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Who Will Win the Championship
Hamilton 60%  60%  [ 58 ]
Vettel 38%  38%  [ 36 ]
Someone Else (Please say who) 2%  2%  [ 2 ]
Total votes : 96
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 Post subject: Re: Hamilton vs. Vettel
PostPosted: Sun Apr 16, 2017 12:11 pm 
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F1Tyrant wrote:
Pole2Win wrote:
...don't bring the reliability card, as I'm sure you know and understand Hamilton greatly benefitted from Rosberg's woes the year before...

I'm going to go there. If Rosberg had perfect reliability in 2015, he would have still lost the title in Abu Dhabi by 16 points. Hamilton has had the worst of reliability woes over 2014-2016 for whatever reason: 4 (2Q, 2R) in 2014, 1 in 2015, 3 (2Q, 1R) in 2016 compared to Nico's 3 in 2014, 2 in 2015 and 0 in 2016 all in the races.


Its amazing what people do once a bit of time has changed...

I have read "Rosberg only lost the WDC in 2014 because he had worse reliability" last year and also "Rosberg only thought for the WDC because Hamilton's reliability". Both are in part true, but show how you can twist things. The reality is Rosberg was poor and heavily beaten in 2014 on track. Hamilton had 2 mechanical DNFs in the first 8 races, Rosberg 0. Rosberg had 2 in the second half of the year, Hamilton 0. Then Rosberg had number 3 when Hamilton was already in position to win in the last race.

People also seem to forget Rosberg was behind Vettel in the WDC with 3 races to go in 2015 and ended both 2014 and 2015 as close to the 3rd place in the WDC as he did Hamilton

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 Post subject: Re: Hamilton vs. Vettel
PostPosted: Sun Apr 16, 2017 1:12 pm 
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Zoue wrote:
I think this is probably a view that only people who don't fully understand F1 would have and I very much doubt it's something that keeps him awake at night




Zoue wrote:
Sorry, should have highlighted the bit I meant, which was regardless of what happens in the rest of his career, that one season will always cast doubts over his true level, unless he matches Alonso or Hamilton in the same car. People have very short memories indeed in F1 and if he starts winning titles again it won't be an issue.

But having said that, I'd challenge Brundle too if he thinks Vettel leaving Red Bull was because he wouldn't want to be exposed in a second year. It's funny how almost everybody, Brundle included, have been saying that a Works team is the only way forward with the new PUs, yet Vettel joining Ferrari is because he's scared? If Brundle claims that I think he's smoking something


That was an exaggeration obviously on my part. But obviously it depends on whether you rate him or not. Realistically, I don't think it is very likely Vettel will even win another title in his career though let alone beat Hamilton, Alonso or Ricciardo. I'm not an expert but that's only my opinion. I believe there will always be question marks over his true level, whether those opinions come from people who know much about F1 or not, it doesn't matter. That was somewhat the point I was trying to make, that not everyone is gonna take into account all the factors needed to make a conclusion on that season thus it will be inevitable there will be doubters and discussions like we are having now.


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 Post subject: Re: Hamilton vs. Vettel
PostPosted: Sun Apr 16, 2017 1:19 pm 
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Rockie wrote:
Ocon wrote:
pokerman wrote:
Well I tend to deal with what actually has happened rather than what might happen.

One question I have always been asking myself is wether Vettel would have stayed at RB after the season he was beat had they still been the top team. I think Vettel realised he was being exposed while at the same time RB wasn't the top team anymore and quickly looked to switch teams before it was too late for people to claim it was a freak season. I mean seriously, imagine if he was beat as bad in his second season vs Ric, it would have been a disaster for him as his 4 titles would've basically been nulified in most peoples eyes. What a lot of people suspected would have pretty much been confirmed.

That one season maybe isn't enough to definitely draw a conclusion from but it is an indication. And still, regardless of what happens for the rest of his career, that one season will always cast doubts over his true level despite all the excuses made for him, unless he matches one of Hamilton or Alonso in the same car. Although it's highly unlikely they will end up in the same car.




In your mind, this sounds more like wishful thinking than reality!

So even if he goes on to win 10 titles '14 will still be the season you look at?

Congratulations you have played yourself, I'm sure Ricciardo and all other F1 drivers including Alonso will rather have 4 titles and the season Vettel had in '14 than their current situation!


Well let's see in a few years if it's wishful thinking and if people are still having this discussion. I'm not even gonna bother talking about his titles, it's been discussed ad nauseum. Obviously to some people those titles don't say much.


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 Post subject: Re: Hamilton vs. Vettel
PostPosted: Sun Apr 16, 2017 1:21 pm 
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Ocon wrote:
Zoue wrote:
I think this is probably a view that only people who don't fully understand F1 would have and I very much doubt it's something that keeps him awake at night




Zoue wrote:
Sorry, should have highlighted the bit I meant, which was regardless of what happens in the rest of his career, that one season will always cast doubts over his true level, unless he matches Alonso or Hamilton in the same car. People have very short memories indeed in F1 and if he starts winning titles again it won't be an issue.

But having said that, I'd challenge Brundle too if he thinks Vettel leaving Red Bull was because he wouldn't want to be exposed in a second year. It's funny how almost everybody, Brundle included, have been saying that a Works team is the only way forward with the new PUs, yet Vettel joining Ferrari is because he's scared? If Brundle claims that I think he's smoking something


That was an exaggeration obviously on my part. But obviously it depends on whether you rate him or not. Realistically, I don't think it is very likely Vettel will even win another title in his career though let alone beat Hamilton, Alonso or Ricciardo. I'm not an expert but that's only my opinion. I believe there will always be question marks over his true level, whether those opinions come from people who know much about F1 or not, it doesn't matter. That was somewhat the point I was trying to make, that not everyone is gonna take into account all the factors needed to make a conclusion on that season thus it will be inevitable there will be doubters and discussions like we are having now.

True level is pretty hard to define at the best of times, though. Things change so much in F1. It's clear - at least, it is to me - that drivers like Hamilton, Alonso and Vettel are among the elite of their generation. To them I'd add Ricciardo and Verstappen (not saying the latter's the finished article yet, but I think it's plain he's very talented already). People will always argue where each sits relative to the other, but it's be hard to deny that each of them is a driver any team would be more than happy to have. Any question marks, such as there are, are really just about fine degree, not raw talent, as it should be obvious all of the above have that in spades


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 Post subject: Re: Hamilton vs. Vettel
PostPosted: Sun Apr 16, 2017 1:35 pm 
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mas wrote:
Ocon wrote:
pokerman wrote:
Well I tend to deal with what actually has happened rather than what might happen.

One question I have always been asking myself is wether Vettel would have stayed at RB after the season he was beat had they still been the top team. I think Vettel realised he was being exposed while at the same time RB wasn't the top team anymore and quickly looked to switch teams before it was too late for people to claim it was a freak season. I mean seriously, imagine if he was beat as bad in his second season vs Ric, it would have been a disaster for him as his 4 titles would've basically been nulified in most peoples eyes. What a lot of people suspected would have pretty much been confirmed.

That one season maybe isn't enough to definitely draw a conclusion from but it is an indication. And still, regardless of what happens for the rest of his career, that one season will always cast doubts over his true level despite all the excuses made for him, unless he matches one of Hamilton or Alonso in the same car. Although it's highly unlikely they will end up in the same car.


I think he would have stayed if Red Bull had been competitive as he took his 2014 lumps well and does not appear to have a massive ego to massage. Again i believe 2014 was accentuated by his low coinciding with Ricciardo's high although there is no doubt that Ricciardo is a massive talent perhaps a younger version of Alonso but without the tremendous adaptability that Alonso has.

As to Vettel's ultimate rating against his peers i think we will have a much better picture next year when he is either paired with Hamilton at Mercedes or Alonso at Ferrari as both options are likely.


I would love to see him paired with one of them, even Ric or Verstappen. But I don't think it will ever happen(Ham or Alo). It is possible but I can't see why Ferrari would want Alonso when they have a nr1 driver in Vettel. Same with Merc as Ham is nr1 and Bottas is a very good driver as well.


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 Post subject: Re: Hamilton vs. Vettel
PostPosted: Sun Apr 16, 2017 1:46 pm 
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Zoue wrote:
Ocon wrote:
Zoue wrote:
I think this is probably a view that only people who don't fully understand F1 would have and I very much doubt it's something that keeps him awake at night




Zoue wrote:
Sorry, should have highlighted the bit I meant, which was regardless of what happens in the rest of his career, that one season will always cast doubts over his true level, unless he matches Alonso or Hamilton in the same car. People have very short memories indeed in F1 and if he starts winning titles again it won't be an issue.

But having said that, I'd challenge Brundle too if he thinks Vettel leaving Red Bull was because he wouldn't want to be exposed in a second year. It's funny how almost everybody, Brundle included, have been saying that a Works team is the only way forward with the new PUs, yet Vettel joining Ferrari is because he's scared? If Brundle claims that I think he's smoking something


That was an exaggeration obviously on my part. But obviously it depends on whether you rate him or not. Realistically, I don't think it is very likely Vettel will even win another title in his career though let alone beat Hamilton, Alonso or Ricciardo. I'm not an expert but that's only my opinion. I believe there will always be question marks over his true level, whether those opinions come from people who know much about F1 or not, it doesn't matter. That was somewhat the point I was trying to make, that not everyone is gonna take into account all the factors needed to make a conclusion on that season thus it will be inevitable there will be doubters and discussions like we are having now.

True level is pretty hard to define at the best of times, though. Things change so much in F1. It's clear - at least, it is to me - that drivers like Hamilton, Alonso and Vettel are among the elite of their generation. To them I'd add Ricciardo and Verstappen (not saying the latter's the finished article yet, but I think it's plain he's very talented already). People will always argue where each sits relative to the other, but it's be hard to deny that each of them is a driver any team would be more than happy to have. Any question marks, such as there are, are really just about fine degree, not raw talent, as it should be obvious all of the above have that in spades

They are obviously the top drivers, but there will always be differing opinions as to who is better amongst them. Like you say, there are so many factors you have to consider so it becomes almost impossible to compare at times. I just happen to believe Vettel is below Ham and Alo. You obviously rate him higher and I respect your opinion but disagree.


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 Post subject: Re: Hamilton vs. Vettel
PostPosted: Sun Apr 16, 2017 2:36 pm 
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GingerFurball wrote:
kleefton wrote:
pokerman wrote:

So you know the exact speeds of the cars before this mode is used, plus you know the exact difference it makes, also I thought that Ferrari had a qualifying mode as well?


I think Renault, Ferrari and Merc all have a qualifying engine mode but Merc's is just more effective. I mean it's just a more aggressive engine setting. I would guess that if the engine is fundamentally better, running a more aggressive setting will only yield more gains. It looks like Merc's mode is giving them about 0.5sec a lap. Ferrari is likely less than that.

In other news the Renault team is surprisingly close to Redbull in qualifying too, which had me wondering; are they starting to restrict the better engine modes from their customers a la Mercedes?


Nah, what it say to me is that the Renault engine is better than it's given credit for. On a power track the top 10 by engine is Renault 4, Mercedes 3 and Ferrari 3.

Wasn't traction out of low speed corners a particular strength of Red Bull's during their glory years?


Sorry but it doesn't explain why they are closer to Redbull on this particular track. Last I checked Redbull also used a Renault engine. Even Grosjean was surprised with Renault this weekend.
Again, in other news, Alonso seemingly has made contact with Renault about a 2018 drive.


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 Post subject: Re: Hamilton vs. Vettel
PostPosted: Sun Apr 16, 2017 7:49 pm 
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So to get back to the topic of Hamilton vs. Vettel, here are some takeaways so far from the three races:

Australia: Edge goes to Mercedes in qualifying but right from the opening lap it appeared that Vettel was being held up by Hamilton. Strategically, Mercedes blinked first and Lewis ended up stuck in traffic; allowing Vettel to take the lead and eventually win the race.

China: Edge goes to Mercedes in qualifying by and extremely narrow margin but before we get a real sense for who is quicker in the race, Ferrari pit during the virtual safety car period and really catch Mercedes napping. They would have secured the lead for Vettel if not for the safety car period that followed immediately afterwards. Here's where things get interesting. Bottas spins during the safety car period leaving Vettel right behind Kimi in 5th place. Instead of moving Kimi out of the way, Ferrari let Vettel toil behind Kimi for 9 laps before he makes the move himself. It seems that, in that very same race, Ferrari decided to keep Kimi out on track to possibly hold up Hamilton after his stop. Leaving Kimi out compromised his race a bit but it also exposed some indecision there for Ferrari. If they were willing to use Kimi as a rear gunner, they should have moved him out of the way for Seb instead of basically throwing away any prayer they had of getting the win.

Bahrain: Significant edge for Mercedes in qualifying but Bottas on pole turns out to be a blessing for Ferrari as he holds up the field during the race and, once again, Ferrari pounces on the strategic opportunity by pitting Vettel and then allowing the slower Bottas to hold up Hamilton. The safety car timing also hurts Mercedes as Hamilton gets stacked up, incurs a penalty and comes out in 4th. He makes up the position on the re-start but then comes the most important phase of the race. Within a few laps of the 2nd stint starting, Hamilton is being held up by the slower Bottas while Vettel pulls a gap. This is where Mercedes lost their last hope of winning the race. When they finally forced Bottas to move aside, Vettel had already built a gap and, more importantly, enough time had passed in the stint to make it so that, when Hamilton did his final stop, he came out behind Bottas again and was held up for another couple of laps. The TV commentators tried to make the final stint out to be a charge to the front for Hamilton but he was never going to catch up.

So final takeaways are that this season will be decided by which team, car and driver put it all together best. Strategy will be crucial and the pit wall will have to be razor sharp and able to improvise in order to capitalize on opportunities. Ferrari have the upper hand in that department thus far and Mercedes have been exposed a bit on this front. They are still in this mindset of focusing on making it a fair fight between their own drivers when they should be focused on beating the Ferraris.

Raikkonen has been slow and weak overall and doesn't look to be much of a factor. I wouldn't count out a race win if he puts together a strong weekend but he's totally inconsistent and unspectacular and being embarrassed by an on-form Vettel. He hurt Ferrari in China but he helped them in Bahrain as he never got in Vettel's way the way Bottas did to Hamilton.

I think both teams will need to throw all of their eggs in one basket and support their lead driver. If one of these teams allows the weaker driver to take points off of the stronger one, the other team will take the WDC.


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 Post subject: Re: Hamilton vs. Vettel
PostPosted: Sun Apr 16, 2017 8:02 pm 
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I wounder what sort of gap Vettel or Hamilton would of created if they was the leading car and Bottas was in 2nd.

If Hamilton and Bottas can take the front row often enough does anyone believe Mercedes will ask Bottas to hold the Ferrari up where he can? In the past Mercedes would ask the 1st driver which was normally Hamilton to speed up so the 3rd place car couldn't undercut the 2nd Mercedes. Not that it happened tht often. Will they keep doing that for the team or try to help Hamilton out as much as possible.

From what I saw on Sky F1, they was all off the opinion Mercedes should be backing Hamilton from now on, Hill was the only one who said it's too soon.

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 Post subject: Re: Hamilton vs. Vettel
PostPosted: Sun Apr 16, 2017 8:09 pm 
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F1_Ernie wrote:
I wounder what sort of gap Vettel or Hamilton would of created if they was the leading car and Bottas was in 2nd.

If Hamilton and Bottas can take the front row often enough does anyone believe Mercedes will ask Bottas to hold the Ferrari up where he can? In the past Mercedes would ask the 1st driver which was normally Hamilton to speed up so the 3rd place car couldn't undercut the 2nd Mercedes. Not that it happened tht often. Will they keep doing that for the team or try to help Hamilton out as much as possible.

From what I saw on Sky F1, they was all off the opinion Mercedes should be backing Hamilton from now on, Hill was the only one who said it's too soon.

I doubt they will deliberately force Bottas to hold up the field but they must prevent him from holding up Hamilton (especially when Vettel is in the lead).


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 Post subject: Re: Hamilton vs. Vettel
PostPosted: Sun Apr 16, 2017 8:33 pm 
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sandman1347 wrote:
So to get back to the topic of Hamilton vs. Vettel, here are some takeaways so far from the three races:

Australia: Edge goes to Mercedes in qualifying but right from the opening lap it appeared that Vettel was being held up by Hamilton. Strategically, Mercedes blinked first and Lewis ended up stuck in traffic; allowing Vettel to take the lead and eventually win the race.

China: Edge goes to Mercedes in qualifying by and extremely narrow margin but before we get a real sense for who is quicker in the race, Ferrari pit during the virtual safety car period and really catch Mercedes napping. They would have secured the lead for Vettel if not for the safety car period that followed immediately afterwards. Here's where things get interesting. Bottas spins during the safety car period leaving Vettel right behind Kimi in 5th place. Instead of moving Kimi out of the way, Ferrari let Vettel toil behind Kimi for 9 laps before he makes the move himself. It seems that, in that very same race, Ferrari decided to keep Kimi out on track to possibly hold up Hamilton after his stop. Leaving Kimi out compromised his race a bit but it also exposed some indecision there for Ferrari. If they were willing to use Kimi as a rear gunner, they should have moved him out of the way for Seb instead of basically throwing away any prayer they had of getting the win.

Bahrain: Significant edge for Mercedes in qualifying but Bottas on pole turns out to be a blessing for Ferrari as he holds up the field during the race and, once again, Ferrari pounces on the strategic opportunity by pitting Vettel and then allowing the slower Bottas to hold up Hamilton. The safety car timing also hurts Mercedes as Hamilton gets stacked up, incurs a penalty and comes out in 4th. He makes up the position on the re-start but then comes the most important phase of the race. Within a few laps of the 2nd stint starting, Hamilton is being held up by the slower Bottas while Vettel pulls a gap. This is where Mercedes lost their last hope of winning the race. When they finally forced Bottas to move aside, Vettel had already built a gap and, more importantly, enough time had passed in the stint to make it so that, when Hamilton did his final stop, he came out behind Bottas again and was held up for another couple of laps. The TV commentators tried to make the final stint out to be a charge to the front for Hamilton but he was never going to catch up.

So final takeaways are that this season will be decided by which team, car and driver put it all together best. Strategy will be crucial and the pit wall will have to be razor sharp and able to improvise in order to capitalize on opportunities. Ferrari have the upper hand in that department thus far and Mercedes have been exposed a bit on this front. They are still in this mindset of focusing on making it a fair fight between their own drivers when they should be focused on beating the Ferraris.

Raikkonen has been slow and weak overall and doesn't look to be much of a factor. I wouldn't count out a race win if he puts together a strong weekend but he's totally inconsistent and unspectacular and being embarrassed by an on-form Vettel. He hurt Ferrari in China but he helped them in Bahrain as he never got in Vettel's way the way Bottas did to Hamilton.

I think both teams will need to throw all of their eggs in one basket and support their lead driver. If one of these teams allows the weaker driver to take points off of the stronger one, the other team will take the WDC.

:thumbup: a very good summary & conclusions


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 Post subject: Re: Hamilton vs. Vettel
PostPosted: Sun Apr 16, 2017 8:40 pm 
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Good read Sandman :thumbup:

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 Post subject: Re: Hamilton vs. Vettel
PostPosted: Sun Apr 16, 2017 8:45 pm 
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Judging by what I have seen in the first 3 races and generally with Bottas in 2014-2016, he could massively aid Hamilton to win Hamilton the title this year. He is like Nico in 2014, within 0.1-0.2 of Hamilton in qualifying and able to out qualify him at times, but on race day at times over 0.5-0.6 a lap slower in the race. If Mercedes run 1-2 with Hamilton in the lead, Vettel isn't going to have a chance. Hamilton will have the races won in the first stint.

The problem for Mercedes is Bottas out qualifying Hamilton, they lost an easy win today. Kimi is too slow to get involved in the title fight, but Bottas can really hurt Vettel if it carries on like this.

Like I have always said, Hamilton is good but not unbeatable over 1 lap unless up against Jenson. His biggest strength is the race pace. Bottas race pace in stint 1 in Australia and in Bahrain today has been poor. China we don't know because of the spin but even then he was a bit down on Hamilton in that final stint.

I have always been saying, Bottas will likely be number 2 very shortly and we have seen the first signs of that today and now the questions have already started to Toto when this will occur. He is 23 points behind Lewis today and showed in the second stint he can't do anything against Vettel in race trim in a straight fight. If Hamilton wins the next race and Bottas is P2/P3 that will be 30+ points and number 2 time I feel.

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 Post subject: Re: Hamilton vs. Vettel
PostPosted: Sun Apr 16, 2017 9:02 pm 
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Mercedes has the edge in qualifying. Ferrari in the race.

In a season with less overtaking and more 1 stop races you'd have to say that bodes well for Mercedes but we've noticed a couple of times now what Vettel was talking about in the podium room, that Ferrari can follow another car very, very closely without losing too much in dirty air.

It's well poised for a good season, hopefully neither gets a significant upper hand in the development race but I'd like to see Ferrari be in a position to genuinely challenge on a Saturday. With the qualifying edge and recent record of in season development I'm still leaning towards Hamilton/Mercedes to take the titles, Vettel/Ferrari will make them work for it though.


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 Post subject: Re: Hamilton vs. Vettel
PostPosted: Sun Apr 16, 2017 9:27 pm 
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sandman1347 wrote:
The safety car timing also hurts Mercedes as Hamilton gets stacked up, incurs a penalty and comes out in 4th.


Actually the SC timing hurt Vettel more as he lost a lead of about 8s he would have had if Bottas would have pitted on the same lap without SC (and much more had the Mercs stayed out longer as Vettel was much faster). Whereas now Vettel essentially had both Mercs immediately in his mirrors after the restart.

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 Post subject: Re: Hamilton vs. Vettel
PostPosted: Sun Apr 16, 2017 9:30 pm 
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mds wrote:
sandman1347 wrote:
The safety car timing also hurts Mercedes as Hamilton gets stacked up, incurs a penalty and comes out in 4th.


Actually the SC timing hurt Vettel more as he lost a lead of about 8s he would have had if Bottas would have pitted on the same lap without SC (and much more had the Mercs stayed out longer as Vettel was much faster). Whereas now Vettel essentially had both Mercs immediately in his mirrors after the restart.


An 8 second lead? You think Vettel was over 4 seconds per lap quicker than Bottas?

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 Post subject: Re: Hamilton vs. Vettel
PostPosted: Sun Apr 16, 2017 9:34 pm 
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lamo wrote:
mds wrote:
sandman1347 wrote:
The safety car timing also hurts Mercedes as Hamilton gets stacked up, incurs a penalty and comes out in 4th.


Actually the SC timing hurt Vettel more as he lost a lead of about 8s he would have had if Bottas would have pitted on the same lap without SC (and much more had the Mercs stayed out longer as Vettel was much faster). Whereas now Vettel essentially had both Mercs immediately in his mirrors after the restart.


An 8 second lead? You think Vettel was over 4 seconds per lap quicker than Bottas?


About 3s/lap IIRC. I'll check live timing.

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 Post subject: Re: Hamilton vs. Vettel
PostPosted: Sun Apr 16, 2017 9:34 pm 
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Vettel is on 2 wins out of 3, and it would be 3 for 3 if not for a badly timed safety car.

However, he's having to pull out all the stops with aggressive strategies and pushing to the limit to get those victories (leaving himself vulnerable to things like that safety car) - I'm not convinced he can stay that relentless all year.

Mercedes still appear to have the pace advantage and I think in the long run that will win out. Ferrari have also had some reliability niggles in practice sessions and have already changed some PU parts which may bite them later in the year.


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 Post subject: Re: Hamilton vs. Vettel
PostPosted: Sun Apr 16, 2017 9:43 pm 
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optimisteprime wrote:
Vettel is on 2 wins out of 3, and it would be 3 for 3 if not for a badly timed safety car.

However, he's having to pull out all the stops with aggressive strategies and pushing to the limit to get those victories (leaving himself vulnerable to things like that safety car) - I'm not convinced he can stay that relentless all year.

Mercedes still appear to have the pace advantage and I think in the long run that will win out. Ferrari have also had some reliability niggles in practice sessions and have already changed some PU parts which may bite them later in the year.


Indeed, Ferrari did today exactly what Mercedes did in Australia. The difference was most of the cars Vettel came out behind pitted before he caught them and he when did catch a car it was a slow Force India (on worn slow SS) and it was at a track were you could overtake. He was 3.5 seconds a lap quicker than the Force India at that point.

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 Post subject: Re: Hamilton vs. Vettel
PostPosted: Sun Apr 16, 2017 9:53 pm 
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mds wrote:
lamo wrote:
mds wrote:
sandman1347 wrote:
The safety car timing also hurts Mercedes as Hamilton gets stacked up, incurs a penalty and comes out in 4th.


Actually the SC timing hurt Vettel more as he lost a lead of about 8s he would have had if Bottas would have pitted on the same lap without SC (and much more had the Mercs stayed out longer as Vettel was much faster). Whereas now Vettel essentially had both Mercs immediately in his mirrors after the restart.


An 8 second lead? You think Vettel was over 4 seconds per lap quicker than Bottas?


About 3s/lap IIRC. I'll check live timing.


So Vettel comes out of the pits, gap to Bottas 23.5s. First time he crosses the line gap is reduced to 20.8s. Next time around it's 18.2. Takes another second through L13 S1. Gap down to 16s flat somewhere mid S2. Then SC deploys.

So the earliest Bottas would have pitted was at the end of L13, more than a sector further, Vettel would have cut the gap to somewhere between 15.0-15.5s = 8s to 8.5s in three laps. So the gap would have been about 7s to 7.5s after Bottas had pitted.

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 Post subject: Re: Hamilton vs. Vettel
PostPosted: Sun Apr 16, 2017 10:04 pm 
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Thanks for the numbers - that shows just how terrible strategy for Mercedes was, there strategy guy has blown it in all 3 races.

Given Bottas' speed, he needed to be the first man to pit, him or Hamilton. I guess he was worried about a repeat of Australia, but in Australia Hamilton had to overtake a Red Bull that he was only 1.8 seconds faster than. Vettel had to pass a force India he was 3.3 seconds quicker than on an easier track to pass. Another Mercedes own goal.

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 Post subject: Re: Hamilton vs. Vettel
PostPosted: Sun Apr 16, 2017 10:28 pm 
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mds wrote:
sandman1347 wrote:
The safety car timing also hurts Mercedes as Hamilton gets stacked up, incurs a penalty and comes out in 4th.


Actually the SC timing hurt Vettel more as he lost a lead of about 8s he would have had if Bottas would have pitted on the same lap without SC (and much more had the Mercs stayed out longer as Vettel was much faster). Whereas now Vettel essentially had both Mercs immediately in his mirrors after the restart.

The main point was that being stacked in the pits and getting the penalty really hurt Hamilton's race. Also I haven't heard anyone mention the fact that Mercedes simply had an extremely slow pitstop. They are lucky that no one was close behind Daniel or they would have lost more than just the one position.


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 Post subject: Re: Hamilton vs. Vettel
PostPosted: Sun Apr 16, 2017 10:32 pm 
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optimisteprime wrote:
Vettel is on 2 wins out of 3, and it would be 3 for 3 if not for a badly timed safety car.

However, he's having to pull out all the stops with aggressive strategies and pushing to the limit to get those victories (leaving himself vulnerable to things like that safety car) - I'm not convinced he can stay that relentless all year.

Mercedes still appear to have the pace advantage and I think in the long run that will win out. Ferrari have also had some reliability niggles in practice sessions and have already changed some PU parts which may bite them later in the year.

I'm not seeing a consistent pace advantage on Sunday's for either team. It varies race to race (in fact even stint to stint). I do see a consistent pace advantage on Saturday but that's wasted if the strategists are asleep at the wheel. They're trying to be fair but they need to try to win and only that should be on their mind. They don't have a margin to approach it like this and my guess is that this will have sunk in after today.


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 Post subject: Re: Hamilton vs. Vettel
PostPosted: Sun Apr 16, 2017 10:34 pm 
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sandman1347 wrote:
mds wrote:
sandman1347 wrote:
The safety car timing also hurts Mercedes as Hamilton gets stacked up, incurs a penalty and comes out in 4th.


Actually the SC timing hurt Vettel more as he lost a lead of about 8s he would have had if Bottas would have pitted on the same lap without SC (and much more had the Mercs stayed out longer as Vettel was much faster). Whereas now Vettel essentially had both Mercs immediately in his mirrors after the restart.

The main point was that being stacked in the pits and getting the penalty really hurt Hamilton's race. Also I haven't heard anyone mention the fact that Mercedes simply had an extremely slow pitstop. They are lucky that no one was close behind Daniel or they would have lost more than just the one position.


Being stacked didn't hurt him at all since he passed Ricciardo pretty much immediately. The penalty he inflicted on himself and didn't really have anything to do with the timing of the SC. And crucially even factoring in the 5s penalty he still comes out of it better than Vettel who lost >7s through the SC on both Mercs.

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 Post subject: Re: Hamilton vs. Vettel
PostPosted: Sun Apr 16, 2017 10:39 pm 
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mds wrote:
sandman1347 wrote:
mds wrote:
sandman1347 wrote:
The safety car timing also hurts Mercedes as Hamilton gets stacked up, incurs a penalty and comes out in 4th.


Actually the SC timing hurt Vettel more as he lost a lead of about 8s he would have had if Bottas would have pitted on the same lap without SC (and much more had the Mercs stayed out longer as Vettel was much faster). Whereas now Vettel essentially had both Mercs immediately in his mirrors after the restart.

The main point was that being stacked in the pits and getting the penalty really hurt Hamilton's race. Also I haven't heard anyone mention the fact that Mercedes simply had an extremely slow pitstop. They are lucky that no one was close behind Daniel or they would have lost more than just the one position.


Being stacked didn't hurt him at all since he passed Ricciardo pretty much immediately. The penalty he inflicted on himself and didn't really have anything to do with the timing of the SC. And crucially even factoring in the 5s penalty he still comes out of it better than Vettel who lost >7s through the SC on both Mercs.

The penalty had everything to do with the safety car. The reason he was slowing up was to enable Bottas to stop and get out before he arrived at the box. The penalty then led to him being stuck behind Bottas for several laps in the 2nd and 3rd stints. Interestingly there was no safety car near the end when Erriccson's car failed right on the side of the track. You had marshals within a few meters of the outside of a corner pushing the car. Had anyone gone wide there someone could have been killed.


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 Post subject: Re: Hamilton vs. Vettel
PostPosted: Sun Apr 16, 2017 10:48 pm 
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mds wrote:
mds wrote:
lamo wrote:
mds wrote:
sandman1347 wrote:
The safety car timing also hurts Mercedes as Hamilton gets stacked up, incurs a penalty and comes out in 4th.


Actually the SC timing hurt Vettel more as he lost a lead of about 8s he would have had if Bottas would have pitted on the same lap without SC (and much more had the Mercs stayed out longer as Vettel was much faster). Whereas now Vettel essentially had both Mercs immediately in his mirrors after the restart.


An 8 second lead? You think Vettel was over 4 seconds per lap quicker than Bottas?


About 3s/lap IIRC. I'll check live timing.


So Vettel comes out of the pits, gap to Bottas 23.5s. First time he crosses the line gap is reduced to 20.8s. Next time around it's 18.2. Takes another second through L13 S1. Gap down to 16s flat somewhere mid S2. Then SC deploys.

So the earliest Bottas would have pitted was at the end of L13, more than a sector further, Vettel would have cut the gap to somewhere between 15.0-15.5s = 8s to 8.5s in three laps. So the gap would have been about 7s to 7.5s after Bottas had pitted.


I'm sure I heard on channel 4 that Verstappen was hitting purple sectors when he came out the pits, I'm not even sure how far he got round the track after he pitted though so I could be wrong.

Seeing these times makes it even more unbelievable Mercedes didn't react. Do they have a computer that decides everything and they simply won't go of it lol.

I'm not being harsh but Bottas ruined any chance Mercedes had of winning the race. If they pitted either driver first it would of helped Hamilton and I say Hamilton because he was obviously so much quicker. The race was over once Bottas was slow after the SC.

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 Post subject: Re: Hamilton vs. Vettel
PostPosted: Sun Apr 16, 2017 10:51 pm 
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I wounder when Mercedes was going to pit because Bottas would of got first call and Vettel would of been off in the distance the rate he was going.

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 Post subject: Re: Hamilton vs. Vettel
PostPosted: Sun Apr 16, 2017 10:52 pm 
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sandman1347 wrote:
The penalty had everything to do with the safety car. The reason he was slowing up was to enable Bottas to stop and get out before he arrived at the box. The penalty then led to him being stuck behind Bottas for several laps in the 2nd and 3rd stints. Interestingly there was no safety car near the end when Erriccson's car failed right on the side of the track. You had marshals within a few meters of the outside of a corner pushing the car. Had anyone gone wide there someone could have been killed.


The penalty did not get him stuck behind Bottas for several laps. The second stint was unaffected by the penalty as he only served it during his second stop, and Bottas dove out of the way as soon as Hamilton turned up behind him during his last stint.

Even if you see the penalty as a direct consequence of pit stop timing, Hamilton loses 5s due to SC and Vettel >7s. So Hamilton still benefits a bit and Bottas does big-time.

Agree about the Ericsson incident though.

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Last edited by mds on Sun Apr 16, 2017 11:02 pm, edited 1 time in total.

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 Post subject: Re: Hamilton vs. Vettel
PostPosted: Sun Apr 16, 2017 11:02 pm 
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F1_Ernie wrote:
mds wrote:
mds wrote:
lamo wrote:
mds wrote:
Actually the SC timing hurt Vettel more as he lost a lead of about 8s he would have had if Bottas would have pitted on the same lap without SC (and much more had the Mercs stayed out longer as Vettel was much faster). Whereas now Vettel essentially had both Mercs immediately in his mirrors after the restart.


An 8 second lead? You think Vettel was over 4 seconds per lap quicker than Bottas?


About 3s/lap IIRC. I'll check live timing.


So Vettel comes out of the pits, gap to Bottas 23.5s. First time he crosses the line gap is reduced to 20.8s. Next time around it's 18.2. Takes another second through L13 S1. Gap down to 16s flat somewhere mid S2. Then SC deploys.

So the earliest Bottas would have pitted was at the end of L13, more than a sector further, Vettel would have cut the gap to somewhere between 15.0-15.5s = 8s to 8.5s in three laps. So the gap would have been about 7s to 7.5s after Bottas had pitted.


I'm sure I heard on channel 4 that Verstappen was hitting purple sectors when he came out the pits, I'm not even sure how far he got round the track after he pitted though so I could be wrong.

Seeing these times makes it even more unbelievable Mercedes didn't react. Do they have a computer that decides everything and they simply won't go of it lol.

I'm not being harsh but Bottas ruined any chance Mercedes had of winning the race. If they pitted either driver first it would of helped Hamilton and I say Hamilton because he was obviously so much quicker. The race was over once Bottas was slow after the SC.


Verstappen crashed in S2 of his out lap so no full sector time can be taken into account. But given that he was only 0.8s behind Hamilton before pitting, he would probably have made that time effortlessly on his out lap had the incident not happened.

This lends even more credit to the idea that the Merc benefited.

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 Post subject: Re: Hamilton vs. Vettel
PostPosted: Sun Apr 16, 2017 11:14 pm 
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mds wrote:

Verstappen crashed in S2 of his out lap so no full sector time can be taken into account. But given that he was only 0.8s behind Hamilton before pitting, he would probably have made that time effortlessly on his out lap had the incident not happened.

This lends even more credit to the idea that the Merc benefited.


I got it wrong then, I'm sure I heard it though. I remember lots of people saying in the race thread including me that the SC benefited Mercs.

I was gutted for Verstappen, he would of got past both Mercs. Ricciardo would of pitted the next lap I guess then. I wounder what Mercedes would of done, only because I still can't get my head round why they didn't pit one car earlier.

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 Post subject: Re: Hamilton vs. Vettel
PostPosted: Sun Apr 16, 2017 11:15 pm 
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mds wrote:
sandman1347 wrote:
The penalty had everything to do with the safety car. The reason he was slowing up was to enable Bottas to stop and get out before he arrived at the box. The penalty then led to him being stuck behind Bottas for several laps in the 2nd and 3rd stints. Interestingly there was no safety car near the end when Erriccson's car failed right on the side of the track. You had marshals within a few meters of the outside of a corner pushing the car. Had anyone gone wide there someone could have been killed.


The penalty did not get him stuck behind Bottas for several laps. The second stint was unaffected by the penalty as he only served it during his second stop, and Bottas dove out of the way as soon as Hamilton turned up behind him during his last stint.

Even if you see the penalty as a direct consequence of pit stop timing, Hamilton loses 5s due to SC and Vettel >7s. So Hamilton still benefits a bit and Bottas does big-time.

Agree about the Ericsson incident though.

Hamilton lost a lot of time behind Bottas and you're not counting that in you 7>5 equation. They should have pit Hamilton as soon as Vettel came in and he might have gotten him when the supersofts went off. Hamilton's stints on the softs were definitely stronger than Vettel's on the supers. Water under the bridge but I think Mercedes got caught with their pants down here and were hemorrhaging time to Ferrari at several points during the race.


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 Post subject: Re: Hamilton vs. Vettel
PostPosted: Sun Apr 16, 2017 11:20 pm 
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sandman1347 wrote:
mds wrote:
sandman1347 wrote:
The penalty had everything to do with the safety car. The reason he was slowing up was to enable Bottas to stop and get out before he arrived at the box. The penalty then led to him being stuck behind Bottas for several laps in the 2nd and 3rd stints. Interestingly there was no safety car near the end when Erriccson's car failed right on the side of the track. You had marshals within a few meters of the outside of a corner pushing the car. Had anyone gone wide there someone could have been killed.


The penalty did not get him stuck behind Bottas for several laps. The second stint was unaffected by the penalty as he only served it during his second stop, and Bottas dove out of the way as soon as Hamilton turned up behind him during his last stint.

Even if you see the penalty as a direct consequence of pit stop timing, Hamilton loses 5s due to SC and Vettel >7s. So Hamilton still benefits a bit and Bottas does big-time.

Agree about the Ericsson incident though.

Hamilton lost a lot of time behind Bottas and you're not counting that in you 7>5 equation. They should have pit Hamilton as soon as Vettel came in and he might have gotten him when the supersofts went off. Hamilton's stints on the softs were definitely stronger than Vettel's on the supers. Water under the bridge but I think Mercedes got caught with their pants down here and were hemorrhaging time to Ferrari at several points during the race.

I'm sort of getting a McLaren deja vu.

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 Post subject: Re: Hamilton vs. Vettel
PostPosted: Sun Apr 16, 2017 11:23 pm 
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Interestingly both Hamilton and Vettel have lost time stuck behind there team mate in the last 2 races. Vettel lost his chance to win in China stuck behind Kimi and Vettel couldn't overtake Kimi because he was being towed along in the Red Bulls DRS. If Ferrari had let Vettel pass Kimi he likely would have gone straight by the Red Bull.

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 Post subject: Re: Hamilton vs. Vettel
PostPosted: Sun Apr 16, 2017 11:28 pm 
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sandman1347 wrote:
mds wrote:
sandman1347 wrote:
The penalty had everything to do with the safety car. The reason he was slowing up was to enable Bottas to stop and get out before he arrived at the box. The penalty then led to him being stuck behind Bottas for several laps in the 2nd and 3rd stints. Interestingly there was no safety car near the end when Erriccson's car failed right on the side of the track. You had marshals within a few meters of the outside of a corner pushing the car. Had anyone gone wide there someone could have been killed.


The penalty did not get him stuck behind Bottas for several laps. The second stint was unaffected by the penalty as he only served it during his second stop, and Bottas dove out of the way as soon as Hamilton turned up behind him during his last stint.

Even if you see the penalty as a direct consequence of pit stop timing, Hamilton loses 5s due to SC and Vettel >7s. So Hamilton still benefits a bit and Bottas does big-time.

Agree about the Ericsson incident though.

Hamilton lost a lot of time behind Bottas and you're not counting that in you 7>5 equation. They should have pit Hamilton as soon as Vettel came in and he might have gotten him when the supersofts went off. Hamilton's stints on the softs were definitely stronger than Vettel's on the supers. Water under the bridge but I think Mercedes got caught with their pants down here and were hemorrhaging time to Ferrari at several points during the race.


Yeah well they didn't pit him as soon as Vettel came in, not even the second time around, so there Vettel already overcame the 5s even before the SC came out so basically it was strategy not SC that made Hamilton lose out.

It doesn't matter which way you look at it, the SC benefited both Mercs even with the stacking and the penalty. And then you haven't factored in Verstappen...

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 Post subject: Re: Hamilton vs. Vettel
PostPosted: Sun Apr 16, 2017 11:34 pm 
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mds wrote:
sandman1347 wrote:
mds wrote:
sandman1347 wrote:
The penalty had everything to do with the safety car. The reason he was slowing up was to enable Bottas to stop and get out before he arrived at the box. The penalty then led to him being stuck behind Bottas for several laps in the 2nd and 3rd stints. Interestingly there was no safety car near the end when Erriccson's car failed right on the side of the track. You had marshals within a few meters of the outside of a corner pushing the car. Had anyone gone wide there someone could have been killed.


The penalty did not get him stuck behind Bottas for several laps. The second stint was unaffected by the penalty as he only served it during his second stop, and Bottas dove out of the way as soon as Hamilton turned up behind him during his last stint.

Even if you see the penalty as a direct consequence of pit stop timing, Hamilton loses 5s due to SC and Vettel >7s. So Hamilton still benefits a bit and Bottas does big-time.

Agree about the Ericsson incident though.

Hamilton lost a lot of time behind Bottas and you're not counting that in you 7>5 equation. They should have pit Hamilton as soon as Vettel came in and he might have gotten him when the supersofts went off. Hamilton's stints on the softs were definitely stronger than Vettel's on the supers. Water under the bridge but I think Mercedes got caught with their pants down here and were hemorrhaging time to Ferrari at several points during the race.


Yeah well they didn't pit him as soon as Vettel came in, not even the second time around, so there Vettel already overcame the 5s even before the SC came out so basically it was strategy not SC that made Hamilton lose out.

It doesn't matter which way you look at it, the SC benefited both Mercs even with the stacking and the penalty. And then you haven't factored in Verstappen...

You make a good point. Mercedes lost a lot more time when Vettel pitted than I realized.

Incidentally they seem pretty weak on heavy fuel loads in general. Their first stint in all three races has been underwhelming but that second stint (particularly on the soft tires) is killer.


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 Post subject: Re: Hamilton vs. Vettel
PostPosted: Sun Apr 16, 2017 11:35 pm 
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Assuming Hamilton wasn't one stopping the SC seems it did aid Mercedes. But without it he would have been 7-8 seconds behind Vettel but not have the penalty and if Mercedes pitted him first, he would have been 2nd.

The failure of Max also aided them, I have been saying it for years, the Mercedes strategy person is useless. He didn't have to do anything for 3 years and even then he managed to create situations like Austria 2016 when "battling himself" with either car.

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 Post subject: Re: Hamilton vs. Vettel
PostPosted: Sun Apr 16, 2017 11:37 pm 
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It's funny how this forum seems to get to the bottom of things better than any of the broadcasts. I'm assuming not better than the actual teams though...


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 Post subject: Re: Hamilton vs. Vettel
PostPosted: Sun Apr 16, 2017 11:42 pm 
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sandman1347 wrote:
It's funny how this forum seems to get to the bottom of things better than any of the broadcasts.


Have to admit I'm getting a lot out of live timing, sector per sector and sometimes even more fine-grained. Probably hard to understand all of it fully while commenting, it's during discussions like these that I dive in and analyse as well as possible.

Have a good night :thumbup:

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 Post subject: Re: Hamilton vs. Vettel
PostPosted: Sun Apr 16, 2017 11:45 pm 
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^^^^ Cheers


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 Post subject: Re: Hamilton vs. Vettel
PostPosted: Sun Apr 16, 2017 11:56 pm 
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I hope Mercedes do a strategy review video of this race like they did Australia. Unless they were trying to one stop, there strategy was illogical.

Without the SC one of the Mercedes (whichever one pitted second - assuming the lead car pitted on the SC lap) would have ended up 12+ seconds behind Vettel having been 0.5 seconds from him just 4 laps before and would have been 5th or even 6th (assuming Max didn't retire) Kimi had a very good chance of undercutting the 2nd Mercedes to pit. Absolute madness. If they choose to pit Lewis first, Bottas would have gone from the lead to 5th/6th place, 12 seconds behind the leader in 4 laps... wow.

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