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2017 Brazilian Grand Prix Free Practice & Qualifying Thread
http://forum.planet-f1.com/viewtopic.php?f=3&t=14646
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Author:  kleefton [ Sat Nov 11, 2017 5:09 pm ]
Post subject:  Re: 2017 Brazilian Grand Prix Free Practice & Qualifying Thr

Wow, Congrats Valteri.
Vettel blew it though.

Author:  Invade [ Sat Nov 11, 2017 5:10 pm ]
Post subject:  Re: 2017 Brazilian Grand Prix Free Practice & Qualifying Thr

Super job from Bottas in a very even qualifying battle. Clutch pole position from the man!

Also, I don't think Vettel really blew it although his last lap wasn't great. It seems to me that Ferrari ran their most powerful engine mode for a lot longer this weekend including at the end of Q2.

Author:  MasterRacer [ Sat Nov 11, 2017 5:10 pm ]
Post subject:  Re: 2017 Brazilian Grand Prix Free Practice & Qualifying Thr

Damn that sucks for Seb but he'll still win from there

Author:  lamo [ Sat Nov 11, 2017 5:10 pm ]
Post subject:  Re: 2017 Brazilian Grand Prix Free Practice & Qualifying Thr

Great lap from Bottas, Vettel blew it at turn 2 by the look of it.

Author:  UnlikeUday [ Sat Nov 11, 2017 5:11 pm ]
Post subject:  Re: 2017 Brazilian Grand Prix Free Practice & Qualifying Thr

Ocon in a good spot. He'll move up to 10th because of Ricciardo's penalty with tyre of his choice, which should be Softs.

Author:  Zoue [ Sat Nov 11, 2017 5:11 pm ]
Post subject:  Re: 2017 Brazilian Grand Prix Free Practice & Qualifying Thr

Looks like Vettel let that one get away. He was down 0.059s on his previous S1 in his final lap, but lost pole by 0.038s. If he'd nailed S1 he would have had it.

Author:  BMWSauber84 [ Sat Nov 11, 2017 5:12 pm ]
Post subject:  Re: 2017 Brazilian Grand Prix Free Practice & Qualifying Thr

With Ferrari's recent starts, it's far from a disaster for Vettel. Bottas needed that, and needs tomorrow.

Author:  lamo [ Sat Nov 11, 2017 5:15 pm ]
Post subject:  Re: 2017 Brazilian Grand Prix Free Practice & Qualifying Thr

Its set up for a good race. Vettel will surely have a much better race pace than Bottas who generally struggles

Author:  kleefton [ Sat Nov 11, 2017 5:16 pm ]
Post subject:  Re: 2017 Brazilian Grand Prix Free Practice & Qualifying Thr

Notables:
Great job by Bottas, he drove superbly, but Vettel left time on the table for sure during his second flyer.
Verstappen beat Ricc by 4 tenths. The slaughtering continues.
Hulkenberg ahead of Sainz. Hulk is still the boss at Renault, at least for now.
Perez P6, completely destroyed his teammate here.
Alonso P7 somehow, but that car didn't really belong there.

Author:  sandman1347 [ Sat Nov 11, 2017 5:17 pm ]
Post subject:  Re: 2017 Brazilian Grand Prix Free Practice & Qualifying Thr

What's Vegas paying on a Hamilton win tomorrow?

Author:  Invade [ Sat Nov 11, 2017 5:18 pm ]
Post subject:  Re: 2017 Brazilian Grand Prix Free Practice & Qualifying Thr

sandman1347 wrote:
What's Vegas paying on a Hamilton win tomorrow?


Bottas to do the most elaborate backing up in the history of F1 with random heavy rain midway through the race and Hamilton finishing P0 (worth 50 points).

Author:  Invade [ Sat Nov 11, 2017 5:22 pm ]
Post subject:  Re: 2017 Brazilian Grand Prix Free Practice & Qualifying Thr

Vettel "chickened out" on the brakes early on in his second flyer but other than that didn't leave much on the table and his banker was also good. I put this down to an excellent Bottas lap more than anything.

Author:  F1_Ernie [ Sat Nov 11, 2017 5:24 pm ]
Post subject:  Re: 2017 Brazilian Grand Prix Free Practice & Qualifying Thr

lamo wrote:
Its set up for a good race. Vettel will surely have a much better race pace than Bottas who generally struggles


Does it matter with a 1 stop race?

Author:  lamo [ Sat Nov 11, 2017 5:24 pm ]
Post subject:  Re: 2017 Brazilian Grand Prix Free Practice & Qualifying Thr

sandman1347 wrote:
What's Vegas paying on a Hamilton win tomorrow?


If it was wet and had a few SC's he would likely be one of the favourites. But it is going to be dry I believe.

Author:  sandman1347 [ Sat Nov 11, 2017 5:25 pm ]
Post subject:  Re: 2017 Brazilian Grand Prix Free Practice & Qualifying Thr

edit

Author:  sandman1347 [ Sat Nov 11, 2017 5:26 pm ]
Post subject:  Re: 2017 Brazilian Grand Prix Free Practice & Qualifying Thr

lamo wrote:
sandman1347 wrote:
What's Vegas paying on a Hamilton win tomorrow?


If it was wet and had a few SC's he would likely be one of the favourites. But it is going to be dry I believe.

Ah, that was my next question.

Author:  UnlikeUday [ Sat Nov 11, 2017 5:29 pm ]
Post subject:  Re: 2017 Brazilian Grand Prix Free Practice & Qualifying Thr

Even though Bottas has got pole, I don't think he's a match for Vettel. Bottas & Raikkonen could have a good scrap.

Author:  UnlikeUday [ Sat Nov 11, 2017 5:30 pm ]
Post subject:  Re: 2017 Brazilian Grand Prix Free Practice & Qualifying Thr

lamo wrote:
sandman1347 wrote:
What's Vegas paying on a Hamilton win tomorrow?


If it was wet and had a few SC's he would likely be one of the favourites. But it is going to be dry I believe.


Nothing is sure. It was supposed to rain during qualifying. Anything can happen in Sao Paulo.

Author:  TheGiantHogweed [ Sat Nov 11, 2017 5:50 pm ]
Post subject:  Re: 2017 Brazilian Grand Prix Free Practice & Qualifying Thr

This is just stats, but Bottas's average qualifying position is exactly 3rd when I work out the mean. While Hamilton's is now 3.4. It does show that even though Bottas has been down very often, he hasn't been any worse than 6th. While Hamilton has let himself down in this area in Monaco and here. I still think that in a way, Bottas is reasonably consistent in qualifying. I know the average qualifying position doesn't really matter. It is just interesting that it is now in Bottas's favour.

Author:  Invade [ Sat Nov 11, 2017 6:04 pm ]
Post subject:  Re: 2017 Brazilian Grand Prix Free Practice & Qualifying Thr

TheGiantHogweed wrote:
This is just stats, but Bottas's average qualifying position is exactly 3rd when I work out the mean. While Hamilton's is now 3.4. It does show that even though Bottas has been down very often, he hasn't been any worse than 6th. While Hamilton has let himself down in this area in Monaco and here. I still think that in a way, Bottas is reasonably consistent in qualifying. I know the average qualifying position doesn't really matter. It is just interesting that it is now in Bottas's favour.


How does the median look? Bottas still at 3? Guessing so over Kimi.

edit:

PS, I realise it doesn't quite work like that but you know what I mean.

Author:  TheGiantHogweed [ Sat Nov 11, 2017 6:27 pm ]
Post subject:  Re: 2017 Brazilian Grand Prix Free Practice & Qualifying Thr

Invade wrote:
TheGiantHogweed wrote:
This is just stats, but Bottas's average qualifying position is exactly 3rd when I work out the mean. While Hamilton's is now 3.4. It does show that even though Bottas has been down very often, he hasn't been any worse than 6th. While Hamilton has let himself down in this area in Monaco and here. I still think that in a way, Bottas is reasonably consistent in qualifying. I know the average qualifying position doesn't really matter. It is just interesting that it is now in Bottas's favour.


How does the median look? Bottas still at 3? Guessing so over Kimi.

edit:

PS, I realise it doesn't quite work like that but you know what I mean.



Just for the sake of it, I've worked out Kimi's average qualifying position too. 3.7
This is all pointless and is only interesting if you like numbers :lol:

Author:  Herb Tarlik [ Sat Nov 11, 2017 6:59 pm ]
Post subject:  Re: 2017 Brazilian Grand Prix Free Practice & Qualifying Thr

MasterRacer wrote:
That's why Mercedes would love to swap Hamilton with Max.

Terrible error from Hamilton actually embarrassing for the sport.


:lol: :lol: :lol: :lol: :lol: :lol: :lol: :lol:

Author:  MasterRacer [ Sat Nov 11, 2017 7:01 pm ]
Post subject:  Re: 2017 Brazilian Grand Prix Free Practice & Qualifying Thr

UnlikeUday wrote:
Even though Bottas has got pole, I don't think he's a match for Vettel. Bottas & Raikkonen could have a good scrap.


Yeah my money is on Seb winning this easily. Val should be good enough to see off Kimi though.

Author:  anthdci [ Sat Nov 11, 2017 7:21 pm ]
Post subject:  Re: 2017 Brazilian Grand Prix Free Practice & Qualifying Thr

can/ should lewis take a full new PU since he's at the back anyway?

Author:  lamo [ Sat Nov 11, 2017 7:32 pm ]
Post subject:  Re: 2017 Brazilian Grand Prix Free Practice & Qualifying Thr

TheGiantHogweed wrote:
This is just stats, but Bottas's average qualifying position is exactly 3rd when I work out the mean. While Hamilton's is now 3.4. It does show that even though Bottas has been down very often, he hasn't been any worse than 6th. While Hamilton has let himself down in this area in Monaco and here. I still think that in a way, Bottas is reasonably consistent in qualifying. I know the average qualifying position doesn't really matter. It is just interesting that it is now in Bottas's favour.


...and that is how you completely miss use statistics folks. Hamiltons average starting position was 2.4 before today. Now it is 3.3 and suddenly that makes Bottas consistent because his is lower?

Actually watching the sessions, Bottas has had about 8 awful qualifying sessions this year (in the 0.450-0.800 range behind) and Hamilton has had 3. The car should never start lower than 3rd/4th with the exception of Singapore. Far too many no shows from Bottas to be considered consistent over 1 lap.

Author:  lamo [ Sat Nov 11, 2017 7:34 pm ]
Post subject:  Re: 2017 Brazilian Grand Prix Free Practice & Qualifying Thr

anthdci wrote:
can/ should lewis take a full new PU since he's at the back anyway?


I think it might be a pit lane start if you take it after Q3 or did they abolish that rule? That was the reason Hamilton started in the pits in Hungary 2014

Author:  lamo [ Sat Nov 11, 2017 7:35 pm ]
Post subject:  Re: 2017 Brazilian Grand Prix Free Practice & Qualifying Thr

MasterRacer wrote:
UnlikeUday wrote:
Even though Bottas has got pole, I don't think he's a match for Vettel. Bottas & Raikkonen could have a good scrap.


Yeah my money is on Seb winning this easily. Val should be good enough to see off Kimi though.


If he survives turn 1, my money is on Vettel too

Author:  TheGiantHogweed [ Sat Nov 11, 2017 7:41 pm ]
Post subject:  Re: 2017 Brazilian Grand Prix Free Practice & Qualifying Thr

lamo wrote:
TheGiantHogweed wrote:
This is just stats, but Bottas's average qualifying position is exactly 3rd when I work out the mean. While Hamilton's is now 3.4. It does show that even though Bottas has been down very often, he hasn't been any worse than 6th. While Hamilton has let himself down in this area in Monaco and here. I still think that in a way, Bottas is reasonably consistent in qualifying. I know the average qualifying position doesn't really matter. It is just interesting that it is now in Bottas's favour.


...and that is how you completely miss use statistics folks. Hamiltons average starting position was 2.4 before today. Now it is 3.3 and suddenly that makes Bottas consistent because his is lower?

Actually watching the sessions, Bottas has had about 8 awful qualifying sessions this year (in the 0.450-0.800 range behind) and Hamilton has had 3. The car should never start lower than 3rd/4th with the exception of Singapore. Far too many no shows from Bottas to be considered consistent over 1 lap.


Well yes and it is just because of this. Hamilton has had two qualifying sessions which were far lower than anything Bottas has ever done this year. In this sence, even if it seems a bit silly, Bottas has been more consistent. As his highs and lows are nothing like as far apart as Hamilton's.

And I think it is unreasonable of you to say 8 of Bottas's qualifying sessions have been "awful". In that case, I'd say Hamilton's runs were very good, but not outstanding. Bottas has been poor IMO just a few times, but not awful. And considering many say Hamilton has been simply outstanding, surely that means Bottas isn't doing quite as bad as it seems. He's not been great, but on the whole considering he's up against Hamilton and other teams are far stronger this year, I can't say he's been that bad in qualifying. I only brought it up because it is now one area where Bottas has got a better average position due to not making huge mistakes. I don't see how this is much more strange than when you created a thread speculating how Rosberg might have done relative to Bottas.

Author:  BMWSauber84 [ Sat Nov 11, 2017 7:45 pm ]
Post subject:  Re: 2017 Brazilian Grand Prix Free Practice & Qualifying Thr

TheGiantHogweed wrote:
lamo wrote:
TheGiantHogweed wrote:
This is just stats, but Bottas's average qualifying position is exactly 3rd when I work out the mean. While Hamilton's is now 3.4. It does show that even though Bottas has been down very often, he hasn't been any worse than 6th. While Hamilton has let himself down in this area in Monaco and here. I still think that in a way, Bottas is reasonably consistent in qualifying. I know the average qualifying position doesn't really matter. It is just interesting that it is now in Bottas's favour.


...and that is how you completely miss use statistics folks. Hamiltons average starting position was 2.4 before today. Now it is 3.3 and suddenly that makes Bottas consistent because his is lower?

Actually watching the sessions, Bottas has had about 8 awful qualifying sessions this year (in the 0.450-0.800 range behind) and Hamilton has had 3. The car should never start lower than 3rd/4th with the exception of Singapore. Far too many no shows from Bottas to be considered consistent over 1 lap.


Well yes and it is just because of this. Hamilton has had two qualifying sessions which were far lower than anything Bottas has ever done this year. In this sence, even if it seems a bit sily, Bottas has been more consistent. As his highs and lows are nothing like as far apart as Hamilton's.


It's a pretty pointless stat that rewards being consistently not quite good enough as opposed to being quick nearly every session.

Author:  TheGiantHogweed [ Sat Nov 11, 2017 7:53 pm ]
Post subject:  Re: 2017 Brazilian Grand Prix Free Practice & Qualifying Thr

BMWSauber84 wrote:
TheGiantHogweed wrote:
lamo wrote:
TheGiantHogweed wrote:
This is just stats, but Bottas's average qualifying position is exactly 3rd when I work out the mean. While Hamilton's is now 3.4. It does show that even though Bottas has been down very often, he hasn't been any worse than 6th. While Hamilton has let himself down in this area in Monaco and here. I still think that in a way, Bottas is reasonably consistent in qualifying. I know the average qualifying position doesn't really matter. It is just interesting that it is now in Bottas's favour.


...and that is how you completely miss use statistics folks. Hamiltons average starting position was 2.4 before today. Now it is 3.3 and suddenly that makes Bottas consistent because his is lower?

Actually watching the sessions, Bottas has had about 8 awful qualifying sessions this year (in the 0.450-0.800 range behind) and Hamilton has had 3. The car should never start lower than 3rd/4th with the exception of Singapore. Far too many no shows from Bottas to be considered consistent over 1 lap.


Well yes and it is just because of this. Hamilton has had two qualifying sessions which were far lower than anything Bottas has ever done this year. In this sence, even if it seems a bit sily, Bottas has been more consistent. As his highs and lows are nothing like as far apart as Hamilton's.


It's a pretty pointless stat that rewards being consistently not quite good enough as opposed to being quick nearly every session.

Did you not read my own words further up before you posted? I did say it is a bit pointless in terms of the end result, but it is still interesting as it shows Bottas has made less mistakes over qualifying that results in this stat being in his favour.

Author:  Mort Canard [ Sat Nov 11, 2017 7:54 pm ]
Post subject:  Re: 2017 Brazilian Grand Prix Free Practice & Qualifying Thr

lamo wrote:
MasterRacer wrote:
UnlikeUday wrote:
Even though Bottas has got pole, I don't think he's a match for Vettel. Bottas & Raikkonen could have a good scrap.


Yeah my money is on Seb winning this easily. Val should be good enough to see off Kimi though.


If he survives turn 1, my money is on Vettel too


Question is whether Seb will be challenging Valtteri through the first few turns or if Max will be hassling Seb in those turns?

Author:  lamo [ Sat Nov 11, 2017 8:07 pm ]
Post subject:  Re: 2017 Brazilian Grand Prix Free Practice & Qualifying Thr

TheGiantHogweed wrote:
lamo wrote:
TheGiantHogweed wrote:
This is just stats, but Bottas's average qualifying position is exactly 3rd when I work out the mean. While Hamilton's is now 3.4. It does show that even though Bottas has been down very often, he hasn't been any worse than 6th. While Hamilton has let himself down in this area in Monaco and here. I still think that in a way, Bottas is reasonably consistent in qualifying. I know the average qualifying position doesn't really matter. It is just interesting that it is now in Bottas's favour.


...and that is how you completely miss use statistics folks. Hamiltons average starting position was 2.4 before today. Now it is 3.3 and suddenly that makes Bottas consistent because his is lower?

Actually watching the sessions, Bottas has had about 8 awful qualifying sessions this year (in the 0.450-0.800 range behind) and Hamilton has had 3. The car should never start lower than 3rd/4th with the exception of Singapore. Far too many no shows from Bottas to be considered consistent over 1 lap.


Well yes and it is just because of this. Hamilton has had two qualifying sessions which were far lower than anything Bottas has ever done this year. In this sence, even if it seems a bit silly, Bottas has been more consistent. As his highs and lows are nothing like as far apart as Hamilton's.

And I think it is unreasonable of you to say 8 of Bottas's qualifying sessions have been "awful". In that case, I'd say Hamilton's runs were very good, but not outstanding. Bottas has been poor IMO just a few times, but not awful. And considering many say Hamilton has been simply outstanding, surely that means Bottas isn't doing quite as bad as it seems. He's not been great, but on the whole considering he's up against Hamilton and other teams are far stronger this year, I can't say he's been that bad in qualifying. I only brought it up because it is now one area where Bottas has got a better average position due to not making huge mistakes. I don't see how this is much more strange than when you created a thread speculating how Rosberg might have done relative to Bottas.


Average starting position does not equal consistency.

I believe Raikkonen's average starting position is ahead of Vettels too?

My mistake, it is 7 races out of 18 he has been 0.450+ behind. 39% of the time. I think its a bit rich calling somebody consistent who is nearly half a second slower than their team mate 39% of the time. Unless you mean consistently inconsistent.

Canada +0.70
Baku +0.45
GB +0.75
Spa +0.55
Monza +2.2 seconds
Malaysia +0.70
USA +0.45

Which of these wasn't awful?

In the 2014 Mercedes he probably starts all of those races still P2 behind Hamilton. In the 2008 Mclaren, Hamilton won the title in - those kind of gaps would put him starting P8-P12 with Hamilton on pole. Starting position is a function of the competitiveness of the car and the 2017 Mercedes is a great car capable of the front row nearly every weekend.

Author:  BMWSauber84 [ Sat Nov 11, 2017 8:11 pm ]
Post subject:  Re: 2017 Brazilian Grand Prix Free Practice & Qualifying Thr

TheGiantHogweed wrote:
BMWSauber84 wrote:
TheGiantHogweed wrote:
lamo wrote:
TheGiantHogweed wrote:
This is just stats, but Bottas's average qualifying position is exactly 3rd when I work out the mean. While Hamilton's is now 3.4. It does show that even though Bottas has been down very often, he hasn't been any worse than 6th. While Hamilton has let himself down in this area in Monaco and here. I still think that in a way, Bottas is reasonably consistent in qualifying. I know the average qualifying position doesn't really matter. It is just interesting that it is now in Bottas's favour.


...and that is how you completely miss use statistics folks. Hamiltons average starting position was 2.4 before today. Now it is 3.3 and suddenly that makes Bottas consistent because his is lower?

Actually watching the sessions, Bottas has had about 8 awful qualifying sessions this year (in the 0.450-0.800 range behind) and Hamilton has had 3. The car should never start lower than 3rd/4th with the exception of Singapore. Far too many no shows from Bottas to be considered consistent over 1 lap.


Well yes and it is just because of this. Hamilton has had two qualifying sessions which were far lower than anything Bottas has ever done this year. In this sence, even if it seems a bit sily, Bottas has been more consistent. As his highs and lows are nothing like as far apart as Hamilton's.


It's a pretty pointless stat that rewards being consistently not quite good enough as opposed to being quick nearly every session.

Did you not read my own words further up before you posted? I did say it is a bit pointless in terms of the end result, but it is still interesting as it shows Bottas has made less mistakes over qualifying that results in this stat being in his favour.


I gave it too much respect by calliing it a bit pointless. It's actually one of those totally irrelevent stats like how Tarso Marques finished above Alonso in the 2001 championship when they were both Minardi drivers.

Author:  TheGiantHogweed [ Sat Nov 11, 2017 8:33 pm ]
Post subject:  Re: 2017 Brazilian Grand Prix Free Practice & Qualifying Thr

lamo wrote:
TheGiantHogweed wrote:
lamo wrote:
TheGiantHogweed wrote:
This is just stats, but Bottas's average qualifying position is exactly 3rd when I work out the mean. While Hamilton's is now 3.4. It does show that even though Bottas has been down very often, he hasn't been any worse than 6th. While Hamilton has let himself down in this area in Monaco and here. I still think that in a way, Bottas is reasonably consistent in qualifying. I know the average qualifying position doesn't really matter. It is just interesting that it is now in Bottas's favour.


...and that is how you completely miss use statistics folks. Hamiltons average starting position was 2.4 before today. Now it is 3.3 and suddenly that makes Bottas consistent because his is lower?

Actually watching the sessions, Bottas has had about 8 awful qualifying sessions this year (in the 0.450-0.800 range behind) and Hamilton has had 3. The car should never start lower than 3rd/4th with the exception of Singapore. Far too many no shows from Bottas to be considered consistent over 1 lap.


Well yes and it is just because of this. Hamilton has had two qualifying sessions which were far lower than anything Bottas has ever done this year. In this sence, even if it seems a bit silly, Bottas has been more consistent. As his highs and lows are nothing like as far apart as Hamilton's.

And I think it is unreasonable of you to say 8 of Bottas's qualifying sessions have been "awful". In that case, I'd say Hamilton's runs were very good, but not outstanding. Bottas has been poor IMO just a few times, but not awful. And considering many say Hamilton has been simply outstanding, surely that means Bottas isn't doing quite as bad as it seems. He's not been great, but on the whole considering he's up against Hamilton and other teams are far stronger this year, I can't say he's been that bad in qualifying. I only brought it up because it is now one area where Bottas has got a better average position due to not making huge mistakes. I don't see how this is much more strange than when you created a thread speculating how Rosberg might have done relative to Bottas.


Average starting position does not equal consistency.

I believe Raikkonen's average starting position is ahead of Vettels too?

My mistake, it is 7 races out of 18 he has been 0.450+ behind. 39% of the time. I think its a bit rich calling somebody consistent who is nearly half a second slower than their team mate 39% of the time. Unless you mean consistently inconsistent.

Canada +0.70
Baku +0.45
GB +0.75
Spa +0.55
Monza +2.2 seconds
Malaysia +0.70
USA +0.45

Which of these wasn't awful?

In the 2014 Mercedes he probably starts all of those races still P2 behind Hamilton. In the 2008 Mclaren, Hamilton won the title in - those kind of gaps would put him starting P8-P12 with Hamilton on pole. Starting position is a function of the competitiveness of the car and the 2017 Mercedes is a great car capable of the front row nearly every weekend.


What I mean by consistent relative to Hamilton is what I stated in bold. And I still disagree with your definition of awful. If he's up against Hamilton who constantly gets called outstanding in this 2nd half of the season, I can't call many of Bottas's runs awful. Monza is about the only one I could use that word for as he clearly made a big mistake. Hamilton was clearly extremely good in all of them, and Bottas just wasn't close. I think I'd say that he just didn't do a good job. But the word awful just seems a bit much to me. Maybe we just think about the meaning of these words differently. What word would you use for Hamilton's run today? I wouldn't say awful for that as we didn't really see much. But as he didn't even set a lap time and Bottas managed pole, what word would you use that is far worse than awful? As what Hamilton did today was significantly worse than Bottas's worst run of the year.

Author:  Paolo_Lasardi [ Sat Nov 11, 2017 8:41 pm ]
Post subject:  Re: 2017 Brazilian Grand Prix Free Practice & Qualifying Thr

MasterRacer wrote:
lamo wrote:
MasterRacer wrote:
That's why Mercedes would love to swap Hamilton with Max.

Terrible error from Hamilton actually embarrassing for the sport.


I can't believe Vettel lost to him either


Seb did very well to push him so close the Mercedes is still the best car. I think Seb would be champion if he didn't have that ridiculous run of bad luck.


You mean his driving errors that cost him more?

Author:  pokerman [ Sat Nov 11, 2017 8:48 pm ]
Post subject:  Re: 2017 Brazilian Grand Prix Free Practice & Qualifying Thr

mikeyg123 wrote:
To those that don't think Vandoorne has had a good season, what would a good season in this car look like for a rookie Vandoorne?

The gap to Alonso is quite big though.

Author:  pokerman [ Sat Nov 11, 2017 8:55 pm ]
Post subject:  Re: 2017 Brazilian Grand Prix Free Practice & Qualifying Thr

BMWSauber84 wrote:
TheGiantHogweed wrote:
lamo wrote:
TheGiantHogweed wrote:
This is just stats, but Bottas's average qualifying position is exactly 3rd when I work out the mean. While Hamilton's is now 3.4. It does show that even though Bottas has been down very often, he hasn't been any worse than 6th. While Hamilton has let himself down in this area in Monaco and here. I still think that in a way, Bottas is reasonably consistent in qualifying. I know the average qualifying position doesn't really matter. It is just interesting that it is now in Bottas's favour.


...and that is how you completely miss use statistics folks. Hamiltons average starting position was 2.4 before today. Now it is 3.3 and suddenly that makes Bottas consistent because his is lower?

Actually watching the sessions, Bottas has had about 8 awful qualifying sessions this year (in the 0.450-0.800 range behind) and Hamilton has had 3. The car should never start lower than 3rd/4th with the exception of Singapore. Far too many no shows from Bottas to be considered consistent over 1 lap.


Well yes and it is just because of this. Hamilton has had two qualifying sessions which were far lower than anything Bottas has ever done this year. In this sence, even if it seems a bit sily, Bottas has been more consistent. As his highs and lows are nothing like as far apart as Hamilton's.


It's a pretty pointless stat that rewards being consistently not quite good enough as opposed to being quick nearly every session.

Yeah it's amazing how such things can be manipulated. :lol:

Author:  lamo [ Sat Nov 11, 2017 9:30 pm ]
Post subject:  Re: 2017 Brazilian Grand Prix Free Practice & Qualifying Thr

TheGiantHogweed wrote:
lamo wrote:
TheGiantHogweed wrote:
lamo wrote:
TheGiantHogweed wrote:
This is just stats, but Bottas's average qualifying position is exactly 3rd when I work out the mean. While Hamilton's is now 3.4. It does show that even though Bottas has been down very often, he hasn't been any worse than 6th. While Hamilton has let himself down in this area in Monaco and here. I still think that in a way, Bottas is reasonably consistent in qualifying. I know the average qualifying position doesn't really matter. It is just interesting that it is now in Bottas's favour.


...and that is how you completely miss use statistics folks. Hamiltons average starting position was 2.4 before today. Now it is 3.3 and suddenly that makes Bottas consistent because his is lower?

Actually watching the sessions, Bottas has had about 8 awful qualifying sessions this year (in the 0.450-0.800 range behind) and Hamilton has had 3. The car should never start lower than 3rd/4th with the exception of Singapore. Far too many no shows from Bottas to be considered consistent over 1 lap.


Well yes and it is just because of this. Hamilton has had two qualifying sessions which were far lower than anything Bottas has ever done this year. In this sence, even if it seems a bit silly, Bottas has been more consistent. As his highs and lows are nothing like as far apart as Hamilton's.

And I think it is unreasonable of you to say 8 of Bottas's qualifying sessions have been "awful". In that case, I'd say Hamilton's runs were very good, but not outstanding. Bottas has been poor IMO just a few times, but not awful. And considering many say Hamilton has been simply outstanding, surely that means Bottas isn't doing quite as bad as it seems. He's not been great, but on the whole considering he's up against Hamilton and other teams are far stronger this year, I can't say he's been that bad in qualifying. I only brought it up because it is now one area where Bottas has got a better average position due to not making huge mistakes. I don't see how this is much more strange than when you created a thread speculating how Rosberg might have done relative to Bottas.


Average starting position does not equal consistency.

I believe Raikkonen's average starting position is ahead of Vettels too?

My mistake, it is 7 races out of 18 he has been 0.450+ behind. 39% of the time. I think its a bit rich calling somebody consistent who is nearly half a second slower than their team mate 39% of the time. Unless you mean consistently inconsistent.

Canada +0.70
Baku +0.45
GB +0.75
Spa +0.55
Monza +2.2 seconds
Malaysia +0.70
USA +0.45

Which of these wasn't awful?

In the 2014 Mercedes he probably starts all of those races still P2 behind Hamilton. In the 2008 Mclaren, Hamilton won the title in - those kind of gaps would put him starting P8-P12 with Hamilton on pole. Starting position is a function of the competitiveness of the car and the 2017 Mercedes is a great car capable of the front row nearly every weekend.


What I mean by consistent relative to Hamilton is what I stated in bold. And I still disagree with your definition of awful. If he's up against Hamilton who constantly gets called outstanding in this 2nd half of the season, I can't call many of Bottas's runs awful. Monza is about the only one I could use that word for as he clearly made a big mistake. Hamilton was clearly extremely good in all of them, and Bottas just wasn't close. I think I'd say that he just didn't do a good job. But the word awful just seems a bit much to me. Maybe we just think about the meaning of these words differently. What word would you use for Hamilton's run today? I wouldn't say awful for that as we didn't really see much. But as he didn't even set a lap time and Bottas managed pole, what word would you use that is far worse than awful? As what Hamilton did today was significantly worse than Bottas's worst run of the year.


Relative to Hamilton? The times are relative to Hamilton. The times don't lie, but the positions can give misleading information due to the competitiveness of the car.

Put Lance Stroll in the 2014 Mercedes and he would start basically every single race P2.. would that be consistent? What if the gaps to his team mate ranged from 0.4-1.0 over the season. In fact, if Stroll had been in Rosbergs car in 2014 it would mean Hamilton broke down twice in qualifying and started two races P20 thus Stroll could have lost 18-0 in qualifying and yet had a better qualifying average than Hamilton which shows how meaningless average starting position can be. Also by this measure, it would make probably Ericson the most consistent driver of the year in terms of qualifying position.

I think Vettel is 15-4 up against Kimi year and is also behind him on average starting position.

Hamiltons was poor today but he just made a mistake, that happens. Russia was much worse IMO than today. Because he got thrashed by Bottas, straight up and was terrible slow. Today he likely would have been on pole but just made a mistake.

I think we will have to disagree. In the last 30 years, it is almost unheard for a driver in the WDC/WCC to be in the 0.5+ range behind his team mate regularly. 0.6-0.7 is Jolyon Palmer esque. Bottas has been 0.7+ off Hamilton in 22% of the races this year. I don't remember any driver in a top car, in the last 30 years having so many huge gaps to their team in one season. If those aren't awful, then how slow does he have to be? 1 second+?

Author:  mas [ Sun Nov 12, 2017 1:20 pm ]
Post subject:  Re: 2017 Brazilian Grand Prix Free Practice & Qualifying Thr

Bottas has had more trouble than Hamilton adapting to this year's temperamental Mercedes and in more races although Hamilton has had a couple of bad ones too at least in qualifying. Reminds me of Kimi's year against Alonso, their natural difference was accentuated by a bad car. Hamilton is second only to Alonso in being able to drive a bad car fast, in fact they are in a different league to everyone else and have been all their careers in this respect.

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