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PostPosted: Fri Sep 07, 2018 5:53 pm 
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sandman1347 wrote:
Junglist wrote:
mikeyg123 wrote:
Junglist wrote:
I wouldn't say it is that unlikely. Only bad luck/brain farts has caused Vettel to not win all of the 4 previous races.


Actually I'm coming round to agreeing. It's still in Sebs hands, just. If he drives at his best for the last 7 races he probably will be champion.


And that is exactly what I think will happen. People are writing Seb of too soon. The man is a 4x champion he will get his head down and as soon as he does, mark my words, he will lead the championship.

Can we get a poll going? I'd be surprised if more people thought he wasn't going to win.

That's a bit too fatalistic for me. The Ferrari is the stronger package but only by a small margin and having 7 consecutive flawless weekends where you don't screw anything up AND don't get unlucky with weather or safety cars is actually unlikely. There is also the possibility that Mercedes will regain the upper hand in development. We shouldn't assume that the matchup will remain static. Certainly there are 1 or 2 races remaining where Mercedes will likely have the better package on the day.

I agree that Vettel has enough time left to regain the lead and win the WDC if he can eliminate unforced errors moving forward. I just think that Hamilton will have a fighting chance to win a lot of races from here on out as well. The Ferrari's advantage isn't so extreme as to make it impossible for Lewis to win unless Ferrari screw something up. Either Lewis or the Mercedes team can make the difference on the day (much like they did in Italy).

Above all else, the margin for error for Ferrari has gotten a bit thin. One more big mistake will put the first nails in their coffin. A DNF for Vettel combined with a Hamilton win would basically put the championship to bed.


He doesn't need that. He needs 5 weekends where he can beat Hamilton out of 7 and to score well in the other two. And that scenario leaves no margin of error to Hamilton. Hamilton is currently favourite but it's a long way from hopeless for Vettel.


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PostPosted: Fri Sep 07, 2018 6:31 pm 
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mikeyg123 wrote:
sandman1347 wrote:
Junglist wrote:
mikeyg123 wrote:
Junglist wrote:
I wouldn't say it is that unlikely. Only bad luck/brain farts has caused Vettel to not win all of the 4 previous races.


Actually I'm coming round to agreeing. It's still in Sebs hands, just. If he drives at his best for the last 7 races he probably will be champion.


And that is exactly what I think will happen. People are writing Seb of too soon. The man is a 4x champion he will get his head down and as soon as he does, mark my words, he will lead the championship.

Can we get a poll going? I'd be surprised if more people thought he wasn't going to win.

That's a bit too fatalistic for me. The Ferrari is the stronger package but only by a small margin and having 7 consecutive flawless weekends where you don't screw anything up AND don't get unlucky with weather or safety cars is actually unlikely. There is also the possibility that Mercedes will regain the upper hand in development. We shouldn't assume that the matchup will remain static. Certainly there are 1 or 2 races remaining where Mercedes will likely have the better package on the day.

I agree that Vettel has enough time left to regain the lead and win the WDC if he can eliminate unforced errors moving forward. I just think that Hamilton will have a fighting chance to win a lot of races from here on out as well. The Ferrari's advantage isn't so extreme as to make it impossible for Lewis to win unless Ferrari screw something up. Either Lewis or the Mercedes team can make the difference on the day (much like they did in Italy).

Above all else, the margin for error for Ferrari has gotten a bit thin. One more big mistake will put the first nails in their coffin. A DNF for Vettel combined with a Hamilton win would basically put the championship to bed.


He doesn't need that. He needs 5 weekends where he can beat Hamilton out of 7 and to score well in the other two. And that scenario leaves no margin of error to Hamilton. Hamilton is currently favourite but it's a long way from hopeless for Vettel.


The truth is that even using the simple math of Vettel beating Hamilton 5 times out of 7; if Hamilton finishes second in those races, Vettel would only gain 35 points in those 5 races and he would lose 14 in the two races where Hamilton wins and Vettel finishes 2nd. In other words; your scenario of Vettel winning 5 out of 7 wouldn't guarantee anything for Seb. He could still lose that way.

Vettel and Hamilton are not likely to win all of the races from here on either. It's more likely that the Red Bulls will steal one more win and that either Kimi or Valteri will get at least one win and that some other unpredictable things will happen too. There's almost certain to be some engine component penalties from here on out. There's almost certain to be at least one more mechanical DNF between the two of them and possibly a crash for at least one of them.

I agree though that Vettel is very much still alive in the championship fight. He just needs to stay out of trouble and start having some clean race weekends. I do think that he will also need at least a bit of misfortune or a significant mistake from Hamilton too. Otherwise I think he'll fall just a bit short.


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PostPosted: Fri Sep 07, 2018 6:38 pm 
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sandman1347 wrote:

The truth is that even using the simple math of Vettel beating Hamilton 5 times out of 7; if Hamilton finishes second in those races, Vettel would only gain 35 points in those 5 races and he would lose 14 in the two races where Hamilton wins and Vettel finishes 2nd. In other words; your scenario of Vettel winning 5 out of 7 wouldn't guarantee anything for Seb. He could still lose that way.

Vettel and Hamilton are not likely to win all of the races from here on either. It's more likely that the Red Bulls will steal one more win and that either Kimi or Valteri will get at least one win and that some other unpredictable things will happen too. There's almost certain to be some engine component penalties from here on out. There's almost certain to be at least one more mechanical DNF between the two of them and possibly a crash for at least one of them.

I agree though that Vettel is very much still alive in the championship fight. He just needs to stay out of trouble and start having some clean race weekends. I do think that he will also need at least a bit of misfortune or a significant mistake from Hamilton too. Otherwise I think he'll fall just a bit short.


The likelihood of Hamilton finishing second every time Vettel wins is as unlikely as Vettel winning 5 times.

Bottom line. There is 7 races to got and somebody has to win them. Likely at least 6 of them will be won by Vettel or Hamilton.


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PostPosted: Fri Sep 07, 2018 7:23 pm 
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mikeyg123 wrote:
The likelihood of Hamilton finishing second every time Vettel wins is as unlikely as Vettel winning 5 times.

Bottom line. There is 7 races to got and somebody has to win them. Likely at least 6 of them will be won by Vettel or Hamilton.

Interesting (and not very good for Vettel) fact: Hamilton has finished second to Vettel in 3 out of his 5 victories this year (60%). Vettel has finished second to Hamilton in only 1 of his 6 victories this year (16.6%). Based on past performance, the likelihood of Hamilton picking up 18 points every time Vettel wins is a lot higher than of Vettel picking up those same 18 points when Hamilton wins.

Of course, we have to consider that much of the season has been shaped by Vettel's mistakes. The reason he hasn't finished second to Hamilton in several of those victories is that he took himself out of contention and that's why Lewis won in the first place!

Basically, the way I see it is this. It's still Vettel's championship to win in a vacuum. But the way he's driving this year, he has a very low chance of taking it.

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PostPosted: Fri Sep 07, 2018 7:35 pm 
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Exediron wrote:
mikeyg123 wrote:
The likelihood of Hamilton finishing second every time Vettel wins is as unlikely as Vettel winning 5 times.

Bottom line. There is 7 races to got and somebody has to win them. Likely at least 6 of them will be won by Vettel or Hamilton.

Interesting (and not very good for Vettel) fact: Hamilton has finished second to Vettel in 3 out of his 5 victories this year (60%). Vettel has finished second to Hamilton in only 1 of his 6 victories this year (16.6%). Based on past performance, the likelihood of Hamilton picking up 18 points every time Vettel wins is a lot higher than of Vettel picking up those same 18 points when Hamilton wins.

Of course, we have to consider that much of the season has been shaped by Vettel's mistakes. The reason he hasn't finished second to Hamilton in several of those victories is that he took himself out of contention and that's why Lewis won in the first place!

Basically, the way I see it is this. It's still Vettel's championship to win in a vacuum. But the way he's driving this year, he has a very low chance of taking it.


I agree with your last sentence but it wouldn't be the first time Vettel came into his own for the final run in.


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PostPosted: Fri Sep 07, 2018 7:59 pm 
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Blake wrote:
pokerman wrote:
Blake wrote:
TedStriker wrote:
Put Seb in the Mercedes and Lewis in the Ferrari from now on, swap the points too. There's not many out there that would bet hard cash on Seb winning the championship even from 30 points ahead.

The Ferrari is clearly the car to be in, but is it good enough for Seb to beat Lewis? Seb must really hope so or it will be first time in a very long time that the fastest car doesn't win the WDC. I really do feel that if Seb doesn't take the WDC this year, his stock will drop massively and he'll be out of a top team drive in no time.

Odd thing is, it could well be Kimi that decides the WDC this year if he takes any more points off his team mate.


I disagree. Baring a DNF, 30 points is a good size lead, we're it Seb or Lewis... I'd put my money on the big points leader.

I'd back what I believed to be the fastest car.

That is your choice, but it will need to be a very dominate car to make up the points without something in the way of reliability of bad luck issues for the point leader. The Ferrari is far from dominate at this point.

Well I will repeat again 30 points is not a big lead with 7 races to go, I agree the Ferrari is not a dominant car but it's still the best car, I see no races were the Mercedes will be quicker but I do see races were the Ferrari will be quicker so all things being equal Vettel has the potential to score more points than Hamilton.

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PostPosted: Fri Sep 07, 2018 8:04 pm 
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mikeyg123 wrote:
Actually I'm coming round to agreeing. It's still in Sebs hands, just. If he drives at his best for the last 7 races he probably will be champion.

Indeed if the weather had not intervened Vettel had the car to win the last 5 races.

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PostPosted: Sat Sep 08, 2018 6:50 am 
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F1_Ernie wrote:
Teddy007 wrote:
Got to love it when people say 30 points isn't much.... yes.. it is a single DNF or requires a single team to pretty much dominate. People seem to forget that a single driver hasn't dominated so many races in the last 18 months.

Which means Sebastian will win another race sooner or later but so will Lewis Hamilton.

If Lewis doesn't make mistakes and finishes 2nd for the next 3 with Sebastian winning them. That's only 15 points being crawled back. What is likely that Seb will win 3? Lewis and Merc have shown in the last 4 races that they don't need the best car to get a result. It takes one good bit of pace, luck, safety car or even mistake by Ferrari for the win to be grabbed.

Ferrari must be hoping for a DNF. It's unlikely Sebastian will go off and dominate the remaining races.. what we have seen lately is Merc take the fight to Ferrari. We are at the point where I wouldn't predict the race winner.


You can't keep relying on them factors every race even though Vettel and Ferrari have helped out alot.

IMO Vettel is favourite to win both Singapore and Russia as long as he stays calm and keeps it clean. Then it's just a matter of where Hamilton finishes and then we will have a clearer picture. Wasn't the Mercedes the 3rd fastest car in quali at Mexico last year too?

A lot of people giving Singapore to Vettel already but isn’t it predicted to be wet all weekend? I wouldn’t count any chickens yet.


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PostPosted: Sat Sep 08, 2018 8:25 am 
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bonecrasher wrote:
F1_Ernie wrote:
Teddy007 wrote:
Got to love it when people say 30 points isn't much.... yes.. it is a single DNF or requires a single team to pretty much dominate. People seem to forget that a single driver hasn't dominated so many races in the last 18 months.

Which means Sebastian will win another race sooner or later but so will Lewis Hamilton.

If Lewis doesn't make mistakes and finishes 2nd for the next 3 with Sebastian winning them. That's only 15 points being crawled back. What is likely that Seb will win 3? Lewis and Merc have shown in the last 4 races that they don't need the best car to get a result. It takes one good bit of pace, luck, safety car or even mistake by Ferrari for the win to be grabbed.

Ferrari must be hoping for a DNF. It's unlikely Sebastian will go off and dominate the remaining races.. what we have seen lately is Merc take the fight to Ferrari. We are at the point where I wouldn't predict the race winner.


You can't keep relying on them factors every race even though Vettel and Ferrari have helped out alot.

IMO Vettel is favourite to win both Singapore and Russia as long as he stays calm and keeps it clean. Then it's just a matter of where Hamilton finishes and then we will have a clearer picture. Wasn't the Mercedes the 3rd fastest car in quali at Mexico last year too?

A lot of people giving Singapore to Vettel already but isn’t it predicted to be wet all weekend? I wouldn’t count any chickens yet.


No rain forecast.


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PostPosted: Sat Sep 08, 2018 8:42 am 
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Singapore weather: 25 low-32 high degrees, sunny with a gentle breeze for 14th-16th. But looking at the weather in that region it could easily change!


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PostPosted: Sat Sep 08, 2018 10:02 am 
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bonecrasher wrote:
F1_Ernie wrote:
Teddy007 wrote:
Got to love it when people say 30 points isn't much.... yes.. it is a single DNF or requires a single team to pretty much dominate. People seem to forget that a single driver hasn't dominated so many races in the last 18 months.

Which means Sebastian will win another race sooner or later but so will Lewis Hamilton.

If Lewis doesn't make mistakes and finishes 2nd for the next 3 with Sebastian winning them. That's only 15 points being crawled back. What is likely that Seb will win 3? Lewis and Merc have shown in the last 4 races that they don't need the best car to get a result. It takes one good bit of pace, luck, safety car or even mistake by Ferrari for the win to be grabbed.

Ferrari must be hoping for a DNF. It's unlikely Sebastian will go off and dominate the remaining races.. what we have seen lately is Merc take the fight to Ferrari. We are at the point where I wouldn't predict the race winner.


You can't keep relying on them factors every race even though Vettel and Ferrari have helped out alot.

IMO Vettel is favourite to win both Singapore and Russia as long as he stays calm and keeps it clean. Then it's just a matter of where Hamilton finishes and then we will have a clearer picture. Wasn't the Mercedes the 3rd fastest car in quali at Mexico last year too?

A lot of people giving Singapore to Vettel already but isn’t it predicted to be wet all weekend? I wouldn’t count any chickens yet.

Personally I'd be putting Red Bull as favourites based on Monaco form.


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PostPosted: Sat Sep 08, 2018 3:14 pm 
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I can see Hamilton and Vettel winning all the remaining races, especially if Red Bull don't win in Singapore.

Bottas' only chance to win is if he leads and Hamilton isn't 2nd. Kimi appears to have a set of clauses in his contract, its suggested he needs to be on pole to be allowed to win? I think behind the scenes Kimi might be made number 2 after Singapore. Vettel won't need any status help in Singapore.

Hamilton and Vettel have won 7 of the last 8 races, only Austria which would likely have been Hamilton without the SC and even with the SC should have been Vettel without the grid penalty. They have also won 9 of the last 11 with the only other being Monaco.


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PostPosted: Sat Sep 08, 2018 3:19 pm 
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j man wrote:
bonecrasher wrote:
F1_Ernie wrote:
Teddy007 wrote:
Got to love it when people say 30 points isn't much.... yes.. it is a single DNF or requires a single team to pretty much dominate. People seem to forget that a single driver hasn't dominated so many races in the last 18 months.

Which means Sebastian will win another race sooner or later but so will Lewis Hamilton.

If Lewis doesn't make mistakes and finishes 2nd for the next 3 with Sebastian winning them. That's only 15 points being crawled back. What is likely that Seb will win 3? Lewis and Merc have shown in the last 4 races that they don't need the best car to get a result. It takes one good bit of pace, luck, safety car or even mistake by Ferrari for the win to be grabbed.

Ferrari must be hoping for a DNF. It's unlikely Sebastian will go off and dominate the remaining races.. what we have seen lately is Merc take the fight to Ferrari. We are at the point where I wouldn't predict the race winner.


You can't keep relying on them factors every race even though Vettel and Ferrari have helped out alot.

IMO Vettel is favourite to win both Singapore and Russia as long as he stays calm and keeps it clean. Then it's just a matter of where Hamilton finishes and then we will have a clearer picture. Wasn't the Mercedes the 3rd fastest car in quali at Mexico last year too?

A lot of people giving Singapore to Vettel already but isn’t it predicted to be wet all weekend? I wouldn’t count any chickens yet.

Personally I'd be putting Red Bull as favourites based on Monaco form.


Looking at qualifying pace.

2017 Monaco, Ferrari had a good gap to Red Bull, -0.3 but in 2018 were +0.2 behind.
2017 Singapore, Ferrari had a good gap to Red Bull of -0.3, so it could be interesting.


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PostPosted: Sat Sep 08, 2018 4:54 pm 
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Given Ricciardo is driving a grenade, I wouldn't be putting too much faith in both Red Bull's getting in the way of the title chasers. Max is well in with a shout, but Singapore really isn't the place for his kind of on the limit driving and defence, could end in tears.

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PostPosted: Sat Sep 08, 2018 5:42 pm 
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j man wrote:
bonecrasher wrote:
F1_Ernie wrote:
Teddy007 wrote:
Got to love it when people say 30 points isn't much.... yes.. it is a single DNF or requires a single team to pretty much dominate. People seem to forget that a single driver hasn't dominated so many races in the last 18 months.

Which means Sebastian will win another race sooner or later but so will Lewis Hamilton.

If Lewis doesn't make mistakes and finishes 2nd for the next 3 with Sebastian winning them. That's only 15 points being crawled back. What is likely that Seb will win 3? Lewis and Merc have shown in the last 4 races that they don't need the best car to get a result. It takes one good bit of pace, luck, safety car or even mistake by Ferrari for the win to be grabbed.

Ferrari must be hoping for a DNF. It's unlikely Sebastian will go off and dominate the remaining races.. what we have seen lately is Merc take the fight to Ferrari. We are at the point where I wouldn't predict the race winner.


You can't keep relying on them factors every race even though Vettel and Ferrari have helped out alot.

IMO Vettel is favourite to win both Singapore and Russia as long as he stays calm and keeps it clean. Then it's just a matter of where Hamilton finishes and then we will have a clearer picture. Wasn't the Mercedes the 3rd fastest car in quali at Mexico last year too?

A lot of people giving Singapore to Vettel already but isn’t it predicted to be wet all weekend? I wouldn’t count any chickens yet.

Personally I'd be putting Red Bull as favourites based on Monaco form.


Redbull has fallen off so much since Austria though, for whatever reason. Even in Hungary they weren’t really competitive. Unless they have a major upgrade package coming for Singapore I can’t see them outperforming Ferrari and even Merc there.


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PostPosted: Sat Sep 08, 2018 6:55 pm 
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sandman1347 wrote:
Zoue wrote:
KingVoid wrote:
sandman1347 wrote:
KingVoid wrote:
Regarding qualifying pace, I agree that Hamilton is the benchmark on the current grid. I think that Alonso is about 1 tenth slower than Hamilton over a hotlap, which is also roughly where I rate Vettel. Rosberg was also on average about 1 tenth slower than Hamilton in qualifying.

IMO, the only driver currently who could match or beat Hamilton in qualifying is Verstappen.

This is roughly how I rate them over one lap:

1. Hamilton = Verstappen
2. Alonso = Vettel = Ricciardo

There is about 1 tenth between tier 1 and tier 2.

That’s just my opinion.

The obvious question is, how can you rate Vettel as even with Ricciardo? What's the reasoning there?

Remember how Vettel, when unmotivated, was beaten by Raikkonen in qualifying in 2016?

I doubt 2014 is representative of Vettel’s actual speed. This would imply that Verstappen is about 0.350s faster than Vettel, which I find very hard to believe.

Christian Horner said on his podcast that Vettel is the best driver to ever drive for Red Bull. Horner also said that Vettel simply couldn’t adapt to the 2014 Red Bull car. Vettel doesn’t drive for Red Bull anymore, so I don’t see a reason why Horner would lie to protect him.

Yeah I'd agree with this. Horner has no reason to big up his former driver so it's likely to be the truth as he sees it.

I kind of saw that comment as Horner basically acknowledging the fact that Vettel won 4 championships for them and was at the center of their period of dominance. I do think that 2014 was a sub par year for Vettel but I think it's harsh on Daniel to essentially ignore the fact that he bested Seb. I'm generally opposed to ignoring what actually takes place in favor of opinions...

Horner isn't the only one who says that about Vettel. Franz Tost rated both Verstappen and Vettel ahead of Ricciardo in terms of speed/talent, and he worked with all three at Toro Rosso.


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PostPosted: Sat Sep 08, 2018 7:05 pm 
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Johnson wrote:
j man wrote:
bonecrasher wrote:
F1_Ernie wrote:
Teddy007 wrote:
Got to love it when people say 30 points isn't much.... yes.. it is a single DNF or requires a single team to pretty much dominate. People seem to forget that a single driver hasn't dominated so many races in the last 18 months.

Which means Sebastian will win another race sooner or later but so will Lewis Hamilton.

If Lewis doesn't make mistakes and finishes 2nd for the next 3 with Sebastian winning them. That's only 15 points being crawled back. What is likely that Seb will win 3? Lewis and Merc have shown in the last 4 races that they don't need the best car to get a result. It takes one good bit of pace, luck, safety car or even mistake by Ferrari for the win to be grabbed.

Ferrari must be hoping for a DNF. It's unlikely Sebastian will go off and dominate the remaining races.. what we have seen lately is Merc take the fight to Ferrari. We are at the point where I wouldn't predict the race winner.


You can't keep relying on them factors every race even though Vettel and Ferrari have helped out alot.

IMO Vettel is favourite to win both Singapore and Russia as long as he stays calm and keeps it clean. Then it's just a matter of where Hamilton finishes and then we will have a clearer picture. Wasn't the Mercedes the 3rd fastest car in quali at Mexico last year too?

A lot of people giving Singapore to Vettel already but isn’t it predicted to be wet all weekend? I wouldn’t count any chickens yet.

Personally I'd be putting Red Bull as favourites based on Monaco form.


Looking at qualifying pace.

2017 Monaco, Ferrari had a good gap to Red Bull, -0.3 but in 2018 were +0.2 behind.
2017 Singapore, Ferrari had a good gap to Red Bull of -0.3, so it could be interesting.


Red Bull started slowly in 2017 and heated up real good, but it's the opposite this year so they will have to overturn a larger deficit in order to magically become the most competitive outfit in Singapore.


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PostPosted: Sat Sep 08, 2018 9:04 pm 
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Johnson wrote:
I can see Hamilton and Vettel winning all the remaining races, especially if Red Bull don't win in Singapore.

Bottas' only chance to win is if he leads and Hamilton isn't 2nd. Kimi appears to have a set of clauses in his contract, its suggested he needs to be on pole to be allowed to win? I think behind the scenes Kimi might be made number 2 after Singapore. Vettel won't need any status help in Singapore.

Hamilton and Vettel have won 7 of the last 8 races, only Austria which would likely have been Hamilton without the SC and even with the SC should have been Vettel without the grid penalty. They have also won 9 of the last 11 with the only other being Monaco.


There's probably an obvious answer to this but here goes anyway. Vettel needs to win in Abu Dhabi with Hamilton third or lower to win the WDC. Raikkonen puts it on pole and is leading a comfortable Ferrari 1-2. I guess Ferrari at that point have a choice of breaking Raikkonen's contract or losing the WDC?

This assumes:
1. The rumour about Raikkonen being on pole is true
2. There isn't an exception in the last race of a season if it means Ferrari winning the WDC.


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PostPosted: Sat Sep 08, 2018 9:09 pm 
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So out of the current field, which driver(s) do we think would be ahead in the Ferrari at this point, and which would be favourite to take the WDC? I'll start off with the obvious - Fernando.


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PostPosted: Sat Sep 08, 2018 9:21 pm 
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TedStriker wrote:
So out of the current field, which driver(s) do we think would be ahead in the Ferrari at this point, and which would be favourite to take the WDC? I'll start off with the obvious - Fernando.


:thumbup:
Talking about obvious: Hamilton. Ricciardo!


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PostPosted: Sat Sep 08, 2018 10:00 pm 
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JN23 wrote:
There's probably an obvious answer to this but here goes anyway. Vettel needs to win in Abu Dhabi with Hamilton third or lower to win the WDC. Raikkonen puts it on pole and is leading a comfortable Ferrari 1-2. I guess Ferrari at that point have a choice of breaking Raikkonen's contract or losing the WDC?

This assumes:
1. The rumour about Raikkonen being on pole is true
2. There isn't an exception in the last race of a season if it means Ferrari winning the WDC.

In that situation, I am utterly, 100% certain that Raikkonen would let Vettel win without team orders. No question about it.

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PostPosted: Sat Sep 08, 2018 10:11 pm 
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Exediron wrote:
JN23 wrote:
There's probably an obvious answer to this but here goes anyway. Vettel needs to win in Abu Dhabi with Hamilton third or lower to win the WDC. Raikkonen puts it on pole and is leading a comfortable Ferrari 1-2. I guess Ferrari at that point have a choice of breaking Raikkonen's contract or losing the WDC?

This assumes:
1. The rumour about Raikkonen being on pole is true
2. There isn't an exception in the last race of a season if it means Ferrari winning the WDC.

In that situation, I am utterly, 100% certain that Raikkonen would let Vettel win without team orders. No question about it.


Yeah fair point, you're probably right.


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PostPosted: Sat Sep 08, 2018 11:01 pm 
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Exediron wrote:
JN23 wrote:
There's probably an obvious answer to this but here goes anyway. Vettel needs to win in Abu Dhabi with Hamilton third or lower to win the WDC. Raikkonen puts it on pole and is leading a comfortable Ferrari 1-2. I guess Ferrari at that point have a choice of breaking Raikkonen's contract or losing the WDC?

This assumes:
1. The rumour about Raikkonen being on pole is true
2. There isn't an exception in the last race of a season if it means Ferrari winning the WDC.

In that situation, I am utterly, 100% certain that Raikkonen would let Vettel win without team orders. No question about it.

Even if he knows it's his last race in F1 and would be his last win?


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PostPosted: Sat Sep 08, 2018 11:29 pm 
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KingVoid wrote:
sandman1347 wrote:
Zoue wrote:
KingVoid wrote:
sandman1347 wrote:
The obvious question is, how can you rate Vettel as even with Ricciardo? What's the reasoning there?

Remember how Vettel, when unmotivated, was beaten by Raikkonen in qualifying in 2016?

I doubt 2014 is representative of Vettel’s actual speed. This would imply that Verstappen is about 0.350s faster than Vettel, which I find very hard to believe.

Christian Horner said on his podcast that Vettel is the best driver to ever drive for Red Bull. Horner also said that Vettel simply couldn’t adapt to the 2014 Red Bull car. Vettel doesn’t drive for Red Bull anymore, so I don’t see a reason why Horner would lie to protect him.

Yeah I'd agree with this. Horner has no reason to big up his former driver so it's likely to be the truth as he sees it.

I kind of saw that comment as Horner basically acknowledging the fact that Vettel won 4 championships for them and was at the center of their period of dominance. I do think that 2014 was a sub par year for Vettel but I think it's harsh on Daniel to essentially ignore the fact that he bested Seb. I'm generally opposed to ignoring what actually takes place in favor of opinions...

Horner isn't the only one who says that about Vettel. Franz Tost rated both Verstappen and Vettel ahead of Ricciardo in terms of speed/talent, and he worked with all three at Toro Rosso.

Tost also rated Kvyat as better than Ricciardo so I would take what he says with a pinch of salt.

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PostPosted: Sat Sep 08, 2018 11:38 pm 
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dompclarke wrote:
Exediron wrote:
JN23 wrote:
There's probably an obvious answer to this but here goes anyway. Vettel needs to win in Abu Dhabi with Hamilton third or lower to win the WDC. Raikkonen puts it on pole and is leading a comfortable Ferrari 1-2. I guess Ferrari at that point have a choice of breaking Raikkonen's contract or losing the WDC?

This assumes:
1. The rumour about Raikkonen being on pole is true
2. There isn't an exception in the last race of a season if it means Ferrari winning the WDC.

In that situation, I am utterly, 100% certain that Raikkonen would let Vettel win without team orders. No question about it.

Even if he knows it's his last race in F1 and would be his last win?

Yes. I can't see any chance he'd want to go out of the sport with his last act having been to cost the team he spent most of his career with another championship after ten years. I just don't see it happening.

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PostPosted: Sun Sep 09, 2018 2:57 pm 
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If Kimi does have a clause that he can fight for the win if he is on pole, I am sure it is covered by other clauses relating to how late it is in the season and how many points he is off the WDC lead etc etc. Even Vettel and Hamilton are probably contracted to help the other driver in the run in - if they have no shot themselves.


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PostPosted: Mon Sep 17, 2018 10:15 am 
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Zoue wrote:
pokerman wrote:
Zoue wrote:
pokerman wrote:
Zoue wrote:
I think it has. If you look from Spa to Monza there were noticeable differences in the Mercedes performance in particular. They went from having relatively poor traction at Spa to having one of the best at Monza and this helped them close the gap to the extent that the cars looked more or less equal in Italy (qualifying aside, where Ferrari did look quicker).

I agree that Vettel's mistake at Monza has made the gap look bigger than it should be, but my point is that over the remaining races there is no reason to believe that Vettel will suddenly be able to pull out a 30-pt lead (net) over Hamilton. People are writing as though Hamilton has a mountain to climb, but from my perspective I think he's sitting in the hot seat and it's Vettel who really has to be afraid.

Being quicker in qualifying is a big thing in itself, in the race itself Hamilton was racing the slower Ferrari driver so you can't define the actual performances of the cars, general opinion was that the race was there for Ferrari to win.

Agreed that qualifying confers an advantage. In Monza Hamilton was comfortably quicker than Kimi. Understand what you are saying about Vettel being a better benchmark but how much faster than Kimi does Hamilton have to be before we acknowledge that maybe he's not driving a slower car?

I think you have to look at the last few races in general, the gaps will fluctuate, Monza was close, Spa Hamilton said Vettel was 3 to 4 tenths quicker, going forward at best Mercedes will be close at worse Ferrari will be quicker, that's how it looks to me.

I think if you have generally the quicker car, certainly quicker in qualifying which confers a big advantage, then you are more in control of your destiny and 30 points is not massive, even Vettel has said this.

Agree to a point. 30 points isn't massive but - a DNF aside - with only 7 races to go it is. Agree that qualifying confers a big advantage and if they were level Ferrari's inroads in that area would make Vettel the favourite. But do we really see Hamilton not winning any more races this year? I think he will, and then that 30 points becomes 37 at least to overcome with only 6 races to do that in. Not impossible of course and a DNF would certain change everything but for me I think that might ne a hurdle too far. Not trying to claim any crystal ball or anything but I don't see Ferrari suddenly raising their game so significantly

Well not to claim prescience or anything but the scenario I predicted has played out and Vettel now needs 40 points (not 37, as I saw) with only 6 races to get them in. So he basically needs to win every race from now on, which I'm just not seeing. We clearly can't predict car performance with any accuracy and all this talk of Vettel having an advantage is just not realistic. For Hamilton to lose this now is virtually unthinkable.


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PostPosted: Mon Sep 17, 2018 11:05 am 
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Zoue wrote:
Zoue wrote:
pokerman wrote:
Zoue wrote:
pokerman wrote:
Being quicker in qualifying is a big thing in itself, in the race itself Hamilton was racing the slower Ferrari driver so you can't define the actual performances of the cars, general opinion was that the race was there for Ferrari to win.

Agreed that qualifying confers an advantage. In Monza Hamilton was comfortably quicker than Kimi. Understand what you are saying about Vettel being a better benchmark but how much faster than Kimi does Hamilton have to be before we acknowledge that maybe he's not driving a slower car?

I think you have to look at the last few races in general, the gaps will fluctuate, Monza was close, Spa Hamilton said Vettel was 3 to 4 tenths quicker, going forward at best Mercedes will be close at worse Ferrari will be quicker, that's how it looks to me.

I think if you have generally the quicker car, certainly quicker in qualifying which confers a big advantage, then you are more in control of your destiny and 30 points is not massive, even Vettel has said this.

Agree to a point. 30 points isn't massive but - a DNF aside - with only 7 races to go it is. Agree that qualifying confers a big advantage and if they were level Ferrari's inroads in that area would make Vettel the favourite. But do we really see Hamilton not winning any more races this year? I think he will, and then that 30 points becomes 37 at least to overcome with only 6 races to do that in. Not impossible of course and a DNF would certain change everything but for me I think that might ne a hurdle too far. Not trying to claim any crystal ball or anything but I don't see Ferrari suddenly raising their game so significantly

Well not to claim prescience or anything but the scenario I predicted has played out and Vettel now needs 40 points (not 37, as I saw) with only 6 races to get them in. So he basically needs to win every race from now on, which I'm just not seeing. We clearly can't predict car performance with any accuracy and all this talk of Vettel having an advantage is just not realistic. For Hamilton to lose this now is virtually unthinkable.

Yeah what happened in Singapore is a game changer although I do think that Ferrari/Vettel under performed to what they were capable of, Vettel's own words after qualifying.

It's a game changer because Mercedes were competitive on a track were they shouldn't have been and then on top of that Hamilton produced an incredible performance which now gives me confidence that he can win some more races.

However that still doesn't change what I said previously about Ferrari having the faster car in the last 4 races, Hamilton's own words as well, but clearly Mercedes are now upping their game and Vettel might not be given the opportunity to make amends for all the points/wins he has thrown away.

So for the first time I finally see Hamilton as the favourite for the title in a season were Vettel has been favourite because of the Ferrari but just didn't capitalise on what they had.

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PostPosted: Mon Sep 17, 2018 11:36 am 
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Mark Hughes seems to think the Mercedes was the third best car in qualifying but the Mercedes/Hamilton combo produced the perfect lap.

https://www.motorsportmagazine.com/repo ... rix-report

"It was a great lap that Hamilton summoned from the depths of competitive desire, car control, commitment and precision to set pole. But it was, as Vettel insisted, a beatable time – i.e. Vettel’s Ferrari probably had a faster one within it – but he didn’t access it, because of “the way we composed our qualifying”.

The Mercedes, though much better around the team’s bogey circuit than last year (when it had been 0.6sec adrift of pole), still retained strains of its difficulties around this street track with its wide spread of corner speeds, something that tends to catch out the low-rake Mercedes more than the others. So it still required more manhandling than ideal, still had an initial reluctance to turn in to the slower turns and could still snap its rear out angrily on the exits.

The Ferrari’s beautiful flow, its stunning rear-end grip, or the Red Bull’s aggressive direction change were something Hamilton and Valtteri Bottas could only dream of. But the silver car could be danced to a decent time if kept within its narrower sweet spot. The team teased the car into that window, and Hamilton danced one of the most beautiful laps he has ever danced."

"But even that level of personal performance translated into pole only because Ferrari missed its own, much wider, sweet spot by a mile – and because Verstappen’s Red Bull had a persistent misfire and, on one occasion, even a false neutral. Verstappen’s lap was arguably the equal of Hamilton’s (he reckoned it the best he’s ever done) but even the fact that Hamilton was only 0.3sec faster than a misfiring Red Bull supports the contention that the Ferrari could have comfortably eclipsed them both. Hamilton’s lap was amazing – for that car around this track, and it was a full 0.7sec faster than team-mate Bottas’ (a similar margin to last year when they were fifth and sixth quickest here). But it would likely have been good only for third had Ferrari and Red Bull been able to maximise their cars.

Verstappen was, on the one hand, deeply frustrated with the apparently untraceable engine problem he’d suffered with the Red Bull throughout the weekend, but, on the other, thrilled with his lap. Whenever run on the full power map it would suffer random torque reductions, this in turn triggering an occasional loss of drive.

“The car was just bogging down,” said Verstappen. “We detuned the engine to try to help the driveability but it still didn’t work properly. On my last run I was a couple of tenths up, then arrived at Turn 16-17 and went to short-shift and the engine just cut out. I don’t know if it was going to be pole – maybe – and definitely closer than three tenths.”

Ferrari found only 0.5sec between Q2 and Q3 (and even that Q2 time was compromised), Mercedes 1.2sec and Red Bull 0.9sec."

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PostPosted: Tue Sep 18, 2018 5:01 pm 
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Found these stats online which shows the odds are very much in favour of Hamilton winning the WDC:

Russia - Mercedes have won every race
Japan - Mercedes have won every race since 2014
USA - Mercedes have won every race since 2014
Mexico - 2 of the last 3 races have been won by Mercedes
Brazil - 3 of the last 4 races have been won by Mercedes
Abu Dhabi - Mercedes have won every race since 2014

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PostPosted: Tue Sep 18, 2018 6:12 pm 
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To borrow an old saying: Vettel needs snookers in order to win this championship. He looked a broken man on that Singapore podium.


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PostPosted: Tue Sep 18, 2018 6:33 pm 
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BMWSauber84 wrote:
To borrow an old saying: Vettel needs snookers in order to win this championship. He looked a broken man on that Singapore podium.

One thing I would say in the interest of making things more interesting is that the pressure is off Vettel now. He has nothing to lose now and he tends to perform his best in these scenarios. His performance at the end of 2010 and 2012 proves that.

Also Hamilton tends to lose focus a bit when he's too far ahead or too far behind.


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PostPosted: Tue Sep 18, 2018 7:53 pm 
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UnlikeUday wrote:
Found these stats online which shows the odds are very much in favour of Hamilton winning the WDC:

Russia - Mercedes have won every race
Japan - Mercedes have won every race since 2014
USA - Mercedes have won every race since 2014
Mexico - 2 of the last 3 races have been won by Mercedes
Brazil - 3 of the last 4 races have been won by Mercedes
Abu Dhabi - Mercedes have won every race since 2014


Pointless stats when they include the Mercedes dominant period.

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PostPosted: Tue Sep 18, 2018 10:59 pm 
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Lewis Kimi and Vettel have all used their maximum about of engine /Turbo components

Can they make it to the end of the season without penalties ?

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PostPosted: Tue Sep 18, 2018 11:03 pm 
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Xink wrote:
Lewis Kimi and Vettel have all used their maximum about of engine /Turbo components

Can they make it to the end of the season without penalties ?

I'd love to see Lewis and Seb both start at the back in USA and just see who can make it to the front! Especially because I'm actually going to the race this year!


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PostPosted: Tue Sep 18, 2018 11:58 pm 
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sandman1347 wrote:
BMWSauber84 wrote:
To borrow an old saying: Vettel needs snookers in order to win this championship. He looked a broken man on that Singapore podium.

One thing I would say in the interest of making things more interesting is that the pressure is off Vettel now. He has nothing to lose now and he tends to perform his best in these scenarios. His performance at the end of 2010 and 2012 proves that.

Also Hamilton tends to lose focus a bit when he's too far ahead or too far behind.

He didn't lose focus last year, I think it's more of a case of he loses focus when the title has been won.

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PostPosted: Wed Sep 19, 2018 12:10 am 
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Xink wrote:
Lewis Kimi and Vettel have all used their maximum about of engine /Turbo components

Can they make it to the end of the season without penalties ?

Hamilton and Vettel still have 3 engines in commission, Kimi has 2 I think?

Kimi might have a problem also Bottas with them both blowing an engine, Hamilton and Vettel both have their second engines that have not been maxed out yet but I guess they won't be as good as their third engines, with that in mind sometimes the second engines get cycled back in at the slower tracks.

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PostPosted: Sun Sep 30, 2018 9:41 pm 
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Well 5 races to go and 125 points on the table.

If Lewis can get 2 more wins - That will give at least 64 Point lead with only 75 on the table .
Seb will have to be hoping he has at least 1 DNF to have any chance of turning this one round

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PostPosted: Sun Sep 30, 2018 10:32 pm 
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Xink wrote:
Seb will have to be hoping he has at least 1 DNF to have any chance of turning this one round

He needs two, realistically. And Lewis has already had one, don't forget - Seb hasn't had a mechanical DNF yet. The odds say he will, and at that point it's over.

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PostPosted: Mon Oct 01, 2018 7:09 am 
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pokerman wrote:
sandman1347 wrote:
BMWSauber84 wrote:
To borrow an old saying: Vettel needs snookers in order to win this championship. He looked a broken man on that Singapore podium.

One thing I would say in the interest of making things more interesting is that the pressure is off Vettel now. He has nothing to lose now and he tends to perform his best in these scenarios. His performance at the end of 2010 and 2012 proves that.

Also Hamilton tends to lose focus a bit when he's too far ahead or too far behind.

He didn't lose focus last year, I think it's more of a case of he loses focus when the title has been won.

yeah I'd agree with that


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