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PostPosted: Sun May 06, 2018 6:02 pm 
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davidheath461 wrote:
It's certainly not 2 tenths because we know that Vettel and KImi messed up their final Q3 runs.


Ferrari was only going to make a slight improvement on their second runs :?

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PostPosted: Sun May 06, 2018 9:07 pm 
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It will be interesting to see which car is quickest in the wet.

My prediction would be Ferrari since they are able to switch on the tyres so easily.


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PostPosted: Sun May 06, 2018 10:00 pm 
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F1_Ernie wrote:
Zoue wrote:
F1_Ernie wrote:
The times are their because Kimi finished sector 1 and 2. Kimi was 0.467 up over Hamilton at sector 2. We don't have a Kimi sector 3 but we know Hamilton was a tenth off his best time in sector 3 on his final and best lap. We also know Vettel had a banker, his faster than Kimi and nearly alway improves on his second run.

I think 4 tenths is a big gap between 2 equal drivers, you don't. Ask Vettel and Hamilton if they would like a car with a 3 or 4 tenth advantage, they would bite your hand off.

You can easily have a dominant car in one quali session, race, weekend, season. Ferrari have been dominant in China and Baku qualifying, doesn't mean they are the dominant car all weekend, season etc.
If Redbull get pole at Monaco by a big margin, they dominated.

Well if Hamilton was a tenth off his best sector time then that just makes the gap smaller, not bigger. Vettel beat him by 0.179s, so a tenth off that makes them virtually neck and neck. We don't know what Kimi would have done, but OTOH we have no evidence that he would have gone quicker than Vettel in that final sector. But 4 tenths is still a fantasy number and the true gap is much more likely to be 2 tenths, maybe a little more at a pinch, but I haven't seen anything to suggest 4 tenths was anything like representative


Why would it? There could be reasons why Hamilton was slower in the last sector like why he did personal bests in the first 2 sectors and pushed too hard? Did he get a tow on his first run? Could be to do with wind either lap?
All we know is Kimi was up on Hamilton 0.467 at sector 2, the rest is guess work, i personally think Kimi would have been around 3 tenths up, there's nothing to say either way though, I have gone with 4 tenths because I know Vettel is quicker than Kimi. If Kimi did match Vettels sector 3 then Kimi would be ahead by around 0.360, thats including Hamilton losing a tenth on his best on his final run. If Kimi is 3 tenths quicker than Hamilton then the car was dominant.

I

don't you think that's not treating them the same? Ferrari could have gone quicker because Vettel didn't have as good a lap in his second run, whereas Hamilton having a slower S3 in his final run must be due to "reasons" and it doesn't mean the Mercedes could have gone quicker? Doesn't really sound fair to me?

There's nothing solid that points to Ferrari having any more than a couple of tenths over Mercedes. Which is still an advantage, but it's not exactly dominant


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PostPosted: Sun May 06, 2018 10:01 pm 
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davidheath461 wrote:
It's certainly not 2 tenths because we know that Vettel and KImi messed up their final Q3 runs.

and Hamilton dropped a tenth in his final sector, so...


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PostPosted: Sun May 06, 2018 11:59 pm 
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Saying the gap is 2 tenths is basically saying Vettel would not have improved on his 2nd run and Kimi would have lost 0.267 in sector 3 to get to the required 2 tenths over Mercedes. Ferraris best sectors was 0.270 quicker than Mercedes and that's without a Kimi final sector and Vettel not doing a 2nd run so really there is nothing wrong in saying the gap was 3 tenths. We know the Mercedes pace but we never got to see how Ferrari matched up.

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PostPosted: Mon May 07, 2018 5:40 am 
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F1_Ernie wrote:
Saying the gap is 2 tenths is basically saying Vettel would not have improved on his 2nd run and Kimi would have lost 0.267 in sector 3 to get to the required 2 tenths over Mercedes. Ferraris best sectors was 0.270 quicker than Mercedes and that's without a Kimi final sector and Vettel not doing a 2nd run so really there is nothing wrong in saying the gap was 3 tenths. We know the Mercedes pace but we never got to see how Ferrari matched up.

It absolutely could have been 3 tenths. I'm not saying it's impossible. But if you allow for the fact that Vettel might have improved, you also have to allow for the fact that Hamilton dropped a tenth in his final sector and the two might possibly cancel each other out. All we know for sure is that the gap was (just under) 2 tenths and if we imagine more positive scenarios for Ferrari then surely we have to do the same for Mercedes?


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PostPosted: Mon May 07, 2018 9:54 am 
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Zoue wrote:
F1_Ernie wrote:
Saying the gap is 2 tenths is basically saying Vettel would not have improved on his 2nd run and Kimi would have lost 0.267 in sector 3 to get to the required 2 tenths over Mercedes. Ferraris best sectors was 0.270 quicker than Mercedes and that's without a Kimi final sector and Vettel not doing a 2nd run so really there is nothing wrong in saying the gap was 3 tenths. We know the Mercedes pace but we never got to see how Ferrari matched up.

It absolutely could have been 3 tenths. I'm not saying it's impossible. But if you allow for the fact that Vettel might have improved, you also have to allow for the fact that Hamilton dropped a tenth in his final sector and the two might possibly cancel each other out. All we know for sure is that the gap was (just under) 2 tenths and if we imagine more positive scenarios for Ferrari then surely we have to do the same for Mercedes?


But the Mercs improved on their 2nd runs in Q3. The Ferraris didn't.


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PostPosted: Mon May 07, 2018 10:58 am 
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Zoue wrote:
F1_Ernie wrote:
Saying the gap is 2 tenths is basically saying Vettel would not have improved on his 2nd run and Kimi would have lost 0.267 in sector 3 to get to the required 2 tenths over Mercedes. Ferraris best sectors was 0.270 quicker than Mercedes and that's without a Kimi final sector and Vettel not doing a 2nd run so really there is nothing wrong in saying the gap was 3 tenths. We know the Mercedes pace but we never got to see how Ferrari matched up.

It absolutely could have been 3 tenths. I'm not saying it's impossible. But if you allow for the fact that Vettel might have improved, you also have to allow for the fact that Hamilton dropped a tenth in his final sector and the two might possibly cancel each other out. All we know for sure is that the gap was (just under) 2 tenths and if we imagine more positive scenarios for Ferrari then surely we have to do the same for Mercedes?


The gap was 0.270 taking into account Ferrari and Mercedes best sectors. Both Mercedes drivers had the chance to improve on their second runs, Kimi couldn't complete a sector 3 or Vettel a second run. So Ferrari was nearly 3 tenths ahead without the chance of of improving.

You are saying Vettel would have matched his first time and Kimi would have lost 0.267 in the last sector. Anyway to me it's pretty obvious.

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PostPosted: Mon May 07, 2018 12:22 pm 
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davidheath461 wrote:
Zoue wrote:
F1_Ernie wrote:
Saying the gap is 2 tenths is basically saying Vettel would not have improved on his 2nd run and Kimi would have lost 0.267 in sector 3 to get to the required 2 tenths over Mercedes. Ferraris best sectors was 0.270 quicker than Mercedes and that's without a Kimi final sector and Vettel not doing a 2nd run so really there is nothing wrong in saying the gap was 3 tenths. We know the Mercedes pace but we never got to see how Ferrari matched up.

It absolutely could have been 3 tenths. I'm not saying it's impossible. But if you allow for the fact that Vettel might have improved, you also have to allow for the fact that Hamilton dropped a tenth in his final sector and the two might possibly cancel each other out. All we know for sure is that the gap was (just under) 2 tenths and if we imagine more positive scenarios for Ferrari then surely we have to do the same for Mercedes?


But the Mercs improved on their 2nd runs in Q3. The Ferraris didn't.

The Mercs improved, but still dropped a tenth in the final sector. Which means they might have improved more


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PostPosted: Mon May 07, 2018 12:28 pm 
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F1_Ernie wrote:
Zoue wrote:
F1_Ernie wrote:
Saying the gap is 2 tenths is basically saying Vettel would not have improved on his 2nd run and Kimi would have lost 0.267 in sector 3 to get to the required 2 tenths over Mercedes. Ferraris best sectors was 0.270 quicker than Mercedes and that's without a Kimi final sector and Vettel not doing a 2nd run so really there is nothing wrong in saying the gap was 3 tenths. We know the Mercedes pace but we never got to see how Ferrari matched up.

It absolutely could have been 3 tenths. I'm not saying it's impossible. But if you allow for the fact that Vettel might have improved, you also have to allow for the fact that Hamilton dropped a tenth in his final sector and the two might possibly cancel each other out. All we know for sure is that the gap was (just under) 2 tenths and if we imagine more positive scenarios for Ferrari then surely we have to do the same for Mercedes?


The gap was 0.270 taking into account Ferrari and Mercedes best sectors. Both Mercedes drivers had the chance to improve on their second runs, Kimi couldn't complete a sector 3 or Vettel a second run. So Ferrari was nearly 3 tenths ahead without the chance of of improving.

You are saying Vettel would have matched his first time and Kimi would have lost 0.267 in the last sector. Anyway to me it's pretty obvious.

Given that Kimi and Seb showed different pace in different areas of the track, it's possible that they were running different setups. In which case it's not a foregone conclusion that you can just add their fastest sectors together to produce a theoretical lap. The only gap we know of was 0.179s and we also know that Hamilton dropped a tenth off his best S3 time, which makes that particular gap less than a tenth. Now it's possible that either Vettel or Kimi may have been able to go quicker on their final runs, but given that nobody else showed significant improvement that's not a dead cert either, certainly not enough to confidently predict xx tenths.

I'm saying we can't predict what Kimi might have done in the final sector without having any data to work off.


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PostPosted: Mon May 07, 2018 12:33 pm 
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Guys you are arguing over a tenth, seems pretty similar ball park to me.

On the Vettel “may have gone quicker”, he went quicker on the 2nd run in Q3 3/3 this year before Baku and 16/18 races last year. The only exceptions were Bahrain and Hungary (not sure what happened to his 2nd runs then). He goes quicker about 90% of the time, things that occur around 90% of the time are generally accepted to occur?

Does anybody remember which race last year, Hamilton got pole with a banker lap and Vettels 2nd run got a lot closer to pole and people rightly said Vettel wasn’t really that close as it was just because Hamilton made an error on his main flying lap?

Edit - I found it. USA 2017. Hamiltons was 0.750 ahead of Vettel on Banker laps, Hamilton was then improving his time significantly before an error in S3 and didn’t beat the Banker time. Vettel ended up 0.250 behind but the Mercedes was clearly 0.5 quicker if Hamilton didn’t make an error.


Last edited by Johnson on Mon May 07, 2018 12:42 pm, edited 1 time in total.

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PostPosted: Mon May 07, 2018 12:36 pm 
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Johnson wrote:
Guys you are arguing over a tenth, seems pretty similar ball park to me.

On the Vettel “may have gone quicker”, he went quicker on the 2nd run in Q3 3/3 this year before Baku and 16/18 races last year. The only exceptions were Bahrain and Hungary (not sure what happened to his 2nd runs then). He goes quicker about 90% of the time, things that occur around 90% of the time are generally accepted to occur?

Does anybody remember which race last year, Hamilton got pole with a banker lap and Vettels 2nd run got a lot closer to pole and people rightly said Vettel wasn’t really that close as it was just because Hamilton made an error on his main flying lap?


Austin? Or maybe Malaysia (but with Kimi)?

That's gonna bug me,lol.

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PostPosted: Mon May 07, 2018 12:43 pm 
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Yes, I just found it. Austin. Edited my comment.


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PostPosted: Mon May 07, 2018 12:43 pm 
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Zoue wrote:
F1_Ernie wrote:
Zoue wrote:
F1_Ernie wrote:
Saying the gap is 2 tenths is basically saying Vettel would not have improved on his 2nd run and Kimi would have lost 0.267 in sector 3 to get to the required 2 tenths over Mercedes. Ferraris best sectors was 0.270 quicker than Mercedes and that's without a Kimi final sector and Vettel not doing a 2nd run so really there is nothing wrong in saying the gap was 3 tenths. We know the Mercedes pace but we never got to see how Ferrari matched up.

It absolutely could have been 3 tenths. I'm not saying it's impossible. But if you allow for the fact that Vettel might have improved, you also have to allow for the fact that Hamilton dropped a tenth in his final sector and the two might possibly cancel each other out. All we know for sure is that the gap was (just under) 2 tenths and if we imagine more positive scenarios for Ferrari then surely we have to do the same for Mercedes?


The gap was 0.270 taking into account Ferrari and Mercedes best sectors. Both Mercedes drivers had the chance to improve on their second runs, Kimi couldn't complete a sector 3 or Vettel a second run. So Ferrari was nearly 3 tenths ahead without the chance of of improving.

You are saying Vettel would have matched his first time and Kimi would have lost 0.267 in the last sector. Anyway to me it's pretty obvious.

Given that Kimi and Seb showed different pace in different areas of the track, it's possible that they were running different setups. In which case it's not a foregone conclusion that you can just add their fastest sectors together to produce a theoretical lap. The only gap we know of was 0.179s and we also know that Hamilton dropped a tenth off his best S3 time, which makes that particular gap less than a tenth. Now it's possible that either Vettel or Kimi may have been able to go quicker on their final runs, but given that nobody else showed significant improvement that's not a dead cert either, certainly not enough to confidently predict xx tenths.

I'm saying we can't predict what Kimi might have done in the final sector without having any data to work off.


You have any proof regarding different setups? To lose 0.267 in one corner is alot of time to get to your required 2 tenths and that also requires Vettel to not improve. The trend is Vettel would improve as even Kimi was smashing Vettels and Hamilton's time at sector 2, Vettel said he was hitting purple sectors and he had nothing to lose a bit like both Mercedes drivers had nothing to lose regarding RB. Hamilton made an significant improvement of 0.163 of his second run, Bottas a tenth so it shows even more Vettel would have likely improved.

When Kimi is beating Hamilton then you know the car is alot better.

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Last edited by F1_Ernie on Mon May 07, 2018 1:02 pm, edited 1 time in total.

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PostPosted: Mon May 07, 2018 12:58 pm 
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F1_Ernie wrote:
Zoue wrote:
F1_Ernie wrote:
Zoue wrote:
F1_Ernie wrote:
Saying the gap is 2 tenths is basically saying Vettel would not have improved on his 2nd run and Kimi would have lost 0.267 in sector 3 to get to the required 2 tenths over Mercedes. Ferraris best sectors was 0.270 quicker than Mercedes and that's without a Kimi final sector and Vettel not doing a 2nd run so really there is nothing wrong in saying the gap was 3 tenths. We know the Mercedes pace but we never got to see how Ferrari matched up.

It absolutely could have been 3 tenths. I'm not saying it's impossible. But if you allow for the fact that Vettel might have improved, you also have to allow for the fact that Hamilton dropped a tenth in his final sector and the two might possibly cancel each other out. All we know for sure is that the gap was (just under) 2 tenths and if we imagine more positive scenarios for Ferrari then surely we have to do the same for Mercedes?


The gap was 0.270 taking into account Ferrari and Mercedes best sectors. Both Mercedes drivers had the chance to improve on their second runs, Kimi couldn't complete a sector 3 or Vettel a second run. So Ferrari was nearly 3 tenths ahead without the chance of of improving.

You are saying Vettel would have matched his first time and Kimi would have lost 0.267 in the last sector. Anyway to me it's pretty obvious.

Given that Kimi and Seb showed different pace in different areas of the track, it's possible that they were running different setups. In which case it's not a foregone conclusion that you can just add their fastest sectors together to produce a theoretical lap. The only gap we know of was 0.179s and we also know that Hamilton dropped a tenth off his best S3 time, which makes that particular gap less than a tenth. Now it's possible that either Vettel or Kimi may have been able to go quicker on their final runs, but given that nobody else showed significant improvement that's not a dead cert either, certainly not enough to confidently predict xx tenths.

I'm saying we can't predict what Kimi might have done in the final sector without having any data to work off.


You have any proof regarding different setups? To lose 0.267 in one corner is alot of time to get to your required 2 tenths and that also requires Vettel to not improve. The trend is Vettel would improve as even Kimi was smashing Vettels and Hamilton's time at sector 2, Vettel said he was hitting purple sectors and he had nothing to lose a bit like both Mercedes drivers had nothing to lose regarding RB.

When Kimi is beating Hamilton then you know the car is alot better.

I don't which is why I said it's absolutely possible. I'm open to the idea that it's 2-3 tenths, but what I'm arguing against is the assumption that it must be so. And in previous laps Kimi had dropped 3 tenths to Hamilton in the final sector - it's more than simply a corner!

I can't agree with your final statement. Kimi is close to beating Vettel on one lap pace so far this year and we can't blame that on the car. I don't think we can make an assumption on how good the car is purely from that


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PostPosted: Mon May 07, 2018 1:05 pm 
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F1_Ernie wrote:
Zoue wrote:
F1_Ernie wrote:
Zoue wrote:
F1_Ernie wrote:
Saying the gap is 2 tenths is basically saying Vettel would not have improved on his 2nd run and Kimi would have lost 0.267 in sector 3 to get to the required 2 tenths over Mercedes. Ferraris best sectors was 0.270 quicker than Mercedes and that's without a Kimi final sector and Vettel not doing a 2nd run so really there is nothing wrong in saying the gap was 3 tenths. We know the Mercedes pace but we never got to see how Ferrari matched up.

It absolutely could have been 3 tenths. I'm not saying it's impossible. But if you allow for the fact that Vettel might have improved, you also have to allow for the fact that Hamilton dropped a tenth in his final sector and the two might possibly cancel each other out. All we know for sure is that the gap was (just under) 2 tenths and if we imagine more positive scenarios for Ferrari then surely we have to do the same for Mercedes?


The gap was 0.270 taking into account Ferrari and Mercedes best sectors. Both Mercedes drivers had the chance to improve on their second runs, Kimi couldn't complete a sector 3 or Vettel a second run. So Ferrari was nearly 3 tenths ahead without the chance of of improving.

You are saying Vettel would have matched his first time and Kimi would have lost 0.267 in the last sector. Anyway to me it's pretty obvious.

Given that Kimi and Seb showed different pace in different areas of the track, it's possible that they were running different setups. In which case it's not a foregone conclusion that you can just add their fastest sectors together to produce a theoretical lap. The only gap we know of was 0.179s and we also know that Hamilton dropped a tenth off his best S3 time, which makes that particular gap less than a tenth. Now it's possible that either Vettel or Kimi may have been able to go quicker on their final runs, but given that nobody else showed significant improvement that's not a dead cert either, certainly not enough to confidently predict xx tenths.

I'm saying we can't predict what Kimi might have done in the final sector without having any data to work off.


You have any proof regarding different setups? To lose 0.267 in one corner is alot of time to get to your required 2 tenths and that also requires Vettel to not improve. The trend is Vettel would improve as even Kimi was smashing Vettels and Hamilton's time at sector 2, Vettel said he was hitting purple sectors and he had nothing to lose a bit like both Mercedes drivers had nothing to lose regarding RB.

When Kimi is beating Hamilton then you know the car is alot better.


I think that's a fair enough comment based on the last few years form at least and I think the Ferrari has a healthy advantage but I'm not convinced Kimi is showing the last few years type of form.

For whatever reason he seems pretty quick and without the errors arguably quicker than Seb. So either Seb is having a nightmare for some reason or Kimi is showing some pace again which may make that statement a little less true. If you add in Lewis underperforming a bit (apparently anyway) then it becomes even more questionable.

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PostPosted: Mon May 07, 2018 1:16 pm 
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Zoue wrote:
F1_Ernie wrote:
Zoue wrote:
F1_Ernie wrote:
Zoue wrote:
It absolutely could have been 3 tenths. I'm not saying it's impossible. But if you allow for the fact that Vettel might have improved, you also have to allow for the fact that Hamilton dropped a tenth in his final sector and the two might possibly cancel each other out. All we know for sure is that the gap was (just under) 2 tenths and if we imagine more positive scenarios for Ferrari then surely we have to do the same for Mercedes?


The gap was 0.270 taking into account Ferrari and Mercedes best sectors. Both Mercedes drivers had the chance to improve on their second runs, Kimi couldn't complete a sector 3 or Vettel a second run. So Ferrari was nearly 3 tenths ahead without the chance of of improving.

You are saying Vettel would have matched his first time and Kimi would have lost 0.267 in the last sector. Anyway to me it's pretty obvious.

Given that Kimi and Seb showed different pace in different areas of the track, it's possible that they were running different setups. In which case it's not a foregone conclusion that you can just add their fastest sectors together to produce a theoretical lap. The only gap we know of was 0.179s and we also know that Hamilton dropped a tenth off his best S3 time, which makes that particular gap less than a tenth. Now it's possible that either Vettel or Kimi may have been able to go quicker on their final runs, but given that nobody else showed significant improvement that's not a dead cert either, certainly not enough to confidently predict xx tenths.

I'm saying we can't predict what Kimi might have done in the final sector without having any data to work off.


You have any proof regarding different setups? To lose 0.267 in one corner is alot of time to get to your required 2 tenths and that also requires Vettel to not improve. The trend is Vettel would improve as even Kimi was smashing Vettels and Hamilton's time at sector 2, Vettel said he was hitting purple sectors and he had nothing to lose a bit like both Mercedes drivers had nothing to lose regarding RB.

When Kimi is beating Hamilton then you know the car is alot better.

I don't which is why I said it's absolutely possible. I'm open to the idea that it's 2-3 tenths, but what I'm arguing against is the assumption that it must be so. And in previous laps Kimi had dropped 3 tenths to Hamilton in the final sector - it's more than simply a corner!

I can't agree with your final statement. Kimi is close to beating Vettel on one lap pace so far this year and we can't blame that on the car. I don't think we can make an assumption on how good the car is purely from that


Lets agree to disagree :thumbup:

Some people do make assumptions that the Mercedes must be quicker because Bottas has been beating Hamilton and Hamilton is generally quicker than Bottas. I just make the same assumption regarding Vettel because I feel the same with him and Kimi, both drivers are the best and have a gap to their teammates but can be beaten on some weekends.

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PostPosted: Mon May 07, 2018 1:43 pm 
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Lotus49 wrote:
F1_Ernie wrote:
Zoue wrote:
F1_Ernie wrote:
Zoue wrote:
It absolutely could have been 3 tenths. I'm not saying it's impossible. But if you allow for the fact that Vettel might have improved, you also have to allow for the fact that Hamilton dropped a tenth in his final sector and the two might possibly cancel each other out. All we know for sure is that the gap was (just under) 2 tenths and if we imagine more positive scenarios for Ferrari then surely we have to do the same for Mercedes?


The gap was 0.270 taking into account Ferrari and Mercedes best sectors. Both Mercedes drivers had the chance to improve on their second runs, Kimi couldn't complete a sector 3 or Vettel a second run. So Ferrari was nearly 3 tenths ahead without the chance of of improving.

You are saying Vettel would have matched his first time and Kimi would have lost 0.267 in the last sector. Anyway to me it's pretty obvious.

Given that Kimi and Seb showed different pace in different areas of the track, it's possible that they were running different setups. In which case it's not a foregone conclusion that you can just add their fastest sectors together to produce a theoretical lap. The only gap we know of was 0.179s and we also know that Hamilton dropped a tenth off his best S3 time, which makes that particular gap less than a tenth. Now it's possible that either Vettel or Kimi may have been able to go quicker on their final runs, but given that nobody else showed significant improvement that's not a dead cert either, certainly not enough to confidently predict xx tenths.

I'm saying we can't predict what Kimi might have done in the final sector without having any data to work off.


You have any proof regarding different setups? To lose 0.267 in one corner is alot of time to get to your required 2 tenths and that also requires Vettel to not improve. The trend is Vettel would improve as even Kimi was smashing Vettels and Hamilton's time at sector 2, Vettel said he was hitting purple sectors and he had nothing to lose a bit like both Mercedes drivers had nothing to lose regarding RB.

When Kimi is beating Hamilton then you know the car is alot better.


I think that's a fair enough comment based on the last few years form at least and I think the Ferrari has a healthy advantage but I'm not convinced Kimi is showing the last few years type of form.

For whatever reason he seems pretty quick and without the errors arguably quicker than Seb. So either Seb is having a nightmare for some reason or Kimi is showing some pace again which may make that statement a little less true. If you add in Lewis underperforming a bit (apparently anyway) then it becomes even more questionable.

I'd suggest it's not down to Vettel having a nightmare. Vettel's usually quite open about not being comfortable and so far he's not said anything to suggest that might be the case. It seems more likely that Kimi is managing to exploit the car's one lap pace, if not necessarily the race pace


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PostPosted: Mon May 07, 2018 1:57 pm 
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F1_Ernie wrote:
Zoue wrote:
F1_Ernie wrote:
Zoue wrote:
F1_Ernie wrote:
The gap was 0.270 taking into account Ferrari and Mercedes best sectors. Both Mercedes drivers had the chance to improve on their second runs, Kimi couldn't complete a sector 3 or Vettel a second run. So Ferrari was nearly 3 tenths ahead without the chance of of improving.

You are saying Vettel would have matched his first time and Kimi would have lost 0.267 in the last sector. Anyway to me it's pretty obvious.

Given that Kimi and Seb showed different pace in different areas of the track, it's possible that they were running different setups. In which case it's not a foregone conclusion that you can just add their fastest sectors together to produce a theoretical lap. The only gap we know of was 0.179s and we also know that Hamilton dropped a tenth off his best S3 time, which makes that particular gap less than a tenth. Now it's possible that either Vettel or Kimi may have been able to go quicker on their final runs, but given that nobody else showed significant improvement that's not a dead cert either, certainly not enough to confidently predict xx tenths.

I'm saying we can't predict what Kimi might have done in the final sector without having any data to work off.


You have any proof regarding different setups? To lose 0.267 in one corner is alot of time to get to your required 2 tenths and that also requires Vettel to not improve. The trend is Vettel would improve as even Kimi was smashing Vettels and Hamilton's time at sector 2, Vettel said he was hitting purple sectors and he had nothing to lose a bit like both Mercedes drivers had nothing to lose regarding RB.

When Kimi is beating Hamilton then you know the car is alot better.

I don't which is why I said it's absolutely possible. I'm open to the idea that it's 2-3 tenths, but what I'm arguing against is the assumption that it must be so. And in previous laps Kimi had dropped 3 tenths to Hamilton in the final sector - it's more than simply a corner!

I can't agree with your final statement. Kimi is close to beating Vettel on one lap pace so far this year and we can't blame that on the car. I don't think we can make an assumption on how good the car is purely from that


Lets agree to disagree :thumbup:

Some people do make assumptions that the Mercedes must be quicker because Bottas has been beating Hamilton and Hamilton is generally quicker than Bottas. I just make the same assumption regarding Vettel because I feel the same with him and Kimi, both drivers are the best and have a gap to their teammates but can be beaten on some weekends.

yep fair enough! :thumbup: :)


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PostPosted: Mon May 07, 2018 2:25 pm 
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Zoue wrote:
Lotus49 wrote:
F1_Ernie wrote:
Zoue wrote:
F1_Ernie wrote:

The gap was 0.270 taking into account Ferrari and Mercedes best sectors. Both Mercedes drivers had the chance to improve on their second runs, Kimi couldn't complete a sector 3 or Vettel a second run. So Ferrari was nearly 3 tenths ahead without the chance of of improving.

You are saying Vettel would have matched his first time and Kimi would have lost 0.267 in the last sector. Anyway to me it's pretty obvious.

Given that Kimi and Seb showed different pace in different areas of the track, it's possible that they were running different setups. In which case it's not a foregone conclusion that you can just add their fastest sectors together to produce a theoretical lap. The only gap we know of was 0.179s and we also know that Hamilton dropped a tenth off his best S3 time, which makes that particular gap less than a tenth. Now it's possible that either Vettel or Kimi may have been able to go quicker on their final runs, but given that nobody else showed significant improvement that's not a dead cert either, certainly not enough to confidently predict xx tenths.

I'm saying we can't predict what Kimi might have done in the final sector without having any data to work off.


You have any proof regarding different setups? To lose 0.267 in one corner is alot of time to get to your required 2 tenths and that also requires Vettel to not improve. The trend is Vettel would improve as even Kimi was smashing Vettels and Hamilton's time at sector 2, Vettel said he was hitting purple sectors and he had nothing to lose a bit like both Mercedes drivers had nothing to lose regarding RB.

When Kimi is beating Hamilton then you know the car is alot better.


I think that's a fair enough comment based on the last few years form at least and I think the Ferrari has a healthy advantage but I'm not convinced Kimi is showing the last few years type of form.

For whatever reason he seems pretty quick and without the errors arguably quicker than Seb. So either Seb is having a nightmare for some reason or Kimi is showing some pace again which may make that statement a little less true. If you add in Lewis underperforming a bit (apparently anyway) then it becomes even more questionable.

I'd suggest it's not down to Vettel having a nightmare. Vettel's usually quite open about not being comfortable and so far he's not said anything to suggest that might be the case. It seems more likely that Kimi is managing to exploit the car's one lap pace, if not necessarily the race pace


Would a driver suggest he is struggling when he is getting 3 poles on the bounce and it should have been 3 front rows. Vettel seems quite happy at the moment even with all the bad luck and many suggest that's because he knows he has the fastest car.
For all we know Vettel might not be getting the most out the car like many suggest Hamilton is struggling but at the same maybe Kimi is his best form for years. I just look back at all the previous years and wonder has Kimi really changed or is it more likely Vettels level has gone done a touch.

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PostPosted: Mon May 07, 2018 3:02 pm 
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F1_Ernie wrote:
Zoue wrote:
Lotus49 wrote:
F1_Ernie wrote:
Zoue wrote:
Given that Kimi and Seb showed different pace in different areas of the track, it's possible that they were running different setups. In which case it's not a foregone conclusion that you can just add their fastest sectors together to produce a theoretical lap. The only gap we know of was 0.179s and we also know that Hamilton dropped a tenth off his best S3 time, which makes that particular gap less than a tenth. Now it's possible that either Vettel or Kimi may have been able to go quicker on their final runs, but given that nobody else showed significant improvement that's not a dead cert either, certainly not enough to confidently predict xx tenths.

I'm saying we can't predict what Kimi might have done in the final sector without having any data to work off.


You have any proof regarding different setups? To lose 0.267 in one corner is alot of time to get to your required 2 tenths and that also requires Vettel to not improve. The trend is Vettel would improve as even Kimi was smashing Vettels and Hamilton's time at sector 2, Vettel said he was hitting purple sectors and he had nothing to lose a bit like both Mercedes drivers had nothing to lose regarding RB.

When Kimi is beating Hamilton then you know the car is alot better.


I think that's a fair enough comment based on the last few years form at least and I think the Ferrari has a healthy advantage but I'm not convinced Kimi is showing the last few years type of form.

For whatever reason he seems pretty quick and without the errors arguably quicker than Seb. So either Seb is having a nightmare for some reason or Kimi is showing some pace again which may make that statement a little less true. If you add in Lewis underperforming a bit (apparently anyway) then it becomes even more questionable.

I'd suggest it's not down to Vettel having a nightmare. Vettel's usually quite open about not being comfortable and so far he's not said anything to suggest that might be the case. It seems more likely that Kimi is managing to exploit the car's one lap pace, if not necessarily the race pace


Would a driver suggest he is struggling when he is getting 3 poles on the bounce and it should have been 3 front rows. Vettel seems quite happy at the moment even with all the bad luck and many suggest that's because he knows he has the fastest car.
For all we know Vettel might not be getting the most out the car like many suggest Hamilton is struggling but at the same maybe Kimi is his best form for years. I just look back at all the previous years and wonder has Kimi really changed or is it more likely Vettels level has gone done a touch.

well I would absolutely agree that Kimi has not changed. But let's face it, it's not exactly a secret that he is perhaps the most car-sensitive driver out there, so it's not that hard to imagine that this year's Ferrari actually suits him for once.


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PostPosted: Mon May 07, 2018 3:33 pm 
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F1_Ernie wrote:

Would a driver suggest he is struggling when he is getting 3 poles on the bounce and it should have been 3 front rows. Vettel seems quite happy at the moment even with all the bad luck and many suggest that's because he knows he has the fastest car.
For all we know Vettel might not be getting the most out the car like many suggest Hamilton is struggling but at the same maybe Kimi is his best form for years. I just look back at all the previous years and wonder has Kimi really changed or is it more likely Vettels level has gone done a touch.


Vettels 1 lap pace has always gone up and down all through his career.

In 2009,2011, 2013 he thrashed Webber in the 16-2 type range.
2010 and 2012 it was more 12-8 range.

The same with Kimi, 15-2 and 17-2 in 2015 and 2017. But 10-10 in 2016. This year seems more like a 2016 type year, but its early days.

Those numbers are from memory but they are pretty close to reality. I wouldn't say Vettel has gone down at all, 2017 was arguably his best ever year in qualifying. It is just he naturally fluctuates or he stays exactly the same and ALL his team mates fluctuate. It is likely a bit of both. Kimi has gained about 0.3 of qualifying pace on him since last year and I think it would be pretty presumptuous to put that entirely down to Kimi given Vettels previous year fluctuations.


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PostPosted: Mon May 07, 2018 4:32 pm 
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Zoue wrote:
I'd suggest it's not down to Vettel having a nightmare. Vettel's usually quite open about not being comfortable and so far he's not said anything to suggest that might be the case. It seems more likely that Kimi is managing to exploit the car's one lap pace, if not necessarily the race pace


:?: http://www.skysports.com/f1/news/12433/ ... ian-gp-win


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PostPosted: Mon May 07, 2018 5:55 pm 
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davidheath461 wrote:
Zoue wrote:
I'd suggest it's not down to Vettel having a nightmare. Vettel's usually quite open about not being comfortable and so far he's not said anything to suggest that might be the case. It seems more likely that Kimi is managing to exploit the car's one lap pace, if not necessarily the race pace


:?: http://www.skysports.com/f1/news/12433/ ... ian-gp-win

and he was visibly off the pace there, which goes to the heart of my point. Since Ferrari have turned things around he's not said anything negative, has he.


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PostPosted: Mon May 07, 2018 6:24 pm 
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Zoue wrote:
davidheath461 wrote:
Zoue wrote:
I'd suggest it's not down to Vettel having a nightmare. Vettel's usually quite open about not being comfortable and so far he's not said anything to suggest that might be the case. It seems more likely that Kimi is managing to exploit the car's one lap pace, if not necessarily the race pace


:?: http://www.skysports.com/f1/news/12433/ ... ian-gp-win

and he was visibly off the pace there, which goes to the heart of my point. Since Ferrari have turned things around he's not said anything negative, has he.


Yes, that's textbook driver psychology. If they are not winning, then they will say they are not comfortable with the car, and vice versa.

No driver who got pole position has said afterwards that they were not comfortable with the car.


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PostPosted: Tue May 08, 2018 9:01 am 
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davidheath461 wrote:
Zoue wrote:
davidheath461 wrote:
Zoue wrote:
I'd suggest it's not down to Vettel having a nightmare. Vettel's usually quite open about not being comfortable and so far he's not said anything to suggest that might be the case. It seems more likely that Kimi is managing to exploit the car's one lap pace, if not necessarily the race pace


:?: http://www.skysports.com/f1/news/12433/ ... ian-gp-win

and he was visibly off the pace there, which goes to the heart of my point. Since Ferrari have turned things around he's not said anything negative, has he.


Yes, that's textbook driver psychology. If they are not winning, then they will say they are not comfortable with the car, and vice versa.

No driver who got pole position has said afterwards that they were not comfortable with the car.

so you're making assumptions based on amateur psychology diagnosis? Do you actually have any evidence he's struggling?


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PostPosted: Tue May 08, 2018 11:23 am 
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Zoue wrote:
davidheath461 wrote:
Zoue wrote:
davidheath461 wrote:
Zoue wrote:
I'd suggest it's not down to Vettel having a nightmare. Vettel's usually quite open about not being comfortable and so far he's not said anything to suggest that might be the case. It seems more likely that Kimi is managing to exploit the car's one lap pace, if not necessarily the race pace


:?: http://www.skysports.com/f1/news/12433/ ... ian-gp-win

and he was visibly off the pace there, which goes to the heart of my point. Since Ferrari have turned things around he's not said anything negative, has he.


Yes, that's textbook driver psychology. If they are not winning, then they will say they are not comfortable with the car, and vice versa.

No driver who got pole position has said afterwards that they were not comfortable with the car.

so you're making assumptions based on amateur psychology diagnosis? Do you actually have any evidence he's struggling?

The lap times?

He is stuggling over 1 lap, there is no other way to interpret it. Kimi Raikkonen is 38 years old and clearly a number 2, Kimi’s form is historically up and down yes but even at his highest up - he hasn’t been strong over 1 lap since 2003-2005 on Michelin tyres at Mclaren.

Vettel is getting away with not being great over 1 lap as he is in the best qualifying car now and Kimi keeps making errors but Kimi will get it right eventually. He has had the pace in 3 out of 4 qualifying sessions to beat him.

Being under par over 1 lap can you lose you the title. It cost Kimi the title in 2008. He had the best race pace of anybody that year but due to poor qualifying was usually stacked in traffic. Vettel is safe for now, but if Mercedes make a step then he could be starting quite a few races 3rd/4th which generally means no chance to win unless you make places off the line or get lucky.


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PostPosted: Tue May 08, 2018 11:36 am 
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Johnson wrote:
Zoue wrote:
davidheath461 wrote:
Zoue wrote:
davidheath461 wrote:

and he was visibly off the pace there, which goes to the heart of my point. Since Ferrari have turned things around he's not said anything negative, has he.


Yes, that's textbook driver psychology. If they are not winning, then they will say they are not comfortable with the car, and vice versa.

No driver who got pole position has said afterwards that they were not comfortable with the car.

so you're making assumptions based on amateur psychology diagnosis? Do you actually have any evidence he's struggling?

The lap times?

He is stuggling over 1 lap, there is no other way to interpret it. Kimi Raikkonen is 38 years old and clearly a number 2, Kimi’s form is historically up and down yes but even at his highest up - he hasn’t been strong over 1 lap since 2003-2005 on Michelin tyres at Mclaren.

Vettel is getting away with not being great over 1 lap as he is in the best qualifying car now and Kimi keeps making errors but Kimi will get it right eventually. He has had the pace in 3 out of 4 qualifying sessions to beat him.

Being under par over 1 lap can you lose you the title. It cost Kimi the title in 2008. He had the best race pace of anybody that year but due to poor qualifying was usually stacked in traffic. Vettel is safe for now, but if Mercedes make a step then he could be starting quite a few races 3rd/4th which generally means no chance to win unless you make places off the line or get lucky.

BIB: that's absolutely untrue and it's absurd to attempt to pass off personal opinion as fact. There is another way to interpret it; it's just that you choose not to believe it. And it's fair enough to have that opinion, but not to try to pass it off as the only acceptable one.


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PostPosted: Tue May 08, 2018 4:41 pm 
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I am sorry if you interpreted that as my passing my opinion as fact. To me its clear that is my opinion.


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PostPosted: Tue May 08, 2018 6:04 pm 
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Johnson wrote:
I am sorry if you interpreted that as my passing my opinion as fact. To me its clear that is my opinion.

It certainly reads that way, but fair enough if that's not what you meant


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PostPosted: Tue May 08, 2018 6:32 pm 
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Johnson wrote:
F1_Ernie wrote:

Would a driver suggest he is struggling when he is getting 3 poles on the bounce and it should have been 3 front rows. Vettel seems quite happy at the moment even with all the bad luck and many suggest that's because he knows he has the fastest car.
For all we know Vettel might not be getting the most out the car like many suggest Hamilton is struggling but at the same maybe Kimi is his best form for years. I just look back at all the previous years and wonder has Kimi really changed or is it more likely Vettels level has gone done a touch.


Vettels 1 lap pace has always gone up and down all through his career.

In 2009,2011, 2013 he thrashed Webber in the 16-2 type range.
2010 and 2012 it was more 12-8 range.

The same with Kimi, 15-2 and 17-2 in 2015 and 2017. But 10-10 in 2016. This year seems more like a 2016 type year, but its early days.

Those numbers are from memory but they are pretty close to reality. I wouldn't say Vettel has gone down at all, 2017 was arguably his best ever year in qualifying. It is just he naturally fluctuates or he stays exactly the same and ALL his team mates fluctuate. It is likely a bit of both. Kimi has gained about 0.3 of qualifying pace on him since last year and I think it would be pretty presumptuous to put that entirely down to Kimi given Vettels previous year fluctuations.

It doesn't take much effort to actually get those those numbers correct especially if you claim them to be reality. It was 14-5 or 14-4 if we exclude Malaysia.


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PostPosted: Tue May 08, 2018 7:15 pm 
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motorfinger wrote:
Johnson wrote:
F1_Ernie wrote:

Would a driver suggest he is struggling when he is getting 3 poles on the bounce and it should have been 3 front rows. Vettel seems quite happy at the moment even with all the bad luck and many suggest that's because he knows he has the fastest car.
For all we know Vettel might not be getting the most out the car like many suggest Hamilton is struggling but at the same maybe Kimi is his best form for years. I just look back at all the previous years and wonder has Kimi really changed or is it more likely Vettels level has gone done a touch.


Vettels 1 lap pace has always gone up and down all through his career.

In 2009,2011, 2013 he thrashed Webber in the 16-2 type range.
2010 and 2012 it was more 12-8 range.

The same with Kimi, 15-2 and 17-2 in 2015 and 2017. But 10-10 in 2016. This year seems more like a 2016 type year, but its early days.

Those numbers are from memory but they are pretty close to reality. I wouldn't say Vettel has gone down at all, 2017 was arguably his best ever year in qualifying. It is just he naturally fluctuates or he stays exactly the same and ALL his team mates fluctuate. It is likely a bit of both. Kimi has gained about 0.3 of qualifying pace on him since last year and I think it would be pretty presumptuous to put that entirely down to Kimi given Vettels previous year fluctuations.

It doesn't take much effort to actually get those those numbers correct especially if you claim them to be reality. It was 14-5 or 14-4 if we exclude Malaysia.

It was 15-4 in 2015 and 15-5 in 2017.


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PostPosted: Wed May 09, 2018 2:42 pm 
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Kimi did it twice in 2015 or four times if you include the 2 races Vettel had PU problem and qualified way down the order.

2017, I did not realise Kimi was as high as 4 times.


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PostPosted: Wed May 09, 2018 5:25 pm 
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in Silverstone, Abu Dhabi, and Monza so three times in 2015.


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PostPosted: Thu May 10, 2018 8:23 am 
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Johnson wrote:
Being under par over 1 lap can you lose you the title. It cost Kimi the title in 2008. He had the best race pace of anybody that year but due to poor qualifying was usually stacked in traffic.
It wasn't "being under par over 1 lap" that cost Kimi the title, it was driving a car that made it impossible for him to switch on the tyres for that 1 lap. While the reason for that is his driving style, or skill set, it all begins and ends with having the right car. And that goes for every driver up and down the grid.

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PostPosted: Thu May 10, 2018 9:54 am 
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Fiki wrote:
Johnson wrote:
Being under par over 1 lap can you lose you the title. It cost Kimi the title in 2008. He had the best race pace of anybody that year but due to poor qualifying was usually stacked in traffic.
It wasn't "being under par over 1 lap" that cost Kimi the title, it was driving a car that made it impossible for him to switch on the tyres for that 1 lap. While the reason for that is his driving style, or skill set, it all begins and ends with having the right car. And that goes for every driver up and down the grid.

yeah, this just reinforces the idea that Kimi's success is heavily related to how he can get the tyres to work. The Michelins suited him down to the ground, as he didn't have to worry about getting them into their performance window. And the Ferrari is pretty good at switching on the tyres initially, which means he can just attack in qualifying, but once again he struggles with race pace compared to Vettel as he's simply no good at keeping the tyres in their operating window. It's a fairly straightforward explanation for why he's suddenly qualifying much closer to Vettel


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PostPosted: Thu May 10, 2018 3:54 pm 
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motorfinger wrote:
in Silverstone, Abu Dhabi, and Monza so three times in 2015.


Didn't Vettel have PU issue in Abu Dhabi and qualify P16?


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PostPosted: Sun May 13, 2018 3:07 pm 
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Complete domination by Mercedes today. Ferrari has never had that kind of advantage this season in any race.


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PostPosted: Sun May 13, 2018 3:15 pm 
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KingVoid wrote:
Complete domination by Mercedes today. Ferrari has never had that kind of advantage this season in any race.


You can change your points system. Not every 10>9 is the same.


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PostPosted: Sun May 13, 2018 3:19 pm 
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Invade wrote:
KingVoid wrote:
Complete domination by Mercedes today. Ferrari has never had that kind of advantage this season in any race.


You can change your points system. Not every 10>9 is the same.

I think Mercedes were unquestionably much better this weekend, though. Perhaps not dominant in qualifying, but untouchable in the race


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