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Who benefits most from Hamilton's move to Mercedes?
Jenson Button 34%  34%  [ 46 ]
Sebastian Vettel 12%  12%  [ 16 ]
Fernando Alonso 2%  2%  [ 3 ]
Kimi Raikkonen 2%  2%  [ 3 ]
Sergio Perez 39%  39%  [ 52 ]
Nico Rosberg 1%  1%  [ 2 ]
Hamilton himself 7%  7%  [ 9 ]
Other (please quote in post) 2%  2%  [ 3 ]
Total votes : 134
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PostPosted: Tue Dec 25, 2012 11:21 am 
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This is a poll about which driver is likely to benefit the most in 2013 from Lewis Hamilton's move from McLaren to Mercedes. To some extent this would be relative to their individual performance in 2012 and before, but also the final position in the points tally at the end of the 2013 season.

It occured to me that the possibilities are more than what would appear at first glance since F1 GP performances are all relative to one another. Teammates in similar cars might be taking points of each other thus benefitting a third driver and such equations vary when team drivers split and so on.

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PostPosted: Tue Dec 25, 2012 11:26 am 
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Everyone but Hamilton


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PostPosted: Tue Dec 25, 2012 11:45 am 
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F1nsider wrote:
Everyone but Hamilton


The question was who benefits the most. To some extent an answer can be open ended because of how one views 'benefit'. Perez might get 40 points more than in 2012 and gain 4 positions in the tally but if the permutations help Vettel win 4 more races while remaining in the same position, it would depend on one's perspective of which of the two benefitted more.

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PostPosted: Tue Dec 25, 2012 12:14 pm 
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Button definitely. If McLaren produce the best car he has a superb chance of winning the title as we know that he can deliver in the right car. I don't think he really had a chance of winning a second title as long as Hamilton was there.


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PostPosted: Tue Dec 25, 2012 12:19 pm 
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Perez, duh!


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PostPosted: Tue Dec 25, 2012 12:22 pm 
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F1nsider wrote:
Everyone but Hamilton

Good answer

In particular i would say Button though if Perez proves to be slower than him

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PostPosted: Tue Dec 25, 2012 12:23 pm 
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Interesting question, though one with a twist; as everything depends on the car and the way the team puts it under the drivers' bums.
But while there is some benefit to both Alonso and Vettel, the biggest beneficiary is doubtless Perez, followed immediately by Button. Perez wasn't going anywhere as long as Ferrari thought he wasn't ready for them, which means he is handed an incredible early opportunity.
Button's advantage speaks for itself, or himself: it's his team now.

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PostPosted: Tue Dec 25, 2012 12:30 pm 
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F1nsider wrote:
Everyone but Hamilton

This sums it up.
Hamilton was a threat to pretty much everyone in the top teams Including his team mate. But if a more specific answer is required I'd say Vettel and/or Alonso.


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PostPosted: Tue Dec 25, 2012 12:31 pm 
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Perez probably. Button has a lot to lose if Perez matches or even beats him. Perez has everything to gain.

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PostPosted: Tue Dec 25, 2012 12:34 pm 
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Laura23 wrote:
Perez probably. Button has a lot to lose if Perez matches or even beats him. Perez has everything to gain.

Your reply reminded me of something I had forgotten: that Pirelli hold quite a few cards in their hands, or up their sleeves.

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PostPosted: Tue Dec 25, 2012 12:36 pm 
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Fiki wrote:
But while there is some benefit to both Alonso and Vettel, the biggest beneficiary is doubtless Perez, followed immediately by Button.


That is a good answer but only one way of looking at it.

Let us imagine that Perez won 50 or 60 more points in 2013 than he did in 2012 amd moved from 10th to 6th in the final points tally; at the same time, Alonso got 10 less points than he did in 2012 but because of the permutations - ie the way in which the points were distributed - actually won the WDC by a few points from Vettel. If that happened I would consider Alonso as the biggest beneficiary of Hamilton's move because he won some points that he might not have if Hamilton had remained at McLaren and those few were enough to give him the WDC. Perez's upward move would be good for him but to some extent less relevant.

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PostPosted: Tue Dec 25, 2012 12:43 pm 
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Fiki wrote:
Laura23 wrote:
Perez probably. Button has a lot to lose if Perez matches or even beats him. Perez has everything to gain.

Your reply reminded me of something I had forgotten: that Pirelli hold quite a few cards in their hands, or up their sleeves.

Indeed.

They have said 2013 spec tyres will be just as, if not more agressive than this year. Looking after the tyres may be even more important. Drivers like Button and Perez are in the pound seats on paper, Hamilton and his slightly more agressive style coupled with a Mercedes team who haven't built a car that's been easy on tyres since 2009 should struggle on paper.

But time will tell. F1 is best a surprises.

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PostPosted: Tue Dec 25, 2012 12:43 pm 
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Button: now in a team where he has established himself, well liked, trusted and known. given that Mclaren are always there or there abouts he has an excellent chance with his toughest competitor (teammate) out of the way. i don't think Perez is as class as Lewis which gives Jenson a better chance of beating him if he can sustain his last 3 year form. a winner IMO as with Lewis there it is very difficult for either of them to win a WDC as they will take points off each other, unless something like this year happens again where the car is unreliable or unpredictable, and unfortunately this hit both drivers (him first) this year which didn't allow him to capitalize.

Vettel: Nothing changes, Mclaren still have Button who is just as good as Lewis IMO (and given he has scored the same points over 3 years he is just as likely to be WDC). Alonso is still there so nothing changes. looking at it he is maybe a loser since now Mclaren can focus more on Jenson instead of having both drivers take points of each other.

Alonso: same as Vettel. will not be bothered and most probably will lose to Button if Mclaren produce a better car.

Kimi: same as Vettel and Alonso.

Perez: a big winner! 22 years old, got the chance to driver in a well established team, with an experienced driver to learn from and if he can prove himself to be his equal to the team (doesn't necessarily mean beat him in the standings) has superb long term future

Rosberg: now has the chance to prove himself alongside one who is regarded as one of the best of the generation, in a team he is familiar with and has excellent potential. on the other hand if Mercedes to produce a winning car he and Lewis will be losers the same way Jenson and Lewis were as teammates. if he can however beat Lewis he will be very highly regarded.

Lewis: it was very difficult for him to win a WDC in Mclaren with JB there unless something like this year happens again where the car is unreliable or unpredictable, and unfortunately this hit both drivers this year which didn't allow him to capitalize. he entered the sport with a front running team in a front running car so never really matured as a driver in terms of development and non winning mentality (not really necessary IMO, but good skills to have) so there is no doubt he will learn at Mercedes and help them given what he knew on how Mclaren operated. if he can manage to beat Rosberg (who is decent!) then if Mercedes capitalize on their potential he will have a decent chance. But i doubt he will beat Rosberg that easy and things could turn into the same situation he was at Mclaren when he left with both of them taking points of each other.


Winners:
Jenson
Perez
Lewis
Rosberg

in that order


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PostPosted: Tue Dec 25, 2012 1:09 pm 
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Zekenwolf wrote:
Fiki wrote:
But while there is some benefit to both Alonso and Vettel, the biggest beneficiary is doubtless Perez, followed immediately by Button.


That is a good answer but only one way of looking at it.

Let us imagine that Perez won 50 or 60 more points in 2013 than he did in 2012 amd moved from 10th to 6th in the final points tally; at the same time, Alonso got 10 less points than he did in 2012 but because of the permutations - ie the way in which the points were distributed - actually won the WDC by a few points from Vettel. If that happened I would consider Alonso as the biggest beneficiary of Hamilton's move because he won some points that he might not have if Hamilton had remained at McLaren and those few were enough to give him the WDC. Perez's upward move would be good for him but to some extent less relevant.

Ah, but they won't be fighting the 2012 season anew, will they? All the counters go back to zero, with new cars, new tyres and new money.

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PostPosted: Tue Dec 25, 2012 1:12 pm 
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Easily Perez. If it were not for Hamilton's move to Mercedes, Sergio may not have even left Sauber.

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PostPosted: Tue Dec 25, 2012 1:17 pm 
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Fiki wrote:
Ah, but they won't be fighting the 2012 season anew, will they? All the counters go back to zero, with new cars, new tyres and new money.


Sure, but you need a yardstick for comparison and assessment and under the circumstances there is none better than the 2012 statistics.

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PostPosted: Tue Dec 25, 2012 2:40 pm 
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I would say Button. If he can beat Perez, which I think he will, and really settles into being the de facto team leader then his stock and results can only go up. Perez may well score big results next year but I dont see him beating Button and if Hulkenberg et all continue to impress then he may no longer be seen as the next big thing.
Don't forget Mercedes may well produce a Williams/ lotus like turnaround next season and surprise us all as well.(Hopefully) 2013 may not be a write-off for Lewis

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PostPosted: Tue Dec 25, 2012 2:54 pm 
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There are some winners, but Perez benefits most.

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PostPosted: Tue Dec 25, 2012 3:26 pm 
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I am surprised that no one, not even his fans, have voted for Hamilton as yet. Yes, on paper it seems like he made a poor choice but could there be a surpirse in store?

The Car: After all, Mercedes' modest performance in 2012 and before was tyre related to a large extent and with their resources, there is a chance that they might build a more competitive car. Look at the leap Red Bull made from RB4 to RB5.

The Driver: Hamilton's mental approach has to change now that he is on his own and everyone has lost no time reminding him of it. That sort of thing might just inspire him to try harder than ever.

The Teammate: Some people (I am not one of them) see Rosberg as not as strong a teammate as Button. It remains to be seen but if so, Hamilton could gain some points by default.

The Opposition: The only change here from Hamilton's perspective is that Button is now the undisputed #1 driver at McLaren. But is he? Some believe that Perez maight take points off him.

So, Hamilton's position might not be as bad as some people believe. ( ;) Just wondering)

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PostPosted: Tue Dec 25, 2012 3:32 pm 
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Vettel in Q, usually Ham is the one that stops him from getting pole position.


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PostPosted: Tue Dec 25, 2012 3:52 pm 
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Sergio. Has the potential to benefit most BUT he has also the potential to lose most too.

If he comes out three years fighting his stock will go up. If the Mclaren isn't top dog chances are their will be a seat available at one of the top teams. Alonso's at Ferrari possibly Sebs at RBR (If the ferrari rumours are true) and Lewis' at Merc. Then of course who knows with Lotus. If he is fighting well then has has the possibility to swap to a better team or stick with Macca if it is top and of course start of that bidding war for his services too.


How ever if he doesn't make the mark, well then it's Hello Caterham.


Zekenwolf wrote:
I am surprised that no one, not even his fans, have voted for Hamilton as yet. Yes, on paper it seems like he made a poor choice but could there be a surpirse in store?

The Car: After all, Mercedes' modest performance in 2012 and before was tyre related to a large extent and with their resources, there is a chance that they might build a more competitive car. Look at the leap Red Bull made from RB4 to RB5.

The Driver: Hamilton's mental approach has to change now that he is on his own and everyone has lost no time reminding him of it. That sort of thing might just inspire him to try harder than ever.

The Teammate: Some people (I am not one of them) see Rosberg as not as strong a teammate as Button. It remains to be seen but if so, Hamilton could gain some points by default.

The Opposition: The only change here from Hamilton's perspective is that Button is now the undisputed #1 driver at McLaren. But is he? Some believe that Perez maight take points off him.

So, Hamilton's position might not be as bad as some people believe. ( ;) Just wondering)


I wouldn't vote Hammy for those reasons. .

the car, the team have done similar for the last 2 years. They also done the same in the days of Honda and BAR. It's been a constant threat of Next year, we are swapping development to next year and this is the final piece we need to win. Ironically the only year there were no promises because they might have not made the grid they actually did something. The RB4 to RB5 also came with a raft of rule changes. Something that is not happening now. There will be no total clean wipe of the drawing board.

Rosberg. I personally think he has been underrated lately, unflattered by the Merc and the tyres . We seen what he could do when the Mercs problems weren't a problem at China and Monaco. If the Merc is sorted that is the sort of form I think we will see. If it isn't then Hamilton will have to do what Rosberg and Schui did for the majority of this year and back off to preserve the tyres.

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PostPosted: Tue Dec 25, 2012 4:15 pm 
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The entire paddock doesn't revolve around Lewis. Further, how his move affects anyone else, besides Sergio I suppose, depends entirely on his results. This is a silly question. (Also, who cares? Some of you act like Lewis going to Merc is like...Barack Obama becoming the Queen of England)

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PostPosted: Tue Dec 25, 2012 4:34 pm 
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Inappropriate post removed. Merry Christmas.


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PostPosted: Tue Dec 25, 2012 4:41 pm 
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Jim wrote:
Inappropriate post removed. Merry Christmas.


why so?


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PostPosted: Tue Dec 25, 2012 4:54 pm 
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M.Nader -DODZ- wrote:
Jim wrote:
Inappropriate post removed. Merry Christmas.


why so?


Because you dared rate Jenson anywhere near Lewis!

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PostPosted: Tue Dec 25, 2012 4:56 pm 
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SilverstoneRegular wrote:
M.Nader -DODZ- wrote:
Jim wrote:
Inappropriate post removed. Merry Christmas.


why so?


Because you dared rate Jenson anywhere near Lewis!


exactly


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PostPosted: Tue Dec 25, 2012 6:04 pm 
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Jim wrote:
SilverstoneRegular wrote:
M.Nader -DODZ- wrote:
Jim wrote:
Inappropriate post removed. Merry Christmas.


why so?


Because you dared rate Jenson anywhere near Lewis!


exactly


Him you may not rate him near Lewis but others do.. Get over it

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PostPosted: Tue Dec 25, 2012 6:11 pm 
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Kimi as he will move up one place in most races he finishes.

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PostPosted: Tue Dec 25, 2012 6:41 pm 
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Perez without a doubt. He has suddenly jumped to a top team whereas his teammate, who ran him close, will probably find himself without a seat next season. Perez will now go on to get regular podiums, wins, and may even get a shot at the title. And of course he will earn much more money than he did before.

Button will also gain a bit, but not too much. He could now start claiming to be good at quali with nobody around to show him up. He is the only British driver in a British team. With his considerable political skills he might even manage to get some preferential treatment out of McLaren. But at the end of the day his biggest problem remains. He cannot fight Alonso and Vettel in comparable machinery, and they are again likely to be championship contenders. Unless McLaren comes up with a rocket ship he'll have to stay content with some race wins, much like the last 3 years.

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PostPosted: Tue Dec 25, 2012 6:50 pm 
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Don't engage the trolls, please. He's been given a Christmas holiday.

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PostPosted: Tue Dec 25, 2012 6:56 pm 
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P-F1 Mod wrote:
Don't engage the trolls, please. He's been given a Christmas holiday.


Who? Jim?

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PostPosted: Tue Dec 25, 2012 8:06 pm 
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Button, as he said himself, now there is one driver less in front of him
He thinks at least.

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PostPosted: Tue Dec 25, 2012 10:42 pm 
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callMEcrazy wrote:
Button will also gain a bit, but not too much. He could now start claiming to be good at quali with nobody around to show him up. But at the end of the day his biggest problem remains. He cannot fight Alonso and Vettel in comparable machinery, and they are again likely to be championship contenders. Unless McLaren comes up with a rocket ship he'll have to stay content with some race wins, much like the last 3 years.


The comment about Button's qualifying is interesting because that might be a slight Achilles' Heel in his otherwise superb racecraft. I am not sure that Hamilton's move to Mercedes will affect the qualifying side of Button's performance, but he will benefit in the race itself.

Alonso has not been the greatest qualifiers either in recent times, but that is probably more to do with the characteristics of the Ferrari. But there is the possibility that Hamilton, usually a very good qualifier, will be less often in front of Alonso on the grid in the Mercedes as compared with the McLaren. To that extent Alonso will benefit and with his fast starts, could extend that advantage into the race as well.

Vettel will benefit a bit more than the other two in my opinion. He is a great qualifier and has had a few pole battles with Hamilton. But Hamilton in the Mercedes might be less of a challenge in qualifying and so we might see more of Vettel's pole & quick getaways. I am a bit disappointed with this although I am a Vettel fan because I was hoping that Red Bull would set up his RB9 a bit more like they did with the RB8 in Abu Dhabi. I doubt if they will try to change now.

An important factor might be how Perez qualifies in his McLaren. If he is in the front 2 rows he has a chance but further back he'll be mixing it with the likes of Grosjean and Massa and with the Mexican's slight tendency for errors when getting held up, he might struggle.

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PostPosted: Tue Dec 25, 2012 11:19 pm 
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M.Nader -DODZ- wrote:
Button: now in a team where he has established himself, well liked, trusted and known. given that Mclaren are always there or there abouts he has an excellent chance with his toughest competitor (teammate) out of the way. i don't think Perez is as class as Lewis which gives Jenson a better chance of beating him if he can sustain his last 3 year form. a winner IMO as with Lewis there it is very difficult for either of them to win a WDC as they will take points off each other, unless something like this year happens again where the car is unreliable or unpredictable, and unfortunately this hit both drivers (him first) this year which didn't allow him to capitalize.

Vettel: Nothing changes, Mclaren still have Button who is just as good as Lewis IMO (and given he has scored the same points over 3 years he is just as likely to be WDC). Alonso is still there so nothing changes. looking at it he is maybe a loser since now Mclaren can focus more on Jenson instead of having both drivers take points of each other.

Alonso: same as Vettel. will not be bothered and most probably will lose to Button if Mclaren produce a better car.

Kimi: same as Vettel and Alonso.

Perez: a big winner! 22 years old, got the chance to driver in a well established team, with an experienced driver to learn from and if he can prove himself to be his equal to the team (doesn't necessarily mean beat him in the standings) has superb long term future

Rosberg: now has the chance to prove himself alongside one who is regarded as one of the best of the generation, in a team he is familiar with and has excellent potential. on the other hand if Mercedes to produce a winning car he and Lewis will be losers the same way Jenson and Lewis were as teammates. if he can however beat Lewis he will be very highly regarded.

Lewis: it was very difficult for him to win a WDC in Mclaren with JB there unless something like this year happens again where the car is unreliable or unpredictable, and unfortunately this hit both drivers this year which didn't allow him to capitalize. he entered the sport with a front running team in a front running car so never really matured as a driver in terms of development and non winning mentality (not really necessary IMO, but good skills to have) so there is no doubt he will learn at Mercedes and help them given what he knew on how Mclaren operated. if he can manage to beat Rosberg (who is decent!) then if Mercedes capitalize on their potential he will have a decent chance. But i doubt he will beat Rosberg that easy and things could turn into the same situation he was at Mclaren when he left with both of them taking points of each other.


Winners:
Jenson
Perez
Lewis
Rosberg

in that order


I don't agree that you think Vettel has nothing to gain by Hamilton going to a much slower car. How many times Jenson Button has challenged Vettel head to head on track last year and come out on top? I can't remember any. But I do remember Vettel getting the best out of Button a couple of times, most notably in Singapore. I saw Hamilton get the best of Vettel on at least 3 occasions last year. Quite frankly Hamilton has been a pain in the neck for Vettel this last year. Just think of the Austin race, and imagine if it was Jenson Button in that car chasing down Vettel instead of Hamilton; it would have been advantage Vettel. But because it was Lewis, the general feeling was that it was only a matter of time before Lewis passed him, and he did.


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PostPosted: Wed Dec 26, 2012 7:21 am 
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Hamilton benefits most. He took control of his career and made a decision for him. It's a gamble but Lewis has been a great driver without the experience of driving for a team without a proper car. I've ratted on Lewis a lot, manly because people think he's god with the one championship but going too Merc is gong to cause him to grow up. I might actually like Lewis if he doesn't blow up at Mercedes.


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PostPosted: Wed Dec 26, 2012 7:52 am 
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kleefton wrote:

I don't agree that you think Vettel has nothing to gain by Hamilton going to a much slower car. How many times Jenson Button has challenged Vettel head to head on track last year and come out on top? I can't remember any. But I do remember Vettel getting the best out of Button a couple of times, most notably in Singapore. I saw Hamilton get the best of Vettel on at least 3 occasions last year. Quite frankly Hamilton has been a pain in the neck for Vettel this last year. Just think of the Austin race, and imagine if it was Jenson Button in that car chasing down Vettel instead of Hamilton; it would have been advantage Vettel. But because it was Lewis, the general feeling was that it was only a matter of time before Lewis passed him, and he did.


Australia, China and Germany :)
Button ended on top, you can count Belgium too if you would like but Vettel never really got close enough to challenge IMO.

also remember that in 2011 the exact opposite of what you are proposing was happening, Jenson was the one doing the hunting and in all of his 3 wins he had to pass Vettel on track, where as Lewis only did it in China and was never a problem (we don't know what would have happened in Abudhabi). Vettel has been challenged by those two guys a lot IMO and what he will gain from Lewis leaving he will lose with Button who will most likely have a better team environment.

Qualifying however, he will gain in that area as Lewis could do wonders that Jenson just can't (except on some tracks).


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PostPosted: Wed Dec 26, 2012 8:01 am 
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Zekenwolf wrote:
callMEcrazy wrote:
Button will also gain a bit, but not too much. He could now start claiming to be good at quali with nobody around to show him up. But at the end of the day his biggest problem remains. He cannot fight Alonso and Vettel in comparable machinery, and they are again likely to be championship contenders. Unless McLaren comes up with a rocket ship he'll have to stay content with some race wins, much like the last 3 years.


The comment about Button's qualifying is interesting because that might be a slight Achilles' Heel in his otherwise superb racecraft. I am not sure that Hamilton's move to Mercedes will affect the qualifying side of Button's performance, but he will benefit in the race itself.

Alonso has not been the greatest qualifiers either in recent times...


I think no one will doubt the fact that Lewis is the better qualifier of the two, but is Jenson really that bad?
2010 the average gap between them was 0.16 in quali, 2011 it was 0.2 and 2012 it was 0.275 IIRC. and when the car is to his liking he is usually 0.1s or less behind Lewis, and on some tracks he can be ahead (japan for example). I don't think that it is Jenson who is a poor qualifier but Lewis who is a superb one. I would rate Jenson's qualifying with Alonso's and both behind Lewis. (Vettel still unknown as his only teammate is an aging Webber).

to give an example on that Let's say Lewis qualifies a car 2nd while Jenson 4th. in the race both of them end up fighting for 3rd/4th, now was the car potential 2nd or 3rd/4th? or did one of them go for a setup optimized setup and the other not? doesn't really matter as both cars will end up in the same place (unless this is Monaco).


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PostPosted: Wed Dec 26, 2012 12:25 pm 
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Zekenwolf wrote:
callMEcrazy wrote:
Button will also gain a bit, but not too much. He could now start claiming to be good at quali with nobody around to show him up. But at the end of the day his biggest problem remains. He cannot fight Alonso and Vettel in comparable machinery, and they are again likely to be championship contenders. Unless McLaren comes up with a rocket ship he'll have to stay content with some race wins, much like the last 3 years.


The comment about Button's qualifying is interesting because that might be a slight Achilles' Heel in his otherwise superb racecraft. I am not sure that Hamilton's move to Mercedes will affect the qualifying side of Button's performance, but he will benefit in the race itself.

Alonso has not been the greatest qualifiers either in recent times, but that is probably more to do with the characteristics of the Ferrari. But there is the possibility that Hamilton, usually a very good qualifier, will be less often in front of Alonso on the grid in the Mercedes as compared with the McLaren. To that extent Alonso will benefit and with his fast starts, could extend that advantage into the race as well.

Vettel will benefit a bit more than the other two in my opinion. He is a great qualifier and has had a few pole battles with Hamilton. But Hamilton in the Mercedes might be less of a challenge in qualifying and so we might see more of Vettel's pole & quick getaways. I am a bit disappointed with this although I am a Vettel fan because I was hoping that Red Bull would set up his RB9 a bit more like they did with the RB8 in Abu Dhabi. I doubt if they will try to change now.

An important factor might be how Perez qualifies in his McLaren. If he is in the front 2 rows he has a chance but further back he'll be mixing it with the likes of Grosjean and Massa and with the Mexican's slight tendency for errors when getting held up, he might struggle.


Alonso has been an awesome qualifier off late. He probably fared better against his teammate in quali than either Vettel or Hamilton did last season. If the Ferrari itself is a poor qualifier, as everything indicates, then he can only do so much.

Anyway, whatever gains Alonso and Vettel will make as a result of this move are very small in comparison to Perez's or even Button's. Vettel gains a bit because he no longer has a rival in quali. He might take 12-15 poles next season. Alonso might gain if Hamilton is not there to split him and Vettel. So its not much. But all that of course depends on next years pecking order.

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PostPosted: Wed Dec 26, 2012 12:29 pm 
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Perez, Button, Vettel, Alonso....

Perez ultimately probably benefits the most.


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