sandman1347 wrote:
The bottom line is that Mercedes' young driver program is suspect. There is no connection between the program and their actual F1 team. There is no path to a Merc seat that leads through their development program. Say what you want about Ferrari but they have pulled the trigger here. They have promoted a youngster that they supported through the ranks. Red Bull have written the book on this. For the last decade, every Red Bull driver has come through their development program; from Vettel to Ricciardo to Verstappen to Gasly. They've all been a part of the program, raced for Toro Rosso and then got promoted to Red Bull.
Mercedes had the opportunity to promote Ocon but they instead hastily re-signed Bottas. In their defense, perhaps they aren't sold on Ocon. He is awfully tall at 185 cm and you can't help but wonder whether that will limit him relative to the very best drivers out there. He also hasn't really distinguished himself from Perez to a great degree. He basically compares to Perez much like Hulkenberg did; faster over one lap but perhaps not as strong in the races.
I think that Mercedes are ultimately not particularly interested in developing talent. Toto made that clear when he said they weren't interested in having a B-team (a must if you want an effective young driver program). They're happy to pay top dollar for talent that has been developed elsewhere. Rather than worrying about grooming a successor to Hamilton, they have chosen to maintain peace and harmony within the team by keeping Bottas (a driver who is no slouch but who is clearly NOT Hamilton's successor) and just milking this purple patch of Hamilton's career for all its worth. When Lewis hangs up his helmet, they'll probably spend the money to bring in Max to replace him. Ocon would have been better off in the Red Bull program.
A basic problem with Ocon is that he's good but he doesn't look special, Perez is seen as a tier 2 driver but Ocon is not beating him, they look very evenly matched so he's a driver who is a like for like replacement for Bottas.
It needs Bottas to under perform at Mercedes or they simply bite the bullet and commit to their young driver and sack a driver that's not given enough cause to be sacked, that's hard to do.
I see the situation a bit differently with Ferrari, the performance gap between Vettel and Kimi has been that bit wider plus it's hard to pigeon hole Leclerc because Ericsson is less than an average F1 driver but I guess you judge against Wehrlein and Leclerc has been far more impressive so he's standing out rather than being matched by other drivers.
Another season alongside Ericsson would have learned Ferrari not much more about Leclerc, they needed to put him in the Haas which I believed they tried to do but Haas were not interested so if you are going to put Leclerc in the Ferrari why wait the extra year which is not going to learn you much more about Leclerc?
Still a bit of a gamble though but with Kimi going to Sauber that could be seen as a back up option in case things go wrong for Leclerc?
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