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PostPosted: Mon Oct 23, 2017 11:49 am 
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With Lewis only needing 9 points now (possibly less if Vettel fails to win all races)
Do you think either Mercedes or Lewis will change their approach to the next race?

For example running the engine in a lower power mode ?
On track I guess it’s a bit more difficult as if an overtake is there - Lewis will probably go for it as opposed to trailing behind a slower car for 20 or 30 laps .

Could there be a scenario where he’s running 2nd or 3rd on worn tyres and being chased down that they would do an extra pit stop to bring him back out in 4th or 5th.

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PostPosted: Mon Oct 23, 2017 11:52 am 
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Probably not.

Last year the WCC was wound up several races before, but they still wanted a 1-2 in Abu Dhabi.

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PostPosted: Mon Oct 23, 2017 12:21 pm 
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Going into Austin I still felt Hamilton needed 1 more win or to finish 1 race in front of Vettel just to rule out bad luck retirements, in Mexico that's no longer needed just bring the car home.

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PostPosted: Mon Oct 23, 2017 12:36 pm 
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In any endeavor, if you change your game plan you risk losing the plot. At this moment Mercedes have won the Manufacturer's Constructor's Championship, and have one driver on the cusp of winning a WDC. So they have obviously found the sweet spot between reliability and pushing to hard, and are sitting pretty.

All that remains for Mercedes to sweep the competition is for Bottas to secure second in the WDC chase. If Mercedes give Vettel enough room, he will secure that. So drop the pretenses, and go for it, put the pressure on Vettel and turn the cars loose. Right now Mercedes have everything to gain and nothing to lose by going to the maximum.

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PostPosted: Mon Oct 23, 2017 12:50 pm 
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If anything, if Ferrari are not as quick as Mercedes in all 3 races, Hamilton could help Bottas get 2nd in the drivers championship. If Ferrari or Red bull clearly are not as quick as I said, I do think this is what Mercedes would want. A 1 - 2 finish for their drivers.


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PostPosted: Mon Oct 23, 2017 12:53 pm 
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Hamilton's interviews yesterday after the race showed he really enjoyed the wheel to wheel racing he had with Vettel. He even said he wished Vettel undercut to have worked so he could have more racing with him. I remember in the beginning of the season how he was kind of jubilant having Ferrari and Vettel as close competitors for the season.

I won't be surprised if Lewis drops pole in the remaining races so that he can have some wheel to wheel.


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PostPosted: Mon Oct 23, 2017 12:57 pm 
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cmax wrote:
Hamilton's interviews yesterday after the race showed he really enjoyed the wheel to wheel racing he had with Vettel. He even said he wished Vettel undercut to have worked so he could have more racing with him. I remember in the beginning of the season how he was kind of jubilant having Ferrari and Vettel as close competitors for the season.

I won't be surprised if Lewis drops pole in the remaining races so that he can have some wheel to wheel.

I think you only do that after the title is secured, also why would he want to give away pole positions, he has already stated he wants to maximise his career stats.

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PostPosted: Mon Oct 23, 2017 1:31 pm 
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pokerman wrote:
cmax wrote:
Hamilton's interviews yesterday after the race showed he really enjoyed the wheel to wheel racing he had with Vettel. He even said he wished Vettel undercut to have worked so he could have more racing with him. I remember in the beginning of the season how he was kind of jubilant having Ferrari and Vettel as close competitors for the season.

I won't be surprised if Lewis drops pole in the remaining races so that he can have some wheel to wheel.

I think you only do that after the title is secured, also why would he want to give away pole positions, he has already stated he wants to maximise his career stats.

Exactly, if he wants the challenge he can just get pole but then let Vettel lead into turn 1.

However, he's now set his sights on passing 91 wins (which given he has averaged 10 wins a season for the last 4 seasons, means that at that rate he will surpass it in 2020) so I don't see him giving up race wins either.

As he only needs a 5th place finish in one of the remaining 3 races he can afford to take risks now. In fact, Vettel can only afford one non win if Hamilton has three DNFs. I fully expect Hamilton to go for it in all remaining races. His eyes are now on collecting as many victories as he can.


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PostPosted: Mon Oct 23, 2017 1:48 pm 
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If Ham finds himself in a position where a win is possible but not guaranteed in the second half of the race and he's behind, they will do the sensible thing and shut it down and secure both Championships. They will then go all out for the final two races provided they accomplish that mission in Mexico. It's OK to let one go. It's just one.


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PostPosted: Mon Oct 23, 2017 1:54 pm 
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Invade wrote:
If Ham finds himself in a position where a win is possible but not guaranteed in the second half of the race and he's behind, they will do the sensible thing and shut it down and secure both Championships. They will then go all out for the final two races provided they accomplish that mission in Mexico. It's OK to let one go. It's just one.

Yep

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PostPosted: Mon Oct 23, 2017 2:41 pm 
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2 dnfs + 1 loss to a Vettel win can still swing the title, so I think they'll play it safe for 1 race at least.


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PostPosted: Mon Oct 23, 2017 3:17 pm 
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Mercedes is there to win. They want constructors, in the bag, drivers, in his hand, and number of wins in a season number of wins in total.
the instruction will be -Proceed as you were guys

They are the most successful team in the history of F1 (not counting Braun) and want to keep it that way in the books


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PostPosted: Mon Oct 23, 2017 3:41 pm 
Hamilton will race Mexico to win the race all out, if he DNFs in Mexico and Vettel wins then I suspect he will play it safe the next race. But the safest way to win a race is from the front anyway.

The field spread is huge too, he needs a 5th place. We have 6 cars in a League of there own. Take Bottas out of that equation and that is a very easy 5th place. The Force India/Renault is 1.5-2.0 seconds a lap slower.

Vettel needs 1-1-2 at very minimum and that is Hamilton DNFing all three races. I would put Vettel championship chance at around 1-2% at most.


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PostPosted: Mon Oct 23, 2017 3:52 pm 
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Judging from the comments from Lewis and knowing how Merc operate they are not going to take their foot off the gas. They are going to maximize everything. Go for the poles, go for 1-2s, go for the 3 wins. This doesn't mean that they are going to win all three, because as we've seen their car does not work as well at certain tracks, but they are going to go for it. Rest assured.


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PostPosted: Mon Oct 23, 2017 4:13 pm 
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It's not in Hamilton's demeanor to drop his guard. s far as I know him, he would love to win all the 3 races.

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PostPosted: Mon Oct 23, 2017 4:24 pm 
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ReservoirDog wrote:
2 dnfs + 1 loss to a Vettel win can still swing the title, so I think they'll play it safe for 1 race at least.

This. I have 2007-ish hopes.

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PostPosted: Mon Oct 23, 2017 4:51 pm 
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Mexico should suit Ferrari but other 2 tracks Mercedes will be strong. I think they can take the penalty to be safe lol. There is a good chance Hamilton will take Pole in at least 2 races and win one of them at least.

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PostPosted: Mon Oct 23, 2017 5:08 pm 
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What is Hamilton's engine components situation? Is a penalty possible for the remaining races?


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PostPosted: Mon Oct 23, 2017 5:34 pm 
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Driver Team ICE TC MGU-H MGU-K ES CE
Lewis Hamilton Mercedes 4 4 4 4 3 3
Valtteri Bottas Mercedes 4 4 4 4 3 3
Daniel Ricciardo Red Bull TAG Heuer 5 5 6 3 3 3
Max Verstappen Red Bull TAG Heuer 5 5 5 3 3 3
Sebastian Vettel Ferrari 5 5 5 4 4 4
Kimi Raikkonen Ferrari 4 4 4 4 4 4

It’s possible - most of the parts have been on 4 since Spa

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PostPosted: Mon Oct 23, 2017 7:11 pm 
Hamilton is in a good place engine mileage and engine stress wise. He was still using Engine 1 during free practise in the USA (7 months on from Australia). Engine's 3 and 4 will have lower mileage requirements than the first 2 engines. Since engines 3 and 4 have been introduced they are yet to be run on the Friday. Engine 2 was also used for the Singapore GP from which point it has been relegated to practise only now I believe.

Engines 3 & 4 will need to do 9 x FP3 + qualifying + race and maybe 1-3 Fridays.
Engines 1 & 2 have already done 11 x FP3 + qualifying + race and end up doing about 17-18 Fridays.

Engine 1 for Hamilton has been a work horse. It did the entirety of the first 6 weekends and has since done 4-5 FP1's and FP2's. That is close to being on target to meeting the FIA's 3 engines per season rule.


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PostPosted: Mon Oct 23, 2017 10:42 pm 
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ReservoirDog wrote:
2 dnfs + 1 loss to a Vettel win can still swing the title, so I think they'll play it safe for 1 race at least.

Hamilton only needs to finish 5th in one of the remaining races. If Vettel wins all three remaining races then Hamilton could DNF the next two races and then follow both Ferraris and both Red Bulls home in Abu Dhabi and he would be WDC.

Vettel can only be champion now with three wins or two wins and a second. If Vettel finishes third in the next race then Hamilton is WDC with three DNFs.


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PostPosted: Mon Oct 23, 2017 11:42 pm 
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UnlikeUday wrote:
It's not in Hamilton's demeanor to drop his guard. s far as I know him, he would love to win all the 3 races.

To be fair he did drop his guard a little in 2015 after everything was all sewned up. But he is a different driver this year. He seems to be enjoying the racing a whole lot more for whatever reason and you just know he will be on it all the way. I think it is the main reason for his form too.


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PostPosted: Tue Oct 24, 2017 4:31 am 
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Anything could happen, but the best way to guard against that is to continue racing for the wins.

As already said the field spread is so large that he really just needs to finish the race at a normal pace to win the world championship.

For the last 3 races in a row he has finished over a minute ahead of 6th place.


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PostPosted: Tue Oct 24, 2017 5:43 am 
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Alienturnedhuman wrote:
ReservoirDog wrote:
2 dnfs + 1 loss to a Vettel win can still swing the title, so I think they'll play it safe for 1 race at least.

Hamilton only needs to finish 5th in one of the remaining races. If Vettel wins all three remaining races then Hamilton could DNF the next two races and then follow both Ferraris and both Red Bulls home in Abu Dhabi and he would be WDC.

Vettel can only be champion now with three wins or two wins and a second. If Vettel finishes third in the next race then Hamilton is WDC with three DNFs.


I wonder when, if ever, Hamilton has gone 3 races without scraping together the points for an equivalent 5th place? Maybe 2009?


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PostPosted: Tue Oct 24, 2017 6:24 am 
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Lojik wrote:
I wonder when, if ever, Hamilton has gone 3 races without scraping together the points for an equivalent 5th place? Maybe 2009?

It's actually happened as recently as 2012, between Europe and Germany (DNF - 8 - DNF).

Other than that, there was indeed a longer stretch in 2009 as you thought: between Spain and Germany, a period of 5 races, he didn't finish higher than 9th and scored no points.

Those two are the only times in his career he's come up with fewer than 40% of a race win in points over three consecutive races. The 2012 scenario is far more likely to happen, but the odds are very much against either.

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PostPosted: Tue Oct 24, 2017 6:38 am 
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lamo wrote:
Hamilton is in a good place engine mileage and engine stress wise. He was still using Engine 1 during free practise in the USA (7 months on from Australia). Engine's 3 and 4 will have lower mileage requirements than the first 2 engines. Since engines 3 and 4 have been introduced they are yet to be run on the Friday. Engine 2 was also used for the Singapore GP from which point it has been relegated to practise only now I believe.

Engines 3 & 4 will need to do 9 x FP3 + qualifying + race and maybe 1-3 Fridays.
Engines 1 & 2 have already done 11 x FP3 + qualifying + race and end up doing about 17-18 Fridays.

Engine 1 for Hamilton has been a work horse. It did the entirety of the first 6 weekends and has since done 4-5 FP1's and FP2's. That is close to being on target to meeting the FIA's 3 engines per season rule.


Lamo, where is this information available?


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PostPosted: Tue Oct 24, 2017 8:52 am 
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UnlikeUday wrote:
It's not in Hamilton's demeanor to drop his guard. s far as I know him, he would love to win all the 3 races.


i agree


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PostPosted: Tue Oct 24, 2017 3:35 pm 
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Hamilton hasn't broken down in a race all season.

He has a teammate to move away and red bulls facing engine penalties

It will be a dry race in Abu Dhabi at least.


Hamilton is an absolute shoo in for the title. They change engine settings throughout the race its not like its one preset. Probability of vettel winning tile is considerably less than 1%


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PostPosted: Tue Oct 24, 2017 4:09 pm 
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With no pressure on him now, he is more likely to win than usual. He does not have to take 50/50's or long shots, but Ferrari do, and are more likely to drop the ball because of it. This goes even to the extent of them not being 100% for an engines reliability. There is no stress to risk it as even starting from the back he is probably going to be in the top 6 come the end.


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PostPosted: Tue Oct 24, 2017 4:40 pm 
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There's no need to change anything really. He has won 5 of the last 6 races and is in top form. No need to start tip-toeing around. That's actually when things tend to go bad.


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PostPosted: Thu Oct 26, 2017 2:28 pm 
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kleefton wrote:
UnlikeUday wrote:
It's not in Hamilton's demeanor to drop his guard. s far as I know him, he would love to win all the 3 races.

To be fair he did drop his guard a little in 2015 after everything was all sewned up. But he is a different driver this year. He seems to be enjoying the racing a whole lot more for whatever reason and you just know he will be on it all the way. I think it is the main reason for his form too.

Yep and his guard was still dropped for the first part of the 2016 season, so confident he was in beating Rosberg.

I think losing the 2016 title was a wake up call for him, he seems more focused than I can remember, he even volunteered to test next years Pirelli tyres and we all know he tends to avoid tests like the plague.

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PostPosted: Thu Oct 26, 2017 2:30 pm 
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sandman1347 wrote:
There's no need to change anything really. He has won 5 of the last 6 races and is in top form. No need to start tip-toeing around. That's actually when things tend to go bad.

Yep go for pole and then the win if he makes a good start.

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PostPosted: Thu Oct 26, 2017 6:55 pm 
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Mercedes should, and will, keep doing exactly what they've been doing in how the operate during the race weekend. No need to change a thing.


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PostPosted: Fri Oct 27, 2017 3:08 am 
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Hamilton will keep pushing until he clinches the title, then he will back off. He does enjoy the fight though. Unfortunately, no one can really challenge him unless Ferrari have magically improved their second rate car from Austin to Mexico.


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PostPosted: Fri Oct 27, 2017 11:15 am 
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Appreciate that he wants to win the race - but what I will say is that it would be foolish to try a risky overtake or fight too hard if he's about to be overtaken himself.
He has to remember what happened in 2007 in China with that senseless fight with Kimi on track before the Gravel Trap incident a few laps later.
His maturity & ability to not fight against Max in Malaysia - should ensure that such a thing wont happen again

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PostPosted: Fri Oct 27, 2017 11:31 am 
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Bentrovato wrote:
Hamilton will keep pushing until he clinches the title, then he will back off. He does enjoy the fight though. Unfortunately, no one can really challenge him unless Ferrari have magically improved their second rate car from Austin to Mexico.

I dont think he will back off.

He is targeting Schumacher's win record.


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