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I think they'd be about even at this point but with the Merc on top he'd win the championship in the Merc.

Hard to tell at this point, I certainly think the Ferrari has been better overall to now and a driver putting in a near identical performance to Hamilton would be ahead.

However, I currently make it 9-8 to Ferrari in terms of who had the better car on a given weekend and the momentum is with Mercedes at the moment. Of course you have to factor in that the Mercedes has been a bit less reliable (qualifying in Germany, race in Austria) too but at this point it's possible that the Mercedes will end up being the better car of the season overall, depending how these next few races go. So I'll try to revisit this poll at the end of the season.

Off course not, Vettel would have in Merc been cruising around just like Merc drivers are doing now.

Vettel would have won in the Merc. I think Max would have also.

So basically we are asking which car has been better this season? Well the Mercedes is certainly superior now, and if we assume that this form continues for the rest of the season then I would make it about even between Mercedes and Ferrari when averaged over the course of the year.

Azerbaijan, Germany, Hungary, Italy and Singapore were all winnable for Vettel this year given the car at his disposal. That's not to say Hamilton in the Ferrari would have won them as he's certainly not perfect and does have the occasional race weekend where he struggles with car setup and is off the pace, but he would not have thrown away anywhere near as many points as Vettel has. I believe Hamilton in the Ferrari would be leading the championship at this point but as for how it would end up at the end of the season, I think that is too close to call.

More importantly though, I think Hamilton in the Ferrari would have beaten Vettel in the Mercedes. And I think he would have done last year as well.

Interesting discussion. I feel that quite a lot of Vettel's errors were down to the pressure, today for example looked like a desperate move. I do feel though that in identical cars, Hamilton is superior (although that's not the discussion at hand at the moment). The Merc is just SO very good this year.

Vettel couldn't deliver the results while having the better car, it's funny how people like to forget this or use it to gloss over Vettels poor season. Yes Hamilton has the odd poor weekend but who doesn't? He wouldn't make the same consistent mistakes Vettel has made.

_________________
PF1 Pick 10 Competition

2016: 24th place
2017: 4th place

Wins: Spain 2016, Canada 2017, Malaysia 2017
Podiums: 2nd Germany 2016, 3rd Mexico 2016

In this scenario, I believe that right at this point in the season, Ferrari-Hamilton would be marginally in front of Mercedes-Hamilton, however with the way the car performance has changed recently, i'd be banking on Mercedes-Hamilton powering through to the title in the last 4 races. I just don't see Lewis making the kind of error that Vettel did in Germany, even with the same lack of support from the pitwall.

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PF1 Pick 10 Competition 2018: {Rookie Year}
Final positon: 1st | 3 Podiums | 2 Wins
2018 Pick 10 Champion

It's worth bearing in mind that the Ferrari team has made more suspect strategy calls than the Merecedes team (and the Mercedes team have not exactly been perfect either!). Regardless of which car has been quicker where Vettel has been a bit on the back foot as a result of the team and I'd suggest that some of his errors are a result of trying to make up for that. Assuming the Hamilton would be in the same position I doubt that he would be error-free either. I'd suggest that Hamilton-Merecedes would still beat Hamilton-Ferrari. Whether the margin would be what it is I'm a little less sure of.

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Where I'm going, I don't need roads

A bit harsh to compare possibly Hamiltons best season to maybe Vettels worst.

I think if Vettel had met expectation and his own standard then the gap would be very small at the moment. Germany alone would halve the gap.

From Singapore 2017 to now, approx 25 races has been a disaster for Vettel. He must have had an accident/collision in 1/3 of those races.

Going back to start of 2016 Vettel has made a lot of mistakes for a top level driver. This isn't really a new trend anymore.

Hamilton/Ferrari > Vettel/Mercedes up to this point of the season.

You failed to even properly read the question. The scenario is that there are two Lewis Hamiltons (one for each team). The OP asks who would be in front right now.

I think the answer is that Ferrari Hamilton would still be holding onto his lead but would be very concerned about the last 4 races. The lead would probably be very slim after the last two rounds (both of which saw Mercedes as the car to beat).

The question you assumed that the OP was asking; what if you swapped drivers? That's an easier one to answer. Hamilton would be way out in front in the points right now and probably just trying to hang on until the end. Vettel hasn't had a single mechanical failure on his car and he has had more races with the faster car than Lewis. If we are taking their level of performance from this year, there is no question that Hamilton would be leading right now regardless of which of the two teams he was on. On Ferrari, his lead would probably be bigger but his current form would be worse as Vettel would likely be winning these recent rounds.

It's all just speculation anyway...

Not really. Ferrari gets beat up for Vettel's mistakes. Take Japan for example. Ferrari may have gotten the tire choice wrong to start Q3 but, at the end of the day, they still got Vettel and Kimi one clean run each in Q3 (the same as every other driver in the session). The problem is that their drivers botched the laps.

Mercedes certainly have had their share of times when they screwed things up but Hamilton has often made up for it. For example; they allowed Vettel to jump Lewis in the pits in Russia but Lewis was able to take back the position on track. So one driver makes up for the team's errors while the other exacerbates them. Mercedes dropped the ball with the VSC in Australia and again in Austria; costing Hamilton two likely wins. The team element has not been what people are making it out to be.

Now one area where Mercedes have clearly outclassed Ferrari is development. It's odd because midway through the season, it seemed that Ferrari had absolutely left Mercedes for dead. The performance of their car was awesome but Mercedes have pulled them back now.

Vettel still has more points than Bottas so obviously between the top two teams drivers are still an important part of the equation. Vettel has imploded this year worse than last and that was not a pretty sight either. He is still not a complete driver like Hamilton who has been so since getting over his dodgy 2011 season. Seriously it's not only Kimi that's wasting that Ferrari but Vettel too. Hamilton, Alonso, Ricciardo maybe even the other crash magnet Verstappen could all still have been in contention for the WDC now with the 2018 Ferrari. Roll on Ferrari's younger generation of drivers because these established WDCs are not delivering the goods with the fine equipment they have.

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Kimi: "Come on, get the McLaren out of the way!”

well given that Ferrari/Vettel have made some errors the logical starting point is that a driver not making those errors would be further ahead than now. So really the question is what would the points table look like now without any mishaps. And i think that without any issues Hamilton/Mercedes would still be ahead, but by a much smaller margin. And Hamilton/Mercedes would still take the title

I think that over the last four years, Lewis has gotten into Sebastian's head. If Lewis had won four of the last five in the Ferrari and Seb hadn't seen a championship since 2013 in the Merc, I think that Seb would still be sabotaging himself.

It's been five years since Sebastian won a championship. It's been almost ten years since Ferrari has won a championship. Don't think that they have forgotten how but I am not sure that they are convinced it is still possible.

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Mission WinLater

There is no way the overly dramatic and emotional Hamilton would have preservered even as long as Vettel once it was clear that the Merc was so much stronger. We’ve seen this when Jenson and Nico took the championship lead, when Vettel/RBR dominated and even at the start of this season when the Ferrari seemed to have the stronger package (I do not forget the British GP). So absolutely would have folded up after Monza. Vettel has tried too hard to compensate, which isn’t getting him anywhere...so I am not saying anyone is perfect, just that it is easy to lose sight of the flaws when a driver has the upper hand, all is going well and he has a fierce grip on the title. Anyone in that position would be a happy go lucky fellow and on top of the world.

There has been debate? No there hasn't.... both teams were almost equal and it came down to race specific... Merc dropped off for a bit and now Ferrari have done the same... Like the old days of Mclaren/Ferrari. Mistakes made a big impact because of how tight the field has been. If Merc V Merc made a mistake.. usually... they'd still finish 1-2 except for major failures etc. It was rare for another team to remotely challenge.



I'd agree with this except the final part. In 2016 Merc V Merc they were miles ahead of the field... at times the qualifying pace would make other teams look like a joke... and it was normal for them to finish half a lap down the field.... Max showed otherwise when he came chasing down Bottas.. that's with two incidents and a penalty. This wasn't a pure Merc dominance but more driver related like this season has been for most of the time.



I disagree again with the Merc dominance comment. Also as for extra pressure.. the only two parts will add pressure on to an experienced champion... 1. driving for Ferrari and 2. His own pressure. Which again.. he should have the experience of winning, fighting and being intelligent. He; like Ferrari have made too many mistakes and for once they have a race package capable of winning and it has been quite a number of years since they've had it... (bar last season). The mistakes made should be highly criticised because it is again costing them a championship. Merc are not just winning this another trophy... but Ferrari have lost it...

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I think it would be much closer if Hamilton in a Ferrari Vs Hamilton in a Merc.... Lewis is also used to winning for a team that expects success... would RBR get the same criticisms as Mclaren have faced in recent years from sponsors, pundits and fans? unlikely.

It also reminds me when people criticised Lewis for having such a high profile personal life and even questioned his retirement last year and this year... yet he is here.. winning.. not making costly mistakes.. while Ferrari and Vettel implode.. which frustrates fans who want it to go to the wire. We all know what needs to be said.. it has been said often... Ferrari should have made Vettel number 1 or got another driver in to replace Kimi. He and Ferrari should have avoided mistakes by not playing huge risks..

Vettel having his worst season isn't something that's happened in a vacuum. Being up against Hamilton in a pretty much equal car, is probably the main factor in Vettel having his worst season. The pressure of having to fight Hamilton is what caused all the mistakes.

The same Hamilton who had to put up with ridiculous reliability problems in 2016 compared to his teammate and his engine blowing in Malaysia which swung the championship battle massively into Rosbergs favour, he only won 4 of the last 5 races. Hamilton had to be very mentality strong to put up with what he happened that season.

Why would Hamilton have folded up after Monza? I doubt be would have made the same mistakes as Vettel in Baku, France, Austria and Germany with the overall better car up until Singapore. Then Monza with the way Hamilton is driving he would have likely put the Ferrari on pole and won the race. The reason Vettel was desperate in Monza was through his own driving, the reason he has been desperate since is all through his own driving.

_________________
PF1 Pick 10 Competition

2016: 24th place
2017: 4th place

Wins: Spain 2016, Canada 2017, Malaysia 2017
Podiums: 2nd Germany 2016, 3rd Mexico 2016

If Vettel had driven a perfect weekend in Baku, France, Germany and Japan would that not have made the difference already?

I don't expect any driver to be absolutely perfect every race. Hamilton should have won GB, for example, but for his poor start. And at Spa a mistake from him allowed Vettel to get close enough to mug him. And at the beginning of the year he was somewhat lackluster, too. And let's not forget he was pretty fortunate in Baku and would have had a pretty unremarkable finish there if the seas hadn't parted for him. Nowhere near the amount of points drop Vettel has had of course but I don't think we should just be talking perfect finishes.

Baku was certainly a Vettel mistake and he was clearly too eager. I still think that Germany was a small error with big consequences and not a case of poor driving. It was a perfect storm of conditions and I doubt a repeat would happen if they were to do the race again. Vettel has made mistakes of course and should be doing better than he is, but I think memories are short in F1 and it's not that long ago that many were saying he was the driver of the season.

I think Japan was more Max than Vettel's fault tbh as I think he closed the door way too harshly. Vettel had a gap and I don't think he lost control of the car at any point. Ricciardo does these kind of moves all the time and is feted for it, but at the end of the day they all require a degree of cooperation from the guy being overtaken and clearly Verstappen was in no mood to play nicely. There was absolutely no guarantee that Vettel would have had another opportunity to get passed Max before the stops and we saw from the previous race that Max isn't averse to running a very long first stint. Vettel had to take the opportunities that came to him but unfortunately for him it was Verstappen who was being overtaken.

So yeah I believe that Vettel should be a lot closer to Hamilton than he is, no argument there. But I also think he's been a bit unlucky and I wouldn't put everything down to driver error

I'm scratching my head at the bolded part. Hamilton's bad start at Silverstone cost him 2 positions. Did you miss the part where Raikkonen crashed into him and sent him to the back? He still finished the race in second so to suggest that his start is what cost him the race is dubious. He could still have won that race up to the point where Raikkonen hit him.

And what mistake did he make at Spa? He didn't make a mistake at the start there. He got away just as quickly as Vettel there but he was a sitting duck on the straight. Vettel was by him very early there and with ease. It seems you're embellishing quite a bit here Zoue while making excuses for Vettel.

I think what Zoue means that if he didn't lose the two positions at the start in GB then he wouldn't have been hit by Raikkonen in the first place. His recovery showed that he had the speed to win, so a decent getaway would have won him the race.

How do you explain Vettels 2017? He performed a lot better in a worse car and it was reliability that took it from him not his owns errors. 2017 Vettel would be only slightly behind Hamilton right now.

That's a stretch. You can't blame a driver for being hit by another driver where the other guy is completely at fault. What Zoue seems to be trying to do is make it seem like Hamilton has made the same kinds of mistakes that Vettel has this year (which is patently absurd).

I think you are getting this wrong. The way I read it isn't that he blames Hamilton for being hit by Kimi, that's all on Kimi. But he wouldn't be in the position to be hit by Kimi in the first place if he hadn't had the bad start. It makes perfect sense, a clear getaway would keep him clear of Kimi. It doesn't mean Hamilton is at fault for the accident.

But Zoue can probably shed some light into what he meant!

Yeah he had a poor start which cost him a couple of places, whereas he should have led from pole and remained untouchable and won the race. It's a pretty small mistake overall and I wouldn't normally bring it up but just highlighting that it's rare for anyone to have a perfect season

since I wrote that Hamilton's not dropped anywhere near the same level of points I don't think you can claim that at all.

On that we agree. In fact it's more than rare. It has never actually happened. Every driver makes some errors every season. Some errors are small and some are big. The closest to perfection I've seen in recent years would be Schumacher in 2002. He was on the podium in every race that year and won 11 out of 17. He still made mistakes though. You'll never see a human being go a whole season literally without getting anything wrong.

As for the idea that Vettel was considered driver of the season in the opening half, I don't recall much of this going around? I thought Ricciardo was the best for the first third at least... or Alonso.

What are the points swings for purely driver error this season for Vettel and Hamilton reasonably speaking? Has anyone tried to put that picture together?

In thinking of errors which lead to clear to be seen negative consequences...

Vettel

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China
Vettel spins up and ruins his tyres (rears) after the incident with Verstappen, which loses him two additional places from 6th-8th at the hands of Hulk and Alonso. It's worth noting that he started on pole also and yet finished 8th. Max is largely to blame but Vettel appeared to have lost his mind in the immediate aftermath of the incident?

Swing of 4 points (Ham gains 0 additional points).

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Baku
Seb tries an overambitious pass for the lead after a safety car restart and ends up losing two spots initially and a further spot to Perez because he damaged his tyres. Hamilton gained a position as a consequence.

In ignoring the freak incident with Bottas and how that changes the consequences, the actual error handed Hamilton an additional 3 points and lost Vettel 8 points for a swing of 11 points (Ham gains 3 additional points).

France
Seb is at fault for a first lap incident involving himself and Bottas and has to produce a recovery drive. He started P3 and finished P5 and Hamilton did not gain further points as a consequence.

Swing of 5 points (Ham gains 0 additional points).

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Austria
Vettel is given a 5-place grid penalty for blocking Sainz in qualifying. He would have qualified P3 but starts the race P8 and only finishes P3 behind his own team-mate and Max Verstappen. It’s difficult to give a proper measure of the point swing here because of the Merc double DNF, but he lost 2 places. A double Merc DNF suggests something about the car and the track was quite incompatible and that a race win for Vettel would have been quite reasonable. Nonetheless I’ll take the conservative view…

Swing of 5 points (P3-P5 assuming Mercs stay on the road… Ham gains 0 additional points).

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Germany
Vettel crashes out from the lead of the race. The narrative that it’s a small error that lead to big consequences appears to be a popular one and Vettel was especially keen to paint it as such. It doesn’t matter how small the error appears – it was a huge mistake. Small in appearances does not mean it has to be small in actuality. If one believes Hamilton would have overtaken Vettel regardless, the points swing is lesser. If one believes Vettel would have held on to win then we have a…

…swing of 32 points (Ham gains 7 additional points).

At this point we’re about halfway through the season and Vettel has quite the ledger of significant errors.

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Italy
Vettel and Hamilton have a first lap incident and ends up at the back, having to produce a recovery drive. The incident itself is a racing incident but the prevailing thought is that Vettel handled the situation poorly. He started P2 and ended P4. Hamilton started P3 and through the incident gained P2.
Swing of 9 points (Ham gains an additional 3 points).

If one considers that Vettel taking himself out of contention to help the team secure a win, allowing Mercedes to bully Kimi, then the swing is 16 points with Ham gaining an additional 10 points.

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Japan
Here a blatant error in qualifying led to Vettel’s downfall, as he qualified P9 when P3 would have been reasonable or even expected (a Ferrari second-row lockout). On conjecture, I think Vettel would have finished P2 judging by his furious pace in the race and Bottas’ questionable race pace – I believe that Ferrari had better race performance than Red Bull. As usual though I’ll take the conservative (kind?) approach. In the race, Vettel quickly got up to P4 and likely had the pace to pass Verstappen for P3. A typically hasty Vettel manouver and typically bullish Max defense led to an incident and although at this stage in the season it’s do or die for Vettel to have a chance at the Championship, I cannot understand his absurd hastiness in what is a long race. P3 was reasonable for Vettel even when starting the race P8! He ended P6.

Swing of 7 points (Ham gains 0 additional points).

Overall swing of 73 points.

I haven’t included matters of superior performance, such as Hamilton overtaking Vettel in Russia (which had huge ramifications and caused a large point swing in combination with team orders which otherwise wouldn’t have occurred). Hamilton has been pulling rabbits out of the hat in his purple patch this season and has shown an obvious superiority in wet conditions, trumping Vettel and being a game changer for Mercedes. This more than offsets places arguably gained with superior performance from Vettel during earlier weekends in the season where it can be argued that Hamilton was a bit off the pace generally speaking.




Hamilton

… OK I expected to find obvious mistakes but the only one I can see is…

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Britain
Hamilton gets a bad start and finishes P2 after starting on P1. This depends on conjecture as he still may have won the race despite his bad start. This mistake does not entail the incident caused by Kimi Raikkonen shortly after.

Overall swing of 14 points (Vettel gains 7 additional points).

Again, instances of more general superior performance have not been included.




************************************
Combined swing of 59 points (73-14).

Without these driver errors the standings could be closer to something like…

Hamilton – 325 (331 - 13 points gained through Vettel errors + 7 points lost through Ham errors = 325)
Vettel – 317 (264 - 7 points gained through Ham errors + 60 points lost through Vettel errors = 317)

Again, instances of more general superior performance have not been included. I think it’s clear Hamilton has been better and overall has also eked out further gains over Vettel through less obvious and more general superior performance. Obvious examples are his efforts in qualifying in Hungary, Spa and Singapore. Hamilton is slightly ahead in the calculations but not necessarily because he has the better car. He has been the better performer outside of the errors too (it can be comfortably argued, not a fact of course) and over the season that earned him more points. Also, I’ve taken a conservative view on Vettel’s mistakes and frankly the most dubious inclusion for me is Hamilton’s error, as really he may well have still won the race, leading to a swing of 0 points rather than 14. It was Kimi causing a collision that virtually ended Hamilton’s chances of winning the British GP. The inclusion of China for Vettel can also be argued to be harsh and something which should have never come up in the first place but it did and Vettel did torch his tyres.


There are other factors such as team operations and instances of pure bad luck which skew these things. For example despite Vettel's reaction in the aftermath of the incident with Verstappen in China, it should have never happened in the first place normally and it cost Vettel plenty of points through sheer bad luck. Hamilton has had a mechanical DNF and Vettel has not, and has had a gearbox penalty (Bahrain? I don't recall) and qualifying issues during the German GP for which we aren't sure where to place the blame.

Some of this relies on at least some conjecture and I’m not sure how consistent this is or if I’ve made any blunders but I’m sure some of you will chime in.

Vettel had his chance to cruise around in the Ferrari but he blew it.

_________________
PF1 Pick 10 Competition

2013: 5th Place
2014: Champion
2015: 3rd Place
2016: 4th Place
2017: 9th Place
2018: 7th place

Wins: Canada 2018, Abu Dhabi 2017
Podiums: (6)

Indeed like we have to keep hearing that Vettel crashing out while leading in Germany was just a small mistake, it cost him 32 points.

_________________
PF1 Pick 10 Competition

2013: 5th Place
2014: Champion
2015: 3rd Place
2016: 4th Place
2017: 9th Place
2018: 7th place

Wins: Canada 2018, Abu Dhabi 2017
Podiums: (6)

Baku was a swing of 20 points given that Vettel wins the race and Hamilton finishes second after Bottas' puncture as opposed to Hamilton winning and Vettel finishing 4th.

_________________
PF1 Pick 10 Competition

2013: 5th Place
2014: Champion
2015: 3rd Place
2016: 4th Place
2017: 9th Place
2018: 7th place

Wins: Canada 2018, Abu Dhabi 2017
Podiums: (6)

It was a small mistake. You appear to be confusing actions with consequences

He did say "ignoring the freak error"