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who is faster? Merc or Ferrari?
Poll runs till Fri Dec 01, 2017 2:35 am
Ferrari 39%  39%  [ 39 ]
Mercedes 61%  61%  [ 60 ]
Total votes : 99
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PostPosted: Tue Jul 25, 2017 2:36 pm 
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F1_Ernie wrote:
http://www.skysports.com/f1/news/32420/10954959/formula-1-2017-how-the-balance-of-power-is-shifting-between-mercedes-and-ferrari


Its a decent article, and I don't think we should underestimate how much damage the TDs over the last few weekends have done to Ferrari. The oil burning clarification seems to have had a major effect on their quali pace and if it really was the stiffer floor that led to the balance and set up changes that killed the fronts at Silverstone, then Ferrari really do have a headache following into the rest of the year.

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PostPosted: Tue Jul 25, 2017 6:12 pm 
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IMO the headache for Ferrari is nothing compared to the Mercedes introduction to Dieselgate, part one a recall of 3 million cars, yes, 3 million 8O


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PostPosted: Tue Jul 25, 2017 7:16 pm 
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AnRs wrote:
IMO the headache for Ferrari is nothing compared to the Mercedes introduction to Dieselgate, part one a recall of 3 million cars, yes, 3 million 8O


Dieselgate is going to be small fry if the EU decide that BWM, Mercedes and Audi have been running a cartel to fix the price of their high end cars. The diesel issue is one that I imagine will eventually become a problem for all diesel car manufacturers, i'm certain they have all been playing fast and loose with the emissions figures (much like the MPG figures for most cars). The sudden wholesale change towards electric cars seems to have been borne out by this.

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PostPosted: Sat Jul 29, 2017 1:27 pm 
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Step forward Ferrari. Looking like the team to beat again. Might just be track characteristics but who knows. Makes for a riveting season.


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PostPosted: Sat Jul 29, 2017 2:02 pm 
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I wonder if the short wheelbase is working better around this track (like in Monaco).


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PostPosted: Sat Jul 29, 2017 2:19 pm 
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Laz_T800 wrote:
Step forward Ferrari. Looking like the team to beat again. Might just be track characteristics but who knows. Makes for a riveting season.


Definitely track characteristics. Hungary is like Monaco without walls. There isn't anything quite like it for the remainder of the calendar, except for Singapore. Merc still has the advantage for the remainder of the year imo. They have been doing a real number on Ferrari at the power dependent circuits, and there are many power dependent circuits left on the calendar.


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PostPosted: Sat Jul 29, 2017 2:42 pm 
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Well, Singapore is a certain Vettel win. He is mighty there, and so are Ferrari. And Merc are terrible there.


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PostPosted: Sat Jul 29, 2017 2:53 pm 
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ReservoirDog wrote:
Well, Singapore is a certain Vettel win. He is mighty there, and so are Ferrari. And Merc are terrible there.

Yep based on here and Monaco I'd say Ferrari are a solid bet for Singapore. I'd say Mercedes are equally likely to clean up in Japan and possibly at Spa. For the other tracks I think we will see them roughly equal in race trim.

Ferrari need to improve/show they have improved in qualifying at a track like Spa or Monza though because the Mercedes qualifying advantage is going to make it difficult for Vettel/Ferrari to win regardless of whether the race pace of the two cars is similar.


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PostPosted: Sat Jul 29, 2017 2:57 pm 
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kleefton wrote:
Laz_T800 wrote:
Step forward Ferrari. Looking like the team to beat again. Might just be track characteristics but who knows. Makes for a riveting season.


Definitely track characteristics. Hungary is like Monaco without walls. There isn't anything quite like it for the remainder of the calendar, except for Singapore. Merc still has the advantage for the remainder of the year imo. They have been doing a real number on Ferrari at the power dependent circuits, and there are many power dependent circuits left on the calendar.


Yep. Spa, Monza, Suzuka, and Brazil......all likely to heavily favor Mercedes, easily offsetting tracks like Hungary and Singapore.


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PostPosted: Sat Jul 29, 2017 4:33 pm 
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Hot,SWB and low tyre pressures and Ferrari are the best around Hungary. Not surprising.

Spa will be Mercedes again.

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PostPosted: Sat Jul 29, 2017 4:59 pm 
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Saw this earlier elsewhere so I'm shamelessly pinching the translation again (sorry)...

Ferrari had to modify their car three times in the last couple of weeks/months because the FIA forbid their aero tricks.

1. Oil Story (Canada)
There was one car with a big oil residue in the fuel and the oil comsumption was way too high.
The Paddock assume it must be Ferrari.

2. Blow axle (Baku)
Someone delivered pictures to the FIA where they could see that that Ferrari has found a way to manage the airflow through the front axis. It's a sluice in the axis, which is close or open depending on the pressure in the pipe. It's closed on the straight and open again in the corners, with that they could gain topspeed and lower the air restiance on the straights. The FIA said it's a moveable device therefore it's forbidden.

3. Floor (Austria)
Since the Austria GP the FIA is using a new methode for the floor flexible tests. RB, Renault and Ferrari had to modify their floors as they were simple to flexible.

http://www.auto-motor-und-sport.de/form ... 99200.html

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PostPosted: Sun Jul 30, 2017 10:03 pm 
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Hungaroring was always going to swing more towards Ferrari. Hard to know if they've made any real improvement or if we'll see Merc dominant again come Spa.


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PostPosted: Sun Jul 30, 2017 10:07 pm 
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optimisteprime wrote:
Hungaroring was always going to swing more towards Ferrari. Hard to know if they've made any real improvement or if we'll see Merc dominant again come Spa.

I suppose if Mercedes dominance at Silverstone was down to LWB being good around long fast corners as believed then they should be untouchable at Spa (but then again it seemed pretty close at Spain so maybe Silverstone was down to more than just that). Monza should be interesting. Tight chicanes should favour Ferrari but lots of straights should favour Mercedes.


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PostPosted: Sun Jul 30, 2017 10:25 pm 
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Ferrari head-and-shoulders dominant in Budapest. Let's hope that it keeps changing from track-to-track after the summer break with slightly more tracks in Mercedes favour. Otherwise, it will become a borefest due to Räikkönen's lapdog-ness ...

Into the summer break, it is advantage Vettel and his championship to lose.


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PostPosted: Sun Jul 30, 2017 10:38 pm 
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Paolo_Lasardi wrote:
Ferrari head-and-shoulders dominant in Budapest. Let's hope that it keeps changing from track-to-track after the summer break with slightly more tracks in Mercedes favour. Otherwise, it will become a borefest due to Räikkönen's lapdog-ness ...

Into the summer break, it is advantage Vettel and his championship to lose.

Nah I'd be pretty relaxed right now if I were Hamilton tbh. You'd say that Singapore and possibly Abu Dhabi will be Ferrari tracks but other than that Mercedes will be at least equal and based on Silverstone they're likely to be dominant at tracks like Japan and possibly Spa. Then you have to factor in Mercedes qualifying advantage meaning more often than not on the weekends where the two cars are roughly equal Hamilton will be starting ahead of Vettel.

Personally my money is on Hamilton/Mercedes for both titles, but that's assuming the cars stay as they are relative to eachother now, updates could change that.


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PostPosted: Sun Jul 30, 2017 10:48 pm 
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Yes, as I wrote if it keeps changing from track-to-track it will remain close. Still Vettel has two advantages: a healthy points lead and being the favoured No. 1 driver in his team.
If on the other hand the pendulum swings towards Ferrari track-independent, the championship will be over very, very quickly.So, for sake of a tense championship, we need to hope for Mercedes to stay competitive on faster tracks.

We cannot simply extrapolate the season of course, as the development race goes on.


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PostPosted: Sun Jul 30, 2017 10:49 pm 
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Paolo_Lasardi wrote:
Ferrari head-and-shoulders dominant in Budapest. Let's hope that it keeps changing from track-to-track after the summer break with slightly more tracks in Mercedes favour. Otherwise, it will become a borefest due to Räikkönen's lapdog-ness ...

Into the summer break, it is advantage Vettel and his championship to lose.

I think there's a pretty clear pattern emerging. The Ferrari chassis is superior, producing more mechanical grip and giving Ferrari an advantage at tracks with a lot of slow corners. The Mercedes, however, is faster on the straights, and close enough in high-speed corners to call it even.

Since more of the remaining tracks would seem to favor Merc than Ferrari, I'd struggle to call it advantage Ferrari. Vettel does have an advantage, in that he beats his teammate every time when both run clean, whereas the same can definitely not be said for the Mercedes drivers. That may prove decisive in the end.

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PostPosted: Sun Jul 30, 2017 11:07 pm 
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Exediron wrote:
Paolo_Lasardi wrote:
Ferrari head-and-shoulders dominant in Budapest. Let's hope that it keeps changing from track-to-track after the summer break with slightly more tracks in Mercedes favour. Otherwise, it will become a borefest due to Räikkönen's lapdog-ness ...

Into the summer break, it is advantage Vettel and his championship to lose.

I think there's a pretty clear pattern emerging. The Ferrari chassis is superior, producing more mechanical grip and giving Ferrari an advantage at tracks with a lot of slow corners. The Mercedes, however, is faster on the straights, and close enough in high-speed corners to call it even.

Since more of the remaining tracks would seem to favor Merc than Ferrari, I'd struggle to call it advantage Ferrari. Vettel does have an advantage, in that he beats his teammate every time when both run clean, whereas the same can definitely not be said for the Mercedes drivers. That may prove decisive in the end.


A very fair analysis of the upcoming second half to the season. Without a Kimi type #2 in Mercedes, they may end up losing it all.


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PostPosted: Sun Jul 30, 2017 11:57 pm 
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Paolo_Lasardi wrote:
Yes, as I wrote if it keeps changing from track-to-track it will remain close. Still Vettel has two advantages: a healthy points lead and being the favoured No. 1 driver in his team.
If on the other hand the pendulum swings towards Ferrari track-independent, the championship will be over very, very quickly.So, for sake of a tense championship, we need to hope for Mercedes to stay competitive on faster tracks.

We cannot simply extrapolate the season of course, as the development race goes on.


14 points is not a healthy points lead... Its the same as 4 points in the old system. i.e. Hamilton wins 2 races with Vettel 2nd and its level.

Hamilton wins in Spa and its at least halved, Hamiltons wins a Mercedes 1-2 and its at least down to 4 points - in one race. There are 9 to go..

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PostPosted: Mon Jul 31, 2017 12:07 am 
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Herb Tarlik wrote:
Exediron wrote:
Paolo_Lasardi wrote:
Ferrari head-and-shoulders dominant in Budapest. Let's hope that it keeps changing from track-to-track after the summer break with slightly more tracks in Mercedes favour. Otherwise, it will become a borefest due to Räikkönen's lapdog-ness ...

Into the summer break, it is advantage Vettel and his championship to lose.

I think there's a pretty clear pattern emerging. The Ferrari chassis is superior, producing more mechanical grip and giving Ferrari an advantage at tracks with a lot of slow corners. The Mercedes, however, is faster on the straights, and close enough in high-speed corners to call it even.

Since more of the remaining tracks would seem to favor Merc than Ferrari, I'd struggle to call it advantage Ferrari. Vettel does have an advantage, in that he beats his teammate every time when both run clean, whereas the same can definitely not be said for the Mercedes drivers. That may prove decisive in the end.


A very fair analysis of the upcoming second half to the season. Without a Kimi type #2 in Mercedes, they may end up losing it all.

Or maybe, they`ll end up losing it since they are missing a Vettel type #1 at Mercedes?
Meaning... if Hamilton had been beating Bothas, more often and more consistently (like Vettel has done with Kimi), if Vettel was still a threat, by now Bothas would have been relegated into a Kimi type #2 in Mercedes if not worse... for sure Mercedes have already given us that much of a hint in numerous races this season.


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PostPosted: Mon Jul 31, 2017 12:59 am 
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Migen wrote:
Or maybe, they`ll end up losing it since they are missing a Vettel type #1 at Mercedes?
Meaning... if Hamilton had been beating Bothas, more often and more consistently (like Vettel has done with Kimi), if Vettel was still a threat, by now Bothas would have been relegated into a Kimi type #2 in Mercedes if not worse... for sure Mercedes have already given us that much of a hint in numerous races this season.

Do you really think Kimi has driven at the same level as Bottas over the season to date?

The last two races, quite possibly yes. But he's in the hole because he was nowhere near the front at the start.

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PostPosted: Mon Jul 31, 2017 1:05 am 
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Paolo_Lasardi wrote:
Ferrari head-and-shoulders dominant in Budapest. Let's hope that it keeps changing from track-to-track after the summer break with slightly more tracks in Mercedes favour. Otherwise, it will become a borefest due to Räikkönen's lapdog-ness ...

Into the summer break, it is advantage Vettel and his championship to lose.

Don't be ridiculous, Hamilton is the clear favourite.

Apart from Singapore all the remaining circuits are Mercedes circuits. Mercedes is the faster car, especially in qualifying, and Ferrari are running tight on engines (penalties and reliability failures are inevitable).

Vettel is the clear underdog and I'd be amazed if he actually managed to pull this off.


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PostPosted: Mon Jul 31, 2017 1:19 am 
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KingVoid wrote:
Paolo_Lasardi wrote:
Ferrari head-and-shoulders dominant in Budapest. Let's hope that it keeps changing from track-to-track after the summer break with slightly more tracks in Mercedes favour. Otherwise, it will become a borefest due to Räikkönen's lapdog-ness ...

Into the summer break, it is advantage Vettel and his championship to lose.

Don't be ridiculous, Hamilton is the clear favourite.

Apart from Singapore all the remaining circuits are Mercedes circuits. Mercedes is the faster car, especially in qualifying, and Ferrari are running tight on engines (penalties and reliability failures are inevitable).

Vettel is the clear underdog and I'd be amazed if he actually managed to pull this off.


Binotto corrected the highlighted part at the team principals conference, that thay are not taking a penalty as reliability fixes have been done.


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PostPosted: Mon Jul 31, 2017 3:01 am 
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Exediron wrote:
Migen wrote:
Or maybe, they`ll end up losing it since they are missing a Vettel type #1 at Mercedes?
Meaning... if Hamilton had been beating Bothas, more often and more consistently (like Vettel has done with Kimi), if Vettel was still a threat, by now Bothas would have been relegated into a Kimi type #2 in Mercedes if not worse... for sure Mercedes have already given us that much of a hint in numerous races this season.

Do you really think Kimi has driven at the same level as Bottas over the season to date?

The last two races, quite possibly yes. But he's in the hole because he was nowhere near the front at the start.

I`d say that Bothas has performed a little better than Kimi, but in turn, IMO Vettel too has performed a little better (or more consistently) than Hamilton so far this season, which offsets the 1st instance, because both instances are equally important.

The bottom line is that, Hamilton is capable to beat Bothas far more consistently than he currently has, and had he managed it, with Bothas being a further ~ 30 points down on Hamilton, with Vettel marginally leading the WDC table, I dont see why Hamilton could not have kept the 3rd place today, and probably Herb Tarlik would have been worried at why there isnt "a Bothas type #2" at Ferrari instead.


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PostPosted: Mon Jul 31, 2017 3:17 pm 
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Black_Flag_11 wrote:
Paolo_Lasardi wrote:
Ferrari head-and-shoulders dominant in Budapest. Let's hope that it keeps changing from track-to-track after the summer break with slightly more tracks in Mercedes favour. Otherwise, it will become a borefest due to Räikkönen's lapdog-ness ...

Into the summer break, it is advantage Vettel and his championship to lose.

Nah I'd be pretty relaxed right now if I were Hamilton tbh. You'd say that Singapore and possibly Abu Dhabi will be Ferrari tracks but other than that Mercedes will be at least equal and based on Silverstone they're likely to be dominant at tracks like Japan and possibly Spa. Then you have to factor in Mercedes qualifying advantage meaning more often than not on the weekends where the two cars are roughly equal Hamilton will be starting ahead of Vettel.

Personally my money is on Hamilton/Mercedes for both titles, but that's assuming the cars stay as they are relative to eachother now, updates could change that.

Exactly my thoughts, too. Especially the qualifying advantage gives them a big head start before the race even begins


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PostPosted: Mon Jul 31, 2017 3:31 pm 
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Mercedes did have the 1 lap advantage in the early season, but in the last 8 races Mercedes lead Ferrari 5-3 on poles. If Vettel was 0.050 quicker in either of Austria or Spain that would be 4-4. In that period, both have had 2 races where they dominated the other (Mercedes; Silverstone and Baku. Ferrari; Hungary and Monaco) and the others have been reasonably close with Vettel less than 0.050 behind in Spain and Austria.

Hamilton is favourite for the title for me, he just needs to improve his 1 lap pace. Its his biggest weakness this year by far and frankly its not been good enough. Race pace he has had 1 bad one in Russia, but qualifying he has had 4-5 bad weekends so far.

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PostPosted: Mon Jul 31, 2017 3:41 pm 
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lamo wrote:
Mercedes did have the 1 lap advantage in the early season, but in the last 8 races Mercedes lead Ferrari 5-3 on poles. If Vettel was 0.050 quicker in either of Austria or Spain that would be 4-4. In that period, both have had 2 races where they dominated the other (Mercedes; Silverstone and Baku. Ferrari; Hungary and Monaco) and the others have been reasonably close with Vettel less than 0.050 behind in Spain and Austria.

Hamilton is favourite for the title for me, he just needs to improve his 1 lap pace. Its his biggest weakness this year by far and frankly its not been good enough. Race pace he has had 1 bad one in Russia, but qualifying he has had 4-5 bad weekends so far.


To be fair Bottas got within 0.050 of pole in Monaco as well so could be in the same bracket as Spain and Austria for Seb.

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PostPosted: Mon Jul 31, 2017 3:50 pm 
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lamo wrote:
Mercedes did have the 1 lap advantage in the early season, but in the last 8 races Mercedes lead Ferrari 5-3 on poles. If Vettel was 0.050 quicker in either of Austria or Spain that would be 4-4. In that period, both have had 2 races where they dominated the other (Mercedes; Silverstone and Baku. Ferrari; Hungary and Monaco) and the others have been reasonably close with Vettel less than 0.050 behind in Spain and Austria.

Hamilton is favourite for the title for me, he just needs to improve his 1 lap pace. Its his biggest weakness this year by far and frankly its not been good enough. Race pace he has had 1 bad one in Russia, but qualifying he has had 4-5 bad weekends so far.

Why cut off at the last 8 races, though? That's only 3 off the total of the season and that score is a more significant 8-3. Or if you'd chosen the last 7 races it would be 5-2. The last 6 would be 4-2. Whichever way you look at it, the Mercedes has been overall the quicker car in qualifying and the only time that Ferrari have been able to challenge is when the track gives them a helping hand. It gives the Merc boys a big advantage in the races


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PostPosted: Mon Jul 31, 2017 8:08 pm 
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Zoue wrote:
lamo wrote:
Mercedes did have the 1 lap advantage in the early season, but in the last 8 races Mercedes lead Ferrari 5-3 on poles. If Vettel was 0.050 quicker in either of Austria or Spain that would be 4-4. In that period, both have had 2 races where they dominated the other (Mercedes; Silverstone and Baku. Ferrari; Hungary and Monaco) and the others have been reasonably close with Vettel less than 0.050 behind in Spain and Austria.

Hamilton is favourite for the title for me, he just needs to improve his 1 lap pace. Its his biggest weakness this year by far and frankly its not been good enough. Race pace he has had 1 bad one in Russia, but qualifying he has had 4-5 bad weekends so far.

Why cut off at the last 8 races, though? That's only 3 off the total of the season and that score is a more significant 8-3. Or if you'd chosen the last 7 races it would be 5-2. The last 6 would be 4-2. Whichever way you look at it, the Mercedes has been overall the quicker car in qualifying and the only time that Ferrari have been able to challenge is when the track gives them a helping hand. It gives the Merc boys a big advantage in the races


Ferrari also have 3 front row lockouts.

The remaining were close between Vettel and Hamilton and could easily be down to the driver.

Remember that Kimi has not been known as a great qualifier since his return in 2012, and even Vettel has a patchy qualifying record. Past evidence would probably suggest that Hamilton/Bottas are the stronger qualifiers.


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PostPosted: Mon Jul 31, 2017 8:56 pm 
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davidheath461 wrote:
Remember that Kimi has not been known as a great qualifier since his return in 2012, and even Vettel has a patchy qualifying record. Past evidence would probably suggest that Hamilton/Bottas are the stronger qualifiers.

He hasn't been, but I actually find that odd.

Since rejoining Ferrari, Kimi has consistently fared better in qualifying against his teammates than in race results, and even while he was at Lotus, there was no huge gap where Grosjean outqualified him far more often than he outraced him.

Fans' opinion of who is a fast qualifier and who is not is quite possibly the most fickle thing in all of sports. I forget, is Alonso still not known as a good qualifier?

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PostPosted: Mon Jul 31, 2017 9:18 pm 
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I limited it to the last 8 races as I said Mercedes had a clear advantage earlier in the year, since when it has had a reduced advantage over 1 lap. Anyway, here is the raw data...

Fastest Ferrari relative to fastest Mercedes

AUS +0.268
CHI +0.186
BAH +0.478
RUS -0.095
SPN +0.051
MON -0.045
CAN +0.330
AZE +0.900
AUS +0.042
GB +0.547
HUN -0.254

Ferrari have managed 3 front row lock outs but. Bottas did get close in Monaco but more due to Raikkonens error, Raikkonen was 0.170 up on Bottas on ideal sector times.

Ferrari has been clear faster on 2 out of 11 eleven circuits.
Ferrari also got pole in Russia which was very close between the cars.
Ferrari has been within 0.051 of Mercedes in a further 2 races.

Therefore Ferrari have either been on pole or within 0.051 of it in 5 of the 11 races. The Mercedes is certainly the better car over 1 lap and on some tracks outright dominant (GB, Baku and Bahrain) but the Ferrari has been better or basically equal in nearly half the races in qualifying.

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PostPosted: Mon Jul 31, 2017 10:07 pm 
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lamo wrote:
I limited it to the last 8 races as I said Mercedes had a clear advantage earlier in the year, since when it has had a reduced advantage over 1 lap. Anyway, here is the raw data...

Fastest Ferrari relative to fastest Mercedes

AUS +0.268
CHI +0.186
BAH +0.478
RUS -0.095
SPN +0.051
MON -0.045
CAN +0.330
AZE +0.900
AUS +0.042
GB +0.547
HUN -0.254

Ferrari have managed 3 front row lock outs but. Bottas did get close in Monaco but more due to Raikkonens error, Raikkonen was 0.170 up on Bottas on ideal sector times.

Ferrari has been clear faster on 2 out of 11 eleven circuits.
Ferrari also got pole in Russia which was very close between the cars.
Ferrari has been within 0.051 of Mercedes in a further 2 races.

Therefore Ferrari have either been on pole or within 0.051 of it in 5 of the 11 races. The Mercedes is certainly the better car over 1 lap and on some tracks outright dominant (GB, Baku and Bahrain) but the Ferrari has been better or basically equal in nearly half the races in qualifying.

or, when Ferrari have been ahead or just behind, they've been within a hair's breadth of the Mercs. Hungary was their biggest positive gap at 0.254s and is notable in its isolation. Mercedes, OTOH, have bettered that gap on five occasions, three of which have been around half a second or more. This indicates that the Merc is the car with the advantage and Ferrari are pulling out all the stops to occasionally get within touching distance.

I don't see how you may conclude that the Merc advantage has reduced since the first three races. Since then they've had three races where the gap has been more than 3 tenths, whereas in the first three races that happened only once. They've had one race at just over half a second, with another at nearly a full second. Indeed, in the last four races they've had two with the biggest gaps of the year, with the race before that having the 4th largest gap so far. It's only the fact that two of the races in the last six have been the tightest, most twisty of the season - Monaco and Hungary - which doesn't play well with the Mercs LWB, that we've had the Ferrari looking superior. And, surprise, surprise, one of those is where Ferrari scored their largest qualifying margin.

The Mercedes still clearly has a significant advantage in qualifying, except in tracks which penalise their LWB and where their extra grunt is less useful. But there aren't many of those on the calendar


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Ferrari pole or close to pole;
HUN -0.254
RUS -0.095
MON -0.045
AUS +0.042
SPN +0.051

Ferrari not close to pole;
CHI +0.186
AUS +0.268
CAN +0.330
BAH +0.478
GB +0.547
AZE +0.900

That is the order in terms of best to worst for Ferrari. First 3 races in red. Ferrari didn't get within 0.185 of pole in the opening three races. Mercedes 3-0 up. Since then its 5-3 and Ferrari narrowly lost twice and could easily be leading 5-3 with a very minor swing of 0.050 in two races.

With regards to the rest of the post, yes Mercedes do have an advantage but its not huge. Well it can be huge but only about 30% of the time (Bahrain, Baku, Silverstone). About 50% of the time Ferrari have a chance at pole. That may well change in future races but that is the story of the first 11 races.

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PostPosted: Tue Aug 01, 2017 3:26 am 
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Paolo_Lasardi wrote:
We cannot simply extrapolate the season of course, as the development race goes on.


Words of gold.

The evolution of the cars is constant, and now that the sport has a month off, this is time for the teams to improve their cars. Anything can happen.

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PostPosted: Tue Aug 01, 2017 9:20 am 
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lamo wrote:
Ferrari pole or close to pole;
HUN -0.254
RUS -0.095
MON -0.045
AUS +0.042
SPN +0.051

Ferrari not close to pole;
CHI +0.186
AUS +0.268
CAN +0.330
BAH +0.478
GB +0.547
AZE +0.900

That is the order in terms of best to worst for Ferrari. First 3 races in red. Ferrari didn't get within 0.185 of pole in the opening three races. Mercedes 3-0 up. Since then its 5-3 and Ferrari narrowly lost twice and could easily be leading 5-3 with a very minor swing of 0.050 in two races.

With regards to the rest of the post, yes Mercedes do have an advantage but its not huge. Well it can be huge but only about 30% of the time (Bahrain, Baku, Silverstone). About 50% of the time Ferrari have a chance at pole. That may well change in future races but that is the story of the first 11 races.

Yeah, you're just repeating what you said before, so I'll repeat what I said. Mercedes have increased the gap to Ferrari more than once over the first three races. Two of their biggest gaps have been in the last four races, so there's no evidence at all that the gap has been closing. On the contrary, it's clear that on occasion it's increased. When Ferrari have been ahead, they've scraped ahead. Hungary was the only time they've had anything like a convincing victory. When Mercedes have been ahead, more often than not they've steam-rollered Ferrari and have won by an insurmountable margin. You seem to be implying that Ferrari had it within their grasp to achieve more poles, but given the size of the gap at most of the races it's equally, if not more likely that when the Ferraris have been close it's because the Mercedes pair haven't gotten the most out of their car, except perhaps for the times when the track clearly favoured Ferrari (e.g. Monaco, Hungary).

There's a lot more evidence to suggest the Mercedes usually have a substantial qualifying advantage than that they don't. Plucking arbitrary figures to suit your narrative doesn't change that


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PostPosted: Tue Aug 01, 2017 9:06 pm 
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Arbituary figures? I gave the raw data. Nothing arbitrary about that. Its factual and there wasn't any opinion at all in my last post. I displayed it in seasons order and highest to lowest order. Make of it what you want but everything in my post is just solid data without opinion which means without bias. So please don't excuse me of plucking arbitrary figures.

Statements like "Mercedes drivers not getting the most out of there cars" is subjective, so before you start accusing me of plucking arbitrary figures please take a look at your own post for objectiveness.

The only opinion I did express was that I felt Ferrari were closer in qualifying after the initial races, feel free to disagree. You asked me how I could think this and I showed you that in the first 3 races Ferrari were never once near pole and in the 5 on the next 8 races they got pole or within 0.050 of it. Although in part it is track specific at Hungary and Monaco, that doesn't explain Spain, Austria and Russia.

Similarly, Silverstone and Baku races were track specific in favour of Mercedes. Baku and Silverstone were also Mercedes two most dominant tracks last year too. Hamilton was over 1 second ahead of Verstappen at Silvestone and Rosberg 0.8 ahead of Perez in Baku only bothering to do 1 qualifying run. Hamilton was also on a lap 0.4 up on Rosberg's pole lap in Q3 too when he put it in the wall, so Mercedes would have been even further ahead as well. No doubt its there best track for qualifying over the last 2 years.

So the table looks like this removing the 2 tracks specific tracks for each team, those first 3 races are pretty low down.

Ferrari pole or close to pole;
RUS -0.095
AUS +0.042
SPN +0.051

Ferrari not close to pole;
CHI +0.186
AUS +0.268
CAN +0.330
BAH +0.478

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PostPosted: Tue Aug 01, 2017 9:50 pm 
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lamo wrote:
Arbituary figures? I gave the raw data. Nothing arbitrary about that. Its factual and there wasn't any opinion at all in my last post. I displayed it in seasons order and highest to lowest order. Make of it what you want but everything in my post is just solid data without opinion which means without bias. So please don't excuse me of plucking arbitrary figures.

Statements like "Mercedes drivers not getting the most out of there cars" is subjective, so before you start accusing me of plucking arbitrary figures please take a look at your own post for objectiveness.

The only opinion I did express was that I felt Ferrari were closer in qualifying after the initial races, feel free to disagree. You asked me how I could think this and I showed you that in the first 3 races Ferrari were never once near pole and in the 5 on the next 8 races they got pole or within 0.050 of it. Although in part it is track specific at Hungary and Monaco, that doesn't explain Spain, Austria and Russia.

Similarly, Silverstone and Baku races were track specific in favour of Mercedes. Baku and Silverstone were also Mercedes two most dominant tracks last year too. Hamilton was over 1 second ahead of Verstappen at Silvestone and Rosberg 0.8 ahead of Perez in Baku only bothering to do 1 qualifying run. Hamilton was also on a lap 0.4 up on Rosberg's pole lap in Q3 too when he put it in the wall, so Mercedes would have been even further ahead as well. No doubt its there best track for qualifying over the last 2 years.

So the table looks like this removing the 2 tracks specific tracks for each team, those first 3 races are pretty low down.

Ferrari pole or close to pole;
RUS -0.095
AUS +0.042
SPN +0.051

Ferrari not close to pole;
CHI +0.186
AUS +0.268
CAN +0.330
BAH +0.478

It's arbitrary because you're taking the first three races as some kind of cutoff when they don't mean anything at all. You could equally argue that in the first five races the Ferraris were closer overall to the Mercedes than in the last five, which shows an increase in the gap, rather than a decrease. You've chosen that particular cutoff to make a point that the gap has closed but which doesn't hold up under any scrutiny. But you've made no allowances for e.g. track types, which would influence the results. The data may be impartial, but the data points you've selected and your interpretation of what they represent is anything but.

I didn't say the Mercedes drivers weren't getting the best out of their cars; I said that was one possible interpretation other than the single conclusion you drew, which is very different. You've taken the data and spun it to reflect your own opinion, rather than looked at it objectively and formed a conclusion that way. For example, can you say with any certainty that the larger margins aren't the true representation of the gaps between the cars and the smaller ones aren't the result of the Mercedes drivers not extracting optimum performance? Not saying that is definitely the case, but how can you dismiss it as a possibility? After all, the Ferraris have never enjoyed the kind of margins the Merc ones have, so the evidence suggests that the default position is the Mercedes being ahead.


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PostPosted: Tue Aug 01, 2017 11:16 pm 
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I stayed away from drawing any conclusions, I presented the facts for yourself and readers to look at and make their own minds up over. Whilst the first 3 races part is just a something I personally feel and have a gut feeling about and also stated by Vettel himself - Ferrari had there biggest update up until that point after the fly away races in Russia - I welcome anybody to disagree with that and is certainly something that can't be proven for or against so there isn't really anymore for either of us to add to that. But having now looked into it in my detail I actually have more faith in that statement. If Australia was run again next week, my gut feeling is Vettel would be hard for Hamilton to beat in qualifying, that is a big Ferrari track.

I did not draw a conclusion - I presented the numbers and let them do the talking. You are keen to state Hungary and Monaco as track specific advantages but ignore the races the Mercedes have track specific advantages in Silverstone and Baku.

The default position is certainly Mercedes being ahead, like I have said in each of my posts and is clear from the numbers. I am not sure which part of anything I have said you disagree with (other than the first 3 race thing) ?

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Last edited by lamo on Wed Aug 02, 2017 12:45 pm, edited 1 time in total.

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PostPosted: Wed Aug 02, 2017 9:48 am 
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Posts: 1479
lamo wrote:
I limited it to the last 8 races as I said Mercedes had a clear advantage earlier in the year, since when it has had a reduced advantage over 1 lap. Anyway, here is the raw data...

Fastest Ferrari relative to fastest Mercedes

AUS +0.268
CHI +0.186
BAH +0.478
RUS -0.095
SPN +0.051
MON -0.045
CAN +0.330
AZE +0.900
AUS +0.042
GB +0.547
HUN -0.254

Ferrari have managed 3 front row lock outs but. Bottas did get close in Monaco but more due to Raikkonens error, Raikkonen was 0.170 up on Bottas on ideal sector times.

Ferrari has been clear faster on 2 out of 11 eleven circuits.
Ferrari also got pole in Russia which was very close between the cars.
Ferrari has been within 0.051 of Mercedes in a further 2 races.

Therefore Ferrari have either been on pole or within 0.051 of it in 5 of the 11 races. The Mercedes is certainly the better car over 1 lap and on some tracks outright dominant (GB, Baku and Bahrain) but the Ferrari has been better or basically equal in nearly half the races in qualifying.


A Vettel in his normal form, i.e. .2 - .3 quicker than KR, would have increased Ferrari's gap in Monaco and reduced Mercedes gap in Silverstone. All in all pretty even. A marginal advantage for Mercedes in qualifying. Very even in the races, swniging back and forth with the tracks changing. Ferrari smartly putting everything behind Vettel, Mercedes adament that their drivers take points from each other, Vettel leading the points - putting all this together = advantage Vettel.

What will be decisive: the development race!

As a fan of a close wdc race, one needs to root for 1st both to stay even or 2nd Mercedes being ahead, because:
M = F --> 2 or 3 horse race for the wdc; 3 horse race for wins
M >= F --> same
M >> F --> 1or 2 horse race wdc; 2 horse race wins
F >> M --> 1 horse "race" wdc and wins (2013 all over again; I am sure the Vettel brigade would love this scenario ...)
F >= M --> 1 or 2 horse race wdc; 2 or 3 horse race wins


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PostPosted: Wed Aug 02, 2017 3:24 pm 
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lamo wrote:
I stayed away from drawing any conclusions, I presented the facts for yourself and readers to look at and make their own minds up over. Whilst the first 3 races part is just a something I personally feel and have a gut feeling about and also stated by Vettel himself - Ferrari had there biggest update up until that point after the fly away races in Russia - I welcome anybody to disagree with that and is certainly something that can't be proven for or against so there isn't really anymore for either of us to add to that. But having now looked into it in my detail I actually have more faith in that statement. If Australia was run again next week, my gut feeling is Vettel would be hard for Hamilton to beat in qualifying, that is a big Ferrari track.

I did not draw a conclusion - I presented the numbers and let them do the talking. You are keen to state Hungary and Monaco as track specific advantages but ignore the races the Mercedes have track specific advantages in Silverstone and Baku.

The default position is certainly Mercedes being ahead, like I have said in each of my posts and is clear from the numbers. I am not sure which part of anything I have said you disagree with (other than the first 3 race thing) ?

Nah, you're doing what detective shows like to call "leading the witness." You're clearly trying to make out the Merc advantage was biggest in the opening three races and that somehow the pendulum has swung since then. But as I've pointed out, that's just being extremely selective with interpreting the data. Pick just about any other data point and the results look very different. It's quite clear when you look at both the season as a whole and the recent races that Mercedes generally have a fairly substantial speed advantage on Saturday, with only a couple of track-specific exceptions

And if you're going to present Vettel as your star witness, it's odd that you haven't mentioned his recent interview where he's called the Mercedes qualifying advantage "game changing." It's not a minor thing but gives the team a significant advantage come Sunday. Ferrari are generally fighting an uphill battle and more often than not start each race having to work out how to get past. If that trend continues, it gives Mercedes a fairly substantial advantage for both titles, especially since more of the circuits coming up favour the Mercedes package than do the Ferrari one (as has been the case all season, in fact). Both the WDC and WCC are Mercedes to lose IMO


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