprehensive about them keeping up though but I'd love to be wrong.



PS We need multi quote around here.(Or someone needs to point it out to me :D )

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PostPosted: Mon Apr 10, 2017 2:13 pm 
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Lotus49 wrote:
sandman1347 wrote:
I must admit, I'm surprised at how lopsided the voting is at the moment. I would have thought it would be about 50/50. I guess it boils down to people not having much faith in Ferrari's in-season development.


Yeah I think that's what swayed me anyway. All things being equal I'd go for Lewis anyway but if Seb was in the Red Bull instead of Ferrari and we had the same situation I think i'd have swung towards them.

Harsh on Ferrari but 2013 and 2016 are still pretty fresh in the memory.


And also Red Bull are mighty in development. They are running some part of last years energy store.
The new one is reported lighter. Renault have a big update pencilled in for Canada. Then Red Bull are masters of aero updates and they haven't fully locked down the balance of the RB13 yet.

So based on this, and also Ferrari's past poor history of in season development, I think Ham might win the WDC by a big margin. Potentially Max or Ric might even be his nearest challenger if Red Bull move in front of both Merc and Ferrari by the end of the year...

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PostPosted: Mon Apr 10, 2017 2:16 pm 
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Randine wrote:
Lotus49 wrote:
sandman1347 wrote:
I must admit, I'm surprised at how lopsided the voting is at the moment. I would have thought it would be about 50/50. I guess it boils down to people not having much faith in Ferrari's in-season development.


Yeah I think that's what swayed me anyway. All things being equal I'd go for Lewis anyway but if Seb was in the Red Bull instead of Ferrari and we had the same situation I think i'd have swung towards them.

Harsh on Ferrari but 2013 and 2016 are still pretty fresh in the memory.


And also Red Bull are mighty in development. They are running some part of last years energy store.
The new one is reported lighter. Renault have a big update pencilled in for Canada. Then Red Bull are masters of aero updates and they haven't fully locked down the balance of the RB13 yet.

So based on this, and also Ferrari's past poor history of in season development, I think Ham might win the WDC by a big margin. Potentially Max or Ric might even be his nearest challenger if Red Bull move in front of both Merc and Ferrari by the end of the year...

They were a second off the pace in China. i think it's a tall order for them to catch Mercedes or Ferrari this season. In fact, my gut tells me that Renault and not RBR will eventually become the third contender in this era. I think RBR will struggle to keep up with works teams. Maybe I'm insane but I really think that.


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PostPosted: Mon Apr 10, 2017 2:23 pm 
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sandman1347 wrote:
Zoue wrote:
Lotus49 wrote:
sandman1347 wrote:
I must admit, I'm surprised at how lopsided the voting is at the moment. I would have thought it would be about 50/50. I guess it boils down to people not having much faith in Ferrari's in-season development.


Yeah I think that's what swayed me anyway. All things being equal I'd go for Lewis anyway but if Seb was in the Red Bull instead of Ferrari and we had the same situation I think i'd have swung towards them.

Harsh on Ferrari but 2013 and 2016 are still pretty fresh in the memory.

I think development is very hard to judge and to be fair last year Ferrari concentrated on getting it right for the new regs, which is reflected in the way they dropped off in the 2nd half. But at best they were only ever going to be bridesmaids, so it's understandable. It's not likely the same will happen this year, not when they have a chance of the main prize.

I think the votes reflect the fact that the Mercedes still looks slightly stronger, particularly in qualifying trim, which gives Lewis a fairly hefty advantage on Sundays

Not sure where you're seeing that. To me, the cars are pretty much even and I think that's the only logical conclusion at this point. Certainly there is no way to perceive Mercedes as better on Sundays right now and the notion that they are better on Saturdays is only supported by Hamilton setting pole position by a narrow margin (which he wouldn't necessarily need a car advantage to do).


I think it's more about Seb only very narrowly beating Bottas both times despite having a reasonable margin to Kimi and not making any big errors going by the reasons I've seen anyway.

You'd have to have Bottas pinned as fairly quicker than Seb and much quicker than Kimi to come out to a Ferrari advantage and while the latter sounds feasible right now the former doesn't for the people thinking Mercedes have a small advantage on a Saturday.

Which could well be harsh on Bottas but it's a bit early to elevate him to that kind of standing based on not even getting within a tenth of Lewis yet never mind actually beating him a few times like even Kova and with respect Button did. And I don't think too many would pick them over Seb in a qually battle.

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PostPosted: Mon Apr 10, 2017 2:28 pm 
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sandman1347 wrote:
Randine wrote:
Lotus49 wrote:
sandman1347 wrote:
I must admit, I'm surprised at how lopsided the voting is at the moment. I would have thought it would be about 50/50. I guess it boils down to people not having much faith in Ferrari's in-season development.


Yeah I think that's what swayed me anyway. All things being equal I'd go for Lewis anyway but if Seb was in the Red Bull instead of Ferrari and we had the same situation I think i'd have swung towards them.

Harsh on Ferrari but 2013 and 2016 are still pretty fresh in the memory.


And also Red Bull are mighty in development. They are running some part of last years energy store.
The new one is reported lighter. Renault have a big update pencilled in for Canada. Then Red Bull are masters of aero updates and they haven't fully locked down the balance of the RB13 yet.

So based on this, and also Ferrari's past poor history of in season development, I think Ham might win the WDC by a big margin. Potentially Max or Ric might even be his nearest challenger if Red Bull move in front of both Merc and Ferrari by the end of the year...

They were a second off the pace in China. i think it's a tall order for them to catch Mercedes or Ferrari this season. In fact, my gut tells me that Renault and not RBR will eventually become the third contender in this era. I think RBR will struggle to keep up with works teams. Maybe I'm insane but I really think that.


Yeah a big ask. Only plus point is they do have free lap time coming, probably over half that gap(5-7ths I've seen suggested),from Renault around Canada?.

Car needs work though but if there was a team you'd put your house on to get that part right it's probably them.

And I don't think you're insane, Renault win when they come in as a works team, it's what they do, but they really need to sign a star name in the technical department. If they pinched Key I think I could be convinced.

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PostPosted: Mon Apr 10, 2017 2:33 pm 
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Lotus49 wrote:
sandman1347 wrote:
Zoue wrote:
Lotus49 wrote:
sandman1347 wrote:
I must admit, I'm surprised at how lopsided the voting is at the moment. I would have thought it would be about 50/50. I guess it boils down to people not having much faith in Ferrari's in-season development.


Yeah I think that's what swayed me anyway. All things being equal I'd go for Lewis anyway but if Seb was in the Red Bull instead of Ferrari and we had the same situation I think i'd have swung towards them.

Harsh on Ferrari but 2013 and 2016 are still pretty fresh in the memory.

I think development is very hard to judge and to be fair last year Ferrari concentrated on getting it right for the new regs, which is reflected in the way they dropped off in the 2nd half. But at best they were only ever going to be bridesmaids, so it's understandable. It's not likely the same will happen this year, not when they have a chance of the main prize.

I think the votes reflect the fact that the Mercedes still looks slightly stronger, particularly in qualifying trim, which gives Lewis a fairly hefty advantage on Sundays

Not sure where you're seeing that. To me, the cars are pretty much even and I think that's the only logical conclusion at this point. Certainly there is no way to perceive Mercedes as better on Sundays right now and the notion that they are better on Saturdays is only supported by Hamilton setting pole position by a narrow margin (which he wouldn't necessarily need a car advantage to do).


I think it's more about Seb only very narrowly beating Bottas both times despite having a reasonable margin to Kimi and not making any big errors going by the reasons I've seen anyway.

You'd have to have Bottas pinned as fairly quicker than Seb and much quicker than Kimi to come out to a Ferrari advantage and while the latter sounds feasible right now the former doesn't for the people thinking Mercedes have a small advantage on a Saturday.

Which could well be harsh on Bottas but it's a bit early to elevate him to that kind of standing based on not even getting within a tenth of Lewis yet never mind actually beating him a few times like even Kova and with respect Button did. And I don't think too many would pick them over Seb in a qually battle.

Button was beaten by Hamilton in qualifying by embarrassing margins at times when they were teammates. You won't see any driver completely shut out their teammate in the qualifying battle but Bottas is certainly a quick single lap driver. He bested Massa in qualifying in the same car over a 3 year period of time. Vettel lost out to Daniel over a single lap in the one season they spent as teammates so it's not impossible that he and Bottas have similar single lap performance.

The fact is that Vettel has out-qualified Bottas in both races so Valteri wouldn't have to be better than him as a qualifier to have the results he has had. Kimi has performed poorly in qualifying for years. You can go back to his WDC season in 2007 and see that he was out-performed in qualy by Massa that year (as well as every other year that they were teammates). Kimi is the only one of the four drivers at Merc and Ferrari who is a known poor qualifier and he has also struggled with setup in the first two rounds so I don't think he provides a valid comparison point to three drivers who have performed well and generally been within very close margins of each other in qualifying.


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PostPosted: Mon Apr 10, 2017 2:45 pm 
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Covalent wrote:
Whilst I have no idea what a brass tack is, or even less how to get down to one, I predict the WDC to go to Vettel. Although that requires Ferrari to be on par with Mercedes in the development race, if they fall behind it will be a relatively easy WDC for Lewis.

Edit: In other words, what Exediron said :lol:

Off topic but...
Often idioms don't translate well, but the way they come into being fascinates me. Often they make perfect sense in their native language and the meaning is often easily understood but I had never considered this one and nothing springs to mind as an origin and apparently nobody is sure exactly what the meaning really refers to but the first known usage originates from a Texas newspaper in the 1860's.

http://www.phrases.org.uk/meanings/get-down-to-brass-tacks.html

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PostPosted: Mon Apr 10, 2017 3:01 pm 
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sandman1347 wrote:
Lotus49 wrote:
sandman1347 wrote:
Zoue wrote:
Lotus49 wrote:
Yeah I think that's what swayed me anyway. All things being equal I'd go for Lewis anyway but if Seb was in the Red Bull instead of Ferrari and we had the same situation I think i'd have swung towards them.

Harsh on Ferrari but 2013 and 2016 are still pretty fresh in the memory.

I think development is very hard to judge and to be fair last year Ferrari concentrated on getting it right for the new regs, which is reflected in the way they dropped off in the 2nd half. But at best they were only ever going to be bridesmaids, so it's understandable. It's not likely the same will happen this year, not when they have a chance of the main prize.

I think the votes reflect the fact that the Mercedes still looks slightly stronger, particularly in qualifying trim, which gives Lewis a fairly hefty advantage on Sundays

Not sure where you're seeing that. To me, the cars are pretty much even and I think that's the only logical conclusion at this point. Certainly there is no way to perceive Mercedes as better on Sundays right now and the notion that they are better on Saturdays is only supported by Hamilton setting pole position by a narrow margin (which he wouldn't necessarily need a car advantage to do).


I think it's more about Seb only very narrowly beating Bottas both times despite having a reasonable margin to Kimi and not making any big errors going by the reasons I've seen anyway.

You'd have to have Bottas pinned as fairly quicker than Seb and much quicker than Kimi to come out to a Ferrari advantage and while the latter sounds feasible right now the former doesn't for the people thinking Mercedes have a small advantage on a Saturday.

Which could well be harsh on Bottas but it's a bit early to elevate him to that kind of standing based on not even getting within a tenth of Lewis yet never mind actually beating him a few times like even Kova and with respect Button did. And I don't think too many would pick them over Seb in a qually battle.

Button was beaten by Hamilton in qualifying by embarrassing margins at times when they were teammates. You won't see any driver completely shut out their teammate in the qualifying battle but Bottas is certainly a quick single lap driver. He bested Massa in qualifying in the same car over a 3 year period of time. Vettel lost out to Daniel over a single lap in the one season they spent as teammates so it's not impossible that he and Bottas have similar single lap performance.

The fact is that Vettel has out-qualified Bottas in both races so Valteri wouldn't have to be better than him as a qualifier to have the results he has had. Kimi has performed poorly in qualifying for years. You can go back to his WDC season in 2007 and see that he was out-performed in qualy by Massa that year (as well as every other year that they were teammates). Kimi is the only one of the four drivers at Merc and Ferrari who is a known poor qualifier and he has also struggled with setup in the first two rounds so I don't think he provides a valid comparison point to three drivers who have performed well and generally been within very close margins of each other in qualifying.

Last year Bottas beat Massa 11-8 in qualifying (including one race where Massa was at the back with PU issues) and he only actually got ahead of Massa in the last races of the season. So they were pretty close overall. It compares pretty favourably with 2007, where Massa beat Kimi 9-8. Bottas can be pretty quick but he didn't slaughter Massa by any means. I'd agree that Kimi is at best an erratic qualifier and unreliable as a barometer, but there's no real reason to believe that Bottas is better than Vettel, since Vettel has a pretty good qualifying record overall.

It's possible Bottas is better, of course, but the elephant in the room of Mercedes' historical qualifying mode suggests that the Merc enabled god-mode in Q3 and this gave the drivers a boost. The balance of probability is that the Mercedes is slightly better than the Ferrari in qualifying trim.


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PostPosted: Mon Apr 10, 2017 3:09 pm 
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sandman1347 wrote:
Lotus49 wrote:
sandman1347 wrote:
Zoue wrote:
Lotus49 wrote:
I think development is very hard to judge and to be fair last year Ferrari concentrated on getting it right for the new regs, which is reflected in the way they dropped off in the 2nd half. But at best they were only ever going to be bridesmaids, so it's understandable. It's not likely the same will happen this year, not when they have a chance of the main prize.

I think the votes reflect the fact that the Mercedes still looks slightly stronger, particularly in qualifying trim, which gives Lewis a fairly hefty advantage on Sundays

Not sure where you're seeing that. To me, the cars are pretty much even and I think that's the only logical conclusion at this point. Certainly there is no way to perceive Mercedes as better on Sundays right now and the notion that they are better on Saturdays is only supported by Hamilton setting pole position by a narrow margin (which he wouldn't necessarily need a car advantage to do).


I think it's more about Seb only very narrowly beating Bottas both times despite having a reasonable margin to Kimi and not making any big errors going by the reasons I've seen anyway.

You'd have to have Bottas pinned as fairly quicker than Seb and much quicker than Kimi to come out to a Ferrari advantage and while the latter sounds feasible right now the former doesn't for the people thinking Mercedes have a small advantage on a Saturday.

Which could well be harsh on Bottas but it's a bit early to elevate him to that kind of standing based on not even getting within a tenth of Lewis yet never mind actually beating him a few times like even Kova and with respect Button did. And I don't think too many would pick them over Seb in a qually battle.

Button was beaten by Hamilton in qualifying by embarrassing margins at times when they were teammates. You won't see any driver completely shut out their teammate in the qualifying battle but Bottas is certainly a quick single lap driver. He bested Massa in qualifying in the same car over a 3 year period of time. Vettel lost out to Daniel over a single lap in the one season they spent as teammates so it's not impossible that he and Bottas have similar single lap performance.

The fact is that Vettel has out-qualified Bottas in both races so Valteri wouldn't have to be better than him as a qualifier to have the results he has had. Kimi has performed poorly in qualifying for years. You can go back to his WDC season in 2007 and see that he was out-performed in qualy by Massa that year (as well as every other year that they were teammates). Kimi is the only one of the four drivers at Merc and Ferrari who is a known poor qualifier and he has also struggled with setup in the first two rounds so I don't think he provides a valid comparison point to three drivers who have performed well and generally been within very close margins of each other in qualifying.


So will Bottas be and so was Nico. So was Lewis against Nico for that matter. Of course no one shuts out their team mate, not sure why you would think that's what I meant. I just meant it's not surprising people aren't falling over themselves to declare Bottas as quick or quicker than Seb because he's got within 2ths of Lewis once. He literally hasn't even beaten him yet.

They were good laps from Seb and the gap was 0.025 and 0.001. That's as damn equal as you're going to get against a driver we know left time on the table. You're basically saying Bottas could leave 2 and 3ths on the table plus whatever the Mercedes trails Ferrari. That's how much time he has over Seb to come out equal?. Or how bad Seb's laps were?. It's just a bit of a stretch for me.

Or the Mercedes has a tenth or so over the Ferrari. I know which way I'm leaning at this point but it's very early and doesn't mean it can't change even next weekend.

It's really close either way but if we're leaning in Ferrari's favour then Seb has been awful in Q so far and Palmer could do a better job than Kimi.

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PostPosted: Mon Apr 10, 2017 3:30 pm 
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Lotus49 wrote:
sandman1347 wrote:
Lotus49 wrote:
sandman1347 wrote:
Zoue wrote:
Not sure where you're seeing that. To me, the cars are pretty much even and I think that's the only logical conclusion at this point. Certainly there is no way to perceive Mercedes as better on Sundays right now and the notion that they are better on Saturdays is only supported by Hamilton setting pole position by a narrow margin (which he wouldn't necessarily need a car advantage to do).


I think it's more about Seb only very narrowly beating Bottas both times despite having a reasonable margin to Kimi and not making any big errors going by the reasons I've seen anyway.

You'd have to have Bottas pinned as fairly quicker than Seb and much quicker than Kimi to come out to a Ferrari advantage and while the latter sounds feasible right now the former doesn't for the people thinking Mercedes have a small advantage on a Saturday.

Which could well be harsh on Bottas but it's a bit early to elevate him to that kind of standing based on not even getting within a tenth of Lewis yet never mind actually beating him a few times like even Kova and with respect Button did. And I don't think too many would pick them over Seb in a qually battle.

Button was beaten by Hamilton in qualifying by embarrassing margins at times when they were teammates. You won't see any driver completely shut out their teammate in the qualifying battle but Bottas is certainly a quick single lap driver. He bested Massa in qualifying in the same car over a 3 year period of time. Vettel lost out to Daniel over a single lap in the one season they spent as teammates so it's not impossible that he and Bottas have similar single lap performance.

The fact is that Vettel has out-qualified Bottas in both races so Valteri wouldn't have to be better than him as a qualifier to have the results he has had. Kimi has performed poorly in qualifying for years. You can go back to his WDC season in 2007 and see that he was out-performed in qualy by Massa that year (as well as every other year that they were teammates). Kimi is the only one of the four drivers at Merc and Ferrari who is a known poor qualifier and he has also struggled with setup in the first two rounds so I don't think he provides a valid comparison point to three drivers who have performed well and generally been within very close margins of each other in qualifying.


So will Bottas be and so was Nico. So was Lewis against Nico for that matter. Of course no one shuts out their team mate, not sure why you would think that's what I meant. I just meant it's not surprising people aren't falling over themselves to declare Bottas as quick or quicker than Seb because he's got within 2ths of Lewis once. He literally hasn't even beaten him yet.

They were good laps from Seb and the gap was 0.025 and 0.001. That's as damn equal as you're going to get against a driver we know left time on the table. You're basically saying Bottas could leave 2 and 3ths on the table plus whatever the Mercedes trails Ferrari. That's how much time he has over Seb to come out equal?. Or how bad Seb's laps were?. It's just a bit of a stretch for me.

Or the Mercedes has a tenth or so over the Ferrari. I know which way I'm leaning at this point but it's very early and doesn't mean it can't change even next weekend.

It's really close either way but if we're leaning in Ferrari's favour then Seb has been awful in Q so far and Palmer could do a better job than Kimi.

I said the cars look evenly matched. I didn't say Ferrari have an advantage.


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PostPosted: Mon Apr 10, 2017 3:40 pm 
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Zoue wrote:
sandman1347 wrote:
Lotus49 wrote:
sandman1347 wrote:
Zoue wrote:
I think development is very hard to judge and to be fair last year Ferrari concentrated on getting it right for the new regs, which is reflected in the way they dropped off in the 2nd half. But at best they were only ever going to be bridesmaids, so it's understandable. It's not likely the same will happen this year, not when they have a chance of the main prize.

I think the votes reflect the fact that the Mercedes still looks slightly stronger, particularly in qualifying trim, which gives Lewis a fairly hefty advantage on Sundays

Not sure where you're seeing that. To me, the cars are pretty much even and I think that's the only logical conclusion at this point. Certainly there is no way to perceive Mercedes as better on Sundays right now and the notion that they are better on Saturdays is only supported by Hamilton setting pole position by a narrow margin (which he wouldn't necessarily need a car advantage to do).


I think it's more about Seb only very narrowly beating Bottas both times despite having a reasonable margin to Kimi and not making any big errors going by the reasons I've seen anyway.

You'd have to have Bottas pinned as fairly quicker than Seb and much quicker than Kimi to come out to a Ferrari advantage and while the latter sounds feasible right now the former doesn't for the people thinking Mercedes have a small advantage on a Saturday.

Which could well be harsh on Bottas but it's a bit early to elevate him to that kind of standing based on not even getting within a tenth of Lewis yet never mind actually beating him a few times like even Kova and with respect Button did. And I don't think too many would pick them over Seb in a qually battle.

Button was beaten by Hamilton in qualifying by embarrassing margins at times when they were teammates. You won't see any driver completely shut out their teammate in the qualifying battle but Bottas is certainly a quick single lap driver. He bested Massa in qualifying in the same car over a 3 year period of time. Vettel lost out to Daniel over a single lap in the one season they spent as teammates so it's not impossible that he and Bottas have similar single lap performance.

The fact is that Vettel has out-qualified Bottas in both races so Valteri wouldn't have to be better than him as a qualifier to have the results he has had. Kimi has performed poorly in qualifying for years. You can go back to his WDC season in 2007 and see that he was out-performed in qualy by Massa that year (as well as every other year that they were teammates). Kimi is the only one of the four drivers at Merc and Ferrari who is a known poor qualifier and he has also struggled with setup in the first two rounds so I don't think he provides a valid comparison point to three drivers who have performed well and generally been within very close margins of each other in qualifying.

Last year Bottas beat Massa 11-8 in qualifying (including one race where Massa was at the back with PU issues) and he only actually got ahead of Massa in the last races of the season. So they were pretty close overall. It compares pretty favourably with 2007, where Massa beat Kimi 9-8. Bottas can be pretty quick but he didn't slaughter Massa by any means. I'd agree that Kimi is at best an erratic qualifier and unreliable as a barometer, but there's no real reason to believe that Bottas is better than Vettel, since Vettel has a pretty good qualifying record overall.

It's possible Bottas is better, of course, but the elephant in the room of Mercedes' historical qualifying mode suggests that the Merc enabled god-mode in Q3 and this gave the drivers a boost. The balance of probability is that the Mercedes is slightly better than the Ferrari in qualifying trim.

This would also suggest that the Ferrari is significantly better in the race as Mercedes lagged behind them up until Q3 in China and also seemed slower in the race in Melbourne (hard to call in Shanghai). If they have a special mode that enables them to go faster in Q3 and are still split in Q3 by Vettel's car, that indicates that the Ferrari in fact has the edge right now.


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PostPosted: Mon Apr 10, 2017 3:56 pm 
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sandman1347 wrote:
Lotus49 wrote:
sandman1347 wrote:
Lotus49 wrote:
sandman1347 wrote:

I think it's more about Seb only very narrowly beating Bottas both times despite having a reasonable margin to Kimi and not making any big errors going by the reasons I've seen anyway.

You'd have to have Bottas pinned as fairly quicker than Seb and much quicker than Kimi to come out to a Ferrari advantage and while the latter sounds feasible right now the former doesn't for the people thinking Mercedes have a small advantage on a Saturday.

Which could well be harsh on Bottas but it's a bit early to elevate him to that kind of standing based on not even getting within a tenth of Lewis yet never mind actually beating him a few times like even Kova and with respect Button did. And I don't think too many would pick them over Seb in a qually battle.

Button was beaten by Hamilton in qualifying by embarrassing margins at times when they were teammates. You won't see any driver completely shut out their teammate in the qualifying battle but Bottas is certainly a quick single lap driver. He bested Massa in qualifying in the same car over a 3 year period of time. Vettel lost out to Daniel over a single lap in the one season they spent as teammates so it's not impossible that he and Bottas have similar single lap performance.

The fact is that Vettel has out-qualified Bottas in both races so Valteri wouldn't have to be better than him as a qualifier to have the results he has had. Kimi has performed poorly in qualifying for years. You can go back to his WDC season in 2007 and see that he was out-performed in qualy by Massa that year (as well as every other year that they were teammates). Kimi is the only one of the four drivers at Merc and Ferrari who is a known poor qualifier and he has also struggled with setup in the first two rounds so I don't think he provides a valid comparison point to three drivers who have performed well and generally been within very close margins of each other in qualifying.


So will Bottas be and so was Nico. So was Lewis against Nico for that matter. Of course no one shuts out their team mate, not sure why you would think that's what I meant. I just meant it's not surprising people aren't falling over themselves to declare Bottas as quick or quicker than Seb because he's got within 2ths of Lewis once. He literally hasn't even beaten him yet.

They were good laps from Seb and the gap was 0.025 and 0.001. That's as damn equal as you're going to get against a driver we know left time on the table. You're basically saying Bottas could leave 2 and 3ths on the table plus whatever the Mercedes trails Ferrari. That's how much time he has over Seb to come out equal?. Or how bad Seb's laps were?. It's just a bit of a stretch for me.

Or the Mercedes has a tenth or so over the Ferrari. I know which way I'm leaning at this point but it's very early and doesn't mean it can't change even next weekend.

It's really close either way but if we're leaning in Ferrari's favour then Seb has been awful in Q so far and Palmer could do a better job than Kimi.

I said the cars look evenly matched. I didn't say Ferrari have an advantage.


Fair enough, but just pointing out why some others think there's a small advantage there.

Bad set up/Track Temp/Track Characteristics etc.. will probably mix it up anyway and that's not taking into account any development.

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-Eddie Dennis, describing the dominance of Jim Clark in the Lotus 49 at Spa 1967


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PostPosted: Mon Apr 10, 2017 4:04 pm 
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sandman1347 wrote:
Zoue wrote:
sandman1347 wrote:
Lotus49 wrote:
sandman1347 wrote:
Not sure where you're seeing that. To me, the cars are pretty much even and I think that's the only logical conclusion at this point. Certainly there is no way to perceive Mercedes as better on Sundays right now and the notion that they are better on Saturdays is only supported by Hamilton setting pole position by a narrow margin (which he wouldn't necessarily need a car advantage to do).


I think it's more about Seb only very narrowly beating Bottas both times despite having a reasonable margin to Kimi and not making any big errors going by the reasons I've seen anyway.

You'd have to have Bottas pinned as fairly quicker than Seb and much quicker than Kimi to come out to a Ferrari advantage and while the latter sounds feasible right now the former doesn't for the people thinking Mercedes have a small advantage on a Saturday.

Which could well be harsh on Bottas but it's a bit early to elevate him to that kind of standing based on not even getting within a tenth of Lewis yet never mind actually beating him a few times like even Kova and with respect Button did. And I don't think too many would pick them over Seb in a qually battle.

Button was beaten by Hamilton in qualifying by embarrassing margins at times when they were teammates. You won't see any driver completely shut out their teammate in the qualifying battle but Bottas is certainly a quick single lap driver. He bested Massa in qualifying in the same car over a 3 year period of time. Vettel lost out to Daniel over a single lap in the one season they spent as teammates so it's not impossible that he and Bottas have similar single lap performance.

The fact is that Vettel has out-qualified Bottas in both races so Valteri wouldn't have to be better than him as a qualifier to have the results he has had. Kimi has performed poorly in qualifying for years. You can go back to his WDC season in 2007 and see that he was out-performed in qualy by Massa that year (as well as every other year that they were teammates). Kimi is the only one of the four drivers at Merc and Ferrari who is a known poor qualifier and he has also struggled with setup in the first two rounds so I don't think he provides a valid comparison point to three drivers who have performed well and generally been within very close margins of each other in qualifying.

Last year Bottas beat Massa 11-8 in qualifying (including one race where Massa was at the back with PU issues) and he only actually got ahead of Massa in the last races of the season. So they were pretty close overall. It compares pretty favourably with 2007, where Massa beat Kimi 9-8. Bottas can be pretty quick but he didn't slaughter Massa by any means. I'd agree that Kimi is at best an erratic qualifier and unreliable as a barometer, but there's no real reason to believe that Bottas is better than Vettel, since Vettel has a pretty good qualifying record overall.

It's possible Bottas is better, of course, but the elephant in the room of Mercedes' historical qualifying mode suggests that the Merc enabled god-mode in Q3 and this gave the drivers a boost. The balance of probability is that the Mercedes is slightly better than the Ferrari in qualifying trim.

This would also suggest that the Ferrari is significantly better in the race as Mercedes lagged behind them up until Q3 in China and also seemed slower in the race in Melbourne (hard to call in Shanghai). If they have a special mode that enables them to go faster in Q3 and are still split in Q3 by Vettel's car, that indicates that the Ferrari in fact has the edge right now.

Mercedes didn't lag behind Ferrari in Q2. I seem to recall there was nothing at all between Hamilton and Vettel - 0.015s - with Kimi as usual trailing. But then both Ferraris went out for a second run, which is when Kimi managed to leapfrog Lewis. But it took him two runs to Lewis' one.

I think they are closer in the race, but we are talking small differences anyway. I suspect Ferrari may well be quicker in race trim in Bahrain as hotter temperatures traditionally favour them.


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PostPosted: Mon Apr 10, 2017 4:06 pm 
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RaggedMan wrote:
Covalent wrote:
Whilst I have no idea what a brass tack is, or even less how to get down to one, I predict the WDC to go to Vettel. Although that requires Ferrari to be on par with Mercedes in the development race, if they fall behind it will be a relatively easy WDC for Lewis.

Edit: In other words, what Exediron said :lol:

Off topic but...
Often idioms don't translate well, but the way they come into being fascinates me. Often they make perfect sense in their native language and the meaning is often easily understood but I had never considered this one and nothing springs to mind as an origin and apparently nobody is sure exactly what the meaning really refers to but the first known usage originates from a Texas newspaper in the 1860's.

http://www.phrases.org.uk/meanings/get-down-to-brass-tacks.html

Interesting, thanks :lol:

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PostPosted: Mon Apr 10, 2017 4:16 pm 
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Zoue wrote:
Mercedes didn't lag behind Ferrari in Q2. I seem to recall there was nothing at all between Hamilton and Vettel - 0.015s - with Kimi as usual trailing. But then both Ferraris went out for a second run, which is when Kimi managed to leapfrog Lewis. But it took him two runs to Lewis' one.

I think they are closer in the race, but we are talking small differences anyway. I suspect Ferrari may well be quicker in race trim in Bahrain as hotter temperatures traditionally favour them.

That's the point. The cars are pretty even and to suggest that one of them has an advantage is simply not supported by evidence right now.

Of course the cars are not actually equal. They are two different machines created by two different companies without any collusion other than to adhere to the same regulations. There must be differences and most likely there are some areas where one is stronger and some areas where the other is. I just think the notion that Mercedes have an advantage is unsubstantiated at this point. It is, again, more based on the last three years than this year.


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PostPosted: Mon Apr 10, 2017 7:17 pm 
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I think Lewis gets his 4th WDC this year. However, I felt like Oz seemed like Ferrari was the better car on the tires, and China it seems the other way around. A few more races and we'll see if there is a real trend there. I think both teams will develop well, but I do think Mercedes have the upper hand and will come out on top. I'm guessing Lewis sews the title up with a race or two in hand at the end. Seb will be second. The WCC will come down to the Finns. I'm thinking the win totals will be something like Hamilton with 9 or 10, Seb with 4-9, Bottas and Kimi with a low number each.


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PostPosted: Mon Apr 10, 2017 9:21 pm 
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sandman1347 wrote:
Randine wrote:
Lotus49 wrote:
sandman1347 wrote:
I must admit, I'm surprised at how lopsided the voting is at the moment. I would have thought it would be about 50/50. I guess it boils down to people not having much faith in Ferrari's in-season development.


Yeah I think that's what swayed me anyway. All things being equal I'd go for Lewis anyway but if Seb was in the Red Bull instead of Ferrari and we had the same situation I think i'd have swung towards them.

Harsh on Ferrari but 2013 and 2016 are still pretty fresh in the memory.


And also Red Bull are mighty in development. They are running some part of last years energy store.
The new one is reported lighter. Renault have a big update pencilled in for Canada. Then Red Bull are masters of aero updates and they haven't fully locked down the balance of the RB13 yet.

So based on this, and also Ferrari's past poor history of in season development, I think Ham might win the WDC by a big margin. Potentially Max or Ric might even be his nearest challenger if Red Bull move in front of both Merc and Ferrari by the end of the year...

They were a second off the pace in China. i think it's a tall order for them to catch Mercedes or Ferrari this season. In fact, my gut tells me that Renault and not RBR will eventually become the third contender in this era. I think RBR will struggle to keep up with works teams. Maybe I'm insane but I really think that.

Kvyat took 3rd last season for Red Bull, finishing 45 seconds behind Nico Rosberg. Ricciardo was 4th, 52 seconds back.

This season Verstappen was 45 seconds behind Hamilton. Saying Red Bull will struggle at this point of the season is stupid.


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PostPosted: Mon Apr 10, 2017 9:25 pm 
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GingerFurball wrote:
sandman1347 wrote:
Randine wrote:
Lotus49 wrote:
sandman1347 wrote:
I must admit, I'm surprised at how lopsided the voting is at the moment. I would have thought it would be about 50/50. I guess it boils down to people not having much faith in Ferrari's in-season development.


Yeah I think that's what swayed me anyway. All things being equal I'd go for Lewis anyway but if Seb was in the Red Bull instead of Ferrari and we had the same situation I think i'd have swung towards them.

Harsh on Ferrari but 2013 and 2016 are still pretty fresh in the memory.


And also Red Bull are mighty in development. They are running some part of last years energy store.
The new one is reported lighter. Renault have a big update pencilled in for Canada. Then Red Bull are masters of aero updates and they haven't fully locked down the balance of the RB13 yet.

So based on this, and also Ferrari's past poor history of in season development, I think Ham might win the WDC by a big margin. Potentially Max or Ric might even be his nearest challenger if Red Bull move in front of both Merc and Ferrari by the end of the year...

They were a second off the pace in China. i think it's a tall order for them to catch Mercedes or Ferrari this season. In fact, my gut tells me that Renault and not RBR will eventually become the third contender in this era. I think RBR will struggle to keep up with works teams. Maybe I'm insane but I really think that.

Kvyat took 3rd last season for Red Bull, finishing 45 seconds behind Nico Rosberg. Ricciardo was 4th, 52 seconds back.

This season Verstappen was 45 seconds behind Hamilton. Saying Red Bull will struggle at this point of the season is stupid.

Stupid?...hmm...Perhaps instead of developing their car so relentlessly last season, they should have worked on this year's car like Ferrari and Mercedes did...Maybe that's stupid too huh?


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