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Where will Vettel finish the Malaysian Grand Prix
Poll ended at Sun Oct 01, 2017 1:43 pm
1st 9%  9%  [ 3 ]
2nd 3%  3%  [ 1 ]
3rd 6%  6%  [ 2 ]
4th 42%  42%  [ 14 ]
5th 9%  9%  [ 3 ]
6th 15%  15%  [ 5 ]
7th - 10th 6%  6%  [ 2 ]
Non points finish 0%  0%  [ 0 ]
Retires Mechanical (after lap one) 0%  0%  [ 0 ]
Retires Collision (after lap one) 6%  6%  [ 2 ]
Retires on opening lap 3%  3%  [ 1 ]
Does not start 0%  0%  [ 0 ]
Total votes : 33
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PostPosted: Sat Sep 30, 2017 1:43 pm 
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No need to really explain this one. Vote where you think Vettel will finish tomorrow.

He starts at the back. SkySportsF1 provided this handy chart of the lowest grid position that has achieved each points finishing position at this track:

Code:
Finished   Grid slot
1st        8th
2nd        10th
3rd        10th
4th        17th
5th        21st
6th        20th
7th        22nd
8th        22nd
9th        19th
10th       20th


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PostPosted: Sat Sep 30, 2017 1:48 pm 
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Without any dramas at the front, he will be able to get ahead of everyone except the top 5. So, 6th should be the default result.

If trouble hits the frontrunners, higher positions are entirely possible (and if KR ends up at the end of the top 5, of course).


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PostPosted: Sat Sep 30, 2017 1:49 pm 
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Yeah default 6th position unless something happens to the front 5.

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PostPosted: Sat Sep 30, 2017 1:55 pm 
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Barring any reliability issues or Max related off the line mayhem, Lewis should win.

I reckon both red bulls will finished ahead of Kimi. Seb should be sixth easily, and if he can get Bottas, he should finish 4th. By then the top 3 would probably be out of reach.

He will finish no lower than 5th.

Having said that, seems like theres some chance of rain tomorrow.


Last edited by Desert Storm on Sat Sep 30, 2017 2:08 pm, edited 1 time in total.

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PostPosted: Sat Sep 30, 2017 1:59 pm 
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Interesting numbers - I bet no other track has numbers like that. The easiest track to overtake on.

He will be in 6th position by lap 10. If there is a SC after that point and/or rain then he can finish anywhere, including winning. He is 2-3 seconds a lap quicker than the field up until 6th place. I suspect by the time he gets into 6th he will only be 10-15 seconds off the 5th place man.

Its the best track to start last on, throw in the weather and anything is possible. I think even without a SC all race and it staying dry he will beat Bottas to get at least 5th and probably at least 1 Red Bull (although that might take reliability). If I had to pick a number I would say 4th.

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PostPosted: Sat Sep 30, 2017 2:31 pm 
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I think he will take Bottas to get 5th if the top four also finish and there is no rain.

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PostPosted: Sat Sep 30, 2017 3:01 pm 
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I'll stick him down for a 4th

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PostPosted: Sat Sep 30, 2017 3:17 pm 
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5th. Pure guesswork


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PostPosted: Sat Sep 30, 2017 3:38 pm 
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I think 4th, and I would not be surprised to see him 3rd. He's in the fastest car, and is the fastest driver/car package by some margin, particularly for race pace.

If he ends up behind Kimi, and Kimi has no opportunity to advance, there will be a switcheroo. I think if Kimi is behind Hamilton on the final lap he'll be instructed to fall back through the field to just behind Vettel.

I think Vettel will finish ahead of Bottas whatever happens, and there is a good chance of at least one of the top four having a DNF.

If it's mixed conditions anyone can win.


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PostPosted: Sat Sep 30, 2017 3:41 pm 
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Alienturnedhuman wrote:
I think 4th, and I would not be surprised to see him 3rd. He's in the fastest car, and is the fastest driver/car package by some margin, particularly for race pace.

If he ends up behind Kimi, and Kimi has no opportunity to advance, there will be a switcheroo. I think if Kimi is behind Hamilton on the final lap he'll be instructed to fall back through the field to just behind Vettel.

I think Vettel will finish ahead of Bottas whatever happens, and there is a good chance of at least one of the top four having a DNF.

If it's mixed conditions anyone can win.


I wonder if Ferrari would switch them if the order was;

1) HAM
2) RAI
3) VER
4) VET

That would be extreme but the WCC has basically gone for them already.

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PostPosted: Sat Sep 30, 2017 3:43 pm 
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4th at a minimum I reckon, a safety car or two and the pack will be tight, and he is in probably the best car this weekend (if it holds together)

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PostPosted: Sat Sep 30, 2017 3:47 pm 
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lamo wrote:
Alienturnedhuman wrote:
I think 4th, and I would not be surprised to see him 3rd. He's in the fastest car, and is the fastest driver/car package by some margin, particularly for race pace.

If he ends up behind Kimi, and Kimi has no opportunity to advance, there will be a switcheroo. I think if Kimi is behind Hamilton on the final lap he'll be instructed to fall back through the field to just behind Vettel.

I think Vettel will finish ahead of Bottas whatever happens, and there is a good chance of at least one of the top four having a DNF.

If it's mixed conditions anyone can win.


I wonder if Ferrari would switch them if the order was;

1) HAM
2) RAI
3) VER
4) VET

That would be extreme but the WCC has basically gone for them already.

If I was running Ferrari I would switch them if it was anything up to:

1] HAM
2] RAI
3] xxx
4] xxx
5] xxx
6] xxx
7] xxx
8] xxx
9] VET

It gives Vettel +2 in the championship. I'd even consider it if Vettel was 10/11 and on the same lap (obviously).

As you say, the constructor's is basically over for them, and the WDC is the one people remember anyway, it's the emotive championship and the best for marketing.

Far more casual F1 fans (or non F1 fans) will know that Hamilton won the 2008 F1 Championship than that Ferrari won the 2008 F1 Championship.

Every point counts, just as Mercedes are debating whether they'll regret the -3 points Hamilton took honouring his agreement with Bottas in Hungary, the one or two extra points Vettel will get at Kimi's expense for giving up second to promote Vettel by a place is worth far more.


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PostPosted: Sat Sep 30, 2017 3:53 pm 
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If there is one safety car Vettel could be seriously fighting for third, if there are two safety cars then he's got a real chance of victory!


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PostPosted: Sat Sep 30, 2017 3:55 pm 
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Alienturnedhuman wrote:
lamo wrote:
Alienturnedhuman wrote:
I think 4th, and I would not be surprised to see him 3rd. He's in the fastest car, and is the fastest driver/car package by some margin, particularly for race pace.

If he ends up behind Kimi, and Kimi has no opportunity to advance, there will be a switcheroo. I think if Kimi is behind Hamilton on the final lap he'll be instructed to fall back through the field to just behind Vettel.

I think Vettel will finish ahead of Bottas whatever happens, and there is a good chance of at least one of the top four having a DNF.

If it's mixed conditions anyone can win.


I wonder if Ferrari would switch them if the order was;

1) HAM
2) RAI
3) VER
4) VET

That would be extreme but the WCC has basically gone for them already.

If I was running Ferrari I would switch them if it was anything up to:

1] HAM
2] RAI
3] xxx
4] xxx
5] xxx
6] xxx
7] xxx
8] xxx
9] VET

It gives Vettel +2 in the championship. I'd even consider it if Vettel was 10/11 and on the same lap (obviously).

As you say, the constructor's is basically over for them, and the WDC is the one people remember anyway, it's the emotive championship and the best for marketing.

Far more casual F1 fans (or non F1 fans) will know that Hamilton won the 2008 F1 Championship than that Ferrari won the 2008 F1 Championship.

Every point counts, just as Mercedes are debating whether they'll regret the -3 points Hamilton took honouring his agreement with Bottas in Hungary, the one or two extra points Vettel will get at Kimi's expense for giving up second to promote Vettel by a place is worth far more.


Trading 2nd and 9th for 8th and 9th is pretty extreme and I wouldn't rule it out but Kimi would be absolutely livid.

If the points gap wasn't 28 then I think they would do it if they were 2nd and 4th but there is still quite a way to go and its probably not worth the negative PR at this point.

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PostPosted: Sat Sep 30, 2017 3:57 pm 
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My guess is 4th, one place behind Hamilton who I think will finish 3rd.


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PostPosted: Sat Sep 30, 2017 3:58 pm 
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I guess they will only swap if they are directly next to each other in the race otherwise it will be too demoralising for Kimi and probably would not help Vettel in the long run who has probably already lost the wdc barring any 2007 like miracles.

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PostPosted: Sat Sep 30, 2017 4:29 pm 
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6th would be the default result. Anything higher than that and he would have done great. None of the top 5 cars are going to be easy to pass, in fact they will probably be impossible to pass, unless it is a wet track.


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PostPosted: Sat Sep 30, 2017 4:42 pm 
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mas wrote:
I guess they will only swap if they are directly next to each other in the race otherwise it will be too demoralising for Kimi and probably would not help Vettel in the long run who has probably already lost the wdc barring any 2007 like miracles.

Yeah if Vettel is running behind Kimi then I could see Kimi slowing down and allowing him to pass, but Kimi losing multiple positions to let Vettel pass, I don't see that happening.

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PostPosted: Sat Sep 30, 2017 5:06 pm 
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With a well-timed safety car, I can see him finishing as high as 4th. By default, I would say he should easily make it into the points and 6th or 7th would be par for the course. I'm going to guess a 5th place finish overall.


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PostPosted: Sat Sep 30, 2017 5:12 pm 
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If the new engine is an upgrade and he has all the fresh tyres so he will catch up for sure. If there is no SC though I cannot see him making podium. I will go with P6 assuming none of the top guys have a bad race with no SC

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PostPosted: Sat Sep 30, 2017 9:24 pm 
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I put 4th, I'm hoping for rain to mix things up.


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PostPosted: Sat Sep 30, 2017 11:19 pm 
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jimmyj wrote:
I put 4th, I'm hoping for rain to mix things up.

Rain might help but then again it's no guarantee for Vettel, his recent wet weather performances have been a mixed bag.

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2017: Currently 11th

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PostPosted: Sun Oct 01, 2017 12:06 am 
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I can see him clinching 3rd. Nothing below 4th. Keep in mind his car will be optimized for race, rather than quali. Given the advantage a pole gives you, you can be assured all teams compromise the race setup a bit for better quali performance. His car will have no such compromises. Vettel is also very good and coming through traffic.


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PostPosted: Sun Oct 01, 2017 12:43 am 
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I put collision after lap 1. I have no evidence to support this, but I feel like Vettel can have brain farts when pressure is on and he's needing to overtake. I see him more as a front of the field bully.


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PostPosted: Sun Oct 01, 2017 1:44 am 
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bradtheboywonder wrote:
I put collision after lap 1. I have no evidence to support this, but I feel like Vettel can have brain farts when pressure is on and he's needing to overtake. I see him more as a front of the field bully.


He'll be starting from the pits, not the grid.


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PostPosted: Sun Oct 01, 2017 6:58 am 
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lamo wrote:
Trading 2nd and 9th for 8th and 9th is pretty extreme and I wouldn't rule it out but Kimi would be absolutely livid.

If the points gap wasn't 28 then I think they would do it if they were 2nd and 4th but there is still quite a way to go and its probably not worth the negative PR at this point.

Wow. Making Kimi start from the back is a more extreme effort to promote Vettel by a place than even I would have taken ;)


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PostPosted: Sun Oct 01, 2017 8:51 am 
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PF1 Forum got this 50% correct. He also retired from a collision, just after the chequered flag ;)


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PostPosted: Sun Oct 01, 2017 9:06 am 
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mcdo wrote:
I'll stick him down for a 4th

Right, where do I pick up my winnings?

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