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PostPosted: Tue Dec 04, 2012 5:14 pm 
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I was on holiday last week with a couple of mates and one of the nights we brought up the question of which current drivers will have left Formula One in 5 years time?

Another track (excuse the pun) we went down was which drivers will have entered (and not necessarily have stayed) by 2017?

Give it a stab, though I predict the first list will probably be the same for most people.

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PostPosted: Tue Dec 04, 2012 5:22 pm 
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Ok, current drivers to have left by 2017...

Webber, Button, Massa, Raikkonen, di Resta, Senna, Kobayashi, Vergne, Glock, Petrov, Kovalainen, Karthikeyan, de la Rosa

And - perhaps a controversial choice - Hamilton


Drivers to enter but not stay? Much harder as a lot tend to perform differently in that top echelon and a lot depends on funding... I'll say Valsecchi, Gutierrez, Calado, Evans, Bianchi, van der Garde, Wickens and Bird (if the latter three ever get into F1 - Bird and Wickens seems very unlikely)

Drivers to enter and still be around? Felix da Costa, Frijns, Bottas, Rossi, Nasr, Cecotto, Berthon, Palmer, Magnussen, Abt

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Last edited by theferret on Tue Dec 04, 2012 5:28 pm, edited 1 time in total.

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PostPosted: Tue Dec 04, 2012 5:24 pm 
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Webber
Massa,
Raikkonen,
di Resta,
Senna,
Kobayashi,
Vergne,
Glock,
Petrov,
Kovalainen,
Karthikeyan,
de la Rosa,
Maldonado,
Grosjean,
Pic,
Alonso


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PostPosted: Tue Dec 04, 2012 5:27 pm 
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Current Driver's to leave by 2017

Button, Webber, Alonso, Kovalainen, Petrov, Glock, Kimi, Pic, Petrov, Senna, Massa

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PostPosted: Tue Dec 04, 2012 5:29 pm 
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theferret wrote:
Ok, current drivers to have left by 2017...

Webber, Button, Massa, Raikkonen, di Resta, Senna, Kobayashi, Vergne, Glock, Petrov, Kovalainen, Karthikeyan, de la Rosa

And - perhaps a controversial choice - Hamilton


I give you RoGro and Maldonado, but keep Kimmi a little longer


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PostPosted: Tue Dec 04, 2012 5:33 pm 
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It hit me today that starting next season we won't have a driver on the grid that competed in the 90s :(

2017:
Vettel
Hamilton
di Resta
Hulkenberg
Perez

Maybe Rosberg.
And Alonso is debatable. Doubt it but you never know.

To be quite honest I don't see many of the others lasting 5 more years. I'd like to say Maldonado, the Toro Rosso boys & Pic but F1 is a fickle place these days.

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PostPosted: Tue Dec 04, 2012 5:36 pm 
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It seems very strange to look to the future with F1. You get so familiar with the drivers of today it's almost upsetting to think of them not being there even in just 5 years, even the guys you don't like!

I can only see Perez, Bottas, Pic, Ricciardo, Vettel and maybe Hulkenburg being around in 2017 from the 2012 lot. Alonso, Raikkonen, Button, Webber and probably Hamilton will be gone along with a host of others.

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PostPosted: Tue Dec 04, 2012 5:44 pm 
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Laura23 wrote:
It seems very strange to look to the future with F1. You get so familiar with the drivers of today it's almost upsetting to think of them not being there even in just 5 years, even the guys you don't like!

I can only see Perez, Bottas, Pic, Ricciardo, Vettel and maybe Hulkenburg being around in 2017 from the 2012 lot. Alonso, Raikkonen, Button, Webber and probably Hamilton will be gone along with a host of others.


I can't see Hamilton out of F1 as soon as 2017, that will be what.. 10 years? Obviously there are a lot of circumstances which can lead to him retiring from F1, but I have a feeling he will move to another team after Mercedes, so my guess is we will see him around at least 6 more years. He's an exciting driver to have on the grid, I would find it hard to think of an F1 race without Hamilton! As without Alonso but I'm pretty sure he will retire after his contract with Ferrari is over.

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PostPosted: Tue Dec 04, 2012 5:47 pm 
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Alonso will be 36 in 2017, I think he will still be around.

Webber and Kimi i think will be gone. Button is a maybe. then i can also see Vergne, Petrov, Kovi, Ricciardo, Glock, Pic, Massa


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PostPosted: Tue Dec 04, 2012 5:51 pm 
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I reckon Alonso will still be around in 2017, and with him Vettel, Perez, Hulk, Vergne (maybe?), Lewis, Pic and Bottas.

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PostPosted: Tue Dec 04, 2012 5:51 pm 
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Khazrak134 wrote:
Alonso will be 36 in 2017, I think he will still be around.

Webber and Kimi i think will be gone. Button is a maybe. then i can also see Vergne, Petrov, Kovi, Ricciardo, Glock, Pic, Massa


I think if Alonso get's a title before 2016. He'll go. He really has nothing left to prove in F1 and a 3rd world title would be a nice way to end his career. He won't drag it out like Ruben's tried, I think he'd want to bow out at the top.

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PostPosted: Tue Dec 04, 2012 7:19 pm 
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The following would have retired or lost their chances by the start of the 2017 season IMO:

De La Rosa
Webber
Raikkonen
Button
Alonso
Kobayashi
Kovalainen
Kathikeyan
Di Resta


The following may be around depending on how things work out

Petrov
Ricciardo
Glock
Vergne
Senna
Pic


The following will be around

Massa ( he has had many frustrating years and he'll be trying to make-up Barichello style)
Hamilton
Rosberg
Vettel
Hulkenburg
Maldonado
Perez
Bottas

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PostPosted: Tue Dec 04, 2012 7:26 pm 
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I'd think these drivers to have retired:

Alonso
Button
de la Rosa
di Resta
Glock
Kobayashi
Kovalainen
Massa
Petrov
Rosberg
Räikkönen
Senna
Webber

These may be around:

Grosjean
Gutiérrez
Pic
Ricciardo
Vergne

The rest of the current grid I'd think will be there (including Bottas). However, at least one of the current FI/Sauber/Williams drivers that I think will continue will retire.

As for drivers I'd see coming (possibly go as well) in no particular order: Felix da Costa, Frijns, Vainio, van der Garde, Bianchi, Rossi, Abt, Evans, Chilton and Razia.
There will probably be other new names as well.


Last edited by Water on Tue Dec 04, 2012 7:30 pm, edited 2 times in total.

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PostPosted: Tue Dec 04, 2012 7:27 pm 
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It's scary how quickly drivers come and go, if we look back to just 2007 only 9 drivers who competed that season are still in the sport

Alonso
Hamilton
Kovalainen (On his way out though sadly)
Massa
Kimi
Button
Vettel
Webber
Rosberg

So only really 8, could be some big names missing for 2017

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PostPosted: Tue Dec 04, 2012 7:28 pm 
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I was under the impression till recently that Nico Rosberg was a lot older than Hamilton. I discovered to my surprise that he is actually 6 months younger.

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PostPosted: Tue Dec 04, 2012 7:37 pm 
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4carusgp wrote:
theferret wrote:
Ok, current drivers to have left by 2017...

Webber, Button, Massa, Raikkonen, di Resta, Senna, Kobayashi, Vergne, Glock, Petrov, Kovalainen, Karthikeyan, de la Rosa

And - perhaps a controversial choice - Hamilton


I give you RoGro and Maldonado, but keep Kimmi a little longer


Why Maldonado? Or RoGro? Or Kimi?


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PostPosted: Tue Dec 04, 2012 9:06 pm 
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i am sure lewis will still be around? he would be 32 by 2017

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PostPosted: Wed Dec 05, 2012 3:09 am 
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Raikkonen will be 38 in 2017. People seem to forget how old he is. I'm not so sure he'll still be around.

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PostPosted: Wed Dec 05, 2012 3:11 am 
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Toby. wrote:
Raikkonen will be 38 in 2017. People seem to forget how old he is. I'm not so sure he'll still be around.

He's making noises about leaving again as well. I doubt he'll see in 2015 as an F1 driver, never mind 2017. Depending on how well Lotus do in 2013 he may even leave again at the end of next season.

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PostPosted: Wed Dec 05, 2012 3:18 am 
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Button, de la Rosa, di Resta, Glock, Karthikeyan, Kobayashi, Kovalainen, Massa, Petrov, Pic, Raikkonen, Senna, Webber for sure IMO.

Alonso, Grosjean, Gutiérrez, Hamilton, Maldonado, Vergne maybes.

Bottas, Hulkenberg, Perez, Ricciardo, Rosberg, Vettel to still be around.

Expect Abt, da Costa, Evans, Frinjs, Magnussen, Nasr to be on the grid as well.

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Last edited by kingjamie on Wed Dec 05, 2012 3:28 am, edited 1 time in total.

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PostPosted: Wed Dec 05, 2012 3:26 am 
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diablof1 wrote:
i am sure lewis will still be around? he would be 32 by 2017


Nah, he'll be rapping in NYC by 2017


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PostPosted: Wed Dec 05, 2012 9:52 am 
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I know that things have changed but don't you guys forget that some big name drivers won most of their races and even WDCs well into their 30s. Nigel Mansell was over 32 years old when he won his first race, 39 when he won his only WDC in 1992 and 41 when he won his last race. Prost won his 4th WDC aged 38 and Michael Schumacher 37 when he gave Alonso a run for his money in 2006.

I find Mansell's career in particular interesting. He never looked as fit as the others and tended to be slightly overweight (he admitted a liking for good food). Started his GP career at 27 years of age and still did well.

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PostPosted: Wed Dec 05, 2012 10:42 am 
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diablof1 wrote:
i am sure lewis will still be around? he would be 32 by 2017

Imo he has still about 10 F1 years in him

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PostPosted: Wed Dec 05, 2012 12:02 pm 
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ManojHS wrote:
diablof1 wrote:
i am sure lewis will still be around? he would be 32 by 2017


Nah, he'll be rapping in NYC by 2017


:lol: :thumbup:

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PostPosted: Wed Dec 05, 2012 12:03 pm 
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Haribo wrote:
diablof1 wrote:
i am sure lewis will still be around? he would be 32 by 2017

Imo he has still about 10 F1 years in him


i think he would retire by 34-35. dont see him being in f1 until 37!

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PostPosted: Wed Dec 05, 2012 12:41 pm 
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diablof1 wrote:
Haribo wrote:
diablof1 wrote:
i am sure lewis will still be around? he would be 32 by 2017

Imo he has still about 10 F1 years in him


i think he would retire by 34-35. dont see him being in f1 until 37!


I hope he is. I hope he and Vettel continue racing well into their 50s, by then their qualifying speed will have slowed down to about the same as the rest of the field haha!

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PostPosted: Wed Dec 05, 2012 1:04 pm 
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Zekenwolf wrote:
The following would have retired or lost their chances by the start of the 2017 season IMO:

De La Rosa
Webber
Raikkonen
Button
Alonso
Kobayashi
Kovalainen
Kathikeyan
Di Resta


The following may be around depending on how things work out

Petrov
Ricciardo
Glock
Vergne
Senna
Pic


The following will be around

Massa ( he has had many frustrating years and he'll be trying to make-up Barichello style)
Hamilton
Rosberg
Vettel
Hulkenburg
Maldonado
Perez
Bottas

id say you are just about bang on, although i think Alonso will stick around a wee while longer.


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PostPosted: Wed Dec 05, 2012 1:41 pm 
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Nice to see everyone thinks Michael Schumacher will be around again in 2017. He will be 47 by then. So still tome ro.win another championship. Ala fangio.

More seriously. I would guess everyone bar Hamilton. Alonso. Vettel. Button and maybe the hulk. Other than that. We will probably have all change by 2017.

And from what its worth. It will be Hamilton. Seb and nando fighting for the title every year until then.


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PostPosted: Wed Dec 05, 2012 1:50 pm 
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If it continues on the fairy cakes trend of pay drivers anyone who's not considered 'up there' will be gone, so - these drivers wont be around:

- Button
- Webber
- Massa
- Rosberg
- Grosjean
- di Resta
- Hulk
- Kobayashi
- Ricciardo
- Vergne
- Senna
- Kovalainen
- Petrov
- de la Rosa
- Glock
- Pic

Drivers who will still be around on tallent:
- Hamilton
- Alonso
- Vettel
- (possible long shot) Raikkonen

Drivers who will still be around because they have big pockets
- Perez (TBD 2013)
- Maldonado
- possibly Karthikeyan assuming another team with almost no money eventually come to F1 again

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PostPosted: Wed Dec 05, 2012 1:54 pm 
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RickM wrote:
If it continues on the fairy cakes trend of pay drivers anyone who's not considered 'up there' will be gone, so - these drivers wont be around:

- Button
- Webber
- Massa
- Rosberg
- Grosjean
- di Resta
- Hulk
- Kobayashi
- Ricciardo
- Vergne
- Senna
- Kovalainen
- Petrov
- de la Rosa
- Glock
- Pic

Drivers who will still be around on tallent:
- Hamilton
- Alonso
- Vettel
- (possible long shot) Raikkonen

Drivers who will still be around because they have big pockets
- Perez (TBD 2013)
- Maldonado
- possibly Karthikeyan assuming another team with almost no money eventually come to F1 again


Karthikeyan. He's 37 now isn't he. Surely not.


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PostPosted: Wed Dec 05, 2012 2:25 pm 
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Schumacher. 8)

Some people are looking strictly at whether or not a driver is young enough to carry on through to 2017. Skill and determination/motivation is another big contributing factor to whether or not someone may continue. A lot are discounting Lewis as a future-leaver, as such, though in my opinion he may grow tired of the politics before 2017. If not, then I believe he'll still be around.

wire2004 wrote:
Karthikeyan. He's 37 now isn't he. Surely not.

35. :)

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PostPosted: Thu Dec 06, 2012 12:01 am 
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This is a very interesting thread indeed, and a two of you have nearly made my exact prediction once I thought about it. I'm not familiar with the new up and comers in the lower series, so sadly I must stick to those currently in F1 for this exercise.

This is also hoping and praying for the safety of the drivers, because I'm also sure many of us felt Kubica would be around for 2016-2017, too.

WILLFULLY RETIRE BY 2017:

Kimi (near guarantee)
Button (very likely)
Webber (very likely)
Massa (if not phased out)
Alonso (very possible)
Hamilton (possible and seems VERY strange to think!)

UNWILLFULLY PHASED OUT BY 2017:

Rosberg (possible)
Kobayashi (sadly)
Di Resta
Kovalainnen
Glock
Petrov
Senna
Vergne
Ricciardo
Grosjean
Pic
De La Rosa (I think he'd stay around like Rubens if he could)
Karthikeyan

Of the current grid, when 2017 testing rolls around, I would venture we'll still have:

Vettel
Perez (depending on how the Macca stint goes)
Rosberg (I think he'll cling to a seat for a while at least)
Maldonaldo
Hulkenberg

Which actually seems like a fairly weak class at first glance similar to the early 2000s. So hopefully some more talent pops up.

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PostPosted: Thu Dec 06, 2012 12:16 am 
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Honda Quick wrote:
This is a very interesting thread indeed, and a two of you have nearly made my exact prediction once I thought about it. I'm not familiar with the new up and comers in the lower series, so sadly I must stick to those currently in F1 for this exercise.

This is also hoping and praying for the safety of the drivers, because I'm also sure many of us felt Kubica would be around for 2016-2017, too.

WILLFULLY RETIRE BY 2017:

Kimi (near guarantee)
Button (very likely)
Webber (very likely)
Massa (if not phased out)
Alonso (very possible)
Hamilton (possible and seems VERY strange to think!)

UNWILLFULLY PHASED OUT BY 2017:

Rosberg (possible)
Kobayashi (sadly)
Di Resta
Kovalainnen
Glock
Petrov
Senna
Vergne
Ricciardo
Grosjean
Pic
De La Rosa (I think he'd stay around like Rubens if he could)
Karthikeyan

Of the current grid, when 2017 testing rolls around, I would venture we'll still have:

Vettel
Perez (depending on how the Macca stint goes)
Rosberg (I think he'll cling to a seat for a while at least)
Maldonaldo
Hulkenberg

Which actually seems like a fairly weak class at first glance similar to the early 2000s. So hopefully some more talent pops up.

Why should Hamilton retire with only 32?

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PostPosted: Thu Dec 06, 2012 1:17 am 
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Haribo wrote:
Why should Hamilton retire with only 32?


I have a few reasons. However, dare I voice them around these parts I may get mauled to death. :-P

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PostPosted: Thu Dec 06, 2012 9:02 am 
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Interesting Thread....

Definitely Gone- Kimi, Pedro, Heikki, Petrov, Narain, Glock, Webber, Senna,

Probably will be gone - Di Resta, Pic (Unless he can move to a bigger team), Vergne (Unless he outshines Ricciardo next year), Massa, Button, Rosberg (Unless he shows well against Hamilton), Kobayashi. I would say at least 5 of these will be gone.

50/50 - Maldonado, Grosjean, Ricciardo, Perez - (all drivers with potential but whether or not they will maximise it remains to be seen), Hamilton (depending on his motivation). Probably 3 of these will remain

More than likely still there - Vettel (I don't think he's the sort to get bored of winning), Alonso - (Ironically I see him in a Webber type role somewhere by then), Hulkenberg (Got a hunch that unless he becomes anonymous at Sauber he is destined for a bigger team by 2014/2015)

Cannot really comment on Gutierrez or Chilton until they have raced

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PostPosted: Thu Dec 06, 2012 11:13 am 
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De La Rosa we won't see him from next year on I think in a race seat,
Karthikeyan same story as Pedro
If Sutil comes back I don't expect him to stay until 2017, too many younger guys around who can do a similar or better job than him
Kovalainen seems on his way out and doesn't seem motivated enough to stay 5 more years, I see him doing rally in the near future
Even if Bruno Senna gets a seat for next year I don't expect him to stay long in F1 any more
Webber will retire in a few years, he won't race when he is 40+
Alonso is tricky, he will be 36 in 2017, he wants to end his career with Ferrari and his contract runs out in 2016, depends a bit how successful his career at the Scuderia has been, how competitive he still is and how big his hunger is, hard to predict
Button, I expect him to retire at the nice age of 35 (in 2015) hopefully with another WDC
Petrov, honestly don't see him around for 5 seasons, he might be out of a seat even next year
Massa will be 36 in 2017, his career was almost over at the start of the season, I think he will be replaced by a younger guy in a 1 or 2 seasons, he might drive for a midfield team for a season or 2 but I think he will retire in 2016
Glock, I have the feeling he will grow tired of driving at the back seasons after season, I don't think any midfield or big team is interested any more to sign him, current contract with Marussia runs to 2014 and if no spectacular improvement I think he will retire
Tricky ones depending on performances or other reasons (sponsoring): Grosjean, Maldonado, Kobayashi, Di Resta (not all of these will be there in 2017 I reckon 1 or 2 might not race next year)

For the others I won't make predictions

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PostPosted: Thu Dec 06, 2012 12:58 pm 
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Haribo wrote:
Honda Quick wrote:
This is a very interesting thread indeed, and a two of you have nearly made my exact prediction once I thought about it. I'm not familiar with the new up and comers in the lower series, so sadly I must stick to those currently in F1 for this exercise.

This is also hoping and praying for the safety of the drivers, because I'm also sure many of us felt Kubica would be around for 2016-2017, too.

WILLFULLY RETIRE BY 2017:

Kimi (near guarantee)
Button (very likely)
Webber (very likely)
Massa (if not phased out)
Alonso (very possible)
Hamilton (possible and seems VERY strange to think!)

UNWILLFULLY PHASED OUT BY 2017:

Rosberg (possible)
Kobayashi (sadly)
Di Resta
Kovalainnen
Glock
Petrov
Senna
Vergne
Ricciardo
Grosjean
Pic
De La Rosa (I think he'd stay around like Rubens if he could)
Karthikeyan

Of the current grid, when 2017 testing rolls around, I would venture we'll still have:

Vettel
Perez (depending on how the Macca stint goes)
Rosberg (I think he'll cling to a seat for a while at least)
Maldonaldo
Hulkenberg

Which actually seems like a fairly weak class at first glance similar to the early 2000s. So hopefully some more talent pops up.

Why should Hamilton retire with only 32?



I'd be willing to bet that by 2017 he will still be racing. Just not in F1. He'll bugger off the the USA - it would probably suit him pretty well.

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PostPosted: Thu Dec 06, 2012 1:03 pm 
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RickM wrote:
Haribo wrote:
Honda Quick wrote:
This is a very interesting thread indeed, and a two of you have nearly made my exact prediction once I thought about it. I'm not familiar with the new up and comers in the lower series, so sadly I must stick to those currently in F1 for this exercise.

This is also hoping and praying for the safety of the drivers, because I'm also sure many of us felt Kubica would be around for 2016-2017, too.

WILLFULLY RETIRE BY 2017:

Kimi (near guarantee)
Button (very likely)
Webber (very likely)
Massa (if not phased out)
Alonso (very possible)
Hamilton (possible and seems VERY strange to think!)

UNWILLFULLY PHASED OUT BY 2017:

Rosberg (possible)
Kobayashi (sadly)
Di Resta
Kovalainnen
Glock
Petrov
Senna
Vergne
Ricciardo
Grosjean
Pic
De La Rosa (I think he'd stay around like Rubens if he could)
Karthikeyan

Of the current grid, when 2017 testing rolls around, I would venture we'll still have:

Vettel
Perez (depending on how the Macca stint goes)
Rosberg (I think he'll cling to a seat for a while at least)
Maldonaldo
Hulkenberg

Which actually seems like a fairly weak class at first glance similar to the early 2000s. So hopefully some more talent pops up.

Why should Hamilton retire with only 32?



I'd be willing to bet that by 2017 he will still be racing. Just not in F1. He'll bugger off the the USA - it would probably suit him pretty well.

I don't think so, if Hamilton retires he will retire from motorsports and not go in a lesser series, but it won't be as soon as 2017. He himself said recently if mercedes won't be successfull the next 3 years, it's not such a big problem because he will be only 31, and has still some good years left at F1

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PostPosted: Thu Dec 06, 2012 5:57 pm 
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Out of the current grid I think (barring injury or a massive influx of competitive new talent):

Vettel
Perez
Hülkenberg
Ricciardo

Struggling to think of other people who might definately be around. Plenty of possibilities. Hamilton, Bottas, Grosjean and maybe even Pic.

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