huggybear wrote:
I will be amazed if he gets into the top 5. He'll be going into the race with no experience of Indycar at all. Barrichello had 4 races experience, plus the test, plus the advantage of a brand new car that everyone was still learning.
It's not just about being fast, or about saving fuel, or about managing tyre wear, it's about all of them, plus racing wheel to wheel to wheel at 200+mph for 2.5 F1 races worth of time, on a changing racing line.
One mistake puts you in the wall, if it's your mistake, or someone else's that you're a passenger in. Hildebrand and Sato both learnt this less than a lap from winning in 2011 and 2012.
Alonso may have the speed, but he doesn't have the experience to break into the top 5 on merit without a huge slice of luck.
There's a lot of luck involved in oval racing. No doubt about that. Mario Andretti was a phenomenal race car driver but could only win there once in decades of trying.