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PostPosted: Sun Nov 18, 2012 12:07 pm 
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Has anyone done a reasonable score of where Lewis might have been had it not been for the various McLaren problems, and being crashed into by Maldonado and Grosjean?


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PostPosted: Sun Nov 18, 2012 12:10 pm 
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Possible score, yes - on many occasions. Reasonable..? That's a debatable point...

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PostPosted: Sun Nov 18, 2012 12:12 pm 
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SWAN wrote:
Has anyone done a reasonable score of where Lewis might have been had it not been for the various McLaren problems, and being crashed into by Maldonado and Grosjean?



Yeah there was one or two threads kicking about a few weeks ago. Depending on how many assumptions were made it ranged from still being in championship to already winning it by Abu Dhabi.

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PostPosted: Sun Nov 18, 2012 12:17 pm 
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If lewis gets to nullify any bad luck in this scenario do the other drivers as well? Or is it a one way street?


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PostPosted: Sun Nov 18, 2012 12:33 pm 
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25 points lost because of mechanical failure in Abu Dhabi
25 points lost because of mechanical failure in Singapore
25 points lost in spain because of disqualification in qualifying
+ others

These would have been relatively easy points, but he still lost them.

You cant just add these on to Hamilton's score to work out where he would be unless you work out everyone else lost points (Vettel's alternator issue in Valencia costing him 25 points, etc.)


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PostPosted: Sun Nov 18, 2012 12:52 pm 
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Well, he lost 2 easy wins because of reliability issues (Singapore and Abu Dhabi), was disqualified from qualifying in Spain (possibly lost a win/podium), taken out by Maldonado in Valencia (although that was partially Lewis' fault, he was defending a position on terribly worn tyres that he would have lost in the DRS zone/last lap anyway), inconsistent pit stops from McLaren earlier on in the year, taken out by Grosjean at Spa, etc.

But overall, it's difficult to accurately quantify, because Vettel has had reliability issues with the Renault alternator (Valencia and Monza), and Alonso was taken out by Grosjean also in Spa.

However, I believe that Lewis would undoubtedly still be in the Championship fight if all those things didn't happen to him, because most of those things were not his fault but McLaren's. It's clear to see that Lewis has had far worse luck compared to Vettel and Alonso.

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PostPosted: Sun Nov 18, 2012 1:00 pm 
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dannyjames8 wrote:
25 points lost because of mechanical failure in Abu Dhabi
25 points lost because of mechanical failure in Singapore
25 points lost in spain because of disqualification in qualifying
+ others

These would have been relatively easy points, but he still lost them.

You cant just add these on to Hamilton's score to work out where he would be unless you work out everyone else lost points (Vettel's alternator issue in Valencia costing him 25 points, etc.)

I don't think you can count his disqualification as a loss of 25 guaranteed points. He was short fuelled - so might not have got pole with a legal fuel level, so wasn't guaranteed to be leading at any point.

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PostPosted: Sun Nov 18, 2012 1:03 pm 
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Seanie wrote:
dannyjames8 wrote:
25 points lost because of mechanical failure in Abu Dhabi
25 points lost because of mechanical failure in Singapore
25 points lost in spain because of disqualification in qualifying
+ others

These would have been relatively easy points, but he still lost them.

You cant just add these on to Hamilton's score to work out where he would be unless you work out everyone else lost points (Vettel's alternator issue in Valencia costing him 25 points, etc.)

I don't think you can count his disqualification as a loss of 25 guaranteed points. He was short fuelled - so might not have got pole with a legal fuel level, so wasn't guaranteed to be leading at any point.


While I agree that it's a bit of a stretch to credit 25 points for Barcelona as some kind of sure thing, I do remember that it was calculated that adding enough fuel to be legal would have added no more than a tenth and that would still have given Hamilton a very comfortable pole.


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PostPosted: Sun Nov 18, 2012 1:06 pm 
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Lojik wrote:
Seanie wrote:
dannyjames8 wrote:
25 points lost because of mechanical failure in Abu Dhabi
25 points lost because of mechanical failure in Singapore
25 points lost in spain because of disqualification in qualifying
+ others

These would have been relatively easy points, but he still lost them.

You cant just add these on to Hamilton's score to work out where he would be unless you work out everyone else lost points (Vettel's alternator issue in Valencia costing him 25 points, etc.)

I don't think you can count his disqualification as a loss of 25 guaranteed points. He was short fuelled - so might not have got pole with a legal fuel level, so wasn't guaranteed to be leading at any point.


While I agree that it's a bit of a stretch to credit 25 points for Barcelona as some kind of sure thing, I do remember that it was calculated that adding enough fuel to be legal would have added no more than a tenth and that would still have given Hamilton a very comfortable pole.
But the lap might have turned differently with the extra fuel. You can't say for sure it would just have been a tenth slower.

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PostPosted: Sun Nov 18, 2012 1:08 pm 
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If people are going to talk about where Hamilton would be in the championship had he not lost any points, why don't we include things such as cars around/ahead of him of which had bad stops, crashed, went off the track, had drive throughs etc. which ultimately led to Hamilton getting ahead? What about the points other drivers lost. It's not particularly fair if you said "Hamilton would be here had he not lost points here, here and here." and then not include x, y and z races for another driver. I'm not trying to bash Hamilton, not by any means, but what's fair is fair.

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PostPosted: Sun Nov 18, 2012 1:09 pm 
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Seanie wrote:
Lojik wrote:
Seanie wrote:
dannyjames8 wrote:
25 points lost because of mechanical failure in Abu Dhabi
25 points lost because of mechanical failure in Singapore
25 points lost in spain because of disqualification in qualifying
+ others

These would have been relatively easy points, but he still lost them.

You cant just add these on to Hamilton's score to work out where he would be unless you work out everyone else lost points (Vettel's alternator issue in Valencia costing him 25 points, etc.)

I don't think you can count his disqualification as a loss of 25 guaranteed points. He was short fuelled - so might not have got pole with a legal fuel level, so wasn't guaranteed to be leading at any point.


While I agree that it's a bit of a stretch to credit 25 points for Barcelona as some kind of sure thing, I do remember that it was calculated that adding enough fuel to be legal would have added no more than a tenth and that would still have given Hamilton a very comfortable pole.
But the lap might have turned differently with the extra fuel. You can't say for sure it would just have been a tenth slower.



Never mind that, with a three way fight at the front, they could have ruined their tyres handing the win to Kimi.

But rest assured, somewhere in a galaxy far far away in a parallel dimension Lewis was a WDC by spa and I'm playing bass in BLS.

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PostPosted: Sun Nov 18, 2012 2:25 pm 
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Actually had HAmilton not lost all those points ALonso and Vettel would have been gifted less points too, we need to include x, y and z on them too, so Hamilton would've further passed them in the standings.

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PostPosted: Sun Nov 18, 2012 2:26 pm 
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I'm just saying its a simple question, why complicate it?

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PostPosted: Sun Nov 18, 2012 2:28 pm 
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f1madman wrote:
I'm just saying its a simple question, why complicate it?


Hamilton would be leading the championship for sure. Still, McLaren are the ones who have messed up, I don't feel sorry for them, look at Jenson in qualy this weekend.


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PostPosted: Sun Nov 18, 2012 2:31 pm 
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Because it's inconclusive for you to say that Hamilton would be leading the championship had it not been for <insert reliability problems>, and then not include the problems that people like Vettel and Alonso have had to face. It's like this.. I'm a Webber fan. I could go on all day about how Webber would have won the championship had he not crashed out at Korea in 2010, but I know that it's ignorant of me to disregard the times that Vettel's car died on him in the lead.

You feel as though the question is simple, but it is only because you're looking at it with a simplistic mind. Every action has an equal and opposite reaction.

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PostPosted: Sun Nov 18, 2012 2:33 pm 
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Misinformed wrote:
Every action has an equal and opposite reaction.


No it doesn't.


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PostPosted: Sun Nov 18, 2012 2:33 pm 
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I'd also add the puncture in Hockenheim. OK it wasn't anyone's fault and was down to nothing more than desperately bad luck but still robbed him of a possible podium.

Anyway I'd say that based on pure pace alone Hamilton should have won the championship this year but things just haven't gone his way. It's hardly the first time in the sport's history that this has happened.


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PostPosted: Sun Nov 18, 2012 2:34 pm 
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There's too many factors involved to give an exact number as to how many he has lost. The only thing one can conclude is that Hamilton would of still more than likely have been in the title fight and may or may not have come out victorious.

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PostPosted: Sun Nov 18, 2012 3:16 pm 
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Getting an exact number is tricky, but he's easily lost the points equivelant of 4 or 5 wins this season. We could speculate and argue over the exact number and analyse each car failure/pit stop failure to the nth degree, but it's certainly no exaggeration to suggest that Hamilton could easily have scored an additional 100 points this season.


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PostPosted: Sun Nov 18, 2012 3:57 pm 
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8th in Bahrain - should have been fourth thanks to dodgy pitstops - 8 points
8th in Spain - should have been first thanks to qualifying issue - 21 points
DNF in Europe - should have backed off in Maldonado incident (not his fault though!) - 12 points
DNF in Singapore - would have won but for gearbox failure - 25 points
10th in Korea - Anti-roll failure - cost him a certain fifth - 10 points
DNF in Abu Dhabi - would have won but for fuel pump failure - 25 points

Total points lost in my view: 106


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PostPosted: Sun Nov 18, 2012 4:02 pm 
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HappyDude88 wrote:
8th in Bahrain - should have been fourth thanks to dodgy pitstops - 8 points
8th in Spain - should have been first thanks to qualifying issue - 21 points
DNF in Europe - should have backed off in Maldonado incident (not his fault though!) - 12 points
DNF in Singapore - would have won but for gearbox failure - 25 points
10th in Korea - Anti-roll failure - cost him a certain fifth - 10 points
DNF in Abu Dhabi - would have won but for fuel pump failure - 25 points

Total points lost in my view: 106


And if you do the same for every driver he would have lost points in other races. For example as I keep saying, those 12 points he missed out on in valeencia drop to about 8 by the time you put Vettel in front of him, Grosjean, Likely Maldo (after all if they don't crash odds were Maldo would have gotten past) and if you stretch it and take out Webbers faulty DRS in Quali he would have been looking at 7th IIRC.

As for Spain, anything could have happened, to say he was guaranteed the full 25 is stretching a plot line further than Hollyoaks.

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PostPosted: Sun Nov 18, 2012 4:18 pm 
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f1madman wrote:
I'm just saying its a simple question, why complicate it?

Because its not simple. If it were simple there'd be no point in having races. There are a million and one factors in races. Assuming the person on pole or who's leading at the half way point is going to take home the 25 points is very presumptuous.

Say the car didn't fail, whos to say he wouldn't have thrown it in the wall at some point ??? You just can't assume he would have finished 1st.

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PostPosted: Sun Nov 18, 2012 4:37 pm 
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Seanie wrote:
f1madman wrote:
I'm just saying its a simple question, why complicate it?

Because its not simple. If it were simple there'd be no point in having races. There are a million and one factors in races. Assuming the person on pole or who's leading at the half way point is going to take home the 25 points is very presumptuous.

Say the car didn't fail, whos to say he wouldn't have thrown it in the wall at some point ??? You just can't assume he would have finished 1st.



For OP and the rest... Who cares how many points is lost. It's like buying an ice cream and dropping it on a sandy beach it is lost and there is no point crying about it.

Lost is lost for ever. All current champs have lost championships because of lost points. It's part of racing

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PostPosted: Sun Nov 18, 2012 4:56 pm 
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If we just look at the potential loss of points this season by looking at where he had qualified/position in race before he hit trouble, my calculations look something like this.

Australia - Ill timed safety car allows Vettel to get ahead. Potential loss: 3 points
Malaysia - Slow pit stop, but Alonso and Perez were faster, so no loss.
China - 5 place gearbox penalty. Had qualified P2. Potential loss: 3 points
Bahrain - All his pit stops were slow. Had been running P4 before first stop. Potential loss: 8 points
Spain - Fuel error by team. Potential loss: 21 points
Valencia - Taken out by Maldonado while defending 3rd. Potential loss: 15 points
Germany - Puncture caused by Massa debris. Potential loss: Think he was running 7th, so 6 points.
Belgium - Taken out by Grosjean, had qualified 7th. Potential loss: 6 points
Singapore - Broke down while leading. Potential loss: 25 points.
Korea - Rear anti-roll bar failure, had been running 4th before trouble. Potential loss: 11 points
Abu Dhabi - See Singapore.

With all that totalled up you're looking at around 120 points. However, this is pretty much a best case scenario for Hamilton. As others have said, you have to look at the rest of the field too. Hamilton probably benefitted from some other driver issues this season, or would have done so if he'd not hit trouble. A good example is a race like Valencia where both Vettel and Grosjean retired from strong positions. The chances are that Hamilton's point loss would be less rhan 120 when bringing other factors into play.

Also, if Hamilton had found himself in the thick of the title fight late on, it's possible he may have made some mistakes. Not trying to bash him, just pointing out that different circumstances can create different results or consequences.

The only conclusions you can really draw are:
- The points standings certainly aren't reflective of Hamilton's consistent, mistake-free driving this season. How unreflective?... Well, I'll let others debate that. I reckon he'd have been a WDC contender at least.
- The fact that Hamilton hasn't made mistakes when trying to compensate for outside factors (like he did when Vettel was dominant last year) suggests that his mental approach is much better than it used to be.

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PostPosted: Sun Nov 18, 2012 5:11 pm 
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How many points has Lewis missed out on this year?



0


To say he has lost out on any points would be a lie. Every team and driver has issues, some have more than others, its part of the sport.


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PostPosted: Sun Nov 18, 2012 5:49 pm 
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25 Abu Dhabi
25 Singapore
15 Valencia
25-15 Spain and many others due to McLaren incapability.Jenson also lost a potential win in China due to their pit-stop crew...no wonder why Ferrari are ahead of them in the WCC.


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PostPosted: Sun Nov 18, 2012 6:28 pm 
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Johnston wrote:
HappyDude88 wrote:
8th in Bahrain - should have been fourth thanks to dodgy pitstops - 8 points
8th in Spain - should have been first thanks to qualifying issue - 21 points
DNF in Europe - should have backed off in Maldonado incident (not his fault though!) - 12 points
DNF in Singapore - would have won but for gearbox failure - 25 points
10th in Korea - Anti-roll failure - cost him a certain fifth - 10 points
DNF in Abu Dhabi - would have won but for fuel pump failure - 25 points

Total points lost in my view: 106


And if you do the same for every driver he would have lost points in other races. For example as I keep saying, those 12 points he missed out on in valeencia drop to about 8 by the time you put Vettel in front of him, Grosjean, Likely Maldo (after all if they don't crash odds were Maldo would have gotten past) and if you stretch it and take out Webbers faulty DRS in Quali he would have been looking at 7th IIRC.

As for Spain, anything could have happened, to say he was guaranteed the full 25 is stretching a plot line further than Hollyoaks.


True with Spain but he was half a second faster in qualifying before the fuel glitch. I didn't take into consideration Germany because it was too early when he had the puncture and Spa.

Put it this way - he has been unlucky this season with reliability, certainly in comparison to the top two. He better get used to it next season with the machinery he has at his disposal.


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PostPosted: Sun Nov 18, 2012 6:42 pm 
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Valenica he would've been first were it not for a McLaren classic pit stop cock up... Wouldn't have been having to try and keep out of crashonaldos way!


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PostPosted: Sun Nov 18, 2012 6:49 pm 
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PeaWonHam wrote:
Valenica he would've been first were it not for a McLaren classic pit stop cock up... Wouldn't have been having to try and keep out of crashonaldos way!



He couldn't keep Kimi behind so how would he have kept Alonso behind?

Then of course take out all the drivers misfortune how would he have beaten Seb and Grosjean?

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PostPosted: Sun Nov 18, 2012 9:39 pm 
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obviously it would have to be done for all drivers so its fair.

but out of the top drivers its clear lewis has lost the most points from things outside of his control.

I would say at least 100 points and thats before taking into account the bodged pitstops.

vettel ofc has also lost points as well as alonso, but nowhere near the amount of lewis.


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