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F1 Racer
 Post subject: Re: Silly Season 2020!
PostPosted: Sun Jul 07, 2019 5:29 pm 
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Posts: 554
mikeyg123 wrote:
F1 Racer wrote:


No, I don't remember the front row starts but that was probably because he didn't do anything special to turn them into results, not that those qualifying results were not decent in and of themselves of course. However I remember Barrichello getting pole in a Jordan at Belgium 1994 and Fisichella getting pole in Austria 1998, so the odd shock with a driver qualifying uncharacteristically high can happen, but they never seem to convert the good qualifying into a good result etc. And remember that Fisichella and Barrichello weren't bad drivers, they were very competent and Ocon likely is too, but what we can safely say about Ocon is that he is not top tier, so he is not needed anymore. We can be 99.9% sure that he is not top tier, and that is more than enough certainty.

There are other drivers in F1 history that were competent but weren't able to carve out long careers in the sport for one reason or another, it happens and is not a great loss to the sport when it does happen, so if Ocon is the latest 'unlucky' driver that loses his chance to become the next Hulkenberg/Perez F1 journeyman then it is no great shame. Johnny Herbert carved out a fairly lengthy career as an F1 journeyman. Were there other drivers that were slightly better than him and slightly worse than him whose F1 careers were cut short in the late 80's and early 90's and they unluckily missed out on being able to fulfill a journeyman career in the same vein as Johnny? Almost certainly there were but we do not shed a tear for them now and we did not shed a tear for them back then. They were the Ocon's back in the day and life goes on, not everyone can get what they want but the best performers, (the top tier guys), always do get that long career in the sport. Someone like Anthony Davidson was probably a competent driver that if circumstances were different he could have had a long journeyman career in F1, but he got unlucky and so as a result only got a handful of races in poor equipment and was eventually binned by the sport. However he had enough opportunity to demonstrate whether he was top tier or not, and he clearly wasn't.

Back to Ocon, the 'matching Perez' argument just adds more credence to him being competent which I am not disputing. A quick look at the points and qualifying match ups though, and Perez outscored him for points quite comfortably and qualifying was quite close over the two years combined. At best he's as good as Perez but he could be a bit worse than him. That isn't a great showing if you are hoping to convince team principals that you are an elite driver that just has to be a part of the sport.

All drivers improve so Verstappen is proof of nothing. He showed flashes of top tier greatness from the start and was more like a rough diamond that needed to pick up experience to better hone his technique. He beat Sainz in 2015 fair and square, he scored a win in his first race at Red Bull and he was beaten but not outclassed by Dan in 2016, and by 2017 and 2018 he was the quicker driver.


Basically you should've just wrote "I don't count anything good that Ocon does but overall he only matched Perez"

It would have saved you a lot of time.

You say all drivers improve so that would make Ocon likely to develop to about Button level at worst? Sounds like someone that should be in F1 to me.


I can tell that you are losing this debate with that type of response.

Ocon needs to improve a lot to get anywhere near the top guys. The team principals likely think similarly to me and see Ocon having a less than 1% chance of actually being top tier, so Mercedes are correctly phasing him out in favour of Russell, who may or may not prove that he is top tier, so far so good from him of course, by comfortably beating his team mate, that is all he can do for now, (plus lapping quickly in the Mercedes tests).
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mikeyg123
 Post subject: Re: Silly Season 2020!
PostPosted: Sun Jul 07, 2019 6:44 pm 
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Joined: Sat Jan 28, 2012 4:13 pm
Posts: 16071
F1 Racer wrote:
mikeyg123 wrote:
F1 Racer wrote:


No, I don't remember the front row starts but that was probably because he didn't do anything special to turn them into results, not that those qualifying results were not decent in and of themselves of course. However I remember Barrichello getting pole in a Jordan at Belgium 1994 and Fisichella getting pole in Austria 1998, so the odd shock with a driver qualifying uncharacteristically high can happen, but they never seem to convert the good qualifying into a good result etc. And remember that Fisichella and Barrichello weren't bad drivers, they were very competent and Ocon likely is too, but what we can safely say about Ocon is that he is not top tier, so he is not needed anymore. We can be 99.9% sure that he is not top tier, and that is more than enough certainty.

There are other drivers in F1 history that were competent but weren't able to carve out long careers in the sport for one reason or another, it happens and is not a great loss to the sport when it does happen, so if Ocon is the latest 'unlucky' driver that loses his chance to become the next Hulkenberg/Perez F1 journeyman then it is no great shame. Johnny Herbert carved out a fairly lengthy career as an F1 journeyman. Were there other drivers that were slightly better than him and slightly worse than him whose F1 careers were cut short in the late 80's and early 90's and they unluckily missed out on being able to fulfill a journeyman career in the same vein as Johnny? Almost certainly there were but we do not shed a tear for them now and we did not shed a tear for them back then. They were the Ocon's back in the day and life goes on, not everyone can get what they want but the best performers, (the top tier guys), always do get that long career in the sport. Someone like Anthony Davidson was probably a competent driver that if circumstances were different he could have had a long journeyman career in F1, but he got unlucky and so as a result only got a handful of races in poor equipment and was eventually binned by the sport. However he had enough opportunity to demonstrate whether he was top tier or not, and he clearly wasn't.

Back to Ocon, the 'matching Perez' argument just adds more credence to him being competent which I am not disputing. A quick look at the points and qualifying match ups though, and Perez outscored him for points quite comfortably and qualifying was quite close over the two years combined. At best he's as good as Perez but he could be a bit worse than him. That isn't a great showing if you are hoping to convince team principals that you are an elite driver that just has to be a part of the sport.

All drivers improve so Verstappen is proof of nothing. He showed flashes of top tier greatness from the start and was more like a rough diamond that needed to pick up experience to better hone his technique. He beat Sainz in 2015 fair and square, he scored a win in his first race at Red Bull and he was beaten but not outclassed by Dan in 2016, and by 2017 and 2018 he was the quicker driver.


Basically you should've just wrote "I don't count anything good that Ocon does but overall he only matched Perez"

It would have saved you a lot of time.

You say all drivers improve so that would make Ocon likely to develop to about Button level at worst? Sounds like someone that should be in F1 to me.


I can tell that you are losing this debate with that type of response.

Ocon needs to improve a lot to get anywhere near the top guys. The team principals likely think similarly to me and see Ocon having a less than 1% chance of actually being top tier, so Mercedes are correctly phasing him out in favour of Russell, who may or may not prove that he is top tier, so far so good from him of course, by comfortably beating his team mate, that is all he can do for now, (plus lapping quickly in the Mercedes tests).


You honestly don't think a potential Button level driver at least is worth giving a go?

I think your expectations are way to high. Leclerc is doing ok and didn't have a better debut season than Ocon IMO
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kleefton
 Post subject: Re: Silly Season 2020!
PostPosted: Sun Jul 07, 2019 7:06 pm 
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Posts: 3821
Todd wrote:
Is Williams ditching Mercedes or is Mercedes ditching Williams? I seriously doubt that Mercedes-Benz engines are one of the reasons Williams has the slowest cars. Maybe Williams is ditching Mercedes engines because they want an engine partner that they can blame for their miserable performance?



I’m almost certain the reason is financial and that it was Williams decision. I can only imagine a Renault engine supply is cheaper than a Merc one. Typical Williams; cutting costs and corners at every opportunity. No wonder they are last and they will probably continue to be until they fold.
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F1 Racer
 Post subject: Re: Silly Season 2020!
PostPosted: Sun Jul 07, 2019 7:21 pm 
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Posts: 554
mikeyg123 wrote:
F1 Racer wrote:
mikeyg123 wrote:
F1 Racer wrote:


No, I don't remember the front row starts but that was probably because he didn't do anything special to turn them into results, not that those qualifying results were not decent in and of themselves of course. However I remember Barrichello getting pole in a Jordan at Belgium 1994 and Fisichella getting pole in Austria 1998, so the odd shock with a driver qualifying uncharacteristically high can happen, but they never seem to convert the good qualifying into a good result etc. And remember that Fisichella and Barrichello weren't bad drivers, they were very competent and Ocon likely is too, but what we can safely say about Ocon is that he is not top tier, so he is not needed anymore. We can be 99.9% sure that he is not top tier, and that is more than enough certainty.

There are other drivers in F1 history that were competent but weren't able to carve out long careers in the sport for one reason or another, it happens and is not a great loss to the sport when it does happen, so if Ocon is the latest 'unlucky' driver that loses his chance to become the next Hulkenberg/Perez F1 journeyman then it is no great shame. Johnny Herbert carved out a fairly lengthy career as an F1 journeyman. Were there other drivers that were slightly better than him and slightly worse than him whose F1 careers were cut short in the late 80's and early 90's and they unluckily missed out on being able to fulfill a journeyman career in the same vein as Johnny? Almost certainly there were but we do not shed a tear for them now and we did not shed a tear for them back then. They were the Ocon's back in the day and life goes on, not everyone can get what they want but the best performers, (the top tier guys), always do get that long career in the sport. Someone like Anthony Davidson was probably a competent driver that if circumstances were different he could have had a long journeyman career in F1, but he got unlucky and so as a result only got a handful of races in poor equipment and was eventually binned by the sport. However he had enough opportunity to demonstrate whether he was top tier or not, and he clearly wasn't.

Back to Ocon, the 'matching Perez' argument just adds more credence to him being competent which I am not disputing. A quick look at the points and qualifying match ups though, and Perez outscored him for points quite comfortably and qualifying was quite close over the two years combined. At best he's as good as Perez but he could be a bit worse than him. That isn't a great showing if you are hoping to convince team principals that you are an elite driver that just has to be a part of the sport.

All drivers improve so Verstappen is proof of nothing. He showed flashes of top tier greatness from the start and was more like a rough diamond that needed to pick up experience to better hone his technique. He beat Sainz in 2015 fair and square, he scored a win in his first race at Red Bull and he was beaten but not outclassed by Dan in 2016, and by 2017 and 2018 he was the quicker driver.


Basically you should've just wrote "I don't count anything good that Ocon does but overall he only matched Perez"

It would have saved you a lot of time.

You say all drivers improve so that would make Ocon likely to develop to about Button level at worst? Sounds like someone that should be in F1 to me.


I can tell that you are losing this debate with that type of response.

Ocon needs to improve a lot to get anywhere near the top guys. The team principals likely think similarly to me and see Ocon having a less than 1% chance of actually being top tier, so Mercedes are correctly phasing him out in favour of Russell, who may or may not prove that he is top tier, so far so good from him of course, by comfortably beating his team mate, that is all he can do for now, (plus lapping quickly in the Mercedes tests).


You honestly don't think a potential Button level driver at least is worth giving a go?

I think your expectations are way to high. Leclerc is doing ok and didn't have a better debut season than Ocon IMO


No because it's just potential and he likely isn't on Button's level anyway. And Button was probably not top tier anyhow but a second tier driver like Nico Rosberg, Daniel Ricciardo or Mika Hakkinen.

He's had his chance, he's had 40+ races and he's blown it. He always seemed to have an air of arrogance in his interviews without the pure out-and-out speed to back the cockiness up. Next!

Leclerc is possibly only tier two, (albeit it's early days), but that is still better than Ocon, and well, he's just luckier than Ocon because the Ferrari programme worked out better with his career moves than the Mercedes programme did with Ocon, but again that is fine as not all lesser drivers will have the luck to force out long F1 careers. Ocon had his opportunity to force a drive and not need to rely on luck by destroying Perez. He couldn't do that over two seasons and is now paying the price. It is not enough to just eek out a possible draw with Perez, he needs to convincingly beat him and he couldn't so therefore at that point he was just relying on luck to continue his F1 career. The luck wasn't there so he has been forced into a hiatus, one which he will likely not return from in competitive equipment, and possibly no return at all, in which case, ok.
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mikeyg123
 Post subject: Re: Silly Season 2020!
PostPosted: Sun Jul 07, 2019 8:01 pm 
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Posts: 16071
F1 Racer wrote:
mikeyg123 wrote:
F1 Racer wrote:
mikeyg123 wrote:
F1 Racer wrote:


No, I don't remember the front row starts but that was probably because he didn't do anything special to turn them into results, not that those qualifying results were not decent in and of themselves of course. However I remember Barrichello getting pole in a Jordan at Belgium 1994 and Fisichella getting pole in Austria 1998, so the odd shock with a driver qualifying uncharacteristically high can happen, but they never seem to convert the good qualifying into a good result etc. And remember that Fisichella and Barrichello weren't bad drivers, they were very competent and Ocon likely is too, but what we can safely say about Ocon is that he is not top tier, so he is not needed anymore. We can be 99.9% sure that he is not top tier, and that is more than enough certainty.

There are other drivers in F1 history that were competent but weren't able to carve out long careers in the sport for one reason or another, it happens and is not a great loss to the sport when it does happen, so if Ocon is the latest 'unlucky' driver that loses his chance to become the next Hulkenberg/Perez F1 journeyman then it is no great shame. Johnny Herbert carved out a fairly lengthy career as an F1 journeyman. Were there other drivers that were slightly better than him and slightly worse than him whose F1 careers were cut short in the late 80's and early 90's and they unluckily missed out on being able to fulfill a journeyman career in the same vein as Johnny? Almost certainly there were but we do not shed a tear for them now and we did not shed a tear for them back then. They were the Ocon's back in the day and life goes on, not everyone can get what they want but the best performers, (the top tier guys), always do get that long career in the sport. Someone like Anthony Davidson was probably a competent driver that if circumstances were different he could have had a long journeyman career in F1, but he got unlucky and so as a result only got a handful of races in poor equipment and was eventually binned by the sport. However he had enough opportunity to demonstrate whether he was top tier or not, and he clearly wasn't.

Back to Ocon, the 'matching Perez' argument just adds more credence to him being competent which I am not disputing. A quick look at the points and qualifying match ups though, and Perez outscored him for points quite comfortably and qualifying was quite close over the two years combined. At best he's as good as Perez but he could be a bit worse than him. That isn't a great showing if you are hoping to convince team principals that you are an elite driver that just has to be a part of the sport.

All drivers improve so Verstappen is proof of nothing. He showed flashes of top tier greatness from the start and was more like a rough diamond that needed to pick up experience to better hone his technique. He beat Sainz in 2015 fair and square, he scored a win in his first race at Red Bull and he was beaten but not outclassed by Dan in 2016, and by 2017 and 2018 he was the quicker driver.


Basically you should've just wrote "I don't count anything good that Ocon does but overall he only matched Perez"

It would have saved you a lot of time.

You say all drivers improve so that would make Ocon likely to develop to about Button level at worst? Sounds like someone that should be in F1 to me.


I can tell that you are losing this debate with that type of response.

Ocon needs to improve a lot to get anywhere near the top guys. The team principals likely think similarly to me and see Ocon having a less than 1% chance of actually being top tier, so Mercedes are correctly phasing him out in favour of Russell, who may or may not prove that he is top tier, so far so good from him of course, by comfortably beating his team mate, that is all he can do for now, (plus lapping quickly in the Mercedes tests).


You honestly don't think a potential Button level driver at least is worth giving a go?

I think your expectations are way to high. Leclerc is doing ok and didn't have a better debut season than Ocon IMO


No because it's just potential and he likely isn't on Button's level anyway. And Button was probably not top tier anyhow but a second tier driver like Nico Rosberg, Daniel Ricciardo or Mika Hakkinen.

He's had his chance, he's had 40+ races and he's blown it. He always seemed to have an air of arrogance in his interviews without the pure out-and-out speed to back the cockiness up. Next!

Leclerc is possibly only tier two, (albeit it's early days), but that is still better than Ocon, and well, he's just luckier than Ocon because the Ferrari programme worked out better with his career moves than the Mercedes programme did with Ocon, but again that is fine as not all lesser drivers will have the luck to force out long F1 careers. Ocon had his opportunity to force a drive and not need to rely on luck by destroying Perez. He couldn't do that over two seasons and is now paying the price. It is not enough to just eek out a possible draw with Perez, he needs to convincingly beat him and he couldn't so therefore at that point he was just relying on luck to continue his F1 career. The luck wasn't there so he has been forced into a hiatus, one which he will likely not return from in competitive equipment, and possibly no return at all, in which case, ok.


Hang on, you said drivers always improve? He's already as good as Perez and Button was only a little bit better than Perez....

In my opinion eeking out a draw with Perez in only your second season is very impressive. And even if he does only max out at tier 2 that's very good. We do actually need good quality drivers for the likes of Verstappen to beat.
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F1 Racer
 Post subject: Re: Silly Season 2020!
PostPosted: Mon Jul 08, 2019 2:09 am 
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Posts: 554
mikeyg123 wrote:
F1 Racer wrote:
mikeyg123 wrote:

You honestly don't think a potential Button level driver at least is worth giving a go?

I think your expectations are way to high. Leclerc is doing ok and didn't have a better debut season than Ocon IMO


No because it's just potential and he likely isn't on Button's level anyway. And Button was probably not top tier anyhow but a second tier driver like Nico Rosberg, Daniel Ricciardo or Mika Hakkinen.

He's had his chance, he's had 40+ races and he's blown it. He always seemed to have an air of arrogance in his interviews without the pure out-and-out speed to back the cockiness up. Next!

Leclerc is possibly only tier two, (albeit it's early days), but that is still better than Ocon, and well, he's just luckier than Ocon because the Ferrari programme worked out better with his career moves than the Mercedes programme did with Ocon, but again that is fine as not all lesser drivers will have the luck to force out long F1 careers. Ocon had his opportunity to force a drive and not need to rely on luck by destroying Perez. He couldn't do that over two seasons and is now paying the price. It is not enough to just eek out a possible draw with Perez, he needs to convincingly beat him and he couldn't so therefore at that point he was just relying on luck to continue his F1 career. The luck wasn't there so he has been forced into a hiatus, one which he will likely not return from in competitive equipment, and possibly no return at all, in which case, ok.


Hang on, you said drivers always improve? He's already as good as Perez and Button was only a little bit better than Perez....

In my opinion eeking out a draw with Perez in only your second season is very impressive. And even if he does only max out at tier 2 that's very good. We do actually need good quality drivers for the likes of Verstappen to beat.


Drivers always improve, but they never improve that much from where they are at the start of their careers. For example Hamilton was almost matching Alonso straight away and improved to be matching him by the middle of 2007, and maybe at his peak many years laters was slightly faster than Alonso, but that is not a huge improvement in terms of overall lap time from the start of his career to his peak years.

Not only that but most of a driver's improvement comes in the first year and a bit in the second year, and then even less in the third year and so on. With each additional year they learn less.

So if after two full years Ocon is still only matching a journeyman driver in Perez, then he has limited potential to suddenly 'discover' a tonne of inherent pace and become a top tier driver, so he is finished essentially, he has very limited improvement left to make. And this is absolutely fine of course as most new young drivers that make it to F1 won't be top tier, so why is it so hard to believe that Ocon is yet another that is part of the majority and not the minority?

Drawing with Perez in your second season is not impressive, it's boring, that's what it is. That is why I said Ocon can 'bore off'. I have higher standards to which I hold drivers to than you and I believe that team principals also have higher standards than you. This is Formula One and excellence is demanded. Anything less is not impressive. Each to their own of course, but I think everyone should be harsher on these drivers and demand more; we want proper talent with an explosive will to win, not a field packed with 'competent' drivers and no fireworks.
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mikeyg123
 Post subject: Re: Silly Season 2020!
PostPosted: Mon Jul 08, 2019 6:18 am 
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F1 Racer wrote:
mikeyg123 wrote:
F1 Racer wrote:
mikeyg123 wrote:

You honestly don't think a potential Button level driver at least is worth giving a go?

I think your expectations are way to high. Leclerc is doing ok and didn't have a better debut season than Ocon IMO


No because it's just potential and he likely isn't on Button's level anyway. And Button was probably not top tier anyhow but a second tier driver like Nico Rosberg, Daniel Ricciardo or Mika Hakkinen.

He's had his chance, he's had 40+ races and he's blown it. He always seemed to have an air of arrogance in his interviews without the pure out-and-out speed to back the cockiness up. Next!

Leclerc is possibly only tier two, (albeit it's early days), but that is still better than Ocon, and well, he's just luckier than Ocon because the Ferrari programme worked out better with his career moves than the Mercedes programme did with Ocon, but again that is fine as not all lesser drivers will have the luck to force out long F1 careers. Ocon had his opportunity to force a drive and not need to rely on luck by destroying Perez. He couldn't do that over two seasons and is now paying the price. It is not enough to just eek out a possible draw with Perez, he needs to convincingly beat him and he couldn't so therefore at that point he was just relying on luck to continue his F1 career. The luck wasn't there so he has been forced into a hiatus, one which he will likely not return from in competitive equipment, and possibly no return at all, in which case, ok.


Hang on, you said drivers always improve? He's already as good as Perez and Button was only a little bit better than Perez....

In my opinion eeking out a draw with Perez in only your second season is very impressive. And even if he does only max out at tier 2 that's very good. We do actually need good quality drivers for the likes of Verstappen to beat.


Drivers always improve, but they never improve that much from where they are at the start of their careers. For example Hamilton was almost matching Alonso straight away and improved to be matching him by the middle of 2007, and maybe at his peak many years laters was slightly faster than Alonso, but that is not a huge improvement in terms of overall lap time from the start of his career to his peak years.

Not only that but most of a driver's improvement comes in the first year and a bit in the second year, and then even less in the third year and so on. With each additional year they learn less.

So if after two full years Ocon is still only matching a journeyman driver in Perez, then he has limited potential to suddenly 'discover' a tonne of inherent pace and become a top tier driver, so he is finished essentially, he has very limited improvement left to make. And this is absolutely fine of course as most new young drivers that make it to F1 won't be top tier, so why is it so hard to believe that Ocon is yet another that is part of the majority and not the minority?

Drawing with Perez in your second season is not impressive, it's boring, that's what it is. That is why I said Ocon can 'bore off'. I have higher standards to which I hold drivers to than you and I believe that team principals also have higher standards than you. This is Formula One and excellence is demanded. Anything less is not impressive. Each to their own of course, but I think everyone should be harsher on these drivers and demand more; we want proper talent with an explosive will to win, not a field packed with 'competent' drivers and no fireworks.


Team principles have higher standards and yet every single one of them except maybe Ferrari have at least one driver currently driving for them that is no better than Ocon? I don't think that's true.

I agree he probably will never be as good as Hamilton (who I think is miles better than he was in 2007 btw) but you are never going to fill a grid with Hamilton's there aren't enough. Forget about potential. Right now Ocon would be in the top 10 of drivers on the grid so deserves to be there in my opinion. I do think he will/would end up at a kind of Button, Rosberg level. I think the sport was made the better by their presence in it.
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mcdo
 Post subject: Re: Silly Season 2020!
PostPosted: Mon Jul 08, 2019 8:35 am 
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F1 Racer wrote:
mikeyg123 wrote:
F1 Racer wrote:


Wow. The likes of Bottas, Perez, Ocon and co. are solid but still essentially 'making up the numbers' type drivers. They are not the Senna's and Schumacher's of this world so all of them are replaceable and disposable.

Ocon has proven that he is not top tier, so if he never makes it back to F1, there is no loss there. The same with Albon, if he was a future top tier driver he would be crushing someone like Kyvat. Russell however could be top tier, maybe Kubica isn't as bad as we all think and it is more that Russell is a superstar that is helping make Kubica look so poor.

It is this line of thinking that made Ron Dennis choose Hamilton in 2007 over a known and experienced quantity in Pedro de la Rosa, who Ron knew was not top tier. Hamilton was an unknown and exciting quantity, he was not the boring and predictable option.

If someone like Verstappen was sitting on the sidelines hoping to make it back into F1, then yes, that would be a travesty if he didn't ever make it back into F1, but then someone with Verstappen's talent never would be on the sidelines, team principals would find a way of giving him a drive. On the rare occasions where unfortunate circumstances align and a true top tier driver is out of a drive for a year, (like Prost in 1992), they can jump back into competitive equipment at the first available opportunity the following season, (Prost got the Williams drive for 1993).

So just because Ocon is out of F1 currently, and he is likely as good as Bottas, and Bottas can sometimes win races in the best equipment, then therefore F1 needs Ocon back. No, F1 needs neither Ocon or Bottas and if Bottas was suddenly out of a drive then he would be quickly forgotten. It may sound harsh, but it's true. Unless you are top tier, then you are easily replaceable. Bottas is forced to play the team game and be a gentleman, because if he doesn't, his a$$ will be out of a drive so quickly his head will spin.

If there is a true top tier driver who is on the sidelines but they still want to race, (Alonso), then fans are desperate for him to get a competitive drive because his return would improve the series. The same when Schumacher couldn't make it back to Ferrari in 2009 due to his motorbike racing accident, that was such a blow not to see him be able to come back that year, and instead we got the hopeless Luca Badoer and the boring and predictable Fisichella in the Ferrari for the last few races.


If a driver can match Perez in just their second season I would argue that they have the potential to become top tier. Drivers don't arrive the complete package they do actually improve. I would also argue that the hardest element to improve on was out right speed and Ocon had more of it than Perez.

Regardless of any of that and even if he never improves a driver as good as Perez is far to good to be on the sidelines.


No, top tier drivers do show their class pretty much immediately, there is no 'potential' there, they are already delivering on it.

There is a long list of world champions that don't fit this

I recently had a debate with someone over Lewis Hamilton's impact on the sport. What had he actually changed from a driver point of view? I argued that he changed how new drivers are judged when they enter F1. Every new driver since 2007 has had a tougher time of it because Hamilton raised the bar astronomically high for rookies

Your statement above - nobody used to think like this before Lewis Hamilton. That's why world champions like Kimi Raikkonen, Jenson Button and Nico Rosberg didn't tear up the form book when they arrived on the scene. Every one of them got beaten by their teammate in their rookie season (and none of those teammates ever went on to win a title themselves). But the signs were there that in the right environment they could deliver. And now each one of them has his place in the F1 history books forever. IMO Esteban Ocon fits this bill - put him in the right environment and he could do the job, the potential is there

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F1 Racer
 Post subject: Re: Silly Season 2020!
PostPosted: Mon Jul 08, 2019 4:30 pm 
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mcdo wrote:
F1 Racer wrote:
mikeyg123 wrote:
F1 Racer wrote:


Wow. The likes of Bottas, Perez, Ocon and co. are solid but still essentially 'making up the numbers' type drivers. They are not the Senna's and Schumacher's of this world so all of them are replaceable and disposable.

Ocon has proven that he is not top tier, so if he never makes it back to F1, there is no loss there. The same with Albon, if he was a future top tier driver he would be crushing someone like Kyvat. Russell however could be top tier, maybe Kubica isn't as bad as we all think and it is more that Russell is a superstar that is helping make Kubica look so poor.

It is this line of thinking that made Ron Dennis choose Hamilton in 2007 over a known and experienced quantity in Pedro de la Rosa, who Ron knew was not top tier. Hamilton was an unknown and exciting quantity, he was not the boring and predictable option.

If someone like Verstappen was sitting on the sidelines hoping to make it back into F1, then yes, that would be a travesty if he didn't ever make it back into F1, but then someone with Verstappen's talent never would be on the sidelines, team principals would find a way of giving him a drive. On the rare occasions where unfortunate circumstances align and a true top tier driver is out of a drive for a year, (like Prost in 1992), they can jump back into competitive equipment at the first available opportunity the following season, (Prost got the Williams drive for 1993).

So just because Ocon is out of F1 currently, and he is likely as good as Bottas, and Bottas can sometimes win races in the best equipment, then therefore F1 needs Ocon back. No, F1 needs neither Ocon or Bottas and if Bottas was suddenly out of a drive then he would be quickly forgotten. It may sound harsh, but it's true. Unless you are top tier, then you are easily replaceable. Bottas is forced to play the team game and be a gentleman, because if he doesn't, his a$$ will be out of a drive so quickly his head will spin.

If there is a true top tier driver who is on the sidelines but they still want to race, (Alonso), then fans are desperate for him to get a competitive drive because his return would improve the series. The same when Schumacher couldn't make it back to Ferrari in 2009 due to his motorbike racing accident, that was such a blow not to see him be able to come back that year, and instead we got the hopeless Luca Badoer and the boring and predictable Fisichella in the Ferrari for the last few races.


If a driver can match Perez in just their second season I would argue that they have the potential to become top tier. Drivers don't arrive the complete package they do actually improve. I would also argue that the hardest element to improve on was out right speed and Ocon had more of it than Perez.

Regardless of any of that and even if he never improves a driver as good as Perez is far to good to be on the sidelines.


No, top tier drivers do show their class pretty much immediately, there is no 'potential' there, they are already delivering on it.

There is a long list of world champions that don't fit this

I recently had a debate with someone over Lewis Hamilton's impact on the sport. What had he actually changed from a driver point of view? I argued that he changed how new drivers are judged when they enter F1. Every new driver since 2007 has had a tougher time of it because Hamilton raised the bar astronomically high for rookies

Your statement above - nobody used to think like this before Lewis Hamilton. That's why world champions like Kimi Raikkonen, Jenson Button and Nico Rosberg didn't tear up the form book when they arrived on the scene. Every one of them got beaten by their teammate in their rookie season (and none of those teammates ever went on to win a title themselves). But the signs were there that in the right environment they could deliver. And now each one of them has his place in the F1 history books forever. IMO Esteban Ocon fits this bill - put him in the right environment and he could do the job, the potential is there


Wow. You are assuming that every world champion is a top tier driver, this is despite me mentioning the likes of Mika Hakkinen, Nico Rosberg and Jenson Button being second tier drivers earlier in this thread...

Were Jacques Villeneuve and Damon Hill top tier drivers? Absolutely not. Damon was second tier at best and JV maybe third tier and possibly second tier. JV is a strange driver to evaluate as he spent a lot of his career being slow in my opinion, and even in 1996 and 1997, he had a few races where he was exceptionally fast but then quite a few races where he was flat out terrible.
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mikeyg123
 Post subject: Re: Silly Season 2020!
PostPosted: Mon Jul 08, 2019 4:50 pm 
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F1 Racer wrote:
mcdo wrote:
F1 Racer wrote:
mikeyg123 wrote:
F1 Racer wrote:


Wow. The likes of Bottas, Perez, Ocon and co. are solid but still essentially 'making up the numbers' type drivers. They are not the Senna's and Schumacher's of this world so all of them are replaceable and disposable.

Ocon has proven that he is not top tier, so if he never makes it back to F1, there is no loss there. The same with Albon, if he was a future top tier driver he would be crushing someone like Kyvat. Russell however could be top tier, maybe Kubica isn't as bad as we all think and it is more that Russell is a superstar that is helping make Kubica look so poor.

It is this line of thinking that made Ron Dennis choose Hamilton in 2007 over a known and experienced quantity in Pedro de la Rosa, who Ron knew was not top tier. Hamilton was an unknown and exciting quantity, he was not the boring and predictable option.

If someone like Verstappen was sitting on the sidelines hoping to make it back into F1, then yes, that would be a travesty if he didn't ever make it back into F1, but then someone with Verstappen's talent never would be on the sidelines, team principals would find a way of giving him a drive. On the rare occasions where unfortunate circumstances align and a true top tier driver is out of a drive for a year, (like Prost in 1992), they can jump back into competitive equipment at the first available opportunity the following season, (Prost got the Williams drive for 1993).

So just because Ocon is out of F1 currently, and he is likely as good as Bottas, and Bottas can sometimes win races in the best equipment, then therefore F1 needs Ocon back. No, F1 needs neither Ocon or Bottas and if Bottas was suddenly out of a drive then he would be quickly forgotten. It may sound harsh, but it's true. Unless you are top tier, then you are easily replaceable. Bottas is forced to play the team game and be a gentleman, because if he doesn't, his a$$ will be out of a drive so quickly his head will spin.

If there is a true top tier driver who is on the sidelines but they still want to race, (Alonso), then fans are desperate for him to get a competitive drive because his return would improve the series. The same when Schumacher couldn't make it back to Ferrari in 2009 due to his motorbike racing accident, that was such a blow not to see him be able to come back that year, and instead we got the hopeless Luca Badoer and the boring and predictable Fisichella in the Ferrari for the last few races.


If a driver can match Perez in just their second season I would argue that they have the potential to become top tier. Drivers don't arrive the complete package they do actually improve. I would also argue that the hardest element to improve on was out right speed and Ocon had more of it than Perez.

Regardless of any of that and even if he never improves a driver as good as Perez is far to good to be on the sidelines.


No, top tier drivers do show their class pretty much immediately, there is no 'potential' there, they are already delivering on it.

There is a long list of world champions that don't fit this

I recently had a debate with someone over Lewis Hamilton's impact on the sport. What had he actually changed from a driver point of view? I argued that he changed how new drivers are judged when they enter F1. Every new driver since 2007 has had a tougher time of it because Hamilton raised the bar astronomically high for rookies

Your statement above - nobody used to think like this before Lewis Hamilton. That's why world champions like Kimi Raikkonen, Jenson Button and Nico Rosberg didn't tear up the form book when they arrived on the scene. Every one of them got beaten by their teammate in their rookie season (and none of those teammates ever went on to win a title themselves). But the signs were there that in the right environment they could deliver. And now each one of them has his place in the F1 history books forever. IMO Esteban Ocon fits this bill - put him in the right environment and he could do the job, the potential is there


Wow. You are assuming that every world champion is a top tier driver, this is despite me mentioning the likes of Mika Hakkinen, Nico Rosberg and Jenson Button being second tier drivers earlier in this thread...

Were Jacques Villeneuve and Damon Hill top tier drivers? Absolutely not. Damon was second tier at best and JV maybe third tier and possibly second tier. JV is a strange driver to evaluate as he spent a lot of his career being slow in my opinion, and even in 1996 and 1997, he had a few races where he was exceptionally fast but then quite a few races where he was flat out terrible.


But they all had value to F1. The sport was better for their presence. They weren't a total, boring waste of time.
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F1 Racer
 Post subject: Re: Silly Season 2020!
PostPosted: Mon Jul 08, 2019 5:29 pm 
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mikeyg123 wrote:
F1 Racer wrote:
mcdo wrote:
F1 Racer wrote:

No, top tier drivers do show their class pretty much immediately, there is no 'potential' there, they are already delivering on it.

There is a long list of world champions that don't fit this

I recently had a debate with someone over Lewis Hamilton's impact on the sport. What had he actually changed from a driver point of view? I argued that he changed how new drivers are judged when they enter F1. Every new driver since 2007 has had a tougher time of it because Hamilton raised the bar astronomically high for rookies

Your statement above - nobody used to think like this before Lewis Hamilton. That's why world champions like Kimi Raikkonen, Jenson Button and Nico Rosberg didn't tear up the form book when they arrived on the scene. Every one of them got beaten by their teammate in their rookie season (and none of those teammates ever went on to win a title themselves). But the signs were there that in the right environment they could deliver. And now each one of them has his place in the F1 history books forever. IMO Esteban Ocon fits this bill - put him in the right environment and he could do the job, the potential is there


Wow. You are assuming that every world champion is a top tier driver, this is despite me mentioning the likes of Mika Hakkinen, Nico Rosberg and Jenson Button being second tier drivers earlier in this thread...

Were Jacques Villeneuve and Damon Hill top tier drivers? Absolutely not. Damon was second tier at best and JV maybe third tier and possibly second tier. JV is a strange driver to evaluate as he spent a lot of his career being slow in my opinion, and even in 1996 and 1997, he had a few races where he was exceptionally fast but then quite a few races where he was flat out terrible.


But they all had value to F1. The sport was better for their presence. They weren't a total, boring waste of time.


Yeah, and those were tier two drivers.

Ocon doesn't even appear to be that.

I go back to the Herbert example, were there other drivers in and around his ability from say 1988 to 1992 that ended up getting dumped by the sport and as a result they didn't get to carve out an F1 career like Johnny? There were probably a fair few, and those were the 'Ocon's' from that period. They got dumped too, probably for being in the wrong place at the wrong time compared to Herbert who was in the right place at the right time to capitalise and stay in the sport despite being mediocre.

Now were there any drivers in and around the ability of Senna and Prost from 1988 to 1992 that got dumped by the sport after demonstrating high potential in a handful or races? To my knowledge there was certainly a driver called Schumacher that demonstrated a high level potential and he got rewarded with a long career in F1, but I doubt there were others that showed this elite potential that then got randomly dumped by the sport in that period. To my knowledge all drivers of this level were kept by the sport, (i.e. there was only one of them during this time).

So the F1/Team Principal system or rationale of keeping drivers works. All elite potential is kept and given as much chance as possible to deliver on that potential. Tier two drivers are usually the drivers that were thought of as elite but they didn't quite deliver on this potential; they get a long career in the sport too. Now the tier three drivers will carve out a long career if they are lucky and in the right place at the right time, (Perez, Hulkenberg, Fisichella etc.), and the other tier three drivers that are unlucky and in the wrong place at the wrong time will not get to carve out a long career in the sport, (Ocon, Vandoorne, perhaps Jean Eric Vergne etc.). Tier four drivers and below, (Yuji Ide (5), Marcus Ericsson (4), Brendon Hartley (5) etc.), will not be able to carve out a long career in F1 even if they are lucky and in the right places at the right times, as their talent is not enough for them to keep a seat.

So there is no need to get upset or bothered by the unlucky tier three drivers missing out, it is totally fine and the sport does not need them, even if some tier three drivers do get lucky and are able to stay and make the numbers up. F1 has always functioned like this and I don't see the issue as there are only a limited number of seats. So long as all of the top talent is given a long term opportunity, (which I believe currently they do), then things are working fine.
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mikeyg123
 Post subject: Re: Silly Season 2020!
PostPosted: Mon Jul 08, 2019 6:20 pm 
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F1 Racer wrote:
mikeyg123 wrote:
F1 Racer wrote:
mcdo wrote:
F1 Racer wrote:

No, top tier drivers do show their class pretty much immediately, there is no 'potential' there, they are already delivering on it.

There is a long list of world champions that don't fit this

I recently had a debate with someone over Lewis Hamilton's impact on the sport. What had he actually changed from a driver point of view? I argued that he changed how new drivers are judged when they enter F1. Every new driver since 2007 has had a tougher time of it because Hamilton raised the bar astronomically high for rookies

Your statement above - nobody used to think like this before Lewis Hamilton. That's why world champions like Kimi Raikkonen, Jenson Button and Nico Rosberg didn't tear up the form book when they arrived on the scene. Every one of them got beaten by their teammate in their rookie season (and none of those teammates ever went on to win a title themselves). But the signs were there that in the right environment they could deliver. And now each one of them has his place in the F1 history books forever. IMO Esteban Ocon fits this bill - put him in the right environment and he could do the job, the potential is there


Wow. You are assuming that every world champion is a top tier driver, this is despite me mentioning the likes of Mika Hakkinen, Nico Rosberg and Jenson Button being second tier drivers earlier in this thread...

Were Jacques Villeneuve and Damon Hill top tier drivers? Absolutely not. Damon was second tier at best and JV maybe third tier and possibly second tier. JV is a strange driver to evaluate as he spent a lot of his career being slow in my opinion, and even in 1996 and 1997, he had a few races where he was exceptionally fast but then quite a few races where he was flat out terrible.


But they all had value to F1. The sport was better for their presence. They weren't a total, boring waste of time.


Yeah, and those were tier two drivers.

Ocon doesn't even appear to be that.

I go back to the Herbert example, were there other drivers in and around his ability from say 1988 to 1992 that ended up getting dumped by the sport and as a result they didn't get to carve out an F1 career like Johnny? There were probably a fair few, and those were the 'Ocon's' from that period. They got dumped too, probably for being in the wrong place at the wrong time compared to Herbert who was in the right place at the right time to capitalise and stay in the sport despite being mediocre.

Now were there any drivers in and around the ability of Senna and Prost from 1988 to 1992 that got dumped by the sport after demonstrating high potential in a handful or races? To my knowledge there was certainly a driver called Schumacher that demonstrated a high level potential and he got rewarded with a long career in F1, but I doubt there were others that showed this elite potential that then got randomly dumped by the sport in that period. To my knowledge all drivers of this level were kept by the sport, (i.e. there was only one of them during this time).

So the F1/Team Principal system or rationale of keeping drivers works. All elite potential is kept and given as much chance as possible to deliver on that potential. Tier two drivers are usually the drivers that were thought of as elite but they didn't quite deliver on this potential; they get a long career in the sport too. Now the tier three drivers will carve out a long career if they are lucky and in the right place at the right time, (Perez, Hulkenberg, Fisichella etc.), and the other tier three drivers that are unlucky and in the wrong place at the wrong time will not get to carve out a long career in the sport, (Ocon, Vandoorne, perhaps Jean Eric Vergne etc.). Tier four drivers and below, (Yuji Ide (5), Marcus Ericsson (4), Brendon Hartley (5) etc.), will not be able to carve out a long career in F1 even if they are lucky and in the right places at the right times, as their talent is not enough for them to keep a seat.

So there is no need to get upset or bothered by the unlucky tier three drivers missing out, it is totally fine and the sport does not need them, even if some tier three drivers do get lucky and are able to stay and make the numbers up. F1 has always functioned like this and I don't see the issue as there are only a limited number of seats. So long as all of the top talent is given a long term opportunity, (which I believe currently they do), then things are working fine.


Aha, well I think we have a fundamental disagreement about who is and isn't a tier 2 driver. Ocon is very much tier 2 IMO. Tier 2 already. Not just potential for tier 2. I don't think any young driver who had matched a team mate established as one of the top 10 drivers in the early 90s got dumped in their first 2 seasons.

Bottom line I think F1 is better for having a driver as good as Ocon than it is without.
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mcdo
 Post subject: Re: Silly Season 2020!
PostPosted: Tue Jul 09, 2019 8:45 am 
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F1 Racer wrote:
mcdo wrote:
F1 Racer wrote:
mikeyg123 wrote:
F1 Racer wrote:


Wow. The likes of Bottas, Perez, Ocon and co. are solid but still essentially 'making up the numbers' type drivers. They are not the Senna's and Schumacher's of this world so all of them are replaceable and disposable.

Ocon has proven that he is not top tier, so if he never makes it back to F1, there is no loss there. The same with Albon, if he was a future top tier driver he would be crushing someone like Kyvat. Russell however could be top tier, maybe Kubica isn't as bad as we all think and it is more that Russell is a superstar that is helping make Kubica look so poor.

It is this line of thinking that made Ron Dennis choose Hamilton in 2007 over a known and experienced quantity in Pedro de la Rosa, who Ron knew was not top tier. Hamilton was an unknown and exciting quantity, he was not the boring and predictable option.

If someone like Verstappen was sitting on the sidelines hoping to make it back into F1, then yes, that would be a travesty if he didn't ever make it back into F1, but then someone with Verstappen's talent never would be on the sidelines, team principals would find a way of giving him a drive. On the rare occasions where unfortunate circumstances align and a true top tier driver is out of a drive for a year, (like Prost in 1992), they can jump back into competitive equipment at the first available opportunity the following season, (Prost got the Williams drive for 1993).

So just because Ocon is out of F1 currently, and he is likely as good as Bottas, and Bottas can sometimes win races in the best equipment, then therefore F1 needs Ocon back. No, F1 needs neither Ocon or Bottas and if Bottas was suddenly out of a drive then he would be quickly forgotten. It may sound harsh, but it's true. Unless you are top tier, then you are easily replaceable. Bottas is forced to play the team game and be a gentleman, because if he doesn't, his a$$ will be out of a drive so quickly his head will spin.

If there is a true top tier driver who is on the sidelines but they still want to race, (Alonso), then fans are desperate for him to get a competitive drive because his return would improve the series. The same when Schumacher couldn't make it back to Ferrari in 2009 due to his motorbike racing accident, that was such a blow not to see him be able to come back that year, and instead we got the hopeless Luca Badoer and the boring and predictable Fisichella in the Ferrari for the last few races.


If a driver can match Perez in just their second season I would argue that they have the potential to become top tier. Drivers don't arrive the complete package they do actually improve. I would also argue that the hardest element to improve on was out right speed and Ocon had more of it than Perez.

Regardless of any of that and even if he never improves a driver as good as Perez is far to good to be on the sidelines.


No, top tier drivers do show their class pretty much immediately, there is no 'potential' there, they are already delivering on it.

There is a long list of world champions that don't fit this

I recently had a debate with someone over Lewis Hamilton's impact on the sport. What had he actually changed from a driver point of view? I argued that he changed how new drivers are judged when they enter F1. Every new driver since 2007 has had a tougher time of it because Hamilton raised the bar astronomically high for rookies

Your statement above - nobody used to think like this before Lewis Hamilton. That's why world champions like Kimi Raikkonen, Jenson Button and Nico Rosberg didn't tear up the form book when they arrived on the scene. Every one of them got beaten by their teammate in their rookie season (and none of those teammates ever went on to win a title themselves). But the signs were there that in the right environment they could deliver. And now each one of them has his place in the F1 history books forever. IMO Esteban Ocon fits this bill - put him in the right environment and he could do the job, the potential is there


Wow. You are assuming that every world champion is a top tier driver, this is despite me mentioning the likes of Mika Hakkinen, Nico Rosberg and Jenson Button being second tier drivers earlier in this thread...

Were Jacques Villeneuve and Damon Hill top tier drivers? Absolutely not. Damon was second tier at best and JV maybe third tier and possibly second tier. JV is a strange driver to evaluate as he spent a lot of his career being slow in my opinion, and even in 1996 and 1997, he had a few races where he was exceptionally fast but then quite a few races where he was flat out terrible.

Alright then lets make F1 a sport where only top tier drivers can compete. You'll have to reduce the field to 2 cars because only Hamilton and Verstappen are operating at the highest level. Otherwise, I don't get your point

There will always be drivers of varying ability on the grid. In every era of the sport ever.
The top tier drivers excel in all conditions - Schumacher, Hamilton, Alonso
The next tier down will deliver given the right tools/environment - Button, Rosberg, Hakkinen
The next tier down will give it a good shot in a top car but just fall short - Massa, Webber, Barrichello
And then you have rest - the journeymen, the pay drivers, the "what if" stories, etc. Right now Ocon is a "what if" driver. He has shown the potential to be a driver that will deliver given the right tools/environment. Let's see him back and see if he can build on that potential

P.S. You know that top tier? The very highest caliber drivers. That tier higher than Button, Rosberg, Hakkinen? There have only been somewhere between 10 and 20 drivers in the history of the sport at that level. Having a grid full of them is dreamland stuff

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F1 Racer
 Post subject: Re: Silly Season 2020!
PostPosted: Tue Jul 09, 2019 9:06 am 
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mcdo wrote:
F1 Racer wrote:
mcdo wrote:
F1 Racer wrote:

No, top tier drivers do show their class pretty much immediately, there is no 'potential' there, they are already delivering on it.

There is a long list of world champions that don't fit this

I recently had a debate with someone over Lewis Hamilton's impact on the sport. What had he actually changed from a driver point of view? I argued that he changed how new drivers are judged when they enter F1. Every new driver since 2007 has had a tougher time of it because Hamilton raised the bar astronomically high for rookies

Your statement above - nobody used to think like this before Lewis Hamilton. That's why world champions like Kimi Raikkonen, Jenson Button and Nico Rosberg didn't tear up the form book when they arrived on the scene. Every one of them got beaten by their teammate in their rookie season (and none of those teammates ever went on to win a title themselves). But the signs were there that in the right environment they could deliver. And now each one of them has his place in the F1 history books forever. IMO Esteban Ocon fits this bill - put him in the right environment and he could do the job, the potential is there


Wow. You are assuming that every world champion is a top tier driver, this is despite me mentioning the likes of Mika Hakkinen, Nico Rosberg and Jenson Button being second tier drivers earlier in this thread...

Were Jacques Villeneuve and Damon Hill top tier drivers? Absolutely not. Damon was second tier at best and JV maybe third tier and possibly second tier. JV is a strange driver to evaluate as he spent a lot of his career being slow in my opinion, and even in 1996 and 1997, he had a few races where he was exceptionally fast but then quite a few races where he was flat out terrible.

Alright then lets make F1 a sport where only top tier drivers can compete. You'll have to reduce the field to 2 cars because only Hamilton and Verstappen are operating at the highest level. Otherwise, I don't get your point

There will always be drivers of varying ability on the grid. In every era of the sport ever.
The top tier drivers excel in all conditions - Schumacher, Hamilton, Alonso
The next tier down will deliver given the right tools/environment - Button, Rosberg, Hakkinen
The next tier down will give it a good shot in a top car but just fall short - Massa, Webber, Barrichello
And then you have rest - the journeymen, the pay drivers, the "what if" stories, etc. Right now Ocon is a "what if" driver. He has shown the potential to be a driver that will deliver given the right tools/environment. Let's see him back and see if he can build on that potential

P.S. You know that top tier? The very highest caliber drivers. That tier higher than Button, Rosberg, Hakkinen? There have only been somewhere between 10 and 20 drivers in the history of the sport at that level. Having a grid full of them is dreamland stuff



Ok then, I've given a rational, plausible reason as to why Ocon is potentially being abandoned by the sport.

You disagree with my idea as to why this might be, so therefore what is your alternative explanation for Ocon being left out, (if indeed that is what ultimately happens to him)?
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mcdo
 Post subject: Re: Silly Season 2020!
PostPosted: Tue Jul 09, 2019 9:25 am 
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F1 Racer wrote:
mcdo wrote:
F1 Racer wrote:
mcdo wrote:
F1 Racer wrote:

No, top tier drivers do show their class pretty much immediately, there is no 'potential' there, they are already delivering on it.

There is a long list of world champions that don't fit this

I recently had a debate with someone over Lewis Hamilton's impact on the sport. What had he actually changed from a driver point of view? I argued that he changed how new drivers are judged when they enter F1. Every new driver since 2007 has had a tougher time of it because Hamilton raised the bar astronomically high for rookies

Your statement above - nobody used to think like this before Lewis Hamilton. That's why world champions like Kimi Raikkonen, Jenson Button and Nico Rosberg didn't tear up the form book when they arrived on the scene. Every one of them got beaten by their teammate in their rookie season (and none of those teammates ever went on to win a title themselves). But the signs were there that in the right environment they could deliver. And now each one of them has his place in the F1 history books forever. IMO Esteban Ocon fits this bill - put him in the right environment and he could do the job, the potential is there


Wow. You are assuming that every world champion is a top tier driver, this is despite me mentioning the likes of Mika Hakkinen, Nico Rosberg and Jenson Button being second tier drivers earlier in this thread...

Were Jacques Villeneuve and Damon Hill top tier drivers? Absolutely not. Damon was second tier at best and JV maybe third tier and possibly second tier. JV is a strange driver to evaluate as he spent a lot of his career being slow in my opinion, and even in 1996 and 1997, he had a few races where he was exceptionally fast but then quite a few races where he was flat out terrible.

Alright then lets make F1 a sport where only top tier drivers can compete. You'll have to reduce the field to 2 cars because only Hamilton and Verstappen are operating at the highest level. Otherwise, I don't get your point

There will always be drivers of varying ability on the grid. In every era of the sport ever.
The top tier drivers excel in all conditions - Schumacher, Hamilton, Alonso
The next tier down will deliver given the right tools/environment - Button, Rosberg, Hakkinen
The next tier down will give it a good shot in a top car but just fall short - Massa, Webber, Barrichello
And then you have rest - the journeymen, the pay drivers, the "what if" stories, etc. Right now Ocon is a "what if" driver. He has shown the potential to be a driver that will deliver given the right tools/environment. Let's see him back and see if he can build on that potential

P.S. You know that top tier? The very highest caliber drivers. That tier higher than Button, Rosberg, Hakkinen? There have only been somewhere between 10 and 20 drivers in the history of the sport at that level. Having a grid full of them is dreamland stuff



Ok then, I've given a rational, plausible reason as to why Ocon is potentially being abandoned by the sport.

You disagree with my idea as to why this might be, so therefore what is your alternative explanation for Ocon being left out, (if indeed that is what ultimately happens to him)?

There's a long way to go before determining that he has been abandoned by the sport

He's the unfortunate one that lost out in the major reshuffling last year. That's it. And he's very much a factor in the silly season this year. His Merc ties might continue to hinder him rather than help him, it remains to be seen. Ocon isn't absent from the F1 grid because of his performance or ability

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Herb
 Post subject: Re: Silly Season 2020!
PostPosted: Tue Jul 09, 2019 7:35 pm 
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https://www.bbc.co.uk/sport/formula1/48928467

Two seats sorted for 2020. The McLaren lineup will stay the same.

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Black_Flag_11
 Post subject: Re: Silly Season 2020!
PostPosted: Tue Jul 09, 2019 10:07 pm 
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Herb wrote:
https://www.bbc.co.uk/sport/formula1/48928467

Two seats sorted for 2020. The McLaren lineup will stay the same.

I wonder if this is what started those McLaren/Alonso split rumours.

Chinese whispers turns insider info that the lineup will be the same to -> Alonso wont be racing for McLaren next year -> Alonso wont be with McLaren next year -> Alonso and McLaren are splitting.
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Herb
 Post subject: Re: Silly Season 2020!
PostPosted: Tue Jul 09, 2019 11:06 pm 
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So I think this is the current contracted lineups:

Mercedes: Lewis Hamilton & ???
Ferrari: Sebastian Vettel & Charles Leclerc*
Red Bull: Max Verstappen & ???
Renault: Daniel Ricciardo & ???
McLaren: Carlos Sainz & Lando Norris
Haas: ??? & ???
Toro Rosso: ??? & ???
Alfa Romeo: Kimi Raikkonen & ???
Racing Point: ??? & ???
Williams: ??? & ???

*Leclercs is one I'm not sure of here, being reported as contracted to 2022, but I suspect that he is really on a one year deal with an option for Ferrari to pick up further years. Anyone got confirmation?


Still a lot of spaces to fill.

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sandman1347
 Post subject: Re: Silly Season 2020!
PostPosted: Tue Jul 09, 2019 11:32 pm 
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Herb wrote:
https://www.bbc.co.uk/sport/formula1/48928467

Two seats sorted for 2020. The McLaren lineup will stay the same.

The bit that I was most interested to read was this from Zak Brown:

"It was always the plan," Brown said, "but a lot of teams were sniffing around, a lot of teams are unhappy with both their drivers and given how Carlos and Lando were doing it was in our best interest to eliminate any speculation."

Which teams would you say are currently unhappy with both of their drivers? Other than Haas, I can't think of any obvious ones. Maybe Racing Point? But Sergio has been pretty solid and Lance's position can't really be under threat. WIlliams? I seriously doubt they are unhappy with Russell. He's been very impressive IMO.

The drivers that should be on the hot seat based on their performance this year IMO are: Stroll (he's not in any danger though), Magnussen, Grosjean, Kubica, Giovinazzi and Gasly. I think Haas should immediately sign Ocon if that is an option. He's probably the best driver available who is not currently on the grid and signing him will light a fire under both K-Mag and Ro-Gro (neither of whom is doing very well). I know the car is a handful but I actually still think it has the best raw pace of any midfield car most of the time. It's time they shook things up at that team. Whichever of their drivers performs best from there should get an extension but the other guy should be dropped.

The way Giovinazzi is being destroyed by a near 40 year old Kimi suggests to me that he doesn't have what it takes. Kimi is no slouch but this kid is making him look like Fernando Alonso. I think Giovinazzi might get another year because he's essentially keeping the seat warm for Mick Schumacher but he will need a massive upturn in performance if he doesn't want 2020 to be his last F1 season.

If nothing else pans out for Ocon, I'd imagine that Kubica's seat will be his next year. Robert is no longer an F1-level driver. That said, with Williams reportedly switching to Renault power units, it's possible that the door might be closed to Ocon.

Gasly is the guy who is perhaps in the most trouble. Maybe a team like Haas would be willing to take a chance on him but it's unlikely that his release will coincide with the period of time when they are assessing their 2020 lineup. He really might find himself out of F1 in 2020. It's looking more and more like his best case scenario will be a demotion back to STR. And who will replace him? Kvyat? Albon? Not very exciting is it? I think Red Bull need to re-evaluate their whole policy of only using drivers from their young driver program. They just don't have the talent pool that they used to now that Mercedes and Ferrari are snapping up youngsters too.
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Exediron
 Post subject: Re: Silly Season 2020!
PostPosted: Wed Jul 10, 2019 12:34 am 
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sandman1347 wrote:
The way Giovinazzi is being destroyed by a near 40 year old Kimi suggests to me that he doesn't have what it takes. Kimi is no slouch but this kid is making him look like Fernando Alonso. I think Giovinazzi might get another year because he's essentially keeping the seat warm for Mick Schumacher but he will need a massive upturn in performance if he doesn't want 2020 to be his last F1 season.

That was true early in the year, but I feel like GIO has been on Kimi's level these last two races. He is still a rookie, so I think it's only fair to give him time to find his legs. If this keeps up, he'll be doing a pretty decent job to match Kimi in the second half of his first season.

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UnlikeUday
 Post subject: Re: Silly Season 2020!
PostPosted: Wed Jul 10, 2019 12:16 pm 
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As per Andrew Carter (Former CEO of Lotus), from (his) sources he has heard Ocon will be driving for Mercedes next year.

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Jenson's Understeer
 Post subject: Re: Silly Season 2020!
PostPosted: Wed Jul 10, 2019 12:19 pm 
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UnlikeUday wrote:
As per Andrew Carter (Former CEO of Lotus), from (his) sources he has heard Ocon will be driving for Mercedes next year.


You mean Matthew Carter, right?

I'd take it with a very large pinch of salt regardless.

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Jenson's Understeer
 Post subject: Re: Silly Season 2020!
PostPosted: Wed Jul 10, 2019 12:25 pm 
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Exediron wrote:
sandman1347 wrote:
The way Giovinazzi is being destroyed by a near 40 year old Kimi suggests to me that he doesn't have what it takes. Kimi is no slouch but this kid is making him look like Fernando Alonso. I think Giovinazzi might get another year because he's essentially keeping the seat warm for Mick Schumacher but he will need a massive upturn in performance if he doesn't want 2020 to be his last F1 season.

That was true early in the year, but I feel like GIO has been on Kimi's level these last two races. He is still a rookie, so I think it's only fair to give him time to find his legs. If this keeps up, he'll be doing a pretty decent job to match Kimi in the second half of his first season.


Agreed. He's qualified ahead of Kimi in two of the last three races and he's looked better (not amazing, but at least more competitive) come Sunday as well. He is still a rookie, and it's also worth bearing in mind that he largely sat out the last two years. He also benefits from Ferrari not having anyone else to stick in that seat, not Mick Schumacher has more drives like he did in the Austrian sprint race.

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UnlikeUday
 Post subject: Re: Silly Season 2020!
PostPosted: Wed Jul 10, 2019 4:35 pm 
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Could we consider Bottas lucky or talented for continuing into the 3rd year at Mercedes? If Wolff wasn't his manager, would he be elsewhere but Mercedes? e has beaten Hamilton at times in qualy or race but I owe this success to the car as I don't believe he's in the same tier as Hamilton.

No doubt a big chunk of the silly season rests on his move, Ferrari & Red Bull could be his next ventures, provided Vettel retires & Gasly struggles into oblivion. Just because he drove for Mercedes, top teams should be interested in him by default?

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paulsf1fix
 Post subject: Re: Silly Season 2020!
PostPosted: Wed Jul 10, 2019 6:45 pm 
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Silly season for 2020 is interesting... I totally agree.

Mercedes: Lewis Hamilton & ?? Valteri Bottas (maybe) Esteban Ocon or George Russell or they pluge for Max,
Ferrari: Sebastian Vettel & Charles Leclerc*
Red Bull: Max Verstappen & Nico Hulkenburg probably or Kvyat if they think he's better than Gasly
Renault: Daniel Ricciardo & Esteban Ocon or Valteri Bottas if he loses his drive with Mercedes, a long shot if they lose Hulkenburg to Red Bull and they can't sign Ocon, Gasly could go there but I doubt it.
McLaren: Carlos Sainz & Lando Norris**
Haas: ?? & ?? Who knows, I wonder if they make a bid for Ocon?
Toro Rosso: Kyvat & Albon probably, I think
Alfa Romeo: Kimi Raikkonen & Giovinazzi I don't think Mick Schumacher is ready yet unless he starts seriously winning F2 races
Racing Point: Lance Stroll & probably Sergio Perez
Williams: ?? & ?? who knows I don't think Kubica will be there for 2020, Russell could remain there



*Leclerc will keep his seat
** McLaren confirmed
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mcdo
 Post subject: Re: Silly Season 2020!
PostPosted: Thu Jul 11, 2019 9:49 am 
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UnlikeUday wrote:
Could we consider Bottas lucky or talented for continuing into the 3rd year at Mercedes? If Wolff wasn't his manager, would he be elsewhere but Mercedes? e has beaten Hamilton at times in qualy or race but I owe this success to the car as I don't believe he's in the same tier as Hamilton.

No doubt a big chunk of the silly season rests on his move, Ferrari & Red Bull could be his next ventures, provided Vettel retires & Gasly struggles into oblivion. Just because he drove for Mercedes, top teams should be interested in him by default?

I don't think Bottas did enough last year but he definitely suffered some serious bad luck. I think he has bounced back well this year though and he's doing enough to retain his seat. Surely this is the closest he has ever been to Hamilton? Merc are running away with the WCC, both drivers are #1 and #2 in the drivers', they're breaking every record in the sport - what more could they ask for? The system works, why change it?

Ocon deserves a seat in F1 but I don't think Bottas deserves to be dropped for him

The only reason Toto should change the line-up IMO is if he has serious ambitions to take over the commercial arm of the sport and would like to set fireworks off before making the move. Hamilton v Verstappen in the same car and become the new Bernie while it all blows up. It would be a genius move :lol:

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pokerman
 Post subject: Re: Silly Season 2020!
PostPosted: Thu Jul 11, 2019 10:05 am 
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Herb wrote:
https://www.bbc.co.uk/sport/formula1/48928467

Two seats sorted for 2020. The McLaren lineup will stay the same.

No surprise there then.

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pokerman
 Post subject: Re: Silly Season 2020!
PostPosted: Thu Jul 11, 2019 10:24 am 
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So if we take on board Ocon replaces Bottas at Mercedes, then maybe Bottas to Renault which would then tie up rumours of the Hulk going to Red Bull, but what then becomes of the Red Bull juniors Gasly, Kvyat and Albon, who gets dropped?

Despite rumours of Williams going with Renault, Russell signed a multi year contract with them so he stays, let's not forget that former Mercedes junior Wehrlein drove a Manor with Ferrari engines so a different engine supplier should not be a problem.

I think Kubica is gone at the end of the year from F1 to be replaced at Williams by possibly reserve driver Latifi who's father I believe is even richer than Stroll, Latifi should have the necessary super license points by then.

However there is also a rumour of Latifi going to Racing Point to form a Canadian super team, their words not mine, a super team of mega rich Canadian fathers rather than actual driver talent. So in that case where goes Perez, I could see him replacing Grosjean at Haas?

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mikeyg123
 Post subject: Re: Silly Season 2020!
PostPosted: Thu Jul 11, 2019 10:49 am 
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pokerman wrote:
So if we take on board Ocon replaces Bottas at Mercedes, then maybe Bottas to Renault which would then tie up rumours of the Hulk going to Red Bull, but what then becomes of the Red Bull juniors Gasly, Kvyat and Albon, who gets dropped?

Despite rumours of Williams going with Renault, Russell signed a multi year contract with them so he stays, let's not forget that former Mercedes junior Wehrlein drove a Manor with Ferrari engines so a different engine supplier should not be a problem.

I think Kubica is gone at the end of the year from F1 to be replaced at Williams by possibly reserve driver Latifi who's father I believe is even richer than Stroll, Latifi should have the necessary super license points by then.

However there is also a rumour of Latifi going to Racing Point to form a Canadian super team, their words not mine, a super team of mega rich Canadian fathers rather than actual driver talent. So in that case where goes Perez, I could see him replacing Grosjean at Haas?


I think whoever doesn't get the Merc gig goes to Renault if Hulkenberg goes to Red Bull or Haas if Hulkenberg stays.

I think Ocon has a very outside chance of Red Bull if he can sever ties with Mercedes. Latifi is an unfortunate shoe in at Williams.

Giovinazzi will get another year at Alfa Romeo. Perez is a very good driver and a powerful man. I wouldn't 100% rule him out of a Red Bull drive if they decide to change. If not then he will go to Haas if Racing Point does the stupid thing and goes with 2 pay drivers. From the Stroll's perspective I guess it would at least make Lance look good.
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spiritone
 Post subject: Re: Silly Season 2020!
PostPosted: Thu Jul 11, 2019 4:37 pm 
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I repeat, ocon to haas, russell to merc, and bottas to renault. Latifi to williams and hulk to red bull. Should be an american driver in F1,Herta, with Haas.. The only way that seems possible is if daddy buys a team.
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Exediron
 Post subject: Re: Silly Season 2020!
PostPosted: Thu Jul 11, 2019 6:18 pm 
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mikeyg123 wrote:
I think Ocon has a very outside chance of Red Bull if he can sever ties with Mercedes.

Wouldn't this be hurt somewhat by the fact that he and Verstappen pretty much hate each other? That seems like a move designed to create a toxic team environment.

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mikeyg123
 Post subject: Re: Silly Season 2020!
PostPosted: Thu Jul 11, 2019 6:52 pm 
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Exediron wrote:
mikeyg123 wrote:
I think Ocon has a very outside chance of Red Bull if he can sever ties with Mercedes.

Wouldn't this be hurt somewhat by the fact that he and Verstappen pretty much hate each other? That seems like a move designed to create a toxic team environment.


Well it doesn't make it more likely. If I was Verstappen though I would quite relish the chance to ruin the career of someone I hate. If I was Ocon i would relish the chance to prove I'm as good as Max.

So It's not a difference that I think is insurmountable. Sometime a team mate war can force both drivers on.
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Exediron
 Post subject: Re: Silly Season 2020!
PostPosted: Thu Jul 11, 2019 8:37 pm 
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mikeyg123 wrote:
Exediron wrote:
mikeyg123 wrote:
I think Ocon has a very outside chance of Red Bull if he can sever ties with Mercedes.

Wouldn't this be hurt somewhat by the fact that he and Verstappen pretty much hate each other? That seems like a move designed to create a toxic team environment.

If I was Ocon i would relish the chance to prove I'm as good as Max.

If I was Ocon I'd be concerned about coming into a team built around a driver who hates me.

But anything can happen in Formula 1... and it usually does. ;)

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mikeyg123
 Post subject: Re: Silly Season 2020!
PostPosted: Thu Jul 11, 2019 9:31 pm 
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Exediron wrote:
mikeyg123 wrote:
Exediron wrote:
mikeyg123 wrote:
I think Ocon has a very outside chance of Red Bull if he can sever ties with Mercedes.

Wouldn't this be hurt somewhat by the fact that he and Verstappen pretty much hate each other? That seems like a move designed to create a toxic team environment.

If I was Ocon i would relish the chance to prove I'm as good as Max.

If I was Ocon I'd be concerned about coming into a team built around a driver who hates me.

But anything can happen in Formula 1... and it usually does. ;)


So would I but it's better than anything but a Merc or a Ferrari seat.
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spiritone
 Post subject: Re: Silly Season 2020!
PostPosted: Fri Jul 12, 2019 12:01 am 
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Ocon going to red bull is about as far fetched as alonso going back to ferrari. Ocon's only choices are renault or haas. Merc is letting him out of his contract for a reason, not good enough. I don't think renault because they would like another top driver like bottas. Grosjean is finished at haas so i think ocon would fit in there nicely.
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sandman1347
 Post subject: Re: Silly Season 2020!
PostPosted: Fri Jul 12, 2019 12:37 am 
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spiritone wrote:
I repeat, ocon to haas, russell to merc, and bottas to renault. Latifi to williams and hulk to red bull. Should be an american driver in F1,Herta, with Haas.. The only way that seems possible is if daddy buys a team.

I kind of like this but I struggle to imagine Bottas being let go. It would just be too hard to justify that. It would be amazing to see Russell get that opportunity though. I'd also be interested in seeing Valteri vs. Daniel. Kind of a way to connect the dots with some of our unscientific driver comparisons.
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mikeyg123
 Post subject: Re: Silly Season 2020!
PostPosted: Fri Jul 12, 2019 6:00 am 
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I'm not 100% sure Bottas will be at Merc next season. Not been widely reported but Bottas' 1 year extension clause in his contract ran out on the 1st of July. If they were already decided on Bottas they would have triggered it.
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Jenson's Understeer
 Post subject: Re: Silly Season 2020!
PostPosted: Fri Jul 12, 2019 7:15 am 
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spiritone wrote:
I repeat, ocon to haas, russell to merc, and bottas to renault. Latifi to williams and hulk to red bull. Should be an american driver in F1,Herta, with Haas.. The only way that seems possible is if daddy buys a team.


I would be absolutely amazed if Mercedes dropped Bottas for Russell, not Ocon. If they didn't think he (Ocon) was quick enough then they wouldn't have kept him around this year. It's not like he's racing and having the chance to prove himself on track. All the info they've got on him will be based on what he did up to the end of 2018, which is also what they based the decision to keep him on the team in, as well as some extra simulator data which they would've had anyway.

And as much as Russell is dominating Kubica, we have to remember that Kubica is a huge question mark. We don't really know if Russell's being made to look better than he is because of how poor 2019 Robert Kubica is, or if Kubica is actually still driving at a good level but Russell is just that exceptional. I'm sure Mercedes have a better idea of the answer to that (and I wouldn't be shocked if it's a bit of both) but it's not like Russell is doing this against a Perez or a Hulkenberg.

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Jenson's Understeer
 Post subject: Re: Silly Season 2020!
PostPosted: Fri Jul 12, 2019 7:21 am 
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mikeyg123 wrote:
I'm not 100% sure Bottas will be at Merc next season. Not been widely reported but Bottas' 1 year extension clause in his contract ran out on the 1st of July. If they were already decided on Bottas they would have triggered it.


I think it's exactly that: they haven't decided. Bottas isn't consistently close enough to Lewis to make the decision for them, but Ocon didn't dominate Perez in such a way that dropping Bottas for him is an obvious upgrade. But unless they can somehow wrangle Max away from Red Bull (assuming he's who they would pick as their long-term replacement for Lewis if they had the choice) then they're going to be making their decision based on drivers who are currently contracted to the team. Neither are going to sign elsewhere if they think they could be racing for Mercedes next year, so it's not like they have to rush to make a decision.

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mikeyg123
 Post subject: Re: Silly Season 2020!
PostPosted: Fri Jul 12, 2019 7:31 am 
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Personally, I think Toto wants to hire Ocon.
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