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Getting back to the title thread. Hamilton was 40 points down on Vettel this time last year. Vettel has made 2 errors so far this year with Hamilton suffering from Mechanical errors.... Now Hamilton leaves on his summer break with a 24 point gap advantage. There are some strong Mercedes tracks out there and if we get some rain during a race, then Hamilton would win. Think Hamilton is in a better frame of mind compared to last year this same around .

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Thought this thread got deleted for a minute!...

Last year has nothing to do with this year.
Spa and Monza could even this all again if the Ferrari is the real deal.
It will come down to wether Kimi can be a better blocker than Bottas.

That's not really true though, is it? Especially in F1 where the car is such a big factor. Just take a look at Blakes post a few posts down.

Senna was already considered by many the greatest F1 driver ever before he died in quiet a few polls and publications in the early 90s. He was already in the same conversation with Fangio and Clark by the late 80s..

With all due respect, you have no idea what you are talking about and I am almost certain you wasn't watching F1 in that era.

Nah, at the end of the year, you cant be in clearly inferior car and win WDC. Thats the fact of modern F1. You need at least equally fast car if not the fastest car to win WDC. In modern era, nobody with clearly inferior car has ever won WDC. Alonso came closest but once again faster car with fast driver won the championships. Reliability is not as big of an issue now as it used to be 10 years back. At least not for the teams that fight for championships.
And mind you, neither Hamilton nor Vettel will keep making mistakes or having off days. They are simply too good to be make too many mistakes in a year where they have championship winning cars with no real challenge from their teammates.
It will come down the the package and to some extent reliability in last few rounds. Both are quick enough to beat the other in faster car.
And that is why I firmly believe barring weather, it will come down to the development of the car to decide WDC. Faster car will win it.

Thats the thing though, the traditional Mercedes strong tracks of hybrid years are going to be Ferrari's strong tracks as well this year. Ferrari have power advantage going into the 2nd half of the year. And the car does not have clear weakness like it did last year at certain tracks. This is completely different ball game this year.

That's not true. It's more that the car that wins the WDC is obviously never going to look noticeably inferior because it's achieving good results.

2012 - Alonso nearly did it, his problem was on some weekends he had the 4th best car. Otherwise he likely would have done it. Too many cars got between him and Vettel. This season is different its a 2 horse race.

Alonso himself did similar during the 2nd half of 2006 though, Alonso won 1 single race in the 2nd half of 2006 (he only won that because Schumacher blew up in front of him) but he kept coming 2nd to Schumacher and held on to win. Rosberg challenged for the 2014 doing the same thing, as well as 2016.

You can win the title in a car that is the best for say 5/20 races but you need to win all 5 of those races and also maybe luck into another 1-2 through SC's or rivals breaking down. You have to finish nearly every race in the podium. You will win the title if the car who has the best car in say 13 races suffers poor reliability. Its how Alonso won his 2005 title and how Vettel would have won it last year if it was Hamilton who had the reliability/driver errors in the late part of the year instead of Vettel.

Absolutely incorrect. Vettel had a 14 point lead at the break not 40. Vettel had a 25 point lead after Monaco plus Hamilton had a car advantage. Spa, Monza and Singapore will be crucial in terms of who wins the championship.

Maybe just read and understand it again before you reply wetting your panties.

Also this has moved to another thread to get this thread back on topic.

Nearly didnt mean anything in the end. Redbull was consistently faster in 2nd half. A driver of Alonso's caliber too can only do so much. At the end of the day he couldnt win the championship even after Vettel managed to get hit and still nurse wounded car to 6th position in last race.

2006 was completely different era. As I said, those were different days. Reliability is not as big of a concern even with component restrictions in place for front runners and even when it comes up, the top 2 teams are so much faster than everyone else that they can still charge back to the front with little effort even after having terrible Saturday.

Yes, driver matters, but not as much as we would like to believe. The top drivers ending up in top team is by design. Not accident. Top teams want top drivers for themselves. And usually only 1 top driver in their team. Thats not mistake. That is by design and choice.

Drivers make a massive difference. Just look at last season. Without a top driver Merc would not have won the WDC.

They wouldnt have. But Mercedes didnt wake up and were suddenly challenging for championship. They were doing that for a while and they built the team around Hamilton for last 4 years and when it comes to new engine formula, it goes even back. They prepared for that with heavy investment and development.
A top team will always have a top driver in their ranks. That is what I am saying. Out of the 2 top drivers, who comes on the top at the end, is usually decided by the machinery and battle between the teammates if there is no other challenger from the outside. When challenge from outside comes, teams find a way to define No. 1 and 2 clearly like we are seeing this year and like we saw last year as well.
There was little doubt in anyone's mind that Ferrari clearly fell behind in development race last year. They look much stronger this year and going forward it will be car development that is most likely be the differentiation. But you still need a top driver to make that happen.

Top driver cant overhaul the car deficiency anymore in F1. Those days are gone.

IMO Alonso would be leading the championship if he was driving this year's Ferrari. I can't see him being 24 points behind Hamilton who has had a mechanical DNF and 2 other mechanical problems.

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PF1 Pick 10 Competition

2016: 24th place
2017: 4th place

Wins: Spain 2016, Canada 2017, Malaysia 2017
Podiums: 2nd Germany 2016, 3rd Mexico 2016

They wouldnt have. But Mercedes didnt wake up and were suddenly challenging for championship. They were doing that for a while and they built the team around Hamilton for last 4 years and when it comes to new engine formula, it goes even back. They prepared for that with heavy investment and development.
A top team will always have a top driver in their ranks. That is what I am saying. Out of the 2 top drivers, who comes on the top at the end, is usually decided by the machinery and battle between the teammates if there is no other challenger from the outside. When challenge from outside comes, teams find a way to define No. 1 and 2 clearly like we are seeing this year and like we saw last year as well.
There was little doubt in anyone's mind that Ferrari clearly fell behind in development race last year. They look much stronger this year and going forward it will be car development that is most likely be the differentiation. But you still need a top driver to make that happen.

Top driver cant overhaul the car deficiency anymore in F1. Those days are gone.[/quote]

What you're actually saying is that a top driver can't overhaul a car deficiency against an equally good driver. Well no, obviously.

2006,Alonso and Schumacher had 1 mechanical DNF each. Schumachers first in 5 years. Alonso had 1 mechanical DNF over all of 2005 and 2006. Reliability was better back then.

The top 2 teams were much faster than everybody else in 2006 too. 14 of Alonso’s 16 finishes were top 2’s.

Vettel lost the title essentially last year with his Malaysia qualifying break down and Japanese GP DNF

Why is it with Alonso, its about what he will do in other peoples car? Your assumption is based on the season going the same way and Alonso getting all the good results Vettel got and none of the bad.

Alonso is better than Vettel and Hamilton, I can't see him making the mistakes Vettel has made this year. Vettel is 24 points behind while his main rival has had a mechanical dnf, shows how costly his mistakes have been.

I'm sure if I said Alonso would be on more points than Hamilton it would be fine though

_________________
PF1 Pick 10 Competition

2016: 24th place
2017: 4th place

Wins: Spain 2016, Canada 2017, Malaysia 2017
Podiums: 2nd Germany 2016, 3rd Mexico 2016

It won't be though.

Alonso is not better than any of this guys am sorry, not by any metric of measurement outside of perception.

I have said this before and will say it again, you don't luck into being a serial winner you can luck into the one off, Fangio, Clark, Senna, Schumacher, Vettel and Hamilton majority of this guys fill the top of F1 stats for a reason.

Also Hamilton had his DNF behind Vettel, had that DNF been on a day when Vettel won like it happened to Vettel.

I don't really care what you think. Who mentioned it's luck to win multiple titles? Alonso has never had a long period of a top car like Vettel and Hamilton, what you are saying is pure rubbish. You obviously have a dislike for Alonso, maybe it's because he nearly beat your man in an inferior car.

Doesn't matter, he has still had a mechanical DNF and lost 12 points, doesn't matter who you are behind. Vettel made one of his errors this season and lost 25, that was his own fault. Vettels errors are why Hamilton has the 24 point gap in the championship.

_________________
PF1 Pick 10 Competition

2016: 24th place
2017: 4th place

Wins: Spain 2016, Canada 2017, Malaysia 2017
Podiums: 2nd Germany 2016, 3rd Mexico 2016

Based on what? Alonso has been living on past reputation for half of a decade now. As far as I know, he's never been teamed with Vettel so I think it's speculative to claim that he's better. Alonso has been teamed with Hamilton and Hamilton had the upper-hand despite the fact that it was his first season in F1 so it's quite dubious to claim that Alonso is better than Hamilton. It seems that driving in a lousy car has enhanced Alonso's reputation among some fans. As though he would never make any mistakes or have any bad luck if he were up front right now. I think that's nonsense to be blunt. He would be driving against drivers of a much higher caliber if he were up front and the margin for error would become a lot slimmer. I think Alonso is great and absolutely top-shelf but I do get kind of sick of these exaggerated assertions.

Alonso’s 2010 season was very error prone. He made more mistakes than both Hamilton and Vettel that season. Vettel lost a net 79 points relative to Alonso because of reliability that year, otherwise he would have dominated 2010 as easily as 2011. Hamilton drove the third best car on the grid in 2010 and was overall arguably the best performing driver that season.

If Alonso can make five mistakes (Australia, China, Monaco, Silverstone, Spa) over the course of a season in his prime, then who is to say he wouldn’t be making mistakes in the 2018 Ferrari? What Vettel did in Germany was very similar to what Alonso did in Spa 2010.

mate almost doesn't count you sound like my 10yr old.

And you can cry me a river with the Hamilton being 24pts ahead as no one is fixated about it as you are, saying I dislike Alonso because he almost beat Vettel in an inferior car really, did you think it through at all?

Was 2012 not his prime? I'm not convinced he's even out of it yet but that's another discussion.

All drivers make mistakes so you have to look at the context of the mistakes. In 2010 Alonso was in his first year at a team, first good car for 2 seasons and was in a battle with a car half a second faster (Red Bull) and a car roughly similar driven by his biggest rival (Lewis/Macca). He overdrove several times that year trying to do far too much because of the speed deficit and it cost him, I agree Lewis was better that year but I thought it was pretty similar with Seb and Alonso for one reason or another but yeah an unusual amount of mistakes from Alonso.

2012 he still had nearly a half second deficit to Red Bull and now Lewis too in the Macca is up there for large parts of the season and he had Kimi in a similar Lotus but look at the difference. One arguable mistake all year (Suzuka).

Same driver and only one season in between but the context changed and he knew better how to approach that speed deficit situation because his own situation had changed since too.

If he has the fastest car to fall back on and is comfortable within the team then he's in a 2006 situation but much more experienced and in his prime so it's just external pressure and reliability left to cause you issues and if you can withstand Michael and Ferrari without making lots of mistakes I'm not sure why he'd suddenly falter in this one and make as many mistakes in a fastest car scenario like 2018 as 2010 when he has to chase much faster cars in his first good car for a couple of years.

In Seb's scenario he's had a trial run almost with last year and now with the same level of comfort within the team and now with a quicker and for the most part quickest outright car he's making more mistakes. The only thing context wise I can think off as to why he'd be making more mistakes is that he might feel this is his best chance to do it for Ferrari and it's his first real good chance since 2013 to win the title so that could lead to a bit more nervousness naturally.

I think if you just picked Alonso up and dumped him in this years Ferrari then yeah he could make the same kind of mistakes as Seb. First top car in 11 years that he can top the majority of sessions in and no-one's gone this long between titles so there's bound to be nervousness,giddyness and hiccups galore to catch him out.

Give him last year as well though to warm up and get settled back in a top car then no, I agree with Ernie, I don't think he'd be making these mistakes in this years Ferrari at all and would be leading the title chase assuming reliability is the same obviously.

Everyone makes one or two though so over the year he'd have a couple I'm sure and if Seb 2013's the back half no-one will care about the points dropped in the first half, much like 2010 and 2012.

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"Clark came through at the end of the first lap so far ahead that we in the pits were convinced that the rest of the field must have been wiped out in an accident."
-Eddie Dennis, describing the dominance of Jim Clark in the Lotus 49 at Spa 1967

Why are we so fixated about Alonso in a thread about predicting Lewis Hamilton as the 2018 champion???

This.

He's still producing good results given his machinery and putting other drivers in the shade, so I can't imagine why you would think he's only living on past reputation. Kimi's often slated for not producing now, yet his past reputation was arguably just as high as Alonso's at one point. The reason they are viewed differently now is because of how they are driving now, not because of how they used to.

So what you're saying is that Alonso at his worst might not be doing a better job than Vettel? What if he was at average Alonso level?

Though we are now comparing Alonso on how we assume his machinery to be and against a driver who we don't really know the speed of. Kimi (who I'm a big fan of) is in a car at the sharp and against a multiple champion who's speed is proven.
Because of this Alonso's speed could be argued. I've no idea if he's lost it or not, but the view he's living on past glory is just as valid as the one he's as fast as ever - in reality he's probably somewhere between these views

That would be true if we are only judging Alonso on this year. But he's demonstrated ability in every year he's been driving, so why would we assume that this year is somehow different? He's hammering his team mate, so what else can he do?

Point is there's never really been a year where you could say he's been in decline, unlike, say, Kimi (sorry, but he's the most obvious and relevant example!). There's nothing to suggest he's living off past glories, because he's still consistently beating others and has rarely, if indeed ever, been shown up.

Now all this doesn't mean that you can say he's definitely still the best out there, but given the lack of evidence of any decline there's no reason to claim that he's living off past reputation, either.

I know the ins and outs, just putting an alternative out there. As I've said no idea where he actually stands, except vs Vandoorne and even Alonso says he's closer than it seems to to a car problem.
And leave Kimi alone!

Anyway probably should get this thread back to Hamilton or at least the WDC 2018. Kimi to shock all with a resurgence and win it, Vettel retires in a strop! You heard it here first...

I still think Alonso is a top-shelf driver but I don't know how you can say that Lewis Hamilton isn't the #1 guy right now. When you literally win 50% of the races over a 5 year span of time, that has to count for something, doesn't it? Certainly it must count for more than what some fans think Alonso would have accomplished if he were up front.

I think he would as well.

You can say it a thousand times, it still doesn't make it true. F1 is too complicated to just look at the amount of WDC's and wins.

Winning 50% of the races when for at least 60% of the time the only opposition was your team mate? How should that weigh up against the number of times that Alonso has beaten his team mate? Why should it count for more just because Hamilton's car also had the potential - some would say guarantee - of beating all the other cars, too?

Not taking anything away from the fact that Hamilton has performed well, but in a non-spec series winning races doesn't in any way prove a driver is better than another in different machinery.

Hamilton's teammates have been better than Alonso's during that time. I rate Jenson Button but that matchup with him and Alonso was 1-1 anyway (and the car was so bad that it's hard to even take anything away from that). Hamilton's opposition from other teams has been tougher as well these last two years. Lewis is racing against the likes of Vettel, Rosberg, Bottas, Ricciardo, Verstappen and Raikkonen while Alonso is racing against guys like Vandoorne, Ericson, Sainz, Perez, Ocon, etc. Not saying that Alonso is not top-shelf but at some stage, actual events have to matter don't they?

The fact that Hamilton has been dominant for such an extended period of time must matter on some level. It can't always be about "wouldas, couldas and shouldas". Even if you try to compare Hamilton and Alonso directly, the one sample you have is 2007; where Hamilton beat Alonso in his rookie year. I think ignoring or writing off Hamilton's success and instead giving Alonso credit for what you think he could do in a different situation is just not a balanced way of looking at things.

But it is the only way you can actually compare the two.