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Who would you like to see Bottas replaced with in the other Merc?
No one 24%  24%  [ 11 ]
Vettel 2%  2%  [ 1 ]
Verstappen 22%  22%  [ 10 ]
Riccardo 11%  11%  [ 5 ]
Leclerc 0%  0%  [ 0 ]
Alonso 20%  20%  [ 9 ]
Ocon 11%  11%  [ 5 ]
Hartley 4%  4%  [ 2 ]
Schumacher Jr 0%  0%  [ 0 ]
Maldonado 0%  0%  [ 0 ]
Stroll 0%  0%  [ 0 ]
Dixon 0%  0%  [ 0 ]
Other.. comment 4%  4%  [ 2 ]
Total votes : 45
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PostPosted: Tue Jun 25, 2019 11:28 am 
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UnlikeUday wrote:
pokerman wrote:
pendulumeffect wrote:
Perez would be a better choice than Bottas. He had a bright start to his career until he fell out of favour at McLaren for not being a team player and basically being number 2, when he was pretty close to Button. He has been at the same team far too long.

Perez I would say is not a strong qualifier, his race pace may be good in the midfield but nothing special at the pointy end of the grid.


But his style of driving in similar to Verstappen's or Ricciardo's - Fiesty. No doubt he's good on tyres & strategy but he also dares to take risks & goes for gaps. A very recent example was Canada when he went on the inside of Albon into turn 1 on the 1st lap because there was a gap.

His best year no doubt was 2012 where he managed a couple of 2nd places.

You missed the bit about qualifying though, being a poor qualifier in a top team is a killer unless you have the fortune of being in a dominant car, being able to pass Albon into the first corner is not quite the same.

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PostPosted: Tue Jun 25, 2019 11:32 am 
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TheGiantHogweed wrote:
pokerman wrote:
TheGiantHogweed wrote:
pokerman wrote:
Yet again I can't get involved with things that won't happen but only in things that have a better chance of happening, for 2020 the seat is between Bottas and Ocon.

However for 2021 there are many more options with Vettel, Verstappen and Ricciardo all being out of contract, all these drivers are better than Bottas/Ocon so I would like to see one of those 3 paired with Hamilton, hopefully at that time Hamilton will be a 7 time WDC. :)

The only other drivers that would be as good are Leclerc and Alonso, however Leclerc is under contract at Ferrari while Alonso is not desired by any of the top teams which has nothing to do with his ability as such.


I don't know if I am taking in what you are saying wrong, but do you actually mean that you think Leclerc is as good as Hamilton? If it is that, then it is a bit too early to suggest this. I can understand Alonso could well be though. But Leclerc is overall quite obviously looking worse than Vettel, who has not had a perfect start. So far this season including Leclerc mistakes, I can barely say he's been better than Bottas. Many think he has potential, but this is only what we think. Vettel has outqualified him 6 - 2 and we have only seen Leclerc against Vettel for a small amount of time. The rest of it was against Ericsson which doesn't prove much.

Basically, I think Leclerc has shown about as much promise as Bottas did in 2014 in the first stages. A few mistakes, but signs of being very quick. Bottas's few glimpses of this are not very consistent. But then I don't think Leclerc has been very consistent this year and he's made several mistakes, 2 of which were pretty big and costly.

No I'm just saying he's probably better than Bottas also taking into account it's only his second season in F1.


Ok, fair enough. I mentioned 2014 for Bottas as that was his 2nd season too and i personally think he showed about as much potential as Leclerc at his current stage now. And Bottas didn't show as much as some expected from then on. I'm just saying that it is a bit early to be judged really IMO.

Indeed the jury ultimately is still out on Leclerc.

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PostPosted: Tue Jun 25, 2019 11:34 am 
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pokerman wrote:
UnlikeUday wrote:
pokerman wrote:
pendulumeffect wrote:
Perez would be a better choice than Bottas. He had a bright start to his career until he fell out of favour at McLaren for not being a team player and basically being number 2, when he was pretty close to Button. He has been at the same team far too long.

Perez I would say is not a strong qualifier, his race pace may be good in the midfield but nothing special at the pointy end of the grid.


But his style of driving in similar to Verstappen's or Ricciardo's - Fiesty. No doubt he's good on tyres & strategy but he also dares to take risks & goes for gaps. A very recent example was Canada when he went on the inside of Albon into turn 1 on the 1st lap because there was a gap.

His best year no doubt was 2012 where he managed a couple of 2nd places.

You missed the bit about qualifying though, being a poor qualifier in a top team is a killer unless you have the fortune of being in a dominant car, being able to pass Albon into the first corner is not quite the same.



As much as I like Perez, I think he would get shown up in a top car. Heck even against Button he looked shaky. It's different when driving at the top of the grid. the level required is quite a bit higher.


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PostPosted: Tue Jun 25, 2019 11:35 am 
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Pascal Wehrlein.

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PostPosted: Tue Jun 25, 2019 11:53 am 
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The way things are going there is obviously no reason to replace Bottas.
If your primary objective is to see Hamilton beaten more frequently then I'd say Max is the only man for the job on the grid currently.


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PostPosted: Tue Jun 25, 2019 12:44 pm 
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As for Bottas being replaced, he does have a 100% Constructors Championship win rate, (let's be honest it's going to be 3 out of 3 come the end of this season), so there's no real reason for Mercedes to change things. He's very much a Barrichello-type driver, not top tier but experienced enough to keep bringing home solid points and not fast enough to trouble the de-facto number 1 driver in Lewis on a regular basis.


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PostPosted: Tue Jun 25, 2019 1:04 pm 
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mikeyg123 wrote:
It's pretty relevant TBH. If you add a little nuance and take out first and last season the cross team mate comparison is generally a good predictor. Obviously not fool proof though.


But it's all based on the Button/Perez season being seen as equal.
1/ they only had one season together
2/ They weren't equal!


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PostPosted: Tue Jun 25, 2019 1:46 pm 
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Laz_T800 wrote:
mikeyg123 wrote:
It's pretty relevant TBH. If you add a little nuance and take out first and last season the cross team mate comparison is generally a good predictor. Obviously not fool proof though.


But it's all based on the Button/Perez season being seen as equal.
1/ they only had one season together
2/ They weren't equal!

With #1 I take your point, with #2 I basically just rubbished your post.

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2013: 5th Place
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2016: 4th Place

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Wins: Canada 2018, Abu Dhabi 2017
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PostPosted: Tue Jun 25, 2019 1:53 pm 
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pokerman wrote:
7-6 to Perez but with Button having a better average of 0.06s, I tip you just took 5 minutes to get all that off a website that just throws everything into the mix whereas I discount wet sessions and were drivers had to be in the same sessions when they set their times, so basically I throw out all the junk, in Australia because of the wet qualifying Button managed to post a time over 9 seconds quicker than Perez, this was included in the website you visited seeing as there was 19 races that year.

I take hours compiling these stats, you spent 5 minutes on a website to make fun of my results.


I wasn't making fun of your results?
I will however never take a comparison seriously when you have to use such a convoluted method.
Having that many degrees of separation between Hamilton and Verstappen waters down the comparison to the point of uselessness IMHO.


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PostPosted: Tue Jun 25, 2019 1:58 pm 
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pokerman wrote:
Laz_T800 wrote:
mikeyg123 wrote:
It's pretty relevant TBH. If you add a little nuance and take out first and last season the cross team mate comparison is generally a good predictor. Obviously not fool proof though.


But it's all based on the Button/Perez season being seen as equal.
1/ they only had one season together
2/ They weren't equal!

With #1 I take your point, with #2 I basically just rubbished your post.


Nice guy. :lol:


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PostPosted: Tue Jun 25, 2019 2:19 pm 
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Laz_T800 wrote:
mikeyg123 wrote:
It's pretty relevant TBH. If you add a little nuance and take out first and last season the cross team mate comparison is generally a good predictor. Obviously not fool proof though.


But it's all based on the Button/Perez season being seen as equal.
1/ they only had one season together
2/ They weren't equal!


More data would be preferable. Perez and Button were equal when things are examined closely. I agree that if the analysis is a cursory look at the results it is not going t be very reliable. Fortunately there are people who go a lot deeper than that.


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PostPosted: Tue Jun 25, 2019 3:47 pm 
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I think Verstappen is faster and a bigger talent than Alonso/Hamilton. This is partially gut feeling and partially based on cross comparison data.

To give you an idea of just how talented Verstappen is, he was already one of the best drivers on the grid in 2017 when he was still only a teenager. Has there ever been any other 19 year old driver who could make any case for being the best/fastest driver on the grid?


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PostPosted: Tue Jun 25, 2019 5:43 pm 
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PostPosted: Tue Jun 25, 2019 6:22 pm 
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mmi16 wrote:
Rosberg


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PostPosted: Wed Jun 26, 2019 1:23 am 
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Laz_T800 wrote:
pokerman wrote:
7-6 to Perez but with Button having a better average of 0.06s, I tip you just took 5 minutes to get all that off a website that just throws everything into the mix whereas I discount wet sessions and were drivers had to be in the same sessions when they set their times, so basically I throw out all the junk, in Australia because of the wet qualifying Button managed to post a time over 9 seconds quicker than Perez, this was included in the website you visited seeing as there was 19 races that year.

I take hours compiling these stats, you spent 5 minutes on a website to make fun of my results.


I wasn't making fun of your results?
I will however never take a comparison seriously when you have to use such a convoluted method.
Having that many degrees of separation between Hamilton and Verstappen waters down the comparison to the point of uselessness IMHO.

Well what do I make of a laughing emote?

For me it serves me quite well when trying to judge such things and one thing it's without and that's being biased even if you would choose to question the methodology, I also do realise how much people value their own personal opinion.

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Wins: Canada 2018, Abu Dhabi 2017
Podiums: (8)


Last edited by pokerman on Wed Jun 26, 2019 1:58 am, edited 1 time in total.

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PostPosted: Wed Jun 26, 2019 9:28 am 
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The surprise isn't that Bottas is slower than Hamilton - the surprise is that the difference is less than what was expected.

We don't know how good drivers are until they are in the same car, and even then they may not be on a level playing field.


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PostPosted: Wed Jun 26, 2019 12:07 pm 
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babararacucudada wrote:
The surprise isn't that Bottas is slower than Hamilton - the surprise is that the difference is less than what was expected.

We don't know how good drivers are until they are in the same car, and even then they may not be on a level playing field.

Its actually exactly as could be predicted, did you not see my numbers?

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PF1 Pick 10 Competition

2013: 5th Place
2014: Champion
2015: 3rd Place
2016: 4th Place

2017: 9th Place
2018: 7th place


Wins: Canada 2018, Abu Dhabi 2017
Podiums: (8)


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PostPosted: Wed Jun 26, 2019 5:30 pm 
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pokerman wrote:
babararacucudada wrote:
The surprise isn't that Bottas is slower than Hamilton - the surprise is that the difference is less than what was expected.

We don't know how good drivers are until they are in the same car, and even then they may not be on a level playing field.

Its actually exactly as could be predicted, did you not see my numbers?


I checked and the forecast was surprisingly accurate for points scored.
viewtopic.php?f=3&t=13998&hilit=bottas+Hamilton
Bottas has scored 73% of Hamilton's points, so a bit below what was predicted.

I was thinking of qualifying performances and the impression I had formed was that Bottas was closer than predicted.


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PostPosted: Wed Jun 26, 2019 7:14 pm 
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babararacucudada wrote:
pokerman wrote:
babararacucudada wrote:
The surprise isn't that Bottas is slower than Hamilton - the surprise is that the difference is less than what was expected.

We don't know how good drivers are until they are in the same car, and even then they may not be on a level playing field.

Its actually exactly as could be predicted, did you not see my numbers?


I checked and the forecast was surprisingly accurate for points scored.
viewtopic.php?f=3&t=13998&hilit=bottas+Hamilton
Bottas has scored 73% of Hamilton's points, so a bit below what was predicted.

I was thinking of qualifying performances and the impression I had formed was that Bottas was closer than predicted.

That prediction was for the 2017 season so the majority predicted right with Bottas scoring 84% of Hamilton's points.

As for qualifying like I said it's very much as you would expect but did anyone actually make a prediction in regards to that?

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PF1 Pick 10 Competition

2013: 5th Place
2014: Champion
2015: 3rd Place
2016: 4th Place

2017: 9th Place
2018: 7th place


Wins: Canada 2018, Abu Dhabi 2017
Podiums: (8)


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PostPosted: Thu Jun 27, 2019 8:54 pm 
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Have split out the discussion about Verstappen's speed relative to Hamilton as it has become distinct from the original thread.

Max vs Lewis thread is now here:

viewtopic.php?f=3&t=15585


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PostPosted: Mon Jul 01, 2019 2:41 pm 
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I voted Alonso - because the question was "who would you LIKE to see" - yeah it would be a bit eyebrow raising for him to stroll into mercedes and take that spot but what a show that would be vs Hamilton again.

Barring that i vote "other": Throw Valentino Rossi in the car and see what happens.


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PostPosted: Tue Jul 02, 2019 1:14 am 
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Put Kimi in the second Merc. Would like to see what he does to Seb when he is paid to beat him, not just run second to him. :lol:

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PostPosted: Tue Jul 02, 2019 8:02 am 
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I'd love to see Verstappen or Alonso or even Ricciardo but in reality it's Bottas or Ocon. I think Bottas is doing enough right now to keep it

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PostPosted: Tue Jul 09, 2019 12:45 pm 
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Alonso would be great but that is not going to happen.
Mercedes has a winning combination. Bottas is gathering the points, not a real danger to Hamilton and just a nice guy.
Clear number 2 driver backing up number 1 when needed although they will not say it this way.

Ricciardo would be great to see. Good racer, qualifying aswell.
Will put up a fight compared to Bottas.

Ocon feels less mature at the moment. Less well rounded than Ricciardo.

Leclerc is not getting what he wants at the moment but leaving for Mercedes? I don't think so.

Max will be great to see next to Hamilton but Red Bull looks like the team for him right now.

Vettel to Mercedes next to Hamilton? Mercedes getting a German driver again might be tempting for the team. Only when Hamilton leaves I feel Vettel get's a chance. Hamilton to Ferrari...? ;)

Hulkenberg next to Hamilton? Also a German but my guess is Bottas again. Mercedes is going for an if it ain't broke don't fix it if you ask me.


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PostPosted: Tue Jul 09, 2019 2:56 pm 
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That's a good summary V33, I've often wondered if Hamilton would go to Ferrari after Mercedes but I think the culture shock of German efficiency v Italian creativity might be too much! :uhoh:


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PostPosted: Tue Jul 09, 2019 4:34 pm 
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Option or Prime wrote:
That's a good summary V33, I've often wondered if Hamilton would go to Ferrari after Mercedes but I think the culture shock of German efficiency v Italian creativity might be too much! :uhoh:

At this point, in terms of just maximizing his success, I think he should stay with Mercedes until retirement. Winning a title with a third team would be huge and I do think that most F1 drivers still see Ferrari as a special mark but what he and Toto and company have built at Mercedes is just incredible and I wouldn't be in a hurry to hand that over to another driver.


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PostPosted: Tue Jul 09, 2019 4:44 pm 
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Hamilton should stay put until Mercedes aren't a contender, and one bad season can be allowed as they get up to speed with new regulations let's say. In which case, perhaps Hamilton won't retire until he's 40+, because depending on what happens he could actually win 10 titles. Not even joking.


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PostPosted: Wed Jul 10, 2019 8:55 am 
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pokerman wrote:
babararacucudada wrote:
pokerman wrote:
babararacucudada wrote:
The surprise isn't that Bottas is slower than Hamilton - the surprise is that the difference is less than what was expected.

We don't know how good drivers are until they are in the same car, and even then they may not be on a level playing field.

Its actually exactly as could be predicted, did you not see my numbers?


I checked and the forecast was surprisingly accurate for points scored.
viewtopic.php?f=3&t=13998&hilit=bottas+Hamilton
Bottas has scored 73% of Hamilton's points, so a bit below what was predicted.

I was thinking of qualifying performances and the impression I had formed was that Bottas was closer than predicted.

That prediction was for the 2017 season so the majority predicted right with Bottas scoring 84% of Hamilton's points.

As for qualifying like I said it's very much as you would expect but did anyone actually make a prediction in regards to that?


There is recently bias here, people weren’t talking about Bottas good qualifying at the end of last year when I believe he lost 11-2 to Hamilton in the last 2/3’s.

People began to speak up about his qualifying pace again as he went 3-2 up against Hamilton in qualifying early in the year but now Hamilton is 4-0 up in the last 4 races and the standard pattern seems to be emerging of Hamilton getting quicker through the season. Austria is a Bottas track too.

Basically, a rough guide...

Hamilton on form/Bottas on form = Hamilton 0.150-0.200 ahead
Hamilton on form/Bottas off form = Hamilton 0.350-0.600 ahead

Hamilton off form/ Bottas on form = Equal times or Bottas up to 0.200 ahead

The problem for Bottas is there are too many 0.350-0.600 races per season, especially in the 2nd half and even when Lewis is off form he can and does still beat an on form Bottas.


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