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PostPosted: Mon May 07, 2018 10:18 am 
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Zoue wrote:
I've said it before and I'll say it again: it makes zero sense for Dan to leave Red Bull at the moment. They are improving practically with every race and once again look like they have the best chassis, even overcoming their PU deficit in races. With the new engine regulations around the corner which are supposed to equalise the engines to a certain extent, you'd have to put money on Red Bull being at the front again sooner rather than later


He has to wait until 2021 then for a car which can challenge for the championship. Even when he gets that he still has to beat Max.

Or he could move to Ferrari next year (if this move is possible), have a car capable of the championship, and a teammate that he knows he is faster than.


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PostPosted: Mon May 07, 2018 11:01 am 
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davidheath461 wrote:
Zoue wrote:
I've said it before and I'll say it again: it makes zero sense for Dan to leave Red Bull at the moment. They are improving practically with every race and once again look like they have the best chassis, even overcoming their PU deficit in races. With the new engine regulations around the corner which are supposed to equalise the engines to a certain extent, you'd have to put money on Red Bull being at the front again sooner rather than later


He has to wait until 2021 then for a car which can challenge for the championship. Even when he gets that he still has to beat Max.

Or he could move to Ferrari next year (if this move is possible), have a car capable of the championship, and a teammate that he knows he is faster than.

I'm not sure the first is true. The Red Bulls look to be on a par with the others in race pace and it's only their power deficit in qualifying which puts them at a disadvantage. Renault claim - which I'll admit is not the same as proof - that they have major engine and fuel upgrade coming, so that may even things out for them. But it seems that they have a strong chance to be competitive before the new engine regs come about.

Ferrari do look strong at the moment and it wouldn't be an unattractive choice for Ricciardo. But he would IMO have similar competitive issues from Vettel as he does with Verstappen and I don't think that alone would be a reason to move. Instant competitiveness might be, but again red Bull are so close you'd have to ask whether it's worth the gamble. If the engines will be closer from 2021 onwards, then I'd suggest Red Bull is as good a place to be as any other team.

Of course, if Red Bull lose their Renault engines then that could all change and it depends on how far along Honda are. I suspect that's one reason Ricciardo is waiting to commit to Red Bull as I'm sure he won't want to do an Alonso. But even then the engine simplification will mean that they face a brighter future when the new regs kick in. I still think he could do a lot worse than staying where he is


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PostPosted: Mon May 07, 2018 11:13 am 
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Llotyhy wrote:
iano wrote:
Llotyhy wrote:
I haven't seen any evidence that Mercedes and/or Ferrari are even interested in Ricciardo, apart from the political 'he's an excellent driver'-talk. Some journalists are acting like he can work for whatever team he wants, he only has to ask and that's far from the truth in my opinion.

His best option is to extend with Red Bull.


Best Option..... or only real option, at least only option for a team that can compete for wins.

So given the team has him in a bad negotiation position, do they give him a contract to match Verstappen because that will be best for team moral...... or a lesser contract because they can and that will save money and cement Verstappen as #1


I don't think he can ask for Verstappen's salary to be honest. Verstappen is valued higher I think, not just by RB, but also by the competition, so they needed to tie him down quickly, because everyone was openly flirting with Max last season. Ricciardo is not on the radar of Merc at least. Toto just said they are only looking at Hamilton, Bottas and Ocon. Ferrari have an amazing driver academy as well and have talents waiting in line as well. If it's too early for Leclerc they'll just extend Kimi another season.

I'd be surprised if he gets offered more than half of Verstappen's salary. And yes, he should take that anyway.


Half?

If Max keeps performing, or not performing more like, then Dan becomes more expensive by the race as he's the one scoring the points. Max meanwhile is behind Alonso in the standings after nearly a quarter of the season with no reliability bad luck to blame. Think about that.

Dan'll get at least as much as Max from Red Bull, if not more.

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-Eddie Dennis, describing the dominance of Jim Clark in the Lotus 49 at Spa 1967


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PostPosted: Mon May 07, 2018 11:16 am 
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Zoue wrote:
I'm not sure the first is true. The Red Bulls look to be on a par with the others in race pace and it's only their power deficit in qualifying which puts them at a disadvantage. Renault claim - which I'll admit is not the same as proof - that they have major engine and fuel upgrade coming, so that may even things out for them. But it seems that they have a strong chance to be competitive before the new engine regs come about.


Where did they look on par in terms of race pace? We only really have 2 races where we can judge their race pace (China and Baku) and on both those races they looked slower than Ferrari/Mercedes.

The qualifying disadvantage is huge too - even if they did have the race pace, we have seen that overtaking is difficult in these cars.

Renault have made lots of promises in the past and usually under-delivered. I'll believe it when i see a noticeable improvement.

Quote:
Ferrari do look strong at the moment and it wouldn't be an unattractive choice for Ricciardo. But he would IMO have similar competitive issues from Vettel as he does with Verstappen and I don't think that alone would be a reason to move. Instant competitiveness might be, but again red Bull are so close you'd have to ask whether it's worth the gamble. If the engines will be closer from 2021 onwards, then I'd suggest Red Bull is as good a place to be as any other team.


He never had competitive issues the last time he was paired with Vettel. Don't see why it will be different this time.

Red Bull are not as close as you think. Moving to Ferrari isn't a gamble since Ferrari provides a safer guarantee of a championship challenging car. Waiting until 2021 is a gamble since no one knows how the pecking order will reshuffle.

Quote:
Of course, if Red Bull lose their Renault engines then that could all change and it depends on how far along Honda are. I suspect that's one reason Ricciardo is waiting to commit to Red Bull as I'm sure he won't want to do an Alonso. But even then the engine simplification will mean that they face a brighter future when the new regs kick in. I still think he could do a lot worse than staying where he is


Sure, if he stays in Red Bull he will be guaranteed at least the 3rd fastest car. I don't see why he shouldn't try and get into the fastest car, if it is possible.


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PostPosted: Mon May 07, 2018 12:01 pm 
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davidheath461 wrote:
Rockie wrote:
Zoue wrote:
I've said it before and I'll say it again: it makes zero sense for Dan to leave Red Bull at the moment. They are improving practically with every race and once again look like they have the best chassis, even overcoming their PU deficit in races. With the new engine regulations around the corner which are supposed to equalise the engines to a certain extent, you'd have to put money on Red Bull being at the front again sooner rather than later


Asides from this which is the most important point, should he go to Mercedes or Ferrari and get beat by either Hamilton or Vettel, especially Vettel it will be the beginning of the end for him.


We've already seen he is a faster driver than Vettel. I doubt this is the kind of thing that is playing on Dan's mind.

yeah I'd agree he probably won't worry about racing Vettel. But there again I don't think he should necessarily be worried about facing Verstappen. If he's a top driver he shouldn't be afraid of anyone in the same machinery and swapping Red Bull for either Mercedes or Ferrari won't really change much for him from a competitive team mate perspective


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PostPosted: Mon May 07, 2018 12:17 pm 
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davidheath461 wrote:
Zoue wrote:
I'm not sure the first is true. The Red Bulls look to be on a par with the others in race pace and it's only their power deficit in qualifying which puts them at a disadvantage. Renault claim - which I'll admit is not the same as proof - that they have major engine and fuel upgrade coming, so that may even things out for them. But it seems that they have a strong chance to be competitive before the new engine regs come about.


Where did they look on par in terms of race pace? We only really have 2 races where we can judge their race pace (China and Baku) and on both those races they looked slower than Ferrari/Mercedes.

The qualifying disadvantage is huge too - even if they did have the race pace, we have seen that overtaking is difficult in these cars.

Renault have made lots of promises in the past and usually under-delivered. I'll believe it when i see a noticeable improvement.

Quote:
Ferrari do look strong at the moment and it wouldn't be an unattractive choice for Ricciardo. But he would IMO have similar competitive issues from Vettel as he does with Verstappen and I don't think that alone would be a reason to move. Instant competitiveness might be, but again red Bull are so close you'd have to ask whether it's worth the gamble. If the engines will be closer from 2021 onwards, then I'd suggest Red Bull is as good a place to be as any other team.


He never had competitive issues the last time he was paired with Vettel. Don't see why it will be different this time.

Red Bull are not as close as you think. Moving to Ferrari isn't a gamble since Ferrari provides a safer guarantee of a championship challenging car. Waiting until 2021 is a gamble since no one knows how the pecking order will reshuffle.

Quote:
Of course, if Red Bull lose their Renault engines then that could all change and it depends on how far along Honda are. I suspect that's one reason Ricciardo is waiting to commit to Red Bull as I'm sure he won't want to do an Alonso. But even then the engine simplification will mean that they face a brighter future when the new regs kick in. I still think he could do a lot worse than staying where he is


Sure, if he stays in Red Bull he will be guaranteed at least the 3rd fastest car. I don't see why he shouldn't try and get into the fastest car, if it is possible.

re: your first point: in Bahrain Ricciardo was all over the back of Kimi's gearbox and was very much on the pace of the Ferrari. And the Bulls were putting in competitive times in Baku despite effectively slowing each other down. Race pace is not Red Bull's issue. It's qualifying where they have a pretty big deficit and this is indeed something that might be a factor in any decision making.

re your second point: I think you've misunderstood. I was saying that if he was leaving Red Bull because of getting too much competition from Max then I don't think he'll have any let up at Ferrari. He won't be joining the team to be an undisputed number one and will have to compete just as he does now.

Ferrari do look attractive now. But Red Bull have reportedly the best chassis on the grid, which doesn't seem like hyperbole when you see what they have done with their power deficit. My point was that the teams are converging on performance all the time and he doesn't want to be jumping ship just while Red Bull look to be coming good


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PostPosted: Mon May 07, 2018 12:19 pm 
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Zoue wrote:
davidheath461 wrote:
Rockie wrote:
Zoue wrote:
I've said it before and I'll say it again: it makes zero sense for Dan to leave Red Bull at the moment. They are improving practically with every race and once again look like they have the best chassis, even overcoming their PU deficit in races. With the new engine regulations around the corner which are supposed to equalise the engines to a certain extent, you'd have to put money on Red Bull being at the front again sooner rather than later


Asides from this which is the most important point, should he go to Mercedes or Ferrari and get beat by either Hamilton or Vettel, especially Vettel it will be the beginning of the end for him.


We've already seen he is a faster driver than Vettel. I doubt this is the kind of thing that is playing on Dan's mind.

yeah I'd agree he probably won't worry about racing Vettel. But there again I don't think he should necessarily be worried about facing Verstappen. If he's a top driver he shouldn't be afraid of anyone in the same machinery and swapping Red Bull for either Mercedes or Ferrari won't really change much for him from a competitive team mate perspective


Perhaps it is better to be #2 to an older driver than to a younger driver. Better to be 'the future' than 'the past'?

So much about the coverage of the Buku collision seems strange with the same people saying Verstappen caused the crash but the the blame should be shared equally. At first the conspiracies seemed to point to Red Bull pushing Ricciardo to share blame....but the more that comes out the more it seems it could be the F1 establishment overall who see Verstappen as the driver then need because a driver his age being successful can set records and grab headlines.

It is also the worst case to have to compete with a driver in your own team who will be so reckless, especially if he seems to be given some licence to act that way.

However it all may be mute.... as both Ferrari and Mercedes may be happy with their current line up. I do not think Ricciardo as any choice but to accept whatever Red Bull offer him.


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PostPosted: Mon May 07, 2018 1:24 pm 
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Lotus49 wrote:
Llotyhy wrote:
iano wrote:
Llotyhy wrote:
I haven't seen any evidence that Mercedes and/or Ferrari are even interested in Ricciardo, apart from the political 'he's an excellent driver'-talk. Some journalists are acting like he can work for whatever team he wants, he only has to ask and that's far from the truth in my opinion.

His best option is to extend with Red Bull.


Best Option..... or only real option, at least only option for a team that can compete for wins.

So given the team has him in a bad negotiation position, do they give him a contract to match Verstappen because that will be best for team moral...... or a lesser contract because they can and that will save money and cement Verstappen as #1


I don't think he can ask for Verstappen's salary to be honest. Verstappen is valued higher I think, not just by RB, but also by the competition, so they needed to tie him down quickly, because everyone was openly flirting with Max last season. Ricciardo is not on the radar of Merc at least. Toto just said they are only looking at Hamilton, Bottas and Ocon. Ferrari have an amazing driver academy as well and have talents waiting in line as well. If it's too early for Leclerc they'll just extend Kimi another season.

I'd be surprised if he gets offered more than half of Verstappen's salary. And yes, he should take that anyway.


Half?

If Max keeps performing, or not performing more like, then Dan becomes more expensive by the race as he's the one scoring the points. Max meanwhile is behind Alonso in the standings after nearly a quarter of the season with no reliability bad luck to blame. Think about that.

Dan'll get at least as much as Max from Red Bull, if not more.


Max is reportedly making base 10 and up to 35 million a year including bonuses, about the salary Alonso and Hamilton make and a bit less than Vettel. Ricciardo makes 6.5 now. There's no way they'll pay Ricciardo over 17,5 next season, you can quote me on this.


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PostPosted: Mon May 07, 2018 3:43 pm 
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I'd say that's wrong.

Ricciardo is proving to be consistent and while max has at times looked superior, the frequency of issues he's caused for himself and others is a bit of a concern, regardless what his team says. He is a bit overzealous at times and many times a tad wee bit too aggressive in how he "defends" against guys looking to slip past him, and many times he's been VERY lucky the other drivers were quick thinking enough to avoid disaster, but by no means does that mean that because there was no contact, he didn't do anything wrong.

I'd be willing to bet Ricciardo is going to get a significant increase in salary when negotiation time comes around.

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PostPosted: Mon May 07, 2018 3:58 pm 
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Llotyhy wrote:
Lotus49 wrote:
Llotyhy wrote:
iano wrote:
Llotyhy wrote:
I haven't seen any evidence that Mercedes and/or Ferrari are even interested in Ricciardo, apart from the political 'he's an excellent driver'-talk. Some journalists are acting like he can work for whatever team he wants, he only has to ask and that's far from the truth in my opinion.

His best option is to extend with Red Bull.


Best Option..... or only real option, at least only option for a team that can compete for wins.

So given the team has him in a bad negotiation position, do they give him a contract to match Verstappen because that will be best for team moral...... or a lesser contract because they can and that will save money and cement Verstappen as #1


I don't think he can ask for Verstappen's salary to be honest. Verstappen is valued higher I think, not just by RB, but also by the competition, so they needed to tie him down quickly, because everyone was openly flirting with Max last season. Ricciardo is not on the radar of Merc at least. Toto just said they are only looking at Hamilton, Bottas and Ocon. Ferrari have an amazing driver academy as well and have talents waiting in line as well. If it's too early for Leclerc they'll just extend Kimi another season.

I'd be surprised if he gets offered more than half of Verstappen's salary. And yes, he should take that anyway.


Half?

If Max keeps performing, or not performing more like, then Dan becomes more expensive by the race as he's the one scoring the points. Max meanwhile is behind Alonso in the standings after nearly a quarter of the season with no reliability bad luck to blame. Think about that.

Dan'll get at least as much as Max from Red Bull, if not more.


Max is reportedly making base 10 and up to 35 million a year including bonuses, about the salary Alonso and Hamilton make and a bit less than Vettel. Ricciardo makes 6.5 now. There's no way they'll pay Ricciardo over 17,5 next season, you can quote me on this.


His base never mind bonuses will be at least 17.5 next contract wherever he ends up. If it's at Red Bull there's no chance he signs a contract for less money than the driver he's currently beating comfortably. He's Red Bull's most consistent point scorer and that won't come cheaply.

I guess we'll find out soon enough.

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-Eddie Dennis, describing the dominance of Jim Clark in the Lotus 49 at Spa 1967


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PostPosted: Mon May 07, 2018 4:10 pm 
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Lotus49 wrote:

Max is reportedly making base 10 and up to 35 million a year including bonuses, about the salary Alonso and Hamilton make and a bit less than Vettel. Ricciardo makes 6.5 now. There's no way they'll pay Ricciardo over 17,5 next season, you can quote me on this.


His base never mind bonuses will be at least 17.5 next contract wherever he ends up. If it's at Red Bull there's no chance he signs a contract for less money than the driver he's currently beating comfortably. He's Red Bull's most consistent point scorer and that won't come cheaply.

I guess we'll find out soon enough.[/quote]

If he doesn't get an offer from Ferrari or Mercedes he will take whatever Red Bull will offer him. I also don't thin it's true to say he is Red Bull's most consistent point scorer. Not recently anyway. Verstappen has scored more points than Ricciardo over the last 16 races.

I think it's looking more and more likely Ricciardo will stay.


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PostPosted: Mon May 07, 2018 4:20 pm 
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Zoue wrote:
davidheath461 wrote:
Zoue wrote:
I'm not sure the first is true. The Red Bulls look to be on a par with the others in race pace and it's only their power deficit in qualifying which puts them at a disadvantage. Renault claim - which I'll admit is not the same as proof - that they have major engine and fuel upgrade coming, so that may even things out for them. But it seems that they have a strong chance to be competitive before the new engine regs come about.


Where did they look on par in terms of race pace? We only really have 2 races where we can judge their race pace (China and Baku) and on both those races they looked slower than Ferrari/Mercedes.

The qualifying disadvantage is huge too - even if they did have the race pace, we have seen that overtaking is difficult in these cars.

Renault have made lots of promises in the past and usually under-delivered. I'll believe it when i see a noticeable improvement.

Quote:
Ferrari do look strong at the moment and it wouldn't be an unattractive choice for Ricciardo. But he would IMO have similar competitive issues from Vettel as he does with Verstappen and I don't think that alone would be a reason to move. Instant competitiveness might be, but again red Bull are so close you'd have to ask whether it's worth the gamble. If the engines will be closer from 2021 onwards, then I'd suggest Red Bull is as good a place to be as any other team.


He never had competitive issues the last time he was paired with Vettel. Don't see why it will be different this time.

Red Bull are not as close as you think. Moving to Ferrari isn't a gamble since Ferrari provides a safer guarantee of a championship challenging car. Waiting until 2021 is a gamble since no one knows how the pecking order will reshuffle.

Quote:
Of course, if Red Bull lose their Renault engines then that could all change and it depends on how far along Honda are. I suspect that's one reason Ricciardo is waiting to commit to Red Bull as I'm sure he won't want to do an Alonso. But even then the engine simplification will mean that they face a brighter future when the new regs kick in. I still think he could do a lot worse than staying where he is


Sure, if he stays in Red Bull he will be guaranteed at least the 3rd fastest car. I don't see why he shouldn't try and get into the fastest car, if it is possible.

re: your first point: in Bahrain Ricciardo was all over the back of Kimi's gearbox and was very much on the pace of the Ferrari. And the Bulls were putting in competitive times in Baku despite effectively slowing each other down. Race pace is not Red Bull's issue. It's qualifying where they have a pretty big deficit and this is indeed something that might be a factor in any decision making.

re your second point: I think you've misunderstood. I was saying that if he was leaving Red Bull because of getting too much competition from Max then I don't think he'll have any let up at Ferrari. He won't be joining the team to be an undisputed number one and will have to compete just as he does now.

Ferrari do look attractive now. But Red Bull have reportedly the best chassis on the grid, which doesn't seem like hyperbole when you see what they have done with their power deficit. My point was that the teams are converging on performance all the time and he doesn't want to be jumping ship just while Red Bull look to be coming good


1. So you're saying that Red Bull's race pace is as good as Ferrari's based on a handful of laps in Bahrain, whilst ignoring Red Bull's inferior race pace in China and Baku? :lol: The Red Bull's were 2 seconds slower than Vettel in the first part of the race in Bahrain! I think you are out of touch with reality.

2. At Red Bull, Max has shown himself to be the faster driver, more often than not, especially in qualifying. It would be different at Ferrari since we know he is faster than Vettel in both qualifying and race pace. You need to forget about all this "undisputed number 1 status' nonsense. If Ferrari see that Ricciardo is outperforming Vettel, then they will back Ricciardo for the title.

3. Red Bull reportedly has the best chassis on the grid since 2014. It hasn't won them any championships. Ferrari have the best car, chassis and engine, and they are coming good now, not in 2021!


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PostPosted: Mon May 07, 2018 6:04 pm 
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mikeyg123 wrote:
If he doesn't get an offer from Ferrari or Mercedes he will take whatever Red Bull will offer him. I also don't thin it's true to say he is Red Bull's most consistent point scorer. Not recently anyway. Verstappen has scored more points than Ricciardo over the last 16 races.

I think it's looking more and more likely Ricciardo will stay.


I can't agree as I think 16 is a bit of a convenient cut off point is it not as it includes all of Dan's bad luck at the end of last season and start of this one whereas the majority of Max's bad luck came before that. Why not just say since the start of last year or the start of this one? I think that shows who's the most consistent point scorer.

I think he might stay yeah but to gamble on Honda as well he'll want comped at this stage of his career and accepting less money than the guy you're outperforming and outscoring sends a poor message and almost admits you're playing second fiddle within the team and I just can't see it.

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-Eddie Dennis, describing the dominance of Jim Clark in the Lotus 49 at Spa 1967


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PostPosted: Mon May 07, 2018 6:46 pm 
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Lotus49 wrote:
mikeyg123 wrote:
If he doesn't get an offer from Ferrari or Mercedes he will take whatever Red Bull will offer him. I also don't thin it's true to say he is Red Bull's most consistent point scorer. Not recently anyway. Verstappen has scored more points than Ricciardo over the last 16 races.

I think it's looking more and more likely Ricciardo will stay.


I can't agree as I think 16 is a bit of a convenient cut off point is it not as it includes all of Dan's bad luck at the end of last season and start of this one whereas the majority of Max's bad luck came before that. Why not just say since the start of last year or the start of this one? I think that shows who's the most consistent point scorer.

I think he might stay yeah but to gamble on Honda as well he'll want comped at this stage of his career and accepting less money than the guy you're outperforming and outscoring sends a poor message and almost admits you're playing second fiddle within the team and I just can't see it.


It's not convenient I picked it out especially as that is the cut off. Go back to 17 and it's Ricciardo. But for the last 16 races Verstappen has been the better points scorer. I agree the stat is limited in it's usefulness but from reading some of the posts around the forum lately, if you hadn't watched the races you wouldn't expect Verstappen to be the larger point score for the last 11 months.

Seeing as nobody outside of the inner circle actually knows what either of them earn I'm not really sure it sends out any message. And as I've indicated "outperforming and outscoring" depends on the frame of reference. Ricciardo has outscored Verstappen in the last 1-7, Verstappen in the last 8-16 and Ricciardo anything beyond 17.


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PostPosted: Mon May 07, 2018 7:10 pm 
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mikeyg123 wrote:
Lotus49 wrote:
I can't agree as I think 16 is a bit of a convenient cut off point is it not as it includes all of Dan's bad luck at the end of last season and start of this one whereas the majority of Max's bad luck came before that. Why not just say since the start of last year or the start of this one? I think that shows who's the most consistent point scorer.

It's not convenient I picked it out especially as that is the cut off. Go back to 17 and it's Ricciardo. But for the last 16 races Verstappen has been the better points scorer. I agree the stat is limited in it's usefulness but from reading some of the posts around the forum lately, if you hadn't watched the races you wouldn't expect Verstappen to be the larger point score for the last 11 months.

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/How_to_Li ... Statistics

If you have to cherry pick a favorable sample set to make your point, maybe it's time to step back and reconsider your point.

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PostPosted: Mon May 07, 2018 7:15 pm 
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Exediron wrote:
mikeyg123 wrote:
Lotus49 wrote:
I can't agree as I think 16 is a bit of a convenient cut off point is it not as it includes all of Dan's bad luck at the end of last season and start of this one whereas the majority of Max's bad luck came before that. Why not just say since the start of last year or the start of this one? I think that shows who's the most consistent point scorer.

It's not convenient I picked it out especially as that is the cut off. Go back to 17 and it's Ricciardo. But for the last 16 races Verstappen has been the better points scorer. I agree the stat is limited in it's usefulness but from reading some of the posts around the forum lately, if you hadn't watched the races you wouldn't expect Verstappen to be the larger point score for the last 11 months.

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/How_to_Li ... Statistics

If you have to cherry pick a favorable sample set to make your point, maybe it's time to step back and reconsider your point.


My counter point to that would be that you would also have to cherry pick a sample to put Ricciardo ahead as well. Remember my qualifying comment of "recently". Obviously I accept that Ricciardo has outscored Verstappen in total.


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PostPosted: Mon May 07, 2018 7:24 pm 
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mikeyg123 wrote:
Exediron wrote:
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/How_to_Lie_with_Statistics

If you have to cherry pick a favorable sample set to make your point, maybe it's time to step back and reconsider your point.

My counter point to that would be that you would also have to cherry pick a sample to put Ricciardo ahead as well. Remember my qualifying comment of "recently". Obviously I accept that Ricciardo has outscored Verstappen in total.

Since whole seasons are what counts in F1, I'd think a whole season would be the standard block to use when comparing driver scoring. This year is much too small of a data set, but for the only whole season Ricciardo and Verstappen have been teammate, Ricciardo scored more points.

However, I would also say that - prior to this year - the thing keeping Max from scoring consistently was not his own driving, it was reliability. For the first four races of this year it has arguably been him, but we'll have to see if that trend continues.

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PostPosted: Mon May 07, 2018 8:10 pm 
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Exediron wrote:
mikeyg123 wrote:
Exediron wrote:
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/How_to_Lie_with_Statistics

If you have to cherry pick a favorable sample set to make your point, maybe it's time to step back and reconsider your point.

My counter point to that would be that you would also have to cherry pick a sample to put Ricciardo ahead as well. Remember my qualifying comment of "recently". Obviously I accept that Ricciardo has outscored Verstappen in total.

Since whole seasons are what counts in F1, I'd think a whole season would be the standard block to use when comparing driver scoring. This year is much too small of a data set, but for the only whole season Ricciardo and Verstappen have been teammate, Ricciardo scored more points.

However, I would also say that - prior to this year - the thing keeping Max from scoring consistently was not his own driving, it was reliability. For the first four races of this year it has arguably been him, but we'll have to see if that trend continues.


Unless I'm missing understanding I feel that's a little harsh. When he finishes often it's because the car was able to finish? Well yes... That's true of every driver for every finish. I would certainly agree he very much needs to buck the trend of the start of this season. Anyway, we are getting off topic. My only point was that it's not a given that Ricciardo would be regarded as the better point scorer because that has not always been the case.

Personally I really rate Ricciardo. If I was in charge at Merc or Ferrari I would definitely be offering him a deal.


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PostPosted: Mon May 07, 2018 9:50 pm 
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mikeyg123 wrote:
Exediron wrote:
However, I would also say that - prior to this year - the thing keeping Max from scoring consistently was not his own driving, it was reliability.

Unless I'm missing understanding I feel that's a little harsh. When he finishes often it's because the car was able to finish? Well yes... That's true of every driver for every finish.

You appear to be misunderstanding me, since what I said was basically the opposite of that. When he didn't finish (pre-2018) it was because the car wasn't able to finish, not because of anything he did. The vast majority of his DNFs weren't his fault.

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PostPosted: Mon May 07, 2018 9:52 pm 
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Exediron wrote:
mikeyg123 wrote:
Exediron wrote:
However, I would also say that - prior to this year - the thing keeping Max from scoring consistently was not his own driving, it was reliability.

Unless I'm missing understanding I feel that's a little harsh. When he finishes often it's because the car was able to finish? Well yes... That's true of every driver for every finish.

You appear to be misunderstanding me, since what I said was basically the opposite of that. When he didn't finish (pre-2018) it was because the car wasn't able to finish, not because of anything he did. The vast majority of his DNFs weren't his fault.


:thumbup: Gotcha


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PostPosted: Mon May 07, 2018 10:41 pm 
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Lotus49 wrote:
Llotyhy wrote:
Lotus49 wrote:
Llotyhy wrote:
Llotyhy wrote:
I haven't seen any evidence that Mercedes and/or Ferrari are even interested in Ricciardo, apart from the political 'he's an excellent driver'-talk. Some journalists are acting like he can work for whatever team he wants, he only has to ask and that's far from the truth in my opinion.

His best option is to extend with Red Bull.




I don't think he can ask for Verstappen's salary to be honest. Verstappen is valued higher I think, not just by RB, but also by the competition, so they needed to tie him down quickly, because everyone was openly flirting with Max last season. Ricciardo is not on the radar of Merc at least. Toto just said they are only looking at Hamilton, Bottas and Ocon. Ferrari have an amazing driver academy as well and have talents waiting in line as well. If it's too early for Leclerc they'll just extend Kimi another season.

I'd be surprised if he gets offered more than half of Verstappen's salary. And yes, he should take that anyway.


Half?

If Max keeps performing, or not performing more like, then Dan becomes more expensive by the race as he's the one scoring the points. Max meanwhile is behind Alonso in the standings after nearly a quarter of the season with no reliability bad luck to blame. Think about that.

Dan'll get at least as much as Max from Red Bull, if not more.


Max is reportedly making base 10 and up to 35 million a year including bonuses, about the salary Alonso and Hamilton make and a bit less than Vettel. Ricciardo makes 6.5 now. There's no way they'll pay Ricciardo over 17,5 next season, you can quote me on this.


His base never mind bonuses will be at least 17.5 next contract wherever he ends up. If it's at Red Bull there's no chance he signs a contract for less money than the driver he's currently beating comfortably. He's Red Bull's most consistent point scorer and that won't come cheaply.

I guess we'll find out soon enough.


When the contract with Verstappen was signed, Verstappen had been on a string of strong results, and seen as outperforming Ricciardo in the lead up to the contract. Plus, there was the suggestion other teams were negotiating to steal Verstappen from Red Bull. Red Bull felt by securing Verstappen, they have a key driver secured for years to come.

Since the contract was signed, Verstappen has not performed well. It even seems possible Verstappen let that big contract got to his head, and started feeling "this contract makes me no1 in the team" etc. But Red Bull cannot go back and say...actually we expected you to out perform Ricciardo and you haven't ...so we are going to discount your contract until you grow up a little.

Nor with they listen to Ricciardo say "I am driving far better than him this year so I deserve more" because Max's contract was not signed on the basis of his driving this year.

Ricciardo is in the situation of being second driver from a contract point of view as they already have one driver, the logical anchor of the team for years to come, secured. With one driver secured, what do you pay to sign up a second driver who does not appear to have any other options?

There is an argument that they should give him the same deal as Verstappen, even if only for one year, and this would be best for team moral overall. But it is an expensive way to secure team moral when Ricciardo has little choice if they offer less.

The greater the disparity between contracts, the more Ricciardo would have reason to feel he is treated as second,
the more some of the team will seek maximise the greatest investment, and perhaps the more Verstappen will continue to act as though he the king.

But they can save a lot of money by paying the driver with no options less.


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PostPosted: Tue May 08, 2018 2:42 am 
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iano wrote:
But they can save a lot of money by paying the driver with no options less.


That's making the (false) assumption that Ricciardo has no options outside of Red Bull. Let's say he's on about $7 million now, if he gave Mercedes or Ferrari a call saying he'd be happy to join them at that rate for 2019 both teams would offer him contracts on the spot. I would bet a steak dinner on that.

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PostPosted: Tue May 08, 2018 6:26 am 
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Toby. wrote:
iano wrote:
But they can save a lot of money by paying the driver with no options less.


That's making the (false) assumption that Ricciardo has no options outside of Red Bull. Let's say he's on about $7 million now, if he gave Mercedes or Ferrari a call saying he'd be happy to join them at that rate for 2019 both teams would offer him contracts on the spot. I would bet a steak dinner on that.


Just to be clear ... I meant less paying the driver with no option less than they pay under the contract with Verstappen who they paid a premium to secure.

But I do not agree that all Ricciardo has to do is say he will contract to other teams for $7 million and they would offer him contracts on the spot. Consider Mercedes: If Hamilton is ready to sign a new contract, they will keep him. Bottas has just won the Lorenzo Bandini Trophy, and Toto Wolf has just been quoted as saying he is happy with his current drivers.
Ferrari and not about to dump Vettel or do anything to upset him. Vettel is happy being paired with Raikkonen who is current driving very well. Only if they are ready to dump Raikkonen would they have room for Ricciardo and it is not clear they need to dump him.

Of course I am only 'reading the tea leaves'- but it seems it could really be true that as Ricciardo has actually said: Neither team has approached him.


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PostPosted: Tue May 08, 2018 6:41 am 
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iano wrote:
But I do not agree that all Ricciardo has to do is say he will contract to other teams for $7 million and they would offer him contracts on the spot. Consider Mercedes: If Hamilton is ready to sign a new contract, they will keep him. Bottas has just won the Lorenzo Bandini Trophy, and Toto Wolf has just been quoted as saying he is happy with his current drivers.
Ferrari and not about to dump Vettel or do anything to upset him. Vettel is happy being paired with Raikkonen who is current driving very well. Only if they are ready to dump Raikkonen would they have room for Ricciardo and it is not clear they need to dump him.

Of course I am only 'reading the tea leaves'- but it seems it could really be true that as Ricciardo has actually said: Neither team has approached him.



This is the whole crux of the matter obviously. Toto said in the same interview that if Hamilton or Bottas would for some reason not be at Mercedes next year, Ocon would be. Ferrari are happy with their current drivers as well and have a ton of talents coming up. It would be a very strange decision to hire Ricciardo, effectively blocking off Leclerc and co. from reaching the main team for years to come... so they won't. The only team having been quoted they fancy Ricciardo apart form Red Bull is Renault, and they themselves think they need to improve first before they can lure him in.

When all is said and done, Ricciardo will stay at Red Bull, and he'll get a pay raise, to 12-15 or so most likely, which is a great amount of money. Neither Rosberg nor Button ever made more than that money for example, and they were both world champions. And yes, he'll make a third to half of Verstappen then.


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PostPosted: Tue May 08, 2018 8:06 am 
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iano wrote:
Lotus49 wrote:
Llotyhy wrote:
Lotus49 wrote:
Llotyhy wrote:



I don't think he can ask for Verstappen's salary to be honest. Verstappen is valued higher I think, not just by RB, but also by the competition, so they needed to tie him down quickly, because everyone was openly flirting with Max last season. Ricciardo is not on the radar of Merc at least. Toto just said they are only looking at Hamilton, Bottas and Ocon. Ferrari have an amazing driver academy as well and have talents waiting in line as well. If it's too early for Leclerc they'll just extend Kimi another season.

I'd be surprised if he gets offered more than half of Verstappen's salary. And yes, he should take that anyway.


Half?

If Max keeps performing, or not performing more like, then Dan becomes more expensive by the race as he's the one scoring the points. Max meanwhile is behind Alonso in the standings after nearly a quarter of the season with no reliability bad luck to blame. Think about that.

Dan'll get at least as much as Max from Red Bull, if not more.


Max is reportedly making base 10 and up to 35 million a year including bonuses, about the salary Alonso and Hamilton make and a bit less than Vettel. Ricciardo makes 6.5 now. There's no way they'll pay Ricciardo over 17,5 next season, you can quote me on this.


His base never mind bonuses will be at least 17.5 next contract wherever he ends up. If it's at Red Bull there's no chance he signs a contract for less money than the driver he's currently beating comfortably. He's Red Bull's most consistent point scorer and that won't come cheaply.

I guess we'll find out soon enough.


When the contract with Verstappen was signed, Verstappen had been on a string of strong results, and seen as outperforming Ricciardo in the lead up to the contract. Plus, there was the suggestion other teams were negotiating to steal Verstappen from Red Bull. Red Bull felt by securing Verstappen, they have a key driver secured for years to come.

Since the contract was signed, Verstappen has not performed well. It even seems possible Verstappen let that big contract got to his head, and started feeling "this contract makes me no1 in the team" etc. But Red Bull cannot go back and say...actually we expected you to out perform Ricciardo and you haven't ...so we are going to discount your contract until you grow up a little.

Nor with they listen to Ricciardo say "I am driving far better than him this year so I deserve more" because Max's contract was not signed on the basis of his driving this year.

Ricciardo is in the situation of being second driver from a contract point of view as they already have one driver, the logical anchor of the team for years to come, secured. With one driver secured, what do you pay to sign up a second driver who does not appear to have any other options?

There is an argument that they should give him the same deal as Verstappen, even if only for one year, and this would be best for team moral overall. But it is an expensive way to secure team moral when Ricciardo has little choice if they offer less.

The greater the disparity between contracts, the more Ricciardo would have reason to feel he is treated as second,
the more some of the team will seek maximise the greatest investment, and perhaps the more Verstappen will continue to act as though he the king.

But they can save a lot of money by paying the driver with no options less.


They don't have to discount Max's contract or anything like that, they'll just pay whatever Dan is worth to them if they want to keep him. And they're not going to offer the guy currently on top half of what the guy getting beat is getting and if they did Dan's not going to accept that insult.

Look at what Rosberg got for his new deal despite losing more often than not and driving a rocketship others would've driven for free. Same principle here except Dan is scoring more and is generally viewed as a safer pair of hands and is now outperforming Max as well.

I'm also not convinced Dan has as little options as some on here do, the teams and drivers talk a lot of nonsense during this time of year as to not give up any high ground in negotiations and as a consensus top 5 for Dan that new deal will come with a sizeable pay bump wherever he lands.

Red Bull are a little different as they uses bonuses more than the other top teams to top up lower base salaries but there's no way Dan will be on half of Max's salary with any new deal, it's just daft. Bottas is on 8m for example and he's never been driver of the year or viewed as Top5. Dan has and has beaten two fellow Top5 drivers over a season.

Dan'll get over 17.5m from any new deal I promise you. If he goes to Ferrari or Mercedes he'll get Rosberg money 25-30m. Red Bull similar to whatever Max gets.

You can all rub my nose in it if I'm wrong. :-P

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PostPosted: Tue May 08, 2018 8:11 am 
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There are a lot of assumptions being made on here. I shouldn't put too much stock into any public announcements at this stage. All these people are seasoned negotiators and none of them are likely to be putting their negotiating positions out in the open. I should be very surprised if e.g. Mercedes and Ricciardo('s management) aren't at least talking, despite what Wolff says. Same goes for Ferrari


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PostPosted: Tue May 08, 2018 8:13 am 
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Lotus49 wrote:
iano wrote:
Lotus49 wrote:
Llotyhy wrote:
Lotus49 wrote:
Half?

If Max keeps performing, or not performing more like, then Dan becomes more expensive by the race as he's the one scoring the points. Max meanwhile is behind Alonso in the standings after nearly a quarter of the season with no reliability bad luck to blame. Think about that.

Dan'll get at least as much as Max from Red Bull, if not more.


Max is reportedly making base 10 and up to 35 million a year including bonuses, about the salary Alonso and Hamilton make and a bit less than Vettel. Ricciardo makes 6.5 now. There's no way they'll pay Ricciardo over 17,5 next season, you can quote me on this.


His base never mind bonuses will be at least 17.5 next contract wherever he ends up. If it's at Red Bull there's no chance he signs a contract for less money than the driver he's currently beating comfortably. He's Red Bull's most consistent point scorer and that won't come cheaply.

I guess we'll find out soon enough.


When the contract with Verstappen was signed, Verstappen had been on a string of strong results, and seen as outperforming Ricciardo in the lead up to the contract. Plus, there was the suggestion other teams were negotiating to steal Verstappen from Red Bull. Red Bull felt by securing Verstappen, they have a key driver secured for years to come.

Since the contract was signed, Verstappen has not performed well. It even seems possible Verstappen let that big contract got to his head, and started feeling "this contract makes me no1 in the team" etc. But Red Bull cannot go back and say...actually we expected you to out perform Ricciardo and you haven't ...so we are going to discount your contract until you grow up a little.

Nor with they listen to Ricciardo say "I am driving far better than him this year so I deserve more" because Max's contract was not signed on the basis of his driving this year.

Ricciardo is in the situation of being second driver from a contract point of view as they already have one driver, the logical anchor of the team for years to come, secured. With one driver secured, what do you pay to sign up a second driver who does not appear to have any other options?

There is an argument that they should give him the same deal as Verstappen, even if only for one year, and this would be best for team moral overall. But it is an expensive way to secure team moral when Ricciardo has little choice if they offer less.

The greater the disparity between contracts, the more Ricciardo would have reason to feel he is treated as second,
the more some of the team will seek maximise the greatest investment, and perhaps the more Verstappen will continue to act as though he the king.

But they can save a lot of money by paying the driver with no options less.


They don't have to discount Max's contract or anything like that, they'll just pay whatever Dan is worth to them if they want to keep him. And they're not going to offer the guy currently on top half of what the guy getting beat is getting and if they did Dan's not going to accept that insult.

Look at what Rosberg got for his new deal despite losing more often than not and driving a rocketship others would've driven for free. Same principle here except Dan is scoring more and is generally viewed as a safer pair of hands and is now outperforming Max as well.

I'm also not convinced Dan has as little options as some on here do, the teams and drivers talk a lot of nonsense during this time of year as to not give up any high ground in negotiations and as a consensus top 5 for Dan that new deal will come with a sizeable pay bump wherever he lands.

Red Bull are a little different as they uses bonuses more than the other top teams to top up lower base salaries but there's no way Dan will be on half of Max's salary with any new deal, it's just daft. Bottas is on 8m for example and he's never been driver of the year or viewed as Top5. Dan has and has beaten two fellow Top5 drivers over a season.

Dan'll get over 17.5m from any new deal I promise you. If he goes to Ferrari or Mercedes he'll get Rosberg money 25-30m. Red Bull similar to whatever Max gets.

You can all rub my nose in it if I'm wrong. :-P

Our posts crossed over, but the BIB is exactly what I think. Public announcements are just smoke and mirrors at this stage


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PostPosted: Tue May 08, 2018 8:16 am 
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Llotyhy wrote:
iano wrote:
But I do not agree that all Ricciardo has to do is say he will contract to other teams for $7 million and they would offer him contracts on the spot. Consider Mercedes: If Hamilton is ready to sign a new contract, they will keep him. Bottas has just won the Lorenzo Bandini Trophy, and Toto Wolf has just been quoted as saying he is happy with his current drivers.
Ferrari and not about to dump Vettel or do anything to upset him. Vettel is happy being paired with Raikkonen who is current driving very well. Only if they are ready to dump Raikkonen would they have room for Ricciardo and it is not clear they need to dump him.

Of course I am only 'reading the tea leaves'- but it seems it could really be true that as Ricciardo has actually said: Neither team has approached him.



This is the whole crux of the matter obviously. Toto said in the same interview that if Hamilton or Bottas would for some reason not be at Mercedes next year, Ocon would be. Ferrari are happy with their current drivers as well and have a ton of talents coming up. It would be a very strange decision to hire Ricciardo, effectively blocking off Leclerc and co. from reaching the main team for years to come... so they won't. The only team having been quoted they fancy Ricciardo apart form Red Bull is Renault, and they themselves think they need to improve first before they can lure him in.

When all is said and done, Ricciardo will stay at Red Bull, and he'll get a pay raise, to 12-15 or so most likely, which is a great amount of money. Neither Rosberg nor Button ever made more than that money for example, and they were both world champions. And yes, he'll make a third to half of Verstappen then.


Rosberg got at least 18m base with bonuses increasing to 25m (36-50m was the quoted figures for the two year deal) for his extension and that was before his title, while he was in a rocketship that Alonso was offering to drive for free and was getting beat more often than not by Lewis.

Complete opposite to Dan's situation except the title where they are in the same boat. Plus you'd be asking Dan to potentially gamble on Honda and risk the best years of his career.

That'll get rewarded/compensated if Red Bull want to keep boasting about having the best line up.

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PostPosted: Tue May 08, 2018 8:17 am 
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Zoue wrote:
Lotus49 wrote:
iano wrote:
Lotus49 wrote:
Llotyhy wrote:

Max is reportedly making base 10 and up to 35 million a year including bonuses, about the salary Alonso and Hamilton make and a bit less than Vettel. Ricciardo makes 6.5 now. There's no way they'll pay Ricciardo over 17,5 next season, you can quote me on this.


His base never mind bonuses will be at least 17.5 next contract wherever he ends up. If it's at Red Bull there's no chance he signs a contract for less money than the driver he's currently beating comfortably. He's Red Bull's most consistent point scorer and that won't come cheaply.

I guess we'll find out soon enough.


When the contract with Verstappen was signed, Verstappen had been on a string of strong results, and seen as outperforming Ricciardo in the lead up to the contract. Plus, there was the suggestion other teams were negotiating to steal Verstappen from Red Bull. Red Bull felt by securing Verstappen, they have a key driver secured for years to come.

Since the contract was signed, Verstappen has not performed well. It even seems possible Verstappen let that big contract got to his head, and started feeling "this contract makes me no1 in the team" etc. But Red Bull cannot go back and say...actually we expected you to out perform Ricciardo and you haven't ...so we are going to discount your contract until you grow up a little.

Nor with they listen to Ricciardo say "I am driving far better than him this year so I deserve more" because Max's contract was not signed on the basis of his driving this year.

Ricciardo is in the situation of being second driver from a contract point of view as they already have one driver, the logical anchor of the team for years to come, secured. With one driver secured, what do you pay to sign up a second driver who does not appear to have any other options?

There is an argument that they should give him the same deal as Verstappen, even if only for one year, and this would be best for team moral overall. But it is an expensive way to secure team moral when Ricciardo has little choice if they offer less.

The greater the disparity between contracts, the more Ricciardo would have reason to feel he is treated as second,
the more some of the team will seek maximise the greatest investment, and perhaps the more Verstappen will continue to act as though he the king.

But they can save a lot of money by paying the driver with no options less.


They don't have to discount Max's contract or anything like that, they'll just pay whatever Dan is worth to them if they want to keep him. And they're not going to offer the guy currently on top half of what the guy getting beat is getting and if they did Dan's not going to accept that insult.

Look at what Rosberg got for his new deal despite losing more often than not and driving a rocketship others would've driven for free. Same principle here except Dan is scoring more and is generally viewed as a safer pair of hands and is now outperforming Max as well.

I'm also not convinced Dan has as little options as some on here do, the teams and drivers talk a lot of nonsense during this time of year as to not give up any high ground in negotiations and as a consensus top 5 for Dan that new deal will come with a sizeable pay bump wherever he lands.

Red Bull are a little different as they uses bonuses more than the other top teams to top up lower base salaries but there's no way Dan will be on half of Max's salary with any new deal, it's just daft. Bottas is on 8m for example and he's never been driver of the year or viewed as Top5. Dan has and has beaten two fellow Top5 drivers over a season.

Dan'll get over 17.5m from any new deal I promise you. If he goes to Ferrari or Mercedes he'll get Rosberg money 25-30m. Red Bull similar to whatever Max gets.

You can all rub my nose in it if I'm wrong. :-P

Our posts crossed over, but the BIB is exactly what I think. Public announcements are just smoke and mirrors at this stage


Yep agree.

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PostPosted: Tue May 08, 2018 12:24 pm 
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I'd like Ricciardo to go to Mercedes, as that could be a great battle with Hamilton. Toto Wolff unfortunately seems to have a veto on that (despite having a vested interest in Bottas). IMO Toto is a weak manager and want's to make his own life easier (and maybe job safer), so I can understand his motives.

The Ricciardo/Verstappen situation is supportive of Toto's stand - as is last year's result for Mercedes, but while I enjoy the Max/Daniel battles, I'd like to see drivers like Ricciardo, Alonso etc. be able to get into a car which has a chance of winning the World Title.
Barring Mercedes, then I'd like Ricciardo to go to Ferrari, for similar reasons.

It's understandable if Hamilton and Vettel don't want Ricciardo as a team mate - as with Toto, no-one want's a more difficult job for the same money.


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PostPosted: Tue May 08, 2018 1:27 pm 
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Zoue wrote:
Our posts crossed over, but the BIB is exactly what I think. Public announcements are just smoke and mirrors at this stage


good point - why bother with the public announcements if not having to answer a question in an interview you were required to give


babararacucudada wrote:
I'd like Ricciardo to go to Mercedes, as that could be a great battle with Hamilton. Toto Wolff unfortunately seems to have a veto on that (despite having a vested interest in Bottas). IMO Toto is a weak manager and want's to make his own life easier (and maybe job safer), so I can understand his motives.

The Ricciardo/Verstappen situation is supportive of Toto's stand - as is last year's result for Mercedes, but while I enjoy the Max/Daniel battles, I'd like to see drivers like Ricciardo, Alonso etc. be able to get into a car which has a chance of winning the World Title.
Barring Mercedes, then I'd like Ricciardo to go to Ferrari, for similar reasons.

It's understandable if Hamilton and Vettel don't want Ricciardo as a team mate - as with Toto, no-one want's a more difficult job for the same money.



Toto came out and effectively denied he was interested in Ricciardo. Why bother? Was he just answering a question as best he could... or is it smoke and mirrors

I think he was saying what he feels, but I could be being gullible.


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PostPosted: Wed Jun 27, 2018 2:02 am 
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I'm surprised this thread has gone so quiet lately, especially since right now is probably when all the meetings and conversations are taking place to determine which seat Ricciardo lands in next year.

To summarise the reports & rumours recently:

    McLaren has had conversations with Ricciardo and reportedly offered $20M per year
    Ferrari are no longer interested as the price is too high when they already pay Vettel a packet
    Leclerc is rumoured to be a possible replacement for Raikkonen
    Renault are interested in Ricciardo
    Red Bull will use Honda engines from 2019
    Sainz is happy to stay at Renault
    Hamilton is close to a deal at Mercedes, but also seems to now be a rapper under the name XNDA?
    Wolff seems to think Bottas will be at Mercedes in 2019

If all of these reports are to be believed, it would seem that Ricciardo's best option is to stay at Red Bull and take a chance on the Honda with a two-year deal. The dangers are that the Honda could be problematic and that Verstappen's contract ends next year, meaning he could take any sought after seat before Ricciardo becomes available again.

I really don't think he would accept an offer at McLaren, even for a highly inflated price. Ricciardo has stated over and over he wants to win a world title and be in a car capable of it next year. McLaren are nowhere near being able to offer that.

Renault are probably a better option, but it's a big step backwards. Renault haven't been able to produce a stellar engine and there's no sign of this changing. The engine has improved, but it's not really threatening the silver and red cars. The Renault team are also still building, seemingly playing the long game. There's potential there, but they won't deliver Ricciardo a Mercedes killer in 2019.

If we have learned anything from silly seasons in the past, it's to take reports and quotes from team principles with a grain of salt. Many of the big moves in the past were repeatedly denied before finally being announced later in the year.

I still think Ricciardo is a good chance at Ferrari or Mercedes, who wouldn't be stupid to grab the opportunity while they can. When the Red Bull is in a position to compete, Ricciardo has shown he is the best overtaker in the business and can take the win when it's available. He's got the ability to win titles. I would even go as far as saying he's a better shot than Vettel.


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PostPosted: Wed Jun 27, 2018 7:23 am 
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oz_karter wrote:
I'm surprised this thread has gone so quiet lately, especially since right now is probably when all the meetings and conversations are taking place to determine which seat Ricciardo lands in next year.

To summarise the reports & rumours recently:

    McLaren has had conversations with Ricciardo and reportedly offered $20M per year
    Ferrari are no longer interested as the price is too high when they already pay Vettel a packet
    Leclerc is rumoured to be a possible replacement for Raikkonen
    Renault are interested in Ricciardo
    Red Bull will use Honda engines from 2019
    Sainz is happy to stay at Renault
    Hamilton is close to a deal at Mercedes, but also seems to now be a rapper under the name XNDA?
    Wolff seems to think Bottas will be at Mercedes in 2019

If all of these reports are to be believed, it would seem that Ricciardo's best option is to stay at Red Bull and take a chance on the Honda with a two-year deal. The dangers are that the Honda could be problematic and that Verstappen's contract ends next year, meaning he could take any sought after seat before Ricciardo becomes available again.

I really don't think he would accept an offer at McLaren, even for a highly inflated price. Ricciardo has stated over and over he wants to win a world title and be in a car capable of it next year. McLaren are nowhere near being able to offer that.

Renault are probably a better option, but it's a big step backwards. Renault haven't been able to produce a stellar engine and there's no sign of this changing. The engine has improved, but it's not really threatening the silver and red cars. The Renault team are also still building, seemingly playing the long game. There's potential there, but they won't deliver Ricciardo a Mercedes killer in 2019.

If we have learned anything from silly seasons in the past, it's to take reports and quotes from team principles with a grain of salt. Many of the big moves in the past were repeatedly denied before finally being announced later in the year.

I still think Ricciardo is a good chance at Ferrari or Mercedes, who wouldn't be stupid to grab the opportunity while they can. When the Red Bull is in a position to compete, Ricciardo has shown he is the best overtaker in the business and can take the win when it's available. He's got the ability to win titles. I would even go as far as saying he's a better shot than Vettel.


Update on that last point: https://www.planetf1.com/news/hamilton-agrees-new-40m-a-year-deal/


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PostPosted: Wed Jun 27, 2018 7:31 am 
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oz_karter wrote:
I still think Ricciardo is a good chance at Ferrari or Mercedes, who wouldn't be stupid to grab the opportunity while they can. When the Red Bull is in a position to compete, Ricciardo has shown he is the best overtaker in the business and can take the win when it's available. He's got the ability to win titles. I would even go as far as saying he's a better shot than Vettel.


I'm sure you do, but he's yet to prove he can be more than a plucky underdog and can hold up an entire season of battling for a title. He's got the driving ability to win titles, I'm sure, but that alone isn't enough.

I don't agree he has a good chance at Ferrari or Mercedes. I think his chances are pretty slim.

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PostPosted: Wed Jun 27, 2018 8:12 am 
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mds wrote:
oz_karter wrote:
I still think Ricciardo is a good chance at Ferrari or Mercedes, who wouldn't be stupid to grab the opportunity while they can. When the Red Bull is in a position to compete, Ricciardo has shown he is the best overtaker in the business and can take the win when it's available. He's got the ability to win titles. I would even go as far as saying he's a better shot than Vettel.


I'm sure you do, but he's yet to prove he can be more than a plucky underdog and can hold up an entire season of battling for a title. He's got the driving ability to win titles, I'm sure, but that alone isn't enough.

I don't agree he has a good chance at Ferrari or Mercedes. I think his chances are pretty slim.


Plucky underdog??

He's topped a 4x WC, is widely regarded a the best overtaker in the field and is always in discussions when it comes to who is the best driver on the grid. I wouldn't exactly describe that as the characteristics of the stereotypical underdog.

Webber would fit into that category. Barricello wouldve, Massa too. Not Ricciardo.

I think you're assumption that his chances of driving for Merc & Ferrari are slim is a tad optimistic. I reckon those boats, especially the silver one, has well & truly sailed.

I like the look of #1 at Renault if they're keen but I think his future lies with Red Bull and sadly, no drivers championship.

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PostPosted: Wed Jun 27, 2018 8:29 am 
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Jezza13 wrote:
Plucky underdog??

He's topped a 4x WC, is widely regarded a the best overtaker in the field and is always in discussions when it comes to who is the best driver on the grid. I wouldn't exactly describe that as the characteristics of the stereotypical underdog.

Webber would fit into that category. Barricello wouldve, Massa too. Not Ricciardo.


Is he a title favorite, or has he been, at any point in his career? Or even a serious contender?
The answer is no. Since he's been at RBR he's been in the underdog position:
Quote:
underdog
ˈʌndədɒɡ/Submit
noun
a competitor thought to have little chance of winning a fight or contest.


The underdog position is a rewarding one from a specator's point of view - you aren't really expected to win so if you don't that's OK, if you do people take notice.

The moment you get into a real championship battle, expectations are elevated, the game is raised and the effect on things like attitude and morale are not to be underestimated. He might utterly shine, he might not. But we don't know and to say at this point he would be a better bet than Vettel... Well, it's in ones right to think that but it's far from certain.

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PostPosted: Wed Jun 27, 2018 8:55 am 
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Jezza13 wrote:
mds wrote:
oz_karter wrote:
I still think Ricciardo is a good chance at Ferrari or Mercedes, who wouldn't be stupid to grab the opportunity while they can. When the Red Bull is in a position to compete, Ricciardo has shown he is the best overtaker in the business and can take the win when it's available. He's got the ability to win titles. I would even go as far as saying he's a better shot than Vettel.


I'm sure you do, but he's yet to prove he can be more than a plucky underdog and can hold up an entire season of battling for a title. He's got the driving ability to win titles, I'm sure, but that alone isn't enough.

I don't agree he has a good chance at Ferrari or Mercedes. I think his chances are pretty slim.


Plucky underdog??

He's topped a 4x WC, is widely regarded a the best overtaker in the field and is always in discussions when it comes to who is the best driver on the grid. I wouldn't exactly describe that as the characteristics of the stereotypical underdog.

Webber would fit into that category. Barricello wouldve, Massa too. Not Ricciardo.

I think you're assumption that his chances of driving for Merc & Ferrari are slim is a tad optimistic. I reckon those boats, especially the silver one, has well & truly sailed.

I like the look of #1 at Renault if they're keen but I think his future lies with Red Bull and sadly, no drivers championship.


Yes, yes, but no. In discussion of being the best driver in the grid?????????? When? How? By who?

He is a very very good driver, I put him above Massa Rubens and Webber, but not in the discussion of the best driver on the grid when you have Hamilton, Alonso and Vettel. And I know that he beat Vettel in their one year together when Vettel struggled with that car, but equally you wouldn't call Button better than Hamilton, would you?


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PostPosted: Wed Jun 27, 2018 9:19 am 
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mds wrote:
Jezza13 wrote:
Plucky underdog??

He's topped a 4x WC, is widely regarded a the best overtaker in the field and is always in discussions when it comes to who is the best driver on the grid. I wouldn't exactly describe that as the characteristics of the stereotypical underdog.

Webber would fit into that category. Barricello wouldve, Massa too. Not Ricciardo.


Is he a title favorite, or has he been, at any point in his career? Or even a serious contender?
The answer is no. Since he's been at RBR he's been in the underdog position:
Quote:
underdog
ˈʌndədɒɡ/Submit
noun
a competitor thought to have little chance of winning a fight or contest.


The underdog position is a rewarding one from a specator's point of view - you aren't really expected to win so if you don't that's OK, if you do people take notice.

The moment you get into a real championship battle, expectations are elevated, the game is raised and the effect on things like attitude and morale are not to be underestimated. He might utterly shine, he might not. But we don't know and to say at this point he would be a better bet than Vettel... Well, it's in ones right to think that but it's far from certain.


I think you're fundamentally correct, but the fact that he hasn't had the machinery to compete in a World Championship doesn't mean we should presume he can't if he does have the machinery. After all he's competed for years now against drivers like Lewis Hamilton, Sebastian Vettel, Nico Rosberg and Fernando Alonso and has shown himself to be able to take it to them (when the opportunity presents).

Given that he joined Vettel's team and comfortably defeated him week-in, week-out shows he's got what it takes to be in the garage next to a four-time World Champion and not be phased by it.

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PostPosted: Wed Jun 27, 2018 9:21 am 
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Siao7 wrote:
He is a very very good driver, I put him above Massa Rubens and Webber, but not in the discussion of the best driver on the grid when you have Hamilton, Alonso and Vettel. And I know that he beat Vettel in their one year together when Vettel struggled with that car, but equally you wouldn't call Button better than Hamilton, would you?


He could have the potential to be a kind of Alonso type, in that he may not be THE outright fastest on the grid but very fast nonetheless and also with great racing instinct.

But we'll have to see him in a championship battle to prove that.

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PostPosted: Wed Jun 27, 2018 9:21 am 
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Siao7 wrote:
Jezza13 wrote:
mds wrote:
oz_karter wrote:
I still think Ricciardo is a good chance at Ferrari or Mercedes, who wouldn't be stupid to grab the opportunity while they can. When the Red Bull is in a position to compete, Ricciardo has shown he is the best overtaker in the business and can take the win when it's available. He's got the ability to win titles. I would even go as far as saying he's a better shot than Vettel.


I'm sure you do, but he's yet to prove he can be more than a plucky underdog and can hold up an entire season of battling for a title. He's got the driving ability to win titles, I'm sure, but that alone isn't enough.

I don't agree he has a good chance at Ferrari or Mercedes. I think his chances are pretty slim.


Plucky underdog??

He's topped a 4x WC, is widely regarded a the best overtaker in the field and is always in discussions when it comes to who is the best driver on the grid. I wouldn't exactly describe that as the characteristics of the stereotypical underdog.

Webber would fit into that category. Barricello wouldve, Massa too. Not Ricciardo.

I think you're assumption that his chances of driving for Merc & Ferrari are slim is a tad optimistic. I reckon those boats, especially the silver one, has well & truly sailed.

I like the look of #1 at Renault if they're keen but I think his future lies with Red Bull and sadly, no drivers championship.


Yes, yes, but no. In discussion of being the best driver in the grid?????????? When? How? By who?

He is a very very good driver, I put him above Massa Rubens and Webber, but not in the discussion of the best driver on the grid when you have Hamilton, Alonso and Vettel. And I know that he beat Vettel in their one year together when Vettel struggled with that car, but equally you wouldn't call Button better than Hamilton, would you?


2016
https://www.foxsports.com.au/motorsport/formula-one/twotime-champion-fernando-alonso-rates-daniel-ricciardo-formula-1s-top-driver/news-story/892d525affbf5d89fd93ee5c17d383df

https://www.motoring.com.au/motorsport-ricciardo-rated-best-driver-in-f1-105047/

2017
https://realsport101.com/news/sports/racing/f1/daniel-ricciardo-best-driver-f1-right-now/

Why should he not be considered better than Vettel? In their year together Ricciardo beat Vettel because Vettel simply wasn't good enough to beat him. No if's or buts. Based on the only evidence available, yes, Ricciardo is better than Vettel.

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