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PostPosted: Tue Dec 11, 2012 4:03 am 
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ashley313 wrote:
I *think* Pirelli is attempting to make the tires simpler to use but degrade more quickly, to make more stops. They will also be heavier, and directional. That last bit is really interesting, and I can't wait to learn why it matters and why its changed.

Gary Anderson's column in the BBC F1 site has an answer I think :
http://www.bbc.co.uk/sport/0/formula1/20501817
"The Pirellis don't like it when a driver tries to brake and turn in at the same time".
This has apparently hampered drivers like Button who has a "smooth" style that includes trail-braking.
However, the tire characteristics have been changing through the season, so guys like Massa and Button came back strong - that's my take on the article.

the incubus - this is another reason why I think Button may win. The teams have in general figured the tires out I think, and even if 2013 brings some surprises in the beginning in tire behavior, they will take less time to reach the point in the season that drivers like Button settle down.


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PostPosted: Tue Dec 11, 2012 5:26 pm 
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Yeah I understand the braking element, by directional I mean they only work when rotating one way. Like how the tread on some street tires only works in one direction. I can't recall ever seeing a directional slick. My best F1 buddy read it about a week ago, I'll try to get his source.

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PostPosted: Tue Dec 11, 2012 5:36 pm 
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ashley313 wrote:
Yeah I understand the braking element, by directional I mean they only work when rotating one way. Like how the tread on some street tires only works in one direction. I can't recall ever seeing a directional slick. My best F1 buddy read it about a week ago, I'll try to get his source.



They only rotate one way but the forces on them are opposite. They act differently when accelerating from braking. If you imagine it under accelerating the tyre is pushing the car along. Under breaking it's pulling in back. Remember that it's not just how the actual tread is but how the carcass reacts under the two forces.

I know in my time I've seen directional slicks. On some of the 4wd stuff I worked on the drivers like the arrows pointing to the middle. so the rear was pointing forward and the fronts backward. Gave the car better grip from the rear under traction and better brakes at the front. At least that's the theory.

Of course things get awkward when you get tyres fitted to rims and the tyre monkey puts all the tyres on facing the same way even after you explain it and have the rims marked R/H and L/H . :facepalm:

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PostPosted: Tue Dec 11, 2012 5:57 pm 
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Johnston wrote:
ashley313 wrote:
Yeah I understand the braking element, by directional I mean they only work when rotating one way. Like how the tread on some street tires only works in one direction. I can't recall ever seeing a directional slick. My best F1 buddy read it about a week ago, I'll try to get his source.



They only rotate one way but the forces on them are opposite. They act differently when accelerating from braking. If you imagine it under accelerating the tyre is pushing the car along. Under breaking it's pulling in back. Remember that it's not just how the actual tread is but how the carcass reacts under the two forces.

I know in my time I've seen directional slicks. On some of the 4wd stuff I worked on the drivers like the arrows pointing to the middle. so the rear was pointing forward and the fronts backward. Gave the car better grip from the rear under traction and better brakes at the front. At least that's the theory.

Of course things get awkward when you get tyres fitted to rims and the tyre monkey puts all the tyres on facing the same way even after you explain it and have the rims marked R/H and L/H . :facepalm:

Yeah I want to understand how that physically works. The properties of the tires. Like when you take a damper apart and see the physical reaction of the components in compression vs rebound at different pressures and speeds. I like to see things :D In my professional racing experience I either never got too involved with the tires because they were outside of the scope of my role, or was in a category where there were greater steps to be made outside of them, so its an area I'm not as well versed in as I'd like to be. How construction influences behavior (I've got the behavior part down ;) ).

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PostPosted: Tue Dec 11, 2012 6:05 pm 
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With Pirrelli keeping their construction techniques under wraps I don't think you will ever know.

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PostPosted: Tue Dec 11, 2012 6:19 pm 
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Stuff always comes out eventually 8)

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PostPosted: Tue Dec 11, 2012 6:20 pm 
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I dunno if it will, remember even the teams don't know.

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PostPosted: Tue Dec 11, 2012 6:29 pm 
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Yeah, but there are fundamental principals that are true no matter the make or purpose of the tire. I'm not looking for Pirelli's secrets really, just things the car designers would know. Paul will probably tell me what I want to know, he has before.

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PostPosted: Tue Dec 11, 2012 6:40 pm 
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Though Vettel is the one with the best shot at beating Schumi's record, I think the odds are stacked against him. Assuming that Vettel has another 12 years in the sport, he needs to win 5 out of the next 12 championships.

Given that there is far less disparity in resources for each team now than 10 years ago and they all have the same tyres, the titles are likely to be shared more evenly among the top teams. And speaking of top teams, there are now 5 teams with a big enough budget to challenge for the title (Ferrari, McLaren, Red Bull, Mercedes and Lotus) as opposed to 3 in Schumi's dominant era (Ferrari, McLaren, Williams).

Also, it looks like there are now more drivers who have the combination of speed and consistency required to mount a serious title threat. We now have Vettel, Alonso, Hamilton and Raikkonen who I think have proven they have these qualities, Button to a somewhat lesser degree, and then Rosberg and Hulkenberg who have shown potential but haven't yet had the cars to show these qualities. Not to mention there are other drivers who haven't been in the sport long enough or have yet to enter the sport who might join these top drivers.

So I think it's possible, yes. And Vettel is better placed to do so than anybody else given his talent, young age, and constant improvement since he joined the sport. But is it probable? I think not.


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PostPosted: Tue Dec 11, 2012 8:24 pm 
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zoomsthru wrote:
Though Vettel is the one with the best shot at beating Schumi's record, I think the odds are stacked against him. Assuming that Vettel has another 12 years in the sport, he needs to win 5 out of the next 12 championships.

Given that there is far less disparity in resources for each team now than 10 years ago and they all have the same tyres, the titles are likely to be shared more evenly among the top teams. And speaking of top teams, there are now 5 teams with a big enough budget to challenge for the title (Ferrari, McLaren, Red Bull, Mercedes and Lotus) as opposed to 3 in Schumi's dominant era (Ferrari, McLaren, Williams).

Also, it looks like there are now more drivers who have the combination of speed and consistency required to mount a serious title threat. We now have Vettel, Alonso, Hamilton and Raikkonen who I think have proven they have these qualities, Button to a somewhat lesser degree, and then Rosberg and Hulkenberg who have shown potential but haven't yet had the cars to show these qualities. Not to mention there are other drivers who haven't been in the sport long enough or have yet to enter the sport who might join these top drivers.

So I think it's possible, yes. And Vettel is better placed to do so than anybody else given his talent, young age, and constant improvement since he joined the sport. But is it probable? I think not.


Next year will be very close. The field spread will be low. But it won't necessarily be like than in 2014.

3
3
3
4
3
4
2
3
3
5
4
3
3
2
5
4
3
3
6

No. of race winners per year since 1994.


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PostPosted: Tue Dec 11, 2012 8:38 pm 
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^^^

Unless I'm not reading it right. I'm sure the bottom number, 6 represents 2012. That means the 3 above it represents 2011, and I'm sure there were more than 3 winners in 2011. 5 if I remember right

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PostPosted: Tue Dec 11, 2012 8:39 pm 
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Also, there were 8 in 2012.


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PostPosted: Tue Dec 11, 2012 8:40 pm 
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Eva09 wrote:
zoomsthru wrote:
Though Vettel is the one with the best shot at beating Schumi's record, I think the odds are stacked against him. Assuming that Vettel has another 12 years in the sport, he needs to win 5 out of the next 12 championships.

Given that there is far less disparity in resources for each team now than 10 years ago and they all have the same tyres, the titles are likely to be shared more evenly among the top teams. And speaking of top teams, there are now 5 teams with a big enough budget to challenge for the title (Ferrari, McLaren, Red Bull, Mercedes and Lotus) as opposed to 3 in Schumi's dominant era (Ferrari, McLaren, Williams).

Also, it looks like there are now more drivers who have the combination of speed and consistency required to mount a serious title threat. We now have Vettel, Alonso, Hamilton and Raikkonen who I think have proven they have these qualities, Button to a somewhat lesser degree, and then Rosberg and Hulkenberg who have shown potential but haven't yet had the cars to show these qualities. Not to mention there are other drivers who haven't been in the sport long enough or have yet to enter the sport who might join these top drivers.

So I think it's possible, yes. And Vettel is better placed to do so than anybody else given his talent, young age, and constant improvement since he joined the sport. But is it probable? I think not.


Next year will be very close. The field spread will be low. But it won't necessarily be like than in 2014.

3
3
3
4
3
4
2
3
3
5
4
3
3
2
5
4
3
3
6

No. of race winners per year since 1994.


3 race winners in 2011?

Alonso, Vettel, webber, button, Hamilton that's 5 by my count!

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PostPosted: Tue Dec 11, 2012 8:48 pm 
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SilverstoneRegular wrote:
Eva09 wrote:
zoomsthru wrote:
Though Vettel is the one with the best shot at beating Schumi's record, I think the odds are stacked against him. Assuming that Vettel has another 12 years in the sport, he needs to win 5 out of the next 12 championships.

Given that there is far less disparity in resources for each team now than 10 years ago and they all have the same tyres, the titles are likely to be shared more evenly among the top teams. And speaking of top teams, there are now 5 teams with a big enough budget to challenge for the title (Ferrari, McLaren, Red Bull, Mercedes and Lotus) as opposed to 3 in Schumi's dominant era (Ferrari, McLaren, Williams).

Also, it looks like there are now more drivers who have the combination of speed and consistency required to mount a serious title threat. We now have Vettel, Alonso, Hamilton and Raikkonen who I think have proven they have these qualities, Button to a somewhat lesser degree, and then Rosberg and Hulkenberg who have shown potential but haven't yet had the cars to show these qualities. Not to mention there are other drivers who haven't been in the sport long enough or have yet to enter the sport who might join these top drivers.

So I think it's possible, yes. And Vettel is better placed to do so than anybody else given his talent, young age, and constant improvement since he joined the sport. But is it probable? I think not.


Next year will be very close. The field spread will be low. But it won't necessarily be like than in 2014.

3
3
3
4
3
4
2
3
3
5
4
3
3
2
5
4
3
3
6

No. of race winners per year since 1994.


3 race winners in 2011?

Alonso, Vettel, webber, button, Hamilton that's 5 by my count!


Oh sorry I meant to say teams :]


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PostPosted: Wed Dec 12, 2012 1:50 am 
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@Eva09

The number of race-winning constructors is one factor, yes. But what I mean by saying that the wins are more evenly distributed is that there are several multiple-race winners. Most of the recent years have had 2 dominant teams with de facto #1 drivers (say Schumacher and Hakkinen) who took nearly all the race wins in a given year. But if you accept that 2010 and 2012 are more representative of the present time than 2011, we had 5 drivers who had 2 wins or more. Of course, things can change quickly though, and we may once again have seasons where it's clear at the half-way stage of the season that it's a two-horse race.


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PostPosted: Wed Dec 12, 2012 2:05 am 
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No he won't. He does have a possibility of course and could win another one next year but I don't think the RBR is going to be competitive after 2013. I'm assuming 2014 Merc and McLaren would dominate

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PostPosted: Wed Dec 12, 2012 2:06 am 
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No he won't. He does have a possibility of course and could win another one next year but I don't think the RBR is going to be competitive after 2013. I'm assuming 2014 Merc and McLaren would dominate

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PostPosted: Wed Dec 12, 2012 2:06 am 
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Why would you assume that?

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PostPosted: Wed Dec 12, 2012 10:08 am 
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^because Mercedes are already working on the 2014 Engine thus giving them a head-start and few others has commented that the Merc engines are going to be competitive in 2014. Not sure about Renault though..

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PostPosted: Wed Dec 12, 2012 10:17 am 
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Kolby wrote:
^because Mercedes are already working on the 2014 Engine thus giving them a head-start and few others has commented that the Merc engines are going to be competitive in 2014. Not sure about Renault though..


All the engine manufacturers bar Cosworth are already working on the engine.

That means with Red Bull being the official "Works" team, they have the same advantages as Merc and Ferrari.

As for Merc engines going to be competitive, Who knows? Nobody inside Merc will have seen the Renault or Ferrari dyno sheets and vice versa. If No one knows who can say x will be competitive and y not?

At this stage of the game any one of the 3 could be horrendously underpowered compared to the others or horrendously unreliable.

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PostPosted: Wed Dec 12, 2012 10:31 am 
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^But I thought that announcement was officially declared this year but Merc has been starting to work on it since last year

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PostPosted: Wed Dec 12, 2012 10:35 am 
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And that means that none of the other manufacturers have been working on theirs?

Ferrari have already had one on the Dyno for Herr Bernie to hear.

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PostPosted: Wed Dec 12, 2012 2:43 pm 
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If ONLY merc had started working on their 2014 engine, Bernie would have had a real shot at getting the v6 canned. But they're all working on them and will probably start delivering prototypes to customer teams by mid season (if not sooner) so they can plan around the packaging.

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PostPosted: Wed Dec 12, 2012 2:45 pm 
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Johnston wrote:
Kolby wrote:
^because Mercedes are already working on the 2014 Engine thus giving them a head-start and few others has commented that the Merc engines are going to be competitive in 2014. Not sure about Renault though..


All the engine manufacturers bar Cosworth are already working on the engine.

That means with Red Bull being the official "Works" team, they have the same advantages as Merc and Ferrari.

As for Merc engines going to be competitive, Who knows? Nobody inside Merc will have seen the Renault or Ferrari dyno sheets and vice versa. If No one knows who can say x will be competitive and y not?

At this stage of the game any one of the 3 could be horrendously underpowered compared to the others or horrendously unreliable.


Or horrendously thirsty too.


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PostPosted: Wed Dec 12, 2012 2:47 pm 
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Eva09 wrote:

Or horrendously thirsty too.



Nope. There is a limit on fuel flow.

So thats one thing they can't be ;)

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PostPosted: Thu Dec 13, 2012 1:44 am 
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Thanks for the info guys

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PostPosted: Thu Dec 13, 2012 7:34 pm 
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Vettel could beat Schumis record if the Red Bull is as dominant as it has been over the last couple of years. Will it be like that for the rest of Vettels career though? Who knows? And Vettel may choose to challenge himself and go to a less complete team (aka Schumi to Ferrari circa 96)

Cannot see him ever beating Schumis 91 wins. That record is safe for a long time IMO!

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PostPosted: Thu Dec 13, 2012 8:55 pm 
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He's the only one on the grid right now who has a chance that's for sure. If he wins 2013 he'll have 4 WDC's aged 26. That'd be crazy. If Red Bull do get it right in 2014 then it's game on.

I don't think he'll get close to 91 wins but Schumacher's pole record is in serious danger. Schuey finished with 68 poles, Vettel has 36 already and he's only just turned 25.

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PostPosted: Thu Dec 13, 2012 9:15 pm 
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The 91 wins shouldn't be a problem if he keeps racking up the WDCs.

After all there tends to be more races in a season these days. Most of Schui 1.0 came when there were 16/17 races a season. With 20 looking like the norm now. So if he stays in F1 as long as Schui 1.0 he will have competed roughly the equivalent to a seasons more races despite the same number of full seasons. 9 more years 3 extra races a year 27 races more approx, (give or take a few for '99 and a couple of 18 race seasons)

Or 26 wins in first 5 full seasons For Seb, 22 I think for Schui. So he's already ahead of the curve.

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PostPosted: Thu Dec 13, 2012 9:22 pm 
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Depends how competitive the seasons are though - if there is a lot of inconsistency in the podiums it takes fewer wins to get the title.

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PostPosted: Thu Dec 13, 2012 9:30 pm 
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ashley313 wrote:
Depends how competitive the seasons are though - if there is a lot of inconsistency in the podiums it takes fewer wins to get the title.

Exactly. Vettel won't dominate 2011 style every year. Some years he might only win 3/4 races. Some he'll win 7/8.

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PostPosted: Thu Dec 13, 2012 9:46 pm 
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'10 5 winners, '11 5 winners, '12 8 winners.

'94 4 winners, '95 5 winners, '00 4 winners

So just taking their first 3 WDC years. Sebs have been more competitive with more winners fighting it out and he's still ahead of the curve ;)

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PostPosted: Thu Dec 13, 2012 9:51 pm 
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Here's hoping for 7 more seasons w/11 wins in each :D

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PostPosted: Thu Dec 13, 2012 10:07 pm 
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ashley313 wrote:
Here's hoping for 7 more seasons w/11 wins in each :D

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PostPosted: Thu Dec 13, 2012 10:16 pm 
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He doesn't even need 11 wins a year to break schuis record if he stays in F1 for the same amount of time. But then when you think he's a bit younger and has the head start. If he stays until the same age he has what 12 more years?

Less than 6 races a year on average and he has the record, I think? If the Seasons stay at 20 races and he stays in competitive teams. It should be very doable. Even if he doesn't clean up in the WDC.

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PostPosted: Thu Dec 13, 2012 10:21 pm 
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I don't think he'll be around as long as Schumi.

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PostPosted: Fri Dec 14, 2012 2:30 am 
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I'm gonna go out on a limb here and say that when the new rules kick in, RBR will fall behind. Of course, Vettel has a long career ahead of him. What he does in 2014-2015 is gonna settle this discussion.


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PostPosted: Fri Dec 14, 2012 11:42 am 
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ashley313 wrote:
I don't think he'll be around as long as Schumi.



I've worked it all out based on Schui 1.0 time not Schui 2.0 as he won zero. So only as long as schui was around for the first time. Of course if he leaves at the same age it will have had a few more seasons under his belt.

Realistically the maths is in his favour and without the big aero changes coming there won't be no big mix up in 2014.

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