planetf1.com

Tomorrow's race is poised to be a nail biter!

_________________
Feel The Fourth

Advantage Mercedes this time with Kimi out of position.

Mercedes race pace was mediocre in Friday. If it's a clean race then Vettel has this in the big.

I get the feeling Ferrari will get caught out on strategy again with the two Mercedes being able to split theirs.

That's forgetting Kimi is going to force others into pitting, and if he can clear the bulls quickly.

He will need a phenomenal start and then some serious early pace if Ferrari want to get him into a position where he can cause a bit of mischief, and unless he goes ultras second stint with a third on the softs, it's hard to see him having the pace to do any real blocking after the rest of the front runners pit, especially with S3 being one giant drag race. As much as I think Ferrari screwed Kimi last time out in order to try and block Bottas back into Vettel, that seemed like a decision done on the fly. To do the above would require pre planning with the strategy, and I don't think even Ferrari would go that far this early in the year, purely from a motivational perspective.

_________________
PF1 Pick 10 Competition 2018: {Rookie Year}
Current positon: 5th | 2 Podiums | 0 Wins

He's going to be on the faster tyre at the start if he has a good start he should have one bull by turn one and the other once drs comes on we have seen how powerful the tow is here.

Just last race you saw how Max was able to do same.

What's the difference in compounds between the US and SS? In China it was 2 seconds or more between compounds and that's why Verstappen had the pace to overtake. Tow means nothing in the same speed cars, it might and I mean a big might make the difference between a Ferrari and RB depending how much quicker the Ferrari is. These cars are awful for overtaking.

_________________
PF1 Pick 10 Competition

2016: 24th place
2017: 4th place

Wins: Spain 2016, Canada 2017, Malaysia 2017
Podiums: 2nd Germany 2016, 3rd Mexico 2016

What can Mercedes really do though? It's a one stopper and RB might have the pace to keep up which changes everything. Pit the first Mercedes and Vettel reacts meaning the second Mercedes is just waiting for a VSC or SC,

_________________
PF1 Pick 10 Competition

2016: 24th place
2017: 4th place

Wins: Spain 2016, Canada 2017, Malaysia 2017
Podiums: 2nd Germany 2016, 3rd Mexico 2016

Hamilton has 8 kph on Vettel in the speed traps.

One SC restart and Vettel is doomed.

hopefully vettel and hamilton will take each other out at the start and then ferrari will be forced into thinking about strategy for kimi. its the only way that will happen. the ultras have lasted well at other tracks so he should get a decent stint. if he can pass a couple of cars and then undercut a couple of cars his ferrari has the potential to win. hes gonna need something though, and i cant remember the last time he got a big lump of it, and thats luck.

The tow here on same tyres is worth 3/10th.

Despite starting on the third row, I suspect Verstappen will in a very short time get up there mixed with the Mercs, which could actually help Vettel by eliminating the 'two drivers to cover' problem. Ricciardo tends to play a little safer at the start, and if there is a charge by him it will come later, so i think the early action will be Vestappen vs the mercs and how that plays out will be interesting.

The other wild card is Kimi starting on the Ultrasofts.

Something in the back of my head is telling me that Kimi will get Maxed out of the race or at least out of contention. That will leave the Mercs and Danny to try and out maneuver Seb.

Pirelli's recommended pit strategies:

Quickest theoretical strategy for tomorrow is a one-stop strategy:
Start on supersoft for 20 laps, then soft for 31 laps.

Second-quickest strategy is also a one-stopper:
Start on ultrasoft for 10 laps, then 41 laps on soft to the flag.

Ideal two-stopper:
Start on ultrasoft for 10 laps, then supersoft for 20 laps, then supersoft again for 21 laps to the flag.

_________________
Feel The Fourth

There's a chance the Virtual Safety Car could come into play. If a driver can push their tires long enough and have the pace to take the lead during pitstop rotation, they could come out of it with the lead. Just an observation. There's a high chance we might see one with this being Baku.

Hoping for a duel at the front and some interesting strategy decisions. This could get really interesting.

I'm still thinking this may be a Mercedes win. They are already quicker on the straights than the Ferrari and with DRS they have a great chance of pulling off an overtake. The caveat is them staying close in the twisty bits, of course, but I do fancy their chances

Well, if they get away as is, they are in the driving seat in regards to strategy, can do the undercut and overcut on Vettel. As some have alluded to already though, I think the VSC/SC is going to be the big fly in the ointment on any potential strategy today. We saw last year that with the close walls and limited/dangerous runoff, an SC situation is likely. Red Bull have shown they probably react the best to this kind of issue the best so far this year, could be a good day for them.

Wouldn't mind seeing another crazy SC restart again this year, cars going 3/4 abreast in that huge straight down into turn 1 is manic.

_________________
PF1 Pick 10 Competition 2018: {Rookie Year}
Current positon: 5th | 2 Podiums | 0 Wins

i think ferrari have the fastest car here personally. i think merc still have more of a q3 boost then ferrari but if kimi had nailed his lap they would have been about 4 tenths down which is a big chunk. if they get away in order i think that vettel will pull a gap in the first two sectors, stay out of drs early and will have the pace to pull away.

Things are going to get messy today.

Speeds around the Baku circuit:


Source - http://www.f1i.com/wp-content/uploads/2 ... d-Trap.jpg

_________________
Feel The Fourth

Wow Ferrari really haven't set their car up for straight line speed have they? Vettel could be a sitting duck if he can't break clear of DRS early on. I'm assuming Ricciardo got a tow.

Interesting Data.
Surprised they feel the supersoft can do 20 laps at the start...but they never suggest it can do more later in the race.

The real interest here is how these are impacted by a tyre change in the event of a safety car, in the first 10, the first 20, or then first 30.

The two stop strategy of two stints on super soft and one stint on ultras could be an option for those starting on super softs as well.

The challenge could be to find the strategy with maximum chance of benefiting from a safety car for one team member - to cover off the safety car angle.

Forgetting they are slower through the twisty bits which lead onto the straights for drs, so might not be in drs range in the race.
A lot will depend on how fast Kimi clears the Redbulls.

Would a two stop tyre strategy that involves finishing on the ultrasoft be any good?

Grosjean the most consistent out there ..

Not always wise to read in to Merc's Friday pace. I think they run slightly more fuel than Ferrari and Red Bull, and it used to be pretty close even pre-2017 on Fridays, and then Merc would have that clear advantage again in the race.

If Vettel wins today, it will be with a Merc up behind him.

If the wind is as strong as indicated above then you have to expect it to play havoc with the aero and as a result braking. I expect to see a few down the escape road or into the wall.

Who will be king of the restart I wonder!

Not sure how I'm forgetting it when I said "the caveat is them staying close in the twisty bits?"

Wow, the Ferraris are really slow on the straights.

The revised grid for the race:

1 Sebastian Vettel Ferrari
2 Lewis Hamilton Mercedes
3 Valtteri Bottas Mercedes
4 Daniel Ricciardo Red Bull
5 Max Verstappen Red Bull
6 Kimi Raikkonen Ferrari
7 Esteban Ocon Force India
8 Sergio Perez Force India
9 Carlos Sainz Renault
10 Lance Stroll Williams
11 Sergey Sirotkin Williams
12 Fernando Alonso McLaren
13 Charles Leclerc Sauber
14 Nico Hulkenberg Renault *
15 Kevin Magnussen Haas
16 Stoffel Vandoorne McLaren
17 Pierre Gasly Toro Rosso
18 Marcus Ericsson Sauber
19 Brendon Hartley Toro Rosso **
20 Romain Grosjean Haas **

* five-place gearbox penalty
** failed to get within the 107% qualifying rule and will race at the stewards’ discretion

_________________
Feel The Fourth

Who takes the first corner in a normal race I expect to win, Ferrari or Mercedes. This won't be a normal race, won't be surprised a SC influences the result.

_________________
PF1 Pick 10 Competition

2016: 24th place
2017: 4th place

Wins: Spain 2016, Canada 2017, Malaysia 2017
Podiums: 2nd Germany 2016, 3rd Mexico 2016

Kimi trying to end his race before it starts it seems

_________________
[Space for rent]

Let the mayhem commence!

Wow, not even race yet, few cars already off track.
Going to be lots n lots of safety car on track today, me think.

The strong winds already becoming a challenge:

_________________
Feel The Fourth

Fixed that for you!

Those starting on the even numbered grid (Hamilton, Ricciardo, Raikkonen) could be at a disadvantage due to the dirty side & dusty even.

_________________
Feel The Fourth

The chosen tyre compounds at the start:


Source - www.imgur.com

_________________
Feel The Fourth

Who is going to hit the wall first??