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PostPosted: Fri Mar 01, 2019 3:59 pm 
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And just after I typed that, I see this from Autosport:

Lewis faster than Ferrari on current tyre
That lap from Hamilton certainly puts the cat amongst the pigeons.
He posted it on the C4s, so the second-softest and second-fastest tyre available.
On the same compound, Vettel, Leclerc and Bottas were around three tenths of a second slower.


So all this talk of Ferrari being half a second ahead might be a bit of a smokescreen..?


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PostPosted: Fri Mar 01, 2019 3:59 pm 
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Zoue wrote:
Siao7 wrote:
Hamilton pounding it on the C5, up to third with a 1:16.628
According to Autosport he was on the C4 compound, which would make his lap quicker than Bottas tyre-adjusted.

Ferrari certainly look ahead, but it's difficult to know exactly as we can't say for sure what the compound differences are. I think I might be right in saying Hamilton's is the fastest C4 time? In which case are they maybe not so far away from each other at all?


Yes according to this tweet (https://twitter.com/andrewbensonf1/stat ... 8959932416), that's faster than any Ferrari C4 time. And tyre adjusted, possibly faster than their C5 time. I would like to see Hamilton have a go on the C5 before the end of the day.

Saying that, Vettel did a 16.7 on the C3 earlier I think so that tyre adjusted would be quicker.


Last edited by JN23 on Fri Mar 01, 2019 4:01 pm, edited 1 time in total.

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PostPosted: Fri Mar 01, 2019 4:00 pm 
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Tomorrow am expecting a host of testing analysis across various websites. It will be an interesting read. Best thing is there's just 2 weeks till we witness the real thing & all the teams will show their cards so as to speak.

But all this is surely leading 1 of the most anticipated starts to a season in a long time.

Are Ferrari really 0.5 secs faster than Mercedes?
Is Red Bull wit the Honda engine good enough to compete for wins?
Are Renault & McLaren vying for Best of the Rest?
Will Kubica turn Williams' fortunes around?

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PostPosted: Fri Mar 01, 2019 4:07 pm 
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Zoue wrote:
Siao7 wrote:
Hamilton pounding it on the C5, up to third with a 1:16.628
According to Autosport he was on the C4 compound, which would make his lap quicker than Bottas tyre-adjusted.

Ferrari certainly look ahead, but it's difficult to know exactly as we can't say for sure what the compound differences are. I think I might be right in saying Hamilton's is the fastest C4 time? In which case are they maybe not so far away from each other at all?


No. And if Merc gets the front wing concept going like the Ferrari/Alpha ones, maybe they'll be up there, if not in front. And they look to have better reliability so far, if we are to make anything out of it


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PostPosted: Fri Mar 01, 2019 4:07 pm 
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1.16.224 for Hamilton on the C5s which is 0.003 slower than Vettel. Game on!


Last edited by JN23 on Fri Mar 01, 2019 4:08 pm, edited 1 time in total.

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PostPosted: Fri Mar 01, 2019 4:08 pm 
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JN23 wrote:
1.16.221 for Hamilton on the C5s which is 0.003 slower than Vettel. Game on!

Yep, 0.5s slower my ar$e. Now we have the answer over whether or not they were playing mind games...


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PostPosted: Fri Mar 01, 2019 4:16 pm 
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Siao7 wrote:
Zoue wrote:
Siao7 wrote:
Hamilton pounding it on the C5, up to third with a 1:16.628
According to Autosport he was on the C4 compound, which would make his lap quicker than Bottas tyre-adjusted.

Ferrari certainly look ahead, but it's difficult to know exactly as we can't say for sure what the compound differences are. I think I might be right in saying Hamilton's is the fastest C4 time? In which case are they maybe not so far away from each other at all?


No. And if Merc gets the front wing concept going like the Ferrari/Alpha ones, maybe they'll be up there, if not in front. And they look to have better reliability so far, if we are to make anything out of it

Yeah going by Bottas' long runs the other day and Hamilton's flyers today, I'm sticking with my original impression that they look pretty close and I think Toto and Hamilton were doing the usual mind games guff. But Ferrari have a bit of work to do as regards reliability as they've had way more issues than Mercedes have.


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PostPosted: Fri Mar 01, 2019 4:18 pm 
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Good lap from Hulkenberg with a 1.16.843 on the C5s, Renault's fastest lap of testing.


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PostPosted: Fri Mar 01, 2019 4:23 pm 
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I reckon Ferrari have about 2 tenths on Mercedes.

It will be a continuation of 2018, and I doubt RBR are that close to either of them somehow.

Ferrari started to reel in Mercedes bigtime in 2017, probably surpassed them in 2018, and now they've made another huge step. But Mercedes have brought the goodies and will do all they can to stem that trend.

Just quite clueless on RBR right now.


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PostPosted: Fri Mar 01, 2019 4:49 pm 
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What is wrong with RBR ? Last 2 days they have done too many laps

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PostPosted: Fri Mar 01, 2019 4:57 pm 
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With a Red flag due to Magnussen's car stopping on the track, Testing is over. Here's the classification from today:

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Source - www.imgur.com

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PostPosted: Fri Mar 01, 2019 5:02 pm 
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Mercedes-Benz wrote:
What is wrong with RBR ? Last 2 days they have done too many laps


Gearbox issue today


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PostPosted: Fri Mar 01, 2019 5:09 pm 
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sandbaggers!


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PostPosted: Fri Mar 01, 2019 5:18 pm 
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Anyone know where the term "sandbagging" came from?


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PostPosted: Fri Mar 01, 2019 5:24 pm 
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Option or Prime wrote:
Anyone know where the term "sandbagging" came from?

I'm assuming it comes from placing bags of sand on some type of vessel in order to impede it's velocity.


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PostPosted: Fri Mar 01, 2019 5:31 pm 
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Zoue wrote:
Siao7 wrote:
Hamilton pounding it on the C5, up to third with a 1:16.628
According to Autosport he was on the C4 compound, which would make his lap quicker than Bottas tyre-adjusted.

Ferrari certainly look ahead, but it's difficult to know exactly as we can't say for sure what the compound differences are. I think I might be right in saying Hamilton's is the fastest C4 time? In which case are they maybe not so far away from each other at all?

Didn't Vettel do a 1-16.7 on the C3 tyre?

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PostPosted: Fri Mar 01, 2019 5:36 pm 
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JN23 wrote:
Mercedes-Benz wrote:
What is wrong with RBR ? Last 2 days they have done too many laps


Gearbox issue today


Gasly crashed yesterday as well. If he keeps crashing I think Kvyat will be back to RBR soon. lol. Except the last 2 days they were looking good.

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PostPosted: Fri Mar 01, 2019 6:58 pm 
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Mercedes-Benz wrote:
JN23 wrote:
Mercedes-Benz wrote:
What is wrong with RBR ? Last 2 days they have done too many laps


Gearbox issue today


Gasly crashed yesterday as well. If he keeps crashing I think Kvyat will be back to RBR soon. lol. Except the last 2 days they were looking good.

Hopefully he's getting these crashes out of his system. Gasly, perhaps more than any other driver on the grid, was flattered by the weakness of his teammate last year. I think it's entirely possible that he will be absolutely destroyed this season.


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PostPosted: Fri Mar 01, 2019 8:17 pm 
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The reality is that in appearances Ferrari look best. What especially strikes me are two particular laps: Leclerc 17.2 on C2 and Vettel 16.7 on C3. By comparison, Hamilton managed a 16.6 on the C4.

Ferrari are very quick. Mercedes are probably behind but not by too much.


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PostPosted: Fri Mar 01, 2019 8:27 pm 
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Invade wrote:
The reality is that in appearances Ferrari look best. What especially strikes me are two particular laps: Leclerc 17.2 on C2 and Vettel 16.7 on C3. By comparison, Hamilton managed a 16.6 on the C4.

Ferrari are very quick. Mercedes are probably behind but not by too much.


Ferrari's look rapid, but if there are reliability issues or Vettel and Leclerc start pirouetting the Mercs/Red Bulls are not that far behind.


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PostPosted: Fri Mar 01, 2019 8:29 pm 
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shay550 wrote:
Invade wrote:
The reality is that in appearances Ferrari look best. What especially strikes me are two particular laps: Leclerc 17.2 on C2 and Vettel 16.7 on C3. By comparison, Hamilton managed a 16.6 on the C4.

Ferrari are very quick. Mercedes are probably behind but not by too much.


Ferrari's look rapid, but if there are reliability issues or Vettel and Leclerc start pirouetting the Mercs/Red Bulls are not that far behind.


I'm not convinced that RBR are really there right now.


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PostPosted: Sat Mar 02, 2019 12:49 am 
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Invade wrote:
The reality is that in appearances Ferrari look best. What especially strikes me are two particular laps: Leclerc 17.2 on C2 and Vettel 16.7 on C3. By comparison, Hamilton managed a 16.6 on the C4.

Ferrari are very quick. Mercedes are probably behind but not by too much.

Indeed just going off those times puts Ferrari 3 to 4 tenths quicker.

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PostPosted: Sat Mar 02, 2019 1:00 am 
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Invade wrote:
shay550 wrote:
Invade wrote:
The reality is that in appearances Ferrari look best. What especially strikes me are two particular laps: Leclerc 17.2 on C2 and Vettel 16.7 on C3. By comparison, Hamilton managed a 16.6 on the C4.

Ferrari are very quick. Mercedes are probably behind but not by too much.


Ferrari's look rapid, but if there are reliability issues or Vettel and Leclerc start pirouetting the Mercs/Red Bulls are not that far behind.


I'm not convinced that RBR are really there right now.

Considering the fact that Mercedes and Red Bull seem to share the same front wing concept; it's likely that Ferrari will be too quick for both of them. Red Bull are probably the hardeest team to assess (along with RP) because they didn't do much late in the test.


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PostPosted: Sat Mar 02, 2019 3:32 am 
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Fastest laps across the last 4 days:

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Source - https://pbs.twimg.com/media/D0l6ioVX4AIlrlE.jpg:large

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PostPosted: Sat Mar 02, 2019 10:01 am 
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pokerman wrote:
Invade wrote:
The reality is that in appearances Ferrari look best. What especially strikes me are two particular laps: Leclerc 17.2 on C2 and Vettel 16.7 on C3. By comparison, Hamilton managed a 16.6 on the C4.

Ferrari are very quick. Mercedes are probably behind but not by too much.

Indeed just going off those times puts Ferrari 3 to 4 tenths quicker.

It doesn’t, though. Because we can extrapolate all we want but the fact remains that on identical tyres Vettel and Hamilton posted near-identical times. Which puts them pretty close to each other and I think it’s fair to say both were trying, at least on the fastest tyre. It’s doubtful either had the engines cranked up to party mode but that’s likely to be the only variable left.


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PostPosted: Sat Mar 02, 2019 2:21 pm 
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Zoue wrote:
pokerman wrote:
Invade wrote:
The reality is that in appearances Ferrari look best. What especially strikes me are two particular laps: Leclerc 17.2 on C2 and Vettel 16.7 on C3. By comparison, Hamilton managed a 16.6 on the C4.

Ferrari are very quick. Mercedes are probably behind but not by too much.

Indeed just going off those times puts Ferrari 3 to 4 tenths quicker.

It doesn’t, though. Because we can extrapolate all we want but the fact remains that on identical tyres Vettel and Hamilton posted near-identical times. Which puts them pretty close to each other and I think it’s fair to say both were trying, at least on the fastest tyre. It’s doubtful either had the engines cranked up to party mode but that’s likely to be the only variable left.



There's still a lot unknown so it's all conjecture but the 16.7 on C3 is pretty bonkers. The race sims also looked better for Ferrari, but at the same time they looked more honest, ergo Mercedes might have had heavier sandbags.


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PostPosted: Sat Mar 02, 2019 2:33 pm 
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Invade wrote:
Zoue wrote:
pokerman wrote:
Invade wrote:
The reality is that in appearances Ferrari look best. What especially strikes me are two particular laps: Leclerc 17.2 on C2 and Vettel 16.7 on C3. By comparison, Hamilton managed a 16.6 on the C4.

Ferrari are very quick. Mercedes are probably behind but not by too much.

Indeed just going off those times puts Ferrari 3 to 4 tenths quicker.

It doesn’t, though. Because we can extrapolate all we want but the fact remains that on identical tyres Vettel and Hamilton posted near-identical times. Which puts them pretty close to each other and I think it’s fair to say both were trying, at least on the fastest tyre. It’s doubtful either had the engines cranked up to party mode but that’s likely to be the only variable left.



There's still a lot unknown so it's all conjecture but the 16.7 on C3 is pretty bonkers. The race sims also looked better for Ferrari, but at the same time they looked more honest, ergo Mercedes might have had heavier sandbags.

It is a very impressive lap. And I agree it's pretty much conjecture at this point but to me the C5 runs looked like qualifying sims and I have a suspicion that they were both trying for the kudos of the fastest lap, so I think those laps are probably the more honest as regards ultimate pace. The rest are subject to a lot more debate as regards fuel loads etc. And of course if one thing is virtually guaranteed it's that Pirelli's estimates for tyre differences are likely to be way off, so we don't know just what it translates to.

But in any event, I doubt any of the teams will have brought their complete Aussie spec cars and I expect some fairly significant changes to the front wings in particular, as they tend to try to keep those secret as long as possible. I'm expecting pole in the 1:15s so there's more to come from everyone and it's way too early to be talking about how many tenths advantage any team has because the cars will be different.


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PostPosted: Sat Mar 02, 2019 2:49 pm 
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Zoue wrote:
Invade wrote:
Zoue wrote:
pokerman wrote:
Invade wrote:
The reality is that in appearances Ferrari look best. What especially strikes me are two particular laps: Leclerc 17.2 on C2 and Vettel 16.7 on C3. By comparison, Hamilton managed a 16.6 on the C4.

Ferrari are very quick. Mercedes are probably behind but not by too much.

Indeed just going off those times puts Ferrari 3 to 4 tenths quicker.

It doesn’t, though. Because we can extrapolate all we want but the fact remains that on identical tyres Vettel and Hamilton posted near-identical times. Which puts them pretty close to each other and I think it’s fair to say both were trying, at least on the fastest tyre. It’s doubtful either had the engines cranked up to party mode but that’s likely to be the only variable left.



There's still a lot unknown so it's all conjecture but the 16.7 on C3 is pretty bonkers. The race sims also looked better for Ferrari, but at the same time they looked more honest, ergo Mercedes might have had heavier sandbags.

It is a very impressive lap. And I agree it's pretty much conjecture at this point but to me the C5 runs looked like qualifying sims and I have a suspicion that they were both trying for the kudos of the fastest lap, so I think those laps are probably the more honest as regards ultimate pace. The rest are subject to a lot more debate as regards fuel loads etc. And of course if one thing is virtually guaranteed it's that Pirelli's estimates for tyre differences are likely to be way off, so we don't know just what it translates to.

But in any event, I doubt any of the teams will have brought their complete Aussie spec cars and I expect some fairly significant changes to the front wings in particular, as they tend to try to keep those secret as long as possible. I'm expecting pole in the 1:15s so there's more to come from everyone and it's way too early to be talking about how many tenths advantage any team has because the cars will be different.


However, all I can go by is what I see, so in the fun of creating a pecking order there's a clear leader, but I'm not remotely confident it will actually hold for the opening races of the season so naturally any prediction is to be taken with a bucket of salt.

I do think though that the top teams were not sandbagging enough that the apparent gains made by other teams aren't real in the relative sense. That's to say, as another prediction, that initially I do expect the field to have bunched up somewhat as compared to last year, with the top teams pulling away further as the season progresses - though I wonder if one other midfield team can cling onto their coattails. You can refer to my post in Sandman's thread about if the cars are faster this year than last year regarding the above. I too expect pole to be in the 1:15s though.


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PostPosted: Sat Mar 02, 2019 5:29 pm 
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One attempted prognostication...



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PostPosted: Sat Mar 02, 2019 7:19 pm 
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Invade wrote:
One attempted prognostication...



These Autosport fellas are so sure the Ferrari is the faster car. If Merc or Redbull beat them in Melbourne these guys have a lot of explaining to do. I think Mark priestsley said it best: nobody knows for sure and there are too many variables:

https://m.youtube.com/watch?v=dGeMqnzumss&t=619s


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PostPosted: Sat Mar 02, 2019 10:32 pm 
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How much more developing of cars can the teams do between now and the first race?


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PostPosted: Sat Mar 02, 2019 11:30 pm 
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Kev627 wrote:
How much more developing of cars can the teams do between now and the first race?

By all accounts they can do quite a lot. The tests will give them a baseline for the cars' behaviour so they can fine tweak everything to maximise the performance. I'll bet the cars will be noticeably quicker in Australia


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PostPosted: Sun Mar 03, 2019 2:22 am 
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Zoue wrote:
pokerman wrote:
Invade wrote:
The reality is that in appearances Ferrari look best. What especially strikes me are two particular laps: Leclerc 17.2 on C2 and Vettel 16.7 on C3. By comparison, Hamilton managed a 16.6 on the C4.

Ferrari are very quick. Mercedes are probably behind but not by too much.

Indeed just going off those times puts Ferrari 3 to 4 tenths quicker.

It doesn’t, though. Because we can extrapolate all we want but the fact remains that on identical tyres Vettel and Hamilton posted near-identical times. Which puts them pretty close to each other and I think it’s fair to say both were trying, at least on the fastest tyre. It’s doubtful either had the engines cranked up to party mode but that’s likely to be the only variable left.

Fastest laps don't mean that much anyway, with Vettel doing a 1-16.7 on the C3's then the 1-16.2 lap on C5's is clearly not ultimate pace so Hamilton matching that doesn't mean anything which is basically the point I was making.

More important are the race sims were Ferrari look to be 0.5s quicker, this is were the experts try to determine which are the faster cars.

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PostPosted: Sun Mar 03, 2019 3:15 am 
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Kev627 wrote:
How much more developing of cars can the teams do between now and the first race?


We can expect all the team maybe except Williams to make big changes to their cars before Melbourne. The changes are a never ending progress throughout the year.

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PostPosted: Sun Mar 03, 2019 3:18 am 
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kleefton wrote:
Invade wrote:
One attempted prognostication...



These Autosport fellas are so sure the Ferrari is the faster car. If Merc or Redbull beat them in Melbourne these guys have a lot of explaining to do. I think Mark priestsley said it best: nobody knows for sure and there are too many variables:

https://m.youtube.com/watch?v=dGeMqnzumss&t=619s


I've read through a few websites via their articles or videos talking about ranking the teams & I still haven't come across any one stating Mercedes is ahead. All have ranked Ferrari at the top but most of them say it's not a very big margin (0.5 seconds). Red Bull could also be close behind.

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PostPosted: Sun Mar 03, 2019 4:25 am 
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Haas looked good last year in testing but this year as well they will start as 4th ? will be a surprise IMO

Also I do not think STR will be higher than Mclaren both teams did lot of laps and Mclaren has better drivers too. I think 1st and last team is easy to guess from the test. But I will not be surprised if Mercedes win the first race. Moreover it takes some 3 or so races for team to finally know how good their package is due to different nature of track, conditions. Australia is a like a just a wider street track.

OMG just now came to know there is no Sepang this year. I liked that track and usually Ferrari were good there

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PostPosted: Sun Mar 03, 2019 4:43 am 
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Some interesting graphical representation from Motorsport.com.

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Source - www.imgur.com

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PostPosted: Sun Mar 03, 2019 6:38 am 
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Mercedes-Benz wrote:
Haas looked good last year in testing but this year as well they will start as 4th ? will be a surprise IMO

Also I do not think STR will be higher than Mclaren both teams did lot of laps and Mclaren has better drivers too. I think 1st and last team is easy to guess from the test. But I will not be surprised if Mercedes win the first race. Moreover it takes some 3 or so races for team to finally know how good their package is due to different nature of track, conditions. Australia is a like a just a wider street track.

OMG just now came to know there is no Sepang this year. I liked that track and usually Ferrari were good there


There was no Sepang last year as well.

But I agree that Australia is not a normal venue. Whatever happens over there will not necessarily determine the true pecking order. China and Bahrain are better tracks for that.


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PostPosted: Sun Mar 03, 2019 8:11 am 
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kleefton wrote:
But I agree that Australia is not a normal venue. Whatever happens over there will not necessarily determine the true pecking order. China and Bahrain are better tracks for that.

Historically, Bahrain is a wonderful track for predicting the champion. Until Vettel broke that pattern the last two years, the winner of the Bahrain GP (normal layout) had a nearly 100% record of winning the championship, the only exceptions being the two years Massa won it.

But arguably, that still makes it dead accurate for predicting the car that should win the title. The 2007 and 2008 Ferraris were the class of the field, and the 2017 and 2018 Ferraris were certainly championship capable - in particular, the 2018 car.

Regarding Australia, it has become known as a Mercedes stronghold in recent years. If Mercedes is beaten on pure pace in Melbourne, that will be a sign that they are definitely in trouble.

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PostPosted: Sun Mar 03, 2019 10:39 am 
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pokerman wrote:
Zoue wrote:
pokerman wrote:
Invade wrote:
The reality is that in appearances Ferrari look best. What especially strikes me are two particular laps: Leclerc 17.2 on C2 and Vettel 16.7 on C3. By comparison, Hamilton managed a 16.6 on the C4.

Ferrari are very quick. Mercedes are probably behind but not by too much.

Indeed just going off those times puts Ferrari 3 to 4 tenths quicker.

It doesn’t, though. Because we can extrapolate all we want but the fact remains that on identical tyres Vettel and Hamilton posted near-identical times. Which puts them pretty close to each other and I think it’s fair to say both were trying, at least on the fastest tyre. It’s doubtful either had the engines cranked up to party mode but that’s likely to be the only variable left.

Fastest laps don't mean that much anyway, with Vettel doing a 1-16.7 on the C3's then the 1-16.2 lap on C5's is clearly not ultimate pace so Hamilton matching that doesn't mean anything which is basically the point I was making.

More important are the race sims were Ferrari look to be 0.5s quicker, this is were the experts try to determine which are the faster cars.

my understanding is the race sims had Ferrari 2-3 tenths quicker.

Overall I'd agree the Ferrari looks like the quicker car so far and going by Bottas' comments the Merc looks trickier to dial in. However the last minute display by Mercedes does tend to indicate they've been holding back a bit and there might be more to come from them. Don't forget Hamilton also put a lap on the C4s which was 2-3 tenths quicker than anything the Ferraris had done (see further up this page), so it's also possible that different tyres suit the cars better.

In summary for me advantage Ferrari but I wouldn't write Mercedes off just yet


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