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PostPosted: Fri Aug 30, 2019 9:54 am 
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kleefton wrote:
babararacucudada wrote:
Its the logical result. Bottas is a good No. 2 driver - and not going to challenge Hamilton.


It is only a good decision if Merc produces another fairly dominant car imo. You’d have to think both Ferrari and Redbull will be stronger next year. You have Verstappen, Vettel, Leclerc in those cars. Bottas can’t beat Hamilton. Where do you think Bottas is going to finish among those guys if the cars are fairly equal?


After Bottas seemed to enter 2019 with an attitude of trying to compete for the World Title, it seems Bottas is now back in the box, which suits Mercedes and Hamilton. Bottas can qualify well, and that is still a big factor if you can also get a good start. There are enough circuits where race craft is not much help so Bottas should be able to collect enough points.

Red Bull have the team to be able to compete if Honda can develop the engine enough. If they do that, I expect Max to be challenging Hamilton - not Bottas. Ferrari seem to be capable of not succeeding by always having a weakness in some part of the package, but they are failing badly if they cannot get even one win in a year of 21 races.
Mercedes have the complete package. Maybe in 2021, the order might change.


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PostPosted: Wed Sep 04, 2019 10:05 pm 
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I thought that his contract should be extended in this instance, though I wouldn’t have had much of an opinion either way had they opted to drop him last year. He is currently having his best season since joining the team so to have dropped him now would perhaps have sent out a worse message than Red Bull are seen to do at times.

Further to that, I didn’t think it made sense to put Ocon into a championship winning car after a year out. There is now George Russell who may well have more potential than Ocon, and clearly he would be a similar risk after only 1 year in a Williams. I think he’ll still be a risk if he spends another 2 years at Williams with Williams and Mercedes retaining their places at opposite ends of the grid, but that’s a future debate I suspect.

If Ferrari or Red Bull take the constructors in the next few years, then I suspect that’ll be the catalyst to drop him. For now, he’s an experienced driver to avoid Mercedes perhaps risking 2 younger drivers should Hamilton decide to go in 2021 (though I think this is unlikely with the records he stands to break.) If it is true that Lewis and the engineers swayed the decision in Bottas’s favour, they must think he is close to signing another contract.

Ricciardo could be seen as a known quantity on the grid, so if Ocon performs well against him and Bottas dips again, Mercedes might be interested in him when he is next available.


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PostPosted: Thu Sep 05, 2019 11:18 am 
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-K- wrote:
I thought that his contract should be extended in this instance, though I wouldn’t have had much of an opinion either way had they opted to drop him last year. He is currently having his best season since joining the team so to have dropped him now would perhaps have sent out a worse message than Red Bull are seen to do at times.

Further to that, I didn’t think it made sense to put Ocon into a championship winning car after a year out. There is now George Russell who may well have more potential than Ocon, and clearly he would be a similar risk after only 1 year in a Williams. I think he’ll still be a risk if he spends another 2 years at Williams with Williams and Mercedes retaining their places at opposite ends of the grid, but that’s a future debate I suspect.

If Ferrari or Red Bull take the constructors in the next few years, then I suspect that’ll be the catalyst to drop him. For now, he’s an experienced driver to avoid Mercedes perhaps risking 2 younger drivers should Hamilton decide to go in 2021 (though I think this is unlikely with the records he stands to break.) If it is true that Lewis and the engineers swayed the decision in Bottas’s favour, they must think he is close to signing another contract.

Ricciardo could be seen as a known quantity on the grid, so if Ocon performs well against him and Bottas dips again, Mercedes might be interested in him when he is next available.

Apparently Mercedes are already looking to open negotiations for Hamilton's next contract.

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Wins: Canada 2018, Abu Dhabi 2017
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PostPosted: Thu Sep 05, 2019 11:25 am 
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TheGiantHogweed wrote:
kleefton wrote:
sandman1347 wrote:
kleefton wrote:
babararacucudada wrote:
Its the logical result. Bottas is a good No. 2 driver - and not going to challenge Hamilton.


It is only a good decision if Merc produces another fairly dominant car imo. You’d have to think both Ferrari and Redbull will be stronger next year. You have Verstappen, Vettel, Leclerc in those cars. Bottas can’t beat Hamilton. Where do you think Bottas is going to finish among those guys if the cars are fairly equal?

Bottas was good enough in 2017 and 2018. I don't think it makes sense to compare Bottas to Verstappen and Vettel in this instance. You would instead compare him to Leclerc and Albon, and he has clearly out-performed both of those guys this year.


He has but that is largely because of the car he had at his disposal earlier in the year. He’s basically only been racing Lewis until recently. In 17 and 18 he never had real competition from Redbull because they were too unreliable and slow, and the second Ferrari had an underperforming Räikkönen. And though vettel has been less than impressive he still beat bottas both years. Whenever the cars were close on a weekend Bottas was typically nowhere and was outraced by basically all the others in the top 6.


I didn't think there was ever a race where Bottas was outraced by all 5 other drivers in the top 3 teams. There were multiple races near the end of last season where he finished 5th though and that possibly could have been 6th without retirements from the other teams though we can't prove it.

I thought that some did think that Ferrari was close to or equal to mercedes in the past couple of years, so I don't think it is that unrealistic that vettel beat him both times. the end of last year certainly was disappointing and the fact he finished 5th was down to this poor form. but then you also could say that he would have finished 3rd had it not been for team orders in Russia.


Cota 2017 is the first one that springs to mind for me. Everyone in the top 6 took turn passing him or beat him and he was the slowest of the group by far while Hamilton dominated the weekend. Hungary 2018 also was not too good. To me he was at times the weakest driver in the top 6 in 2017 and 2018.

Just to clarify my point, I don't think Bottas is a bad driver. I've always felt that he is a very solid driver, but it is a tough group at the top and that is why I am a bit surprised Merc chose him for 2020 considering who his competitors are going to be. But then again there is no guarantee that Ocon is better so there is that.


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PostPosted: Thu Sep 05, 2019 11:37 am 
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kleefton wrote:
TheGiantHogweed wrote:
kleefton wrote:
sandman1347 wrote:
kleefton wrote:
It is only a good decision if Merc produces another fairly dominant car imo. You’d have to think both Ferrari and Redbull will be stronger next year. You have Verstappen, Vettel, Leclerc in those cars. Bottas can’t beat Hamilton. Where do you think Bottas is going to finish among those guys if the cars are fairly equal?

Bottas was good enough in 2017 and 2018. I don't think it makes sense to compare Bottas to Verstappen and Vettel in this instance. You would instead compare him to Leclerc and Albon, and he has clearly out-performed both of those guys this year.


He has but that is largely because of the car he had at his disposal earlier in the year. He’s basically only been racing Lewis until recently. In 17 and 18 he never had real competition from Redbull because they were too unreliable and slow, and the second Ferrari had an underperforming Räikkönen. And though vettel has been less than impressive he still beat bottas both years. Whenever the cars were close on a weekend Bottas was typically nowhere and was outraced by basically all the others in the top 6.


I didn't think there was ever a race where Bottas was outraced by all 5 other drivers in the top 3 teams. There were multiple races near the end of last season where he finished 5th though and that possibly could have been 6th without retirements from the other teams though we can't prove it.

I thought that some did think that Ferrari was close to or equal to mercedes in the past couple of years, so I don't think it is that unrealistic that vettel beat him both times. the end of last year certainly was disappointing and the fact he finished 5th was down to this poor form. but then you also could say that he would have finished 3rd had it not been for team orders in Russia.


Cota 2017 is the first one that springs to mind for me. Everyone in the top 6 took turn passing him or beat him and he was the slowest of the group by far while Hamilton dominated the weekend. Hungary 2018 also was not too good. To me he was at times the weakest driver in the top 6 in 2017 and 2018.

Just to clarify my point, I don't think Bottas is a bad driver. I've always felt that he is a very solid driver, but it is a tough group at the top and that is why I am a bit surprised Merc chose him for 2020 considering who his competitors are going to be. But then again there is no guarantee that Ocon is better so there is that.

Well I think the juror is out on how strong the second Red Bull driver is going to be?

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2013: 5th Place
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2015: 3rd Place
2016: 4th Place

2017: 9th Place
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2019: Currently 26th

Wins: Canada 2018, Abu Dhabi 2017
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PostPosted: Tue Sep 10, 2019 6:21 am 
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Apparently Bottas said he's completely free in 2021. Wonder if Mercedes have told him he'll be replaced in 2021 by Ocon or Russell?

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PostPosted: Tue Sep 10, 2019 9:55 am 
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UnlikeUday wrote:
Apparently Bottas said he's completely free in 2021. Wonder if Mercedes have told him he'll be replaced in 2021 by Ocon or Russell?

By that time Ferrari will be looking for a new #2 driver to support Leclerc

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PostPosted: Tue Sep 10, 2019 11:22 am 
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UnlikeUday wrote:
Apparently Bottas said he's completely free in 2021. Wonder if Mercedes have told him he'll be replaced in 2021 by Ocon or Russell?


Won't be Ocon as he is already signed to partner Ricciardo at Renault next year.

Would love to see Russell given a much better ride than his current Williams seat. OTOH if Williams were to come round to being a mid-pack runner that would work also.

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PostPosted: Tue Sep 10, 2019 1:43 pm 
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mcdo wrote:
UnlikeUday wrote:
Apparently Bottas said he's completely free in 2021. Wonder if Mercedes have told him he'll be replaced in 2021 by Ocon or Russell?

By that time Ferrari will be looking for a new #2 driver to support Leclerc

I can very much see Ferrari choosing Bottas over, say, Ricciardo. Daniel never really fit the mold of a #2 driver wheres Valteri has been the new and improved version of Rubens. I think both of them would make difficult teammates for young Charles but, at least on Sunday, Daniel would be tougher.


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PostPosted: Tue Sep 10, 2019 1:47 pm 
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UnlikeUday wrote:
Apparently Bottas said he's completely free in 2021. Wonder if Mercedes have told him he'll be replaced in 2021 by Ocon or Russell?

Neither. I think Mercedes will want Verstappen in the car and, unless Red Bull can provide a championship capable car by 2020, I think Max might just take them up on the offer. I don't think it would be Max's first choice to team up with Lewis but I also don't think he'll want to sit and watch Charles win more races than he does. What we're seeing now with Leclerc will light a fire under Max; especially if it continues into next year.


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PostPosted: Tue Sep 10, 2019 2:00 pm 
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I'm with the "all depends on who the replacement might be" brigade. The way I'd see it is that you have the ultimate base line in Hamilton. If you're KO assuming that he can get the best out of the car every race, the most you can hope for your other driver is 1) they follow him home and don't let other cars get inbetween and 2) they pick up the points when Hamiton can't for whatever reason.

By those measure I'd say overall Bottas is still doing the job. Just. In 9 of 14 races they have finished in sequential positions.

Bottas is 2nd in the WDC with Hamilton first. Hamilton has scored an av of 20pts/race and Bottas 16. That's basically 2nd and 3rd place.

So as a No 2 or dare I say it, wingman I would retain him.

BUT...

If you want someone to push Hamilton harder and beat him on merit, then I think I'd look elsewhere. That's a short list. If you then reduce it to the available drivers it's even shorter. IMO the only ones in that bracket are Verstappen, Alonso, maybe Ricciardo and increasingly less so...Vettel. And if I can't see a healthy dynamic there with anyone but Ricciardo.

Question is - do you want that. Assuming they win the WDC and WCC why risk anything by having two "alpha" drivers.

Fact is Bottas is pretty much the perfect driver for Merc as long as Hamilton is in the other car,

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PostPosted: Tue Sep 10, 2019 2:31 pm 
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DOLOMITE wrote:
I'm with the "all depends on who the replacement might be" brigade. The way I'd see it is that you have the ultimate base line in Hamilton. If you're KO assuming that he can get the best out of the car every race, the most you can hope for your other driver is 1) they follow him home and don't let other cars get inbetween and 2) they pick up the points when Hamiton can't for whatever reason.

By those measure I'd say overall Bottas is still doing the job. Just. In 9 of 14 races they have finished in sequential positions.

Bottas is 2nd in the WDC with Hamilton first. Hamilton has scored an av of 20pts/race and Bottas 16. That's basically 2nd and 3rd place.

So as a No 2 or dare I say it, wingman I would retain him.

BUT...

If you want someone to push Hamilton harder and beat him on merit, then I think I'd look elsewhere. That's a short list. If you then reduce it to the available drivers it's even shorter. IMO the only ones in that bracket are Verstappen, Alonso, maybe Ricciardo and increasingly less so...Vettel. And if I can't see a healthy dynamic there with anyone but Ricciardo.

Question is - do you want that. Assuming they win the WDC and WCC why risk anything by having two "alpha" drivers.

Fact is Bottas is pretty much the perfect driver for Merc as long as Hamilton is in the other car,

I agree on most of this. The thing is that Hamilton won't be there forever and, at some point, Mercedes will need to consider what to do about lining up a proper replacement. Max and Charles frankly are the only two qualified candidates. They are both young enough and talented enough to make Mercedes feel that they can build around them for the long run. I don't think Charles is going anywhere so that basically leaves just one guy. The question is, when? Do they sign Lewis to one more 2-3 year contract and then plan to bring in Max when that is over and Lewis likely retires from the sport or do they attempt to team them together?


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PostPosted: Tue Sep 10, 2019 2:37 pm 
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sandman1347 wrote:
DOLOMITE wrote:
I'm with the "all depends on who the replacement might be" brigade. The way I'd see it is that you have the ultimate base line in Hamilton. If you're KO assuming that he can get the best out of the car every race, the most you can hope for your other driver is 1) they follow him home and don't let other cars get inbetween and 2) they pick up the points when Hamiton can't for whatever reason.

By those measure I'd say overall Bottas is still doing the job. Just. In 9 of 14 races they have finished in sequential positions.

Bottas is 2nd in the WDC with Hamilton first. Hamilton has scored an av of 20pts/race and Bottas 16. That's basically 2nd and 3rd place.

So as a No 2 or dare I say it, wingman I would retain him.

BUT...

If you want someone to push Hamilton harder and beat him on merit, then I think I'd look elsewhere. That's a short list. If you then reduce it to the available drivers it's even shorter. IMO the only ones in that bracket are Verstappen, Alonso, maybe Ricciardo and increasingly less so...Vettel. And if I can't see a healthy dynamic there with anyone but Ricciardo.

Question is - do you want that. Assuming they win the WDC and WCC why risk anything by having two "alpha" drivers.

Fact is Bottas is pretty much the perfect driver for Merc as long as Hamilton is in the other car,

I agree on most of this. The thing is that Hamilton won't be there forever and, at some point, Mercedes will need to consider what to do about lining up a proper replacement. Max and Charles frankly are the only two qualified candidates. They are both young enough and talented enough to make Mercedes feel that they can build around them for the long run. I don't think Charles is going anywhere so that basically leaves just one guy. The question is, when? Do they sign Lewis to one more 2-3 year contract and then plan to bring in Max when that is over and Lewis likely retires from the sport or do they attempt to team them together?


Unless someone else emerges. I think that when Hamilton reaches 36/37 if Verstappen becomes available they have to sign him. Hamilton will have the choice to race him or leave. A but like Ferrari and Schumacher in 2006.


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PostPosted: Wed Sep 18, 2019 1:37 pm 
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UnlikeUday wrote:
Apparently Bottas said he's completely free in 2021. Wonder if Mercedes have told him he'll be replaced in 2021 by Ocon or Russell?

I think that's more semantics than anything, Mercedes had an option on him for next year which Bottas had to wait on.

Would Bottas rush to sign for another team before waiting on what Mercedes decide to do for 2021?

Maybe if the likes of either Ferrari or Red Bull came a calling or a multi-year deal with Renault or McLaren?

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2013: 5th Place
2014: Champion
2015: 3rd Place
2016: 4th Place

2017: 9th Place
2018: 7th place
2019: Currently 26th

Wins: Canada 2018, Abu Dhabi 2017
Podiums: (8)


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PostPosted: Wed Sep 18, 2019 1:45 pm 
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mikeyg123 wrote:
sandman1347 wrote:
DOLOMITE wrote:
I'm with the "all depends on who the replacement might be" brigade. The way I'd see it is that you have the ultimate base line in Hamilton. If you're KO assuming that he can get the best out of the car every race, the most you can hope for your other driver is 1) they follow him home and don't let other cars get inbetween and 2) they pick up the points when Hamiton can't for whatever reason.

By those measure I'd say overall Bottas is still doing the job. Just. In 9 of 14 races they have finished in sequential positions.

Bottas is 2nd in the WDC with Hamilton first. Hamilton has scored an av of 20pts/race and Bottas 16. That's basically 2nd and 3rd place.

So as a No 2 or dare I say it, wingman I would retain him.

BUT...

If you want someone to push Hamilton harder and beat him on merit, then I think I'd look elsewhere. That's a short list. If you then reduce it to the available drivers it's even shorter. IMO the only ones in that bracket are Verstappen, Alonso, maybe Ricciardo and increasingly less so...Vettel. And if I can't see a healthy dynamic there with anyone but Ricciardo.

Question is - do you want that. Assuming they win the WDC and WCC why risk anything by having two "alpha" drivers.

Fact is Bottas is pretty much the perfect driver for Merc as long as Hamilton is in the other car,

I agree on most of this. The thing is that Hamilton won't be there forever and, at some point, Mercedes will need to consider what to do about lining up a proper replacement. Max and Charles frankly are the only two qualified candidates. They are both young enough and talented enough to make Mercedes feel that they can build around them for the long run. I don't think Charles is going anywhere so that basically leaves just one guy. The question is, when? Do they sign Lewis to one more 2-3 year contract and then plan to bring in Max when that is over and Lewis likely retires from the sport or do they attempt to team them together?


Unless someone else emerges. I think that when Hamilton reaches 36/37 if Verstappen becomes available they have to sign him. Hamilton will have the choice to race him or leave. A but like Ferrari and Schumacher in 2006.

Yeah I can see that playing out as well, at about 37/38 Hamilton is maybe on the cusp of starting to decline, he has one 2/3 year contract whilst still in his prime and team leader at Mercedes, then beyond that Mercedes have to start thinking about succession planning.

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2013: 5th Place
2014: Champion
2015: 3rd Place
2016: 4th Place

2017: 9th Place
2018: 7th place
2019: Currently 26th

Wins: Canada 2018, Abu Dhabi 2017
Podiums: (8)


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PostPosted: Thu Sep 19, 2019 6:31 am 
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TheGiantHogweed wrote:
UnlikeUday wrote:
Verstappen is closing in on Bottas. I think there's a good chance Bottas may finish 3rd in the WDC table. Not looking good for Bottas.

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Source - Imgur

yea because bottas retired by crashing out the one and only time he has and Verstappen won. I think it is unlikely that this year will go by without one of Verstappen's risky moves having bad consequences. I doubt Bottas will do this again and I think the mercedes car will give Bottas enough of an advantage to extend that gap.


I forgot that i said this. Wasn't long before it was true - twice :lol:

I expected it would be because of this and the Mercedes advantage that Bottas will likely remain safe. Plus he also still seems to have more or less the same aggression and pace he had at the start of the season, which has faded nowhere near as much as the last 2 seasons. I expect 2 is where he will finish this year.


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PostPosted: Thu Sep 19, 2019 11:19 pm 
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TheGiantHogweed wrote:
TheGiantHogweed wrote:
UnlikeUday wrote:
Verstappen is closing in on Bottas. I think there's a good chance Bottas may finish 3rd in the WDC table. Not looking good for Bottas.

Image
Source - Imgur

yea because bottas retired by crashing out the one and only time he has and Verstappen won. I think it is unlikely that this year will go by without one of Verstappen's risky moves having bad consequences. I doubt Bottas will do this again and I think the mercedes car will give Bottas enough of an advantage to extend that gap.


I forgot that i said this. Wasn't long before it was true - twice :lol:

I expected it would be because of this and the Mercedes advantage that Bottas will likely remain safe. Plus he also still seems to have more or less the same aggression and pace he had at the start of the season, which has faded nowhere near as much as the last 2 seasons. I expect 2 is where he will finish this year.

I think you forget about Verstappen's engine penalty?

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PF1 Pick 10 Competition

2013: 5th Place
2014: Champion
2015: 3rd Place
2016: 4th Place

2017: 9th Place
2018: 7th place
2019: Currently 26th

Wins: Canada 2018, Abu Dhabi 2017
Podiums: (8)


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PostPosted: Fri Sep 20, 2019 6:24 am 
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pokerman wrote:
TheGiantHogweed wrote:
TheGiantHogweed wrote:
UnlikeUday wrote:
Verstappen is closing in on Bottas. I think there's a good chance Bottas may finish 3rd in the WDC table. Not looking good for Bottas.

Image
Source - Imgur

yea because bottas retired by crashing out the one and only time he has and Verstappen won. I think it is unlikely that this year will go by without one of Verstappen's risky moves having bad consequences. I doubt Bottas will do this again and I think the mercedes car will give Bottas enough of an advantage to extend that gap.


I forgot that i said this. Wasn't long before it was true - twice :lol:

I expected it would be because of this and the Mercedes advantage that Bottas will likely remain safe. Plus he also still seems to have more or less the same aggression and pace he had at the start of the season, which has faded nowhere near as much as the last 2 seasons. I expect 2 is where he will finish this year.

I think you forget about Verstappen's engine penalty?

Erm, no? why is that an excuse to crash into another car and have to replace your front wing? I knew this was at the back in Italy. This is an irrelevant reason for him causing damage to his car...

Some can have different opinions about the initial contact in Belgium, but the manner in which he drove and then crashed out was stupidly dangerous given he had a damaged car. He didn't attempt to slow down.


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PostPosted: Fri Sep 20, 2019 5:47 pm 
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TheGiantHogweed wrote:
pokerman wrote:
TheGiantHogweed wrote:
TheGiantHogweed wrote:
UnlikeUday wrote:
Verstappen is closing in on Bottas. I think there's a good chance Bottas may finish 3rd in the WDC table. Not looking good for Bottas.

Image
Source - Imgur

yea because bottas retired by crashing out the one and only time he has and Verstappen won. I think it is unlikely that this year will go by without one of Verstappen's risky moves having bad consequences. I doubt Bottas will do this again and I think the mercedes car will give Bottas enough of an advantage to extend that gap.


I forgot that i said this. Wasn't long before it was true - twice :lol:

I expected it would be because of this and the Mercedes advantage that Bottas will likely remain safe. Plus he also still seems to have more or less the same aggression and pace he had at the start of the season, which has faded nowhere near as much as the last 2 seasons. I expect 2 is where he will finish this year.

I think you forget about Verstappen's engine penalty?

Erm, no? why is that an excuse to crash into another car and have to replace your front wing? I knew this was at the back in Italy. This is an irrelevant reason for him causing damage to his car...

Some can have different opinions about the initial contact in Belgium, but the manner in which he drove and then crashed out was stupidly dangerous given he had a damaged car. He didn't attempt to slow down.

I just meant that in your initial summary you neglected to mention that Verstappen's ability to beat Bottas in the WDC will also be tempered by having to take engine penalties.

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2013: 5th Place
2014: Champion
2015: 3rd Place
2016: 4th Place

2017: 9th Place
2018: 7th place
2019: Currently 26th

Wins: Canada 2018, Abu Dhabi 2017
Podiums: (8)


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