planetf1.com

It is currently Fri Oct 24, 2014 7:01 am

All times are UTC




Post new topic Reply to topic
Author Message
 Post subject: The whole 'luck' debate
PostPosted: Thu Dec 13, 2012 7:55 pm 
Offline

Joined: Wed Jun 18, 2008 1:24 pm
Posts: 7
Right I have been on these forums for a while and only posted for the first time today. Too much squabbling when I would just love to read and participate in a good debate. So here I go. Firstly I am an Alonso fan and have been from the get go and I also like Kimi, Hulk, Perez and Lewis. I always liked Vettel from the moment he appeared for BMW to replace Kubica but it is more his Red Bull team that have soured my liking for him. But this debate is about luck and how all I heard in the first half of the season was if Alonso won the title he was lucky because of Seb and Lewis reliability issues. Then come the end of the season all we hear is Seb had the best car etc etc. Whilst I agree he has had the better car at the end of the season it's more fortune than luck. The point being is pretty much every WDC could have turned out differently. It's the table that counts.
91 - Williams poor reliability won Senna the title

94 - Schueys "defence" on Hill at Adelaide and the Benettons legality

96 - 99 - They could have turned out different had Schuey been in a competitive car. When he did in 99 he broke his leg and Irvine could have won!

Schuey era - Don't care what people say about he had everything in his favour the fact is he and Ferrari worked stupidly hard. When everything was right he capitalised much like JB in 09 and the last 3 years for Seb, managed to make the most of what they had.

05 - McLaren reliabilty

06 - Engine failure for both FA and MS near end of season could have swung it either way

07 and 08 - Where to start with either.

09 - JB just had enough at start of season to hold of an improved RB

10 - Alonso stuck behind Petrov because of a bad strategy call

12 - Swings and roundabouts. Seb and Lewis reliability. FA being took out at Spa. Running out of laps to get Kimi at Abu Dhabi.


Top
 Profile  
 
PostPosted: Thu Dec 13, 2012 8:18 pm 
Offline

Joined: Fri Jul 29, 2011 11:17 am
Posts: 189
Luck plays a big role, wether people like it or not, Ofc you get people saying you make your own luck, which is true to an extent, but sometimes things just happen that you can't control. But I think whoever wins the title, deserves it, they fought for it all year long, and in the end they managed to take it.

_________________
A man exists for only a lifetime, a name lasts until the end of time.


Top
 Profile  
 
PostPosted: Thu Dec 13, 2012 8:21 pm 
Offline

Joined: Wed Jun 18, 2008 1:24 pm
Posts: 7
Like I say the table never lies. Like in football over the course of a season the team in 1st is the best that season. If you went through every incident, every qualy, every race from every year there will be countless amounts of incidents to change things. You could make an argument for Schuey being a 3 time winner or actually a 10 time WDC.


Top
 Profile  
 
PostPosted: Thu Dec 13, 2012 8:33 pm 
Offline
User avatar

Joined: Mon Mar 26, 2012 12:11 pm
Posts: 3029
Luck or fortune exist in everything, just part of life. Nobody gets anywhere by harping on "what if". You do what you can to minimize the risk of not so good luck negatively affecting the result you want, and maximize your chance to take advantage of luck swinging your way, in all aspects of life. Some are better at that than others, and sometimes no matter what you do something out of your control strikes. In racing, you do everything possible to ensure that a bit of misfortune can be overcome, be it in the form of building a big gap to the car behind in a specific race, or building a big points lead over the season, or working your absolute hardest to recover from a deficit. Get the best out of yourself first, worry about things out of your control second.

_________________
Image


Top
 Profile  
 
PostPosted: Fri Dec 14, 2012 12:57 am 
Offline

Joined: Sat Mar 31, 2012 10:05 pm
Posts: 2973
dingle_eater wrote:
Like I say the table never lies. Like in football over the course of a season the team in 1st is the best that season. If you went through every incident, every qualy, every race from every year there will be countless amounts of incidents to change things. You could make an argument for Schuey being a 3 time winner or actually a 10 time WDC.

That's interesting, because in rugby 1st plays 4th, 2nd plays 3rd with the winners of each semi facing one another in the final.

It's difficult to imagine an F1 equivalent.

_________________
We want heroes, but there are few, mainly it's cars - Pedro De La Rosa


Top
 Profile  
 
PostPosted: Fri Dec 14, 2012 8:13 am 
Offline

Joined: Mon Jun 13, 2011 10:39 am
Posts: 1309
No such thing as luck. If you're in the right or wrong place at the right or wrong time, it's just circumstance and probability. Vettel in Brazil for example put himself in a bad position, got pranged, but had the cool head to roll backwards steering himself away from more danger. Had he tried to get straight back in, chances are Alonso would be WDC. Good call that paid off, but lucky? Please.

_________________
"We can not drive slower, just to make the races more exciting." Alain Prost


Top
 Profile  
 
PostPosted: Fri Dec 14, 2012 8:29 am 
Offline

Joined: Fri Jul 06, 2012 7:59 pm
Posts: 48
I do beleive in luck to a certain extent. Sometimes things fall in to place, such as a car in front developing a problem or dropping out of a race and you benefit from that.

You must be in the right place at the right time to take advantage of that luck though, and for me that usually involves a degree of skill.


Top
 Profile  
 
PostPosted: Fri Dec 14, 2012 8:43 am 
Offline

Joined: Tue Oct 21, 2003 11:06 am
Posts: 3884
Location: Belgium
dingle_eater wrote:
it's more fortune than luck.
What's the difference between them? I looked up the definitions, and I can't see it.

Whenever fans, or perhaps even Schumacher used to say that you make your own luck, I found that a rather silly thing to say. But this year, Räikkönen finishing every single race, and on the same lap as the race winner, seemed to confirm it to some extent; you can actively steer clear of incidents/accidents. The gate in Brazil being closed was one thing he could do nothing about, except make sure prior the race.

There are things you can influence, and things you can't. Which brings me back to my question.

_________________
Use every man after his desert, and who should scape whipping? Use them after your own honour and dignity.

Maria de Villota - Jules Bianchi


Top
 Profile  
 
PostPosted: Fri Dec 14, 2012 9:22 am 
Offline

Joined: Wed Jun 18, 2008 1:24 pm
Posts: 7
Fiki wrote:
dingle_eater wrote:
it's more fortune than luck.
What's the difference between them? I looked up the definitions, and I can't see it.

Whenever fans, or perhaps even Schumacher used to say that you make your own luck, I found that a rather silly thing to say. But this year, Räikkönen finishing every single race, and on the same lap as the race winner, seemed to confirm it to some extent; you can actively steer clear of incidents/accidents. The gate in Brazil being closed was one thing he could do nothing about, except make sure prior the race.

There are things you can influence, and things you can't. Which brings me back to my question.


Between fortune and luck maybe I should have said fortunate. As its hard to deny that Seb has had the best car or a better car than the rest over the course of the last 3 seasons. But he didnt luck into an RB seat if you know what I mean its just good fortune he happened to be signed up by a team that had this great car. The car is not lucky if you understand what I mean. When he joined the RB Young Drivers scheme he never knew the RB car in the future was gonna be this good hence its not lucky its more fortunate. Could things have panned out different and he stayed with BMW then Sauber?


Top
 Profile  
 
PostPosted: Fri Dec 14, 2012 9:26 am 
Offline

Joined: Wed Jun 18, 2008 1:24 pm
Posts: 7
Formula1Fan. wrote:
dingle_eater wrote:
Like I say the table never lies. Like in football over the course of a season the team in 1st is the best that season. If you went through every incident, every qualy, every race from every year there will be countless amounts of incidents to change things. You could make an argument for Schuey being a 3 time winner or actually a 10 time WDC.

That's interesting, because in rugby 1st plays 4th, 2nd plays 3rd with the winners of each semi facing one another in the final.

It's difficult to imagine an F1 equivalent.


That would be strange. I have always said I would love to see on the day after the final race of the season a kind of shootout of sorts. Each driver on the grid gets 10 flying laps in the same spec car or maybe a certain teams car, one which would be out of date and hold no secrets for other teams to find out and then just see how quick everyone can be.

I do actually hate that playoff system where the league winner isnt champion they do it in another sport I love, Speedway and I have never been a fan.


Top
 Profile  
 
PostPosted: Fri Dec 14, 2012 9:28 am 
Offline

Joined: Mon Oct 08, 2012 7:07 am
Posts: 4898
dingle_eater wrote:
When he joined the RB Young Drivers scheme he never knew the RB car in the future was gonna be this good hence its not lucky its more fortunate. Could things have panned out different and he stayed with BMW then Sauber?


Two remarks:
1) when he signed for RBR in 2008, the RBR was not a good car. He was outperforming both RBR drivers - and I don't even mean he outperformed both of them separately but he actually got more points in the standings than Webber and Coulthard combined.
2) in 2008 he also had the choice to sign for Mclaren, who had a great car at that time.

Actually, come to think of it: by choosing RBR and not Mclaren, he did exactly what people want him to do: sign for a "lesser" team to take up the challenge.


Top
 Profile  
 
PostPosted: Fri Dec 14, 2012 9:28 am 
Offline

Joined: Sat Aug 27, 2011 11:00 pm
Posts: 2986
Personally i don't believe in luck, things happen for a reason and overall things do even out at the end. You only get what you deserve, work out for, earn. Also the butterfly effect is something i believe in that EVERYTHING is dependent on something else.
I am not looking at a race, pass, car but look at the biggest picture there is to you. this is just the way life is, you are never lucky or unlucky. If you are born rich you can lose all your money and sleep on the streets. If you are born in the streets you can earn your way up to own a company. Neither happen because of luck or God favoring one or the other.

Same in racing, Alonso lost out in 2010 because of team error. Shumacher lost to him 2006 or 2005 (can't remember) because of team error (reliability). some say it is a shame JB never got to a winning car before 2009, maybe if he had gotten one his lifestyle back then would have made him noncompetitive and thus not be in F1 now!

things happen for a reason and people usually end up with what they deserve, be it a driver never winning a WDC but having loads of money, a stellar reputation and wins in another series, a WDC but not the best, a WDC with a bad reputation.

You make your own luck 100% and eventually get what you deserve, i make my opinions and decisions based on that and not really let "what if" come in consideration much (but always interesting to think about it). Each one gets what he deserves and nothing more, i never question that (no thing as an unworthy WDC), but you can regard each one whichever way you think based on what you understand (which is also something that that person achieves; regard or respect).

It is also worth noting that almost every one i have known that has worked/working in racing believes in luck (but i haven't met team owners, just fellow engineers).

I just believe you get what you deserve, be it tangible or not (a decent life, happiness, respect,,,etc.)


Sorry if this is a bit too philosophical.


Top
 Profile  
 
PostPosted: Fri Dec 14, 2012 11:32 am 
Offline
User avatar

Joined: Fri Nov 05, 2010 6:33 pm
Posts: 4952
Location: Ireland
Personally I believe there's no such thing as luck. Everything happens for a reason.

In F1 the only thing outside of human hands is the weather.
And when it rains we start to see a more level playing field i.e. the driver counts more than ever.

_________________
"I am a believer, but I start each Grand Prix with 195 liters of fuel behind me," he explains. "I don't rely entirely on God, I rely on Prost."


#14 for '14


Top
 Profile  
 
PostPosted: Fri Dec 14, 2012 11:43 am 
Offline
User avatar

Joined: Mon Nov 05, 2012 3:58 pm
Posts: 611
Location: London
M.Nader -DODZ- wrote:
Personally i don't believe in luck............


I strongly disagree with most of that, and especially the phrase "you make your own luck", a phrase I see most often used by people trying to grab a little credit for something over which they had no control.

Luck by its very definition is not something you have any control over, it's just a random occurrence. Whilst it is perhaps comforting to think that people ultimately get the luck they deserve, and that there is some karmedic force keeping score and balancing things out over time, it's just not true. Terrible things happen all the time to nice people and vice versa. By no means do people always get the good fortune that they deserve.

Please don't take this as a personal attack, I respect much of what you post, even if I don't agree with all of it, however on the subject of luck, I feel pretty strongly that life in general is more or less random, and whilst it is possible to stack the odds in your favour, there is no guarantee of success, no matter how much you may deserve it.


Top
 Profile  
 
PostPosted: Fri Dec 14, 2012 11:46 am 
Offline

Joined: Fri Dec 16, 2011 5:09 pm
Posts: 230
I don't normally like the word luck but chance certainly plays a big part in many results you can look at any year results have been close and see that all it takes is a tiny bit of carbon on the track to puncture a tyre and lose someone a position while pitting and history would have been so different.

It works both ways though, while you could say some of Hamilton's retirements this year were unlucky you could look at it the other way and point out times in the past when his rivals have had failures of incidents he hasn't and say he was just lucky not to retire so much in previous seasons.


Top
 Profile  
 
PostPosted: Fri Dec 14, 2012 12:27 pm 
Offline

Joined: Sat Aug 27, 2011 11:00 pm
Posts: 2986
Lojik wrote:
M.Nader -DODZ- wrote:
Personally i don't believe in luck............


I strongly disagree with most of that, and especially the phrase "you make your own luck", a phrase I see most often used by people trying to grab a little credit for something over which they had no control.

Luck by its very definition is not something you have any control over, it's just a random occurrence. Whilst it is perhaps comforting to think that people ultimately get the luck they deserve, and that there is some karmedic force keeping score and balancing things out over time, it's just not true. Terrible things happen all the time to nice people and vice versa. By no means do people always get the good fortune that they deserve.

Please don't take this as a personal attack, I respect much of what you post, even if I don't agree with all of it, however on the subject of luck, I feel pretty strongly that life in general is more or less random, and whilst it is possible to stack the odds in your favour, there is no guarantee of success, no matter how much you may deserve it.


Don't worry, nothing personal at all this is just a case of someone believing in something you/i don't, and i certainly am happy that you respect what i post!. :)

The way i see it is a bit opposite to you. you say that people try to take credit for something they had less control over, I personally like to take credit for failures i was not in control of which in turn will make me realize what i could have done to make it different. and this may involve to take credit for something that happened because of "luck" and i rationalize that by the following.

I will give you an example which i was convinced by when i thought about it when i was younger, A scientist in a lab trying very hard to produce a chemical, he fails miserably until one day a kid comes by and while playing kicks a table which causes all lot of things to fall and brake, things get mixed up and a small part of what the scientist is looking for occurs in the middle of a dangerous pool of mess and chemicals. The guy notices it, backtracks what happens and realizes what eh was doing wrong. Was he lucky the kid came playing by? was he lucky that things got mixed up the way he needed? I don't think so, i believe that person put himself in a position to take an advantage of such a rare and unpredictable occurrence

I can apply the same thing to many different examples in many ways such as Newton in science, and many areas in life in fact and that includes sport and racing.

and that is what i use to rationalize "luck" (the underlined bit), I do use the word often but that is just a bad habit and don't believe in it. I don't like to think on that i was unlucky that this happened, but how can i make the best out of that situation. I see no reason to put my failure or success to something out of my control as almost always there is something better i could have done, this is just who i am and how i behave. even if there is nothing i could have done, why give or take credit to something i don't know!

Anyhow, this is something completely unknown and i would say a lot would get their understanding of luck in a different way and see different things as lucky or not. and it is nice to see how people think differently and thus this will affect their behavior.


Top
 Profile  
 
PostPosted: Fri Dec 14, 2012 3:58 pm 
Offline
User avatar

Joined: Mon Mar 26, 2012 12:11 pm
Posts: 3029
mds wrote:
dingle_eater wrote:
When he joined the RB Young Drivers scheme he never knew the RB car in the future was gonna be this good hence its not lucky its more fortunate. Could things have panned out different and he stayed with BMW then Sauber?


Two remarks:
1) when he signed for RBR in 2008, the RBR was not a good car. He was outperforming both RBR drivers - and I don't even mean he outperformed both of them separately but he actually got more points in the standings than Webber and Coulthard combined.
2) in 2008 he also had the choice to sign for Mclaren, who had a great car at that time.

Actually, come to think of it: by choosing RBR and not Mclaren, he did exactly what people want him to do: sign for a "lesser" team to take up the challenge.

I don't think he actually had a choice in the matter. RB was already 9 years into their ownership of his life - he was going to do what they told him no matter what. Hadn't steered him wrong yet. Still haven't.

_________________
Image


Top
 Profile  
 
Display posts from previous:  Sort by  
Post new topic Reply to topic

All times are UTC


Who is online

Users browsing this forum: Exediron, rich06 and 1 guest


You cannot post new topics in this forum
You cannot reply to topics in this forum
You cannot edit your posts in this forum
You cannot delete your posts in this forum

Search for:
Jump to:  
Powered by phpBB® Forum Software © phpBB Group