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Which driver will win the Renault TMW vote in 2020?
Poll ended at Mon Feb 10, 2020 4:27 pm
Daniel Ricciardo 82%  82%  [ 14 ]
Esteban Ocon 18%  18%  [ 3 ]
Total votes : 17
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PostPosted: Wed Feb 05, 2020 4:27 pm 
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We now move into the top five of last year's standings in our TMW prediction threads, starting with what promises to be a very intriguing pairing at Renault: Daniel Ricciardo vs Esteban Ocon.

For both drivers you could count 2019 as something of a lost season. From Daniel Ricciardo's point of view, his move to Renault didn't result in any immediate success with the Enstone squad actually slipping back behind their customer team, rather than making any strides towards the top three. Meanwhile Red Bull did make tangible progress forwards, with Max Verstappen winning three races and finishing third in the WDC. Only the lack of a stronger partner prevented Red Bull from taking a serious run at Ferrari for 2nd in the WCC. Hopes are high that the move to Honda was the correct one and that 2020 might even see them (well, Max) in the fight for the WDC. All of that means that right now, Ricciardo's departure from Red Bull looks like being a mistake, depending on how you view his ability to challenge Max, anyway! If Renault can have a better 2020 then that would help a little, but it's difficult to imagine that being anything more than 4th in the WCC. So all eyes will be on 2021. Will Ricciardo still even be with them at that point?

For Esteban Ocon, 2019 was definitely a lost season on the basis that he wasn't even racing. Despite that, his stock hasn't really dropped - Mercedes contemplated dropping Bottas for him and Renault were more than happy to snap him up when they opted not to. If he struggles a little at the first few races then we'll be subjected to the inevitable comments about him being rusty after a season out, but strong early performances and everyone will be talking about how it was a travesty he was ever off the grid. Either way, he already has the security of knowing he has a contract in place for 2021, but if he is to keep his reputation as one of F1's better young drivers, he can't spend a season getting outshone by Ricciardo. Conversely, if he's able to match Danny Ric - or even outperform him - then his reputation is going to absolutely skyrocket, and in those circumstances I bet we'll see a few stories linking him with an immediate move back to Mercedes even though he's got a contract with Renault for '21.

The big question is how the pair will stack up. Daniel Ricciardo must surely go into the season as the favourite, based on his success and experience to this point, not to mention the way he saw off Nico Hulkenberg. But does Ocon's reputation from before mean there is an expectation that he can get the better of Ricciardo?

2019 TMW Result
Daniel Ricciardo over Nico Hulkenberg (17-4, 64%)
87% of votes pre-season votes correctly predicted Ricciardo would triumph

2020 Prediction Results
AlphaTauri: Pierre Gasly 82% - 18% Daniil Kvyat
Racing Point: Sergio Perez 88% - 13% Lance Stroll
Alfa Romeo: Kimi Raikkonen 86% - 14% Antonio Giovinazzi
Haas: Kevin Magnussen 71% - 29% Romain Grosjean
Williams: George Russell 95% - 5% Nicholas Latifi

It looks like we're all playing it very safe as we've now predicted five out of five of the drivers who won their TMW in 2019 will repeat in 2020, and all with pretty comfortable margins. Pierre Gasly is the latest example of this with the PF1 Forum predicting he'll have a much more comfortable 2020 than he did 2019.

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2019: 11th | 2018: 5th | 2017: 6th | 2016: 8th | 2015: 2nd | 2014: 15th | 2013: 17th | 2012: 11th


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PostPosted: Wed Feb 05, 2020 6:02 pm 
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I would put Ocon on a similar level to the Hulk and Ricciardo beat the Hulk despite being new to the team, then factor in that Ocon this time is going to be new to the team plus he's had a year out of F1 then I can't see past Ricciardo coming out on top.

Ocon needs to improve upon what I've seen from him thus far to have a chance which is possible given that he's still relatively inexperienced but there's no guarantee that he will.

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2014: Champion
2015: 3rd Place
2016: 4th Place

2017: 9th Place
2018: 7th place

Wins: Canada 2018, Abu Dhabi 2017
Podiums: (8)


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PostPosted: Wed Feb 05, 2020 6:11 pm 
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My guess is Ricciardo starts off better with Ocon closing the gap after mid season. It wouldn't surprise me to see them equal in 2021 but for 2020 I think Ricciardo edges it.

I do think Ocon is better than people think though. I think he has potential to be better than Perez which means better than Hulkneberg.


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PostPosted: Wed Feb 05, 2020 10:12 pm 
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mikeyg123 wrote:
My guess is Ricciardo starts off better with Ocon closing the gap after mid season. It wouldn't surprise me to see them equal in 2021 but for 2020 I think Ricciardo edges it.

I do think Ocon is better than people think though. I think he has potential to be better than Perez which means better than Hulkneberg.

Ricciardo may not be at Renault next year?

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PF1 Pick 10 Competition

2013: 5th Place
2014: Champion
2015: 3rd Place
2016: 4th Place

2017: 9th Place
2018: 7th place

Wins: Canada 2018, Abu Dhabi 2017
Podiums: (8)


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PostPosted: Wed Feb 05, 2020 10:26 pm 
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pokerman wrote:
mikeyg123 wrote:
My guess is Ricciardo starts off better with Ocon closing the gap after mid season. It wouldn't surprise me to see them equal in 2021 but for 2020 I think Ricciardo edges it.

I do think Ocon is better than people think though. I think he has potential to be better than Perez which means better than Hulkneberg.

Ricciardo may not be at Renault next year?


Obviously my post assumes he is.


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PostPosted: Thu Feb 06, 2020 12:41 am 
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I'm giving it to Ricciardo. I see Ocon as being better than Hulk (only a little, though), but Ricciardo will have had a year to familiarize himself with the team. Almost all of Hulk's success against Danny Ric came at the start of the year, and I don't foresee RIC struggling the same way this time.

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PostPosted: Thu Feb 06, 2020 11:11 am 
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I think Ricciardo will win this one. Qualifying between the pair will be close but I think Ricciardo will edge it on race day.

I agree with mikey in that Ocon is better than most on this forum seem to think. With a bit of experience I think he could be seen as what some see Perez as.


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PostPosted: Thu Feb 06, 2020 12:49 pm 
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mikeyg123 wrote:
My guess is Ricciardo starts off better with Ocon closing the gap after mid season. It wouldn't surprise me to see them equal in 2021 but for 2020 I think Ricciardo edges it.

I do think Ocon is better than people think though. I think he has potential to be better than Perez which means better than Hulkneberg.


:thumbup: :nod:

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PostPosted: Thu Feb 06, 2020 1:15 pm 
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JN23 wrote:
I think Ricciardo will win this one. Qualifying between the pair will be close but I think Ricciardo will edge it on race day.

I agree with mikey in that Ocon is better than most on this forum seem to think. With a bit of experience I think he could be seen as what some see Perez as.

For me he already is about as good as Perez, I'm not sure his ultimate goal would be to be seen as good as Perez in particular as I don't see Perez as being as good as Ricciardo.

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PF1 Pick 10 Competition

2013: 5th Place
2014: Champion
2015: 3rd Place
2016: 4th Place

2017: 9th Place
2018: 7th place

Wins: Canada 2018, Abu Dhabi 2017
Podiums: (8)


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PostPosted: Fri Feb 07, 2020 10:52 am 
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pokerman wrote:
JN23 wrote:
I think Ricciardo will win this one. Qualifying between the pair will be close but I think Ricciardo will edge it on race day.

I agree with mikey in that Ocon is better than most on this forum seem to think. With a bit of experience I think he could be seen as what some see Perez as.

For me he already is about as good as Perez, I'm not sure his ultimate goal would be to be seen as good as Perez in particular as I don't see Perez as being as good as Ricciardo.


I'd agree with the Perez/Ocon comparison. I remember making exactly that point before on here that Ocon comparing with Perez as well as he did at Force India, despite his relative inexperience, was a good sign that his peak is being better than Perez. Conversely, the fact that he wasn't further ahead of Perez suggests that if he does live up to his potential, he's still going to fall short of ever being a top tier driver.

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Pick 10 | 1st x3, 2nd x3, 3rd x8
2019: 11th | 2018: 5th | 2017: 6th | 2016: 8th | 2015: 2nd | 2014: 15th | 2013: 17th | 2012: 11th


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PostPosted: Fri Feb 07, 2020 11:18 am 
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Jenson's Understeer wrote:
pokerman wrote:
JN23 wrote:
I think Ricciardo will win this one. Qualifying between the pair will be close but I think Ricciardo will edge it on race day.

I agree with mikey in that Ocon is better than most on this forum seem to think. With a bit of experience I think he could be seen as what some see Perez as.

For me he already is about as good as Perez, I'm not sure his ultimate goal would be to be seen as good as Perez in particular as I don't see Perez as being as good as Ricciardo.


I'd agree with the Perez/Ocon comparison. I remember making exactly that point before on here that Ocon comparing with Perez as well as he did at Force India, despite his relative inexperience, was a good sign that his peak is being better than Perez. Conversely, the fact that he wasn't further ahead of Perez suggests that if he does live up to his potential, he's still going to fall short of ever being a top tier driver.


I agree with summery. I think he has every chance of being a Button or Nico Rosberg level driver but probably falls short of Hamilton or Alonso.


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PostPosted: Fri Feb 07, 2020 12:28 pm 
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mikeyg123 wrote:
Jenson's Understeer wrote:
pokerman wrote:
JN23 wrote:
I think Ricciardo will win this one. Qualifying between the pair will be close but I think Ricciardo will edge it on race day.

I agree with mikey in that Ocon is better than most on this forum seem to think. With a bit of experience I think he could be seen as what some see Perez as.

For me he already is about as good as Perez, I'm not sure his ultimate goal would be to be seen as good as Perez in particular as I don't see Perez as being as good as Ricciardo.


I'd agree with the Perez/Ocon comparison. I remember making exactly that point before on here that Ocon comparing with Perez as well as he did at Force India, despite his relative inexperience, was a good sign that his peak is being better than Perez. Conversely, the fact that he wasn't further ahead of Perez suggests that if he does live up to his potential, he's still going to fall short of ever being a top tier driver.


I agree with summery. I think he has every chance of being a Button or Nico Rosberg level driver but probably falls short of Hamilton or Alonso.


👍


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