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PostPosted: Mon Jul 31, 2017 12:00 pm 
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Hi Guys

I read an article from Toto where he said the 3 main, High, Downforce "twisty" tracks which suit Ferrari are Monaco, Hungary and Singapore... Most people would agree that Spa and Monza should suit the Mercedes...

But of the final 6 circuits - Do you think either Mercedes or Ferrari will have a distinct advantage in any of them.
Both Malaysia and Japan are quite twisty as is Brazil - Would Ferrari have an advantage on these 3 at all?
Cheers in advance.



Belgian Grand Prix, Spa-Francorchamps 27 August
Italian Grand Prix, Monza 3 September
Singapore Grand Prix, Singapore 17 September

Malaysian Grand Prix, Kuala Lumpur ( 2.7601, 101.7370) 1 October
Japanese Grand Prix, Suzuka ( 35.3689, 138.9256) 8 October
United States Grand Prix, Austin ( 30.1328, -97.6411) 22 October
Mexican Grand Prix, Mexico City ( 19.4028, -99.0986) 29 October
Brazilian Grand Prix, Sao Paulo ( -23.7014, -46.6969) 12 November
Abu Dhabi Grand Prix, Yas Marina ( 24.4821, 54.3482) 26 November

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PostPosted: Mon Jul 31, 2017 12:07 pm 
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Well I think Ferrari have an advantage in all the remaining races as they have a number 2 driver that isnt allowed to overtake/race his teammate for a win when said teammate has an obvious problem.


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PostPosted: Mon Jul 31, 2017 1:38 pm 
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cmberry20 wrote:
Well I think Ferrari have an advantage in all the remaining races as they have a number 2 driver that isnt allowed to overtake/race his teammate for a win when said teammate has an obvious problem.


Might as well not bother if you are not going to answer the question!


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PostPosted: Mon Jul 31, 2017 1:41 pm 
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cmberry20 wrote:
Well I think Ferrari have an advantage in all the remaining races as they have a number 2 driver that isnt allowed to overtake/race his teammate for a win when said teammate has an obvious problem.


That can be a disadvantage. When Mercedes is strong, Hamilton can win with Vettel 3rd. When Ferrari is strong, Kimi might not be 2nd.

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PostPosted: Mon Jul 31, 2017 1:42 pm 
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Xink wrote:
Hi Guys

I read an article from Toto where he said the 3 main, High, Downforce "twisty" tracks which suit Ferrari are Monaco, Hungary and Singapore... Most people would agree that Spa and Monza should suit the Mercedes...

But of the final 6 circuits - Do you think either Mercedes or Ferrari will have a distinct advantage in any of them.
Both Malaysia and Japan are quite twisty as is Brazil - Would Ferrari have an advantage on these 3 at all?
Cheers in advance.



Belgian Grand Prix, Spa-Francorchamps 27 August
Italian Grand Prix, Monza 3 September
Singapore Grand Prix, Singapore 17 September

Malaysian Grand Prix, Kuala Lumpur ( 2.7601, 101.7370) 1 October
Japanese Grand Prix, Suzuka ( 35.3689, 138.9256) 8 October
United States Grand Prix, Austin ( 30.1328, -97.6411) 22 October
Mexican Grand Prix, Mexico City ( 19.4028, -99.0986) 29 October
Brazilian Grand Prix, Sao Paulo ( -23.7014, -46.6969) 12 November
Abu Dhabi Grand Prix, Yas Marina ( 24.4821, 54.3482) 26 November


The power tracks will go to Mercedes i.e Suzuka, Austin and Mexico, for Ferrari Sao Paulo and Yas Marina, Kuala Lumpur will be a toss up between the two teams in my opinion.


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PostPosted: Mon Jul 31, 2017 1:45 pm 
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Ferrari -
Singapore Grand Prix, Singapore 17 September

Mercedes -
Belgian Grand Prix, Spa-Francorchamps 27 August
Italian Grand Prix, Monza 3 September
Malaysian Grand Prix, Kuala Lumpur ( 2.7601, 101.7370) 1 October
Japanese Grand Prix, Suzuka ( 35.3689, 138.9256) 8 October
United States Grand Prix, Austin ( 30.1328, -97.6411) 22 October
Mexican Grand Prix, Mexico City ( 19.4028, -99.0986) 29 October
Brazilian Grand Prix, Sao Paulo ( -23.7014, -46.6969) 12 November
Abu Dhabi Grand Prix, Yas Marina ( 24.4821, 54.3482) 26 November

Mercedes might be down battling for 5th and 6th in Singapore. All the other tracks I see going Mercedes way, however there can be a suprise as Austria should have been more Mercedes. Malaysia is a lot cooler with its late season slot than pre 2016 so that moves toward Mercedes too. Brazil is also a possibility to be close and possibly Mexico if the temperatures are really high.

AD is one of Mercedes most dominant tracks, cool track temperatures and two large straights.

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PostPosted: Mon Jul 31, 2017 1:50 pm 
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Rockie wrote:
Xink wrote:
Hi Guys

I read an article from Toto where he said the 3 main, High, Downforce "twisty" tracks which suit Ferrari are Monaco, Hungary and Singapore... Most people would agree that Spa and Monza should suit the Mercedes...

But of the final 6 circuits - Do you think either Mercedes or Ferrari will have a distinct advantage in any of them.
Both Malaysia and Japan are quite twisty as is Brazil - Would Ferrari have an advantage on these 3 at all?
Cheers in advance.



Belgian Grand Prix, Spa-Francorchamps 27 August
Italian Grand Prix, Monza 3 September
Singapore Grand Prix, Singapore 17 September

Malaysian Grand Prix, Kuala Lumpur ( 2.7601, 101.7370) 1 October
Japanese Grand Prix, Suzuka ( 35.3689, 138.9256) 8 October
United States Grand Prix, Austin ( 30.1328, -97.6411) 22 October
Mexican Grand Prix, Mexico City ( 19.4028, -99.0986) 29 October
Brazilian Grand Prix, Sao Paulo ( -23.7014, -46.6969) 12 November
Abu Dhabi Grand Prix, Yas Marina ( 24.4821, 54.3482) 26 November


The power tracks will go to Mercedes i.e Suzuka, Austin and Mexico, for Ferrari Sao Paulo and Yas Marina, Kuala Lumpur will be a toss up between the two teams in my opinion.


Kuala Lumpur could suit Ferrari more if the race weekend is typically baking hot.

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PostPosted: Mon Jul 31, 2017 2:01 pm 
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lamo wrote:
AD is one of Mercedes most dominant tracks, cool track temperatures and two large straights.

I think this year Ferrari may be helped out by the slow speed corners, particularly in sector 3, really there are only 2 high speed corners on the track being 2&3 so I actually feel that it could be a Ferrari weekend. Or possibly pretty even between them with slow corners/soft tyres on Ferrari's side and low temperatures/long straights on Mercedes side.


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PostPosted: Wed Aug 02, 2017 3:36 pm 
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Ferrari: Singapore

Mercedes: everywhere else

Vettel's supreme driving will keep the WDC reasonably close, however.


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PostPosted: Sat Aug 05, 2017 6:54 pm 
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and also vettel's supreme ability to beat his teammate on a regular basis will help keep the championship close too


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PostPosted: Sat Aug 05, 2017 8:26 pm 
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Ferrari better be working really hard for potentially revised aero package for power circuits which there are plenty in second half of the year.
I think lot will depend on the weather. We know Mercedes has issues in hot climate. Spa is expected to be cold this year which would favour Mercedes heavily, but weather and bit of rain can throw everything off.

Ferrari needs to do something about high speed circuits. They are simply too vulnerable on power tracks. They are still close to Mercedes, but keeping them behind for entire race becomes a major issue for them.

They can either risk a little low downforce package on such circuits at least on FP to see how car works and have alternate package ready to be fitted to their cars if it does not work on friday.
Ferrari should walk Singapore. All other tracks will need faultless Vettel to produce something special unless Ferrari has something in bag which we dont know. But its very tough ask from any driver.

As far as cars are concerned, its Ferrari which has uphill battle from here till the end of the season. Its not that they will be very far behind, but we know mercedes has that little extra at power tracks that will be an issue for them.


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PostPosted: Sat Aug 05, 2017 8:45 pm 
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I think Ferrari is going y


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PostPosted: Sat Aug 05, 2017 8:47 pm 
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I think Ferrari is going to be strong at Abu Dhabi. A lot of slow >=90 degree corners and high track temperatures. Mercedes will make up some time on the long straight, but it might not be enough.


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PostPosted: Sun Aug 06, 2017 12:14 am 
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Malaysia could go to Ferrari as well depending on weather.

Other than that Merc should have the edge.


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PostPosted: Sun Aug 06, 2017 10:28 am 
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It may be that Mercedes have more chance of improving their tyre temperature control, than Ferrari have of closing the power gap.


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PostPosted: Sun Aug 06, 2017 10:36 am 
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Aside from Singapore maybe, Mercedes should easily win the remaining races. Even more so because Ferrari also has had a pattern the past years of lagging behind in development. I'd say Hamilton has the WDC more or less in the bag, barring unforeseen circumstances.


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PostPosted: Sun Aug 06, 2017 11:20 am 
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After seeing Hungary might be revising my predictions as it seems Ferrari are on to something, the revised floor they brought to Hungary eliminated the loss of ace they had at Silverstone after the directive and it had to be changed.


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PostPosted: Sun Aug 06, 2017 12:05 pm 
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Sharknose wrote:
Aside from Singapore maybe, Mercedes should easily win the remaining races. Even more so because Ferrari also has had a pattern the past years of lagging behind in development. I'd say Hamilton has the WDC more or less in the bag, barring unforeseen circumstances.


WDC in the bag? Hamilton has to deal with Bottas & not just Vettel.

Bottas has said he's aiming for the '17 title & not willing to live under Hamilton's shadow.

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PostPosted: Sun Aug 06, 2017 12:09 pm 
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UnlikeUday wrote:
Sharknose wrote:
Aside from Singapore maybe, Mercedes should easily win the remaining races. Even more so because Ferrari also has had a pattern the past years of lagging behind in development. I'd say Hamilton has the WDC more or less in the bag, barring unforeseen circumstances.


WDC in the bag? Hamilton has to deal with Bottas & not just Vettel.

Bottas has said he's aiming for the '17 title & not willing to live under Hamilton's shadow.

Hamilton is better than Bottas, though, so all things being equal he shouldn't have to worry about him any more than Vettel does


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PostPosted: Sun Aug 06, 2017 12:30 pm 
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Zoue wrote:
UnlikeUday wrote:
Sharknose wrote:
Aside from Singapore maybe, Mercedes should easily win the remaining races. Even more so because Ferrari also has had a pattern the past years of lagging behind in development. I'd say Hamilton has the WDC more or less in the bag, barring unforeseen circumstances.


WDC in the bag? Hamilton has to deal with Bottas & not just Vettel.

Bottas has said he's aiming for the '17 title & not willing to live under Hamilton's shadow.

Hamilton is better than Bottas, though, so all things being equal he shouldn't have to worry about him any more than Vettel does


The only slight difference being that Bottas is trying to win the title where as Kimi isn't.


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PostPosted: Sun Aug 06, 2017 2:49 pm 
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UnlikeUday wrote:
Sharknose wrote:
Aside from Singapore maybe, Mercedes should easily win the remaining races. Even more so because Ferrari also has had a pattern the past years of lagging behind in development. I'd say Hamilton has the WDC more or less in the bag, barring unforeseen circumstances.


WDC in the bag? Hamilton has to deal with Bottas & not just Vettel.

Bottas has said he's aiming for the '17 title & not willing to live under Hamilton's shadow.


He can aim for whatever he wants, but based on what we've seen in the first half of the year I don't think he'll be a consistent threat to Hamilton.


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PostPosted: Sun Aug 06, 2017 3:10 pm 
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Sharknose wrote:
UnlikeUday wrote:
Sharknose wrote:
Aside from Singapore maybe, Mercedes should easily win the remaining races. Even more so because Ferrari also has had a pattern the past years of lagging behind in development. I'd say Hamilton has the WDC more or less in the bag, barring unforeseen circumstances.


WDC in the bag? Hamilton has to deal with Bottas & not just Vettel.

Bottas has said he's aiming for the '17 title & not willing to live under Hamilton's shadow.


He can aim for whatever he wants, but based on what we've seen in the first half of the year I don't think he'll be a consistent threat to Hamilton.


:?:

That doesn't make sense given that:
- He's beaten Lewis 3 times already this season in races
- He's outqualified Lewis 5 times
- He's only 19 points behind Lewis in the standings.


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PostPosted: Sun Aug 06, 2017 4:15 pm 
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mikeyg123 wrote:
Zoue wrote:
UnlikeUday wrote:
Sharknose wrote:
Aside from Singapore maybe, Mercedes should easily win the remaining races. Even more so because Ferrari also has had a pattern the past years of lagging behind in development. I'd say Hamilton has the WDC more or less in the bag, barring unforeseen circumstances.


WDC in the bag? Hamilton has to deal with Bottas & not just Vettel.

Bottas has said he's aiming for the '17 title & not willing to live under Hamilton's shadow.

Hamilton is better than Bottas, though, so all things being equal he shouldn't have to worry about him any more than Vettel does


The only slight difference being that Bottas is trying to win the title where as Kimi isn't.

Sure, but Vettel also has to contend with Bottas on track. The way some people put it it's as though they think Bottas is only a rival to Hamilton and Vettel can simply ignore him.

Hamilton doesn't have the team's 100% focus, maybe, although I'm not convinced he's not their main man. Vettel maybe does have that advantage. However, Hamilton has a car advantage. Ferrari have clearly worked out that the only way to combat that is to put all their eggs in one basket.


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PostPosted: Sun Aug 06, 2017 5:13 pm 
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Zoue wrote:
mikeyg123 wrote:
Zoue wrote:
UnlikeUday wrote:
Sharknose wrote:
Aside from Singapore maybe, Mercedes should easily win the remaining races. Even more so because Ferrari also has had a pattern the past years of lagging behind in development. I'd say Hamilton has the WDC more or less in the bag, barring unforeseen circumstances.


WDC in the bag? Hamilton has to deal with Bottas & not just Vettel.

Bottas has said he's aiming for the '17 title & not willing to live under Hamilton's shadow.

Hamilton is better than Bottas, though, so all things being equal he shouldn't have to worry about him any more than Vettel does


The only slight difference being that Bottas is trying to win the title where as Kimi isn't.

Sure, but Vettel also has to contend with Bottas on track. The way some people put it it's as though they think Bottas is only a rival to Hamilton and Vettel can simply ignore him.

Hamilton doesn't have the team's 100% focus, maybe, although I'm not convinced he's not their main man. Vettel maybe does have that advantage. However, Hamilton has a car advantage. Ferrari have clearly worked out that the only way to combat that is to put all their eggs in one basket.


The only advantage Vettel clearly has is that his teammate will never finish higher than him. When it comes to Mercedes, they may finish in either order i.e. Bottas 1st & Hamilton 2nd or vice versa. This will at times hamper themselves if they finish on the lower steps of the podium or in lower point scoring positions. They would take points off each other.

No doubt Mercedes has a more clear advantage but it's surely a 3 horse battle. With 9 races to go, I hope the competition is close & the title gets decided in the sunset at Abu Dhabi.

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PostPosted: Sun Aug 06, 2017 6:03 pm 
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So far this season, Bottas has taken more points from Vettel than he has from Hamilton, so much for that "advantage".

I'm also not convinced that Bottas is actually a title contender. Apart from Russia, he's been clearly slower in every race.

Hamilton has a perfect #2 driver and clearly the best car at his disposal. The fact that he isn't leading the WDC right now is entirely due to him not being as good as Vettel.


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PostPosted: Sun Aug 06, 2017 6:43 pm 
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KingVoid wrote:
So far this season, Bottas has taken more points from Vettel than he has from Hamilton, so much for that "advantage".

I'm also not convinced that Bottas is actually a title contender. Apart from Russia, he's been clearly slower in every race.

Hamilton has a perfect #2 driver and clearly the best car at his disposal. The fact that he isn't leading the WDC right now is entirely due to him not being as good as Vettel.


Yep we get it, the Ferrari is a dog of a car and the only reason they are winning races is because of the superb skills of Vettel. You are making it out its like when Alonso was racing the Redbulls which took something special from Alonso to even take it to the last race.

Ferrari was actually on par till after Monaco, Vettel could have won races in China, Russia and Spain with abit more luck.
After Monaco Mercedes seemed to hold an advantage but nothing as clearly as your stating and thats why Bottas won by 0.6 in Austria.

Anything can happen in the 2nd half of the season and you stating Ferrari only have one chance of a race win till the end of the season is your way of bigging up one driver or putting down a selective driver.

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Wins: Spain 2016, Canada 2017, Malaysia 2017
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PostPosted: Sun Aug 06, 2017 8:13 pm 
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F1_Ernie wrote:
Yep we get it, the Ferrari is a dog of a car and the only reason they are winning races is because of the superb skills of Vettel. You are making it out its like when Alonso was racing the Redbulls which took something special from Alonso to even take it to the last race.

The current advantage Mercedes hold is actually very similar to Red Bull's typical advantage from 2010-2013. The gap isn't huge but it's clearly there.

Also:

1. Mercedes is better in qualifying and that gives Hamilton an advantage before the race has even started.

2. Mercedes has a better engine, which makes overtaking easier (see: Spain).

Quote:
Ferrari was actually on par till after Monaco, Vettel could have won races in China, Russia and Spain with abit more luck. After Monaco Mercedes seemed to hold an advantage but nothing as clearly as your stating and thats why Bottas won by 0.6 in Austria.

Bottas lacks race pace on the harder tyres and that's why Austria was so close in the end. Hamilton finished only 7 seconds behind him despite starting 8th and being held up by Raikkonen. Lewis would have won effortlessly by 10+ seconds if he started from pole.

Quote:
Anything can happen in the 2nd half of the season and you stating Ferrari only have one chance of a race win till the end of the season is your way of bigging up one driver or putting down a selective driver.

Unless Hamilton suffers severe reliability issues, he will win this WDC easily. Apart from Singapore I can't see Ferrari winning on merit anywhere, and Bottas is too slow in races.


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PostPosted: Sun Aug 06, 2017 8:24 pm 
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Well, let's not forget that "superiour" Vettel throw away a certain victory in Baku due to incredible dumb driving.

Ferrrari and Mercedes were very much on par this season so far. Where the development race will lead, we will see.


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PostPosted: Sun Aug 06, 2017 9:13 pm 
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The difference between Vettel and Hamilton has basically been Hamilton's problems in getting a good set-up in qualifying with these 2017 tyres on the 2017 Mercedes with Bottas generally handing it better. In the race he's fine as the tyres get warmed up ok but he is starting out of position in qualifying giving Bottas a head start in a few races.

Vettel has basically been ok from the start of the season with both the car and tyres which is why we are seeing a peak Vettel this season. Raikkonen had a problem with the tyres in the first few races but he has found a set-up to fix that which is why he was genuinely competitive with Vettel in the last few races. Of course it is too late for him now and he will be relegated to a supporting role for Vettel for the rest of the season.

So Hamilton still has his tyre qualifying problem out of the top four which means regardless of how fast the Mercedes is and how well the following tracks suit the Mercedes Vettel still has an excellent chance of the WDC if Hamilton still qualifies out of position to his racepace in coming races.

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PostPosted: Sun Aug 06, 2017 9:15 pm 
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Spain wasn't anything to do with a better engine, that was to do with different tyre compounds and the large delta between the tyre compounds. Plus Bottas and the VSC eliminated all of Vettel's advantage.

IMO Mercedes only have a clear advantage at some tracks in the races, less than Redbull had over Ferrari. Mercedes are usually faster on one compound then Ferrari the next. Ferrari normally has better tyre life and can run in the dirty.

How do we know what Vettel could do in Austria once in clear air ? Plus he pitted first out the leading cars and still caught Bottas.

I reckon its that close that one severe reliability issue will decide the championship.

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PostPosted: Sun Aug 06, 2017 9:36 pm 
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mas wrote:
The difference between Vettel and Hamilton has basically been Hamilton's problems in getting a good set-up in qualifying with these 2017 tyres on the 2017 Mercedes with Bottas generally handing it better. In the race he's fine as the tyres get warmed up ok but he is starting out of position in qualifying giving Bottas a head start in a few races.

Vettel has basically been ok from the start of the season with both the car and tyres which is why we are seeing a peak Vettel this season. Raikkonen had a problem with the tyres in the first few races but he has found a set-up to fix that which is why he was genuinely competitive with Vettel in the last few races. Of course it is too late for him now and he will be relegated to a supporting role for Vettel for the rest of the season.

So Hamilton still has his tyre qualifying problem out of the top four which means regardless of how fast the Mercedes is and how well the following tracks suit the Mercedes Vettel still has an excellent chance of the WDC if Hamilton still qualifies out of position to his racepace in coming races.

and yet Hamilton still has 6 poles to Vettel's 2. I don't think the difference between them may be put down to Hamilton's qualifying problems. On the contrary, Hamilton's better qualifying record has enabled him to stay in touch with Vettel and without it he'd be even further behind him in the points. The Merc's extra qualifying grunt has kept them in the game and should have propelled them ahead


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PostPosted: Sun Aug 06, 2017 9:37 pm 
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F1_Ernie wrote:
Spain wasn't anything to do with a better engine, that was to do with different tyre compounds and the large delta between the tyre compounds. Plus Bottas and the VSC eliminated all of Vettel's advantage.

IMO Mercedes only have a clear advantage at some tracks in the races, less than Redbull had over Ferrari. Mercedes are usually faster on one compound then Ferrari the next. Ferrari normally has better tyre life and can run in the dirty.

How do we know what Vettel could do in Austria once in clear air ? Plus he pitted first out the leading cars and still caught Bottas.

I reckon its that close that one severe reliability issue will decide the championship.

This myth again. Vettel usually has better tyre life and can run in the dirty air. Looking at the other Ferrari wouldn't have you reaching that conclusion


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PostPosted: Sun Aug 06, 2017 9:39 pm 
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KingVoid wrote:
F1_Ernie wrote:
Yep we get it, the Ferrari is a dog of a car and the only reason they are winning races is because of the superb skills of Vettel. You are making it out its like when Alonso was racing the Redbulls which took something special from Alonso to even take it to the last race.

The current advantage Mercedes hold is actually very similar to Red Bull's typical advantage from 2010-2013. The gap isn't huge but it's clearly there.

Also:

1. Mercedes is better in qualifying and that gives Hamilton an advantage before the race has even started.

2. Mercedes has a better engine, which makes overtaking easier (see: Spain).

Quote:
Ferrari was actually on par till after Monaco, Vettel could have won races in China, Russia and Spain with abit more luck. After Monaco Mercedes seemed to hold an advantage but nothing as clearly as your stating and thats why Bottas won by 0.6 in Austria.

Bottas lacks race pace on the harder tyres and that's why Austria was so close in the end. Hamilton finished only 7 seconds behind him despite starting 8th and being held up by Raikkonen. Lewis would have won effortlessly by 10+ seconds if he started from pole.

Quote:
Anything can happen in the 2nd half of the season and you stating Ferrari only have one chance of a race win till the end of the season is your way of bigging up one driver or putting down a selective driver.

Unless Hamilton suffers severe reliability issues, he will win this WDC easily. Apart from Singapore I can't see Ferrari winning on merit anywhere, and Bottas is too slow in races.

BIB: I don't think that can be stressed enough


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PostPosted: Sun Aug 06, 2017 9:59 pm 
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Zoue wrote:
F1_Ernie wrote:
Spain wasn't anything to do with a better engine, that was to do with different tyre compounds and the large delta between the tyre compounds. Plus Bottas and the VSC eliminated all of Vettel's advantage.

IMO Mercedes only have a clear advantage at some tracks in the races, less than Redbull had over Ferrari. Mercedes are usually faster on one compound then Ferrari the next. Ferrari normally has better tyre life and can run in the dirty.

How do we know what Vettel could do in Austria once in clear air ? Plus he pitted first out the leading cars and still caught Bottas.

I reckon its that close that one severe reliability issue will decide the championship.

This myth again. Vettel usually has better tyre life and can run in the dirty air. Looking at the other Ferrari wouldn't have you reaching that conclusion


The myth of using Kimi as any sort of benchmark. He should have been out the Ferrari years ago.

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PostPosted: Sun Aug 06, 2017 10:09 pm 
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F1_Ernie wrote:
Zoue wrote:
F1_Ernie wrote:
Spain wasn't anything to do with a better engine, that was to do with different tyre compounds and the large delta between the tyre compounds. Plus Bottas and the VSC eliminated all of Vettel's advantage.

IMO Mercedes only have a clear advantage at some tracks in the races, less than Redbull had over Ferrari. Mercedes are usually faster on one compound then Ferrari the next. Ferrari normally has better tyre life and can run in the dirty.

How do we know what Vettel could do in Austria once in clear air ? Plus he pitted first out the leading cars and still caught Bottas.

I reckon its that close that one severe reliability issue will decide the championship.

This myth again. Vettel usually has better tyre life and can run in the dirty air. Looking at the other Ferrari wouldn't have you reaching that conclusion


The myth of using Kimi as any sort of benchmark. He should have been out the Ferrari years ago.

Maybe, but there's still more evidence to point to it being the driver more than the car


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PostPosted: Sun Aug 06, 2017 10:21 pm 
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Zoue wrote:
F1_Ernie wrote:
Zoue wrote:
F1_Ernie wrote:
Spain wasn't anything to do with a better engine, that was to do with different tyre compounds and the large delta between the tyre compounds. Plus Bottas and the VSC eliminated all of Vettel's advantage.

IMO Mercedes only have a clear advantage at some tracks in the races, less than Redbull had over Ferrari. Mercedes are usually faster on one compound then Ferrari the next. Ferrari normally has better tyre life and can run in the dirty.

How do we know what Vettel could do in Austria once in clear air ? Plus he pitted first out the leading cars and still caught Bottas.

I reckon its that close that one severe reliability issue will decide the championship.

This myth again. Vettel usually has better tyre life and can run in the dirty air. Looking at the other Ferrari wouldn't have you reaching that conclusion


The myth of using Kimi as any sort of benchmark. He should have been out the Ferrari years ago.

Maybe, but there's still more evidence to point to it being the driver more than the car


I would say it is regarding tyre life because Hamilton was better than Bottas on his tyres in Hungary even though Bottas was in clear air.

With Kimi being in the dirty air I don't think he has the pace most of the time to keep up.

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Wins: Spain 2016, Canada 2017, Malaysia 2017
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PostPosted: Sun Aug 06, 2017 10:40 pm 
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Zoue wrote:
mas wrote:
The difference between Vettel and Hamilton has basically been Hamilton's problems in getting a good set-up in qualifying with these 2017 tyres on the 2017 Mercedes with Bottas generally handing it better. In the race he's fine as the tyres get warmed up ok but he is starting out of position in qualifying giving Bottas a head start in a few races.

Vettel has basically been ok from the start of the season with both the car and tyres which is why we are seeing a peak Vettel this season. Raikkonen had a problem with the tyres in the first few races but he has found a set-up to fix that which is why he was genuinely competitive with Vettel in the last few races. Of course it is too late for him now and he will be relegated to a supporting role for Vettel for the rest of the season.

So Hamilton still has his tyre qualifying problem out of the top four which means regardless of how fast the Mercedes is and how well the following tracks suit the Mercedes Vettel still has an excellent chance of the WDC if Hamilton still qualifies out of position to his racepace in coming races.

and yet Hamilton still has 6 poles to Vettel's 2. I don't think the difference between them may be put down to Hamilton's qualifying problems. On the contrary, Hamilton's better qualifying record has enabled him to stay in touch with Vettel and without it he'd be even further behind him in the points. The Merc's extra qualifying grunt has kept them in the game and should have propelled them ahead

The Ferrari has been easier on the tyres than the Mercedes in the first half which has helped Vettel overcome an inferior starting position to Hamilton a few times but Hamilton's qualifying problems in a few races have actually made him look more like Kimi than Kimi it's been that bad. Vettel has had better qualifying consistency in respect to his competitors along with consistently good racepace and tyrewear. If 2014 showed how bad Vettel can be when the car is not quite there for him 2017 is showing how good he can be when the car really suits him.

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PostPosted: Mon Aug 07, 2017 6:00 am 
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davidheath461 wrote:
Sharknose wrote:
UnlikeUday wrote:
Sharknose wrote:
Aside from Singapore maybe, Mercedes should easily win the remaining races. Even more so because Ferrari also has had a pattern the past years of lagging behind in development. I'd say Hamilton has the WDC more or less in the bag, barring unforeseen circumstances.


WDC in the bag? Hamilton has to deal with Bottas & not just Vettel.

Bottas has said he's aiming for the '17 title & not willing to live under Hamilton's shadow.


He can aim for whatever he wants, but based on what we've seen in the first half of the year I don't think he'll be a consistent threat to Hamilton.


:?:

That doesn't make sense given that:
- He's beaten Lewis 3 times already this season in races
- He's outqualified Lewis 5 times
- He's only 19 points behind Lewis in the standings.


You do realise that all those stats still favour Hamilton? Not to mention while doing so Bottas is an equal if not greater threat to Vettel as well.

If we see this trend continue, Hamilton will still be ahead of him most of the races and if Bottas keeps taking points off Vettel which he has on 5 occasions already, it is only going to help Mercedes.


See, in the end, if Mercedes does hold a car advantage which they do at most of the upcoming track unless Ferrari has miraculously found extra 2-3 tenth over Summer break, Bottas will be very close to Hamilton. I dont see him messing up as badly regularly as he did when he was 7 tenth slower than Hamilton. That means, Vettel also has to fight off Bottas regularly while battling even better driver in Hamilton while both of them are potentially in faster Mercedes.

It is very clear who has tougher work cut out for themselves going forward, and its largely going to be Ferrari as I expect Mercedes to further improve over the season. So Ferrari not only have to match that, but try to negate the advantage Mercedes holds at power tracks. That is going to be very difficult.

Mercedes drivers have been lucky so far that Vettel has had run of bad luck at at-least 4 races till now. Can only imagine how much the gap would have been if not for those safety car bad luck at the start and tyre bursts.


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PostPosted: Mon Aug 07, 2017 6:18 am 
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F1_Ernie wrote:
Spain wasn't anything to do with a better engine, that was to do with different tyre compounds and the large delta between the tyre compounds. Plus Bottas and the VSC eliminated all of Vettel's advantage.

Spain was definitely about the engine. Vettel had a greater pace advantage over Bottas and much newer tyres, yet he couldn't even get fully alongside and had to make the overtake stick in the braking zone. Hamilton was fully ahead before the braking zone when passing Vettel, and he was 0.6 seconds behind at the start of the straight.

It's definitely easier to overtake in a Mercedes.

Quote:
IMO Mercedes only have a clear advantage at some tracks in the races, less than Redbull had over Ferrari. Mercedes are usually faster on one compound then Ferrari the next. Ferrari normally has better tyre life and can run in the dirty.

Most of these so called advantages of Ferrari have disappeared since Monaco. Mercedes was faster than Ferrari on both compounds in Canada, Baku, Austria (Hamilton), and Silverstone.

Quote:
How do we know what Vettel could do in Austria once in clear air ? Plus he pitted first out the leading cars and still caught Bottas.

Did you even watch the race? Vettel spend the entire race bar the last few laps in clean air, because Bottas was clearly much quicker on the US tyres.

Quote:
I reckon its that close that one severe reliability issue will decide the championship.

Nah, I'll stick my neck out here and say that barring extreme reliably, Hamilton will win the WDC before the final race of the season. You can come back to this comment in November.


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PostPosted: Mon Aug 07, 2017 8:35 am 
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We disagree and thats fair enough.

I hope you're right about Hamilton winning the championship, both Merc drivers need to start finishing ahead of Vettel though.

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Wins: Spain 2016, Canada 2017, Malaysia 2017
Podiums: 2nd Germany 2016, 3rd Mexico 2016


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