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PostPosted: Sat May 26, 2018 2:02 pm 
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This has Riccardo domination written all over the race tomorrow. Ferrari & Mercedes to scrap for the spoils (podium)!

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PostPosted: Sat May 26, 2018 2:17 pm 
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As long as RBR remember to grab the tires. Riccardo is a shoey to win

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PostPosted: Sat May 26, 2018 2:20 pm 
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If Ricciardo can get into turn 1 in the lead, then all things being equal he should walk it in.

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PostPosted: Sat May 26, 2018 2:26 pm 
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The biggest worry for dan would be the start, this season it has been the weakest part of his driving, i don't recall him getting off to a flyer once.


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PostPosted: Sat May 26, 2018 3:29 pm 
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Jezza13 wrote:
If Ricciardo can get into turn 1 in the lead, then all things being equal he should walk it in.


This with the comment from rivf1 is the issue - if dan can get a clean start and the lead - I think he can build a gap and unless very unlucky with a SC (or has reliability issues or makes a mistake) is well positioned to win - Ferrari and Mercedes won't have their qualifying boost modes and I think RBR will be better in the race than qualifying - should be interesting to see how Verstappen goes - I expect he'll gain positions off the line (he's good at starts) and will push others to gain positions early - but will stall at some point unless he gets very lucky with SC plural


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PostPosted: Sat May 26, 2018 3:35 pm 
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F1Oz wrote:
Jezza13 wrote:
If Ricciardo can get into turn 1 in the lead, then all things being equal he should walk it in.


This with the comment from rivf1 is the issue - if dan can get a clean start and the lead - I think he can build a gap and unless very unlucky with a SC (or has reliability issues or makes a mistake) is well positioned to win - Ferrari and Mercedes won't have their qualifying boost modes and I think RBR will be better in the race than qualifying - should be interesting to see how Verstappen goes - I expect he'll gain positions off the line (he's good at starts) and will push others to gain positions early - but will stall at some point unless he gets very lucky with SC plural


Regarding Verstappen, he's going to face the biggest lesson when it comes to race craft. Either he tones down & tries to get the car in 1 piece or regains his exuberant driving to keep overtaking & risk crashing on the narrow streets of Monaco!

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PostPosted: Sat May 26, 2018 3:56 pm 
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Using "Crofty logic" Hamilton is a dead cert for the win. He has started from 3rd twice at Monaco and won both times.


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PostPosted: Sat May 26, 2018 4:16 pm 
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Lojik wrote:
Using "Crofty logic" Hamilton is a dead cert for the win. He has started from 3rd twice at Monaco and won both times.


He only won in 2016 because RBR shafted Dan in the pitstop - otherwise Dan would have won easily


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PostPosted: Sat May 26, 2018 4:23 pm 
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It's a track position race. Dan is easily the fastest but if Vettel or Hamilton can find a way to gain track position on him, they can almost certainly keep him behind. I think the race will potentially come down to a VSC or SC deployment and someone taking advantage of it to gain track position. Either that or Daniel just rides off into the sunset.


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PostPosted: Sat May 26, 2018 4:37 pm 
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F1Oz wrote:
Lojik wrote:
Using "Crofty logic" Hamilton is a dead cert for the win. He has started from 3rd twice at Monaco and won both times.


He only won in 2016 because RBR shafted Dan in the pitstop - otherwise Dan would have won easily


I hope you realise I wasn't being entirely serious.


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PostPosted: Sat May 26, 2018 4:41 pm 
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Lojik wrote:
F1Oz wrote:
Lojik wrote:
Using "Crofty logic" Hamilton is a dead cert for the win. He has started from 3rd twice at Monaco and won both times.


He only won in 2016 because RBR shafted Dan in the pitstop - otherwise Dan would have won easily


I hope you realise I wasn't being entirely serious.


He will only win tomorrow because Verstappen will bring out a SC that will ultimately screw Ricciardo. From tomorrow onwards, Dan will have two Red Bull shaped holes, one in each foot.

In all seriousness, I feel that anything can happen with this VSC/SC process tomorrow unless Ricciardo can walk away at 0.5 per lap and get himself a safety cushion to cover most scenarios. I see it as a game of cat and mouse around the SC's. Lots of "if he goes in, stay out" scenarios among RB/Ferrari/Mercedes.

If a VSC came out at around lap 25, would Red Bull pit and go to the end? If they did, surely one or two Mercedes/Ferrari would try continuing and waiting for another SC. But if Mercedes were ahead at they stayed out, maybe Ferrari would then pit too. What if Dan stayed out on a SC, maybe the others will split there cars. So many variables. Any of the top 4 I feel can win, even Kimi if the Ferrari alternative strategy works. So long as Ricciardo doens't walk away from the field that is.


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PostPosted: Sat May 26, 2018 6:56 pm 
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The grid at the back surely has the potential to be explosive when You have Verstappen, Magnussen & Grosjean all starting close to one another.

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PostPosted: Sat May 26, 2018 6:57 pm 
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Since 2014, the driver on pole hasn't won the race. I don't think this stat would dampen Ricciardo's hopes of winning the race.

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PostPosted: Sat May 26, 2018 7:05 pm 
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I am wondering about pit strategy with all of the front runners. Everyone but Fernando Alonso (on Ultras) is on the Hypersofts. For Qualifying they were saying that the Hypers were only lasting a couple of laps at optimum performance. I wonder if the temps remain high, whether a one stop will work, when the pit stop will come. Have to assume that everyone starting on Hypers will go to Ultras as the second set.

Pirelli claim the Hypers can be used as race tires, but they do seem to degrade quickly.

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PostPosted: Sat May 26, 2018 7:29 pm 
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If Mercedes can only get 7 laps out of the hypersoft then they would have to 2 stop which could be a big problem, unless there is a SC of course.
They could get squeezed of the podium. Red Bull and Ferrari look favourites.


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PostPosted: Sat May 26, 2018 9:07 pm 
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Personally I can see Verstappen getting a podium, I seriously tempted to put a fiver on it at 400-1!


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PostPosted: Sat May 26, 2018 9:13 pm 
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finally we have tyres that might make the strategy side of it interesting. rather then 1 stop and everybody doing pretty much the same. if the hypers do go off quickly (i think they are gonna try and get 15-20 laps out of them though) you may get some going to supers for 1 stop. some to ultras but can the ultras do one stop. undercut should be powerful so there could be big winners and big losers. if only you could overtake it would be great. i say hypers mandatory at every race!


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PostPosted: Sat May 26, 2018 9:17 pm 
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sandman1347 wrote:
It's a track position race. Dan is easily the fastest but if Vettel or Hamilton can find a way to gain track position on him, they can almost certainly keep him behind. I think the race will potentially come down to a VSC or SC deployment and someone taking advantage of it to gain track position. Either that or Daniel just rides off into the sunset.

Even in Monaco Dan has attempted his trademark silly divebombs.

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PostPosted: Sat May 26, 2018 9:24 pm 
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Kev627 wrote:
Personally I can see Verstappen getting a podium, I seriously tempted to put a fiver on it at 400-1!


I can see Verstappen getting frustrated behind a slower car and going for a gap that doesn't exist. Thus wiping out his team mates 10 second lead.

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PostPosted: Sat May 26, 2018 9:30 pm 
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Covalent wrote:
sandman1347 wrote:
It's a track position race. Dan is easily the fastest but if Vettel or Hamilton can find a way to gain track position on him, they can almost certainly keep him behind. I think the race will potentially come down to a VSC or SC deployment and someone taking advantage of it to gain track position. Either that or Daniel just rides off into the sunset.

Even in Monaco Dan has attempted his trademark silly divebombs.


Its only silly if he doesnt get it to work ;)

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PostPosted: Sat May 26, 2018 10:20 pm 
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Mayhem wrote:
Covalent wrote:
sandman1347 wrote:
It's a track position race. Dan is easily the fastest but if Vettel or Hamilton can find a way to gain track position on him, they can almost certainly keep him behind. I think the race will potentially come down to a VSC or SC deployment and someone taking advantage of it to gain track position. Either that or Daniel just rides off into the sunset.

Even in Monaco Dan has attempted his trademark silly divebombs.


Its only silly if he doesnt get it to work ;)


That was my thinking. Daniel doesn't often end up walking back to the pits after an incident that HE caused. To my mind Sebastian causes a lot more contact on attempted passes and starting line swerving than Daniel.

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PostPosted: Sat May 26, 2018 10:22 pm 
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Herb wrote:
Kev627 wrote:
Personally I can see Verstappen getting a podium, I seriously tempted to put a fiver on it at 400-1!


I can see Verstappen getting frustrated behind a slower car and going for a gap that doesn't exist. Thus wiping out his team mates 10 second lead.


Come on!!! So Max starts in 20th. KMag starts in 19th & RoGro in 18th. What could go wrong???? :uhoh:

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PostPosted: Sat May 26, 2018 10:39 pm 
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Herb wrote:
Kev627 wrote:
Personally I can see Verstappen getting a podium, I seriously tempted to put a fiver on it at 400-1!


I can see Verstappen getting frustrated behind a slower car and going for a gap that doesn't exist. Thus wiping out his team mates 10 second lead.


I feel this too. No point trying to build a buffer, just do enough to stay in control and get new rubber when Max or one of his associates bring out the Safety car.


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PostPosted: Sat May 26, 2018 10:48 pm 
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Caserole of Nonsense wrote:
finally we have tyres that might make the strategy side of it interesting. rather then 1 stop and everybody doing pretty much the same. if the hypers do go off quickly (i think they are gonna try and get 15-20 laps out of them though) you may get some going to supers for 1 stop. some to ultras but can the ultras do one stop. undercut should be powerful so there could be big winners and big losers. if only you could overtake it would be great. i say hypers mandatory at every race!


It's not good. High deg at Monte Carlo just means everyone driving to a delta miles off the pace. We had high deg in 2012 and 2013 and the race was horrendous.


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PostPosted: Sun May 27, 2018 2:20 am 
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I want Ricciardo to win after what happened in 2016, but I'm really worried about the reliability of that Renault engine.


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PostPosted: Sun May 27, 2018 4:03 am 
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PostPosted: Sun May 27, 2018 8:05 am 
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whitewolfarctic wrote:
I want Ricciardo to win after what happened in 2016, but I'm really worried about the reliability of that Renault engine.

I'm thinking the exact same. I also want Ricciardo to get a win down to his own merit as I think he was really lucky in China, but given how shocking Red Bull's reliability often seems to be, I can't be totally sure he'll make it.


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PostPosted: Sun May 27, 2018 8:23 am 
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Mort Canard wrote:
Mayhem wrote:
Covalent wrote:
sandman1347 wrote:
It's a track position race. Dan is easily the fastest but if Vettel or Hamilton can find a way to gain track position on him, they can almost certainly keep him behind. I think the race will potentially come down to a VSC or SC deployment and someone taking advantage of it to gain track position. Either that or Daniel just rides off into the sunset.

Even in Monaco Dan has attempted his trademark silly divebombs.


Its only silly if he doesnt get it to work ;)


That was my thinking. Daniel doesn't often end up walking back to the pits after an incident that HE caused. To my mind Sebastian causes a lot more contact on attempted passes and starting line swerving than Daniel.

Well Daniel did cause contact with Kimi here once and IMO was extremely fortunate not to end up with any serious damage. And in Spain a couple of years ago he would have collected Seb had the latter not taken avoiding action, resulting in Dan not making the corner anyway. Dan not causing contact invariably relies on the other guy


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PostPosted: Sun May 27, 2018 8:25 am 
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mikeyg123 wrote:
Caserole of Nonsense wrote:
finally we have tyres that might make the strategy side of it interesting. rather then 1 stop and everybody doing pretty much the same. if the hypers do go off quickly (i think they are gonna try and get 15-20 laps out of them though) you may get some going to supers for 1 stop. some to ultras but can the ultras do one stop. undercut should be powerful so there could be big winners and big losers. if only you could overtake it would be great. i say hypers mandatory at every race!


It's not good. High deg at Monte Carlo just means everyone driving to a delta miles off the pace. We had high deg in 2012 and 2013 and the race was horrendous.

yes I agree. You want tyres drivers can push on, not have the result determined by who drives on eggshells the best


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PostPosted: Sun May 27, 2018 8:39 am 
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So it looks like it won't be a one-stopper, after all, if Bottas is right:

Valtteri Bottas believes it will be hard for Mercedes to run a one-stop strategy in the Monaco Grand Prix after a failed attempt to qualify with the ultrasoft tyres.

https://www.motorsport.com/f1/news/mercedes-fails-in-attempt-to-ditch-hypersoft-1042053/


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PostPosted: Sun May 27, 2018 8:48 am 
Hoping for a Hamilton win, if not that, a Ricciardo win!


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PostPosted: Sun May 27, 2018 9:26 am 
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Mort Canard wrote:
I am wondering about pit strategy with all of the front runners. Everyone but Fernando Alonso (on Ultras) is on the Hypersofts. For Qualifying they were saying that the Hypers were only lasting a couple of laps at optimum performance. I wonder if the temps remain high, whether a one stop will work, when the pit stop will come. Have to assume that everyone starting on Hypers will go to Ultras as the second set.

Pirelli claim the Hypers can be used as race tires, but they do seem to degrade quickly.


Alonso set his Q2 time on Hypers?


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PostPosted: Sun May 27, 2018 10:29 am 
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Zoue wrote:
mikeyg123 wrote:
Caserole of Nonsense wrote:
finally we have tyres that might make the strategy side of it interesting. rather then 1 stop and everybody doing pretty much the same. if the hypers do go off quickly (i think they are gonna try and get 15-20 laps out of them though) you may get some going to supers for 1 stop. some to ultras but can the ultras do one stop. undercut should be powerful so there could be big winners and big losers. if only you could overtake it would be great. i say hypers mandatory at every race!


It's not good. High deg at Monte Carlo just means everyone driving to a delta miles off the pace. We had high deg in 2012 and 2013 and the race was horrendous.

yes I agree. You want tyres drivers can push on, not have the result determined by who drives on eggshells the best


well i disagree. this is typical of f1. canada 2010 was epic and everybody wanted high deg cos it created a great race. which is why pirelli made the tyres they did in 2012. then they have had enough of that and want harder tyres that they can push on for longer periods so we get boring one stops. how long before high deg is being called for again. in general i would much rather have high deg creating bigger offsets between drivers which inevitably leads to more action. at monaco i cant remember what happened in 2012 and 13 but i know for sure it wasnt the tyres fault the races were boring, driving to a delta or not. monaco is a boring race. only thing that makes it interesting are incidents and pitstops.

also regarding the tyres its exactly the same with the downforce of these cars. lets have these super fast cars with loads of downforce. oh wait cant run in dirty air. next year feels very much like 2009. why do they not learn.


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PostPosted: Sun May 27, 2018 10:52 am 
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As per Pirelli, these are the fastest pit stop strategies for the race:

Quickest is a one-stopper: one stint on hypersoft for 14 laps then supersoft to the flag.
Second-quickest is also a one-stopper: one stint on ultrasoft for 25 laps then supersoft to the flag.

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PostPosted: Sun May 27, 2018 10:55 am 
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Some heavy hitting there. Sean Galeal's heavy accident at the Swimming Pool section:


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PostPosted: Sun May 27, 2018 10:59 am 
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Caserole of Nonsense wrote:
Zoue wrote:
mikeyg123 wrote:
Caserole of Nonsense wrote:
finally we have tyres that might make the strategy side of it interesting. rather then 1 stop and everybody doing pretty much the same. if the hypers do go off quickly (i think they are gonna try and get 15-20 laps out of them though) you may get some going to supers for 1 stop. some to ultras but can the ultras do one stop. undercut should be powerful so there could be big winners and big losers. if only you could overtake it would be great. i say hypers mandatory at every race!


It's not good. High deg at Monte Carlo just means everyone driving to a delta miles off the pace. We had high deg in 2012 and 2013 and the race was horrendous.

yes I agree. You want tyres drivers can push on, not have the result determined by who drives on eggshells the best


well i disagree. this is typical of f1. canada 2010 was epic and everybody wanted high deg cos it created a great race. which is why pirelli made the tyres they did in 2012. then they have had enough of that and want harder tyres that they can push on for longer periods so we get boring one stops. how long before high deg is being called for again. in general i would much rather have high deg creating bigger offsets between drivers which inevitably leads to more action. at monaco i cant remember what happened in 2012 and 13 but i know for sure it wasnt the tyres fault the races were boring, driving to a delta or not. monaco is a boring race. only thing that makes it interesting are incidents and pitstops.

also regarding the tyres its exactly the same with the downforce of these cars. lets have these super fast cars with loads of downforce. oh wait cant run in dirty air. next year feels very much like 2009. why do they not learn.
I get what you're saying but I've never, ever been a fan of fragile tyres and I've been consistently against them ever since Pirelli became sole supplier. This isn't a case of moving goalposts.


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PostPosted: Sun May 27, 2018 11:01 am 
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Covalent wrote:
sandman1347 wrote:
It's a track position race. Dan is easily the fastest but if Vettel or Hamilton can find a way to gain track position on him, they can almost certainly keep him behind. I think the race will potentially come down to a VSC or SC deployment and someone taking advantage of it to gain track position. Either that or Daniel just rides off into the sunset.

Even in Monaco Dan has attempted his trademark silly divebombs.


You mean the ones that gain him a position ~90% of the time?
The whole dive bomb thing is getting a bit passe. He might not be the faster driver on the grid, but you need more than pure speed to be successful in this sport. He has phenomenal racecraft, knows when to attack, and his feel on the brakes is best of all of them.

FWIW, I can't see RIC making an error in this race. It's possible but I think not likely..He's looked so composed all week. So if he loses I'm betting it will be down to a poor start or tactics around the SC. Can't see RBR stuffing it up in pits this time either, given that it was a preoccupation with Max's race that caused it last time.

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PostPosted: Sun May 27, 2018 11:09 am 
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Caserole of Nonsense wrote:
Zoue wrote:
mikeyg123 wrote:
Caserole of Nonsense wrote:
finally we have tyres that might make the strategy side of it interesting. rather then 1 stop and everybody doing pretty much the same. if the hypers do go off quickly (i think they are gonna try and get 15-20 laps out of them though) you may get some going to supers for 1 stop. some to ultras but can the ultras do one stop. undercut should be powerful so there could be big winners and big losers. if only you could overtake it would be great. i say hypers mandatory at every race!


It's not good. High deg at Monte Carlo just means everyone driving to a delta miles off the pace. We had high deg in 2012 and 2013 and the race was horrendous.

yes I agree. You want tyres drivers can push on, not have the result determined by who drives on eggshells the best


well i disagree. this is typical of f1. canada 2010 was epic and everybody wanted high deg cos it created a great race. which is why pirelli made the tyres they did in 2012. then they have had enough of that and want harder tyres that they can push on for longer periods so we get boring one stops. how long before high deg is being called for again. in general i would much rather have high deg creating bigger offsets between drivers which inevitably leads to more action. at monaco i cant remember what happened in 2012 and 13 but i know for sure it wasnt the tyres fault the races were boring, driving to a delta or not. monaco is a boring race. only thing that makes it interesting are incidents and pitstops.

also regarding the tyres its exactly the same with the downforce of these cars. lets have these super fast cars with loads of downforce. oh wait cant run in dirty air. next year feels very much like 2009. why do they not learn.


It's horses for courses. Monaco with high deg is dull because it has to be a one stop as track position is so vital. That means with high deg you get everyone cruising around well off the pace for lap after lap after lap eeking out tyre life. If you have very low deg everyone has to push like crazy causing incidents and excitement. The race in 2012 was a particularly odd spectacle.

How did I guess!


Last edited by mikeyg123 on Sun May 27, 2018 3:25 pm, edited 1 time in total.

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PostPosted: Sun May 27, 2018 11:17 am 
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Zoue wrote:
Dan not causing contact invariably relies on the other guy


Invariably? You seem so sure of that, citing just 2 occasions where he might have overdone it. Twice in how many races? A rubbish statement IMO. There's a whole textbook of Ricciardo overtakes that haven't relied on "the other guy".

I could just as easily say the Vettel not causing contact invariably relies on him not being fighting on track with any other cars (e.g. Turkey - Webber, Baku - Hamilton, Spa - Button...)...but that would be a comparable yet ludicrous statement :thumbdown:

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PostPosted: Sun May 27, 2018 11:29 am 
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I see Vettel winning this. I have a feeling that Ricciardo and Vettel will open up a big gap at the front and when Danny pits he'll get held up by Kimi just enough for Vettel to jump him.


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