Water wrote:
If you look at the second half of 2012 compared to the first half of 2013, I'd be almost certain it's Mercedes. After all, they had good speed in the beginning of 2012 with Rosberg even scoring a victory, then to fall back to basically nowhere as the year went on. My prediction would be Mercedes starting 2013 in roughly the same way as 2013, with the team being quite high up there, possibly even getting a victory. The team does seem to have huge trouble with keeping up pace over the year though, so I doubt they're the ones to improve the most in 2013.
So what are the other choices? Force India scored the fifth most points in the second half of 2012, and will want to continue that trend. Hülkenberg leaving may hurt a bit, but it may also keep the team up depending on who is driving. Williams had raw speed this year, but Maldonado was too inconsistent in racing and Senna simply didn't put the car where it could have been. If they can be as competitive in 2013, Maldonado gets more secure in racing and Bottas can keep up to a good extent, they could improve quite a bit. Lotus could be a viable choice - they've got lots of money coming in via Coca-Cola and supposedly Honeywell, have the nearly-mythical device planned for 2013 (DDRS is gone, but the device isn't). They were competitive this year already, but they'll want to get that top 3 WCC finish.
Most of this makes sound reading, but I'll back off with RBRII. Hamilton is still the best driver on the grid but with such a suspect temperament it's hard to put any cash behind him. He's made his bed and there's no where else to run to so I expect him to see things out. If Hamilton or Mercedes can get the tyres working on that car I would not put anything against them. We are going to be going backwards performance wise due to the regulation changes and the cars will be something like they were after 1 month of this season. I would put RBR as about a season ahead of the field and have to be the favourites for a repeat but when you get the tyres on such a hair trigger, anything can happen. Though it is expected the tyres will be that little more conservative. Ferrari had such a poor car, elevated by changeable conditions that may be difficult to repeat. Alonso will always be a threat but I am not sure the design team is. McLaren should do well but what's to say they won't get left with 2 drivers that can't get the tyres to work? Any one of Sauber, Lotus or Williams could pull it off in such difficult time, though realistically Lotus would be the pick.
I would expect you can pick out all the consistent DNF's for RBR/alternator and McLaren/g-box as I don't believe they will be carrying those problems through. Though RBR and KERS may still not have ceded.