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Who will be third in WDC?
Raikkonen 71%  71%  [ 17 ]
Bottas 21%  21%  [ 5 ]
Verstappen 8%  8%  [ 2 ]
Total votes : 24
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 Post subject: Third in WDC?
PostPosted: Sat Nov 10, 2018 1:13 pm 
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There are only 20 points between them, two races to go.

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 Post subject: Re: Third in WDC?
PostPosted: Sat Nov 10, 2018 1:50 pm 
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Before Brazil:
Kimi Raikkonen - 236
Valtteri Bottas - 227 -9pts.
Max Verstappen - 216 -20pts.

F1 points awards
Position - Points
1st - 25
2nd - 18
3rd - 15
4th - 12
5th - 10
6th - 8
7th - 6
8th - 4
9th - 2
10th - 1

Max will probably need to win and have drivers between himself and Kimi/Valtteri. Max will also need absolute reliability from a car that has not shown it much this year.

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 Post subject: Re: Third in WDC?
PostPosted: Sat Nov 10, 2018 1:50 pm 
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I see Mercedes as being overall the strongest in the next 2 races. Especially in the final race. And I've just got the feeling Hamilton will loose his fighting spirit and Bottas may be able to pull off a win in the last race. I also think Red Bull will be well behind Mercedes and likely Ferrari too in Abu Dhabi so I think Verstappen will be 5th in the end. If Vettel beats Kimi both races and Mercedes are as strong as I think they will be, then I think Bottas will get enough points over Kimi to just about beat him.

I think the order from 3rd to 5th will be Bottas, Kimi, Verstappen.

To many, it may look like Kimi's had a better season than Bottas. but overall, I think Bottas has been better. Kimi did have a bit of bad luck but got many of those points back by benefiting from others misfortune in races like Baku and one or two others. There have hardly been any occasions this year that i could say Bottas has been lucky. He's lost around 60 - 70 points due to bad luck or team orders. A lot of his recent performance has been down to him not doing well enough though. Kimi has had a few races recently that have looked good, but he didn't look great in the first half of the season and at the first part of the season was where Bottas had several great drives but lost points through no fault of his own in 2 of them.

I have to admit it is pretty impressive the turn around Verstappen has made. But I do think that often when he's made a mistake resulting in starting at the back, that has resulted in getting a strategy that actually worked out to be a very good one. I also think the Red Bull is by far the best car at overtaking round corners and recovering from the back of the grid. It just doesn't suffer in dirty air like Ferrari or Mercedes. Still, the fact that he's this close in a car that a lot of the time is some way off the Ferrari and Mercedes is very good. But I just don't see the next 2 races suiting the car. So I feel he will stay 5th.


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 Post subject: Re: Third in WDC?
PostPosted: Sat Nov 10, 2018 2:59 pm 
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Obviously, Max winning both races is not going to happen, but if the podiums were Max, Bottas, Kimi in both races then he would secure third. However, given the points premium for winning over all other positions, it means without winning he will need cars between him and the others. If he's second in both, then he needs Kimi 6th in both races and Bottas 4th and 5th. However as neither track left is suited to Red Bull, really he needs retirements from them.


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 Post subject: Re: Third in WDC?
PostPosted: Sun Nov 11, 2018 7:01 pm 
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Well.

Kimi Raikkonen - 251
Valtteri Bottas - 237 -14pts.
Max Verstappen - 234 -17pts.

Still think it is very unlikely that Red Bull will be as good as Ferrari or Mercedes next race weekend. So I'm pretty sure Verstappen will remain 5th. But Bottas will have to win and Have Kimi finish 5th or lower. But if I'm honest, he has had several races where the two mercedes, his team mate and Verstappen has managed to get and stay ahead. Feel it is most likely to stay in this order now. But could still be changes.


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 Post subject: Re: Third in WDC?
PostPosted: Sun Nov 11, 2018 7:27 pm 
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Regardless, Max has had a better season than either of them.


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 Post subject: Re: Third in WDC?
PostPosted: Sun Nov 11, 2018 7:31 pm 
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Invade wrote:
Regardless, Max has had a better season than either of them.


Exactly, considering his first half of the season.


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 Post subject: Re: Third in WDC?
PostPosted: Sun Nov 11, 2018 7:43 pm 
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Invade wrote:
Regardless, Max has had a better season than either of them.


He probably made more mistakes than others as well. Especially in China and Monaco where Ricciardo won. It could have been 1-2 easily for them. Bottas had lots of bad luck and Kimi has had 3DNF without his mistakes. RBR cannot compete in qualifying but I think their race pace is probably the best.

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 Post subject: Re: Third in WDC?
PostPosted: Sun Nov 25, 2018 11:27 pm 
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Well Valtteri had a car that could have put him in a comfortable third place this season. Bad luck and possibly some uninspired driving meant that he ended up in fifth.

Kimi pretty much had a lock on third until the red car stopped. Given Lewis' win, he could probably have cruised home any place in group of the best six and sealed the deal.

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 Post subject: Re: Third in WDC?
PostPosted: Mon Nov 26, 2018 12:13 am 
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To be fair to Bottas, winning in Russia would have put him 3rd.

And, had Max seen sense and let Ocon past in Brazil, he would have been third even if Bottas had been allowed that win.


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