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PostPosted: Tue Oct 10, 2017 1:34 pm 
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I did not realise Toto said that, it means they would have let Hamilton through in the first stint then which would have meant the win more than likely.

If we were to go to that level of scrutiny then Vettel probably lost himself a few points with his start in Canada. He collided with Verstappen who started 5th when he started 2nd. A better start and he likely finishes 2nd or at least 3rd. I also think Hamilton should have qualified ahead of Kimi in Hungary if he was on it, which actually would have won him the race given Vettels issue it would have been an easy overcut/undercut.

Then you also have Vettels start in Russia, although the Mercedes was the better car that weekend (imo) he had the opportunity to win and P1 does usually come under threat from P2 in Russia, he should/would have been safe from P3 if he made a decent start. He still nearly went into T1 alongside, just a slightly better start and he wins Russia.

Ironic that Vettels season is marred by a few bad starts, reliability and bad performances in Baku and Singapore. Just like Lewis in 2016. In fact, most of the key moments in each season occurred at the same races too - Singapore, Malaysia, Japan and Baku.

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PostPosted: Tue Oct 10, 2017 2:11 pm 
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Zoue wrote:
lamo wrote:
mds wrote:
Option or Prime wrote:
Time for a thread on whether it was Vettel's or Ferrari's fault they lost their opportunity to win the WDC


Would that really be in doubt? 13 points in Baku, and then even if you count Singapore you're getting 38 points max that Vettel could have done better. But if you do that, then add 13 (Russia) and 6 (Monaco) for Hamilton. End result, 4 races to go and Vettel still 40 behind.


I think the comparison being made was -

Vettel: Singapore 25, Baku 13, Silverstone 6 = 44
Car: Malaysia 13, Japan 18, Silverstone 6 = 37

Hamilton: Russia 13, Monaco 9, Hungary 3 = 25
Car: Baku 15, Austria 6 = 21

This is points lost due to driver and car. Vettel has 6 for both each in Silverstone due to the car being capable of 2nd and him not getting that in part due to tyre and under performance. He would have been 4th without the tyre issue. Hamilton is put as losing 6 points in Austia, assuming he would have got 2nd, as its debatable if he had won or been 3rd without the gearbox penalty, so went for in between the two.

Hamilton should also have won in Bahrain if he hadn't allowed himself to get mugged at the start. And it's arguable that he made an error in Australia, since afterwards Toto said his tyres were fine and he didn't need to come in when he did. So in all that would be an extra 14 points for him and 14 points lost for Vettel

No that's not a sensible way of looking at this. None of this breakdown is sensible actually. You have Hamilton on here for Russia (a weekend in which, although he seemed to struggle for pace, he did not make any mistakes and had to nurse an injured car throughout most of the actual race) and yet you ignore Vettel's first lap collision from Canada? You want to include races like Australia and Bahrain for Hamilton (races where he finished 2nd) but leave out Russia for Vettel (where he lost the lead at the start - exactly what you are claiming Hamilton should be dinged for). Your whole way of looking at this is totally imbalanced.


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PostPosted: Tue Oct 10, 2017 2:28 pm 
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sandman1347 wrote:
Zoue wrote:
lamo wrote:
mds wrote:
Option or Prime wrote:
Time for a thread on whether it was Vettel's or Ferrari's fault they lost their opportunity to win the WDC


Would that really be in doubt? 13 points in Baku, and then even if you count Singapore you're getting 38 points max that Vettel could have done better. But if you do that, then add 13 (Russia) and 6 (Monaco) for Hamilton. End result, 4 races to go and Vettel still 40 behind.


I think the comparison being made was -

Vettel: Singapore 25, Baku 13, Silverstone 6 = 44
Car: Malaysia 13, Japan 18, Silverstone 6 = 37

Hamilton: Russia 13, Monaco 9, Hungary 3 = 25
Car: Baku 15, Austria 6 = 21

This is points lost due to driver and car. Vettel has 6 for both each in Silverstone due to the car being capable of 2nd and him not getting that in part due to tyre and under performance. He would have been 4th without the tyre issue. Hamilton is put as losing 6 points in Austia, assuming he would have got 2nd, as its debatable if he had won or been 3rd without the gearbox penalty, so went for in between the two.

Hamilton should also have won in Bahrain if he hadn't allowed himself to get mugged at the start. And it's arguable that he made an error in Australia, since afterwards Toto said his tyres were fine and he didn't need to come in when he did. So in all that would be an extra 14 points for him and 14 points lost for Vettel

No that's not a sensible way of looking at this. None of this breakdown is sensible actually. You have Hamilton on here for Russia (a weekend in which, although he seemed to struggle for pace, he did not make any mistakes and had to nurse an injured car throughout most of the actual race) and yet you ignore Vettel's first lap collision from Canada? You want to include races like Australia and Bahrain for Hamilton (races where he finished 2nd) but leave out Russia for Vettel (where he lost the lead at the start - exactly what you are claiming Hamilton should be dinged for). Your whole way of looking at this is totally imbalanced.

I seem to recall there were posts before the start of the race in Russia predicting that pole wasn't the best place to start because of the slipstream, and sure enough...


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PostPosted: Tue Oct 10, 2017 2:41 pm 
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I’m not sure why Bahrain can’t be classed as Vettel getting a better start on the clean side of the grid. It wasn’t like Hamilton’s start was dreadful, last year when he had awful starts Rosberg was getting the plaudits for an overtake move.

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PostPosted: Tue Oct 10, 2017 3:01 pm 
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Zoue wrote:
sandman1347 wrote:
Zoue wrote:
lamo wrote:
mds wrote:

Would that really be in doubt? 13 points in Baku, and then even if you count Singapore you're getting 38 points max that Vettel could have done better. But if you do that, then add 13 (Russia) and 6 (Monaco) for Hamilton. End result, 4 races to go and Vettel still 40 behind.


I think the comparison being made was -

Vettel: Singapore 25, Baku 13, Silverstone 6 = 44
Car: Malaysia 13, Japan 18, Silverstone 6 = 37

Hamilton: Russia 13, Monaco 9, Hungary 3 = 25
Car: Baku 15, Austria 6 = 21

This is points lost due to driver and car. Vettel has 6 for both each in Silverstone due to the car being capable of 2nd and him not getting that in part due to tyre and under performance. He would have been 4th without the tyre issue. Hamilton is put as losing 6 points in Austia, assuming he would have got 2nd, as its debatable if he had won or been 3rd without the gearbox penalty, so went for in between the two.

Hamilton should also have won in Bahrain if he hadn't allowed himself to get mugged at the start. And it's arguable that he made an error in Australia, since afterwards Toto said his tyres were fine and he didn't need to come in when he did. So in all that would be an extra 14 points for him and 14 points lost for Vettel

No that's not a sensible way of looking at this. None of this breakdown is sensible actually. You have Hamilton on here for Russia (a weekend in which, although he seemed to struggle for pace, he did not make any mistakes and had to nurse an injured car throughout most of the actual race) and yet you ignore Vettel's first lap collision from Canada? You want to include races like Australia and Bahrain for Hamilton (races where he finished 2nd) but leave out Russia for Vettel (where he lost the lead at the start - exactly what you are claiming Hamilton should be dinged for). Your whole way of looking at this is totally imbalanced.

I seem to recall there were posts before the start of the race in Russia predicting that pole wasn't the best place to start because of the slipstream, and sure enough...

Yes, make an excuse for Vettel being beaten off the line but when Hamilton loses a position from the dirty side of the grid, refer to it as getting "mugged". You really don't see how blatantly imbalanced your analysis is?


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PostPosted: Wed Oct 11, 2017 12:44 am 
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I wouldn't have believed Hamilton could have lost the 17 point lead he had in 2007 over the course of two races, when a win was worth 10 points. Is it 59 points now that he leads by with 25 for a win and with four races to go? Can he win by just following Vettel home in every race yet?


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PostPosted: Wed Oct 11, 2017 12:49 am 
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flyboy10 wrote:
I wouldn't have believed Hamilton could have lost the 17 point lead he had in 2007 over the course of two races, when a win was worth 10 points. Is it 59 points now that he leads by with 25 for a win and with four races to go? Can he win by just following Vettel home in every race yet?

Not only can he win by following Vettel home, he can actually win by not even finishing on the podium in any of them. If Vettel wins all the remaining races and Lewis is fourth in all of them, he would still win the title by 7 points.

Without a Hamilton DNF (or two) there is no chance of Vettel winning the title.

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PostPosted: Wed Oct 11, 2017 3:13 am 
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Considering it is the baseball playoff season here in the States, with lots of talk about "Magic Numbers," am I correct that Hamilton's is currently 42? In other words, if Hamilton can score 42 points in the next 4 races he wins the driver's title regardless of what anyone else might do. Obviously, if Hamilton finishes ahead of Vettel or if Vettel fails to win any of the last 4 races, that number will go down. Sobering, and puts Ferrari's recent troubles into perspective.


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PostPosted: Wed Oct 11, 2017 9:10 am 
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flyboy10 wrote:
I wouldn't have believed Hamilton could have lost the 17 point lead he had in 2007 over the course of two races, when a win was worth 10 points. Is it 59 points now that he leads by with 25 for a win and with four races to go? Can he win by just following Vettel home in every race yet?

Yep. 42 points required assuming he wins no more races.

If Hamilton DNFs in the next 2 races and finishes 5th in Brazil, he can still take the title with a win in Abu Dhabi (assuming Vettel wins the next 3 races).


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PostPosted: Wed Oct 11, 2017 12:29 pm 
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GingerFurball wrote:
flyboy10 wrote:
I wouldn't have believed Hamilton could have lost the 17 point lead he had in 2007 over the course of two races, when a win was worth 10 points. Is it 59 points now that he leads by with 25 for a win and with four races to go? Can he win by just following Vettel home in every race yet?

Yep. 42 points required assuming he wins no more races.

If Hamilton DNFs in the next 2 races and finishes 5th in Brazil, he can still take the title with a win in Abu Dhabi (assuming Vettel wins the next 3 races).


Those are pretty damning odds against Ferrari.

I want Mercedes to win, but wish that it was taken down to the wire rather than this fade away by Ferrari. It's an odd way to end the season.


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PostPosted: Wed Oct 11, 2017 1:01 pm 
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flyboy10 wrote:
I wouldn't have believed Hamilton could have lost the 17 point lead he had in 2007 over the course of two races, when a win was worth 10 points. Is it 59 points now that he leads by with 25 for a win and with four races to go? Can he win by just following Vettel home in every race yet?

He can but then he's not in control of the race, he has the car to stick it on pole, grab the title don't leave it in the hands of others.

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PostPosted: Wed Oct 11, 2017 3:55 pm 
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Herb Tarlik wrote:
GingerFurball wrote:
flyboy10 wrote:
I wouldn't have believed Hamilton could have lost the 17 point lead he had in 2007 over the course of two races, when a win was worth 10 points. Is it 59 points now that he leads by with 25 for a win and with four races to go? Can he win by just following Vettel home in every race yet?

Yep. 42 points required assuming he wins no more races.

If Hamilton DNFs in the next 2 races and finishes 5th in Brazil, he can still take the title with a win in Abu Dhabi (assuming Vettel wins the next 3 races).


Those are pretty damning odds against Ferrari.

I want Mercedes to win, but wish that it was taken down to the wire rather than this fade away by Ferrari. It's an odd way to end the season.

Another scenario: Vettel's last 4 races match the best run of 4 races he's had this season - 2 wins, 2 second places. 86 points for Vettel.

Lewis at the same time matches his worst run of form - Monaco to Austria (7th, 1st, 5th and 4th) - except we'll give him worse luck and sub out his win for a nice big engine explosion. 28 points to Hamilton.

Hamilton still wins the title by a point.


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PostPosted: Wed Oct 11, 2017 3:59 pm 
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As Zoue stated earlier, there's a rather rotund lady out there somewhere, clearing her throat...

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PostPosted: Wed Oct 11, 2017 4:16 pm 
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tootsie323 wrote:
As Zoue stated earlier, there's a rather rotund lady out there somewhere, clearing her throat...

She's sang already but is so far away the sound hasn't caught us yet.

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PostPosted: Wed Oct 11, 2017 4:20 pm 
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Realistically Vettel needs two no scores for Hamilton. Sounds unlikely but is it any more unlikely than Vettel failing to score twice in three races?


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PostPosted: Wed Oct 11, 2017 7:42 pm 
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mikeyg123 wrote:
Realistically Vettel needs two no scores for Hamilton. Sounds unlikely but is it any more unlikely than Vettel failing to score twice in three races?

Any possibility this thread is going round in circles?

Option or Prime wrote:
Realistically Its over, Ferrari need two wipeouts in 4 races and still need need to win without any reliability problems of their own. Given Mercedes reliabilirty thats unlikely. There is a point where mathematical possibilities get overtaken by statistical probability. We are past there now.


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PostPosted: Wed Oct 11, 2017 7:49 pm 
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mikeyg123 wrote:
Realistically Vettel needs two no scores for Hamilton. Sounds unlikely but is it any more unlikely than Vettel failing to score twice in three races?


Now calculate the likeliness of two very unlikely things happening together :)

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PostPosted: Wed Oct 11, 2017 8:24 pm 
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Yep - realistically Vettel needs alot of things to go his way now.

Those lost points from Baku/Montreal/Singapore/Silverstone were very costly.


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PostPosted: Wed Oct 11, 2017 8:58 pm 
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mikeyg123 wrote:
Realistically Vettel needs two no scores for Hamilton. Sounds unlikely but is it any more unlikely than Vettel failing to score twice in three races?

He needs more than that. He also needs to beat Lewis in both the races where his engine doesn't blow up for that scenario to work. Otherwise it's -50 points for the two DNFs, then equal points if they trade wins. Hamilton still wins the title that way.

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PostPosted: Wed Oct 11, 2017 11:07 pm 
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The 42 points people are quoting isn’t just points which Lewis needs to gain - it includes points which Vettel can drop . For example in the next race If Lewis takes 25 points and Vettel takes 18, The 7 points which Vettel drops would be deducted from the 42 ...42-25-7 leaving only 10 points required.
In this case a 5th place for Lewis in Mexico or any of the other 3 races would finish it .

The gap between Lewis and victory (42) is bigger than the gap to Seb and Lewis(59) which is why things are so difficult to turn round. As already stated Lewis can whittle that target down by stopping Seb from winning races where as Seb has to win these points outright

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PostPosted: Thu Oct 12, 2017 12:11 am 
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Xink wrote:
The 42 points people are quoting isn’t just points which Lewis needs to gain - it includes points which Vettel can drop . For example in the next race If Lewis takes 25 points and Vettel takes 18, The 7 points which Vettel drops would be deducted from the 42 ...42-25-7 leaving only 10 points required.
In this case a 5th place for Lewis in Mexico or any of the other 3 races would finish it .

The gap between Lewis and victory (42) is bigger than the gap to Seb and Lewis(59) which is why things are so difficult to turn round. As already stated Lewis can whittle that target down by stopping Seb from winning races where as Seb has to win these points outright

Exactly - I posted this is another thread, but it shows how tricky it is for Vettel to stop Hamilton winning with two races to go - for each Vettel result, it shows the minimum Hamilton result to secure the WDC.

Here are the permutations for Austin and Mexico for Hamilton being WDC in those races. I've only bother with Vettel podium finishes / 1 victory for Mexico as there are MANY MANY permutations that make Hamilton WDC in that race, and if he doesn't get a double podium or a victory it's virtually guaranteed to be Hamilton's

Code:
Hamilton Champion in Austin if:

Austin:
VET 6th    HAM 1st
VET 9th    HAM 2nd   


Hamilton Chamption in Mexico if:

Austin / Mexico (either order)
VET 1st/2nd     HAM 5th/1st
VET 1st/3rd     HAM 8th/1st or 3rd/2nd
VET 2nd/2nd     HAM 3rd/4th or 1st/9th
VET 2nd/3rd     HAM 1st/DNS or 2nd/7th or 3rd/5th or 4th/4th
VET 3rd/3rd     HAM 1st/DNS or 2nd/8th or 4th/5th

VET 1st/4th     HAM 1st/8th  or 2nd/5th or 3rd/3rd
VET 1st/5th     HAM 1st/10th or 2nd/6th or 3rd/4th
VET 1st/6th     HAM 1st/DNS  or 2nd/7th or 3rd/5th or 4th/4th
VET 1st/7th     HAM 1st/DNS  or 2nd/8th or 3rd/6th or 4th/5th
VET 1st/8th     HAM 1st/DNS  or 2nd/9th or 3rd/7th or 4th/6th or 5th/5th
VET 1st/9th     HAM 2nd/DNS  or 3rd/8th or 4th/7th or 5th/6th
VET 1st/11th    HAM 2nd/DNS  or 3rd/10th or 4th/8th or 5th/7th or 6th/6th


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