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PostPosted: Mon Oct 01, 2018 7:45 am 
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mikeyg123 wrote:
sandman1347 wrote:
Junglist wrote:
mikeyg123 wrote:
Junglist wrote:
I wouldn't say it is that unlikely. Only bad luck/brain farts has caused Vettel to not win all of the 4 previous races.


Actually I'm coming round to agreeing. It's still in Sebs hands, just. If he drives at his best for the last 7 races he probably will be champion.


And that is exactly what I think will happen. People are writing Seb of too soon. The man is a 4x champion he will get his head down and as soon as he does, mark my words, he will lead the championship.

Can we get a poll going? I'd be surprised if more people thought he wasn't going to win.

That's a bit too fatalistic for me. The Ferrari is the stronger package but only by a small margin and having 7 consecutive flawless weekends where you don't screw anything up AND don't get unlucky with weather or safety cars is actually unlikely. There is also the possibility that Mercedes will regain the upper hand in development. We shouldn't assume that the matchup will remain static. Certainly there are 1 or 2 races remaining where Mercedes will likely have the better package on the day.

I agree that Vettel has enough time left to regain the lead and win the WDC if he can eliminate unforced errors moving forward. I just think that Hamilton will have a fighting chance to win a lot of races from here on out as well. The Ferrari's advantage isn't so extreme as to make it impossible for Lewis to win unless Ferrari screw something up. Either Lewis or the Mercedes team can make the difference on the day (much like they did in Italy).

Above all else, the margin for error for Ferrari has gotten a bit thin. One more big mistake will put the first nails in their coffin. A DNF for Vettel combined with a Hamilton win would basically put the championship to bed.


He doesn't need that. He needs 5 weekends where he can beat Hamilton out of 7 and to score well in the other two. And that scenario leaves no margin of error to Hamilton. Hamilton is currently favourite but it's a long way from hopeless for Vettel.


When does it become hopeless for Vettel then? Even if Hamiltons Mercedes fail to finish in two out of the remaining 5 Grand Prix, Vettel still has to win both those races, in that unlikely outcome they would be all square.

It might not be hopeless in your view but it is pretty close to hopeless in mine! Off course I might be wrong but I don't think Vettel is holding out much hope.


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PostPosted: Mon Oct 01, 2018 7:50 am 
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If Vettel had a car advantage maybe, but since it's the other way around and Merc has proved that Bottas will be used I find it a zero chance for a Ferrari/Vettel chance, this is signed and sealed


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PostPosted: Mon Oct 01, 2018 12:33 pm 
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AnRs wrote:
If Vettel had a car advantage maybe, but since it's the other way around and Merc has proved that Bottas will be used I find it a zero chance for a Ferrari/Vettel chance, this is signed and sealed


I guess you weren't around in 2007. That was also apparently signed and sealed for Hamilton with only 2 races to go. Vettel's chances are diminishing with every passing race, right now i'd give him maybe a 5-10% chance, but it's not over until the maths say it is.


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PostPosted: Mon Oct 01, 2018 8:23 pm 
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Revisiting my snooker analogy, Vettel now needs to get two snooker to get back into the frame. Out of the remaining races I see more Mercedes friendly circuits that Ferrari friendly circuits.

Merc have Japan, USA and Abu Dhabi where they should be strong. Ferrari have Mexico and Brazil where they could be quickest. And out of that Mexico could see Verstappen win.


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PostPosted: Mon Oct 01, 2018 11:46 pm 
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AnRs wrote:
If Vettel had a car advantage maybe, but since it's the other way around and Merc has proved that Bottas will be used I find it a zero chance for a Ferrari/Vettel chance, this is signed and sealed


Let's not forget, Lewis is where he is not because of a now arguably better car, but because of Seb's multiple mistakes when Seb was in the faster car, and Lewis's pretty much exemplary performance. You can only attribute 7 points to the team orders, what about the other 43?


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PostPosted: Tue Oct 02, 2018 7:43 am 
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Lojik wrote:
AnRs wrote:
If Vettel had a car advantage maybe, but since it's the other way around and Merc has proved that Bottas will be used I find it a zero chance for a Ferrari/Vettel chance, this is signed and sealed


I guess you weren't around in 2007. That was also apparently signed and sealed for Hamilton with only 2 races to go. Vettel's chances are diminishing with every passing race, right now i'd give him maybe a 5-10% chance, but it's not over until the maths say it is.


But Bottas is not Alonso and Mercedes unlike the McLaren of 2007 has its house in order.

There is no way Bottas will hurt Hamilton's chances for the championship. So Vettel will have to do it by himself, but he looks demotivated and demoralised. Also it seems that Mercedes has found a bit of pace so the car advantage which Ferrari enjoyed before but failed to capitalise on, is no longer there.

So he has to do it the hard way and he has to start winning GPs.

Right now I cannot see how it will happen.


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PostPosted: Tue Oct 02, 2018 9:23 am 
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FrusEldar wrote:
Lojik wrote:
AnRs wrote:
If Vettel had a car advantage maybe, but since it's the other way around and Merc has proved that Bottas will be used I find it a zero chance for a Ferrari/Vettel chance, this is signed and sealed


I guess you weren't around in 2007. That was also apparently signed and sealed for Hamilton with only 2 races to go. Vettel's chances are diminishing with every passing race, right now i'd give him maybe a 5-10% chance, but it's not over until the maths say it is.


But Bottas is not Alonso and Mercedes unlike the McLaren of 2007 has its house in order.

There is no way Bottas will hurt Hamilton's chances for the championship. So Vettel will have to do it by himself, but he looks demotivated and demoralised. Also it seems that Mercedes has found a bit of pace so the car advantage which Ferrari enjoyed before but failed to capitalise on, is no longer there.

So he has to do it the hard way and he has to start winning GPs.

Right now I cannot see how it will happen.

So Kimi is going to win it? ;)


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PostPosted: Tue Oct 02, 2018 3:13 pm 
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TedStriker wrote:
AnRs wrote:
If Vettel had a car advantage maybe, but since it's the other way around and Merc has proved that Bottas will be used I find it a zero chance for a Ferrari/Vettel chance, this is signed and sealed


Let's not forget, Lewis is where he is not because of a now arguably better car, but because of Seb's multiple mistakes when Seb was in the faster car, and Lewis's pretty much exemplary performance. You can only attribute 7 points to the team orders, what about the other 43?

I agree. It starts to look a lot like 2017. Ferrari and especially Vettel are in the process of throwing away yet another title. This time last year the points gap was "only" 34 when it is now 50, even when Ferrari have had a relatively faster and more reliable car this year than they had last year. Where it has been coming down to I think is that this is one of Lewis' best seasons while it is one of Vettel's worst.

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PostPosted: Tue Oct 02, 2018 3:35 pm 
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froze wrote:
TedStriker wrote:
AnRs wrote:
If Vettel had a car advantage maybe, but since it's the other way around and Merc has proved that Bottas will be used I find it a zero chance for a Ferrari/Vettel chance, this is signed and sealed


Let's not forget, Lewis is where he is not because of a now arguably better car, but because of Seb's multiple mistakes when Seb was in the faster car, and Lewis's pretty much exemplary performance. You can only attribute 7 points to the team orders, what about the other 43?

I agree. It starts to look a lot like 2017. Ferrari and especially Vettel are in the process of throwing away yet another title. This time last year the points gap was "only" 34 when it is now 50, even when Ferrari have had a relatively faster and more reliable car this year than they had last year. Where it has been coming down to I think is that this is one of Lewis' best seasons while it is one of Vettel's worst.


Very true. Unfortunately these mistakes (by both Vettel and Ferrari's strategy team let's not forget) "robbed" us of a great showdown, in a season that the cars have been the closest they have been in the last few years. Ok, there's still some time for Ferrari to perform a miracle, but the chances look pretty slim


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PostPosted: Wed Oct 03, 2018 10:25 am 
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froze wrote:
I agree. It starts to look a lot like 2017. Ferrari and especially Vettel are in the process of throwing away yet another title. This time last year the points gap was "only" 34 when it is now 50, even when Ferrari have had a relatively faster and more reliable car this year than they had last year. Where it has been coming down to I think is that this is one of Lewis' best seasons while it is one of Vettel's worst.


2017 - Ferrari could have won
2018 - Ferrari should have won


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PostPosted: Wed Oct 03, 2018 10:54 am 
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Lojik wrote:
froze wrote:
I agree. It starts to look a lot like 2017. Ferrari and especially Vettel are in the process of throwing away yet another title. This time last year the points gap was "only" 34 when it is now 50, even when Ferrari have had a relatively faster and more reliable car this year than they had last year. Where it has been coming down to I think is that this is one of Lewis' best seasons while it is one of Vettel's worst.


2017 - Ferrari could have won
2018 - Ferrari should have won


That it even is possible to rule out anything else than Merc domination again with 5 races left makes it not even a little bit silly to call out Ferrari "should" have won.
I strongly believe that when we sum up 2018 it will not matter if you remove Ferrari mistakes, Merc will in the end be to strong.


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PostPosted: Wed Oct 03, 2018 2:39 pm 
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Exediron wrote:
Xink wrote:
Seb will have to be hoping he has at least 1 DNF to have any chance of turning this one round

He needs two, realistically. And Lewis has already had one, don't forget - Seb hasn't had a mechanical DNF yet. The odds say he will, and at that point it's over.

Yes given the recent performance turn around of Mercedes, Vettel needs Hamilton to DNF twice to have a chance.

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PostPosted: Wed Oct 03, 2018 2:43 pm 
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Lojik wrote:
AnRs wrote:
If Vettel had a car advantage maybe, but since it's the other way around and Merc has proved that Bottas will be used I find it a zero chance for a Ferrari/Vettel chance, this is signed and sealed


I guess you weren't around in 2007. That was also apparently signed and sealed for Hamilton with only 2 races to go. Vettel's chances are diminishing with every passing race, right now i'd give him maybe a 5-10% chance, but it's not over until the maths say it is.

Well Hamilton is no longer driving for McLaren, that also makes it less probably that there will be any kind of mess up.

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Wins: Canada 2018, Abu Dhabi 2017
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PostPosted: Wed Oct 03, 2018 2:44 pm 
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Lojik wrote:
froze wrote:
I agree. It starts to look a lot like 2017. Ferrari and especially Vettel are in the process of throwing away yet another title. This time last year the points gap was "only" 34 when it is now 50, even when Ferrari have had a relatively faster and more reliable car this year than they had last year. Where it has been coming down to I think is that this is one of Lewis' best seasons while it is one of Vettel's worst.


2017 - Ferrari could have won
2018 - Ferrari should have won

I think it's too early to call 2018 for sure on that one. Yes, he should be a lot closer to Hamilton than he is and Germany and Monza in particular he threw a lot of points away. But there are still five races to go and Mercedes look to have gained the upper hand recently. Of course, all that could change overnight as it's been almost impossible to predict, but I don't think you can call 2018 as Ferrari's season just yet. He definitely shouldn't be trailing in the way he is, though, that's for sure, and the last few races haven't been his finest


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PostPosted: Wed Oct 03, 2018 2:45 pm 
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Lojik wrote:
froze wrote:
I agree. It starts to look a lot like 2017. Ferrari and especially Vettel are in the process of throwing away yet another title. This time last year the points gap was "only" 34 when it is now 50, even when Ferrari have had a relatively faster and more reliable car this year than they had last year. Where it has been coming down to I think is that this is one of Lewis' best seasons while it is one of Vettel's worst.


2017 - Ferrari could have won
2018 - Ferrari should have won

Yep

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PF1 Pick 10 Competition

2013: 5th Place
2014: Champion
2015: 3rd Place
2016: 4th Place

2017: 9th Place
2018: Currently 3rd

Wins: Canada 2018, Abu Dhabi 2017
Podiums: (6)


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PostPosted: Wed Oct 03, 2018 2:54 pm 
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For the first time I am now seeing it as Hamilton's title, before Singapore with a 30 point lead I saw the Ferrari has being faster and it being difficult for Hamilton to win races.

Now with a 50 point lead Mercedes have found something and Ferrari are no longer faster, Vettel probably needs to win the last 5 races to even have a chance, very unlikely.

_________________
PF1 Pick 10 Competition

2013: 5th Place
2014: Champion
2015: 3rd Place
2016: 4th Place

2017: 9th Place
2018: Currently 3rd

Wins: Canada 2018, Abu Dhabi 2017
Podiums: (6)


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PostPosted: Wed Oct 03, 2018 5:40 pm 
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froze wrote:
TedStriker wrote:
AnRs wrote:
If Vettel had a car advantage maybe, but since it's the other way around and Merc has proved that Bottas will be used I find it a zero chance for a Ferrari/Vettel chance, this is signed and sealed


Let's not forget, Lewis is where he is not because of a now arguably better car, but because of Seb's multiple mistakes when Seb was in the faster car, and Lewis's pretty much exemplary performance. You can only attribute 7 points to the team orders, what about the other 43?

I agree. It starts to look a lot like 2017. Ferrari and especially Vettel are in the process of throwing away yet another title. This time last year the points gap was "only" 34 when it is now 50, even when Ferrari have had a relatively faster and more reliable car this year than they had last year. Where it has been coming down to I think is that this is one of Lewis' best seasons while it is one of Vettel's worst.

I wouldn't say they are in the process of throwing it away, I'd say they already have by not capitalising on having the best car when they did. Now that Mercedes seem to have the upper hand I can't see Vettel making a comeback. If Mercedes' form continues in this manner in the remaining races then I'd probably say that the two cars will have been roughly equal when averaged over the course of the season and that the difference came down to driving and operational errors.

It has been a brilliant season for Hamilton. Rather strange to think that earlier in the season we were all saying that he was underperforming and seemed a bit demotivated. But since the French GP he has probably had the best spell of his career.


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