planetf1.com

We heard the phrase many times, lets see how Nico does when another team gets in among Mercedes fighting for the title. Well that season is now but unfortunately we never got to see it. I've decided to take a look into how he might have been doing compared to Bottas and Hamilton given past form.

Vettel - 141
Hamilton - 129
Bottas - 93
Raikkonen - 73

For comparisons sake, I will give Nico the DNF in Spain that Bottas had. How races unfold is a bit of lottery but we can to a extent predict where he might have been starting races and given that the starts are now "back to normal" after the lottery that was 2016 its safe to assume grid order roughly translated into race order on the first lap.

Aus-
Bottas qualified closer to Hamilton than Rosberg ever managed in Austalia, so I think its fair to say Nico starts this race 3rd and with zero overtaking and Mercedes strategy preference to the lead car - he likely finishes 3rd. 18 points = Bottas total

Chi-
Another track Hamilton was 3-0 up in qualifying over Nico on. Bottas started 3rd less than 0.2 behind Hamilton. Rosberg likely would have started third. He likely would have finished 3rd, Bottas spun and finished 6th in this race. No such errors for Nico. 18 points +8 over Bottas

Bah-
A track he was 2-2 in qualifying with Hamilton with. He had a good chance of pole and to beat Hamilton, I do not foresee him having bad pace like Bottas but Vettel likely still would have beaten him. 18 points +11 over Bottas

Russia-
A decent track for Rosberg but a very good one for Bottas. I am going to give Bottas the benefit of some doubt and say he won this on talent and Nico wouldn't be able to replicate his result in beating Vettel, so Nico comes home 2nd to Vettel. 18 points +4 over Bottas

Spain-
DNF - unfortunate for Nico as its a strong track for him.

Monaco-
3rd place finish for Nico, I can't see him getting anything else. 15 points +4 over Bottas

Canada
A strong Hamilton track. Nico follows Hamilton home in a 1-2. 18 points +4 over Bottas

This would put Nico on 97 points and 3rd in the WDC and Hamilton would have 3 less points on 126. Nico would be 44 points down on Vettel.

This Mercedes is quite a fickle car and above has given Nico no "bad weekends" like the actual drivers have suffered but even then he comes out just +4 points over Bottas but surprisingly he wouldn't have won a race yet which personally even though it is my analysis its surprising. Maybe Bahrain? But the Ferrari race pace was very strong. Russia is probably the most likely, but I just feel it is Bottas' best track and he really nailed it that weekend, not confident that Nico would have been able to beat Seb that weekend, Bottas barely did it.

Maybe the affect of a close championship with a team breathing down Mercedes' neck would mean Nico wins a lot less races as if Hamilton is off form or on a weaker track for him - Vettel wins the races. Where as over 2014-2016 if Hamilton was off form or on a weak track Nico got 3-4 wins per season that way. That and an on form Nico still isn't enough to consistently beat both Vettel and Lewis.

Not a serious analysis, but a little fun in the lull between races. Nico wouldn't be doing much better than Bottas but like Bottas in 2017 and Hamilton 2016 his title hopes would have taken a massive blow due to engine failure(s). Also if it was Hamilton who took a DNF in a race and not Nico, Nico would be way clear of him in the WDC despite Hamilton winning 3 races and him 0.

There are some opinions I have seen on here, never did I imagine something like this!

This is completely impossible to know.

Exactly. Not only due to driving and chance event, but such things as Nico's input to setup. Hamilton bat have not be toodling along at the midfield had Nico's setup been good enough to switch to his car etc.

All other things being equal though, I think over the 100 points, possibly infront of Lewis, but as I say, his input may have moved Lewis on.

That is of course true but this is an F1 forum and speculation is part of that. We saw enough of Hamilton vs Rosberg in 2013-2017 to get an idea of how they perform against one another in varying cars, tyres etc.

So whilst it is impossible to draw a conclusion over individual races it is quite possible to give a somewhat realistic prediction of a season outcome. Hamilton out scored Rosberg provided he didn't have a large disparity in reliability, so if Hamilton has a bulletproof car (which he has in 2017) its not a large leap to predict him being in front.

Likewise, if Vettel isn't in next years Ferrari it would be a safe assumption that he would be ahead of Kimi or if Vettel left Red Bull and Webber remained, it would be obvious to me Vettel would have been ahead of Webber was unless there was a crazy year like 2010 that allowed Webber to challenge Vettel through having a bulletproof whilst Vettels kept failing.

But I appreciate if speculation isn't for you, but do you think Bottas is performing better than Rosberg?
- He currently has a better qualifying record against Hamilton and I believe ahead when both finished (accounting for reliability) is very similar too.

This isn't an opinion piece, its a speculative analysis using 4 seasons of data of Hamilton vs Rosberg projected onto 2017.This isn't my opinion. I appreciate speculating isn't for everybody.

So Rosberg would have been in front of Hamilton despite posting a retirement and going against the form of the last 3 years?

_________________
PF1 Pick 10 Competition

2013: 5th Place
2014: Champion
2015: 3rd Place
2016: 4th Place
2017: 9th Place
2018: Currently 3rd

Wins: Canada 2018, Abu Dhabi 2017
Podiums: (6)

Would Rosberg have had a retirement?

I doubt he would have made two big slip ups at least.

How can you possibly say, or are you saying he had better mechanics! Bottas looks at least as good as NR. Rosberg has to be in it to win it, he has voted with his feet.

Probably a fair analysis. Overall Bottas has been doing great in qualy, up there with Rosberg at his best IMO. There are questions over his pace in the first stint, which wouldn't have applied to Rosberg - however I don't think it would change the results too much. The DNF makes the points gap look bigger than reality. And the same would have applied to Rosberg

_________________
I don't rely entirely on God

I rely on Prost



FA#14

The engine blew up.

_________________
PF1 Pick 10 Competition

2013: 5th Place
2014: Champion
2015: 3rd Place
2016: 4th Place
2017: 9th Place
2018: Currently 3rd

Wins: Canada 2018, Abu Dhabi 2017
Podiums: (6)

Personally, I think that Rosberg is much underrated and that he would about equal with Hamilton. Something like, both have a victory, and equal points in 22-3 position, something that would make Vettel's life easier. Until the team orders kick in.

_________________
The end is near

Until the team orders kick in.

But as the number '1' driver and obviously the number one driver in the team would he listen to any team orders instructing him to let Hamilton pass or to aid his race?

I highly doubt Rosberg would have agreed to be nothing but a pawn for Hamilton like Bottas was in Spain.

Then again, Rosberg would have been the reigning WDC, while Bottas is currently on a 1 year contract, so Nico would be in a higher/better position to refuse team orders if he thought they were unjust.

Given this is speculation 'open season', I'm inclined to think the euphoria of being reigning WDC combined with his technical/engineering nous (if Toto is to be believed), Nico could very well not just be at par with Hamilton but actually avoid setup struggles with the moody 2017 Merc handing him a slight advantage.

What would he have done differently? Just come into the pits without telling anyone? Just let Vettel past immediately? Both seem unlikely.

If Rosberg was in the exactly the same position as Bottas he would of done exactly the same thing.

_________________
PF1 Pick 10 Competition

2016: 24th place
2017: 4th place

Wins: Spain 2016, Canada 2017, Malaysia 2017
Podiums: 2nd Germany 2016, 3rd Mexico 2016

The likelyhood is, he wouldn't have been that far back to impede Vettel. But Vettel did lead the WDC at that point, by 13 points, so he would be minimising his points gap to the WDC leader by trying to win Lewis the race with Vettel 2nd so it would help his own title bid as well as the team as a whole

Rosberg is a big team player, he moved for Hamilton in Monaco 2016. The question is, would Hamilton move for him? I don't think so. Just my opinion.

_________________
The end is near

In that scenario he would, Rosberg was 4 seconds a lap slower at the point he let Hamilton through, Hamilton was 4 seconds clear of him after 1 lap and 10.3 seconds clear after 4 laps. It was a very exceptional circumstance.

Hamilton also let Rosberg through during a race in 2013.

No, I meant the two offs which he himself called schoolboy errors. The Dnf is a DNF, but had he not had the offs he would have been higher up and Hamilton had a bad race, so could well have been infront. Politics may have been involve then, or not.

I do think Rosberg is a little better than Bottas, but there isn't a massive gulf. Bottas is capable of growing a fraction and stepping up. It's the top drivers in the top tier of open wheel racing. Even the rubbish ones are, nearly always, still brilliant when looking at the talent pool of motorsport as a whole. It is very fine margins at the top seperating the good from great.

There is, in my opinion, the same gap between Bottas and Rosberg as there was Rosberg to Hamilton. The drivers are closely enough matched that a bit of bad luck, or an off day, can offset superior talent.

The season has pretty much played out like the 2014 F1 season in terms of performance. But Hamilton had 2 DNFs in first 7 races that year and the car was the class of the field so it was always 1-2's.

Hamilton was 4-1 up when both finished in 2014 (Likely 6-1 or 5-2 if Hamilton finished Australia/Canada)
Hamilton is 4-2 up when both finished in 2017 (Likely 5-2 if Bottas finished in Spain)

Hamilton is 4-3 up in qualifying in both seasons. Hamilton has had superior race pace and it is close in qualifying.

I can't remember the 2nd off, he dropped it in China behind the SC in the wet. What was the other one?

Seems like utter claptrap to me and sounds like the kind of thing an anti-Rosberg person or a Hamilton fan would come up with.

As a Rosberg fan, I'm going to defend him.

From everything I saw last year, Rosberg was at his best and getting better. He'd begun to take Hamilton on at his own game and was unlucky not to get away with it where the stewards were concerned. He learned what he wasn't allowed to do and he would have continued to use this in his fight not only against Hamilton but against the Ferraris too.

As an observer of F1 for over 40 years, I've seen world champions have their best year when they are the reigning champion - albeit that they might not have had the reliability to successfully defend the title. I believe Rosberg would have continued to improve as he relaxed into his defence with less pressure on trying to prove anything or gaining the first title.

I could just as easily argue that Rosberg would now be leading the championship or would at least be ahead of Hamilton. Would he have made the mistake of not getting out of Q2 in Monaco? Possibly not.

Would he out qualify Hamilton at any of the races so far? Maybe. Would he follow Hamilton home every time out? Not necessarily.

The truth is that Rosberg could be leading the championship, 175 points ahead of Hamilton or Hamilton could be leading it 175 points ahead of Rosberg or all manner of possibilities in between.

I only remember one off and Bottas was running a few places behind Hamilton when he went off and was slower to boot, you are sort of magically saying without the off then he would have beat Hamilton.

_________________
PF1 Pick 10 Competition

2013: 5th Place
2014: Champion
2015: 3rd Place
2016: 4th Place
2017: 9th Place
2018: Currently 3rd

Wins: Canada 2018, Abu Dhabi 2017
Podiums: (6)

I think some don't seem to realise that what tended to keep Rosberg in the game was Hamilton having mechanical issues, unfortunately for Bottas thus far Hamilton has not had any issues whilst Bottas himself has had one race stopping issue.

Rosberg with more mechanical issues than Hamilton would have no chance of beating him.

_________________
PF1 Pick 10 Competition

2013: 5th Place
2014: Champion
2015: 3rd Place
2016: 4th Place
2017: 9th Place
2018: Currently 3rd

Wins: Canada 2018, Abu Dhabi 2017
Podiums: (6)

Yeah Rosberg upped his game by crashing into Hamilton and he actually retired because the pressure was getting too much for him and after having achieved his lifetime ambition of being world champion he basically had nothing more left in him to give, all this about how much better Rosberg would have been this season is a bit of hypothetical nonsense.

_________________
PF1 Pick 10 Competition

2013: 5th Place
2014: Champion
2015: 3rd Place
2016: 4th Place
2017: 9th Place
2018: Currently 3rd

Wins: Canada 2018, Abu Dhabi 2017
Podiums: (6)

2016 was Rosbergs worst year of the four against Hamilton though. He got out qualified by more than 0.3 - 9 times in 18 qualifying sessions they both took part in. That kind of margin would see him starting a lot of race 3rd and 4th this year. Just like 2014 he challenged for the title off the back of Hamiltons reliability issues and to a lesser extent Hamilton messing up starts.

Without Hamilton having bad reliability Rosberg never showed over 2014-2016 that he could out score Hamilton over a season. Although he did show he could get very close in 2013. Hamilton also isn't making bad starts this year. Nico won 9 races last year, 7 of them Hamilton had a reliability issue or a bad start. How is Nico going to win races if Hamilton isn't doing either? I just can't see him doing it in a straight fight, he never showed he could do that more than 3-4 times per year.

You could argue Rosberg would be leading the WDC now but all good arguments are backed up with data and reason, the only thing you came up with was WDC's improve the season after winning it.

Actually according to Autosport while Hamilton is up 4-3 in quali, both the average grid position and quali lap time difference is in Bottas' favour.

Regarding the topic I'm going to second this:

_________________
Räikkönen - Vettel - Bottas
Thank you Nico - You´re the champ!

PF1 Pick 10 Competition 2016: CHAMPION (2 wins, 8 podiums)

Nico retired because he had achieved what he wanted and wasn't willing to put the same level of preparation into his racing.
It's hard to see him operating at the highest level of F1 drivers considering he had mentally checked out after Abu Dhabi.

_________________
#Keep Fighting Michael

Well, here's some reason: past performance doesn't guarantee future results.

_________________
Go Vandoorne - Verstappen - Vettel!

Pokerman and lamo, I have to put my hand up to being wrong here, I thought he had two two offs that sent him down the field, but can not remember, so will fess up to it.

Other than that, I think he is doing a good job, but not pressuring Hamilton as much as Nico would haven and I dont think he is in a position to take advantage of Lewis having a bad day, or even bad lap as Nico would have.

Lewis has had two poor (by his standards) races, and possibly Nico would have suffered in the same races, but then he may have taken advantage, I dont know. Gut says Nico closer to Lewis, head says Lewis has had the better of Botas, but gut again says by not as much as he would of Nico.

All speculation, but thats al we have.

Yep I said this as well, when a driver checks out mentally he's never going to be as good, plus Rosberg was never as good as Hamilton in the first place.

_________________
PF1 Pick 10 Competition

2013: 5th Place
2014: Champion
2015: 3rd Place
2016: 4th Place
2017: 9th Place
2018: Currently 3rd

Wins: Canada 2018, Abu Dhabi 2017
Podiums: (6)

With that in mind we could suggest anything like Guttierez might have beat Vettel at Ferrari if only they had given him the chance.

_________________
PF1 Pick 10 Competition

2013: 5th Place
2014: Champion
2015: 3rd Place
2016: 4th Place
2017: 9th Place
2018: Currently 3rd

Wins: Canada 2018, Abu Dhabi 2017
Podiums: (6)

Bottas is doing a good job and he in fact has taken advantage of Hamilton having a bad day, he beat him both times and won a race nonetheless, also he is only 4-3 down in qualifying, Rosberg would not be doing any better than this going by past performance.

_________________
PF1 Pick 10 Competition

2013: 5th Place
2014: Champion
2015: 3rd Place
2016: 4th Place
2017: 9th Place
2018: Currently 3rd

Wins: Canada 2018, Abu Dhabi 2017
Podiums: (6)

Sure you could suggest that.

I mean, as if it hasn't ever happened that a driver who we know was better than his teammate, lost out to that teammate in one of the three years they drove in the same car

_________________
Go Vandoorne - Verstappen - Vettel!

Bottas is doing a good job, his race in Russia was something that Nico rarely did - beat Hamilton in a straight up fight where neither had a reliability issue and whilst I rate Rosberg and feel he is a top 8 driver in the post 2000 era its easy to get carried away with his achievements because of the win total.

Like I said above, he won all his races in a 2 horse race scenario. If you are in a two horse race, if something happens to the other horse, you win the race. Bottas will not get that luxury and Nico wouldn't have got it this year either as he would have still have had to beat Vettel. This isn't a Nico bash post, just the pure statistics of his wins.

Rosbergs wins

2013
Silverstone - Hamilton gets puncture when in control and heading for win
Monaco

2014
Australia - Hamilton retires from pole with engine failure
Monaco - Rosberg intentionally/unintentionally blocks Hamiltons pole lap
Austria - Hamilton has the pole lap deleted for running wide in qualifying, then messes up his 2nd run and starts 9th.
Germany - Hamilton starts P20 after brake failure in qualifying
Brazil - Hamilton so much quicker he is able to attempt an over cut, just when he gets the gap up enough he spins pushing to hard on old tyres.

Up until this point, he had won Monaco 2013 on merit and also Austria and Brazil due Hamilton making a mistake so that is on merit too, but the ultimate pace wasn't enough to beat Hamilton. Silverstone, Australia and Germany all relied on Hamilton reliability issues. At this point, I personally did not rate Rosberg and found him very lucky to have challenged for a title in 2014 and most of his race wins good fortune. This did change somewhat from the middle of 2015 when he pulled some wins on pure merit and I was impressed and weary of him going into 2016, he also took the last 6 pole positions of the 2015 season.

2015
Spain
Monaco - pit wall confusion and miscalculation means Hamilton pits and loses win
Austria
Mexico
Brazil
AD

I have left them blank when they are on merit and all of these were very very good drives. All pole and win. He only got one lucky win that year and even lost a likely win in Russia too. This is why 2015, especially the second half was his best period for me. He was Hamiltons match then and looked very strong going into 2016, but the 2016 car did not suit him as much as the late season 2015 one.

2016
Australia - Hamilton messes up start from pole
Bahrain - Hamilton messes up start again from pole and then is hit by Bottas damaging his car
China - Hamilton engine failure, starts P20
Russia - Hamilton engine failure, starts P10
Europe - Hamilton crashes in qualifying, starts P10
Belgium - Hamilton engine changes, starts P20
Monza - Hamilton messes up start from pole
Singapore
Japan

20 wins
7 - were Hamilton had a mechanical failure whilst in front of Rosberg or during qualifying resulting in low grid position.
4 - Hamilton made driver errors that cost him the win.
2 - Monaco "mix ups", the pit wall miss calculation and the qualifying blocking incident

7 - Weekends he was clearly the faster and better driver or at very least he made a good start whilst Hamilton messed his up.

Also worth noting here that Nico was on course to win in Russia in 2015 on merit and retired and did retire from the lead at Silverstone in 2014 but was being caught. As far as I am aware he didn't "lose" any other race wins, except Hungary 2014 with the SC timing but then he had the good fortune that weekend of Hamilton blowing up in qualifying. So he had a potential 2 further wins if things worked out better for him.

Like I have always said, Nico had the speed to beat Hamilton hands down 3-4 times per season and then another 3-4 times due to circumstances. Fortunately for him, in 2016 he beat him the 3-4 times on merit but Hamilton had so many issues he beat him 5-6 times due to circumstances and got himself the title.

------------------

In the interest of balance, a look at the inherited and/or lucky Hamilton wins whilst alongside Rosberg

2014
Silverstone - Rosberg retires with gearbox failure from the lead. However, Hamilton was catching him at 0.5 per lap and looked good to overtake and win on merit

2015
Russia - Rosberg retires from a certain win. Hamilton inherits it.

2016
Germany - Rosberg messes up the start from pole and drops to 5th.


31 wins

23-24 - wins by simply being the better driver that weekend
5 - wins when Rosberg made an error whilst ahead. (Italy 2014, Austria 2016, Austin 2015, Austin 2014)
3 - inherited wins due to Rosberg misfortune, I can only think of two, but probably another one.

Potential 8-10 race wins lost due to reliability issues and other issues. The win totals read 31-20 and to me that flatters Nico, if you remove Nico's bad luck and leave Hamiltons that might read 29-22. Do the same the other way and it would look more like 40-11.

Nico comes out of the partnership looking a lot better on paper than he ever did on the race track. That is the problem of a dominant car. If you are the quicker driver and your team mate has a reliability issue, it doesn't change the result because he was in P2 anyway. However, if the faster guy has an issue, the slower driver who was running P2 wins the race. Exactly the same as what happened with Senna and Prost over 88-89.

I tried to present the analysis objectively and without any bias, please point me toward anything you feel doesn't add up or I missed anything and I will amend the numbers.

In relation to the post above, it is interesting when you look at drivers like Webber (2010-2013) Barrichello (2001-2004) were the car wasn't as dominate as Mercedes when the lead driver had an off day somebody else from another team won. Similarly Bottas is likely to suffer the same, he has finished ahead of Hamilton twice this year but only 1 win. Crucially he has only finished ahead of Vettel twice in 7 races too.

That would have almost certainly been 2 wins in 2014-2016 and possibly 3 wins as he would get strategy preference in Bahrain as the lead car and its very unlikely Hamilton would be able to overtake him on track. We all know under Mercedes domination, the race was over at turn 1 - 95% of the time. Bottas would actually be very close to Hamilton in a 2 horse race this year, probably 4-3 in wins in Hamiltons favour.

I think it's impossible to say with any confidence, given how temperamental the car appears to be to set up. I don't see Bottas being any worse than him, so I don't see Rosberg getting better results.