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 Post subject: Re: Bottas vs Raikkonen
PostPosted: Thu Jul 12, 2018 11:10 am 
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Rockie wrote:
mikeyg123 wrote:
Blake wrote:
Robot wrote:
They are both average drivers, very inconsistent and error prone, kinda hard to predict but maybe Bottas.


Neither are only "average" drivers... Not even in F1.


Kimi probably is now when viewed among his current pears. Probably sits in that middle third.


How exactly?

It's like judging Schumacher based on '10-'12.


Yes. I believe we are discussing how good Bottas and Kimi are now.


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 Post subject: Re: Bottas vs Raikkonen
PostPosted: Thu Jul 12, 2018 11:17 am 
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mikeyg123 wrote:
Rockie wrote:
mikeyg123 wrote:
Blake wrote:
Robot wrote:
They are both average drivers, very inconsistent and error prone, kinda hard to predict but maybe Bottas.


Neither are only "average" drivers... Not even in F1.


Kimi probably is now when viewed among his current pears. Probably sits in that middle third.


How exactly?

It's like judging Schumacher based on '10-'12.


Yes. I believe we are discussing how good Bottas and Kimi are now.


Comparing Bottas and Kimi now means Bottas has lost out already.


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 Post subject: Re: Bottas vs Raikkonen
PostPosted: Thu Jul 12, 2018 11:40 am 
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Rockie wrote:
mikeyg123 wrote:
Blake wrote:
Robot wrote:
They are both average drivers, very inconsistent and error prone, kinda hard to predict but maybe Bottas.


Neither are only "average" drivers... Not even in F1.


Kimi probably is now when viewed among his current pears. Probably sits in that middle third.


How exactly?

It's like judging Schumacher based on '10-'12.


I don't see what's controversial.

Currently, Kimi is not often ranked amongst the top 6-7 drivers of those in F1. He may have been rated higher in the past, and was probably better in the past.

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 Post subject: Re: Bottas vs Raikkonen
PostPosted: Thu Jul 12, 2018 4:04 pm 
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Herb wrote:
Rockie wrote:
mikeyg123 wrote:
Blake wrote:
Robot wrote:
They are both average drivers, very inconsistent and error prone, kinda hard to predict but maybe Bottas.


Neither are only "average" drivers... Not even in F1.


Kimi probably is now when viewed among his current pears. Probably sits in that middle third.


How exactly?

It's like judging Schumacher based on '10-'12.


I don't see what's controversial.

Currently, Kimi is not often ranked amongst the top 6-7 drivers of those in F1. He may have been rated higher in the past, and was probably better in the past.


Where is he ranked then?


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 Post subject: Re: Bottas vs Raikkonen
PostPosted: Thu Jul 12, 2018 4:05 pm 
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Rockie wrote:
Herb wrote:
Rockie wrote:
mikeyg123 wrote:
Blake wrote:

Neither are only "average" drivers... Not even in F1.


Kimi probably is now when viewed among his current pears. Probably sits in that middle third.


How exactly?

It's like judging Schumacher based on '10-'12.


I don't see what's controversial.

Currently, Kimi is not often ranked amongst the top 6-7 drivers of those in F1. He may have been rated higher in the past, and was probably better in the past.


Where is he ranked then?


Where do you think he is ranked?

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 Post subject: Re: Bottas vs Raikkonen
PostPosted: Thu Jul 12, 2018 6:17 pm 
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Rockie wrote:

Where is he ranked then?


Probably in the middle third 8-15 based on current ability. Hence him being average among his peers.


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 Post subject: Re: Bottas vs Raikkonen
PostPosted: Thu Jul 12, 2018 6:41 pm 
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mikeyg123 wrote:
Rockie wrote:

Where is he ranked then?

Probably in the middle third 8-15 based on current ability. Hence him being average among his peers.

I would rate him 8-14th, based on fairly broad groupings:

Group 1 -- Definitely better than Kimi (as of 2018): Hamilton, Alonso, Vettel, Verstappen, Ricciardo
Group 2 -- Very likely better than Kimi (as of 2018): Ocon, Leclerc
Group 3 -- Within the same range as Kimi (as of 2018): Raikkonen, Bottas, Perez, Hulk, Vandoorne, Sainz, Gasly
Group 4 -- Probably worse than Kimi (as of 2018): Magnussen, Grosjean, Ericsson, Hartley
Group 5 -- A lot worse than Kimi (as of 2018): Stroll, Sirotkin

Disclaimer: these are completely subjective, and typed off the top of my head based on current impression. I'm just demonstrating that I would indeed place Kimi as roughly average on the current grid, based on current ability. That's not at all the same thing as saying I believe Kimi is average in all areas (he's not), or that his total career is average (it isn't).

But right now, based on pace, yeah. About average.

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 Post subject: Re: Bottas vs Raikkonen
PostPosted: Thu Jul 19, 2018 3:55 am 
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Exediron wrote:
mikeyg123 wrote:
Rockie wrote:

Where is he ranked then?

Probably in the middle third 8-15 based on current ability. Hence him being average among his peers.

I would rate him 8-14th, based on fairly broad groupings:

Group 1 -- Definitely better than Kimi (as of 2018): Hamilton, Alonso, Vettel, Verstappen, Ricciardo
Group 2 -- Very likely better than Kimi (as of 2018): Ocon, Leclerc
Group 3 -- Within the same range as Kimi (as of 2018): Raikkonen, Bottas, Perez, Hulk, Vandoorne, Sainz, Gasly
Group 4 -- Probably worse than Kimi (as of 2018): Magnussen, Grosjean, Ericsson, Hartley
Group 5 -- A lot worse than Kimi (as of 2018): Stroll, Sirotkin

Disclaimer: these are completely subjective, and typed off the top of my head based on current impression. I'm just demonstrating that I would indeed place Kimi as roughly average on the current grid, based on current ability. That's not at all the same thing as saying I believe Kimi is average in all areas (he's not), or that his total career is average (it isn't).

But right now, based on pace, yeah. About average.


Have you been watching the 2018 season?

The world champion is third in the driver's 2018 championship with two retirements this season. How is that average? Only Lewis has more podiums and Vettel an equal amount. And there was no lady luck smiling on Kimi this season...


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 Post subject: Re: Bottas vs Raikkonen
PostPosted: Thu Jul 19, 2018 4:54 am 
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greatestF1mindever wrote:
Exediron wrote:
mikeyg123 wrote:
Rockie wrote:

Where is he ranked then?

Probably in the middle third 8-15 based on current ability. Hence him being average among his peers.

I would rate him 8-14th, based on fairly broad groupings:

Group 1 -- Definitely better than Kimi (as of 2018): Hamilton, Alonso, Vettel, Verstappen, Ricciardo
Group 2 -- Very likely better than Kimi (as of 2018): Ocon, Leclerc
Group 3 -- Within the same range as Kimi (as of 2018): Raikkonen, Bottas, Perez, Hulk, Vandoorne, Sainz, Gasly
Group 4 -- Probably worse than Kimi (as of 2018): Magnussen, Grosjean, Ericsson, Hartley
Group 5 -- A lot worse than Kimi (as of 2018): Stroll, Sirotkin

Disclaimer: these are completely subjective, and typed off the top of my head based on current impression. I'm just demonstrating that I would indeed place Kimi as roughly average on the current grid, based on current ability. That's not at all the same thing as saying I believe Kimi is average in all areas (he's not), or that his total career is average (it isn't).

But right now, based on pace, yeah. About average.

Have you been watching the 2018 season?

The world champion is third in the driver's 2018 championship with two retirements this season. How is that average? Only Lewis has more podiums and Vettel an equal amount. And there was no lady luck smiling on Kimi this season...

Well, I don't know, that wouldn't have anything to do with the fact that he's in one of four top cars? He's effectively third out of four, and Bottas behind him has had pretty poor luck.

Championship standing and podiums are dependent on the car, almost one hundred percent. Put the drivers I ranked above Kimi in that car, and I am confident they would have as many podiums. Put the drivers I ranked the same as him, and I think they'd have roughly the same results, possibly higher or lower.

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 Post subject: Re: Bottas vs Raikkonen
PostPosted: Thu Jul 19, 2018 5:40 am 
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I'd say both have been driving well this year, and both have had their share of bad luck. I think it would be close between them. I'd give a slight edge at the moment to Bottas for generally better qualifying pace, but I could easily see it going either way. +/- five points, flip a coin.

I also agree with the others who have said that this wouldn't even be a question comparing Raikkonen-ten-years-ago with Bottas-of-the-present, but even were it a question, it would be a different one.

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 Post subject: Re: Bottas vs Raikkonen
PostPosted: Thu Jul 19, 2018 5:40 am 
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greatestF1mindever wrote:
Exediron wrote:
mikeyg123 wrote:
Rockie wrote:

Where is he ranked then?

Probably in the middle third 8-15 based on current ability. Hence him being average among his peers.

I would rate him 8-14th, based on fairly broad groupings:

Group 1 -- Definitely better than Kimi (as of 2018): Hamilton, Alonso, Vettel, Verstappen, Ricciardo
Group 2 -- Very likely better than Kimi (as of 2018): Ocon, Leclerc
Group 3 -- Within the same range as Kimi (as of 2018): Raikkonen, Bottas, Perez, Hulk, Vandoorne, Sainz, Gasly
Group 4 -- Probably worse than Kimi (as of 2018): Magnussen, Grosjean, Ericsson, Hartley
Group 5 -- A lot worse than Kimi (as of 2018): Stroll, Sirotkin

Disclaimer: these are completely subjective, and typed off the top of my head based on current impression. I'm just demonstrating that I would indeed place Kimi as roughly average on the current grid, based on current ability. That's not at all the same thing as saying I believe Kimi is average in all areas (he's not), or that his total career is average (it isn't).

But right now, based on pace, yeah. About average.


Have you been watching the 2018 season?

The world champion is third in the driver's 2018 championship with two retirements this season. How is that average? Only Lewis has more podiums and Vettel an equal amount. And there was no lady luck smiling on Kimi this season...


How can you state the bit in bold after asking someone of having watched this season? For pretty much every podium he obtained except Australia, he benefited from either SC's bringing him back in the race, strategic screw-ups by other teams, mechanical issues for other drivers or other drivers ahead being crashed out.

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 Post subject: Re: Bottas vs Raikkonen
PostPosted: Thu Jul 19, 2018 10:22 am 
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Remmirath wrote:
I'd say both have been driving well this year, and both have had their share of bad luck. I think it would be close between them. I'd give a slight edge at the moment to Bottas for generally better qualifying pace, but I could easily see it going either way. +/- five points, flip a coin.

I also agree with the others who have said that this wouldn't even be a question comparing Raikkonen-ten-years-ago with Bottas-of-the-present, but even were it a question, it would be a different one.

Well, kimi has had lucky cirsumstances in terms of getting a podium several times this year. Bottas hasn't really had that. So I think that if they had had equal luck, Bottas would probably be a fair way ahaed. Kimi retired in Bahrain and Spain. I'd say he lost up to 30 points in these two races if I'm being generous. But the level of good fortune he's had compared to Bottas is pretty big.

In China, his strategy was a bit unfair towards him, but he got overtaken by a Red Bull at the start anyway. Later on, he was in 6th. With the circumstances that happened with Red Bull at the end, I think 5th or 6th was the highest he would likely finish. But Vettel gets damaged and knocked down by Verstappen. Kimi gains 3 places. Finished 3rd. That has to be said it was a bit lucky. While Bottas looked to have done enough work himself by getting past Kimi at the start and then putting in a mighty outlap and getting past vettel. Then Bottas's bad luck hit him and he lost as many points as kimi likely gained.

In Baku, Kimi gains 2 places when the Red Bulls crash. Near the end of the race Kimi gets past Vettel who messes his race up. Then gets past Bottas with a puncture. Basically, Kimi gained about 10 points due to good fortune. While Bottas lost 25. While admittedly, the win will have been a little lucky for Bottas as 2nd was looking more likely if Vettel didn't mess up.

Spain wasn't a great race for Bottas. All he needes was a better start and slightly better defending into the first corner then he may have managed to keep Vettel behind. Kimi I'd say most likely will have been 4th here if not for his retirement.

In France Bottas gets knocked back and looses out on an extra 12 points as 2nd will have been very likely. While Kimi has another weak qualifying in 6th. He gains positions on Vettel and Bottas. Then Ricciardo later on has a problem which was slowing him down. And Kimi was easily able to get him too. Without Vettel's, Bottas's race getting messed up and Ricciardo's issue, I think it will have been 6th again for Kimi. Gained another podium and an extra 7 points due to good fortune.

I'll give Kimi some credit for having a great fight over the first lap of Austria. He looked good there. But Verstappen soon got past (although some thing in an unfair way) I think I partially agree. But Ricciardo also got past him cleanly later on. Bottas had retired, then Hamilton, then Ricciardo. Despite Kimi losing places himself, he still finished higher than he started. Was also possibly aided a bit by Vettel's mistake in qualifying resulting in a grid penalty. Again, would have very likely been several places lower. 5th and if not for Vettels mistake in qualifying probably 6th. So lets say he probably gained about 8 points.

Then In the latest race (Britain). Bottas made a much better start, and then kimi just couldn't get past verstappen. Bottas looked much better than Kimi here. And then Bottas's strategy fell against him. If Mercedes decided to pit, Bottas will have certainly been 2nd or at worst 3rd. Kimi gained another position and although it was a proper overtake, he certainly didn't deserve that podium over Bottas.




So, as strange as this may sound, I think Kimi has easily gained as many points due to good fortune rather than good racing as he's lost due to bad luck. Like I said earlier, I'd say a maximum of 30 points is probably what he's lost down to retirements. And when I add up what I think he's gained due to things going wrong for others, it adds up to just over 30.
Where as Bottas's situation is rather different. He likely lost 7 in China, 25 in Baku, 12 in France and 18 in Austria (that is if Mercedes didn't do to Bottas what they did to Hamilton. I guess it could then have potentially been even more points lost or maybe less too. Then if things hadn't gone as they did in Britain, he likely would had an extra 3 or even 6 points. Lets say I've been a little too generous towards Bottas with the amount of points he's missed out on and just say around 50. That is still a lot more than Kimi and can anyone really think what good fortune Bottas has had to make up for any of the points he's missed out on? As I've explained, Kimi has definitely had some of this. Not sure if Bottas does. The only sign of good luck was the safety car helping him in Baku for a win until the worst luck of the season got to him.

I honestly think that a more realistic gap between them this year if things had been equal could well be over 60 or 70 points.



I may sound like I'm being harsh on Kimi here. But that said, I still think he's easily good enough for F1, and even still good enough for Ferrari. Even though I think lost of his results have looked better than his performances, the fact is, he's getting points for the team reasonably well when Vettel has had issues. But at this stage, I don't think Bottas is just a little better. He's now a lot better.


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 Post subject: Re: Bottas vs Raikkonen
PostPosted: Thu Jul 19, 2018 11:34 am 
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greatestF1mindever wrote:
Exediron wrote:
mikeyg123 wrote:
Rockie wrote:

Where is he ranked then?

Probably in the middle third 8-15 based on current ability. Hence him being average among his peers.

I would rate him 8-14th, based on fairly broad groupings:

Group 1 -- Definitely better than Kimi (as of 2018): Hamilton, Alonso, Vettel, Verstappen, Ricciardo
Group 2 -- Very likely better than Kimi (as of 2018): Ocon, Leclerc
Group 3 -- Within the same range as Kimi (as of 2018): Raikkonen, Bottas, Perez, Hulk, Vandoorne, Sainz, Gasly
Group 4 -- Probably worse than Kimi (as of 2018): Magnussen, Grosjean, Ericsson, Hartley
Group 5 -- A lot worse than Kimi (as of 2018): Stroll, Sirotkin

Disclaimer: these are completely subjective, and typed off the top of my head based on current impression. I'm just demonstrating that I would indeed place Kimi as roughly average on the current grid, based on current ability. That's not at all the same thing as saying I believe Kimi is average in all areas (he's not), or that his total career is average (it isn't).

But right now, based on pace, yeah. About average.


Have you been watching the 2018 season?

The world champion is third in the driver's 2018 championship with two retirements this season. How is that average? Only Lewis has more podiums and Vettel an equal amount. And there was no lady luck smiling on Kimi this season...

The reality is though is that he has a race winning car but not once has looked like winning a race unlike Bottas

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 Post subject: Re: Bottas vs Raikkonen
PostPosted: Thu Jul 19, 2018 12:38 pm 
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pokerman wrote:
greatestF1mindever wrote:
Exediron wrote:
mikeyg123 wrote:
Rockie wrote:

Where is he ranked then?

Probably in the middle third 8-15 based on current ability. Hence him being average among his peers.

I would rate him 8-14th, based on fairly broad groupings:

Group 1 -- Definitely better than Kimi (as of 2018): Hamilton, Alonso, Vettel, Verstappen, Ricciardo
Group 2 -- Very likely better than Kimi (as of 2018): Ocon, Leclerc
Group 3 -- Within the same range as Kimi (as of 2018): Raikkonen, Bottas, Perez, Hulk, Vandoorne, Sainz, Gasly
Group 4 -- Probably worse than Kimi (as of 2018): Magnussen, Grosjean, Ericsson, Hartley
Group 5 -- A lot worse than Kimi (as of 2018): Stroll, Sirotkin

Disclaimer: these are completely subjective, and typed off the top of my head based on current impression. I'm just demonstrating that I would indeed place Kimi as roughly average on the current grid, based on current ability. That's not at all the same thing as saying I believe Kimi is average in all areas (he's not), or that his total career is average (it isn't).

But right now, based on pace, yeah. About average.


Have you been watching the 2018 season?

The world champion is third in the driver's 2018 championship with two retirements this season. How is that average? Only Lewis has more podiums and Vettel an equal amount. And there was no lady luck smiling on Kimi this season...

The reality is though is that he has a race winning car but not once has looked like winning a race unlike Bottas


Ignoring the reality that Bottas has lucked into his race winning positions as well.


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 Post subject: Re: Bottas vs Raikkonen
PostPosted: Thu Jul 19, 2018 12:48 pm 
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Rockie wrote:
pokerman wrote:
greatestF1mindever wrote:
Exediron wrote:
mikeyg123 wrote:
Probably in the middle third 8-15 based on current ability. Hence him being average among his peers.

I would rate him 8-14th, based on fairly broad groupings:

Group 1 -- Definitely better than Kimi (as of 2018): Hamilton, Alonso, Vettel, Verstappen, Ricciardo
Group 2 -- Very likely better than Kimi (as of 2018): Ocon, Leclerc
Group 3 -- Within the same range as Kimi (as of 2018): Raikkonen, Bottas, Perez, Hulk, Vandoorne, Sainz, Gasly
Group 4 -- Probably worse than Kimi (as of 2018): Magnussen, Grosjean, Ericsson, Hartley
Group 5 -- A lot worse than Kimi (as of 2018): Stroll, Sirotkin

Disclaimer: these are completely subjective, and typed off the top of my head based on current impression. I'm just demonstrating that I would indeed place Kimi as roughly average on the current grid, based on current ability. That's not at all the same thing as saying I believe Kimi is average in all areas (he's not), or that his total career is average (it isn't).

But right now, based on pace, yeah. About average.


Have you been watching the 2018 season?

The world champion is third in the driver's 2018 championship with two retirements this season. How is that average? Only Lewis has more podiums and Vettel an equal amount. And there was no lady luck smiling on Kimi this season...

The reality is though is that he has a race winning car but not once has looked like winning a race unlike Bottas


Ignoring the reality that Bottas has lucked into his race winning positions as well.

Like being able to undercut Vettel for the lead of the race before having his race ruined by a SC?

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 Post subject: Re: Bottas vs Raikkonen
PostPosted: Thu Jul 19, 2018 12:49 pm 
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Rockie wrote:
pokerman wrote:
greatestF1mindever wrote:
Exediron wrote:
mikeyg123 wrote:
Probably in the middle third 8-15 based on current ability. Hence him being average among his peers.

I would rate him 8-14th, based on fairly broad groupings:

Group 1 -- Definitely better than Kimi (as of 2018): Hamilton, Alonso, Vettel, Verstappen, Ricciardo
Group 2 -- Very likely better than Kimi (as of 2018): Ocon, Leclerc
Group 3 -- Within the same range as Kimi (as of 2018): Raikkonen, Bottas, Perez, Hulk, Vandoorne, Sainz, Gasly
Group 4 -- Probably worse than Kimi (as of 2018): Magnussen, Grosjean, Ericsson, Hartley
Group 5 -- A lot worse than Kimi (as of 2018): Stroll, Sirotkin

Disclaimer: these are completely subjective, and typed off the top of my head based on current impression. I'm just demonstrating that I would indeed place Kimi as roughly average on the current grid, based on current ability. That's not at all the same thing as saying I believe Kimi is average in all areas (he's not), or that his total career is average (it isn't).

But right now, based on pace, yeah. About average.


Have you been watching the 2018 season?

The world champion is third in the driver's 2018 championship with two retirements this season. How is that average? Only Lewis has more podiums and Vettel an equal amount. And there was no lady luck smiling on Kimi this season...

The reality is though is that he has a race winning car but not once has looked like winning a race unlike Bottas


Ignoring the reality that Bottas has lucked into his race winning positions as well.

To be fair though. Bottas did what he needed to in China. He kept really close to Vettel. Then when he pitted, he was over 7 tenths quicker in just 1 sector alone. That along with one or to
two small mistakes form Vetter during his lap before he boxed. Vettel also braked to the pit lane speed quite a bit before he needed to. That was a win I think Bottas deserved full credit for. He may have been lucky in Baku, but he made the most of his restart. Vettel messed up. These would have been two wins were deserved IMO.


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 Post subject: Re: Bottas vs Raikkonen
PostPosted: Thu Jul 19, 2018 1:27 pm 
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At times Bottas seemed at par to Hamilton either during qualy or race (ofcourse he's had loads of bad luck), does this mean that Bottas is really good or all the difference in performance is due to Mercedes car? I feel it's the latter though.

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 Post subject: Re: Bottas vs Raikkonen
PostPosted: Thu Jul 19, 2018 1:49 pm 
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UnlikeUday wrote:
At times Bottas seemed at par to Hamilton either during qualy or race (ofcourse he's had loads of bad luck), does this mean that Bottas is really good or all the difference in performance is due to Mercedes car? I feel it's the latter though.

I'm not sure what you are getting at here. What of Bottas's performance is due to the Mercedes car? Hasn't hamilton had the same car? Then even Ferrari I'd say have looked on par with Mercedes or better in at least half the races this season. So Bottas has had a bit of a challenge against him to look good. I don't think it's all down to the car. I think Hamilton has been slightly under performing by his own standards at times this year, but Bottas is a fair bit better than he was last year and he hasn't had any races where he was well off the pace.


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 Post subject: Re: Bottas vs Raikkonen
PostPosted: Thu Jul 19, 2018 6:36 pm 
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pokerman wrote:
Rockie wrote:

Ignoring the reality that Bottas has lucked into his race winning positions as well.

Like being able to undercut Vettel for the lead of the race before having his race ruined by a SC?


A miscalculation by Ferrari caused that!


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 Post subject: Re: Bottas vs Raikkonen
PostPosted: Thu Jul 19, 2018 6:40 pm 
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TheGiantHogweed wrote:
Rockie wrote:

Ignoring the reality that Bottas has lucked into his race winning positions as well.

To be fair though. Bottas did what he needed to in China. He kept really close to Vettel. Then when he pitted, he was over 7 tenths quicker in just 1 sector alone. That along with one or to
two small mistakes form Vetter during his lap before he boxed. Vettel also braked to the pit lane speed quite a bit before he needed to. That was a win I think Bottas deserved full credit for. He may have been lucky in Baku, but he made the most of his restart. Vettel messed up. These would have been two wins were deserved IMO.


In China it was a miscalculation by Ferrari.

In Baku he had no hope till the safety car came out as he had not been in the pit, similar to Vettel in Australia.


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 Post subject: Re: Bottas vs Raikkonen
PostPosted: Thu Jul 19, 2018 7:38 pm 
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Rockie wrote:
TheGiantHogweed wrote:
Rockie wrote:

Ignoring the reality that Bottas has lucked into his race winning positions as well.

To be fair though. Bottas did what he needed to in China. He kept really close to Vettel. Then when he pitted, he was over 7 tenths quicker in just 1 sector alone. That along with one or to
two small mistakes form Vetter during his lap before he boxed. Vettel also braked to the pit lane speed quite a bit before he needed to. That was a win I think Bottas deserved full credit for. He may have been lucky in Baku, but he made the most of his restart. Vettel messed up. These would have been two wins were deserved IMO.


In China it was a miscalculation by Ferrari.

In Baku he had no hope till the safety car came out as he had not been in the pit, similar to Vettel in Australia.



Really? Bottas was over over 3 seconds behind Vettel before he pitted. That was a reasonable gap to pit Vettel the following lap. Bottas just did a brilliant job on his outlap. And Ferrari will have only been able to find out what his first sector was as Bottas completed his second and 3rd sector while Vettel was pitting. If they had pitted Vettel any later, it will have been 100% certain Bottas will have jumped him. The other fact is, Vettel had a messy lap before he pitted. Making a mistake and going wide in a couple of corners as well as slowing down to the pit lane speed a little earlier than he needed to. If he hadn't done any of this and pushed much harder when Bottas pitted, he could well have stayed ahead. Bottas just did a better job at the stage he needed to that race and deserved that win.

Then even in Baku, while he probably wouldn't have won without the safety car, Vettel had the option of an easy overtake on Bottas on the longest straight on any track this year after the restart, but he blew it. With the circumstances there were, again I don't see why Bottas wouldn't have deserved that win. When Vettel was putting pressure on him near the end, Vettel messed it up and Bottas kept it clean. Even though it wasn't vettel's fault that he was in this position, it was his fault that he messed things up much further.


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 Post subject: Re: Bottas vs Raikkonen
PostPosted: Fri Jul 20, 2018 12:37 am 
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TheGiantHogweed wrote:
Rockie wrote:
TheGiantHogweed wrote:
Rockie wrote:

Ignoring the reality that Bottas has lucked into his race winning positions as well.

To be fair though. Bottas did what he needed to in China. He kept really close to Vettel. Then when he pitted, he was over 7 tenths quicker in just 1 sector alone. That along with one or to
two small mistakes form Vetter during his lap before he boxed. Vettel also braked to the pit lane speed quite a bit before he needed to. That was a win I think Bottas deserved full credit for. He may have been lucky in Baku, but he made the most of his restart. Vettel messed up. These would have been two wins were deserved IMO.


In China it was a miscalculation by Ferrari.

In Baku he had no hope till the safety car came out as he had not been in the pit, similar to Vettel in Australia.



Really? Bottas was over over 3 seconds behind Vettel before he pitted. That was a reasonable gap to pit Vettel the following lap. Bottas just did a brilliant job on his outlap. And Ferrari will have only been able to find out what his first sector was as Bottas completed his second and 3rd sector while Vettel was pitting. If they had pitted Vettel any later, it will have been 100% certain Bottas will have jumped him. The other fact is, Vettel had a messy lap before he pitted. Making a mistake and going wide in a couple of corners as well as slowing down to the pit lane speed a little earlier than he needed to. If he hadn't done any of this and pushed much harder when Bottas pitted, he could well have stayed ahead. Bottas just did a better job at the stage he needed to that race and deserved that win.

Then even in Baku, while he probably wouldn't have won without the safety car, Vettel had the option of an easy overtake on Bottas on the longest straight on any track this year after the restart, but he blew it. With the circumstances there were, again I don't see why Bottas wouldn't have deserved that win. When Vettel was putting pressure on him near the end, Vettel messed it up and Bottas kept it clean. Even though it wasn't vettel's fault that he was in this position, it was his fault that he messed things up much further.


Maybe you need to understand what miscalculation is, if the delta was ok, there's no way he was getting past no matter how brilliant his out lap is.
Not seeing how much the new tyre is worth in lap time is the miscalculation by Ferrari.

What Vettel did or didn't do after the safety car restart had no bearing on Bottas lucking into the lead of the race, how is that difficult to understand?
I'm sure you thought Vettel deserved the win at Melbourne as well.

No one is arguing about Vettel messing up his restart.

The highlighted part is one of two options either you can't recollect what happened or you didn't watch the Baku race.


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 Post subject: Re: Bottas vs Raikkonen
PostPosted: Fri Jul 20, 2018 12:43 am 
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Rockie wrote:
pokerman wrote:
Rockie wrote:

Ignoring the reality that Bottas has lucked into his race winning positions as well.

Like being able to undercut Vettel for the lead of the race before having his race ruined by a SC?


A miscalculation by Ferrari caused that!

What miscalculation was that, the fact that Bottas was catching Vettel so they had to pit Vettel for fear of the undercut but still got undercut, that sort of gives no credit to Bottas.

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 Post subject: Re: Bottas vs Raikkonen
PostPosted: Fri Jul 20, 2018 12:46 am 
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pokerman wrote:
Rockie wrote:
pokerman wrote:
Rockie wrote:

Ignoring the reality that Bottas has lucked into his race winning positions as well.

Like being able to undercut Vettel for the lead of the race before having his race ruined by a SC?


A miscalculation by Ferrari caused that!

What miscalculation was that, the fact that Bottas was catching Vettel so they had to pit Vettel for fear of the undercut but still got undercut, that sort of gives no credit to Bottas.


Miscalculation ; an error or misjudgement.

Allowing Bottas to undercut them (Ferrari) is the error.


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 Post subject: Re: Bottas vs Raikkonen
PostPosted: Fri Jul 20, 2018 12:48 am 
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Rockie wrote:
pokerman wrote:
Rockie wrote:
pokerman wrote:
Rockie wrote:

Ignoring the reality that Bottas has lucked into his race winning positions as well.

Like being able to undercut Vettel for the lead of the race before having his race ruined by a SC?


A miscalculation by Ferrari caused that!

What miscalculation was that, the fact that Bottas was catching Vettel so they had to pit Vettel for fear of the undercut but still got undercut, that sort of gives no credit to Bottas.


Miscalculation ; an error or misjudgement.

Allowing Bottas to undercut them (Ferrari) is the error.

Still the error was made because of the pressure from Bottas, why the need to discredit Bottas?

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 Post subject: Re: Bottas vs Raikkonen
PostPosted: Fri Jul 20, 2018 7:14 am 
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Rockie wrote:
TheGiantHogweed wrote:
Rockie wrote:
TheGiantHogweed wrote:
Rockie wrote:

Ignoring the reality that Bottas has lucked into his race winning positions as well.

To be fair though. Bottas did what he needed to in China. He kept really close to Vettel. Then when he pitted, he was over 7 tenths quicker in just 1 sector alone. That along with one or to
two small mistakes form Vetter during his lap before he boxed. Vettel also braked to the pit lane speed quite a bit before he needed to. That was a win I think Bottas deserved full credit for. He may have been lucky in Baku, but he made the most of his restart. Vettel messed up. These would have been two wins were deserved IMO.


In China it was a miscalculation by Ferrari.

In Baku he had no hope till the safety car came out as he had not been in the pit, similar to Vettel in Australia.



Really? Bottas was over over 3 seconds behind Vettel before he pitted. That was a reasonable gap to pit Vettel the following lap. Bottas just did a brilliant job on his outlap. And Ferrari will have only been able to find out what his first sector was as Bottas completed his second and 3rd sector while Vettel was pitting. If they had pitted Vettel any later, it will have been 100% certain Bottas will have jumped him. The other fact is, Vettel had a messy lap before he pitted. Making a mistake and going wide in a couple of corners as well as slowing down to the pit lane speed a little earlier than he needed to. If he hadn't done any of this and pushed much harder when Bottas pitted, he could well have stayed ahead. Bottas just did a better job at the stage he needed to that race and deserved that win.

Then even in Baku, while he probably wouldn't have won without the safety car, Vettel had the option of an easy overtake on Bottas on the longest straight on any track this year after the restart, but he blew it. With the circumstances there were, again I don't see why Bottas wouldn't have deserved that win. When Vettel was putting pressure on him near the end, Vettel messed it up and Bottas kept it clean. Even though it wasn't vettel's fault that he was in this position, it was his fault that he messed things up much further.


Maybe you need to understand what miscalculation is, if the delta was ok, there's no way he was getting past no matter how brilliant his out lap is.
Not seeing how much the new tyre is worth in lap time is the miscalculation by Ferrari.

What Vettel did or didn't do after the safety car restart had no bearing on Bottas lucking into the lead of the race, how is that difficult to understand?
I'm sure you thought Vettel deserved the win at Melbourne as well.

No one is arguing about Vettel messing up his restart.

The highlighted part is one of two options either you can't recollect what happened or you didn't watch the Baku race.

The part you have highlighted, i just can't understand. I did watch the race. I recorded the race, I have watched the last few laps countless times. On the start of lap 47, and the start of 48, due to the circumstances, it is right that Bottas was a little lucky to pit when he did. But on the restart, Vettel did have an easy chance to get past Bottas. Bottas didn't even risk trying to defend probably due to the speed advantage Vettel had over him with DRS (I was corrected here. Not sure why I thought they had DRS at restarts. Just going blank. But given the length of the straight and the slip stream effect, that still will have made it easy for Vettel). Vettel blew his chances by locking up. And this is one reason why I think Bottas deserved the win. Vettel made a big mistake. We can't say oh it's the safety cars fault that mistake happened. I know it is almost certain Vettel would have won, but due to Vettel's mistake and Bottas keeping his restart clean despite huge pressure from behind, I think he deserves credit for his win. You seem to be in the minority implying pretty much no credit is due towards Bottas.

Australia was rather different. It did look pretty clear Hamilton would win and Kimi would come 2nd with Vettel 3rd. While in Baku, Bottas was basically an entire pit stop time length ahead of Hamilton before he had pitted for a lot of the race. So without that, 2nd will have been far more likely than 3rd. Especially as he will have been on better tyres at the end. Without the circumstances Vettel had, I can't see him being higher than 3rd. I see that as being more lucky than Bottas would have been in Baku. Anyway, given how much criticism you seem to be giving perople who praise Bottas for baku, I guess you were happy when he lost the position he lucked into? :? If any drivers were lucky that day, it was Kimi for gaining 4 places and a 2nd place due to retirements and Hamilton getting a win from a likely 3rd. Even without the retirement, Bottas didn't really gain that much in terms of positions compared to others that day.9 on the drivers of the day page, he got 38 votes vs for Vettel. I'm certain Vettel would have got significantly more votes than he did if not for his mistake. And I think as I said, it looks most respect Bottas's drive more than you do.

I guess we shouldn't take this much further as I very rarely see you say much positive about Bottas.While plenty of other people on this forum who didn't think much of his performance last season seem to have changed their mind this season. Even some who are not a fan of his.


Last edited by TheGiantHogweed on Fri Jul 20, 2018 7:54 am, edited 1 time in total.

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 Post subject: Re: Bottas vs Raikkonen
PostPosted: Fri Jul 20, 2018 7:21 am 
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TheGiantHogweed wrote:
But on the restart, Vettel did have an easy chance to get past Bottas. Bottas didn't even risk trying to defend probably due to the speed advantage Vettel had over him with DRS.


A restart with DRS? You may have watched it countless times but you probably need one more go...

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 Post subject: Re: Bottas vs Raikkonen
PostPosted: Fri Jul 20, 2018 7:49 am 
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mds wrote:
TheGiantHogweed wrote:
But on the restart, Vettel did have an easy chance to get past Bottas. Bottas didn't even risk trying to defend probably due to the speed advantage Vettel had over him with DRS.


A restart with DRS? You may have watched it countless times but you probably need one more go...

Please accept that I had a blank moment. This will make it seem that I've maybe missed everything, but yes, they never have DRS at restarts. But the longest straight at any circuit on the calender and the slipstream will still have been enough. And generally this year, the Ferrari has been slightly quicker in a straight line than the Mercedes. I may have thought this just because it looked like he had it given that overtaking this year has usually been very hard without it.


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 Post subject: Re: Bottas vs Raikkonen
PostPosted: Fri Jul 20, 2018 9:22 am 
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TheGiantHogweed wrote:
Rockie wrote:

Maybe you need to understand what miscalculation is, if the delta was ok, there's no way he was getting past no matter how brilliant his out lap is.
Not seeing how much the new tyre is worth in lap time is the miscalculation by Ferrari.

What Vettel did or didn't do after the safety car restart had no bearing on Bottas lucking into the lead of the race, how is that difficult to understand?
I'm sure you thought Vettel deserved the win at Melbourne as well.

No one is arguing about Vettel messing up his restart.

The highlighted part is one of two options either you can't recollect what happened or you didn't watch the Baku race.

The part you have highlighted, i just can't understand. I did watch the race. I recorded the race, I have watched the last few laps countless times. On the start of lap 47, and the start of 48, due to the circumstances, it is right that Bottas was a little lucky to pit when he did. But on the restart, Vettel did have an easy chance to get past Bottas. Bottas didn't even risk trying to defend probably due to the speed advantage Vettel had over him with DRS (I was corrected here. Not sure why I thought they had DRS at restarts. Just going blank. But given the length of the straight and the slip stream effect, that still will have made it easy for Vettel). Vettel blew his chances by locking up. And this is one reason why I think Bottas deserved the win. Vettel made a big mistake. We can't say oh it's the safety cars fault that mistake happened. I know it is almost certain Vettel would have won, but due to Vettel's mistake and Bottas keeping his restart clean despite huge pressure from behind, I think he deserves credit for his win. You seem to be in the minority implying pretty much no credit is due towards Bottas.

Australia was rather different. It did look pretty clear Hamilton would win and Kimi would come 2nd with Vettel 3rd. While in Baku, Bottas was basically an entire pit stop time length ahead of Hamilton before he had pitted for a lot of the race. So without that, 2nd will have been far more likely than 3rd. Especially as he will have been on better tyres at the end. Without the circumstances Vettel had, I can't see him being higher than 3rd. I see that as being more lucky than Bottas would have been in Baku. Anyway, given how much criticism you seem to be giving perople who praise Bottas for baku, I guess you were happy when he lost the position he lucked into? :? If any drivers were lucky that day, it was Kimi for gaining 4 places and a 2nd place due to retirements and Hamilton getting a win from a likely 3rd. Even without the retirement, Bottas didn't really gain that much in terms of positions compared to others that day.9 on the drivers of the day page, he got 38 votes vs for Vettel. I'm certain Vettel would have got significantly more votes than he did if not for his mistake. And I think as I said, it looks most respect Bottas's drive more than you do.

I guess we shouldn't take this much further as I very rarely see you say much positive about Bottas.While plenty of other people on this forum who didn't think much of his performance last season seem to have changed their mind this season. Even some who are not a fan of his.


Can't understand what you put together above, but hey like you said it's best to leave it!


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 Post subject: Re: Bottas vs Raikkonen
PostPosted: Fri Jul 20, 2018 4:21 pm 
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Rockie wrote:
pokerman wrote:
Rockie wrote:
pokerman wrote:
Rockie wrote:

Ignoring the reality that Bottas has lucked into his race winning positions as well.

Like being able to undercut Vettel for the lead of the race before having his race ruined by a SC?


A miscalculation by Ferrari caused that!

What miscalculation was that, the fact that Bottas was catching Vettel so they had to pit Vettel for fear of the undercut but still got undercut, that sort of gives no credit to Bottas.


Miscalculation ; an error or misjudgement.

Allowing Bottas to undercut them (Ferrari) is the error.


Vettel wasn't quick enough. That isn't a miscalculation. On lap 15, the gap was 3.8 seconds. On lap 18 as Bottas dived into the pits the gap was 2.9 seconds. Vettel lost nearly 1 second in 3 laps.

Under cut range was 2.5-3.0 seconds if you performed a perfect pit stop, everybody knew this, Vettel and Ferrari let Bottas into range. There is no luck to how Bottas took the lead of that race, it was the definition of racing. His car more tyre left at the end and he used it, Vettel's times had dropped off and were slow 2-3 laps before he pitted.

Ferrari have to extend the first stint as long as possible in order to 1 stop, since Mercedes seems better on its tyres (generally).


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 Post subject: Re: Bottas vs Raikkonen
PostPosted: Fri Jul 20, 2018 6:20 pm 
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I think the key difference between them is that, Bottas still has that fire burning that he needs to prove himself and he is chasing his first championship, while Kimi is just in it because he loves racing, and doesn't need or want to prove anything. In terms of pace, Bottas is usually very close to Hamilton and sometimes manages to beat him. Kimi on the other hand is a usually a bit behind Vettel. It's hard to say who is the better or faster, but having 10 years of age between them, it's not really a fair comparison anyway. Kimi fits in the role he is currently at and so does Valtteri. I think the only thing that potentially separates them, is that Valtteri might still be able to rattle his teammate, while with Kimi I really don't see that happening anymore.

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 Post subject: Re: Bottas vs Raikkonen
PostPosted: Fri Jul 20, 2018 6:54 pm 
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Rockie wrote:
TheGiantHogweed wrote:
Rockie wrote:

Ignoring the reality that Bottas has lucked into his race winning positions as well.

To be fair though. Bottas did what he needed to in China. He kept really close to Vettel. Then when he pitted, he was over 7 tenths quicker in just 1 sector alone. That along with one or to
two small mistakes form Vetter during his lap before he boxed. Vettel also braked to the pit lane speed quite a bit before he needed to. That was a win I think Bottas deserved full credit for. He may have been lucky in Baku, but he made the most of his restart. Vettel messed up. These would have been two wins were deserved IMO.


In China it was a miscalculation by Ferrari.

In Baku he had no hope till the safety car came out as he had not been in the pit, similar to Vettel in Australia.


I do agree with Rockie regarding China, Ferrari did miscalculate the pace between the two compounds which was 2 seconds, I'm sure Vettel said this himself. Bottas did do a stunning lap but Vettel also made a mistake on his in lap and going into the pits, plus 1 second longer in the pits. I wouldn't call it complete luck like Australia or Baku but everything together contributed to Bottas taking the lead and not just a hot lap.

Mercedes have made plenty of mistakes this year.

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 Post subject: Re: Bottas vs Raikkonen
PostPosted: Fri Jul 20, 2018 8:50 pm 
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Johnson wrote:
Rockie wrote:

Miscalculation ; an error or misjudgement.

Allowing Bottas to undercut them (Ferrari) is the error.


Vettel wasn't quick enough. That isn't a miscalculation. On lap 15, the gap was 3.8 seconds. On lap 18 as Bottas dived into the pits the gap was 2.9 seconds. Vettel lost nearly 1 second in 3 laps.

Under cut range was 2.5-3.0 seconds if you performed a perfect pit stop, everybody knew this, Vettel and Ferrari let Bottas into range. There is no luck to how Bottas took the lead of that race, it was the definition of racing. His car more tyre left at the end and he used it, Vettel's times had dropped off and were slow 2-3 laps before he pitted.

Ferrari have to extend the first stint as long as possible in order to 1 stop, since Mercedes seems better on its tyres (generally).


You just need to understand what you have read before you reply.

The highlighted part is the miscalculation.


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 Post subject: Re: Bottas vs Raikkonen
PostPosted: Fri Jul 20, 2018 10:20 pm 
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Or if Vettel looked after his tyres better, no undercut. More than one thing at play in this scenario. If Vettel did not lose nearly a second in the 3 laps before Bottas pitted, no undercut.


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 Post subject: Re: Bottas vs Raikkonen
PostPosted: Fri Jul 20, 2018 10:36 pm 
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Johnson wrote:
Or if Vettel looked after his tyres better, no undercut. More than one thing at play in this scenario. If Vettel did not lose nearly a second in the 3 laps before Bottas pitted, no undercut.


You talking about China?

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 Post subject: Re: Bottas vs Raikkonen
PostPosted: Sat Jul 21, 2018 1:12 am 
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China was Bottas's race. He would have earned it. He undercut Vettel because he was faster at that stage and he never let Vettel get out of reach of the undercut during the whole first stint. Maybe Vettel could have prevented it if his pit stop was slightly quicker but Bottas earned that undercut by putting in the fast laps he needed. To say otherwise is unfair.


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 Post subject: Re: Bottas vs Raikkonen
PostPosted: Sat Jul 21, 2018 1:38 am 
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kleefton wrote:
China was Bottas's race. He would have earned it. He undercut Vettel because he was faster at that stage and he never let Vettel get out of reach of the undercut during the whole first stint. Maybe Vettel could have prevented it if his pit stop was slightly quicker but Bottas earned that undercut by putting in the fast laps he needed. To say otherwise is unfair.


Looking at it like that is disregarding everything else that took place, the difference in tyres was 2 seconds, the pitstop was 1 second without taking into account the errors the time has been made up. Even with all that Bottas only just managed to get in front off Vettel. At that stage of the race Ferrari lost the lead of the race, most race reports I read said the same thing, Ferrari underestimated the undercut effect, I don't think any team expected the difference between used and new tyres to be 2 seconds. Just like Mercedes and Ferrari didn't expect Red bull to get such an advantage by pitting under the SC. Yes Bottas put in a good lap but without the collection of Ferrari/Vettel errors he still wouldn't have been out in front.

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 Post subject: Re: Bottas vs Raikkonen
PostPosted: Sat Jul 21, 2018 7:59 am 
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F1_Ernie wrote:
kleefton wrote:
China was Bottas's race. He would have earned it. He undercut Vettel because he was faster at that stage and he never let Vettel get out of reach of the undercut during the whole first stint. Maybe Vettel could have prevented it if his pit stop was slightly quicker but Bottas earned that undercut by putting in the fast laps he needed. To say otherwise is unfair.


Looking at it like that is disregarding everything else that took place, the difference in tyres was 2 seconds, the pitstop was 1 second without taking into account the errors the time has been made up. Even with all that Bottas only just managed to get in front off Vettel. At that stage of the race Ferrari lost the lead of the race, most race reports I read said the same thing, Ferrari underestimated the undercut effect, I don't think any team expected the difference between used and new tyres to be 2 seconds. Just like Mercedes and Ferrari didn't expect Red bull to get such an advantage by pitting under the SC. Yes Bottas put in a good lap but without the collection of Ferrari/Vettel errors he still wouldn't have been out in front.


He still closed the gap to Vettel towards the end of the stint though. Vettel just couldn't get away from him,; the buffer that he had to Bottas was not a safe one by any means.

All the things you mentioned actually played a part in the undercut too I agree. But are you really going to say that had Bottas won it would have been lucky?


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 Post subject: Re: Bottas vs Raikkonen
PostPosted: Sat Jul 21, 2018 8:46 am 
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F1_Ernie wrote:
kleefton wrote:
China was Bottas's race. He would have earned it. He undercut Vettel because he was faster at that stage and he never let Vettel get out of reach of the undercut during the whole first stint. Maybe Vettel could have prevented it if his pit stop was slightly quicker but Bottas earned that undercut by putting in the fast laps he needed. To say otherwise is unfair.


Looking at it like that is disregarding everything else that took place, the difference in tyres was 2 seconds, the pitstop was 1 second without taking into account the errors the time has been made up. Even with all that Bottas only just managed to get in front off Vettel. At that stage of the race Ferrari lost the lead of the race, most race reports I read said the same thing, Ferrari underestimated the undercut effect, I don't think any team expected the difference between used and new tyres to be 2 seconds. Just like Mercedes and Ferrari didn't expect Red bull to get such an advantage by pitting under the SC. Yes Bottas put in a good lap but without the collection of Ferrari/Vettel errors he still wouldn't have been out in front.


I just can't understand how people cant grasp this!.


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 Post subject: Re: Bottas vs Raikkonen
PostPosted: Sat Jul 21, 2018 9:07 am 
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kleefton wrote:
F1_Ernie wrote:
kleefton wrote:
China was Bottas's race. He would have earned it. He undercut Vettel because he was faster at that stage and he never let Vettel get out of reach of the undercut during the whole first stint. Maybe Vettel could have prevented it if his pit stop was slightly quicker but Bottas earned that undercut by putting in the fast laps he needed. To say otherwise is unfair.


Looking at it like that is disregarding everything else that took place, the difference in tyres was 2 seconds, the pitstop was 1 second without taking into account the errors the time has been made up. Even with all that Bottas only just managed to get in front off Vettel. At that stage of the race Ferrari lost the lead of the race, most race reports I read said the same thing, Ferrari underestimated the undercut effect, I don't think any team expected the difference between used and new tyres to be 2 seconds. Just like Mercedes and Ferrari didn't expect Red bull to get such an advantage by pitting under the SC. Yes Bottas put in a good lap but without the collection of Ferrari/Vettel errors he still wouldn't have been out in front.


He still closed the gap to Vettel towards the end of the stint though. Vettel just couldn't get away from him,; the buffer that he had to Bottas was not a safe one by any means.

All the things you mentioned actually played a part in the undercut too I agree. But are you really going to say that had Bottas won it would have been lucky?


I wouldnt say lucky and some credit does have to go to Bottas but if the race carried on without the SC I would have said Ferrari lost the race win through a miscalculation and a collection of small errors. It wasn't like Baku or Australia when you do luck in. Similar to Mercedes could have pitted Hamilton under the SC but miscalculated the difference in compounds, Mercedes thinking on their feet doesn't suit them, the computer said no.

_________________
PF1 Pick 10 Competition

2016: 24th place
2017: 4th place

Wins: Spain 2016, Canada 2017, Malaysia 2017
Podiums: 2nd Germany 2016, 3rd Mexico 2016


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