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PostPosted: Thu Apr 12, 2018 9:01 pm 
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Siao7 wrote:
pokerman wrote:
Siao7 wrote:
pokerman wrote:
iano wrote:

OK - my what i was trying to say became muddied. You make 10 moves with a 50% chance of resulting in damage... you expect to get damaged 5 times, and you should learn to find moves with a lower risk. The five times you don't have damage, it not because it was less risky those time, just those were the times you were lucky. Sometimes he takes to much of a risk....but that time there is no damage some claim him brilliant. My point is he does take to many risks.... which results in too many damaged cars, that is his fault. Luck is when he takes too big of a risk, but escapes damage on that occasion and thinks he is brilliant rather than just lucky that time.

I like your analogy as I was going to post something similar myself regarding Verstappen, if you hit someone it can be seen as a 50/50 risk so you can be seen as lucky not to have your race compromised but also unlucky if it is.


Wouldn't 50/50 be the outcome (make it stick or not) and not the risk? The risk can also be very high or very low. Or am I thinking of this the wrong way?

I'm not sure what you mean?


There are only two outcomes, damage or not damage, right? Risk is different, you can make a high risk pass in improbable places or really late braking for example or a low risk pass, like DRS or to a backmarker. There are two different things in my head, I cannot put risk as 50/50

No I wasn't referring to the risk level of the pass but the outcome of hitting another car, in my opinion hitting another car doesn't seem to overly concern Verstappen.

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PostPosted: Fri Apr 13, 2018 5:51 am 
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pokerman wrote:
DuckMcF wrote:
The problem for Dan is that RBR have a couple of RB family drivers (Sainz and Gasly) waiting in the wings to take his seat that would complement Max, which I guess is why they're piling on the time pressure.

The problem for RBR is that while Dan is not as ultimately fast as Max, he does have stellar race craft and (usually) a nice habit of being in the right place at the right time to take home a bag of points.

What this mean is that if it all plays out badly it's possible that Dan could be without a top team seat, while RBR spends a season or 2 with a front running car that for whatever reason doesn't find a way to bring home enough points.

A possible lose-lose situation....

The rumour is that he has signed a pre-contract with Ferrari meaning that if he leaves Red Bull then he goes to Ferrari, he's not going to walk out on Red Bull in the hope of getting a seat at either Ferrari or Mercedes.


And both Dan and Helmut Marko have denied this apparently...there's articles on a few F1 sites, but I don't know how reliable they are, or if Dan and Marko are even telling the truth lol - who knows? I guess we'll find out when we find out.

I'd love to see him in a reliable, competitive car though....

Edit: Also, apparently Dan has said he doesn't want to decide until the European stint this year.


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PostPosted: Sun Apr 15, 2018 3:10 am 
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Myopia wrote:
pokerman wrote:
The rumour is that he has signed a pre-contract with Ferrari meaning that if he leaves Red Bull then he goes to Ferrari, he's not going to walk out on Red Bull in the hope of getting a seat at either Ferrari or Mercedes.


And both Dan and Helmut Marko have denied this apparently...there's articles on a few F1 sites, but I don't know how reliable they are, or if Dan and Marko are even telling the truth lol - who knows? I guess we'll find out when we find out.

I'd love to see him in a reliable, competitive car though....

Edit: Also, apparently Dan has said he doesn't want to decide until the European stint this year.


Interesting to hear where you read about not deciding until the European stint this year. That is radical as it contradicts so much including people like Webber warning not deciding soon would be to be risk being left out, together with the various reports by both Ricciardo and Red Bull that they have agreed a deadline of 'by June'.

Given how long it takes to put a contract in place and seal the fine details, and that the European swing runs until September.....
could really mean a change.

Note this quote from Ricciardo:
Quote:
"I think realistically around April things will start to be spoken," said Ricciardo at Test One. "After a few races, hopefully I win the first few and I can have a powerful say in what I do!"

From an article posted justlast Month... if there is a newer position of waiting to see how the European swing pans out would be huge - and possibly mean now being prepared to take a year off.


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PostPosted: Sun Apr 15, 2018 4:14 am 
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iano wrote:
Myopia wrote:
pokerman wrote:
The rumour is that he has signed a pre-contract with Ferrari meaning that if he leaves Red Bull then he goes to Ferrari, he's not going to walk out on Red Bull in the hope of getting a seat at either Ferrari or Mercedes.


And both Dan and Helmut Marko have denied this apparently...there's articles on a few F1 sites, but I don't know how reliable they are, or if Dan and Marko are even telling the truth lol - who knows? I guess we'll find out when we find out.

I'd love to see him in a reliable, competitive car though....

Edit: Also, apparently Dan has said he doesn't want to decide until the European stint this year.


Interesting to hear where you read about not deciding until the European stint this year. That is radical as it contradicts so much including people like Webber warning not deciding soon would be to be risk being left out, together with the various reports by both Ricciardo and Red Bull that they have agreed a deadline of 'by June'.

Given how long it takes to put a contract in place and seal the fine details, and that the European swing runs until September.....
could really mean a change.

Note this quote from Ricciardo:
Quote:
"I think realistically around April things will start to be spoken," said Ricciardo at Test One. "After a few races, hopefully I win the first few and I can have a powerful say in what I do!"

From an article posted justlast Month... if there is a newer position of waiting to see how the European swing pans out would be huge - and possibly mean now being prepared to take a year off.


I tried to find where I read it, and I can't, so maybe it was earlier in the year. Ignore it, seeing as I can't back it up :( It may well have been our Australian media, who are pretty useless when it comes to F1 anyway. Apologies.


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PostPosted: Sun Apr 15, 2018 10:11 am 
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Myopia wrote:
iano wrote:
Myopia wrote:
pokerman wrote:
The rumour is that he has signed a pre-contract with Ferrari meaning that if he leaves Red Bull then he goes to Ferrari, he's not going to walk out on Red Bull in the hope of getting a seat at either Ferrari or Mercedes.


And both Dan and Helmut Marko have denied this apparently...there's articles on a few F1 sites, but I don't know how reliable they are, or if Dan and Marko are even telling the truth lol - who knows? I guess we'll find out when we find out.

I'd love to see him in a reliable, competitive car though....

Edit: Also, apparently Dan has said he doesn't want to decide until the European stint this year.


Interesting to hear where you read about not deciding until the European stint this year. That is radical as it contradicts so much including people like Webber warning not deciding soon would be to be risk being left out, together with the various reports by both Ricciardo and Red Bull that they have agreed a deadline of 'by June'.

Given how long it takes to put a contract in place and seal the fine details, and that the European swing runs until September.....
could really mean a change.

Note this quote from Ricciardo:
Quote:
"I think realistically around April things will start to be spoken," said Ricciardo at Test One. "After a few races, hopefully I win the first few and I can have a powerful say in what I do!"

From an article posted justlast Month... if there is a newer position of waiting to see how the European swing pans out would be huge - and possibly mean now being prepared to take a year off.


I tried to find where I read it, and I can't, so maybe it was earlier in the year. Ignore it, seeing as I can't back it up :( It may well have been our Australian media, who are pretty useless when it comes to F1 anyway. Apologies.


It not so much you cannot back it up, as you must of read it, but what you can't do is go back and check the exact words. For example, the words 'decide' and 'Europe' could linked by before, or in. In the drivers meeting it was again stated that there is an agreed deadline of by end of April, and they do arrive at least to the cross roads of Eastern Europe with Azerbaijan just before the end of April. ( Wikipedia listing it as 'Continent: Asia / Europe'.)


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PostPosted: Sun Apr 15, 2018 5:47 pm 
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pokerman wrote:
Siao7 wrote:
pokerman wrote:
Siao7 wrote:
pokerman wrote:
I like your analogy as I was going to post something similar myself regarding Verstappen, if you hit someone it can be seen as a 50/50 risk so you can be seen as lucky not to have your race compromised but also unlucky if it is.


Wouldn't 50/50 be the outcome (make it stick or not) and not the risk? The risk can also be very high or very low. Or am I thinking of this the wrong way?

I'm not sure what you mean?


There are only two outcomes, damage or not damage, right? Risk is different, you can make a high risk pass in improbable places or really late braking for example or a low risk pass, like DRS or to a backmarker. There are two different things in my head, I cannot put risk as 50/50

No I wasn't referring to the risk level of the pass but the outcome of hitting another car, in my opinion hitting another car doesn't seem to overly concern Verstappen.

Oh, ok, that makes more sense!


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PostPosted: Sun Apr 15, 2018 7:25 pm 
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I think Ferrari will snap him up. His season against Sebastian was not a fluke, his racecraft is just on another level to everybody else and Ferrari will value that. It really doesn't matter if other drivers can out qualify him by tenths if in races he can make difficult overtakes and they can't. He just has to be in the same ballpark and he can get it done whereas the others are either too hesitant or too reckless. His Italian heritage won't hurt either. He will move because of the money and prestige not necessarily the car. Plus a rematch with Sebastian he's not going to fear.

We are seeing the proper fast Kimi this year however he still does not offer anything to seriously differentiate himself from Vettel and thus will be retired at the end of the year which explains his sullen mood lately as he knows he's not doing enough to fight off the challenge of three fast drivers available in 2019, Ricciardo, Bottas and Alonso. Kimi is still pretty fast in a car that suits him but he has lost the eliteness of his youth which made him such a force in F1 but he could still do very well in other series if he chooses to still race after being let go by Ferrari.

I suspect Bottas will offer enough differentiation to Hamilton this year to retain his seat and I can see Alonso returning back home to Renault to replace Sainz. I actually think Gasly might have a better chance of picking up the spare Red Bull seat than Sainz.

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PostPosted: Sun Apr 15, 2018 7:40 pm 
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If I was a team manager, I would definitely hire him. He is an opportunity maximizer and that is highly valuable.

However, Ferrari wants a lapdog teammate, as evidenced once again today, so they will keep Räikkönen for yet another year of lapdog services.

Will Mercedes do the same? I am curious to find out ...


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PostPosted: Sun Apr 15, 2018 8:07 pm 
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Paolo_Lasardi wrote:
If I was a team manager, I would definitely hire him. He is an opportunity maximizer and that is highly valuable.

However, Ferrari wants a lapdog teammate, as evidenced once again today, so they will keep Räikkönen for yet another year of lapdog services.

Will Mercedes do the same? I am curious to find out ...


Riccardo proved once again today that he is hot commodity. Give him the chance and he will make it happen. Demonstrated that he can make the move when others cannot and had he been in 2nd in bahrain chasing vettel he would have made the pass for the win imo. Any team that over lools him will be foolish to do so. Imo Riccardo isnt a #2 driver and being a "lap boy" for vettel he wont do.

Whom ever is his teammate will have to push themselves everytime out or riccardo will make them look average as he did to vettel before and does to versteppen during races.

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PostPosted: Sun Apr 15, 2018 8:18 pm 
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I honestly think Hamilton will try to sign with Ferrari. Not sure why but my gut tells me that. If so, I can potentially see Ricciardo signing with Mercedes next year. Of course the most likely outcome is till Hamilton re-signing with Mercedes but I can see perhaps Lewis getting the sense that it's about time to jump ship.


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PostPosted: Sun Apr 15, 2018 9:47 pm 
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Whoever goes to Ferrari they would have to have an assurance that the will be "allowed" to beat Vettel. Looking at Kimi's situation I'm not sure they would allow that, he just seems to be their favourite.


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PostPosted: Sun Apr 15, 2018 10:07 pm 
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Option or Prime wrote:
Whoever goes to Ferrari they would have to have an assurance that the will be "allowed" to beat Vettel. Looking at Kimi's situation I'm not sure they would allow that, he just seems to be their favourite.

He's their favorite because he's the faster driver. Does anyone honestly believe they'd treat Hamilton as a #2 driver? Really?

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PostPosted: Sun Apr 15, 2018 10:11 pm 
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Exediron wrote:
Option or Prime wrote:
Whoever goes to Ferrari they would have to have an assurance that the will be "allowed" to beat Vettel. Looking at Kimi's situation I'm not sure they would allow that, he just seems to be their favourite.

He's their favorite because he's the faster driver. Does anyone honestly believe they'd treat Hamilton as a #2 driver? Really?


No.

But then again I do not think they will sign Hamilton (or Ricciardo, for the matter) as long as they keep Vettel. They rather extend Räikkönen from year to year ....


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PostPosted: Mon Apr 16, 2018 5:01 am 
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Daniel should be looking at the situation which happened in the Chinese GP where Ferrari used Raikkonen to hold up Bottas and allow Vettel to attack.

Raikkonen was in a reasonable position until that point, but the strategy almost wrecked his race.

I can’t inagine Mercedes or Red Bull doing the same unless it was very late in the season and the WDC was on the line.

Hamilton to Ferrari sounds interesting.. he hasn’t signed with Mercedes at this point which seems strange. Also very off his game.


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PostPosted: Mon Apr 16, 2018 5:14 am 
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oz_karter wrote:
Daniel should be looking at the situation which happened in the Chinese GP where Ferrari used Raikkonen to hold up Bottas and allow Vettel to attack.

Raikkonen was in a reasonable position until that point, but the strategy almost wrecked his race.

I can’t inagine Mercedes or Red Bull doing the same unless it was very late in the season and the WDC was on the line.

Hamilton to Ferrari sounds interesting.. he hasn’t signed with Mercedes at this point which seems strange. Also very off his game.


Totally agree Dan should be wary of Ferrari. Can he can wangle an agreement that he gets equal treatment? I have no idea. But the way Ferrari treated Kimi was disappointing to watch.

Regarding Lewis, I think if he continues to be "out of sorts" he'll delay resigning as long as he can, also possibly think about leaving.


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PostPosted: Mon Apr 16, 2018 5:40 am 
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Option or Prime wrote:
Whoever goes to Ferrari they would have to have an assurance that the will be "allowed" to beat Vettel. Looking at Kimi's situation I'm not sure they would allow that, he just seems to be their favourite.
Kimi's made that bed, though, to be fair. I do think it's pretty poor of Ferrari but OTOH Kimi just hasn't shown any capacity to be a contender these last few years. I'm pleased to see he's qualifying well again but he really needs to up his game in the races if he wants to be taken seriously.

As far as other drivers go, it really depends who they are. If any of the rumours are correct and the likes of Ricciardo or Hamilton join, I can't see them getting the same treatment.


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PostPosted: Mon Apr 16, 2018 8:13 am 
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I'm just gonna put this out there:

What if Hamilton has been sandbagging these first few races to avoid having Ricciardo as a team mate.
Which could have the following effects:

A. Make Mercedes look less attractive to Ricciardo
B. Make Bottas look more attractive to Mercedes
C. Ricciardo goes to Ferrari - Vettel has tougher team mate/ or Ricciardo stays at Red bull

In the short term Hamilton may lose a couple of victories, but long term he will gain a lot more. Especially if he thinks he can still comfortably win the championship with his current package.
If true Hamilton should start to be back to normal in the next couple of races once Ricciardo's future is settled

...or Hamilton be just off his game a bit :-P


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PostPosted: Mon Apr 16, 2018 8:29 am 
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bashcrash wrote:
I'm just gonna put this out there:

What if Hamilton has been sandbagging these first few races to avoid having Ricciardo as a team mate.
Which could have the following effects:

A. Make Mercedes look less attractive to Ricciardo
B. Make Bottas look more attractive to Mercedes
C. Ricciardo goes to Ferrari - Vettel has tougher team mate/ or Ricciardo stays at Red bull

In the short term Hamilton may lose a couple of victories, but long term he will gain a lot more. Especially if he thinks he can still comfortably win the championship with his current package.
If true Hamilton should start to be back to normal in the next couple of races once Ricciardo's future is settled

...or Hamilton be just off his game a bit :-P

I don't think Hamilton is afraid of Ricciardo. And there's no situation I can see that would have Hamilton risking a 5th title just to avoid a guy who is generally being out-performed by his team mate (in speed, not error-free driving). I think you are putting too much value on Ricciardo's status, tbh.

It's clear Hamilton is off his game. He's even admitted as much, which would make any such subterfuge redundant anyway. I very much doubt Ricciardo factors in his thoughts at all


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PostPosted: Mon Apr 16, 2018 1:40 pm 
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Exediron wrote:
Option or Prime wrote:
Whoever goes to Ferrari they would have to have an assurance that the will be "allowed" to beat Vettel. Looking at Kimi's situation I'm not sure they would allow that, he just seems to be their favourite.

He's their favorite because he's the faster driver. Does anyone honestly believe they'd treat Hamilton as a #2 driver? Really?



"allowed to beat vettel" lol i don't believe mercedes wants a pairing of hamilton/vettel anymore than ferrari would want a pairing of hamilton/vettel. if the championship comes down to the wire between h/v, bottas will get the same treatment as kimi


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PostPosted: Wed Apr 18, 2018 8:45 am 
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I can't work out whether Ricciardo's in a really good position, or actually quite an awkward one.

The positive spin is that if both Ferrari and Mercedes are interested in replacing Raikkonen or Bottas, and consider Ricciardo the leading candidate, then he's basically got his pick of the seats. It would get even better for him if they - and I'm including Red Bull here, too - are all willing to wait until, say, around Spa/Monza before he actually makes his decision. Then he gets around ten more races to see if a) Ferrari have legitimately taken Mercedes' place as the team to beat or b) Mercedes' can fight back and regain the advantage, and even c) where Red Bull and their two potential engine suppliers are at. Then he can make the most informed decision possible and give himself the best chance of being at the best team next year.

The negative spin is that we don't even know if Ferrari and Mercedes are interested in replacing Raikkonen or Bottas. If Kimi is willing to continue doing what he's doing for another season, i.e. being a sacrificial lamb for Vettel, whilst continuing to qualify close to him and picking up decent results when he's given the opportunity to, then I doubt that seat is going to become available. And even if it is available, Ferrari might simply want to bring in another #2 driver. Similiarly, if Bottas continues to actually outperform Hamilton then there is very little chance he'll be dropped. Even if that doesn't happen, if he's keeping close to Lewis then that seat might not become available. And if Red Bull don't feel like waiting and waiting for someone who is looking at potentially leaving the team, they could very easily turn around and tell him "either commit to us today or we'll give the seat to Sainz" and force his hand. The absolute worst case scenario for Ricciardo is that, by looking at the Mercedes and Ferrari seats, he alienates Red Bull to the point where they just promote Sainz anyway, then neither Ferrari or Mercedes change their line-ups and he finds himself looking at Renault and McLaren as his best options for 2018.

Obviously those are both extremes and it is more likely that he simply delays making a decision as long as he can, right up until Red Bull start putting a lot of pressure on him to decide. Wherever he signs he's taking a bit of a leap because nobody is going to be certain who the quickest team will be next year. Maybe he ends up forced to stay at Red Bull and that actually ends up being the place to be, or he goes to Ferrari and next year they're back behind Mercedes, etc.

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PostPosted: Wed Apr 18, 2018 9:08 am 
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Jenson's Understeer wrote:
I can't work out whether Ricciardo's in a really good position, or actually quite an awkward one.


I completely agree and your post overall hits the nail on the head.

The problem is, neither Mercedes or Ferrari have a number 1 driver leaving (although it is possible Lewis could move on).

They also both have solid second drivers who have been performing close to and even outperforming their number 1 drivers at times.

I somewhat feel that it would have been in Ricciardo’s best interests to stay quiet about it all until something was signed. But he knows more about his situation than I do.

I think Mercedes have good reasons to sign him. Lewis can be erratic and if the car isn’t the fastest he can’t drag it to the front. Ricciardo has shown time and time again he can perform in a car which isn’t the quickest.

Mercedes are now in a position where Ferrari seemingly have an edge. They need to know they have a driver who can take opportunities and fight for wins every race. Bottas doesn’t seem to have that and Lewis is showing he doesn’t either.


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PostPosted: Wed Apr 18, 2018 9:55 am 
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oz_karter wrote:
Jenson's Understeer wrote:
I can't work out whether Ricciardo's in a really good position, or actually quite an awkward one.


I completely agree and your post overall hits the nail on the head.

The problem is, neither Mercedes or Ferrari have a number 1 driver leaving (although it is possible Lewis could move on).

They also both have solid second drivers who have been performing close to and even outperforming their number 1 drivers at times.

I somewhat feel that it would have been in Ricciardo’s best interests to stay quiet about it all until something was signed. But he knows more about his situation than I do.

I think Mercedes have good reasons to sign him. Lewis can be erratic and if the car isn’t the fastest he can’t drag it to the front. Ricciardo has shown time and time again he can perform in a car which isn’t the quickest.

Mercedes are now in a position where Ferrari seemingly have an edge. They need to know they have a driver who can take opportunities and fight for wins every race. Bottas doesn’t seem to have that and Lewis is showing he doesn’t either.

BIB: not sure I'd agree with that, tbh. Hamilton is a driver who can normally be counted on to deliver. It's quite rare IMO that someone else will manage to get more out of a car than he will. I also don't see that Ricciardo has done anything that Hamilton hasn't done himself. His last race, for example, Ricciardo was definitely in the quickest car - he didn't overcome any odds.

I could see Mercedes moving to swap Bottas for Ricciardo, though. Bottas has had a few good races but overall I think he's unimpressive and he's just not the right guy to take the team forward should Hamilton indeed leave (and I agree he is a potential flight risk). Ricciardo has also shown himself to be reasonably apolitical and I don't remember any particular scraps with his team mates, although that of course could change with a title on the line.

Ferrari is a difficult one. If the last race is anything to go by, Kimi is completely expendable and they will not run a race in his favour if they have another option. Of course, it has to be said that Kimi has heavily contributed to this state of affairs, by being less than impressive in recent years. He's looking a bit better this year, ironically, but het now he's fighting an uphill battle. If he continues like this Ferrari may well decide to extend. Stranger things have happened, although Vettel's recent statements about welcoming Ricciardo to the Ferrari fold lead me to believe a deal is all but done.

In all honesty, though, I don't really understand Ricciardo's motivation for wanting to leave. He's in a pretty good car and Red Bull have demonstrated that they are more than capable of delivering the equipment regardless of regulation changes. 2021 isn't that far away and with the power supposedly moving away from the manufacturers I think he could do a lot worse than stay where he is. I really don't think a move is the smartest choice for him


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PostPosted: Wed Apr 18, 2018 5:12 pm 
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pc27b wrote:
Exediron wrote:
Option or Prime wrote:
Whoever goes to Ferrari they would have to have an assurance that the will be "allowed" to beat Vettel. Looking at Kimi's situation I'm not sure they would allow that, he just seems to be their favourite.

He's their favorite because he's the faster driver. Does anyone honestly believe they'd treat Hamilton as a #2 driver? Really?



"allowed to beat vettel" lol i don't believe mercedes wants a pairing of hamilton/vettel anymore than ferrari would want a pairing of hamilton/vettel. if the championship comes down to the wire between h/v, bottas will get the same treatment as kimi

Reports were that Mercedes made approaches to both Vettel and Verstappen but were turned down by both drivers.

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PostPosted: Thu Apr 19, 2018 2:20 am 
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Exediron wrote:
Option or Prime wrote:
Whoever goes to Ferrari they would have to have an assurance that the will be "allowed" to beat Vettel. Looking at Kimi's situation I'm not sure they would allow that, he just seems to be their favourite.

He's their favorite because he's the faster driver. Does anyone honestly believe they'd treat Hamilton as a #2 driver? Really?


With Rosberg, Mercedes clearly showed they will allow either driver to win, and treat drivers as equals and not necessarily as #1 and #2.

Ferrari have not had a clear situation to demonstration the same. Clearly if Ferrari contracted Hamilton they would have to resolve this.

If Ricciardo went to Ferrari it is not so clear. In fact Ricciardo faces the risk of being treated as #2 at any of Red Bull, Ferrari or Mercedes.


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PostPosted: Thu Apr 19, 2018 3:28 am 
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Zoue wrote:

In all honesty, though, I don't really understand Ricciardo's motivation for wanting to leave. He's in a pretty good car and Red Bull have demonstrated that they are more than capable of delivering the equipment regardless of regulation changes. 2021 isn't that far away and with the power supposedly moving away from the manufacturers I think he could do a lot worse than stay where he is. I really don't think a move is the smartest choice for him


Ricciardo's now 28 years old. In 2021 he'll be 31 with Verstappen, Ocon, Sainz, Leclerc and co all more experienced, much younger, probably sharper and faster and looking for the same drives he'll be looking for. I don't like his chances of getting a plumb drive at that time with that competition.

There's also no surety as to what will happen to RB's engine supply up until the change of regs. I'm betting on them staying with Renault but they've already had domestics with them in the past and Ric's and Horners comments in China could have Renault having a second look at the divorce papers. Yeah Renault are catching up with Merc & Ferrari and the law of diminishing returns say's they'll eventually get there but that's assuming the other two have or are close to maximizing the development of the engine. If Renault and RB part ways at the end of this season, that'll then leave Honda and it's highly unlikely Honda will deliver a WC for Ric. .

If he's going to jump, to me, it looks like if he doesn't do it this year, this might be his last opportunity to be the #1 pick of the available drivers.

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PostPosted: Thu Apr 19, 2018 5:57 am 
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He will go to Mercedes with Hamilton. An insurance policy for if and when Hamilton leaves.

Ocon to partner Ricciardo when that happens.


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PostPosted: Thu Apr 19, 2018 6:29 am 
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pokerman wrote:
Reports were that Mercedes made approaches to both Vettel and Verstappen but were turned down by both drivers.


Yet they have not even contacted Ricciardo?

Quote:
“I kind of feel like if they want me to race for them they should contact me, but they haven’t,” he told the Times.


This seems to be source for several reports (the express and others) stating Ricciardo has not even yet been contacted by Ferrari or Mercedes.

If he has not even been contacted.... then it could be he will be staying due to lack of options.


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PostPosted: Thu Apr 19, 2018 6:33 am 
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At this point Ricciardo knows that none of the junior team drivers, none of them, are seen as competent or experienced enough to replace him. Gasly could be good, but will probably never be a megastar and in any case he still needs quite some time before being able to competently step up. Hartley needs time as well. Sainz is not looking that great against Hulk atm, he was relatively close to Verstappen (in qualifying at least) but I don't see him pulling that off again.

So all in all RBR will wait on his decision no matter what - unless they pull a rabbit out of their hat and recruit from the outside, but which top driver would join them? Maybe Alonso? Definitely not Vettel or Hamilton.

So he's pretty safe in holding out to see what happens at other teams. Of course, he isn't guaranteed in the slightest to have a seat at either one of Ferrari or Mercedes available to him. The drawback of stalling is that it might cause some internal friction which could be damaging for his future there.

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PostPosted: Thu Apr 19, 2018 7:03 am 
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iano wrote:
Exediron wrote:
Option or Prime wrote:
Whoever goes to Ferrari they would have to have an assurance that the will be "allowed" to beat Vettel. Looking at Kimi's situation I'm not sure they would allow that, he just seems to be their favourite.

He's their favorite because he's the faster driver. Does anyone honestly believe they'd treat Hamilton as a #2 driver? Really?


With Rosberg, Mercedes clearly showed they will allow either driver to win, and treat drivers as equals and not necessarily as #1 and #2.

Ferrari have not had a clear situation to demonstration the same. Clearly if Ferrari contracted Hamilton they would have to resolve this.

If Ricciardo went to Ferrari it is not so clear. In fact Ricciardo faces the risk of being treated as #2 at any of Red Bull, Ferrari or Mercedes.

I don't think that's necessarily the case. Have we forgotten Malaysia '13, where Rosberg was essentially prevented from overtaking Hamilton via team orders? Mercedes are just a likely to orchestrate finishes as most, if it suits them.

In the hybrid era, Rosberg and Hamilton faced zero opposition, so there was absolutely no reason to instigate any kind of team orders. It's only recently that they have even had to take into account that other teams exist. With Bottas, there hasn't yet (from memory) been a situation where he's been in Hamilton's way, so I don't think it's clear cut whether they'd be allowed to race.

I do think the last race has shown that Ferrari have firmly relegated Kimi to support driver role. It's pretty hard to spin that otherwise, in my view. I don't remember seeing anything that blatant from Mercedes, not this early in the season. But, as has been said before, to a certain extent Kimi has made that bed himself with the frankly less than stellar driving in recent years. It's ironic that now he appears to be coming good he's being firmly put in his place, but I don't think he really has anyone else to blame. But the point is this isn't necessarily evidence that it will happen to every driver, unless they too tank after joining. And I don't see the sense in hiring someone like Ricciardo only to try and pigeon-hole him into a support role. If they go for him, to me that signals intent to have two front runners, rather than one driver supporting the other.


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PostPosted: Thu Apr 19, 2018 7:56 am 
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Multi69 wrote:
He will go to Mercedes with Hamilton. An insurance policy for if and when Hamilton leaves.

Ocon to partner Ricciardo when that happens.

+1 :thumbup:

Succession planning should at least be being considered by both Merc and Ferrari. I don’t expect it to happen, but it’s not out of the question for either VET or HAM to retire in a year or two. The teams really don’t want to be caught out if either of them do a Rosberg and retire after the silly season when all of the top tier drivers are signed up for the next season.


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PostPosted: Thu Apr 19, 2018 10:00 am 
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mds wrote:
.....
So all in all RBR will wait on his decision no matter what - unless they pull a rabbit out of their hat and recruit from the outside, but which top driver would join them? Maybe Alonso? Definitely not Vettel or Hamilton.

.......

No, I don't think RBR can wait on his decision 'no matter what'. They will wait on his decision until the agreed deadline, but Red Bull need to be sure the have drivers for both seats for next year, and just waiting and hoping no deal has silently been reached for him to drive elsewhere is too much of a gamble.

On the other side, Ricciardo would not want to negotiate a new contract after all other options have been exhausted and be faced with 'take it, or take a year off'

In the press conference after China, a reporter made reference to the deadline being the end of this month, but I have the impression there is at least one more month - but that is not long at all to finalise contracts.


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PostPosted: Thu Apr 19, 2018 10:03 am 
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iano wrote:
mds wrote:
.....
So all in all RBR will wait on his decision no matter what - unless they pull a rabbit out of their hat and recruit from the outside, but which top driver would join them? Maybe Alonso? Definitely not Vettel or Hamilton.

.......

No, I don't think RBR can wait on his decision 'no matter what'. They will wait on his decision until the agreed deadline, but Red Bull need to be sure the have drivers for both seats for next year, and just waiting and hoping no deal has silently been reached for him to drive elsewhere is too much of a gamble.

On the other side, Ricciardo would not want to negotiate a new contract after all other options have been exhausted and be faced with 'take it, or take a year off'

In the press conference after China, a reporter made reference to the deadline being the end of this month, but I have the impression there is at least one more month - but that is not long at all to finalise contracts.


Red Bulls problem is that Sainz is looking rather 2nd rate at the moment. It doesn't do much for there negotiating position.


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PostPosted: Thu Apr 19, 2018 10:32 am 
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mikeyg123 wrote:
iano wrote:
mds wrote:
.....
So all in all RBR will wait on his decision no matter what - unless they pull a rabbit out of their hat and recruit from the outside, but which top driver would join them? Maybe Alonso? Definitely not Vettel or Hamilton.

.......

No, I don't think RBR can wait on his decision 'no matter what'. They will wait on his decision until the agreed deadline, but Red Bull need to be sure the have drivers for both seats for next year, and just waiting and hoping no deal has silently been reached for him to drive elsewhere is too much of a gamble.

On the other side, Ricciardo would not want to negotiate a new contract after all other options have been exhausted and be faced with 'take it, or take a year off'

In the press conference after China, a reporter made reference to the deadline being the end of this month, but I have the impression there is at least one more month - but that is not long at all to finalise contracts.


Red Bulls problem is that Sainz is looking rather 2nd rate at the moment. It doesn't do much for there negotiating position.


Exactly this. At this moment Ricciardo is holding the cards.
If Sainz starts beating Hulk comprehensively, then that might tip the scales, but that will also be a gradual situation that Ricciardo can see coming and respond to in the way needed.

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PostPosted: Thu Apr 19, 2018 12:49 pm 
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ricciardo to Haas, well i can hope lol. doesn't seem like he is helping his own negotiations out with his recent comments?


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PostPosted: Thu Apr 19, 2018 1:30 pm 
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pc27b wrote:
ricciardo to Haas, well i can hope lol. doesn't seem like he is helping his own negotiations out with his recent comments?


What recent comments?

I think his recent win probably does more good for his stock than anything he could have possibly said to bring it down.

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PostPosted: Thu Apr 19, 2018 2:55 pm 
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Toby. wrote:
pc27b wrote:
ricciardo to Haas, well i can hope lol. doesn't seem like he is helping his own negotiations out with his recent comments?


What recent comments?

I think his recent win probably does more good for his stock than anything he could have possibly said to bring it down.



yesterday he said ferrari and mercedes had not contacted him. i don't see how that helps negotiations for him, if it is even true.

my guess is, ferrari isn't an option, they have a couple of their own guys they will choose between.
everyone knows he is talented, and seems well liked. if mercedes doesn't call, would he leave for renault or mclaren ? i wouldn't think so unless the money is waaaaay more than red bull.


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PostPosted: Thu Apr 19, 2018 8:49 pm 
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pc27b wrote:
Toby. wrote:
pc27b wrote:
ricciardo to Haas, well i can hope lol. doesn't seem like he is helping his own negotiations out with his recent comments?


What recent comments?

I think his recent win probably does more good for his stock than anything he could have possibly said to bring it down.



yesterday he said ferrari and mercedes had not contacted him. i don't see how that helps negotiations for him, if it is even true.

my guess is, ferrari isn't an option, they have a couple of their own guys they will choose between.
everyone knows he is talented, and seems well liked. if mercedes doesn't call, would he leave for renault or mclaren ? i wouldn't think so unless the money is waaaaay more than red bull.


Why on earth would he leave for Renault or McLaren? He wants to go forward, not backward. Both Renault (even though a works team) and McLaren have a lot to prove at the moment in the design department...

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PostPosted: Thu Apr 19, 2018 9:47 pm 
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pc27b wrote:
Toby. wrote:
pc27b wrote:
ricciardo to Haas, well i can hope lol. doesn't seem like he is helping his own negotiations out with his recent comments?


What recent comments?

I think his recent win probably does more good for his stock than anything he could have possibly said to bring it down.



yesterday he said ferrari and mercedes had not contacted him. i don't see how that helps negotiations for him, if it is even true.

my guess is, ferrari isn't an option, they have a couple of their own guys they will choose between.
everyone knows he is talented, and seems well liked. if mercedes doesn't call, would he leave for renault or mclaren ? i wouldn't think so unless the money is waaaaay more than red bull.



Which leave Ricciardo with Red Bull as his only choice top team seat. Unlike Max where they were convinced they had to outbid someone, this time they are dealing with a driver who is either out of a top seat or he accepts their offer. Likely result: Lower paying contract than Max which puts in clearly in the second driver category.


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PostPosted: Thu Apr 19, 2018 10:24 pm 
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iano wrote:
pc27b wrote:
Toby. wrote:
pc27b wrote:
ricciardo to Haas, well i can hope lol. doesn't seem like he is helping his own negotiations out with his recent comments?


What recent comments?

I think his recent win probably does more good for his stock than anything he could have possibly said to bring it down.



yesterday he said ferrari and mercedes had not contacted him. i don't see how that helps negotiations for him, if it is even true.

my guess is, ferrari isn't an option, they have a couple of their own guys they will choose between.
everyone knows he is talented, and seems well liked. if mercedes doesn't call, would he leave for renault or mclaren ? i wouldn't think so unless the money is waaaaay more than red bull.



Which leave Ricciardo with Red Bull as his only choice top team seat. Unlike Max where they were convinced they had to outbid someone, this time they are dealing with a driver who is either out of a top seat or he accepts their offer. Likely result: Lower paying contract than Max which puts in clearly in the second driver category.


How bout #1 status at Renault with Sainz, as per the agreement between RB & Renault when he moved, going to the big brother Red Bull team?

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PostPosted: Thu Apr 19, 2018 11:10 pm 
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I can see Renault offer something around the figure of 30 million for a two year +1 year option and official #1 status with Hulk (Sainz to RB)


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