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This thread will document all instances of Kimi's "bad luck" this season. Whether one believes this is actually "bad luck" or a conspiracy is upto them. This post will be updated after every race weekend.

Australia:

* After being faster than Vettel all weekend including in the opening stint of the race, Vettel stays out is losing time to Kimi but "miraculously" there is a safety c ar caused by Haas that moves Kimi away from being comfortably in the 2nd place ahead of Vettel to 3rd place.

Bahrain:

* Kimi is once again the faster than Vettel in practice and in quali until the last quali laps. Vettel is released into a clean track by Ferrari whereas Kimi is held in the pits and sent out into traffic (exactly what Kimi told Ferrari he didn't want to happen) causing Kimi to lose out on pole to Vettel despite being faster than him all weekend before that quali lap.

* During the race Ferrari forces Kimi to retire after an issue removing his left rear tire.

Why is miraculously in quote marks?

Australia wasn't miraculous, Ferrari pitted him very early which would force Hamilton to pit and create a 8-10 lap period in which if a VSC came out would win Vettel the race.

Now, Ferrari had a nice insight into the likelyhood of a SC too.

Who designs Haas' wheel nuts? Ferrari.

Who have been having wheel nut problems all season? Haas and Ferrari, 4 issues in the first 2 races. 4 penatlies for unsafe releases due it.

Would Ferrari have known this from pre-season and going into Australia? Almost certainly.

What do you have to do if you release a car with a loose wheel? Pull it over immediately and not continue.

Is there anywhere to pull your car over in S1 in Australia safely? Not really, unless you take your car all the way to turn 3 which doesn't comply with pulling over immediately. This is what K-mag did. Grosjean did what you are supposed to do and brought out the VSC.

In the first 2 races, of the 8 Ferrari and Haas starts. 3 of them retired from the race due to wheel nut problem. 38% retirement rate due to wheel nut issue. If they haven't changed things, it will continue to happen. I am sure they have redesigned it or gone back to old spec by now. So maybe Ferrari knew a bit more about the chances of a VSC than we initially thought.

This isn't just conspiracy theorising, this is pure delusion.

The lengths to which you have to reach to find some fault of Ferrari in these instances is incredible. The idea they would be involded in the Haas wheelnut issue is hillarious and as for sending Kimi out after Vettel in Bahrain qualifying they even changed the order in which they let their drivers out the pits in China (Kimi first, as it suits his preferred tyre warm-up procedures).

Where did I say or imply Ferrari had anything to do with it?

I was merely pointing out that they may have had some insight into a VSC being likely knowing there cars had wheel nut problems.

If your gambling on a VSC coming out, then you work the odds out and factor everything in.

https://youtu.be/Qn0DG3GfgUQ?t=3m2s This was filmed before Kimi had his one in the Bahrain race. But according to this Ferrari where unaware of any issue prior to Australia.

I never said you were lamo, my comment was in response to the OP.

This is some Alex Jones / Sean Hannity kind of analysis.

You really are trying to say Ferrari pulled a Singapore '08?

You make your own luck.

This guy has willingly signed a #2 contract, despite being an ex-WDC. It's plain to see now. I have no sympathy for his bad luck any more. Neither does he, really. It's all about the pay cheque.

Was Vettel unlucky today? I thought he was on 3 separate occasions no less.

Luck has paid a huge part in this season. It has without doubt decided 2 of the 3 races with SC timings and probably the race in Bahrain too which Kimi would have won if he got out the pits. 3/3

Its funny, because 2 of the first 3 races were decided by SC timings too in China and Bahrain before it settled down to most races being decided on merit.

I think Kimi was definitely sacrificed to help Vettel today; I think it's very hard to come to any other conclusion. And it seems like the Ferrari strategists have even forgotten he exists, other than to act as whipping boy. To me it's a no-brainer that they should have pitted him during the SC. IIRC he was behind all the other players anyway, so what exactly did he have to lose? The Ferrari was a proven untouchable on the Ultras, so he would have had the best chance of performing a miracle in a bunched up field. That they left him out is inexplicable.

That said, he was once again slow in the race, especially compared to qualifying. He was losing chunks of time to Vettel/Bottas even before the stops. He doesn't help himself by not showing that he can actually take a fight to anybody

Yeah, clearly he is such a terrible human being and so much slower than Vettel.

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He was slow today. Lost almost a second a lap to Vettel. Then when he caught Bottas later on he just parked up behind him. Kimi has had bad luck but it would help if he did well at the bits in his control.

Damn, I've run out of popcorn, just when I need it most!

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Power tends to corrupt and absolute power corrupts absolutely. [Lord Acton]
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Rumour has it, Kimi is only allowed 1 weet-a-bix for breakfast on race days, whereas Vettel has the normal 2.

Just sayin'

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Power tends to corrupt and absolute power corrupts absolutely. [Lord Acton]
My own Google Earth Motor Sport file. http://www.mediafire.com/?jzm1ieatytv
Follow me @asphalt_world

How did you get that figure? Kimi was stuck in the first stint behind Verstappen. Even then he was 4 seconds behind Vettel at the end of the first lap, which grew to 11.7 seconds by lap 20. That is only only 0.4 per lap between laps 1-20 whilst being held up by Max.

When Max pitted, Kimi was 12 seconds behind Vettel on lap 18. When Vettel pitted 2 laps later, Kimi was 11.7 behind. That was the only 2 real representative laps between them and they were running the same pace.

After that, Ferrari left Kimi out on the softs and obviously he was slow on those old tyres compared to others on new mediums. Although I'd like to see his laps times for those laps compared to when he was stuck behind Max.

Kimi, once again lost out at the start although this time was due to a chop from Vettel put on him. A chop that ironically lost Vettel his rear gunner from Bottas.

Kimi had 8 lap fresher tyres, same compound as Bottas at the end. A good advantage, but not a huge one. I am guessing about a 0.5-0.6 advantage. To me it seemed that during this race it wasn't even possible to get DRS unless you were 0.5 a lap quicker and need more than the advantage Kimi had to make a pass.

The Red Bull drivers had 12 lap fresher tyres than Bottas and a compound softer which is more like 1-1.2 second per lap advantage and even then the passes weren't easy for them.

Numbers are out now, Kimi's pace and longevity on the soft was decent.

http://en.mclarenf-1.com/index.php?page ... 0Raikkonen

He took 0.7 out of Vettel over the 3 laps they both ran, once Max pitted.

Vettel burned through his tyres by about lap 16 when his times fell off significantly. Kimi took his a lot longer at a respectable pace.

Kimi also had great pace and did very well to catch Bottas. Closing him down from 6 seconds to 1 seconds in 8 laps. He had a tyre advantage but it wasn't that huge.

http://en.mclarenf-1.com/index.php?page ... 0Raikkonen

I am all for a Kimi bashing and have been very vocal when he is actually useless but no real evidence that Vettel was any quicker than him today let alone up to 1 second which is way off.

This.

he lost some 12 seconds over 15 laps. Not great in my book. Yes, he started to go quicker than Vettel before the latter pitted but not enough to offset the deficit that had already built up. 0.7s over 3 laps, when already so far behind? Not good in my book.

After the SC he was also slower than Vettel, despite having fresher tyres. And that only changed one lap before Vettel got punted, so it's difficult to say whether the tide had turned at all. I think he had a poor race and didn't show much in the way of pace

Comparing the pace when a car is stuck in traffic to one in clean air is ridiculous and really low level analysis. As soon as Max pitted, Kimi went 0.3-0.4 quicker and faster than Vettel for 3 consecutive laps before Vettel pitted.

After the SC he was again in traffic. Look at his pace when had clean air after the SC. He took 5 seconds out of Bottas in 8 laps. As soon as Max took out Vettel and Kimi cleared all those lot, he started lapping 0.6-1.0 per lap quicker immediately and reeled in Bottas.

When he came out of the pits on his new mediums, he was nealry 1 second per lap quicker than Vettel and Bottas

It's a shame he made no attempt at any stage to overtake any of these people that were holding him up.

Without any comparable data how do you know it was possible? Nobody could stay within a second of the car in front when on equal life/ compound. The Red Bulls had more than double tyre advantage Kimi had and were the only cars able to pass others.

Once Ricciardo cleared Bottas he put in a 35.9. Bottas was in the mid 37's at that stage. Ricciardo was about 1.3-1.5 quicker when he passed Bottas. Kimi when he closed down Bottas was about 0.3-0.7 quicker. Two completely different scenarios. Did we forgot how hard it is to overtake because the Red Bulls had a huge tyre and life advantage?

Good analysis lamo. Kudos.

There can be no meaningful teammate comparison at Ferrari. The team basically sabotages Kimi's races. It's just not right IMO. To compromise his whole race just to make him get in Bottas's way for a couple of laps? Really? This is why some people hate it when Ferrari are strong. They always race like this.

tbf, Mercedes did the same thing in Bahrain, using Hamilton as a road block.

A bit different I think.....

I think that's more a matter of adapting to the unfolding race on a day when Hamilton had a grid penalty to deal with. Certainly Mercedes are not hampering Hamilton's title chances on purpose.

Ferrari are very much sabotaging Raikkonen's races on purpose to ensure that he doesn't take points off of Vettel and that he helps Vettel if at all possible. He just doesn't have the chance to race his own race out there. Your example is really an example of how Bottas DOES get to race his own race and the team will prioritize his race over Hamilton's if he has the chance to win but Hamilton doesn't. Ferrari are always going to prioritize Vettel's race regardless of the circumstances. This is what it means to have true #1 status. This is what Alonso had over Massa. It's what Schumacher had over his teammates. Its really not about the 1 or 2 times when the other driver is actually asked to move over. It's about the fact that his every race is compromised strategically.

yeah on the strength of today it's really hard to argue otherwise. Kimi's "strategy" was not run in his own interests

Well, he had it today. He started P2. Where was he after couple of laps? Sabotaged by the team perhaps?
He does it to himself first, then the team may pick it up from there as they find it best to suit their interests, in this case to assist to win the race. Didn't help there either, eventually the luck put him on the podium.

Mercedes did same thing using Bottas previously, keeping him out as longer as possible to hold Vettel till Hamilton on the fresher tires catches up to him and makes the overtaking movement after being waived through by Bottas.
When and if the situation occurs again, they would do it again.

He was running 4th, instead of trying to get him into 3rd via strategy they ensured he finished 6th. If he had just pitted the lap after Max he would have finished 4th in a normal race.

He was also only in 4th due to the chop Vettel put on him at turn 1, he was taking the lead or following Vettel in P2 if Vettel didn't do that. Not a criticism of Vettel but just ironic that Kimi was down there due to him. Vettel also lost himself his rear gunner by pulling that move. Bottas wouldn't have been able to undercut him if Kimi was in P2.

Mercedes did it when Bottas was in 3rd all on his own with no chance of changing position. Spain 2017. They also did it for Bottas in the very last race, again when Hamilton was in a race of his own in 3rd. So it works both ways and the 2nd driver doesn't lose anything.

Today is the first time I can remember a team sacrificing a 4th or trying to go for 3rd and settling for a 6th just to give a tiny gain to the lead driver. Bottas in Spain 2017 actually aided Hamilton massively to win by costing Vettel about 4 seconds.

He lost the P2, it was not Vettel's fault that he couldn't figure out to keep it. It is a bad excuse. There was a long way to that corner that Vettel aimed at.
Once he was P4, and Bottas did undercut Vettel, the priority of the team obviously was not to ensure the best strategy for Kimi to fight back for the podium, but Vettel winning the race. Yes, they sacrificed him there at that moment, but Kimi is not a fighter. That has become his natural position to be used for the "higher" purposes. And let's not kid ourselves - that is why he keeps getting his seat in Ferrari for.

Unfortunately, Kimi has both bad luck and is used to help Vettel.

While none can be changed, If he holds on mentally and just focuses on getting points, with his current form he will be right in the mix come years end. Especially if there are more cars always in the mix. If you are with a fighting chance in the last race, well, you just try and grab it.

I think this is the only thing he can do at this moment.

Once Kimi had to lift he was always losing a place to Bottas, there was nothing he could do.

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PF1 Pick 10 Competition

2016: 24th place
2017: 4th place
2018: 12th place

Wins: Spain 2016, Canada 2017, Malaysia 2017
Podiums: 2nd Germany 2016, 3rd Mexico 2016, 3rd China 2018, 3rd Japan 2018, 2nd Mexico 2018

Yes I don't disagree with any of that its just the first time ever really that Ferrari have employed strong visible favouritism so early in the year. The line has always been, no favouritism until one driver is established as the title challenger. For example last year in China, Kimi held Vettel up for ages and no order was made. Monaco and Hungary last year were understandable as Vettel was going for the title and Kimi was useless most of the time.

In the first race they pitted Kimi 10 laps early to try force Hamilton into a 2 stopper and also give Vettel this race winning VSC window. In the first race. By race 3 of 20 he has been completely sacrificed in a season where his pace doesn't actually look that far behind Vettel. Ferrari are probably wise to do so, as Vettel will more than likely be the better bet for the WDC. However, they likely won't win the WCC using Kimi like that, Mercedes have taken the lead in that as of today.

Its also worth remembering, Eddie Irvine, Schumachers number 2 lost the title in 1999 by 2 points. If he wasn't moved over for Schumacher in that years French GP he would have been world champion.

yes, but you can start arguing with Ferrari over this or focus on getting points all the time. WIth 6 cars in the mix for victories and possibly more strange races ( because you have 6 cars scrapping over 1st ) there is an outside chance.

What do you think can bring a better outcome for KIMI ? fighting with Ferrari or grabbing points? I personally would not choose the first one.

PS: My gut feeling says Kimi might just win the title this year.

Kimi has been unlucky this year. VSC lost him 2nd, pitstop error coming out on the faster tyres with a minimum 4th and after Ferrari sacrificing Kim's race today it then come back to him, Ferrari should have pitted him for softs and the race win was a chance.

I've been Kimi's biggest critic but I think his doing well this year and could easily be up there with Vettel in points. Just seems to lack that extra edge though when it comes to quali or matching Vettel in race pace.

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PF1 Pick 10 Competition

2016: 24th place
2017: 4th place
2018: 12th place

Wins: Spain 2016, Canada 2017, Malaysia 2017
Podiums: 2nd Germany 2016, 3rd Mexico 2016, 3rd China 2018, 3rd Japan 2018, 2nd Mexico 2018

Based on his qualifying and race pace over the first 3 races, I would say he could theoretically beat Vettel over the season if there was a disparity in luck like the Rosberg and Hamilton in 2016 situation. It could also require Kimi maintaining the same level for the entire season, which is a HUGE IF and very unlikely.

I think its most likely that Vettel hasn't clicked with the car yet. Similar story for Hamilton and the Mercedes who has also been underwhelming thus far.