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 Post subject: Re: Silly Season 2019
PostPosted: Fri Sep 07, 2018 2:04 pm 
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UnlikeUday wrote:
Zoue wrote:
mikeyg123 wrote:
Zoue wrote:
pokerman wrote:
Mercedes may have to consider releasing him from his contract if they can't find him a seat in F1.

yes I thought I'd read somewhere they were considering doing exactly that but can't find it now. Would seem a shame that a talent would be denied a seat because of contractual wrangling


It would be a shame if Ocon can't find a seat because of his Merc commitments so Merc release him after all the seats have been filled.

here it is

http://www.skysports.com/f1/news/12433/11482634/esteban-ocon-could-be-released-from-mercedes-to-help-f1-2019-bid


But most doors are closed already for Ocon. Apart from Williams, can we expect Ocon to be considered at Haas or Sauber?

Toro Rosso? Horner has said he won't consider him because of his Mercedes ties but otherwise would


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 Post subject: Re: Silly Season 2019
PostPosted: Fri Sep 07, 2018 2:07 pm 
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Lotus49 wrote:
pokerman wrote:
Lotus49 wrote:
pokerman wrote:
Lotus49 wrote:
Much of a muchness using your figures though,right? We had a season to watch Bottas,Perez and Hulk fight in comparable cars and I don't think too many felt Bottas came out on top tbh. Fair enough about it being closer between Ocon and Perez than Max-Dan but the point still stands that there are more variables like traffic to get in the way of a team mate battle than there is on the front rows so being 11-3 up is still impressive, you'd have to think he'd convert more with less obstacles to get in his way.

I think Mercedes could've waited as long as Ferrari have tbh, I don't see how that's unfair on Bottas. I think Ocon will beat Perez but has shown enough already for me considering his age. Perez and Hulk have been the benchmarks for a while and he just looks quicker already. They could've seen Bottas take a bit of a dip again like last year which also might have gone in Ocon's favour but I agree at the time he signed he was driving well so there was no need to be on the lookout for a change.

It is a difficult position for Mercedes but I still have little sympathy. If they're not any better than Bottas then I don't think it's the end of the world to cut them and it can be someone else's problem, if one is better then put him in the team.

I don't understand why Perez scoring 16 points more than Bottas underpins him as being better than Bottas, Perez's season was underpinned by having 2 podiums although Bottas also had 1 podium, in terms of consistency however in the head to head Bottas beat Perez 11-8, also lets not forget that Bottas out scored the Hulk.

Ocon being better than Perez I just don't see it, I see two well matched drivers, also regarding qualifying I guess I have my own methods in compiling the data, I have it 9-4 to Ocon with 4 of those for Ocon being less than a tenth of a second, they are the second closest pairing on the grid.

I don't believe what Mercedes did with signing Bottas was a problem for Ocon at the time, it took two things to happen in order to make it a problem, first Ricciardo took Ocon's seat at Renault and then the Strolls bought Force India for Lance and Ocon's back up seat is now in jeopardy.

Going forward I would agree Mercedes need to make a decision for 2020, Bottas or Ocon, if not Ocon then they need to cut him free because the main obstacle for Ocon finding seats is that teams don't want to sign him on loan from Mercedes.


So he should beat Hulk and be 11-8 up against Perez in a better car more often than not (Although it was close several times). McLaren were back there so I followed it closely, both Hulk and Perez outdrove Bottas in 2016 for my money, the amount of points is actually quite big when you're only generally operating for positions 7-10.

They're (Ocon and Perez) pretty close no question but if they tend to fall one way more often than not then they're better and that's going to Ocon so far. I've mentioned some of the reasons it's harder to convert qualifying advantages in the midfield pack so it being a lot closer on a Sunday is understandable.

I just think they moved too early, they didn't really give Ocon enough time to impress against Perez this year before extending Bottas so I have little sympathy for them but plenty for Ocon.

I've been through this a year or 2 back the Williams was not the better car, it was better in the first part of the season and that's what people at the time zoned in on, the Force India was the better car in the second half of the season, the trail of bread crumbs to follow is to see which cars came out on top in qualifying, this being a season were Bottas dominated Massa in qualifying, so let's not be saying that Bottas was poor in qualifying.


It was better on balance, it was quicker in a few (Monza,Brazil and Malaysia) in the back half and near equal as you can get at some others which when combined with the pre Monaco form gives it the edge over the year imo. It was pretty close though.

Massa was awful so while I don't think Bottas was poor, far from it, but he didn't need to be great to beat him. You could throw a blanket over the three (Hulk,Perez and Bottas) of them most of the time so fair enough if you saw it the other way but I think Perez and Hulk were a bit ahead over the year.

I don't think it's really fair to say one driver was awful in order to take credit from another driver who beat him comprehensible, in particular a driver 1 point away from being a WDC and who matched Kimi, but lost to Bottas every season.

Here is the qualifying in respect to Williams:-

Australia 0.109 (1-0)
Bahrain 0.673 (2-0)
China 0.569 (3-0)
Sochi 0.576 (4-0)
Spain 0.260 (5-0)
Monaco -0.336 (5-1)
Canada 0.282 (6-1)
Baku 0.347 (7-1)
Austria 0.346 (8-1)*
Silverstone 0.292 (9-1)
Hungary -0.359 (9-2)
Germany 0.020 (10-2)*
Spa -0.205 (10-3)
Italy 0.426 (11-3)
Singapore -0.037 (11-4)
Malayasia -0.103 (11-5)
Japan 0.115 (11-6)
Austin -0.488 (11-7)
Mexico -0.221 (11-8)
Brazil -0.089 (11-9)
Abu Dhabi -0.357 (11-10)

*A Williams managed a faster lap time but a Force India started higher on the grid so 12 times out of 21 a Force India was higher on the grid.

The average gap was 0.076s in favour of Williams which wouldn't be too far away from how much quicker I would view Bottas from Hulk/Perez using driver cross references so you couldn't get the peak performance of the cars much closer.

Credit to Perez for scoring the most points but that was due to his ability to have 2/3 higher scoring races like he tends to do most seasons but like I say head to head Bottas beat Perez 11-8 and scored more points than the Hulk.

Then comparing Perez and Ocon could you have 2 drivers that were more evenly matched, Ocon edging it in qualifying but Perez seemingly maybe a bit quicker in the races. Last time out was interesting Ocon out qualified Perez by 3 tenths and started 8 places further up on the grid, yet despite Perez damaging his car on the opening lap he managed to finish close behind Ocon in the race.

Ocon is a top 10 driver but presently not a step up on Bottas and I would venture slightly slower in qualifying?

Having said that given his age and perhaps ability to improve it wouldn't surprise me if he was to replace Bottas in 2020 but then again it might still depend on how Bottas performs in 2019?

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 Post subject: Re: Silly Season 2019
PostPosted: Fri Sep 07, 2018 2:16 pm 
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@Zoue - The Toro Rosso wouldn't be a bad choice considering their alliance with Red Bull would be closer with the sharing of certain parts a la Ferrari & Haas.

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 Post subject: Re: Silly Season 2019
PostPosted: Fri Sep 07, 2018 2:17 pm 
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Jezza13 wrote:
pokerman wrote:
mikeyg123 wrote:
Jezza13 wrote:
Zoue wrote:
a lot of doors closing on Ocon due to his Mercedes connection, it seems

https://www.motorsport.com/f1/news/toro-rosso-ocon-horner-mercedes/3172433/?nrt=54


I've said many times I dislike these YDP's and this is one reason why.

Many attempt to justify that YDP's put the emphasis on driver talent rather than the drivers wallet yet the sports on the verge of losing on of it's brightest talents exactly because of YDP's.

Merc don't look like they'll release Ocon to free him up to drive for a competitor and competitors won't hire him because he's part of the Merc stable so it looks like it'll be chow for now Estaban.

Meanwhile we have drivers like Stroll, Sirotkin & Ericsonn on the grid for no other reason than they come with a fat wallet, Brendan Hartley in TR and possibly Danii Kvyat coming back to that team because RB's YDP is a little light ATM and they won't go with anyone outside that program.

The sport has missed out on Robin Frijn's and Robert Wickens who many believe fully deserved a seat in F1 and now there's a possibility that Ocon might lose his seat, at least for a couple of seasons, due to his affiliation with Merc.


Ocon said himself his career was over after his F3 championship win until Wolff and Merc stepped in so without young driver programmes Ocon wouldn't have made GP3 let alone F1.

I agree it's not an ideal situation but without them the only drivers making F1 right now would be the likes of Stroll and Markelov.

Yeah criticising YDP's is ridiculous, this is how drivers without money find themselves in F1 which includes the likes of the soon to be 5 time WDC whether that be Hamilton or Vettel.


No I don't believe it is ridiculous. You can't say Vettel or Hamilton would not have made it to F1 with the help of a YDP. I don't believe the talent in F1 was any poorer prior to the advent of YDP's.

I see a YDP only as a way for teams to corral talent then sieve them out over time until they're left with the gold & the others can fight for the dross. Maybe i'm getting cynical as I get older but I don't believe for 1 minute its simply about fostering young talent. It's about me signing the best young drivers up to heavily lopsided contracts so you can't and once I sign them then i'll decide if I need them or not.

I wonder how the teams would react if Liberty or the FIA banned YDP's and instead offered to fund the careers of young talent themselves, free from the shackles of contractual obligations to teams, as they move through the lower formulae and then stop the funding either when the driver signs their first F1 contract, fails to meet KPI's or looks unlikely to progress any further?

I think that's a better alternative than the teams controlling the futures of the F1 stars of tomorrow.

No I can't say that either Hamilton or Vettel would not have made it into F1 without YDP's, Hamilton joined when he was 13, Vettel I believe was even younger?

More worrying is that you can't say that they would, good luck to the council estate kid finding the millions of pounds needed to fund his career, Michael Schumacher, son of a brick layer, had his GP debut funded by Mercedes who ran him in sportcars.

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 Post subject: Re: Silly Season 2019
PostPosted: Fri Sep 07, 2018 2:18 pm 
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BMWSauber84 wrote:
Torro Rosso will surely have two seats available for next season. Hartley seems incredibly unlikely to be retained. Given the lack of Junior drivers from the RB programme who are ready, I imagine two out of Kvyat/Buemi/Vergne will fill the seats.

There is a chance Vandoorne could get in at Torro Rosso with his Honda experience, but his stock is low right now.

Hopefully Ocon gets a Williams drive. Ocon is a driver that a team like that can build around.

Vergne has already turned the STR seat down.

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 Post subject: Re: Silly Season 2019
PostPosted: Fri Sep 07, 2018 2:22 pm 
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UnlikeUday wrote:
Zoue wrote:
mikeyg123 wrote:
Zoue wrote:
pokerman wrote:
Mercedes may have to consider releasing him from his contract if they can't find him a seat in F1.

yes I thought I'd read somewhere they were considering doing exactly that but can't find it now. Would seem a shame that a talent would be denied a seat because of contractual wrangling


It would be a shame if Ocon can't find a seat because of his Merc commitments so Merc release him after all the seats have been filled.

here it is

http://www.skysports.com/f1/news/12433/11482634/esteban-ocon-could-be-released-from-mercedes-to-help-f1-2019-bid


But most doors are closed already for Ocon. Apart from Williams, can we expect Ocon to be considered at Haas or Sauber?

STR if it's not left too late.

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 Post subject: Re: Silly Season 2019
PostPosted: Fri Sep 07, 2018 2:34 pm 
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All this noise about Ocon is due to a lack of any announcement from Lance's father or the consortium as a whole regarding the team's near & distant future goals! If Lawrence is predominantly a better businessman more than being a father, he should realize Ocon is a way better bet for stability in the team & for the ongoing rapport with Checo.

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 Post subject: Re: Silly Season 2019
PostPosted: Fri Sep 07, 2018 2:42 pm 
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UnlikeUday wrote:
All this noise about Ocon is due to a lack of any announcement from Lance's father or the consortium as a whole regarding the team's near & distant future goals! If Lawrence is predominantly a better businessman more than being a father, he should realize Ocon is a way better bet for stability in the team & for the ongoing rapport with Checo.

He bought the team for his son and it wouldn't be the first team he bought for Lance. The worry I would have as a teammate to Stroll is that the last team they bought in F3 didn't have equal cars.

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 Post subject: Re: Silly Season 2019
PostPosted: Fri Sep 07, 2018 2:42 pm 
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oops...

http://www.f1i.com/news/316431-elkann-jumps-gun-congratulates-leclerc-ferrari-drive.html


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 Post subject: Re: Silly Season 2019
PostPosted: Fri Sep 07, 2018 2:45 pm 
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Zoue wrote:

Yeah I'd already heard that, would that kind of confirm it?

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 Post subject: Re: Silly Season 2019
PostPosted: Fri Sep 07, 2018 2:48 pm 
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pokerman wrote:
UnlikeUday wrote:
All this noise about Ocon is due to a lack of any announcement from Lance's father or the consortium as a whole regarding the team's near & distant future goals! If Lawrence is predominantly a better businessman more than being a father, he should realize Ocon is a way better bet for stability in the team & for the ongoing rapport with Checo.

He bought the team for his son and it wouldn't be the first team he bought for Lance. The worry I would have as a teammate to Stroll is that the last team they bought in F3 didn't have equal cars.


If this scenario were to be replicated at Force India, whatever fanbase the team has earned in so many years will shrink to a minimum! Not that Lawrence would care but even I found become detached from the team.

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 Post subject: Re: Silly Season 2019
PostPosted: Fri Sep 07, 2018 2:59 pm 
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pokerman wrote:
Zoue wrote:

Yeah I'd already heard that, would that kind of confirm it?

I think so, yes.


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 Post subject: Re: Silly Season 2019
PostPosted: Fri Sep 07, 2018 7:14 pm 
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pokerman wrote:
UnlikeUday wrote:
But most doors are closed already for Ocon. Apart from Williams, can we expect Ocon to be considered at Haas or Sauber?

STR if it's not left too late.

Christian Horner says they're not even considering him.

"The crazy situation is you've got a driver like Ocon who might end up without a seat next year.

"If he was to be contractually free he'd be an obvious candidate for Toro Rosso.

"But Red Bull aren't going to invest in a Mercedes driver, understandably. And I wouldn't expect the same to happen the other way round."


Full article: https://www.autosport.com/f1/news/13855 ... on--horner

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 Post subject: Re: Silly Season 2019
PostPosted: Fri Sep 07, 2018 7:21 pm 
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Exediron wrote:
pokerman wrote:
UnlikeUday wrote:
But most doors are closed already for Ocon. Apart from Williams, can we expect Ocon to be considered at Haas or Sauber?

STR if it's not left too late.

Christian Horner says they're not even considering him.

"The crazy situation is you've got a driver like Ocon who might end up without a seat next year.

"If he was to be contractually free he'd be an obvious candidate for Toro Rosso.

"But Red Bull aren't going to invest in a Mercedes driver, understandably. And I wouldn't expect the same to happen the other way round."


Full article: https://www.autosport.com/f1/news/13855 ... on--horner

By too late, what Poker meant is Mercedes releasing Ocon. That's the news on the qouted link from Zoue.


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 Post subject: Re: Silly Season 2019
PostPosted: Sat Sep 08, 2018 3:19 am 
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Ocon will be losing out no much more as other drivers of his (Verstappen & Leclerc) will be in race winning cars already whereas he needs to find a space on the F1 grid, probably in a midfield car once again.

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 Post subject: Re: Silly Season 2019
PostPosted: Sat Sep 08, 2018 3:24 am 
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I honestly think Ocon will end up without a seat next year. :thumbdown: I wonder how far the Strolls think their money can get them...


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 Post subject: Re: Silly Season 2019
PostPosted: Sat Sep 08, 2018 4:31 am 
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pokerman wrote:
Jezza13 wrote:
pokerman wrote:
mikeyg123 wrote:
Jezza13 wrote:

I've said many times I dislike these YDP's and this is one reason why.

Many attempt to justify that YDP's put the emphasis on driver talent rather than the drivers wallet yet the sports on the verge of losing on of it's brightest talents exactly because of YDP's.

Merc don't look like they'll release Ocon to free him up to drive for a competitor and competitors won't hire him because he's part of the Merc stable so it looks like it'll be chow for now Estaban.

Meanwhile we have drivers like Stroll, Sirotkin & Ericsonn on the grid for no other reason than they come with a fat wallet, Brendan Hartley in TR and possibly Danii Kvyat coming back to that team because RB's YDP is a little light ATM and they won't go with anyone outside that program.

The sport has missed out on Robin Frijn's and Robert Wickens who many believe fully deserved a seat in F1 and now there's a possibility that Ocon might lose his seat, at least for a couple of seasons, due to his affiliation with Merc.


Ocon said himself his career was over after his F3 championship win until Wolff and Merc stepped in so without young driver programmes Ocon wouldn't have made GP3 let alone F1.

I agree it's not an ideal situation but without them the only drivers making F1 right now would be the likes of Stroll and Markelov.

Yeah criticising YDP's is ridiculous, this is how drivers without money find themselves in F1 which includes the likes of the soon to be 5 time WDC whether that be Hamilton or Vettel.


No I don't believe it is ridiculous. You can't say Vettel or Hamilton would not have made it to F1 with the help of a YDP. I don't believe the talent in F1 was any poorer prior to the advent of YDP's.

I see a YDP only as a way for teams to corral talent then sieve them out over time until they're left with the gold & the others can fight for the dross. Maybe i'm getting cynical as I get older but I don't believe for 1 minute its simply about fostering young talent. It's about me signing the best young drivers up to heavily lopsided contracts so you can't and once I sign them then i'll decide if I need them or not.

I wonder how the teams would react if Liberty or the FIA banned YDP's and instead offered to fund the careers of young talent themselves, free from the shackles of contractual obligations to teams, as they move through the lower formulae and then stop the funding either when the driver signs their first F1 contract, fails to meet KPI's or looks unlikely to progress any further?

I think that's a better alternative than the teams controlling the futures of the F1 stars of tomorrow.

No I can't say that either Hamilton or Vettel would not have made it into F1 without YDP's, Hamilton joined when he was 13, Vettel I believe was even younger?

More worrying is that you can't say that they would, good luck to the council estate kid finding the millions of pounds needed to fund his career, Michael Schumacher, son of a brick layer, had his GP debut funded by Mercedes who ran him in sportcars.


I don't know what the council estates in your area are like poker but in my area most of the kids are flat out getting a half decent push bike let alone the thousands and thousand of dollars it takes to buy & maintain a competitive go kart to allow them to show their wares to the teams talent scouts.

Yeah Schumacher had a leg up from Mercedes. Vettel & Hamilton were part of YDP's, but the likes of Alonso, Raikonnen, Hakkinen, Villeneuve, Hill, Button & Rosberg all managed to win WDC's without the benefit of YDP's. They did it through hard work, raising capital, results, a good agent & a bit of luck, & yeah, maybe in the case of Villeneuve, Hill & Rosberg, their name helped but it certainly didn't win them a WDC. These are all drivers I would not class as average and as far as I know, Alonso, Hakkinen, Raikonnen & Button came from quite modest backgrounds.

In my 30 odd yrs of watching F1 i've never sat back after watching the above drivers or even Prost, Senna, Mansell, Piquet, Lauda, Keke Rosberg, Berger & Albereto for that matter and thought that'd it'd be a truly great sport if only they had decent drivers. The sport survived nicely prior to YDP's. Top young talent has, in almost all instances, found a way to get into F1 without the help of YDP's.

YDP's are just a way for teams to get young talent out of the reach of other teams & I cringe when teams roll out their holier than thou comments about fostering young talent. This Ocon situation only serves to highlight the fact the YDP's are just about me getting the best young driver signed up before you. This is just an example of where it's backfired. If it was all about getting the best drivers in F1, he'd be there in the place of any one of at least half a dozen drivers who are guaranteed a seat next year.

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 Post subject: Re: Silly Season 2019
PostPosted: Sat Sep 08, 2018 6:03 am 
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Jezza13 wrote:
I don't know what the council estates in your area are like poker but in my area most of the kids are flat out getting a half decent push bike let alone the thousands and thousand of dollars it takes to buy & maintain a competitive go kart to allow them to show their wares to the teams talent scouts.

Yeah Schumacher had a leg up from Mercedes. Vettel & Hamilton were part of YDP's, but the likes of Alonso, Raikonnen, Hakkinen, Villeneuve, Hill, Button & Rosberg all managed to win WDC's without the benefit of YDP's. They did it through hard work, raising capital, results, a good agent & a bit of luck, & yeah, maybe in the case of Villeneuve, Hill & Rosberg, their name helped but it certainly didn't win them a WDC. These are all drivers I would not class as average and as far as I know, Alonso, Hakkinen, Raikonnen & Button came from quite modest backgrounds.

In my 30 odd yrs of watching F1 i've never sat back after watching the above drivers or even Prost, Senna, Mansell, Piquet, Lauda, Keke Rosberg, Berger & Albereto for that matter and thought that'd it'd be a truly great sport if only they had decent drivers. The sport survived nicely prior to YDP's. Top young talent has, in almost all instances, found a way to get into F1 without the help of YDP's.

YDP's are just a way for teams to get young talent out of the reach of other teams & I cringe when teams roll out their holier than thou comments about fostering young talent. This Ocon situation only serves to highlight the fact the YDP's are just about me getting the best young driver signed up before you. This is just an example of where it's backfired. If it was all about getting the best drivers in F1, he'd be there in the place of any one of at least half a dozen drivers who are guaranteed a seat next year.


It's changed though now. You can't even do F2 unless you can find some funding from somewhere these days. It's not like how it used to be. It was always difficult but now it would be impossible for the likes of Ocon to make F1 without the YDP.


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 Post subject: Re: Silly Season 2019
PostPosted: Sat Sep 08, 2018 8:16 am 
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UnlikeUday wrote:
Ocon will be losing out no much more as other drivers of his (Verstappen & Leclerc) will be in race winning cars already whereas he needs to find a space on the F1 grid, probably in a midfield car once again.


Not necessarily. He may spend a year testing and then replace Bottas for 2020 - à la Alonso back then.


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 Post subject: Re: Silly Season 2019
PostPosted: Sat Sep 08, 2018 8:22 am 
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As much as it would be unfair for Ocon to be out of F1 next year, just to save his career, I don't think he should kick Bottas out and then leave Bottas in what possibly would be a similar situation. Mercedes know what to expect from Bottas. Although he hasn't been as strong recently, others may not see it, but I think the start to this season was clearly a bit better than the start to the previous. I don't think they will have signed him for another season while also implying there is an option for him to drive in 2020 too if they didn't think he was well worth having. It would only be worth getting Ocon if he looked to be significantly better than Bottas. That certainly isn't true yet. I personally think he's close but not quite as good as Bottas yet. And taking the risk of bring him into a new and big top team will take some time to get used to. Initially, I don't think he would be that close to Bottas. And at the moment, Mercedes have no need to change anything. I think it will be better that Mercedes make sure Ocon gets a year in another team that hopefully will be decent. Or they get him out of the contract so he has more choices at other teams. Hass would be a good move. They seem to be getting better every year.

It may seem unfair for Ocon that he's in the situation he is, as he is very easily good enough for F1. People think Williams would be a bad move. But it isn't all about the performance sometimes. Some drivers may be really happy just because of the feeling of being in the team. It has some really good history. Everything is changing next year at Williams. They may have lost a big sponsor, but will probably get another. They could potentially have a huge turn around like they did in 2014. We don't know. If Ocon is running out of options, I think he should consider Williams if they would take him. Lowe also will be with the team over the winter. He may have time to help design something significantly better than this year. I'm actually pretty confident about a Williams turn around next year. After a dreadful season in 2013, they managed it. Maybe not by as much, but I expect similar again somehow.


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 Post subject: Re: Silly Season 2019
PostPosted: Sat Sep 08, 2018 8:22 am 
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mikeyg123 wrote:
Jezza13 wrote:
I don't know what the council estates in your area are like poker but in my area most of the kids are flat out getting a half decent push bike let alone the thousands and thousand of dollars it takes to buy & maintain a competitive go kart to allow them to show their wares to the teams talent scouts.

Yeah Schumacher had a leg up from Mercedes. Vettel & Hamilton were part of YDP's, but the likes of Alonso, Raikonnen, Hakkinen, Villeneuve, Hill, Button & Rosberg all managed to win WDC's without the benefit of YDP's. They did it through hard work, raising capital, results, a good agent & a bit of luck, & yeah, maybe in the case of Villeneuve, Hill & Rosberg, their name helped but it certainly didn't win them a WDC. These are all drivers I would not class as average and as far as I know, Alonso, Hakkinen, Raikonnen & Button came from quite modest backgrounds.

In my 30 odd yrs of watching F1 i've never sat back after watching the above drivers or even Prost, Senna, Mansell, Piquet, Lauda, Keke Rosberg, Berger & Albereto for that matter and thought that'd it'd be a truly great sport if only they had decent drivers. The sport survived nicely prior to YDP's. Top young talent has, in almost all instances, found a way to get into F1 without the help of YDP's.

YDP's are just a way for teams to get young talent out of the reach of other teams & I cringe when teams roll out their holier than thou comments about fostering young talent. This Ocon situation only serves to highlight the fact the YDP's are just about me getting the best young driver signed up before you. This is just an example of where it's backfired. If it was all about getting the best drivers in F1, he'd be there in the place of any one of at least half a dozen drivers who are guaranteed a seat next year.


It's changed though now. You can't even do F2 unless you can find some funding from somewhere these days. It's not like how it used to be. It was always difficult but now it would be impossible for the likes of Ocon to make F1 without the YDP.


Well hasn't that pretty much always been the case that young drivers need a certain level of sponsorship to drive in the lower formulae? Even a young Senna was leaving the UK in his early days because further advancement in his career was dollar dependant.

It's not fair that good drivers miss out on getting to the top because their talent alone isn't enough but life in general isn't fair. Eventually anyway we're risking seeing more examples of good drivers missing out drives simply due to the fact that we'll have a traffic jamb of drivers lining up waiting to get into the limited number of available F1 seats.

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 Post subject: Re: Silly Season 2019
PostPosted: Sat Sep 08, 2018 2:43 pm 
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i wonder if haas will talk with kr, now that it seems he is out at ferrari?


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 Post subject: Re: Silly Season 2019
PostPosted: Sat Sep 08, 2018 7:24 pm 
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pokerman wrote:
Lotus49 wrote:
pokerman wrote:
Lotus49 wrote:
pokerman wrote:
I don't understand why Perez scoring 16 points more than Bottas underpins him as being better than Bottas, Perez's season was underpinned by having 2 podiums although Bottas also had 1 podium, in terms of consistency however in the head to head Bottas beat Perez 11-8, also lets not forget that Bottas out scored the Hulk.

Ocon being better than Perez I just don't see it, I see two well matched drivers, also regarding qualifying I guess I have my own methods in compiling the data, I have it 9-4 to Ocon with 4 of those for Ocon being less than a tenth of a second, they are the second closest pairing on the grid.

I don't believe what Mercedes did with signing Bottas was a problem for Ocon at the time, it took two things to happen in order to make it a problem, first Ricciardo took Ocon's seat at Renault and then the Strolls bought Force India for Lance and Ocon's back up seat is now in jeopardy.

Going forward I would agree Mercedes need to make a decision for 2020, Bottas or Ocon, if not Ocon then they need to cut him free because the main obstacle for Ocon finding seats is that teams don't want to sign him on loan from Mercedes.


So he should beat Hulk and be 11-8 up against Perez in a better car more often than not (Although it was close several times). McLaren were back there so I followed it closely, both Hulk and Perez outdrove Bottas in 2016 for my money, the amount of points is actually quite big when you're only generally operating for positions 7-10.

They're (Ocon and Perez) pretty close no question but if they tend to fall one way more often than not then they're better and that's going to Ocon so far. I've mentioned some of the reasons it's harder to convert qualifying advantages in the midfield pack so it being a lot closer on a Sunday is understandable.

I just think they moved too early, they didn't really give Ocon enough time to impress against Perez this year before extending Bottas so I have little sympathy for them but plenty for Ocon.

I've been through this a year or 2 back the Williams was not the better car, it was better in the first part of the season and that's what people at the time zoned in on, the Force India was the better car in the second half of the season, the trail of bread crumbs to follow is to see which cars came out on top in qualifying, this being a season were Bottas dominated Massa in qualifying, so let's not be saying that Bottas was poor in qualifying.


It was better on balance, it was quicker in a few (Monza,Brazil and Malaysia) in the back half and near equal as you can get at some others which when combined with the pre Monaco form gives it the edge over the year imo. It was pretty close though.

Massa was awful so while I don't think Bottas was poor, far from it, but he didn't need to be great to beat him. You could throw a blanket over the three (Hulk,Perez and Bottas) of them most of the time so fair enough if you saw it the other way but I think Perez and Hulk were a bit ahead over the year.

I don't think it's really fair to say one driver was awful in order to take credit from another driver who beat him comprehensible, in particular a driver 1 point away from being a WDC and who matched Kimi, but lost to Bottas every season.

Here is the qualifying in respect to Williams:-

Australia 0.109 (1-0)
Bahrain 0.673 (2-0)
China 0.569 (3-0)
Sochi 0.576 (4-0)
Spain 0.260 (5-0)
Monaco -0.336 (5-1)
Canada 0.282 (6-1)
Baku 0.347 (7-1)
Austria 0.346 (8-1)*
Silverstone 0.292 (9-1)
Hungary -0.359 (9-2)
Germany 0.020 (10-2)*
Spa -0.205 (10-3)
Italy 0.426 (11-3)
Singapore -0.037 (11-4)
Malayasia -0.103 (11-5)
Japan 0.115 (11-6)
Austin -0.488 (11-7)
Mexico -0.221 (11-8)
Brazil -0.089 (11-9)
Abu Dhabi -0.357 (11-10)

*A Williams managed a faster lap time but a Force India started higher on the grid so 12 times out of 21 a Force India was higher on the grid.

The average gap was 0.076s in favour of Williams which wouldn't be too far away from how much quicker I would view Bottas from Hulk/Perez using driver cross references so you couldn't get the peak performance of the cars much closer.

Credit to Perez for scoring the most points but that was due to his ability to have 2/3 higher scoring races like he tends to do most seasons but like I say head to head Bottas beat Perez 11-8 and scored more points than the Hulk.

Then comparing Perez and Ocon could you have 2 drivers that were more evenly matched, Ocon edging it in qualifying but Perez seemingly maybe a bit quicker in the races. Last time out was interesting Ocon out qualified Perez by 3 tenths and started 8 places further up on the grid, yet despite Perez damaging his car on the opening lap he managed to finish close behind Ocon in the race.

Ocon is a top 10 driver but presently not a step up on Bottas and I would venture slightly slower in qualifying?

Having said that given his age and perhaps ability to improve it wouldn't surprise me if he was to replace Bottas in 2020 but then again it might still depend on how Bottas performs in 2019?


First off when I said awful I was referring to Massa's form in 2016 not as an overview of his entire career, in fact from the second half of 2015 through to the end of 2016 he was awful, partly because in 2015 they struggled with the rear of the car which is Massa's kryptonite but for 2014 and first half of 2015 I felt he was better than Bottas and was only outscored because of bad luck, especially in 2014 when he had about 6 races ruined through no fault of his own. It was only Bottas's second year though and he improved throughout the battle it has to be said and Alonso'd Massa from the second half of 2015 so did well.

As for the Force India-Williams battle I think you've shown the Williams was better but seem to be assuming Bottas is quicker than Perez and Hulk and could never be outqualified by one or both in an albeit marginally slower car, can I ask why? What cross comparison are you using to determine Bottas is quicker than both?

I've mentioned the reasons a Quali advantage can be overturned more easily in the midpack a few times now, especially if you are in a car on the bubble of Q3 and you might be only a row ahead but starting with older tyres and a suboptimal strategy. It's totally different than if you're on the first couple of rows fighting each other on equal tyres, equal strategy and can be pitted into free air, with the added bonus of less drama at T1 to avoid. A 10-3 lead in qualifying with the best car is going to be much harder to overturn for Perez because there's much less things that can fall his way or against Ocon.

I think he may well be a step up on Bottas already, Bottas has gone off the boil a bit again and if Mercedes had waited a little longer then I think they might have given him a shot. Especially as Red Bull have weakened their line up and are promoting a junior and Ferrari are also likely to promote a junior (but I think that will strengthen them instead). This could've been the ideal time to do it really.

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 Post subject: Re: Silly Season 2019
PostPosted: Sun Sep 09, 2018 12:55 am 
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Jezza13 wrote:
pokerman wrote:
Jezza13 wrote:
pokerman wrote:
mikeyg123 wrote:
Ocon said himself his career was over after his F3 championship win until Wolff and Merc stepped in so without young driver programmes Ocon wouldn't have made GP3 let alone F1.

I agree it's not an ideal situation but without them the only drivers making F1 right now would be the likes of Stroll and Markelov.

Yeah criticising YDP's is ridiculous, this is how drivers without money find themselves in F1 which includes the likes of the soon to be 5 time WDC whether that be Hamilton or Vettel.


No I don't believe it is ridiculous. You can't say Vettel or Hamilton would not have made it to F1 with the help of a YDP. I don't believe the talent in F1 was any poorer prior to the advent of YDP's.

I see a YDP only as a way for teams to corral talent then sieve them out over time until they're left with the gold & the others can fight for the dross. Maybe i'm getting cynical as I get older but I don't believe for 1 minute its simply about fostering young talent. It's about me signing the best young drivers up to heavily lopsided contracts so you can't and once I sign them then i'll decide if I need them or not.

I wonder how the teams would react if Liberty or the FIA banned YDP's and instead offered to fund the careers of young talent themselves, free from the shackles of contractual obligations to teams, as they move through the lower formulae and then stop the funding either when the driver signs their first F1 contract, fails to meet KPI's or looks unlikely to progress any further?

I think that's a better alternative than the teams controlling the futures of the F1 stars of tomorrow.

No I can't say that either Hamilton or Vettel would not have made it into F1 without YDP's, Hamilton joined when he was 13, Vettel I believe was even younger?

More worrying is that you can't say that they would, good luck to the council estate kid finding the millions of pounds needed to fund his career, Michael Schumacher, son of a brick layer, had his GP debut funded by Mercedes who ran him in sportcars.


I don't know what the council estates in your area are like poker but in my area most of the kids are flat out getting a half decent push bike let alone the thousands and thousand of dollars it takes to buy & maintain a competitive go kart to allow them to show their wares to the teams talent scouts.

Yeah Schumacher had a leg up from Mercedes. Vettel & Hamilton were part of YDP's, but the likes of Alonso, Raikonnen, Hakkinen, Villeneuve, Hill, Button & Rosberg all managed to win WDC's without the benefit of YDP's. They did it through hard work, raising capital, results, a good agent & a bit of luck, & yeah, maybe in the case of Villeneuve, Hill & Rosberg, their name helped but it certainly didn't win them a WDC. These are all drivers I would not class as average and as far as I know, Alonso, Hakkinen, Raikonnen & Button came from quite modest backgrounds.

In my 30 odd yrs of watching F1 i've never sat back after watching the above drivers or even Prost, Senna, Mansell, Piquet, Lauda, Keke Rosberg, Berger & Albereto for that matter and thought that'd it'd be a truly great sport if only they had decent drivers. The sport survived nicely prior to YDP's. Top young talent has, in almost all instances, found a way to get into F1 without the help of YDP's.

YDP's are just a way for teams to get young talent out of the reach of other teams & I cringe when teams roll out their holier than thou comments about fostering young talent. This Ocon situation only serves to highlight the fact the YDP's are just about me getting the best young driver signed up before you. This is just an example of where it's backfired. If it was all about getting the best drivers in F1, he'd be there in the place of any one of at least half a dozen drivers who are guaranteed a seat next year.

I guess that takes the dedication of a Father prepared to work 4 jobs to get Hamilton into karting and racing at the age of 8, British Champion aged 9 at which point they approached McLaren basically for help which eventually came, and thus he was giving a financial road map to F1 provided he delivered the results.

Any financial avenue to assist drivers with no money should be applauded not shut down, many a talented driver ran short of funds then his career ended, such a fate nearly befell Esteban Ocon who was funded by Gravity Sport Management run by Eric Boullier, they had ties with Genii Capital who owned the Lotus F1 team, so he was indirectly funded by Lotus.

When Renault bought the Lotus F1 team at the end of 2014, Gravity Sport Management was shut down and so was Ocon's funding. During that season Wolff had tried to sign F3 driver Verstappen but was gazumped by Red Bull, he then had a talk with Ocon who was leading the series but Ocon was basically being sponsored by the Lotus F1 team which had their own plans for Ocon, after winning F3 he then would be placed into GP2, so Wolff just left it with Ocon that if he ever needed any help he could contact him.

So when Ocon's funding dried up despite him being F3 Champion he contacted Wolff asking for help and Wolff helped him by sponsoring him into GP3 with the ART team, how was this an example of a F1 team getting their hands on a young driver just to prevent other F1 teams from getting him?

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 Post subject: Re: Silly Season 2019
PostPosted: Sun Sep 09, 2018 1:01 am 
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Jezza13 wrote:
mikeyg123 wrote:
Jezza13 wrote:
I don't know what the council estates in your area are like poker but in my area most of the kids are flat out getting a half decent push bike let alone the thousands and thousand of dollars it takes to buy & maintain a competitive go kart to allow them to show their wares to the teams talent scouts.

Yeah Schumacher had a leg up from Mercedes. Vettel & Hamilton were part of YDP's, but the likes of Alonso, Raikonnen, Hakkinen, Villeneuve, Hill, Button & Rosberg all managed to win WDC's without the benefit of YDP's. They did it through hard work, raising capital, results, a good agent & a bit of luck, & yeah, maybe in the case of Villeneuve, Hill & Rosberg, their name helped but it certainly didn't win them a WDC. These are all drivers I would not class as average and as far as I know, Alonso, Hakkinen, Raikonnen & Button came from quite modest backgrounds.

In my 30 odd yrs of watching F1 i've never sat back after watching the above drivers or even Prost, Senna, Mansell, Piquet, Lauda, Keke Rosberg, Berger & Albereto for that matter and thought that'd it'd be a truly great sport if only they had decent drivers. The sport survived nicely prior to YDP's. Top young talent has, in almost all instances, found a way to get into F1 without the help of YDP's.

YDP's are just a way for teams to get young talent out of the reach of other teams & I cringe when teams roll out their holier than thou comments about fostering young talent. This Ocon situation only serves to highlight the fact the YDP's are just about me getting the best young driver signed up before you. This is just an example of where it's backfired. If it was all about getting the best drivers in F1, he'd be there in the place of any one of at least half a dozen drivers who are guaranteed a seat next year.


It's changed though now. You can't even do F2 unless you can find some funding from somewhere these days. It's not like how it used to be. It was always difficult but now it would be impossible for the likes of Ocon to make F1 without the YDP.


Well hasn't that pretty much always been the case that young drivers need a certain level of sponsorship to drive in the lower formulae? Even a young Senna was leaving the UK in his early days because further advancement in his career was dollar dependant.

It's not fair that good drivers miss out on getting to the top because their talent alone isn't enough but life in general isn't fair. Eventually anyway we're risking seeing more examples of good drivers missing out drives simply due to the fact that we'll have a traffic jamb of drivers lining up waiting to get into the limited number of available F1 seats.

I believe that was a combination of Senna being home sick plus he had a wife who was back in Brazil, he made a decision to divorce his wife and carry on with his racing career in the UK.

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 Post subject: Re: Silly Season 2019
PostPosted: Sun Sep 09, 2018 1:16 am 
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Lotus49 wrote:
pokerman wrote:
Lotus49 wrote:
pokerman wrote:
Lotus49 wrote:
So he should beat Hulk and be 11-8 up against Perez in a better car more often than not (Although it was close several times). McLaren were back there so I followed it closely, both Hulk and Perez outdrove Bottas in 2016 for my money, the amount of points is actually quite big when you're only generally operating for positions 7-10.

They're (Ocon and Perez) pretty close no question but if they tend to fall one way more often than not then they're better and that's going to Ocon so far. I've mentioned some of the reasons it's harder to convert qualifying advantages in the midfield pack so it being a lot closer on a Sunday is understandable.

I just think they moved too early, they didn't really give Ocon enough time to impress against Perez this year before extending Bottas so I have little sympathy for them but plenty for Ocon.

I've been through this a year or 2 back the Williams was not the better car, it was better in the first part of the season and that's what people at the time zoned in on, the Force India was the better car in the second half of the season, the trail of bread crumbs to follow is to see which cars came out on top in qualifying, this being a season were Bottas dominated Massa in qualifying, so let's not be saying that Bottas was poor in qualifying.


It was better on balance, it was quicker in a few (Monza,Brazil and Malaysia) in the back half and near equal as you can get at some others which when combined with the pre Monaco form gives it the edge over the year imo. It was pretty close though.

Massa was awful so while I don't think Bottas was poor, far from it, but he didn't need to be great to beat him. You could throw a blanket over the three (Hulk,Perez and Bottas) of them most of the time so fair enough if you saw it the other way but I think Perez and Hulk were a bit ahead over the year.

I don't think it's really fair to say one driver was awful in order to take credit from another driver who beat him comprehensible, in particular a driver 1 point away from being a WDC and who matched Kimi, but lost to Bottas every season.

Here is the qualifying in respect to Williams:-

Australia 0.109 (1-0)
Bahrain 0.673 (2-0)
China 0.569 (3-0)
Sochi 0.576 (4-0)
Spain 0.260 (5-0)
Monaco -0.336 (5-1)
Canada 0.282 (6-1)
Baku 0.347 (7-1)
Austria 0.346 (8-1)*
Silverstone 0.292 (9-1)
Hungary -0.359 (9-2)
Germany 0.020 (10-2)*
Spa -0.205 (10-3)
Italy 0.426 (11-3)
Singapore -0.037 (11-4)
Malayasia -0.103 (11-5)
Japan 0.115 (11-6)
Austin -0.488 (11-7)
Mexico -0.221 (11-8)
Brazil -0.089 (11-9)
Abu Dhabi -0.357 (11-10)

*A Williams managed a faster lap time but a Force India started higher on the grid so 12 times out of 21 a Force India was higher on the grid.

The average gap was 0.076s in favour of Williams which wouldn't be too far away from how much quicker I would view Bottas from Hulk/Perez using driver cross references so you couldn't get the peak performance of the cars much closer.

Credit to Perez for scoring the most points but that was due to his ability to have 2/3 higher scoring races like he tends to do most seasons but like I say head to head Bottas beat Perez 11-8 and scored more points than the Hulk.

Then comparing Perez and Ocon could you have 2 drivers that were more evenly matched, Ocon edging it in qualifying but Perez seemingly maybe a bit quicker in the races. Last time out was interesting Ocon out qualified Perez by 3 tenths and started 8 places further up on the grid, yet despite Perez damaging his car on the opening lap he managed to finish close behind Ocon in the race.

Ocon is a top 10 driver but presently not a step up on Bottas and I would venture slightly slower in qualifying?

Having said that given his age and perhaps ability to improve it wouldn't surprise me if he was to replace Bottas in 2020 but then again it might still depend on how Bottas performs in 2019?


First off when I said awful I was referring to Massa's form in 2016 not as an overview of his entire career, in fact from the second half of 2015 through to the end of 2016 he was awful, partly because in 2015 they struggled with the rear of the car which is Massa's kryptonite but for 2014 and first half of 2015 I felt he was better than Bottas and was only outscored because of bad luck, especially in 2014 when he had about 6 races ruined through no fault of his own. It was only Bottas's second year though and he improved throughout the battle it has to be said and Alonso'd Massa from the second half of 2015 so did well.

As for the Force India-Williams battle I think you've shown the Williams was better but seem to be assuming Bottas is quicker than Perez and Hulk and could never be outqualified by one or both in an albeit marginally slower car, can I ask why? What cross comparison are you using to determine Bottas is quicker than both?

I've mentioned the reasons a Quali advantage can be overturned more easily in the midpack a few times now, especially if you are in a car on the bubble of Q3 and you might be only a row ahead but starting with older tyres and a suboptimal strategy. It's totally different than if you're on the first couple of rows fighting each other on equal tyres, equal strategy and can be pitted into free air, with the added bonus of less drama at T1 to avoid. A 10-3 lead in qualifying with the best car is going to be much harder to overturn for Perez because there's much less things that can fall his way or against Ocon.

I think he may well be a step up on Bottas already, Bottas has gone off the boil a bit again and if Mercedes had waited a little longer then I think they might have given him a shot. Especially as Red Bull have weakened their line up and are promoting a junior and Ferrari are also likely to promote a junior (but I think that will strengthen them instead). This could've been the ideal time to do it really.

That kind of reads like Massa was unlucky to get beat by Bottas 3 years on the trot in both qualifying and in points, Williams took the view that Bottas was better and let Massa go.

I think it's hard to say a car was better when it started the races in front just 9 out of 21 times, myself I'd say close to even.

As for the comparison the route is:-

Hulk>Perez>Button>Alonso>Massa>Bottas

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 Post subject: Re: Silly Season 2019
PostPosted: Sun Sep 09, 2018 3:29 am 
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pokerman wrote:
As for the comparison the route is:-

Hulk>Perez>Button>Alonso>Massa>Bottas

When I first saw this I read it as a linear equation, and I was about to do a furious double take on how you could possibly believe in that progression! :lol:

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 Post subject: Re: Silly Season 2019
PostPosted: Sun Sep 09, 2018 2:47 pm 
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Ferrari making no announcement is surely letting some websites post atrocious rumours.

Latest is Raikkonen will move to Sauber to become part owner in a new driver / developer role! :lol:

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 Post subject: Re: Silly Season 2019
PostPosted: Sun Sep 09, 2018 9:45 pm 
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pokerman wrote:
Lotus49 wrote:
pokerman wrote:
Lotus49 wrote:
pokerman wrote:
I've been through this a year or 2 back the Williams was not the better car, it was better in the first part of the season and that's what people at the time zoned in on, the Force India was the better car in the second half of the season, the trail of bread crumbs to follow is to see which cars came out on top in qualifying, this being a season were Bottas dominated Massa in qualifying, so let's not be saying that Bottas was poor in qualifying.


It was better on balance, it was quicker in a few (Monza,Brazil and Malaysia) in the back half and near equal as you can get at some others which when combined with the pre Monaco form gives it the edge over the year imo. It was pretty close though.

Massa was awful so while I don't think Bottas was poor, far from it, but he didn't need to be great to beat him. You could throw a blanket over the three (Hulk,Perez and Bottas) of them most of the time so fair enough if you saw it the other way but I think Perez and Hulk were a bit ahead over the year.

I don't think it's really fair to say one driver was awful in order to take credit from another driver who beat him comprehensible, in particular a driver 1 point away from being a WDC and who matched Kimi, but lost to Bottas every season.

Here is the qualifying in respect to Williams:-

Australia 0.109 (1-0)
Bahrain 0.673 (2-0)
China 0.569 (3-0)
Sochi 0.576 (4-0)
Spain 0.260 (5-0)
Monaco -0.336 (5-1)
Canada 0.282 (6-1)
Baku 0.347 (7-1)
Austria 0.346 (8-1)*
Silverstone 0.292 (9-1)
Hungary -0.359 (9-2)
Germany 0.020 (10-2)*
Spa -0.205 (10-3)
Italy 0.426 (11-3)
Singapore -0.037 (11-4)
Malayasia -0.103 (11-5)
Japan 0.115 (11-6)
Austin -0.488 (11-7)
Mexico -0.221 (11-8)
Brazil -0.089 (11-9)
Abu Dhabi -0.357 (11-10)

*A Williams managed a faster lap time but a Force India started higher on the grid so 12 times out of 21 a Force India was higher on the grid.

The average gap was 0.076s in favour of Williams which wouldn't be too far away from how much quicker I would view Bottas from Hulk/Perez using driver cross references so you couldn't get the peak performance of the cars much closer.

Credit to Perez for scoring the most points but that was due to his ability to have 2/3 higher scoring races like he tends to do most seasons but like I say head to head Bottas beat Perez 11-8 and scored more points than the Hulk.

Then comparing Perez and Ocon could you have 2 drivers that were more evenly matched, Ocon edging it in qualifying but Perez seemingly maybe a bit quicker in the races. Last time out was interesting Ocon out qualified Perez by 3 tenths and started 8 places further up on the grid, yet despite Perez damaging his car on the opening lap he managed to finish close behind Ocon in the race.

Ocon is a top 10 driver but presently not a step up on Bottas and I would venture slightly slower in qualifying?

Having said that given his age and perhaps ability to improve it wouldn't surprise me if he was to replace Bottas in 2020 but then again it might still depend on how Bottas performs in 2019?


First off when I said awful I was referring to Massa's form in 2016 not as an overview of his entire career, in fact from the second half of 2015 through to the end of 2016 he was awful, partly because in 2015 they struggled with the rear of the car which is Massa's kryptonite but for 2014 and first half of 2015 I felt he was better than Bottas and was only outscored because of bad luck, especially in 2014 when he had about 6 races ruined through no fault of his own. It was only Bottas's second year though and he improved throughout the battle it has to be said and Alonso'd Massa from the second half of 2015 so did well.

As for the Force India-Williams battle I think you've shown the Williams was better but seem to be assuming Bottas is quicker than Perez and Hulk and could never be outqualified by one or both in an albeit marginally slower car, can I ask why? What cross comparison are you using to determine Bottas is quicker than both?

I've mentioned the reasons a Quali advantage can be overturned more easily in the midpack a few times now, especially if you are in a car on the bubble of Q3 and you might be only a row ahead but starting with older tyres and a suboptimal strategy. It's totally different than if you're on the first couple of rows fighting each other on equal tyres, equal strategy and can be pitted into free air, with the added bonus of less drama at T1 to avoid. A 10-3 lead in qualifying with the best car is going to be much harder to overturn for Perez because there's much less things that can fall his way or against Ocon.

I think he may well be a step up on Bottas already, Bottas has gone off the boil a bit again and if Mercedes had waited a little longer then I think they might have given him a shot. Especially as Red Bull have weakened their line up and are promoting a junior and Ferrari are also likely to promote a junior (but I think that will strengthen them instead). This could've been the ideal time to do it really.

That kind of reads like Massa was unlucky to get beat by Bottas 3 years on the trot in both qualifying and in points, Williams took the view that Bottas was better and let Massa go.

I think it's hard to say a car was better when it started the races in front just 9 out of 21 times, myself I'd say close to even.

As for the comparison the route is:-

Hulk>Perez>Button>Alonso>Massa>Bottas


No it reads like he was unlucky to be outscored in 2014 but was still doing well for the first half of 2015 but from then on Bottas took full control and Massa's form dropped.

Happy to agree to disagree on the car and the cross comparison.

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 Post subject: Re: Silly Season 2019
PostPosted: Sun Sep 09, 2018 11:49 pm 
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Exediron wrote:
pokerman wrote:
As for the comparison the route is:-

Hulk>Perez>Button>Alonso>Massa>Bottas

When I first saw this I read it as a linear equation, and I was about to do a furious double take on how you could possibly believe in that progression! :lol:

No I just couldn't think of what better to use at the time. :)

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 Post subject: Re: Silly Season 2019
PostPosted: Tue Sep 11, 2018 10:12 am 
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Another two pieces of the 2019 line up fall into place with Raikkonen and Leclerc.

MERC: Hamilton + Bottas
FERRARI: Vettel + Leclerc
RED BULL: Verstappen + Gasly
RENAULT: Ricciardo + Hulkenberg
MCLAREN: Sainz + Norris
HAAS: Magnussen + ???
TORO ROSSO: ??? + ???
FORCE INDIA: Stroll + ???
SAUBER: Raikkonen + ???
WILLIAMS: ??? + ???

I'm not sure Magnussen or Stroll have officially been confirmed at Haas/Force India for next year but I'm sure it's just a matter of time. This leaves seven seats on the grid for Grosjean, Hartley, Ocon, Perez, Sirotkin, Ericcson, Vandoorne and any newcomers - Russell/Red Bull young drivers.

After his recent upturn in form I can see Grosjean keeping his seat at Haas. As mentioned elsewhere now Sauber have Kimi's experience surely they can get someone other than Ericsson in the other seat - Giovanazzi. One of Ocon and Perez to stay at Force India and the other to take the seat at Williams alongside Russell or Sirotkin if Williams want the money? Two of Vandoorne, Hartley or a Red Bull young driver for Toro Rosso.

Thoughts?


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 Post subject: Re: Silly Season 2019
PostPosted: Tue Sep 11, 2018 10:16 am 
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JN23 wrote:
Another two pieces of the 2019 line up fall into place with Raikkonen and Leclerc.

MERC: Hamilton + Bottas
FERRARI: Vettel + Leclerc
RED BULL: Verstappen + Gasly
RENAULT: Ricciardo + Hulkenberg
MCLAREN: Sainz + Norris
HAAS: Magnussen + ???
TORO ROSSO: ??? + ???
FORCE INDIA: Stroll + ???
SAUBER: Raikkonen + ???
WILLIAMS: ??? + ???

I'm not sure Magnussen or Stroll have officially been confirmed at Haas/Force India for next year but I'm sure it's just a matter of time. This leaves seven seats on the grid for Grosjean, Hartley, Ocon, Perez, Sirotkin, Ericcson, Vandoorne and any newcomers - Russell/Red Bull young drivers.

After his recent upturn in form I can see Grosjean keeping his seat at Haas. As mentioned elsewhere now Sauber have Kimi's experience surely they can get someone other than Ericsson in the other seat - Giovanazzi. One of Ocon and Perez to stay at Force India and the other to take the seat at Williams alongside Russell or Sirotkin if Williams want the money? Two of Vandoorne, Hartley or a Red Bull young driver for Toro Rosso.

Thoughts?


You forgot all about Kubica whose first in line to get the vacant seat at Williams once Lance leaves!

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 Post subject: Re: Silly Season 2019
PostPosted: Tue Sep 11, 2018 10:19 am 
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UnlikeUday wrote:
JN23 wrote:
Another two pieces of the 2019 line up fall into place with Raikkonen and Leclerc.

MERC: Hamilton + Bottas
FERRARI: Vettel + Leclerc
RED BULL: Verstappen + Gasly
RENAULT: Ricciardo + Hulkenberg
MCLAREN: Sainz + Norris
HAAS: Magnussen + ???
TORO ROSSO: ??? + ???
FORCE INDIA: Stroll + ???
SAUBER: Raikkonen + ???
WILLIAMS: ??? + ???

I'm not sure Magnussen or Stroll have officially been confirmed at Haas/Force India for next year but I'm sure it's just a matter of time. This leaves seven seats on the grid for Grosjean, Hartley, Ocon, Perez, Sirotkin, Ericcson, Vandoorne and any newcomers - Russell/Red Bull young drivers.

After his recent upturn in form I can see Grosjean keeping his seat at Haas. As mentioned elsewhere now Sauber have Kimi's experience surely they can get someone other than Ericsson in the other seat - Giovanazzi. One of Ocon and Perez to stay at Force India and the other to take the seat at Williams alongside Russell or Sirotkin if Williams want the money? Two of Vandoorne, Hartley or a Red Bull young driver for Toro Rosso.

Thoughts?


You forgot all about Kubica whose first in line to get the vacant seat at Williams once Lance leaves!


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 Post subject: Re: Silly Season 2019
PostPosted: Tue Sep 11, 2018 10:30 am 
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Posts: 2989
JN23 wrote:
Another two pieces of the 2019 line up fall into place with Raikkonen and Leclerc.

MERC: Hamilton + Bottas
FERRARI: Vettel + Leclerc
RED BULL: Verstappen + Gasly
RENAULT: Ricciardo + Hulkenberg
MCLAREN: Sainz + Norris
HAAS: Magnussen + ???
TORO ROSSO: ??? + ???
FORCE INDIA: Stroll + ???
SAUBER: Raikkonen + ???
WILLIAMS: ??? + ???

I'm not sure Magnussen or Stroll have officially been confirmed at Haas/Force India for next year but I'm sure it's just a matter of time. This leaves seven seats on the grid for Grosjean, Hartley, Ocon, Perez, Sirotkin, Ericcson, Vandoorne and any newcomers - Russell/Red Bull young drivers.

After his recent upturn in form I can see Grosjean keeping his seat at Haas. As mentioned elsewhere now Sauber have Kimi's experience surely they can get someone other than Ericsson in the other seat - Giovanazzi. One of Ocon and Perez to stay at Force India and the other to take the seat at Williams alongside Russell or Sirotkin if Williams want the money? Two of Vandoorne, Hartley or a Red Bull young driver for Toro Rosso.

Thoughts?


For me, I'd like to see all four of Perez, Ocon, Russell and Vandoorne on the grid next year, so something like:

Perez to Haas
Ocon remains at Force India
Russell in at Williams
Vandoorne takes one of the seats at Toro Rosso

Of course, if Ocon was released from his Mercedes backing then you can swap him and Perez in that scenario, or even have him alongside Vandoorne at Toro Rosso.

But that's just what I'd like to happen. Realistically, I expect at least one of those four drivers to not be on the grid in 2019, possibly even two if Perez remains at Force India and Ocon doesn't depart the Mercedes junior programme.

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 Post subject: Re: Silly Season 2019
PostPosted: Tue Sep 11, 2018 10:38 am 
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Jenson's Understeer wrote:
JN23 wrote:
Another two pieces of the 2019 line up fall into place with Raikkonen and Leclerc.

MERC: Hamilton + Bottas
FERRARI: Vettel + Leclerc
RED BULL: Verstappen + Gasly
RENAULT: Ricciardo + Hulkenberg
MCLAREN: Sainz + Norris
HAAS: Magnussen + ???
TORO ROSSO: ??? + ???
FORCE INDIA: Stroll + ???
SAUBER: Raikkonen + ???
WILLIAMS: ??? + ???

I'm not sure Magnussen or Stroll have officially been confirmed at Haas/Force India for next year but I'm sure it's just a matter of time. This leaves seven seats on the grid for Grosjean, Hartley, Ocon, Perez, Sirotkin, Ericcson, Vandoorne and any newcomers - Russell/Red Bull young drivers.

After his recent upturn in form I can see Grosjean keeping his seat at Haas. As mentioned elsewhere now Sauber have Kimi's experience surely they can get someone other than Ericsson in the other seat - Giovanazzi. One of Ocon and Perez to stay at Force India and the other to take the seat at Williams alongside Russell or Sirotkin if Williams want the money? Two of Vandoorne, Hartley or a Red Bull young driver for Toro Rosso.

Thoughts?


For me, I'd like to see all four of Perez, Ocon, Russell and Vandoorne on the grid next year, so something like:

Perez to Haas
Ocon remains at Force India
Russell in at Williams
Vandoorne takes one of the seats at Toro Rosso

Of course, if Ocon was released from his Mercedes backing then you can swap him and Perez in that scenario, or even have him alongside Vandoorne at Toro Rosso.

But that's just what I'd like to happen. Realistically, I expect at least one of those four drivers to not be on the grid in 2019, possibly even two if Perez remains at Force India and Ocon doesn't depart the Mercedes junior programme.


I'd also want Checo in Haas as that would safeguard Ocon at Force India. However, Checo has said if he can't get a seat at Mercedes or Ferrari, he feels there's no better team to be where he currently is, which could imply he's extended his stay with Force India. He was saying he wishes to announce his deal before the Singapore rand Prix begins. All the delay or confusion lies with Ocon though. Poor chap, he's too good to be without a seat.

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 Post subject: Re: Silly Season 2019
PostPosted: Tue Sep 11, 2018 10:46 am 
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Posts: 289
Location: Stratford
Jenson's Understeer wrote:
JN23 wrote:
Another two pieces of the 2019 line up fall into place with Raikkonen and Leclerc.

MERC: Hamilton + Bottas
FERRARI: Vettel + Leclerc
RED BULL: Verstappen + Gasly
RENAULT: Ricciardo + Hulkenberg
MCLAREN: Sainz + Norris
HAAS: Magnussen + ???
TORO ROSSO: ??? + ???
FORCE INDIA: Stroll + ???
SAUBER: Raikkonen + ???
WILLIAMS: ??? + ???

I'm not sure Magnussen or Stroll have officially been confirmed at Haas/Force India for next year but I'm sure it's just a matter of time. This leaves seven seats on the grid for Grosjean, Hartley, Ocon, Perez, Sirotkin, Ericcson, Vandoorne and any newcomers - Russell/Red Bull young drivers.

After his recent upturn in form I can see Grosjean keeping his seat at Haas. As mentioned elsewhere now Sauber have Kimi's experience surely they can get someone other than Ericsson in the other seat - Giovanazzi. One of Ocon and Perez to stay at Force India and the other to take the seat at Williams alongside Russell or Sirotkin if Williams want the money? Two of Vandoorne, Hartley or a Red Bull young driver for Toro Rosso.

Thoughts?


For me, I'd like to see all four of Perez, Ocon, Russell and Vandoorne on the grid next year, so something like:

Perez to Haas
Ocon remains at Force India
Russell in at Williams
Vandoorne takes one of the seats at Toro Rosso

Of course, if Ocon was released from his Mercedes backing then you can swap him and Perez in that scenario, or even have him alongside Vandoorne at Toro Rosso.

But that's just what I'd like to happen. Realistically, I expect at least one of those four drivers to not be on the grid in 2019, possibly even two if Perez remains at Force India and Ocon doesn't depart the Mercedes junior programme.


Yeah I agree and ideally I'd like to see them at those teams also.


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 Post subject: Re: Silly Season 2019
PostPosted: Tue Sep 11, 2018 10:48 am 
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Joined: Wed Feb 29, 2012 5:47 pm
Posts: 2989
UnlikeUday wrote:
Jenson's Understeer wrote:
JN23 wrote:
Another two pieces of the 2019 line up fall into place with Raikkonen and Leclerc.

MERC: Hamilton + Bottas
FERRARI: Vettel + Leclerc
RED BULL: Verstappen + Gasly
RENAULT: Ricciardo + Hulkenberg
MCLAREN: Sainz + Norris
HAAS: Magnussen + ???
TORO ROSSO: ??? + ???
FORCE INDIA: Stroll + ???
SAUBER: Raikkonen + ???
WILLIAMS: ??? + ???

I'm not sure Magnussen or Stroll have officially been confirmed at Haas/Force India for next year but I'm sure it's just a matter of time. This leaves seven seats on the grid for Grosjean, Hartley, Ocon, Perez, Sirotkin, Ericcson, Vandoorne and any newcomers - Russell/Red Bull young drivers.

After his recent upturn in form I can see Grosjean keeping his seat at Haas. As mentioned elsewhere now Sauber have Kimi's experience surely they can get someone other than Ericsson in the other seat - Giovanazzi. One of Ocon and Perez to stay at Force India and the other to take the seat at Williams alongside Russell or Sirotkin if Williams want the money? Two of Vandoorne, Hartley or a Red Bull young driver for Toro Rosso.

Thoughts?


For me, I'd like to see all four of Perez, Ocon, Russell and Vandoorne on the grid next year, so something like:

Perez to Haas
Ocon remains at Force India
Russell in at Williams
Vandoorne takes one of the seats at Toro Rosso

Of course, if Ocon was released from his Mercedes backing then you can swap him and Perez in that scenario, or even have him alongside Vandoorne at Toro Rosso.

But that's just what I'd like to happen. Realistically, I expect at least one of those four drivers to not be on the grid in 2019, possibly even two if Perez remains at Force India and Ocon doesn't depart the Mercedes junior programme.


I'd also want Checo in Haas as that would safeguard Ocon at Force India. However, Checo has said if he can't get a seat at Mercedes or Ferrari, he feels there's no better team to be where he currently is, which could imply he's extended his stay with Force India. He was saying he wishes to announce his deal before the Singapore rand Prix begins. All the delay or confusion lies with Ocon though. Poor chap, he's too good to be without a seat.


To be fair, we hear this every year from Perez. About halfway through the season he (or Force India) tell us a deal will be announced imminently, yet it just drags on and on and on...

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 Post subject: Re: Silly Season 2019
PostPosted: Tue Sep 11, 2018 10:59 am 
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Jenson's Understeer wrote:
UnlikeUday wrote:
Jenson's Understeer wrote:
JN23 wrote:
Another two pieces of the 2019 line up fall into place with Raikkonen and Leclerc.

MERC: Hamilton + Bottas
FERRARI: Vettel + Leclerc
RED BULL: Verstappen + Gasly
RENAULT: Ricciardo + Hulkenberg
MCLAREN: Sainz + Norris
HAAS: Magnussen + ???
TORO ROSSO: ??? + ???
FORCE INDIA: Stroll + ???
SAUBER: Raikkonen + ???
WILLIAMS: ??? + ???

I'm not sure Magnussen or Stroll have officially been confirmed at Haas/Force India for next year but I'm sure it's just a matter of time. This leaves seven seats on the grid for Grosjean, Hartley, Ocon, Perez, Sirotkin, Ericcson, Vandoorne and any newcomers - Russell/Red Bull young drivers.

After his recent upturn in form I can see Grosjean keeping his seat at Haas. As mentioned elsewhere now Sauber have Kimi's experience surely they can get someone other than Ericsson in the other seat - Giovanazzi. One of Ocon and Perez to stay at Force India and the other to take the seat at Williams alongside Russell or Sirotkin if Williams want the money? Two of Vandoorne, Hartley or a Red Bull young driver for Toro Rosso.

Thoughts?


For me, I'd like to see all four of Perez, Ocon, Russell and Vandoorne on the grid next year, so something like:

Perez to Haas
Ocon remains at Force India
Russell in at Williams
Vandoorne takes one of the seats at Toro Rosso

Of course, if Ocon was released from his Mercedes backing then you can swap him and Perez in that scenario, or even have him alongside Vandoorne at Toro Rosso.

But that's just what I'd like to happen. Realistically, I expect at least one of those four drivers to not be on the grid in 2019, possibly even two if Perez remains at Force India and Ocon doesn't depart the Mercedes junior programme.


I'd also want Checo in Haas as that would safeguard Ocon at Force India. However, Checo has said if he can't get a seat at Mercedes or Ferrari, he feels there's no better team to be where he currently is, which could imply he's extended his stay with Force India. He was saying he wishes to announce his deal before the Singapore rand Prix begins. All the delay or confusion lies with Ocon though. Poor chap, he's too good to be without a seat.


To be fair, we hear this every year from Perez. About halfway through the season he (or Force India) tell us a deal will be announced imminently, yet it just drags on and on and on...


Lol...I hope then Checo is going to Haas. He's surely an upgrade over Grosjean & considering how good the Haas car has been, he'd do real well. Also worth noting is Force India will also be getting added financial boost & considering their efficient workstaff, Force India could turn heads.

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 Post subject: Re: Silly Season 2019
PostPosted: Tue Sep 11, 2018 11:19 am 
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Joined: Wed Feb 29, 2012 5:47 pm
Posts: 2989
UnlikeUday wrote:
Jenson's Understeer wrote:
UnlikeUday wrote:
Jenson's Understeer wrote:
JN23 wrote:
Another two pieces of the 2019 line up fall into place with Raikkonen and Leclerc.

MERC: Hamilton + Bottas
FERRARI: Vettel + Leclerc
RED BULL: Verstappen + Gasly
RENAULT: Ricciardo + Hulkenberg
MCLAREN: Sainz + Norris
HAAS: Magnussen + ???
TORO ROSSO: ??? + ???
FORCE INDIA: Stroll + ???
SAUBER: Raikkonen + ???
WILLIAMS: ??? + ???

I'm not sure Magnussen or Stroll have officially been confirmed at Haas/Force India for next year but I'm sure it's just a matter of time. This leaves seven seats on the grid for Grosjean, Hartley, Ocon, Perez, Sirotkin, Ericcson, Vandoorne and any newcomers - Russell/Red Bull young drivers.

After his recent upturn in form I can see Grosjean keeping his seat at Haas. As mentioned elsewhere now Sauber have Kimi's experience surely they can get someone other than Ericsson in the other seat - Giovanazzi. One of Ocon and Perez to stay at Force India and the other to take the seat at Williams alongside Russell or Sirotkin if Williams want the money? Two of Vandoorne, Hartley or a Red Bull young driver for Toro Rosso.

Thoughts?


For me, I'd like to see all four of Perez, Ocon, Russell and Vandoorne on the grid next year, so something like:

Perez to Haas
Ocon remains at Force India
Russell in at Williams
Vandoorne takes one of the seats at Toro Rosso

Of course, if Ocon was released from his Mercedes backing then you can swap him and Perez in that scenario, or even have him alongside Vandoorne at Toro Rosso.

But that's just what I'd like to happen. Realistically, I expect at least one of those four drivers to not be on the grid in 2019, possibly even two if Perez remains at Force India and Ocon doesn't depart the Mercedes junior programme.


I'd also want Checo in Haas as that would safeguard Ocon at Force India. However, Checo has said if he can't get a seat at Mercedes or Ferrari, he feels there's no better team to be where he currently is, which could imply he's extended his stay with Force India. He was saying he wishes to announce his deal before the Singapore rand Prix begins. All the delay or confusion lies with Ocon though. Poor chap, he's too good to be without a seat.


To be fair, we hear this every year from Perez. About halfway through the season he (or Force India) tell us a deal will be announced imminently, yet it just drags on and on and on...


Lol...I hope then Checo is going to Haas. He's surely an upgrade over Grosjean & considering how good the Haas car has been, he'd do real well. Also worth noting is Force India will also be getting added financial boost & considering their efficient workstaff, Force India could turn heads.


Either/or makes sense. Haas have the American angle, and while I know Sergio's not from America, I'm sure having a Mexican driver would still be beneficial. Staying at Force India also makes sense if they're going to invest in the team, although there is a slight risk there about Lance getting preferential treatment.

I just wonder whether the fact Perez hasn't announced he's staying with Force India is linked to Mercedes pushing hard to keep Ocon in the seat, or if it is just the usual delays related to Perez's backers.

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 Post subject: Re: Silly Season 2019
PostPosted: Tue Sep 11, 2018 11:27 am 
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Earlier when Checo had confirmed he's signed a contract, he said the team (don't know which one) would announce it when & where they feel it's the right time to do so. Recently, he said he would announce it himself before the grand prix weekend.

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