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pokerman
PostPosted: Mon Jan 14, 2019 2:31 pm 
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Zoue wrote:
pokerman wrote:
motorfinger wrote:
TheGiantHogweed wrote:
motorfinger wrote:
Kimi had two more DNFs, thats at least some 20 points lost.

Kimi may have had 2 more DNFs, but he has benifited from others misfortune quite lot earlier on in the season while Bottas hasn't really over the whole season. Kimi has basically got back a good deal of the points lost with good luck. Baku is one example. He was 6th and didnit look at all impressive then near the end that sudenly turned to 2nd due to mistakes and bad luck from other drivers. Then he had the 2 Mercedes driver retire in Austria. Gained 2 positions and 6 points there. He has probably gained around 25 points overall due to similar things happening. So overall, I would say he's no worse than Bottas for bad luck. I'd infact say Bottas was slightly worse off. Bottas just doesn't seem to have had any good luck this season. I personally think Botats's season was marginally better than Kimi's this year. Given how many say Kimi's season seemed good this year, I don't know why so many are against Bottas. He was not great in the 2nd half, but Hamilton being so good really has effected how Bottas has looked recently.

Thats just dishonest, surely Valteri benefited from some mishaps of others, prime example being that very said Baku where he only got the lead due to lucky SC, yet everyone is harping on about how he lost the win there. I am almost sure there are other examples.

How can Bottas have benefited in Baku when he didn't even finish the race?

obvious one. People say he was unlucky to lose the win, which doesn't take into account that he was already lucky to be in that position in the first place. In other words, people tend to be a bit selective in choosing which bits of (bad) luck to highlight

However when comparing with Kimi how did he actually benefit?

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Zoue
PostPosted: Mon Jan 14, 2019 2:36 pm 
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pokerman wrote:
Zoue wrote:
pokerman wrote:
motorfinger wrote:
TheGiantHogweed wrote:
Kimi may have had 2 more DNFs, but he has benifited from others misfortune quite lot earlier on in the season while Bottas hasn't really over the whole season. Kimi has basically got back a good deal of the points lost with good luck. Baku is one example. He was 6th and didnit look at all impressive then near the end that sudenly turned to 2nd due to mistakes and bad luck from other drivers. Then he had the 2 Mercedes driver retire in Austria. Gained 2 positions and 6 points there. He has probably gained around 25 points overall due to similar things happening. So overall, I would say he's no worse than Bottas for bad luck. I'd infact say Bottas was slightly worse off. Bottas just doesn't seem to have had any good luck this season. I personally think Botats's season was marginally better than Kimi's this year. Given how many say Kimi's season seemed good this year, I don't know why so many are against Bottas. He was not great in the 2nd half, but Hamilton being so good really has effected how Bottas has looked recently.

Thats just dishonest, surely Valteri benefited from some mishaps of others, prime example being that very said Baku where he only got the lead due to lucky SC, yet everyone is harping on about how he lost the win there. I am almost sure there are other examples.

How can Bottas have benefited in Baku when he didn't even finish the race?

obvious one. People say he was unlucky to lose the win, which doesn't take into account that he was already lucky to be in that position in the first place. In other words, people tend to be a bit selective in choosing which bits of (bad) luck to highlight

However when comparing with Kimi how did he actually benefit?

I'm talking in general terms, not just that specific race
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pokerman
PostPosted: Mon Jan 14, 2019 2:50 pm 
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motorfinger wrote:
Johnson wrote:
Kimi had a "good season" relative to some of the poor ones he has had recently like 2014,2015 and 2017... if you are judging him against the best, Kimi had a poor season. But the bar for Kimi now is much lower and relative to the level he has been at the last few seasons - he had a good year.

But Vettel making many errors still beat him and was quicker 85% of the time. If Vettel didn't make so many errors, Kimi would have been thrashed.

Trashed is a bit too much, as is your percentage assessment. Vettel had ZERO technical retirements, Kimi 4. No one is denying that Vettel was still quicker of the two, some are eager to exaggerate the gap though. Kimi had a solid season, quali mistakes were still there, as was lack of a first lap aggression, but he wasn't massively slower then Vettel, in fact i would say 17 - 4 quali score doesn't do justice to Kimis pace.

I would say that 17-4 perfectly illustrates the gulf in performance.

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pokerman
PostPosted: Mon Jan 14, 2019 2:52 pm 
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motorfinger wrote:
pokerman wrote:
motorfinger wrote:
Pointing out that Valteri finished behind Kimi due to team orders is not simplistic i guess? I agree that Valteri gets bashed a bit too much, but the usual strategy of not giving Kimi any credit doesn't help Valteri much IMO.

In this case Kimi is getting credit and Bottas no credit.

So you were trying to flip it around? It couldn't possibly be that truth is somewhere in the middle?

No I wasn't trying to flip it around that Bottas had done better than Kimi.

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motorfinger
PostPosted: Tue Jan 15, 2019 12:36 pm 
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pokerman wrote:
motorfinger wrote:
Johnson wrote:
Kimi had a "good season" relative to some of the poor ones he has had recently like 2014,2015 and 2017... if you are judging him against the best, Kimi had a poor season. But the bar for Kimi now is much lower and relative to the level he has been at the last few seasons - he had a good year.

But Vettel making many errors still beat him and was quicker 85% of the time. If Vettel didn't make so many errors, Kimi would have been thrashed.

Trashed is a bit too much, as is your percentage assessment. Vettel had ZERO technical retirements, Kimi 4. No one is denying that Vettel was still quicker of the two, some are eager to exaggerate the gap though. Kimi had a solid season, quali mistakes were still there, as was lack of a first lap aggression, but he wasn't massively slower then Vettel, in fact i would say 17 - 4 quali score doesn't do justice to Kimis pace.

I would say that 17-4 perfectly illustrates the gulf in performance.

Gulf, of course, you wouldn't have it any other way. :) Actual gap, outliners excluded, is less then for example Dans gap to Max, yet if someone dares to state that Dan might not be "top tier", whatever that means, you willl get burned. I distinctly remember, apart from those four occasions Kimi did outqualify Seb at least as many occasions he could with a tenth of an extra pace or not making a big mistake when on course to do so. Of course the argument is that same could be said for the other side. And all that without mentioning Kimi running some older spec PU components for two thirds of the season, i have trouble believing that isn't worth anything in lap time, even if only a half a tenth.
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pokerman
PostPosted: Tue Jan 15, 2019 1:16 pm 
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motorfinger wrote:
pokerman wrote:
motorfinger wrote:
Johnson wrote:
Kimi had a "good season" relative to some of the poor ones he has had recently like 2014,2015 and 2017... if you are judging him against the best, Kimi had a poor season. But the bar for Kimi now is much lower and relative to the level he has been at the last few seasons - he had a good year.

But Vettel making many errors still beat him and was quicker 85% of the time. If Vettel didn't make so many errors, Kimi would have been thrashed.

Trashed is a bit too much, as is your percentage assessment. Vettel had ZERO technical retirements, Kimi 4. No one is denying that Vettel was still quicker of the two, some are eager to exaggerate the gap though. Kimi had a solid season, quali mistakes were still there, as was lack of a first lap aggression, but he wasn't massively slower then Vettel, in fact i would say 17 - 4 quali score doesn't do justice to Kimis pace.

I would say that 17-4 perfectly illustrates the gulf in performance.

Gulf, of course, you wouldn't have it any other way. :) Actual gap, outliners excluded, is less then for example Dans gap to Max, yet if someone dares to state that Dan might not be "top tier", whatever that means, you willl get burned. I distinctly remember, apart from those four occasions Kimi did outqualify Seb at least as many occasions he could with a tenth of an extra pace or not making a big mistake when on course to do so. Of course the argument is that same could be said for the other side. And all that without mentioning Kimi running some older spec PU components for two thirds of the season, i have trouble believing that isn't worth anything in lap time, even if only a half a tenth.

The gap between Vettel and Kimi this year is consistent with the 4 year between the two drivers, like you say the gap is similar to what we see between Verstappen and Ricciardo, however we are not comparing like for like to come to the conclusion that Kimi was as good as Ricciardo, we are talking of levels here with the notion that the Verstappen/Ricciardo partnership was a level above the Vettel/Kimi partnership.

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Zoue
PostPosted: Tue Jan 15, 2019 1:45 pm 
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motorfinger wrote:
pokerman wrote:
motorfinger wrote:
Johnson wrote:
Kimi had a "good season" relative to some of the poor ones he has had recently like 2014,2015 and 2017... if you are judging him against the best, Kimi had a poor season. But the bar for Kimi now is much lower and relative to the level he has been at the last few seasons - he had a good year.

But Vettel making many errors still beat him and was quicker 85% of the time. If Vettel didn't make so many errors, Kimi would have been thrashed.

Trashed is a bit too much, as is your percentage assessment. Vettel had ZERO technical retirements, Kimi 4. No one is denying that Vettel was still quicker of the two, some are eager to exaggerate the gap though. Kimi had a solid season, quali mistakes were still there, as was lack of a first lap aggression, but he wasn't massively slower then Vettel, in fact i would say 17 - 4 quali score doesn't do justice to Kimis pace.

I would say that 17-4 perfectly illustrates the gulf in performance.

Gulf, of course, you wouldn't have it any other way. :) Actual gap, outliners excluded, is less then for example Dans gap to Max, yet if someone dares to state that Dan might not be "top tier", whatever that means, you willl get burned. I distinctly remember, apart from those four occasions Kimi did outqualify Seb at least as many occasions he could with a tenth of an extra pace or not making a big mistake when on course to do so. Of course the argument is that same could be said for the other side. And all that without mentioning Kimi running some older spec PU components for two thirds of the season, i have trouble believing that isn't worth anything in lap time, even if only a half a tenth.

In all fairness I think it's race pace that was the biggest differentiator between Kimi and Vettel, not qualifying. Qualifying is quite a tricky one to tell accurately as Kimi had a habit of making mistakes where it counted, but I don't get the feeling he was particularly slow at all and on raw pace (errors excluded) wasn't that far off. In the race, however, Vettel was often noticeably and consistently quicker than Kimi.
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motorfinger
PostPosted: Tue Jan 15, 2019 4:31 pm 
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Zoue wrote:
motorfinger wrote:
pokerman wrote:
motorfinger wrote:
Johnson wrote:
Kimi had a "good season" relative to some of the poor ones he has had recently like 2014,2015 and 2017... if you are judging him against the best, Kimi had a poor season. But the bar for Kimi now is much lower and relative to the level he has been at the last few seasons - he had a good year.

But Vettel making many errors still beat him and was quicker 85% of the time. If Vettel didn't make so many errors, Kimi would have been thrashed.

Trashed is a bit too much, as is your percentage assessment. Vettel had ZERO technical retirements, Kimi 4. No one is denying that Vettel was still quicker of the two, some are eager to exaggerate the gap though. Kimi had a solid season, quali mistakes were still there, as was lack of a first lap aggression, but he wasn't massively slower then Vettel, in fact i would say 17 - 4 quali score doesn't do justice to Kimis pace.

I would say that 17-4 perfectly illustrates the gulf in performance.

Gulf, of course, you wouldn't have it any other way. :) Actual gap, outliners excluded, is less then for example Dans gap to Max, yet if someone dares to state that Dan might not be "top tier", whatever that means, you willl get burned. I distinctly remember, apart from those four occasions Kimi did outqualify Seb at least as many occasions he could with a tenth of an extra pace or not making a big mistake when on course to do so. Of course the argument is that same could be said for the other side. And all that without mentioning Kimi running some older spec PU components for two thirds of the season, i have trouble believing that isn't worth anything in lap time, even if only a half a tenth.

In all fairness I think it's race pace that was the biggest differentiator between Kimi and Vettel, not qualifying. Qualifying is quite a tricky one to tell accurately as Kimi had a habit of making mistakes where it counted, but I don't get the feeling he was particularly slow at all and on raw pace (errors excluded) wasn't that far off. In the race, however, Vettel was often noticeably and consistently quicker than Kimi.

I agree, especially in first stint he tends to lose too much ground to Vettel, his pace towards the latter stages of race gets better IMO, but by then its to late to do anything. At first i thought it mostly has to do with running quali tyres on full tanks, now it seems to me to be more about balance of car itself on full tanks.
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motorfinger
PostPosted: Tue Jan 15, 2019 4:40 pm 
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pokerman wrote:
motorfinger wrote:
pokerman wrote:
motorfinger wrote:
Johnson wrote:
Kimi had a "good season" relative to some of the poor ones he has had recently like 2014,2015 and 2017... if you are judging him against the best, Kimi had a poor season. But the bar for Kimi now is much lower and relative to the level he has been at the last few seasons - he had a good year.

But Vettel making many errors still beat him and was quicker 85% of the time. If Vettel didn't make so many errors, Kimi would have been thrashed.

Trashed is a bit too much, as is your percentage assessment. Vettel had ZERO technical retirements, Kimi 4. No one is denying that Vettel was still quicker of the two, some are eager to exaggerate the gap though. Kimi had a solid season, quali mistakes were still there, as was lack of a first lap aggression, but he wasn't massively slower then Vettel, in fact i would say 17 - 4 quali score doesn't do justice to Kimis pace.

I would say that 17-4 perfectly illustrates the gulf in performance.

Gulf, of course, you wouldn't have it any other way. :) Actual gap, outliners excluded, is less then for example Dans gap to Max, yet if someone dares to state that Dan might not be "top tier", whatever that means, you willl get burned. I distinctly remember, apart from those four occasions Kimi did outqualify Seb at least as many occasions he could with a tenth of an extra pace or not making a big mistake when on course to do so. Of course the argument is that same could be said for the other side. And all that without mentioning Kimi running some older spec PU components for two thirds of the season, i have trouble believing that isn't worth anything in lap time, even if only a half a tenth.

The gap between Vettel and Kimi this year is consistent with the 4 year between the two drivers, like you say the gap is similar to what we see between Verstappen and Ricciardo, however we are not comparing like for like to come to the conclusion that Kimi was as good as Ricciardo, we are talking of levels here with the notion that the Verstappen/Ricciardo partnership was a level above the Vettel/Kimi partnership.

The gap changed over the years, it was big in 15, in 16 almost nonexistent, big at the start of 17 , bit smaller later on in the season, in 18 something between 16 and 17. Your insistence in denying performance variation in the face of evidence is remarkable.
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Exediron
PostPosted: Tue Jan 15, 2019 9:16 pm 
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pokerman wrote:
The gap between Vettel and Kimi this year is consistent with the 4 year between the two drivers, like you say the gap is similar to what we see between Verstappen and Ricciardo, however we are not comparing like for like to come to the conclusion that Kimi was as good as Ricciardo, we are talking of levels here with the notion that the Verstappen/Ricciardo partnership was a level above the Vettel/Kimi partnership.

In the same way that 2011 was consistent with the 3 years between Button and Hamilton? The gap between Kimi and Vettel has quite obviously been higher in 2015 and 2017 and lower in 2016 and 2018, largely due to the variation in Vettel's driving. But Kimi and Vettel splitting race results in the latter half of the season is not in fact consistent with their overall average as teammates.

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pokerman
PostPosted: Wed Jan 16, 2019 2:58 am 
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motorfinger wrote:
pokerman wrote:
motorfinger wrote:
pokerman wrote:
motorfinger wrote:
Trashed is a bit too much, as is your percentage assessment. Vettel had ZERO technical retirements, Kimi 4. No one is denying that Vettel was still quicker of the two, some are eager to exaggerate the gap though. Kimi had a solid season, quali mistakes were still there, as was lack of a first lap aggression, but he wasn't massively slower then Vettel, in fact i would say 17 - 4 quali score doesn't do justice to Kimis pace.

I would say that 17-4 perfectly illustrates the gulf in performance.

Gulf, of course, you wouldn't have it any other way. :) Actual gap, outliners excluded, is less then for example Dans gap to Max, yet if someone dares to state that Dan might not be "top tier", whatever that means, you willl get burned. I distinctly remember, apart from those four occasions Kimi did outqualify Seb at least as many occasions he could with a tenth of an extra pace or not making a big mistake when on course to do so. Of course the argument is that same could be said for the other side. And all that without mentioning Kimi running some older spec PU components for two thirds of the season, i have trouble believing that isn't worth anything in lap time, even if only a half a tenth.

The gap between Vettel and Kimi this year is consistent with the 4 year between the two drivers, like you say the gap is similar to what we see between Verstappen and Ricciardo, however we are not comparing like for like to come to the conclusion that Kimi was as good as Ricciardo, we are talking of levels here with the notion that the Verstappen/Ricciardo partnership was a level above the Vettel/Kimi partnership.

The gap changed over the years, it was big in 15, in 16 almost nonexistent, big at the start of 17 , bit smaller later on in the season, in 18 something between 16 and 17. Your insistence in denying performance variation in the face of evidence is remarkable.

The 4 year average is almost identical to the 2018 average so what happened in 2018 was about normal so Kimi didn't close any kind of gap to Vettel.

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pokerman
PostPosted: Wed Jan 16, 2019 3:04 am 
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Exediron wrote:
pokerman wrote:
The gap between Vettel and Kimi this year is consistent with the 4 year between the two drivers, like you say the gap is similar to what we see between Verstappen and Ricciardo, however we are not comparing like for like to come to the conclusion that Kimi was as good as Ricciardo, we are talking of levels here with the notion that the Verstappen/Ricciardo partnership was a level above the Vettel/Kimi partnership.

In the same way that 2011 was consistent with the 3 years between Button and Hamilton? The gap between Kimi and Vettel has quite obviously been higher in 2015 and 2017 and lower in 2016 and 2018, largely due to the variation in Vettel's driving. But Kimi and Vettel splitting race results in the latter half of the season is not in fact consistent with their overall average as teammates.

Hamilton was just as fast in 2011 but the constant crashing didn't help coupled with the horrendous cheese tyres, likewise with Vettel the constant crashing in the second half of 2018 enabled Kimi to share the results or though in this case that was the only reason otherwise is there one race were Kimi finishes in front based purely on speed?

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Exediron
PostPosted: Wed Jan 16, 2019 4:11 am 
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pokerman wrote:
Exediron wrote:
pokerman wrote:
The gap between Vettel and Kimi this year is consistent with the 4 year between the two drivers, like you say the gap is similar to what we see between Verstappen and Ricciardo, however we are not comparing like for like to come to the conclusion that Kimi was as good as Ricciardo, we are talking of levels here with the notion that the Verstappen/Ricciardo partnership was a level above the Vettel/Kimi partnership.

In the same way that 2011 was consistent with the 3 years between Button and Hamilton? The gap between Kimi and Vettel has quite obviously been higher in 2015 and 2017 and lower in 2016 and 2018, largely due to the variation in Vettel's driving. But Kimi and Vettel splitting race results in the latter half of the season is not in fact consistent with their overall average as teammates.

Hamilton was just as fast in 2011 but the constant crashing didn't help coupled with the horrendous cheese tyres, likewise with Vettel the constant crashing in the second half of 2018 enabled Kimi to share the results or though in this case that was the only reason otherwise is there one race were Kimi finishes in front based purely on speed?

If you want to look purely at speed then Grand Prix racing isn't the right sport for that. Not making mistakes is an important part of being a race driver, and Vettel wasn't doing it. Kimi usually beat him because he messed up, true, but Kimi wasn't messing up in those races.

As for races where Kimi was simply faster, probably just Brazil.

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motorfinger
PostPosted: Wed Jan 16, 2019 10:36 am 
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@pokerman
What about 2016?. You are so fixed on putting these insurmountable (and precisely determined) gaps between certain drivers.
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motorfinger
PostPosted: Wed Jan 16, 2019 10:46 am 
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Exediron wrote:
pokerman wrote:
The gap between Vettel and Kimi this year is consistent with the 4 year between the two drivers, like you say the gap is similar to what we see between Verstappen and Ricciardo, however we are not comparing like for like to come to the conclusion that Kimi was as good as Ricciardo, we are talking of levels here with the notion that the Verstappen/Ricciardo partnership was a level above the Vettel/Kimi partnership.

In the same way that 2011 was consistent with the 3 years between Button and Hamilton? The gap between Kimi and Vettel has quite obviously been higher in 2015 and 2017 and lower in 2016 and 2018, largely due to the variation in Vettel's driving. But Kimi and Vettel splitting race results in the latter half of the season is not in fact consistent with their overall average as teammates.

When it comes to qualifing pace, variation is largely down to difference in cars and tyres. Obviously at certain times Kimi was able to be closer to Vettel then at others. Apart from number of mistakes he made, i dont think Vettels driving changed that much over the years.
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pokerman
PostPosted: Wed Jan 16, 2019 1:34 pm 
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Exediron wrote:
pokerman wrote:
Exediron wrote:
pokerman wrote:
The gap between Vettel and Kimi this year is consistent with the 4 year between the two drivers, like you say the gap is similar to what we see between Verstappen and Ricciardo, however we are not comparing like for like to come to the conclusion that Kimi was as good as Ricciardo, we are talking of levels here with the notion that the Verstappen/Ricciardo partnership was a level above the Vettel/Kimi partnership.

In the same way that 2011 was consistent with the 3 years between Button and Hamilton? The gap between Kimi and Vettel has quite obviously been higher in 2015 and 2017 and lower in 2016 and 2018, largely due to the variation in Vettel's driving. But Kimi and Vettel splitting race results in the latter half of the season is not in fact consistent with their overall average as teammates.

Hamilton was just as fast in 2011 but the constant crashing didn't help coupled with the horrendous cheese tyres, likewise with Vettel the constant crashing in the second half of 2018 enabled Kimi to share the results or though in this case that was the only reason otherwise is there one race were Kimi finishes in front based purely on speed?

If you want to look purely at speed then Grand Prix racing isn't the right sport for that. Not making mistakes is an important part of being a race driver, and Vettel wasn't doing it. Kimi usually beat him because he messed up, true, but Kimi wasn't messing up in those races.

As for races where Kimi was simply faster, probably just Brazil.

However what actually happened contradicts what you are saying, Ferrari kept the hare and let go the tortoise.

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pokerman
PostPosted: Wed Jan 16, 2019 1:35 pm 
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motorfinger wrote:
@pokerman
What about 2016?. You are so fixed on putting these insurmountable (and precisely determined) gaps between certain drivers.

Your point would be apt if you was talking about 2016 and saying how much better Kimi was.

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Exediron
PostPosted: Thu Jan 17, 2019 12:12 am 
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pokerman wrote:
Exediron wrote:
pokerman wrote:
Exediron wrote:
pokerman wrote:
The gap between Vettel and Kimi this year is consistent with the 4 year between the two drivers, like you say the gap is similar to what we see between Verstappen and Ricciardo, however we are not comparing like for like to come to the conclusion that Kimi was as good as Ricciardo, we are talking of levels here with the notion that the Verstappen/Ricciardo partnership was a level above the Vettel/Kimi partnership.

In the same way that 2011 was consistent with the 3 years between Button and Hamilton? The gap between Kimi and Vettel has quite obviously been higher in 2015 and 2017 and lower in 2016 and 2018, largely due to the variation in Vettel's driving. But Kimi and Vettel splitting race results in the latter half of the season is not in fact consistent with their overall average as teammates.

Hamilton was just as fast in 2011 but the constant crashing didn't help coupled with the horrendous cheese tyres, likewise with Vettel the constant crashing in the second half of 2018 enabled Kimi to share the results or though in this case that was the only reason otherwise is there one race were Kimi finishes in front based purely on speed?

If you want to look purely at speed then Grand Prix racing isn't the right sport for that. Not making mistakes is an important part of being a race driver, and Vettel wasn't doing it. Kimi usually beat him because he messed up, true, but Kimi wasn't messing up in those races.

As for races where Kimi was simply faster, probably just Brazil.

However what actually happened contradicts what you are saying, Ferrari kept the hare and let go the tortoise.

How does it contradict what I'm saying? I'm saying that Kimi was closer to Vettel in 2018 because Vettel was making a lot of mistakes. Why does Kimi being let go contradict that in any way?

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pokerman
PostPosted: Thu Jan 17, 2019 2:25 am 
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Exediron wrote:
pokerman wrote:
Exediron wrote:
pokerman wrote:
Exediron wrote:
In the same way that 2011 was consistent with the 3 years between Button and Hamilton? The gap between Kimi and Vettel has quite obviously been higher in 2015 and 2017 and lower in 2016 and 2018, largely due to the variation in Vettel's driving. But Kimi and Vettel splitting race results in the latter half of the season is not in fact consistent with their overall average as teammates.

Hamilton was just as fast in 2011 but the constant crashing didn't help coupled with the horrendous cheese tyres, likewise with Vettel the constant crashing in the second half of 2018 enabled Kimi to share the results or though in this case that was the only reason otherwise is there one race were Kimi finishes in front based purely on speed?

If you want to look purely at speed then Grand Prix racing isn't the right sport for that. Not making mistakes is an important part of being a race driver, and Vettel wasn't doing it. Kimi usually beat him because he messed up, true, but Kimi wasn't messing up in those races.

As for races where Kimi was simply faster, probably just Brazil.

However what actually happened contradicts what you are saying, Ferrari kept the hare and let go the tortoise.

How does it contradict what I'm saying? I'm saying that Kimi was closer to Vettel in 2018 because Vettel was making a lot of mistakes. Why does Kimi being let go contradict that in any way?

I was replying to what you said here.

Quote:
If you want to look purely at speed then Grand Prix racing isn't the right sport for that

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TheGiantHogweed
PostPosted: Sat Mar 16, 2019 8:11 am 
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I think he has bounced back - to start with. But the speed he had today looked a lot better than the start of last season, so that hopefully will help with his confidence. That first lap in Q3 was excellent. He went on to improve it to, but as who is probably the best qualifier out there usually does, he did what he needed to and was faster in the end. But only by a fraction over a tenth of a second. I still have this feeling that Bottas is going to be able to do enough to keep his seat at Mercedes next year.
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Invade
PostPosted: Sat Mar 16, 2019 8:22 am 
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TheGiantHogweed wrote:
I think he has bounced back - to start with. But the speed he had today looked a lot better than the start of last season, so that hopefully will help with his confidence. That first lap in Q3 was excellent. He went on to improve it to, but as who is probably the best qualifier out there usually does, he did what he needed to and was faster in the end. But only by a fraction over a tenth of a second. I still have this feeling that Bottas is going to be able to do enough to keep his seat at Mercedes next year.



He has Hamilton's major backing too. Could help, though Ocon is looking quite cosy with the team in all the shots they keep providing of him. :twisted:
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TheGiantHogweed
PostPosted: Sat Mar 16, 2019 8:28 am 
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Invade wrote:
TheGiantHogweed wrote:
I think he has bounced back - to start with. But the speed he had today looked a lot better than the start of last season, so that hopefully will help with his confidence. That first lap in Q3 was excellent. He went on to improve it to, but as who is probably the best qualifier out there usually does, he did what he needed to and was faster in the end. But only by a fraction over a tenth of a second. I still have this feeling that Bottas is going to be able to do enough to keep his seat at Mercedes next year.



He has Hamilton's major backing too. Could help, though Ocon is looking quite cosy with the team in all the shots they keep providing of him. :twisted:

The other thing i notice is that toto only seems to look happy if Hamilton is on top. Coundn't describe him as looking happy when they are 1 - 2 with Bottas on top. That happened when Bottas got pole a few times i think.
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DOLOMITE
PostPosted: Sat Mar 16, 2019 9:45 am 
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Hopefully he will have a better season than last year. But however much he has reset, refocused or whatever, he won't beat Hamilton. I just don't see anything from the last couple of years that suggests that Bottas at his best is better than Lewis.

Only consolation is I guess I would have said the same about Rosberg in '15...

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TheGiantHogweed
PostPosted: Sat Mar 16, 2019 9:51 am 
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DOLOMITE wrote:
Hopefully he will have a better season than last year. But however much he has reset, refocused or whatever, he won't beat Hamilton. I just don't see anything from the last couple of years that suggests that Bottas at his best is better than Lewis.

Only consolation is I guess I would have said the same about Rosberg in '15...

I don't expect him to beat Hamilton either. But I wuldn't say he won't beat Hamilton. If they are dominant and luck goes his way, it is certainly possible. Without good fortune, very unlikely.
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mikeyg123
PostPosted: Sat Mar 16, 2019 10:20 am 
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TheGiantHogweed wrote:
Invade wrote:
TheGiantHogweed wrote:
I think he has bounced back - to start with. But the speed he had today looked a lot better than the start of last season, so that hopefully will help with his confidence. That first lap in Q3 was excellent. He went on to improve it to, but as who is probably the best qualifier out there usually does, he did what he needed to and was faster in the end. But only by a fraction over a tenth of a second. I still have this feeling that Bottas is going to be able to do enough to keep his seat at Mercedes next year.



He has Hamilton's major backing too. Could help, though Ocon is looking quite cosy with the team in all the shots they keep providing of him. :twisted:

The other thing i notice is that toto only seems to look happy if Hamilton is on top. Coundn't describe him as looking happy when they are 1 - 2 with Bottas on top. That happened when Bottas got pole a few times i think.


Bottas is a Toto man through and through.
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Exediron
PostPosted: Sat Mar 16, 2019 8:04 pm 
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mikeyg123 wrote:
TheGiantHogweed wrote:
The other thing i notice is that toto only seems to look happy if Hamilton is on top. Coundn't describe him as looking happy when they are 1 - 2 with Bottas on top. That happened when Bottas got pole a few times i think.

Bottas is a Toto man through and through.

Bottas may be a Toto man, but is Toto a Bottas man?

I agree with TheGiantHogweed's impression. Throughout qualifying in Melbourne, Wolff only looked happy when Hamilton took the top position from Bottas.

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Mort Canard
PostPosted: Sat Mar 16, 2019 9:24 pm 
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My question is whether qualifying an average of two tenths of a second back from Lewis is enough for Valtteri to keep his seat in 2020? I am thinking that if he does not end up with only a few less poles than Lewis and he does not finish on the podium more often than not, he will be replaced with Esteban Ocon next year.

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sandman1347
PostPosted: Sat Mar 16, 2019 9:33 pm 
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Mort Canard wrote:
My question is whether qualifying an average of two tenths of a second back from Lewis is enough for Valtteri to keep his seat in 2020? I am thinking that if he does not end up with only a few less poles than Lewis and he does not finish on the podium more often than not, he will be replaced with Esteban Ocon next year.

I'm not sure why that would be the case. I don't see any reason to assume Ocon would do any better and I don't see any reason for Mercedes to rock the boat if they continue winning the championships.

I'd like to see Ocon back on the grid but if Valteri keeps performing similarly to how he did today, it won't be with Mercedes. Maybe Esteban should give Haas a call. They have a great car and their drivers are holding them back.
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Exediron
PostPosted: Sat Mar 16, 2019 9:52 pm 
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sandman1347 wrote:
Mort Canard wrote:
My question is whether qualifying an average of two tenths of a second back from Lewis is enough for Valtteri to keep his seat in 2020? I am thinking that if he does not end up with only a few less poles than Lewis and he does not finish on the podium more often than not, he will be replaced with Esteban Ocon next year.

I'm not sure why that would be the case. I don't see any reason to assume Ocon would do any better and I don't see any reason for Mercedes to rock the boat if they continue winning the championships.

I'd like to see Ocon back on the grid but if Valteri keeps performing similarly to how he did today, it won't be with Mercedes. Maybe Esteban should give Haas a call. They have a great car and their drivers are holding them back.

Yeah, Bottas did his job today. It's the days when he's floundering at the back of the top six while Lewis wins that his seat looks in trouble. If he can keep putting the Ferraris and Red Bulls behind him, no reason for a change.

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Lt. Drebin
PostPosted: Sun Mar 17, 2019 6:53 am 
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Impressive and somewhat not anticipated. Hats off to the guy!

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j man
PostPosted: Sun Mar 17, 2019 6:56 am 
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Lt. Drebin wrote:
Impressive and somewhat not anticipated. Hats off to the guy!

:thumbup:

He beat Hamilton fair and square, and quite convincingly too. But doing it consistently is another matter.
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TheGiantHogweed
PostPosted: Sun Mar 17, 2019 7:04 am 
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His beard seems to have got him up to speed! :D
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Lt. Drebin
PostPosted: Sun Mar 17, 2019 7:10 am 
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TheGiantHogweed wrote:
His beard seems to have got him up to speed! :D

Illegal moving aerodynamic device? :lol:

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JN23
PostPosted: Sun Mar 17, 2019 7:38 am 
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Well be couldn't have had a better start to the season. Impressive pace all weekend and a dominant win. Very happy got him.
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Underviewer
PostPosted: Sun Mar 17, 2019 4:05 pm 
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TheGiantHogweed wrote:
His beard seems to have got him up to speed! :D


The beard is interesting. When I saw he had it I felt it was part of a bigger change he'd made. It doesn't seem the kind of beard grown to be trendy, as a challenge or as a joke. It's the beard of a man who means business. I think he's come into this season feeling more assertive and the beard is part it. He said he was going to beat everyone and he certainly did today.
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TheBlackFlag
PostPosted: Sun Mar 17, 2019 5:24 pm 
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Apparently, "yes"
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Mort Canard
PostPosted: Sun Mar 17, 2019 10:49 pm 
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Exediron wrote:
sandman1347 wrote:
Mort Canard wrote:
My question is whether qualifying an average of two tenths of a second back from Lewis is enough for Valtteri to keep his seat in 2020? I am thinking that if he does not end up with only a few less poles than Lewis and he does not finish on the podium more often than not, he will be replaced with Esteban Ocon next year.

I'm not sure why that would be the case. I don't see any reason to assume Ocon would do any better and I don't see any reason for Mercedes to rock the boat if they continue winning the championships.

I'd like to see Ocon back on the grid but if Valteri keeps performing similarly to how he did today, it won't be with Mercedes. Maybe Esteban should give Haas a call. They have a great car and their drivers are holding them back.

Yeah, Bottas did his job today. It's the days when he's floundering at the back of the top six while Lewis wins that his seat looks in trouble. If he can keep putting the Ferraris and Red Bulls behind him, no reason for a change.


I would say that his qualifying performance didn't do much for his retaining the seat in 2020. Valtteri's performance in the race today did a lot to keep the seat.

We know that Toto desperately wants to get Esteban a quality ride. Valtteri is not the next Lewis Hamilton with some work the much younger Esteban Ocon could be. Merc is going for a very young driver for the same reason that Ferrari went with Charles Leclerc. They want to line up a much younger championship caliber driver in the wings to eventually replace their current number 1 driver.

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TheGiantHogweed
PostPosted: Mon Mar 18, 2019 10:06 pm 
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https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=BvGRws4dAxY
https://www.racefans.net/2019/03/17/bot ... ontaneous/

I never heard the full radio by Bottas until now. Man he really has changed. This aggression i feel is going to help him a lot this season. I don't think this race is a one off in terms of a great performance by him.
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mikeyg123
PostPosted: Mon Mar 18, 2019 10:39 pm 
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TheGiantHogweed wrote:
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=BvGRws4dAxY
https://www.racefans.net/2019/03/17/bot ... ontaneous/

I never heard the full radio by Bottas until now. Man he really has changed. This aggression i feel is going to help him a lot this season. I don't think this race is a one off in terms of a great performance by him.


The test will be if he can keep this attitude after he gets hammered by Hamilton a couple of times. Remember he started last season really well as well. Should have been leading the WDC after Baku.
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TheGiantHogweed
PostPosted: Mon Mar 18, 2019 10:56 pm 
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mikeyg123 wrote:
TheGiantHogweed wrote:
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=BvGRws4dAxY
https://www.racefans.net/2019/03/17/bot ... ontaneous/

I never heard the full radio by Bottas until now. Man he really has changed. This aggression i feel is going to help him a lot this season. I don't think this race is a one off in terms of a great performance by him.


The test will be if he can keep this attitude after he gets hammered by Hamilton a couple of times. Remember he started last season really well as well. Should have been leading the WDC after Baku.

He started badly if I'm honest if we just compare the first race, and admittedly dit lack a bit of aggression in the 2nd race near the end. So far, even looking at qualifying, he seems very different compared to the first few races of last season.

But yes, that is a point about baku. Given his bad start in Australia, the fact that he would have been leading the championship in baku without that puncture shows that he must have been pretty strong, but that did change.

But the personality change he has somehow gives me higher expectations. I feel he's a step above the start to the previous 2 seasons.
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