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 Post subject: Re: Silly Season 2020!
PostPosted: Thu May 02, 2019 7:19 am 
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Covalent wrote:
BIB; how is it a no brainer to not sign him presently?


Because A) there is no competition for his services and B) the last two years his performances have dropped after he renewed his contract.

From Mercedes perspective there is no need to get the deal done now.


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 Post subject: Re: Silly Season 2020!
PostPosted: Thu May 02, 2019 11:48 am 
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mikeyg123 wrote:
pokerman wrote:
UnlikeUday wrote:
@mcdo - If this did happen, it could be in mid 2018 when Bottas started to struggle. I don't think they approached Max before Bottas as Toto kind of panicked when Rosberg announced his retirement & since Toto was Bottas' manager as well, he chose Bottas in an eye blink.

No 2017, maybe for the 2019 season, Bottas had already signed to Mercedes for 2018, I think Verstappen may have had a get out clause in the final season of his initial contract?

https://www.motorsport.com/f1/news/vers ... 0/3053198/

Rumours were that this had been done to stave off interest from Mercedes.


Wasn't it also rumoured that he was fast tracked into the senior team in 2016 for the same reason?

It's possible, they were able to fast track him into F1 with STR in the first place because of interest from Mercedes, basically they've probably been able to use Mercedes as a bargaining tool throughout the process.

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Wins: Canada 2018, Abu Dhabi 2017
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 Post subject: Re: Silly Season 2020!
PostPosted: Thu May 02, 2019 11:57 am 
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Covalent wrote:
pokerman wrote:
Jezza13 wrote:
mikeyg123 wrote:
pokerman wrote:
No that comes across as being different as in Mercedes making the decision to replace Hamilton with Verstappen regardless of what Hamilton intends to do.


That may happen. Look at how Schumacher ended at Ferrari. Merc can't afford for Hamilton to do a Rosberg and leave them without a top driver.


I could be wrong but wasn't retirement Schumachers choice though because he was against Raikkonen joining the team?

Thinking of the Merc future, to me, it'd make sense to punt Bottas at years end, bring in Ocon for a season to see how he measures up against Hamilton.

If Hamilton retires at the end of 2020, which I think's quite possible, Merc can then make an informed choice as to which direction they'd take. If they see that maybe Ocon is more a Webber / Coulthard type driver as opposed to a Vettel / Hamilton type, that'd still leave room for then to chase a big name & i'd put a million on it that Verstappen would be top of their list & rightly so.

Kimi was signed by Ferrari in 2005 I believe, because Schumacher was stalling on a new contract, he was thinking about retirement, if you remember 2005 was a bad season for Ferrari which maybe had something to do with Schumacher's thinking?

Anyway the signing of Kimi kind of ensured Schumacher was going to retire because it was going to be the end of the Ferrari #1, #2 driver policy which was the set up that Schumacher basically wanted.

Regarding Mercedes presently it would be a no brainer to not sign Bottas for 2020 but we've seen what's happened the past 2 years with Bottas when they have done that, my guess is that they will wait until around September and it will be based on how Bottas is performing rather than a need to evaluate Ocon and the need to plan for Hamilton's successor.

BIB; how is it a no brainer to not sign him presently?

Maybe I worded that wrong, I meant on present form Mercedes should sign Bottas but then threw in the caveats why they will wait.

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PF1 Pick 10 Competition

2013: 5th Place
2014: Champion
2015: 3rd Place
2016: 4th Place

2017: 9th Place
2018: 7th place
2019: Currently 34th

Wins: Canada 2018, Abu Dhabi 2017
Podiums: (6)


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 Post subject: Re: Silly Season 2020!
PostPosted: Thu May 02, 2019 12:18 pm 
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pokerman wrote:
Covalent wrote:
pokerman wrote:
Jezza13 wrote:
mikeyg123 wrote:

That may happen. Look at how Schumacher ended at Ferrari. Merc can't afford for Hamilton to do a Rosberg and leave them without a top driver.


I could be wrong but wasn't retirement Schumachers choice though because he was against Raikkonen joining the team?

Thinking of the Merc future, to me, it'd make sense to punt Bottas at years end, bring in Ocon for a season to see how he measures up against Hamilton.

If Hamilton retires at the end of 2020, which I think's quite possible, Merc can then make an informed choice as to which direction they'd take. If they see that maybe Ocon is more a Webber / Coulthard type driver as opposed to a Vettel / Hamilton type, that'd still leave room for then to chase a big name & i'd put a million on it that Verstappen would be top of their list & rightly so.

Kimi was signed by Ferrari in 2005 I believe, because Schumacher was stalling on a new contract, he was thinking about retirement, if you remember 2005 was a bad season for Ferrari which maybe had something to do with Schumacher's thinking?

Anyway the signing of Kimi kind of ensured Schumacher was going to retire because it was going to be the end of the Ferrari #1, #2 driver policy which was the set up that Schumacher basically wanted.

Regarding Mercedes presently it would be a no brainer to not sign Bottas for 2020 but we've seen what's happened the past 2 years with Bottas when they have done that, my guess is that they will wait until around September and it will be based on how Bottas is performing rather than a need to evaluate Ocon and the need to plan for Hamilton's successor.

BIB; how is it a no brainer to not sign him presently?

Maybe I worded that wrong, I meant on present form Mercedes should sign Bottas but then threw in the caveats why they will wait.

Ah, gotcha.

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 Post subject: Re: Silly Season 2020!
PostPosted: Mon May 06, 2019 12:26 am 
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Ferrari and Renault will keep their drivers as is. Kimi will stay at Alfa, most likely still alongside Giovinazzi as I don't see Schumacher finishing high enough in F2 to get his Superlicense next year. Red Bull (and by extension Toro Rosso), who knows? I wouldn't be shocked if they dropped Gasly; I'd also not be shocked if they didn't drop Gasly. Guessing their driver moves is a fool's game. I don't see Gasly getting a great deal closer to Max but then again would Albon (or Kvyat)? And if they did promote one, does Gasly drop back down to Toro Rosso? Does Ticktum get a chance if he's got his Superlicense? Gun to my head I'd say they stick with what they've got and see where things stand this time next year.

That leaves Mercedes plus Haas/Racing Point/McLaren/Williams, a foursome for whom I feel it all hinges on Mercedes. Lewis will still be there, probably looking to equal Schumacher's 7 WDCs. If Bottas keeps driving like he has then it becomes an easier decision for Mercedes to retain him, at which point Ocon becomes available, while if Bottas' form trails off then he could get dropped for Ocon. Either way I think one of them is going to be free from Mercedes at the end of 2019.

From McLaren's point of view I'd argue that Bottas definitely represents an upgrade on Sainz while Ocon most likely does, but right now it's difficult to know if they'd be looking to change drivers since they've had a positive start to the season. Can't see them dropping Norris. There's always the Alonso factor too, but I don't think they've improved enough to entice him back for 2020. Racing Point is interesting since Perez is the better driver but Stroll isn't going to be dropped. I don't think they'd drop Perez for Ocon but if Bottas became available, I'd be curious to see if they were interested and whether they would drop Perez. Haas, if they're smart they'll wait and see what happens elsewhere and then decide. Their line-up would be improved by basically any of those names potentially available: Bottas, Ocon, Perez or Sainz.

Which just leaves Williams, who you would hope would be Russell plus whoever the best driver left is, but will probably be Russell plus whoever the driver with the best combination of talent and money is. I reckon it'll end up being Latifi, FWIW.

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 Post subject: Re: Silly Season 2020!
PostPosted: Mon May 06, 2019 7:11 am 
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Joined: Mon Mar 26, 2012 10:39 am
Posts: 25092
Jenson's Understeer wrote:
Ferrari and Renault will keep their drivers as is. Kimi will stay at Alfa, most likely still alongside Giovinazzi as I don't see Schumacher finishing high enough in F2 to get his Superlicense next year. Red Bull (and by extension Toro Rosso), who knows? I wouldn't be shocked if they dropped Gasly; I'd also not be shocked if they didn't drop Gasly. Guessing their driver moves is a fool's game. I don't see Gasly getting a great deal closer to Max but then again would Albon (or Kvyat)? And if they did promote one, does Gasly drop back down to Toro Rosso? Does Ticktum get a chance if he's got his Superlicense? Gun to my head I'd say they stick with what they've got and see where things stand this time next year.

That leaves Mercedes plus Haas/Racing Point/McLaren/Williams, a foursome for whom I feel it all hinges on Mercedes. Lewis will still be there, probably looking to equal Schumacher's 7 WDCs. If Bottas keeps driving like he has then it becomes an easier decision for Mercedes to retain him, at which point Ocon becomes available, while if Bottas' form trails off then he could get dropped for Ocon. Either way I think one of them is going to be free from Mercedes at the end of 2019.

From McLaren's point of view I'd argue that Bottas definitely represents an upgrade on Sainz while Ocon most likely does, but right now it's difficult to know if they'd be looking to change drivers since they've had a positive start to the season. Can't see them dropping Norris. There's always the Alonso factor too, but I don't think they've improved enough to entice him back for 2020. Racing Point is interesting since Perez is the better driver but Stroll isn't going to be dropped. I don't think they'd drop Perez for Ocon but if Bottas became available, I'd be curious to see if they were interested and whether they would drop Perez. Haas, if they're smart they'll wait and see what happens elsewhere and then decide. Their line-up would be improved by basically any of those names potentially available: Bottas, Ocon, Perez or Sainz.

Which just leaves Williams, who you would hope would be Russell plus whoever the best driver left is, but will probably be Russell plus whoever the driver with the best combination of talent and money is. I reckon it'll end up being Latifi, FWIW.

Agree with your first paragraph and most of the big teams will likely be sticking with what they have and whether Gasly stays or not depends on whether he turns things around. I'm not sure I'd agree that Bottas would be an upgrade on Sainz, though, and I think it likely that Sainz will stay on there, together with Norris. The fly in the ointment might be Alonso coming back - while I agree that McLaren haven't yet improved to the level Alonso would be comfortable with, if they can show enough progress through the season and look to be beating the rest of the midfield - and Renault in particular - then he might be tempted. I suspect he knows that the doors to all the other big teams are firmly welded shut for him and if he does ever want to return to F1 - and I strongly suspect he feels he has unfinished business there - then McLaren or Renault are virtually his only shots and he might feel that he can make a difference in the leading midfield team to return to some glory.

In short I think it's going to be a relatively dull silly season as all the top teams will remain reasonably static.


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 Post subject: Re: Silly Season 2020!
PostPosted: Mon May 06, 2019 8:49 am 
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Doesn't Sainz have a two year deal? I think the key to any moves will be the Merc second seat and Haas. The drivers available in the midfield mean Haas could seriously upgrade.


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 Post subject: Re: Silly Season 2020!
PostPosted: Mon May 06, 2019 8:57 am 
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mikeyg123 wrote:
Doesn't Sainz have a two year deal? I think the key to any moves will be the Merc second seat and Haas. The drivers available in the midfield mean Haas could seriously upgrade.

I think Haas' biggest problem is that their car is terrible at the moment: they just can't get it to work on the tyres so the drivers can't really show anything.


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 Post subject: Re: Silly Season 2020!
PostPosted: Mon May 06, 2019 9:00 am 
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Zoue wrote:
mikeyg123 wrote:
Doesn't Sainz have a two year deal? I think the key to any moves will be the Merc second seat and Haas. The drivers available in the midfield mean Haas could seriously upgrade.

I think Haas' biggest problem is that their car is terrible at the moment: they just can't get it to work on the tyres so the drivers can't really show anything.


Yeah but unless you think you're never going to sort that issue you should try to bring in the best drivers you can. I think any of Perez, Bottas or Ocon would be an upgrade on either of their drivers.

I also think there is a slim possibility for Ocon at STR if Merc let him go.


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 Post subject: Re: Silly Season 2020!
PostPosted: Mon May 06, 2019 10:55 am 
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Jenson's Understeer wrote:
Ferrari and Renault will keep their drivers as is. Kimi will stay at Alfa, most likely still alongside Giovinazzi as I don't see Schumacher finishing high enough in F2 to get his Superlicense next year. Red Bull (and by extension Toro Rosso), who knows? I wouldn't be shocked if they dropped Gasly; I'd also not be shocked if they didn't drop Gasly. Guessing their driver moves is a fool's game. I don't see Gasly getting a great deal closer to Max but then again would Albon (or Kvyat)? And if they did promote one, does Gasly drop back down to Toro Rosso? Does Ticktum get a chance if he's got his Superlicense? Gun to my head I'd say they stick with what they've got and see where things stand this time next year.

That leaves Mercedes plus Haas/Racing Point/McLaren/Williams, a foursome for whom I feel it all hinges on Mercedes. Lewis will still be there, probably looking to equal Schumacher's 7 WDCs. If Bottas keeps driving like he has then it becomes an easier decision for Mercedes to retain him, at which point Ocon becomes available, while if Bottas' form trails off then he could get dropped for Ocon. Either way I think one of them is going to be free from Mercedes at the end of 2019.

From McLaren's point of view I'd argue that Bottas definitely represents an upgrade on Sainz while Ocon most likely does, but right now it's difficult to know if they'd be looking to change drivers since they've had a positive start to the season. Can't see them dropping Norris. There's always the Alonso factor too, but I don't think they've improved enough to entice him back for 2020. Racing Point is interesting since Perez is the better driver but Stroll isn't going to be dropped. I don't think they'd drop Perez for Ocon but if Bottas became available, I'd be curious to see if they were interested and whether they would drop Perez. Haas, if they're smart they'll wait and see what happens elsewhere and then decide. Their line-up would be improved by basically any of those names potentially available: Bottas, Ocon, Perez or Sainz.

Which just leaves Williams, who you would hope would be Russell plus whoever the best driver left is, but will probably be Russell plus whoever the driver with the best combination of talent and money is. I reckon it'll end up being Latifi, FWIW.

I agree with Ferrari and Renault, I don't see Schumacher being ready for 2020 so see Alfa as staying the same as well. At Red Bull it's too early to be writing off Gasly who let's not forget had a good race in Baku and would have qualified well if not for his silly mistake with the weighbridge. For the junior drivers Ticktum's first outing in Japan wasn't great so he may not get a F1 super license, so the STR line up may remain the same?

For Mercedes it depends upon Bottas himself whoever misses out between Bottas and Ocon like you say whoever Mercedes let go should be able to find another seat in F1, I would be looking more at Haas rather than McLaren. I don't understand the idea that perhaps that Sainz is not performing in respect to Norris, I expect this line up to remain the same as I don't see Alonso back in F1 in 2020, McLaren are still not at that level to entice him back.

Racing Point will remain the same, Perez is one of the best midfield drivers and also brings money for the team, in respect to Perez for him the team now has great potential giving the backing it now has and can become the best of the midfield teams so why leave, then we have Stroll who is not really good enough for the seat but his Dad owns the team.

Haas as I've already mentioned would surely take either Bottas and Ocon to replace one of their drivers, I would also like to see an American based driver in one of the cars but that's more what I would like to see than what will probably will happen. Then there is Williams which will be Russell plus a driver with a pot of gold, possibly Latifi who's Father is mega rich and Latifi is presently doing well in F2, he's leading, and looks like he will get the necessary F1 super license points.

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PF1 Pick 10 Competition

2013: 5th Place
2014: Champion
2015: 3rd Place
2016: 4th Place

2017: 9th Place
2018: 7th place
2019: Currently 34th

Wins: Canada 2018, Abu Dhabi 2017
Podiums: (6)


Last edited by pokerman on Mon May 06, 2019 11:00 am, edited 2 times in total.

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 Post subject: Re: Silly Season 2020!
PostPosted: Mon May 06, 2019 10:57 am 
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mikeyg123 wrote:
Zoue wrote:
mikeyg123 wrote:
Doesn't Sainz have a two year deal? I think the key to any moves will be the Merc second seat and Haas. The drivers available in the midfield mean Haas could seriously upgrade.

I think Haas' biggest problem is that their car is terrible at the moment: they just can't get it to work on the tyres so the drivers can't really show anything.


Yeah but unless you think you're never going to sort that issue you should try to bring in the best drivers you can. I think any of Perez, Bottas or Ocon would be an upgrade on either of their drivers.

I also think there is a slim possibility for Ocon at STR if Merc let him go.

Good shout I'd not thought of that.

_________________
PF1 Pick 10 Competition

2013: 5th Place
2014: Champion
2015: 3rd Place
2016: 4th Place

2017: 9th Place
2018: 7th place
2019: Currently 34th

Wins: Canada 2018, Abu Dhabi 2017
Podiums: (6)


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