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PostPosted: Mon Sep 09, 2019 9:11 am 
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F1 Racer wrote:
I would rate Hill, Hakkinen and Vettel fairly closely actually, and their careers kind of came undone in the same messy, and sudden ways.

I would agree with Hakkinen and Vettel being close, but I'd rate both substantially better than Hill.

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PostPosted: Mon Sep 09, 2019 9:27 am 
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Exediron wrote:
F1 Racer wrote:
I would rate Hill, Hakkinen and Vettel fairly closely actually, and their careers kind of came undone in the same messy, and sudden ways.

I would agree with Hakkinen and Vettel being close, but I'd rate both substantially better than Hill.

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PostPosted: Mon Sep 09, 2019 10:25 am 
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F1 Racer wrote:
Is it possible that Seb hasn't been that great since 2013? I mean he lost to Dan fair and square in 2014 and only had Kimi as a barometer since then. Yes he won some races over 2015 to 2018 but made some poor errors in 2017 and 2018 that cost him chances at the title in each of those years.

Maybe he never was that great as before that he only needed to beat an old Webber?


A driver is always first of all measured against his teammate so it's not Vettel got worse, but he's simply not as good as the guys driving next to him - Ricciardo and Leclerc


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PostPosted: Mon Sep 09, 2019 10:33 am 
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I might be wrong, but I think his wanting to emulate Schumi's glory years has increased the pressure for Vettel, and the longer it's gone on the harder it's got for him. I vaguely remember him saying not long after he first tested the Ferrari that he wanted to be the next German to make Ferrari dominant again. Maybe that was his undoing?

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PostPosted: Mon Sep 09, 2019 10:44 am 
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Exediron wrote:
F1 Racer wrote:
I would rate Hill, Hakkinen and Vettel fairly closely actually, and their careers kind of came undone in the same messy, and sudden ways.

I would agree with Hakkinen and Vettel being close, but I'd rate both substantially better than Hill.

Agree.

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PostPosted: Mon Sep 09, 2019 10:48 am 
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Covalent wrote:
I don't think Ferrari would seek to rid themselves of Vettel, but I do feel Vettel is just about done with F1. His current season is reminiscent of Häkkinen's swan song.

I believe Vettel will see out his contract, after all it's financially lucrative, also Ferrari know the mistakes it made with this year's car and will build a car next year with more downforce which may suit Vettel better and Vettel probably also thinks that?

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PostPosted: Mon Sep 09, 2019 10:51 am 
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trento wrote:
F1 Racer wrote:
Is it possible that Seb hasn't been that great since 2013? I mean he lost to Dan fair and square in 2014 and only had Kimi as a barometer since then. Yes he won some races over 2015 to 2018 but made some poor errors in 2017 and 2018 that cost him chances at the title in each of those years.

Maybe he never was that great as before that he only needed to beat an old Webber?


A driver is always first of all measured against his teammate so it's not Vettel got worse, but he's simply not as good as the guys driving next to him - Ricciardo and Leclerc

Yeah it's how you measure up against tier 1 drivers rather than tier 2 drivers.

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PostPosted: Mon Sep 09, 2019 11:08 am 
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Here is a thought...... Maybe Vettel hit his peak early and faded away - he doesn't look happy any more

You see it in other sports - look at tennis - just looking at guys who were the best players in the world at periods over the last 20 years.

Andre Agassi - built up to a top player, faded in the middle, and had an Indian summer in his career
Roger Federer - Been consistently excellent for 15 years, adapted his game as he has aged, slowly fading well into his 30's.
Pete Samprass - Built up, lasted a while then faded.
Andy Roddick/Leyton Hewitt - Burst on the scene, had a handful of great years.... and were done as a top players by 24-25yrs old.

Theres countless examples in Rugby, Football, Golf, etc, etc. Different athletes have different career paths.,

For Vettel, he is wealthy beyond his wildest dreams, 4x world championships and has a young family. After being the F1 golden boy - he then spent 3-4 years out of the spotlight, without a chance of winning - He has been under intense pressure to deliver at Ferrari, and it maybe isn't the right environment for him - I can absolutely see why his motivation and focus has dropped off that fraction - maybe other drivers would react differently.

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PostPosted: Mon Sep 09, 2019 11:29 am 
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Badgeronimous wrote:
Here is a thought...... Maybe Vettel hit his peak early and faded away - he doesn't look happy any more

You see it in other sports - look at tennis - just looking at guys who were the best players in the world at periods over the last 20 years.

Andre Agassi - built up to a top player, faded in the middle, and had an Indian summer in his career
Roger Federer - Been consistently excellent for 15 years, adapted his game as he has aged, slowly fading well into his 30's.
Pete Samprass - Built up, lasted a while then faded.
Andy Roddick/Leyton Hewitt - Burst on the scene, had a handful of great years.... and were done as a top players by 24-25yrs old.

Theres countless examples in Rugby, Football, Golf, etc, etc. Different athletes have different career paths.,

For Vettel, he is wealthy beyond his wildest dreams, 4x world championships and has a young family. After being the F1 golden boy - he then spent 3-4 years out of the spotlight, without a chance of winning - He has been under intense pressure to deliver at Ferrari, and it maybe isn't the right environment for him - I can absolutely see why his motivation and focus has dropped off that fraction - maybe other drivers would react differently.

I think he merely got overrated because of the car advantage he had early in his career, he's not quite as good as we once thought, he's still very good though apart from the silly mistakes.

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PostPosted: Mon Sep 09, 2019 11:55 am 
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pokerman wrote:
Badgeronimous wrote:
Here is a thought...... Maybe Vettel hit his peak early and faded away - he doesn't look happy any more

You see it in other sports - look at tennis - just looking at guys who were the best players in the world at periods over the last 20 years.

Andre Agassi - built up to a top player, faded in the middle, and had an Indian summer in his career
Roger Federer - Been consistently excellent for 15 years, adapted his game as he has aged, slowly fading well into his 30's.
Pete Samprass - Built up, lasted a while then faded.
Andy Roddick/Leyton Hewitt - Burst on the scene, had a handful of great years.... and were done as a top players by 24-25yrs old.

Theres countless examples in Rugby, Football, Golf, etc, etc. Different athletes have different career paths.,

For Vettel, he is wealthy beyond his wildest dreams, 4x world championships and has a young family. After being the F1 golden boy - he then spent 3-4 years out of the spotlight, without a chance of winning - He has been under intense pressure to deliver at Ferrari, and it maybe isn't the right environment for him - I can absolutely see why his motivation and focus has dropped off that fraction - maybe other drivers would react differently.

I think he merely got overrated because of the car advantage he had early in his career, he's not quite as good as we once thought, he's still very good though apart from the silly mistakes.


He struggled against Webber in the 1st half of 2012 when they banned the off throttle blown diffuser. After Silverstone, Webber was on 116, Vettel 100.

Then I think Newey worked out a way to compensate for the lack of rear down force in the 2nd half of the year. From Germany onwards, Vettel outscored Webber 181 to 63.

That can't be just down to driver skill.

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PostPosted: Mon Sep 09, 2019 12:52 pm 
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Some of us can make reasonably accurate predictions :) , from this Sep 2018 thread
Battle Far wrote:
Firstly, those who are worried about Leclerc not being allowed to race Vettel are deluded, give him 6 or so races and the only view of Leclerc that Vettel will have is of his gearbox...
Vettel was slower than Ricciardo and now is slower than Le Clerc, how many more team mates have to beat him before others acknowledge that he lucked in to the fastest car in F1 at a very young age


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PostPosted: Mon Sep 09, 2019 2:05 pm 
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No, there is no one better to replace him with. Maybe Mick Schumacher drives for Alpha next year and they promote him in 2021 when Vettel's contract expires. If he's ready that quickly.


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PostPosted: Mon Sep 09, 2019 2:06 pm 
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Vettel apparently is "not worried" about his form after Monza, https://www.bbc.co.uk/sport/formula1/49635086 saying his speed is still there.

I think he is missing the point myself, how many more points would Ferrari have if he hadn't made those errors, no point in being quick if you don't actually finish the race! Odd that he doesn't seem worried about wrecking another driver's race either.


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PostPosted: Mon Sep 09, 2019 3:51 pm 
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MistaVega23 wrote:
I might be wrong, but I think his wanting to emulate Schumi's glory years has increased the pressure for Vettel, and the longer it's gone on the harder it's got for him. I vaguely remember him saying not long after he first tested the Ferrari that he wanted to be the next German to make Ferrari dominant again. Maybe that was his undoing?


It was partially Ferrari's mistake in hiring him as he had lost to Ricciardo then. So looking simply at titles can be flawed. Ferrari needed to simply hire Ricciardo, who's clearly faster. Mercedes made the same mistake too with Schumi (looking at his 7 titles) when fact is, Rosberg beat him for a few years and then the rest is history.


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PostPosted: Mon Sep 09, 2019 3:52 pm 
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pokerman wrote:
Covalent wrote:
I don't think Ferrari would seek to rid themselves of Vettel, but I do feel Vettel is just about done with F1. His current season is reminiscent of Häkkinen's swan song.

I believe Vettel will see out his contract, after all it's financially lucrative, also Ferrari know the mistakes it made with this year's car and will build a car next year with more downforce which may suit Vettel better and Vettel probably also thinks that?


he had downforce with Red Bull and lost in 2014. While he may be more comfortable in next year's car compared with this year, it's no guarantee he can beat Leclerc.


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PostPosted: Mon Sep 09, 2019 3:54 pm 
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Badgeronimous wrote:
Here is a thought...... Maybe Vettel hit his peak early and faded away - he doesn't look happy any more

You see it in other sports - look at tennis - just looking at guys who were the best players in the world at periods over the last 20 years.

Andre Agassi - built up to a top player, faded in the middle, and had an Indian summer in his career
Roger Federer - Been consistently excellent for 15 years, adapted his game as he has aged, slowly fading well into his 30's.
Pete Samprass - Built up, lasted a while then faded.
Andy Roddick/Leyton Hewitt - Burst on the scene, had a handful of great years.... and were done as a top players by 24-25yrs old.

Theres countless examples in Rugby, Football, Golf, etc, etc. Different athletes have different career paths.,

For Vettel, he is wealthy beyond his wildest dreams, 4x world championships and has a young family. After being the F1 golden boy - he then spent 3-4 years out of the spotlight, without a chance of winning - He has been under intense pressure to deliver at Ferrari, and it maybe isn't the right environment for him - I can absolutely see why his motivation and focus has dropped off that fraction - maybe other drivers would react differently.


then how do u explain 2014 in Red Bull?


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PostPosted: Mon Sep 09, 2019 3:55 pm 
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I think a happy Vettel, in a car he likes, is still a force to be reckoned with.

An on form Vettel may still be the fastest guy on the grid.

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Last edited by Badgeronimous on Mon Sep 09, 2019 3:55 pm, edited 1 time in total.

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PostPosted: Mon Sep 09, 2019 3:55 pm 
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Vettel Fan wrote:
No, there is no one better to replace him with. Maybe Mick Schumacher drives for Alpha next year and they promote him in 2021 when Vettel's contract expires. If he's ready that quickly.


Ricciardo. I remember reading somewhere there's an opt out clause at Renault.


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PostPosted: Mon Sep 09, 2019 3:58 pm 
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Badgeronimous wrote:
I think a happy Vettel, in a car he likes, is still a force to be reckoned with.

An on form Vettel may still be the fastest guy on the grid.


As mentioned, he was happy in Red Bull in 2014....and lost to Ricciardo.

Many are missing the point. F1 is not about how happy u r with the car. It's about how u can beat all other drivers, starting with your teammate. Alonso was rarely happy with his Ferrari and completely thrashed all his teammates. That's why team bosses rate him highly. You're always compared to the driver next to you.


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PostPosted: Mon Sep 09, 2019 3:59 pm 
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Option or Prime wrote:
Vettel apparently is "not worried" about his form after Monza, https://www.bbc.co.uk/sport/formula1/49635086 saying his speed is still there.

I think he is missing the point myself, how many more points would Ferrari have if he hadn't made those errors, no point in being quick if you don't actually finish the race! Odd that he doesn't seem worried about wrecking another driver's race either.


with another tens of million waiting for him in 2020, why should he other than see out his contract and retire after.


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PostPosted: Mon Sep 09, 2019 5:06 pm 
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Tricky one isn't it. Assuming Ferrari don't drop him..

Scenario 1: Form continues as is and Vettel is beaten by a newbie
Vettel has the option to walk away a beaten man or come back and reassert himself but Leclerc will only get better over next couple of years so that's not easy.

Scenario 2: Vettel sorts it out and manages to shade Leclerc by year end
Well that's a big ask, but if he manages it, he can walk away a year early and appear afraid of the fight next year or stay on and hope Leclerc doesn't get even better...which he should.

I honestly can't see this ending well for Vettel unless he really gets his act together or Leclerc implodes and on current form I don't see either happening.

Always been hard to rate Vettel but this won't go in his favour that's for sure.

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PostPosted: Mon Sep 09, 2019 5:20 pm 
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Badgeronimous wrote:
I think a happy Vettel, in a car he likes, is still a force to be reckoned with.

An on form Vettel may still be the fastest guy on the grid.


Can you really see him racing with Leclerc in the way Hamilton did?


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PostPosted: Mon Sep 09, 2019 5:26 pm 
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Ferrari won't sack him, they are not like Red Bull in that respect when they said Gasly will see the year out then replace him. The seat is his for next year, the only way he will not be there is if he decides not to be a number 2.


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PostPosted: Mon Sep 09, 2019 5:30 pm 
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Vettel is only 13 points behind Leclerc at the moment, and that is despite a 37 point swing in Leclerc's favour in the past two races. Not bad for a driver who's supposedly finished in F1. I think the past two races have masked the fact that Leclerc has not had a great season either, with some crucial errors and being generally outpaced by Vettel in the early races. Leclerc is no doubt Ferrari's best long-term option, but for next year I don't think he's done enough for Ferrari to consider dropping their nominally "lead" driver at great expense and signing a subservient replacement.

Vettel is still Ferrari's best option for that seat. I think the bigger question is whether he himself will take the decision to walk away.


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PostPosted: Mon Sep 09, 2019 5:53 pm 
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Option or Prime wrote:
Badgeronimous wrote:
I think a happy Vettel, in a car he likes, is still a force to be reckoned with.

An on form Vettel may still be the fastest guy on the grid.


Can you really see him racing with Leclerc in the way Hamilton did?


No I don't - but I also don't see anyone else doing what he did in 2011 and 2013.

I don't hold Vettel in the top tier of drivers btw - but when conditions were right for him, he was terrific.

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PostPosted: Mon Sep 09, 2019 5:54 pm 
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Vettel Fan wrote:
No, there is no one better to replace him with. Maybe Mick Schumacher drives for Alpha next year and they promote him in 2021 when Vettel's contract expires. If he's ready that quickly.


I don't watch much of F2 but looking at it, I wouldn't be surprised if Mick Schumacher is never ready. Would like to be proved wrong and next season will tell us more.


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PostPosted: Mon Sep 09, 2019 5:57 pm 
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Option or Prime wrote:
Badgeronimous wrote:
I think a happy Vettel, in a car he likes, is still a force to be reckoned with.

An on form Vettel may still be the fastest guy on the grid.


Can you really see him racing with Leclerc in the way Hamilton did?


Maybe not, but i can see him out qualifying Leclerc, and then making it almost impossible for him to pass.


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PostPosted: Mon Sep 09, 2019 6:38 pm 
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I don't think they should drop Vettel for 3 reasons:

1.He's a 4 time World champion!
2 Experienced !!!! Will help Charles in the WC :)
3. If he has lost form, he might get it back!..????

I cannot see Ferrari gaining ground till 2021, Mercedes will win again and it's up to Hamilton to provide the challenge.


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PostPosted: Mon Sep 09, 2019 8:25 pm 
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If they didn't sack Kimi Raikonnen after performing so slowly against Alonso & Vettel, why are they going to sack Vettel after a 12 month period of mistakes? Even when Raikonnen left it was for Alfa Romeo. The fact is Ferrari know they have got an unstable car and lack of downforce and the drivers are having to suffer. Let's not forget Vettel could have won at Canada, so he is not washed up yet.


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PostPosted: Mon Sep 09, 2019 8:57 pm 
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Option or Prime wrote:
Vettel apparently is "not worried" about his form after Monza, https://www.bbc.co.uk/sport/formula1/49635086 saying his speed is still there.

I think he is missing the point myself, how many more points would Ferrari have if he hadn't made those errors, no point in being quick if you don't actually finish the race! Odd that he doesn't seem worried about wrecking another driver's race either.

I think he's focusing on the speed to make himself feel better. He probably knows as well as anyone that the mistakes are the problem, not the speed. But he's telling himself that since he still has the speed there's no reason he can't clean up the mistakes as early as the very next GP -- which is true, but this is a pattern that's been ongoing for almost four years now. It's starting to become very questionable that this is just a phase Vettel is going through.

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PostPosted: Tue Sep 10, 2019 2:52 am 
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Badgeronimous wrote:
Option or Prime wrote:
Badgeronimous wrote:
I think a happy Vettel, in a car he likes, is still a force to be reckoned with.

An on form Vettel may still be the fastest guy on the grid.


Can you really see him racing with Leclerc in the way Hamilton did?


No I don't - but I also don't see anyone else doing what he did in 2011 and 2013.

I don't hold Vettel in the top tier of drivers btw - but when conditions were right for him, he was terrific.

Conditions were right for him in 2014 and he couldn't do it


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PostPosted: Tue Sep 10, 2019 9:27 am 
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Exediron wrote:
Option or Prime wrote:
Vettel apparently is "not worried" about his form after Monza, https://www.bbc.co.uk/sport/formula1/49635086 saying his speed is still there.

I think he is missing the point myself, how many more points would Ferrari have if he hadn't made those errors, no point in being quick if you don't actually finish the race! Odd that he doesn't seem worried about wrecking another driver's race either.

I think he's focusing on the speed to make himself feel better. He probably knows as well as anyone that the mistakes are the problem, not the speed. But he's telling himself that since he still has the speed there's no reason he can't clean up the mistakes as early as the very next GP -- which is true, but this is a pattern that's been ongoing for almost four years now. It's starting to become very questionable that this is just a phase Vettel is going through.

His form is firmly within Grosjean territory; the fact he's driving for Ferrari is making it worse. If it was a midfield team he'd have been let go by now (or end of the year at least).

With Leclerc on the run he is on, one more mistake from Vettel between now and Abu Dhabi and he's done.

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PostPosted: Tue Sep 10, 2019 9:41 am 
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Ferrari and vettel are done he will be of at the end of the season

There is no other top team for him to go

Is only option is to stay and try and find a team come 2021 and in the meantime play the barrichello role

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PostPosted: Tue Sep 10, 2019 9:54 am 
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lord byron wrote:
Ferrari and vettel are done he will be of at the end of the season

There is no other top team for him to go

Is only option is to stay and try and find a team come 2021 and in the meantime play the barrichello role

I doubt he'd settle for that. No 4xWDC (no matter what current form they're in) would play No.2 to a 21 year old.

If he has an error-free run to the end of the season, he needs a LONG winter to refocus and re-establish himself on an equal footing with Leclerc.

I hope to see it, as what a titanic battle that would be for next season - Lewis, Seb, Max and Charles going toe-to-toe.

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PostPosted: Tue Sep 10, 2019 9:54 am 
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F1 Racer wrote:
Maybe he never was that great as before that he only needed to beat an old Webber?

Bingo

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PostPosted: Tue Sep 10, 2019 10:15 am 
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I remember back in the day when Vettel was expected to beat the lot of them.

March I think it was.


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PostPosted: Tue Sep 10, 2019 10:21 am 
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I will be surprised if, assuming he's outclassed by Leclerc for the rest of the season, Vettel does not call time on his career. Surely as a 4x champ he cannot settle for being a number 2, and he can't claim that a move to another team would revitalise him. That worked when it was Ricciardo who beat him up, but he can't use the same excuse twice. I think his desire to win has waned, not least because he no longer believes he can beat Hamilton & Mercedes. With that mindset he cannot produce 100% any more..


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PostPosted: Tue Sep 10, 2019 3:56 pm 
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One has to ask. Is Vettel Raikkonen 2.0?

The latter half of their careers really told a different story making you re-assess their earlier career. Is Vettel just an average driver?

In 2014 he lost to Ricciardo. Then for 4 years he was many times much closer to Raikkonen than he should have been. Alonso completely thrashed Raikkonen like a wet rag, but Vettel was still losing in quali to a much older Raikkonen.

Now he's on his way to losing to Leclerc.

One feels sad for Vettel, really.


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PostPosted: Tue Sep 10, 2019 5:26 pm 
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Badgeronimous wrote:
Here is a thought...... Maybe Vettel hit his peak early and faded away - he doesn't look happy any more

You see it in other sports - look at tennis - just looking at guys who were the best players in the world at periods over the last 20 years.

Andre Agassi - built up to a top player, faded in the middle, and had an Indian summer in his career
Roger Federer - Been consistently excellent for 15 years, adapted his game as he has aged, slowly fading well into his 30's.
Pete Samprass - Built up, lasted a while then faded.
Andy Roddick/Leyton Hewitt - Burst on the scene, had a handful of great years.... and were done as a top players by 24-25yrs old.

Theres countless examples in Rugby, Football, Golf, etc, etc. Different athletes have different career paths.,

For Vettel, he is wealthy beyond his wildest dreams, 4x world championships and has a young family. After being the F1 golden boy - he then spent 3-4 years out of the spotlight, without a chance of winning - He has been under intense pressure to deliver at Ferrari, and it maybe isn't the right environment for him - I can absolutely see why his motivation and focus has dropped off that fraction - maybe other drivers would react differently.


Physical sports aren’t comparable to something like racing, yes racing has physical demands but it’s nowhere near the same, experience is way more important. A lot of those declines you mention above are related to injuries. Just look at Nadal in Tennis, no where for 4-5 years due to injury and now the same with Murray. That simply doesn’t happen in racing.

The absolute peak of a tennis player used to be 21-27 but that has changed with freaks like Federer but he is probably the best ever. Players like Roddick/Hewitt started to look worse due to the level Federer raised it to.


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PostPosted: Tue Sep 10, 2019 5:37 pm 
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Every time a younger driver on a lower wage out performs a “star” driver, the star gets moved on.

Raikkonen 2009, moved out of Ferrari after being no better than Massa but earning 5x more

Alonso 2007, moved out of Mclaren as they could afford to let him go as they had a star in Hamilton who earned less than Alonso even when given a new deal for 08.

Vettel 2014, Ricciardo earned a fraction but was quicker. Vettel allowed to leave.

To a lesser extent Verstappen then did the same to Ricciardo but in a less extreme way.

Leclerc will get a pay rise but he is reportedly on 8x less than Vettel. Vettel might last one more year but no way that situation holds if it remains the same on track. Ferrari will not pay two drivers huge salaries. If Vettel is earning $30m and Leclerc $4m. I see them putting Leclerc up to $10m for next year and then letting Vettel leave, if Leclerc has another great 2020 then up to $15m. That’s what happened with Hamiton and Verstappen.


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