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PostPosted: Sat Mar 10, 2018 12:54 pm 
Mercedes-Benz wrote:
funkymonkey wrote:
There are big issues with the current data we have from race simulations which was used to calculate and speculate all those corrected times.
Mercedes did entire run on mediums and last stint was on tyres which were 4 laps younger than redbull and 8 laps younger than Ferrari. It is this stint where they put in those 1:19s and everyone is using that data to predict absolute dominance of Mercedes in long runs.
I am not so sure. Redbull and Ferrari both look strong if you take into account fuel loads and older tyres with Ferrari having slight edge on Redbull. May not be absolutely on par with Mercedes, but too close for comfort and something that can can be found in 2 weeks.

We will know real picture only at Australia or rather at Bahrain. But Australia will still give us the general idea. I dont think any of the top 3 teams went all out. I think we will see times at least 7-8 tenth quicker than this when we go racing if not more. We will be in low 1:16s or even on the verge of breaking 1:15 barrier here when we come back for the GP. I can bet 10 bucks on this.


Interesting info regarding the tyres 8). I do think letting go James Allison was a mistake by Ferrari. It will be ironic that his input will lead to another title for Mercedes. RBR is ahead of Ferrari :?
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=PNPHyeqNqIo


:thumbup: And RBR have better drivers.


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PostPosted: Sat Mar 10, 2018 1:36 pm 
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GingerFurball wrote:
Herb wrote:
Caserole of Nonsense wrote:
mds wrote:
Caserole of Nonsense wrote:
yes it would make a lot of sense to a vettel fan like you.


Please lay off the personal remarks. Not constructive in any way, shape or form. My questions were meant to provide you with a number of reasons of why Vettel is in the car for the whole day today and not Kimi. Some might be seen as unfair to the guy, others offer a logical explanation. But you choose to ignore that, just call me a fanboy, and assume there's no valid and fair reason to not put Kimi.

Very classy :thumbup:

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but a kimi fan wouldnt be happy would they. last year vettel did 591 laps to kimis 365 and i remember all the problems were when kimi was driving. this year its even worse as kimi missed a whole day last week due to weather. you might as well send him home and let vettel do it all if you only care about him.


Last year Vettel did a lot more than Kimi, correct. The two prior years it was pretty balanced. But that we will probably also ignore, won't we?
And they don't exactly schedule when to have problems, now do they? And again - suppose Kimi is simply still feeling ill then it's not exactly going to help putting him in the car today.

You don't even know the reason, you don't know Kimi's thoughts on it, but there you are, shouting in anger at how pathetic Ferrari are.

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wonder what merc are doing. oh yeah they give both drivers a fair crack. surely ferrari realised last year that vettel can be a liability and unless its an absolute rocket ship this year he aint gonna beat hamilton. but they could get constructors if they bothered about both drivers.


History has shown us that Hamilton can be liability just as well during a season, and that Vettel can be fast and scoring on a very high level just as well.

Care to look at the lap count in testing last year? Did Mercedes give them a "fair crack" as well last year? 468 vs 628 laps, quite a difference as well.

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i bet kimi comes back tomorrow and does about 60 laps all day


Let's just see.


are you a vettel fan? yes because you have said it before. did i call you a fanboy?

get off your high horse fella.


I agree with MDS - Kimi was ill, why risk him not being able to complete a full day's testing tomorrow by rushing him out?

Hamilton had less than half the laps Bottas did last week (similar to Kimi v Vettel), Mercedes haven't gone out of their way to redress the balance this week.

It's just Raikkonen fans getting their excuses in early for when we enter the European season with Raikkonen miles off Vettel's points haul.


100% agree. though he has done less then half the laps of sv during this test. tbh if roles were reversed sv would probably still be ahead anyway, but maybe not by as much. i just think he should have got the half a day back he lost on wednesday and i cant believe sv wouldnt have got it if roles reversed.


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PostPosted: Sat Mar 10, 2018 1:49 pm 
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Caserole of Nonsense wrote:
GingerFurball wrote:
It's just Raikkonen fans getting their excuses in early for when we enter the European season with Raikkonen miles off Vettel's points haul.


100% agree. though he has done less then half the laps of sv during this test. tbh if roles were reversed sv would probably still be ahead anyway, but maybe not by as much. i just think he should have got the half a day back he lost on wednesday and i cant believe sv wouldnt have got it if roles reversed.


Again though, was he even fully recovered? Whose decision was it?

He had a busy enough last day in the car (a tiny bit more than 60 laps ;) ), maybe that was thanks to not being in the car on Thursday and being able to fully recover.

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PostPosted: Sat Mar 10, 2018 2:01 pm 
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mds wrote:
Caserole of Nonsense wrote:
GingerFurball wrote:
It's just Raikkonen fans getting their excuses in early for when we enter the European season with Raikkonen miles off Vettel's points haul.


100% agree. though he has done less then half the laps of sv during this test. tbh if roles were reversed sv would probably still be ahead anyway, but maybe not by as much. i just think he should have got the half a day back he lost on wednesday and i cant believe sv wouldnt have got it if roles reversed.


Again though, was he even fully recovered? Whose decision was it?

He had a busy enough last day in the car (a tiny bit more than 60 laps ;) ), maybe that was thanks to not being in the car on Thursday and being able to fully recover.


missed off the 1!

sv did wednesday morning as cover and then kimi afternoon. so he was well enough to drive then. sv then did all thursday as program but in theory kimi could surely have done the morning to even it up. which my guess, going by how ferrari operate, is what would have happened if sv was ill. anyway its done and dusted now. but dont be suprised when i bring it up after race 3 when kimi is getting destroyed on here!


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PostPosted: Sat Mar 10, 2018 5:09 pm 
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Black_Flag_11 wrote:
Clarky wrote:
What was all this smoking from the Ferrari's when starting?

Seems to happen to all Ferrari engines and is most likely due to the rule changes around oil burning. There's also a little smoke when they're out on track and apparently their fuel consumption is pretty bad so it looks like they've screwed up the engine.

Yeah I'm guessing there is a relationship between not being able to burn that oil anymore and reports of poor fuel consumption, maybe Ferrari are more affected by the restrictions on oil burning than Mercedes?

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PostPosted: Sat Mar 10, 2018 5:14 pm 
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pokerman wrote:
Black_Flag_11 wrote:
Clarky wrote:
What was all this smoking from the Ferrari's when starting?

Seems to happen to all Ferrari engines and is most likely due to the rule changes around oil burning. There's also a little smoke when they're out on track and apparently their fuel consumption is pretty bad so it looks like they've screwed up the engine.

Yeah I'm guessing there is a relationship between not being able to burn that oil anymore and reports of poor fuel consumption, maybe Ferrari are more affected by the restrictions on oil burning than Mercedes?


They are chucking out a considerable amount of oil from the breather pipes as well. Ted Kravitz reported that Vettel was quite grumpy when questioned about there long-run pace on Thursday.


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PostPosted: Sat Mar 10, 2018 5:55 pm 
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https://www.motorsportmagazine.com/opin ... n-f1-tests

Mark Hughes hypothesises that the Ferrari does indeed have fuel consumption issues, and that it would tally with their long stint pace with what appeared to be 0 tyre degradation over the stint. He's not the first journo to wheel out the 'White SF70H' line when discussing the Haas either. If the Haas is suddenly as quick as it's times were suggesting (and tbh, I doubt it will be) then I expect a few irate team principals having words about just how close the collaboration has been with Ferrari this year.

Would be a very interesting year if the top 3 teams all really did shine on the broad 3 types of tires though.... but right now, Mercedes again look the team to beat.

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PostPosted: Sat Mar 10, 2018 6:34 pm 
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Mayhem wrote:
Lotus49 wrote:
The Haas is basically a baby Ferrari which is a well developed chassis and just some tweaks to the Ferrari at the end of last year. Same story as last year, they'll start strong because of it but as development continues elsewhere they'll fall back as they don't seem to develop very well which is understandable I guess at this stage of their existence.

Last year they were 4th quickest at Melbourne, 4ths in front of Williams and a mile ahead of everyone else as it's like putting the previous years Ferrari on the grid again. But it soon becomes a year old if you see what I mean.

They actually highlight how much development goes on in a year.


Indeed haas is baby Ferrari, which also makes you wonder how is it that they fell off so bad last year in the development and couldn't get a handle on their brake issue which seemed to go on forever. As the Ferrari engine upgrades kept coming in the chassis couldn't keep up.


Are they still largely based in the States? Maybe having to ship things around so much slows development? I have no real idea tbh and last year was new regs so what I was saying about last years car didn't hold true for that one, it was just a good base seemingly.

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PostPosted: Sat Mar 10, 2018 6:47 pm 
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Exediron wrote:
Lotus49 wrote:
The Haas is basically a baby Ferrari which is a well developed chassis and just some tweaks to the Ferrari at the end of last year. Same story as last year, they'll start strong because of it but as development continues elsewhere they'll fall back as they don't seem to develop very well which is understandable I guess at this stage of their existence.

The adjusted pace chart has it ahead of the Ferrari. That's not going to happen.


Not ahead of Ferrari no, I think the quali sims are a little more misleading than the race sims but I think they could be 4th again in Melbourne. At least it wouldn't surprise me like it did last year. Once bitten and all that.

The big question mark is McLaren for me. The Haas SS run that got raved about was a 2 lap run so clearly a quali sim using harder tyres to hide the time. But Alonso's 1.17.7 was on a 6 lap run, AMuS are claiming he had 20kg of fuel in the car which sounds ridiculous to me but whatever, and Renault were allegedly still limiting engine modes for all customers.(Read that in a Red Bull thread on AS). He was also apparently 2ths up before he cut the chicane so could've done a 1.17.5. (f1technical,McLaren thread)

So a detuned,heavy, launch spec with half the running of the competition did the 3rd fastest time of the entire test and could've gone 2ths quicker. :?

There's a bit too many allegedly's and apparently's in there for me but the 6 lap run that did the 3rd quickest time and in launch spec with half the running is entirely factual so there's some performance there. They could lock out 4th or be 6th behind Haas and Renault and I wouldn't be surprised at either tbh.

TLDR-I haven't a clue who's 4th, could be anyone. :]

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PostPosted: Sat Mar 10, 2018 7:12 pm 
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My prediction is that, if any team takes the fight to Mercedes this season, it will be Red Bull. Could be wrong but that's what I see happening. Ferrari have not effectively built on a competitive season in a long time. They were weaker in 2011 than they were in 2010; weaker in 2013 than they were in 2012; weaker in 2016 than they were in 2015, etc.


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PostPosted: Sat Mar 10, 2018 8:09 pm 
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I think Mercedes are hiding some weakness on softer compounds and Ferrari have PU efficiency problems. Red Bull less obvious weaknesses but not as fast to open.

Mercedes > Ferrari + 0.2 > Red Bull + 0.4 to open the season.


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PostPosted: Sat Mar 10, 2018 10:10 pm 
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sandman1347 wrote:
My prediction is that, if any team takes the fight to Mercedes this season, it will be Red Bull. Could be wrong but that's what I see happening. Ferrari have not effectively built on a competitive season in a long time. They were weaker in 2011 than they were in 2010; weaker in 2013 than they were in 2012; weaker in 2016 than they were in 2015, etc.

I sincerely hope you're wrong because the Renault engine means that fight is over before it begins :/

With McLaren looking pretty lacklustre, Red Bull being held back from any chance of a real title push due to the engine, Ferrari seemingly messing it up and Bottas in the second Mercedes I think this is the least excited for a season I've ever been after pre season testing.

The only question mark for me still is that Mercedes seem to struggle on softer compounds and once again they barely used them in testing, so maybe there's some hope of a championship fight there with Pirelli trying to push for 2 stop races.


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PostPosted: Sat Mar 10, 2018 11:59 pm 
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I don't think the Ferrari is even slower than the Merc but that their race sims either were somewhat sandbagged (more than Merc/RB) or they are seriously held back by some elements of efficiency with the PU, which is something that affected them last season in the second half especially at times IIRC.

Actually, I'd put Red Bull 0.5-0.7 behind rather than 0.4 to start the season, because the engine might not be consistently run to its potential until a few races in - isn't there a key update scheduled for early in the season? Renault will take it slow and steady before unleashing (what we hope to be) the beast.


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PostPosted: Sun Mar 11, 2018 12:19 am 
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Black_Flag_11 wrote:
sandman1347 wrote:
My prediction is that, if any team takes the fight to Mercedes this season, it will be Red Bull. Could be wrong but that's what I see happening. Ferrari have not effectively built on a competitive season in a long time. They were weaker in 2011 than they were in 2010; weaker in 2013 than they were in 2012; weaker in 2016 than they were in 2015, etc.

I sincerely hope you're wrong because the Renault engine means that fight is over before it begins :/

With McLaren looking pretty lacklustre, Red Bull being held back from any chance of a real title push due to the engine, Ferrari seemingly messing it up and Bottas in the second Mercedes I think this is the least excited for a season I've ever been after pre season testing.

The only question mark for me still is that Mercedes seem to struggle on softer compounds and once again they barely used them in testing,so maybe there's some hope of a championship fight there with Pirelli trying to push for 2 stop races.


From what i gather merc didnt run softer tires due to them just not selecting any softer tire allocations for testing so they simply didnt have those compounds at their disposal. With that being said getting harder compounds to work within the proper operating window is far more challenging then getting a softer tire to work. The drivers will be able to manage the tire deg if need be.

On the other hand Ferrari's fuel problem is an issue if they have to "lift and cost" to finish a race. That to me is a much bigger issue.

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Last edited by Mayhem on Sun Mar 11, 2018 12:49 pm, edited 1 time in total.

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PostPosted: Sun Mar 11, 2018 3:01 am 
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The times gained by teams when compared to last years testing. No surprises to see the team that stands in the 1st place:

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Source - www.Formula1.com

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PostPosted: Sun Mar 11, 2018 9:24 am 
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Invade wrote:
I think Mercedes are hiding some weakness on softer compounds and Ferrari have PU efficiency problems. Red Bull less obvious weaknesses but not as fast to open.

Mercedes > Ferrari + 0.2 > Red Bull + 0.4 to open the season.

Do you have a source for the Ferrari PU efficiency problems? I can't seem to find anywhere


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PostPosted: Sun Mar 11, 2018 10:39 am 
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Lotus49 wrote:
sandman1347 wrote:
So what do we think guys? Mercedes dominance? Merc/Ferrari close battle? Red Bull right there? Thoughts?


Going by the race stints it's Mercedes dominance with Ferrari/Red Bull further away than 2016 so unless Ferrari are sandbagging to world record levels it's number 5 in the bag for Mercedes and Bottas vs Lewis for the title.

So Lewis getting his 5th title too basically ;)

Renault vs McLaren for 4th. Haas will beat one or both in Australia though but fall away post Spain. Force India will recover and either join the fight for 4th or fight for 5th with Williams and Haas.

STR and Sauber bring up the rear with asterisk next to STR as Honda's money and full chassis dyno could help James Key immensely and if Honda's first upgrade works well they could then jump into anywhere behind the top 3 and it wouldn't surprise me.

Mercedes only used medium tyres in their race sims so their stints aren't really represenative of real race conditions.

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PostPosted: Sun Mar 11, 2018 12:20 pm 
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dizlexik wrote:
Lotus49 wrote:
sandman1347 wrote:
So what do we think guys? Mercedes dominance? Merc/Ferrari close battle? Red Bull right there? Thoughts?


Going by the race stints it's Mercedes dominance with Ferrari/Red Bull further away than 2016 so unless Ferrari are sandbagging to world record levels it's number 5 in the bag for Mercedes and Bottas vs Lewis for the title.

So Lewis getting his 5th title too basically ;)

Renault vs McLaren for 4th. Haas will beat one or both in Australia though but fall away post Spain. Force India will recover and either join the fight for 4th or fight for 5th with Williams and Haas.

STR and Sauber bring up the rear with asterisk next to STR as Honda's money and full chassis dyno could help James Key immensely and if Honda's first upgrade works well they could then jump into anywhere behind the top 3 and it wouldn't surprise me.

Mercedes only used medium tyres in their race sims so their stints aren't really represenative of real race conditions.


Well, they aren't exactly going to be going slower on softer compounds, are they? Even if they start chewing tyres, it'll have to cost them something to the tune of half a second a lap on the slower compounds to bring Ferrari/RB into play going on those figures (which admittedly, makes the whole analysis based on foundations of sand).

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PostPosted: Sun Mar 11, 2018 2:35 pm 
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Zoue wrote:
Invade wrote:
I think Mercedes are hiding some weakness on softer compounds and Ferrari have PU efficiency problems. Red Bull less obvious weaknesses but not as fast to open.

Mercedes > Ferrari + 0.2 > Red Bull + 0.4 to open the season.

Do you have a source for the Ferrari PU efficiency problems? I can't seem to find anywhere

The story has been put out there by AMUS.

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PostPosted: Sun Mar 11, 2018 2:38 pm 
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Flash2k11 wrote:
dizlexik wrote:
Lotus49 wrote:
sandman1347 wrote:
So what do we think guys? Mercedes dominance? Merc/Ferrari close battle? Red Bull right there? Thoughts?


Going by the race stints it's Mercedes dominance with Ferrari/Red Bull further away than 2016 so unless Ferrari are sandbagging to world record levels it's number 5 in the bag for Mercedes and Bottas vs Lewis for the title.

So Lewis getting his 5th title too basically ;)

Renault vs McLaren for 4th. Haas will beat one or both in Australia though but fall away post Spain. Force India will recover and either join the fight for 4th or fight for 5th with Williams and Haas.

STR and Sauber bring up the rear with asterisk next to STR as Honda's money and full chassis dyno could help James Key immensely and if Honda's first upgrade works well they could then jump into anywhere behind the top 3 and it wouldn't surprise me.

Mercedes only used medium tyres in their race sims so their stints aren't really represenative of real race conditions.


Well, they aren't exactly going to be going slower on softer compounds, are they? Even if they start chewing tyres, it'll have to cost them something to the tune of half a second a lap on the slower compounds to bring Ferrari/RB into play going on those figures (which admittedly, makes the whole analysis based on foundations of sand).

We don't know.

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PostPosted: Sun Mar 11, 2018 3:08 pm 
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First 4 and last team seems to be same for most people.
https://www.motorsport.com/f1/video/main-gallery/barcelona-wrap-up-106106/?s=2

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PostPosted: Sun Mar 11, 2018 7:20 pm 
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dizlexik wrote:
Flash2k11 wrote:
dizlexik wrote:
Lotus49 wrote:
sandman1347 wrote:
So what do we think guys? Mercedes dominance? Merc/Ferrari close battle? Red Bull right there? Thoughts?


Going by the race stints it's Mercedes dominance with Ferrari/Red Bull further away than 2016 so unless Ferrari are sandbagging to world record levels it's number 5 in the bag for Mercedes and Bottas vs Lewis for the title.

So Lewis getting his 5th title too basically ;)

Renault vs McLaren for 4th. Haas will beat one or both in Australia though but fall away post Spain. Force India will recover and either join the fight for 4th or fight for 5th with Williams and Haas.

STR and Sauber bring up the rear with asterisk next to STR as Honda's money and full chassis dyno could help James Key immensely and if Honda's first upgrade works well they could then jump into anywhere behind the top 3 and it wouldn't surprise me.

Mercedes only used medium tyres in their race sims so their stints aren't really represenative of real race conditions.


Well, they aren't exactly going to be going slower on softer compounds, are they? Even if they start chewing tyres, it'll have to cost them something to the tune of half a second a lap on the slower compounds to bring Ferrari/RB into play going on those figures (which admittedly, makes the whole analysis based on foundations of sand).

We don't know.


They did all use Mediums on the last 2 stints though and it was still over a second a lap on average advantage to Bottas.

Bottas. Compared against Max and Seb.

You never know, Ferrari changed aero concept so naturally there might be some initial niggles with trying to get the LWB to work with high rake and Renault were still running conservatively and Red Bull develop probably faster than anyone so I wouldn't call it season over or anything but the long run sims in the last 2 days of winter testing have correctly predicted what we've seen pre Monaco for the last 4 or 5 seasons and that's the biggest advantage since 2015 so it's pretty ominous.

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PostPosted: Sun Mar 11, 2018 8:43 pm 
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pokerman wrote:
Zoue wrote:
Invade wrote:
I think Mercedes are hiding some weakness on softer compounds and Ferrari have PU efficiency problems. Red Bull less obvious weaknesses but not as fast to open.

Mercedes > Ferrari + 0.2 > Red Bull + 0.4 to open the season.

Do you have a source for the Ferrari PU efficiency problems? I can't seem to find anywhere

The story has been put out there by AMUS.

thanks :thumbup:


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PostPosted: Mon Mar 12, 2018 7:38 am 
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I still believe Mclaren may be closer than everyone thinks. I don't know why I have this feeling, maybe being too optimistic.

If you look at the car it seems way too undeveloped in the sidepod area, making me think that updates may be coming for melbourne.


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PostPosted: Mon Mar 12, 2018 8:03 am 
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paul_gmb wrote:
I still believe Mclaren may be closer than everyone thinks. I don't know why I have this feeling, maybe being too optimistic.

If you look at the car it seems way too undeveloped in the sidepod area, making me think that updates may be coming for melbourne.


The weird thing is that they would then go to Melbourne with an untested package.

There would be a few possible reasons for that:
1. They are sitting on something big and they only want to share it at the very latest, i.e. Melbourne
2. They didn't have enough time to develop it and put it on the car, but it will be ready in Melbourne
3. There won't be a big update in Melbourne

I think it's between 2 and 3...

Having said that, I share your feelings about their package. They have reliability concerns, but speed-wise they weren't woefully off the pace like they have been in recent years. I don't expect them to occupy places somewhere in the first three rows on the starting grid, but it wouldn't surprise me if they place right behind that. Which, for now, would be a good achievement.

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PostPosted: Mon Mar 12, 2018 8:43 am 
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mds wrote:
The weird thing is that they would then go to Melbourne with an untested package.

There would be a few possible reasons for that:
1. They are sitting on something big and they only want to share it at the very latest, i.e. Melbourne
2. They didn't have enough time to develop it and put it on the car, but it will be ready in Melbourne
3. There won't be a big update in Melbourne

I think it's between 2 and 3...

Having said that, I share your feelings about their package. They have reliability concerns, but speed-wise they weren't woefully off the pace like they have been in recent years. I don't expect them to occupy places somewhere in the first three rows on the starting grid, but it wouldn't surprise me if they place right behind that. Which, for now, would be a good achievement.

They've been saying since February that they're going to have a huge update for Melbourne and the car won't be done before then, so I'm pretty sure that's what they're going to do. As for why, that's admittedly anyone's guess.

I do think it's a bit weird that everyone seems to just accept that Force India will be updating the car in Melbourne and it will work, but they question when McLaren (who were much faster in the test) says the same thing. There are some definite double standards in fan reactions to testing.

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PostPosted: Mon Mar 12, 2018 8:47 am 
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mds wrote:
paul_gmb wrote:
I still believe Mclaren may be closer than everyone thinks. I don't know why I have this feeling, maybe being too optimistic.

If you look at the car it seems way too undeveloped in the sidepod area, making me think that updates may be coming for melbourne.


The weird thing is that they would then go to Melbourne with an untested package.

There would be a few possible reasons for that:
1. They are sitting on something big and they only want to share it at the very latest, i.e. Melbourne
2. They didn't have enough time to develop it and put it on the car, but it will be ready in Melbourne
3. There won't be a big update in Melbourne

I think it's between 2 and 3...

Having said that, I share your feelings about their package. They have reliability concerns, but speed-wise they weren't woefully off the pace like they have been in recent years. I don't expect them to occupy places somewhere in the first three rows on the starting grid, but it wouldn't surprise me if they place right behind that. Which, for now, would be a good achievement.

I know I appear to have higher expectations than many, but I don't really see a reason why McLaren can't have loftier ambitions at the start than merely heading the midfield. They moved away from Works team status so that they could compete at the front again, not be an also-ran. They have pretty deep pockets themselves and have the resources to compete with the big boys - indeed, it wasn't that long ago that they were considered one of the big boys of F1 themselves. If they don't have a chassis that can mix it up at the front, then they've failed, as far as I'm concerned. So all that remains is PU integration and they should IMO have the depth of technical expertise to make that happen.

If the Renault PU is down on power compared with the Mercedes and Ferrari, then I wouldn't fault McLaren for not being able to compete with them. But if they are not at least challenging the Red Bulls at a very early stage, then there will be question marks from me as to why they moved away from Works status. Simply moving a few places up the field isn't enough


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PostPosted: Mon Mar 12, 2018 9:15 am 
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Exediron wrote:
mds wrote:
The weird thing is that they would then go to Melbourne with an untested package.

There would be a few possible reasons for that:
1. They are sitting on something big and they only want to share it at the very latest, i.e. Melbourne
2. They didn't have enough time to develop it and put it on the car, but it will be ready in Melbourne
3. There won't be a big update in Melbourne

I think it's between 2 and 3...

Having said that, I share your feelings about their package. They have reliability concerns, but speed-wise they weren't woefully off the pace like they have been in recent years. I don't expect them to occupy places somewhere in the first three rows on the starting grid, but it wouldn't surprise me if they place right behind that. Which, for now, would be a good achievement.

They've been saying since February that they're going to have a huge update for Melbourne and the car won't be done before then, so I'm pretty sure that's what they're going to do. As for why, that's admittedly anyone's guess.

I do think it's a bit weird that everyone seems to just accept that Force India will be updating the car in Melbourne and it will work, but they question when McLaren (who were much faster in the test) says the same thing. There are some definite double standards in fan reactions to testing.


Well to address that: I'm sceptical for both ;)
Surely you would agree that it's very much possible that a big untested package doesn't work as they thought it would, and so that it poses a risk to only introduce it during a racing weekend?

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PostPosted: Mon Mar 12, 2018 9:20 am 
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Zoue wrote:
I know I appear to have higher expectations than many, but I don't really see a reason why McLaren can't have loftier ambitions at the start than merely heading the midfield. They moved away from Works team status so that they could compete at the front again, not be an also-ran. They have pretty deep pockets themselves and have the resources to compete with the big boys - indeed, it wasn't that long ago that they were considered one of the big boys of F1 themselves. If they don't have a chassis that can mix it up at the front, then they've failed, as far as I'm concerned. So all that remains is PU integration and they should IMO have the depth of technical expertise to make that happen.

If the Renault PU is down on power compared with the Mercedes and Ferrari, then I wouldn't fault McLaren for not being able to compete with them. But if they are not at least challenging the Red Bulls at a very early stage, then there will be question marks from me as to why they moved away from Works status. Simply moving a few places up the field isn't enough


Well, I already shared my opinion on the comparison with RBR elsewhere. At this points, right now, they have two disadvantages with regards to RBR: first is they've had to do a new PU integration, which is never easy if you also want to be ambitious with regards to the car's design.
The second disadvantage is that the past few years they've had to compromise setups much more than other teams to make up for serious deficiencies of the Honda unit, rendering the data they have less effective/less representative. Data is worth so much in today's F1, they have supercomputers churning on the collected data around the clock, so this is a definite disadvantage.

If you say "well, McLaren should be able to overcome that" - I agree, but not from the off. It would mean RBR, with the easier job and better data, would have done a lousy job tbh.

But as the season progresses, McLaren should come closer and closer to challenging RBR.

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PostPosted: Mon Mar 12, 2018 9:39 am 
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mds wrote:
Exediron wrote:
I do think it's a bit weird that everyone seems to just accept that Force India will be updating the car in Melbourne and it will work, but they question when McLaren (who were much faster in the test) says the same thing. There are some definite double standards in fan reactions to testing.

Well to address that: I'm sceptical for both ;)
Surely you would agree that it's very much possible that a big untested package doesn't work as they thought it would, and so that it poses a risk to only introduce it during a racing weekend?

:thumbup: 8)

Fair enough. I do certainly agree that it's a big risk, and as a McLaren fan I'd be a liar if I said it didn't make me nervous! But if their correlation in the wind tunnel throughout testing has been good (they say it has been, but you can't really trust any team on that unless they've started to under-perform in the season!) then they should be pretty sure that their update will work as well.

Mind you, as a Macca fan I'm 100% hoping that they've got something up their sleeves so good they don't want anyone else to copy it. But if it's just a pretty normal half second worth of aero upgrades, that's more believable and potentially enough to get them where they need to be, depending on how much you can read into testing. Which isn't much, especially for such a mixed up testing as this was.

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PostPosted: Mon Mar 12, 2018 9:52 am 
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from what i've seen, all the major f1 commentators and specialized press are discounting mclaren.

I just hope somehow they are wrong on this one.


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PostPosted: Mon Mar 12, 2018 11:17 am 
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Many articles have stated that Haas is the dark horse going into 2018 season. What You guys think?

The times that were set in the 2nd test (also considering it's a new tarmac on the circuit) were they fast enough to be compared to the ones that would typically be set in a grand prix weekend? I feel there are some question marks relating to teams like Red BUll, Force India & McLaren!

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PostPosted: Mon Mar 12, 2018 12:29 pm 
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Exediron wrote:
Mind you, as a Macca fan I'm 100% hoping that they've got something up their sleeves so good they don't want anyone else to copy it.


Hey - me too! Reason is in my signature :)

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PostPosted: Mon Mar 12, 2018 1:11 pm 
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looks like, until the regulations are changed, merc is going to keep dominating. congrats to them, as that is the point of racing. just doesn't inspire confidence that there will be a season long battle for the title. another year with a strong mid field though


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PostPosted: Mon Mar 12, 2018 1:14 pm 
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If McLaren promised a major update by Melbourne, I'd say it'll be there for Azerbaijan...

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PostPosted: Mon Mar 12, 2018 5:18 pm 
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I think it's No.2 on mds list because of the work done at the rear of the car with the new suspension and packaging taking up most of their efforts and pushing other work further down the order of importance.

They concentrated heavily on correlation over the past few years and is supposedly very good, over 90% was quoted by Amus last year so they'll have a lot of confidence that what their cfd/sims suggest for the new package at Melbourne will work as intended. The last part that I can recall had to be taken back off for tweaking was the first iteration of their fancy rear wing endplate in mid 2016 iirc but that was never run in the race it was just ran in practice so it may not have been taking off for correlation issues but was just always meant for running in FP only, hard to know.

I think the new upgrade will be around the bargeboard area. Their was a rumour on another forum McLaren had a fluidic switch in that area but whether that's true or not, I doubt it myself, I still think that's the area the upgrade will be in like last year in Oz. Hopefully both drivers can get it this time though but it wouldn't surprise me if not.

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PostPosted: Mon Mar 12, 2018 8:00 pm 
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paul_gmb wrote:
from what i've seen, all the major f1 commentators and specialized press are discounting mclaren.

I just hope somehow they are wrong on this one.

They don't have any more of a clue than we do. Last year they were all discounting Ferrari and pointing to Mercedes running adjusted times on harder tyres, kind of like they are now - come Melbourne, it turned out that Ferrari really was that quick, and they had all got it wrong. And I'm sure plenty of us can remember how many experts wrote Brawn off for just doing glory runs to attract sponsors...

The experts do have access to a little bit more information than we do, sure. But nobody has access to the real adjustments of what programs the teams were running or how close they were to 100%.

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PostPosted: Mon Mar 12, 2018 9:08 pm 
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Exediron wrote:
paul_gmb wrote:
from what i've seen, all the major f1 commentators and specialized press are discounting mclaren.

I just hope somehow they are wrong on this one.

They don't have any more of a clue than we do. Last year they were all discounting Ferrari and pointing to Mercedes running adjusted times on harder tyres, kind of like they are now - come Melbourne, it turned out that Ferrari really was that quick, and they had all got it wrong. And I'm sure plenty of us can remember how many experts wrote Brawn off for just doing glory runs to attract sponsors...

The experts do have access to a little bit more information than we do, sure. But nobody has access to the real adjustments of what programs the teams were running or how close they were to 100%.

Very true. It's all guess work at this stage. Even the teams themselves don't really know how they stack up.


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PostPosted: Tue Mar 13, 2018 12:03 am 
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Flash2k11 wrote:
https://www.motorsportmagazine.com/opinion/f1/closer-look-preseason-f1-tests

Mark Hughes hypothesises that the Ferrari does indeed have fuel consumption issues, and that it would tally with their long stint pace with what appeared to be 0 tyre degradation over the stint. He's not the first journo to wheel out the 'White SF70H' line when discussing the Haas either. If the Haas is suddenly as quick as it's times were suggesting (and tbh, I doubt it will be) then I expect a few irate team principals having words about just how close the collaboration has been with Ferrari this year.

I have to ask: why does Hughes automatically assume that the reason to why Vettel drove at a delta pace in testing was because he has to save fuel? What if they are just sandbagging?

On his 17.1 lap (the fastest time in testing), Vettel lifted over the line.

It could also be a combination of both. Ferrari need to save more fuel but they are also sandbagging a bit.


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PostPosted: Tue Mar 13, 2018 3:05 am 
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paul_gmb wrote:
from what i've seen, all the major f1 commentators and specialized press are discounting mclaren.

I just hope somehow they are wrong on this one.


Mclaren did lot of hypersoft runs and had reliability problems. Completely opposite of Mercedes. Usually these are not good signs. If I were Mclaren fan I will be worried. I think they will happy with P7 and P8 assuming it is a normal races for top 3 teams. But I think Renault are better and Haas will also get points I think

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