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Who will win first?
Sergio Perez 70%  70%  [ 76 ]
Romain Grosjean 19%  19%  [ 21 ]
Nico Hulkenburg 10%  10%  [ 11 ]
Total votes : 108
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PostPosted: Wed Dec 19, 2012 9:20 am 
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Perez is a certainty.

the other two very likely, but depends on certain things.


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PostPosted: Wed Dec 19, 2012 9:24 am 
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What about Max Chilton? :twisted:


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PostPosted: Wed Dec 19, 2012 10:59 am 
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mds wrote:
The thing is, with expected relative car and driver performances in mind (and only speaking about the teams of these drivers), in normal situations:
- Hulkenberg should find 4 cars in front of him: both Mclarens, both Lotuses
- Grosjean should find 2-3 cars in front of him: both Mclarens (3 if you count Raikkonen to be generally in front of Grosjean)
- Perez should find only his team mate in front of him.

So as I said, Hulkenberg would probably need a freak race to end up in front of all of them. Perez less so.


OK, that sounds logical. But in F1 racing, a 'freak race' can happen very easily. It is called RAIN.

Both Perez in his Sauber and The Hulk in his Force India nearly pulled off wins under freak conditions in 2012. IMO, the Sauber is a marginally better car than Force India abd The Hulk has an outside chance in a rain disrupted race. I believe he is a better driver than the other two.

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PostPosted: Wed Dec 19, 2012 11:14 am 
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But there are other great rain drivers out there too... As you said, Perez in a good Mclaren would be a contender. Button, Vettel, Alonso would (normally) be in faster cars than Hulk and are pretty good rain drivers too. And Hamilton might overcome his car and get in on the action too.

Just "rain" isn't enough for me to call it a freak race. We would need rain, probably changing conditions through which Hulk would have to gain the advantage on all the others by doing something different, and even then some would likely have to DNF in order for him to win.

All of the above just my opinion ofcourse :)


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PostPosted: Wed Dec 19, 2012 12:06 pm 
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mds wrote:
But there are other great rain drivers out there too... As you said, Perez in a good Mclaren would be a contender. Button, Vettel, Alonso would (normally) be in faster cars than Hulk and are pretty good rain drivers too. And Hamilton might overcome his car and get in on the action too.

Just "rain" isn't enough for me to call it a freak race. We would need rain, probably changing conditions through which Hulk would have to gain the advantage on all the others by doing something different, and even then some would likely have to DNF in order for him to win.

All of the above just my opinion ofcourse :)


OK. Usually but not always, rain does indroduce freaky conditions to mix things up a little. IMO, if it rained during the practice/qualifying sessions, then The Hulk could end up in a more competitive position on the grid, perhaps in front of some of the 8 cars which surely would be in front of any Sauber under normal conditions. If wet conditions continue during the race, he might be able to capitalise with some good driving. I know it is a very long shot but somehow I fancy the possibility.

One thing. Of the 3 drivers that I mentioned, The Hulk is the only one who comes across as championship material in a good car. The other two will win some races but are not more than in the league of Alboreto, Boutsen, Patrese, Ralf Schumacher, Montoya etc.

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PostPosted: Wed Dec 19, 2012 12:24 pm 
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I pretty much agree with what you're saying. Although for me, the jury's still out on Perez :)


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PostPosted: Wed Dec 19, 2012 2:22 pm 
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Perez without a doubt.

Out of the three he's clearly the better driver.

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PostPosted: Wed Dec 19, 2012 3:57 pm 
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Perez without a doubt. This year he already had a car to do it, but next year he will have a team to do it, which is enormously inportant (see the difference between Sauber in Malaysia and Williams in Spain). He definitely will win one of the first 5 races of the season and Monaco will be a very good bet for his 2nd win.

Grosjean is very likely to take a win. He already almost did it in Valencia, so with more experience and luck it absolutely should be possible in 2013.

Unfortunately I don't see a chance for Hulk. He has the same crap team as Perez did this year and Sauber was already dropping back into deep midfield at the end of 2012, eventhough the problem was somewhat masked by marvelous race pace showed by Perez, while his teammate was nowhere near him, showing more realistic potential of the car..


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PostPosted: Wed Dec 19, 2012 4:23 pm 
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Armchair Expert wrote:
Perez without a doubt. This year he already had a car to do it, but next year he will have a team to do it, which is enormously inportant (see the difference between Sauber in Malaysia and Williams in Spain). He definitely will win one of the first 5 races of the season and Monaco will be a very good bet for his 2nd win.

Grosjean is very likely to take a win. He already almost did it in Valencia, so with more experience and luck it absolutely should be possible in 2013.

Unfortunately I don't see a chance for Hulk. He has the same crap team as Perez did this year and Sauber was already dropping back into deep midfield at the end of 2012, eventhough the problem was somewhat masked by marvelous race pace showed by Perez, while his teammate was nowhere near him, showing more realistic potential of the car..


Really? Here's some info you might want to know (I'm sure you'll find some illogical reasoning against it as per usual)

WDC - Perez 10, Kobayashi 12
Podiums - Perez 3, Kobayashi 1
Points Finishes - Perez 6, Kobayashi 9
Points - Perez 66, Kobayashi 60
Out raced - Perez 10, Kobayashi 10
Out qualified - Perez 11, Kobayashi 9

Can't really say that counts as "nowhere near him" does it 'Armchair Expert'?

The Sauber wasn't a bad car this year, and had the chance to win races, its up to Hulk to make the most of any similar chances. Perez's task is to make the most of the chance with McLaren. I expect him to do reasonably well in the Macca, but he's certainly not outclassed people as you seem to think he has.

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PostPosted: Fri Dec 21, 2012 9:59 am 
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"Sauber was already dropping back into deep midfield at the end of 2012, eventhough the problem was somewhat masked by marvelous race pace showed by Perez, while his teammate was nowhere near him, showing more realistic potential of the car" means Perez was outpacing Kobayashi by a country mile at the end of the year (5 tenths per lap in Abu Dhabi, 1 second per lap in Austin and India, we don't have a comparison for Korea as Kobayashi reckessly took out 2 cars in one corner and for Brazil when Perez was taken out on lap 1, but knowing the difference between them in Malaysia and seeing how Kobayashi could fight for good points, it's almost sure Perez would be right up there with Hulkenberg fighting for a win), I think it's crystal clear, isn't it? Why are you posting stats from full season, when it's not something I wrote about, is a bit puzzling.


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PostPosted: Fri Dec 21, 2012 10:12 am 
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For some reason I assumed that the full season was taken into account when judging driver's abilities. I think thats why Vettel's the Champ and not Alonso, because the whole season is taken into account.

But taking into account the period of time you were referring to, the end of 2012, Perez may have outpaced Kobayashi, but where did he finish the races? Didn't he recklessly take out cars in Abu Dhabi, recklessly take himself out and almost Hamilton in Japan, run into the back of Button (I think) in Korea, give himself a puncture trying to overtake Ricciardo in India, and was then unfortunately collected by the Vettel/Senna incident in Brazil. So partially due to his own recklessness, that meant he finished exactly 1 race in the last 6. He may well have outpaced Kobayashi, but he scored 0 points in the same period of time that Kobayashi scored 25. I think that's crystal clear as to who did the better job at the end of 2012, wouldn't you?

EDIT - by the way I agree with you on RoGro being likely to win!

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PostPosted: Fri Dec 21, 2012 1:31 pm 
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Simple, Sergio will have the car

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PostPosted: Sat Dec 22, 2012 1:22 am 
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Considering he is in a freaking McLaren, Perez.

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