lamo wrote:
kleefton wrote:
lamo wrote:
mds wrote:
lamo wrote:
Look at the data, look at the times. The Ferrari was poor on its tyres in both stints and in both stints Vettels times dropped off slightly earlier than the tyres were expected to go.
An "expectation", though, is not an exact determination. Expectations can or can't come through in the real actual world. Vettel had to find the optimal balance between preserving them to go the full distance, and driving fast enough to fend off the Mercs that would hold a fast rhythm until the end of the race. And he did just that.
He won the race but that does not mean he did a great job with the tyres, he destroyed the tyres and won largely because the Mercedes pit wall completely misjudged the race and backed way off to save tyres for an expected Vettel SS push at the end. That is what won him the race. He did not do a good job in keeping his tyres alive, his pace at the end was terrible. Yes he still won the race, but Kimi would have won it if he got out the pits - that's how bad Vettels S tyre stint was - that a car that was 5 seconds behind him could beat him by stopping with 20 laps to go. If that did happen, would we all be saying how good Vettels soft tyre stint was? No. The headlines would be he destroyed them. Headline writers are so fickle. Ironically if Kimi stayed in the race Vettel would have likely been 3rd too, because Bottas (knowing Kimi was coming) would not have slowed down so much for 10 laps and caught Vettel a lot earlier.
I think you are forgetting that the original plan for Vettel was to do a 2 stopper. He had to change his strategy on the fly. When Raikonnen went down, he got the message that the strategy was changing. So you can't blame him for running out of tires at the end. He probably was pushing harder than necessary early in that second stint, anticipating to stop again. It was obvious, because he was very agressive with Lewis, once he came upon him. But once Raikonnen went down, it became 1 versus 2 for Ferrari, so their only chance at winning the race was to let Vettel try the one stopper.
I think Ferrari also got caught out with how quick the mercs were on the medium tire.
The time sheet doesn’t show that, its seems clear he was looking after his tyres from the very start of that stint. Unless he was just slow on the soft tyre. Both Bottas and Kimi were catching him. The fact that on his 18th lap he was just 0.1 off his initial pace suggests he was taking it quite easy early on.
Ferrari did not switch to a 1 stop the moment Kimi went out, it would have been on there radar as soon as they saw Bottas put mediums on.
The exact radio message relayed to Vettel was: " Plan D, plan D, Kimi has retired with an issue" The message was broadcast around lap 40. What else could this mean? This was right about the time Vettel would come in for ss and go on attack mode at the end, but the problem is that he had 2 mercedes in his pit window and the win was going to be impossible because in order to achieve it he would have to overtake both. That is why he stayed out.
And he was building a gap to Bottas between laps 30-40. He gained about 3.5 seconds. Bottas was not catching him in that time span. It looks to me like he was pushing pretty hard because he was about to pit. But then the radio message came.
Vettel Bottas
30 1:35.502[1] 1:35.011[2] +0.491 -4.175 15
31 1:35.315[1] 1:35.344[2] -0.029 -4.204 16
32 1:34.887[1] 1:35.028[2] -0.141 -4.345 17
33 1:34.880[1] 1:34.922[2] -0.042 -4.387 18
34 1:35.089[1] 1:34.986[2] +0.103 -4.284 16
35 1:34.729[1] 1:35.493[2] -0.764 -5.048 19
36 1:34.812[1] 1:34.985[2] -0.173 -5.221 20
37 1:34.591[1] 1:35.235[2] -0.644 -5.865 21
38 1:34.597[1] 1:35.216[2] -0.619 -6.484 22
39 1:34.748[1] 1:35.206[2] -0.458 -6.942 23
40 1:34.800[1] 1:35.385[2] -0.585 -7.527 24
Once he realized that he was going to the end, his lap times seemed to slow down. It was an on the fly change of strategy, triggered by Kimi's retirement. And considering that fact, the job he did to keep Bottas behind should be applauded.