Interesting that this thread should pop up.
Just last night I went into a bit of detail on this in the "Which drivers would have won in this year's Red Bull?" thread.
Covalent wrote:
What do you think about Vettel and Alonso switching places?
My honest opinion?
Alonso would have been champ. No doubt in my mind.
I don't think anybody could have done a better job in the 2012 Ferrari - not Hamilton, not Vettel, not anyone. Now don't get me wrong, I think Vettel would have been competitive and, like Alonso, he would have left Massa in his dust. And I think Vettel is faster than Alonso over one lap and probably would start a few races higher up the grid (although this depends on the points I'm about to make about driving style).
I think the frustration of the F2012 would get to him.
I'm thinking purely of driving style. Vettel stated that he couldn't pull his usual tricks with the RB8 (before Singapore obviously) and I don't think he had much confidence in the car. I could only imagine what sort of confidence he would have had in a Ferrari that was liable to change from understeer to oversteer in the middle of a corner.
Gary Anderson often went into detail about Ferrari's problems in his BBC columns and how the Ferrari drivers were constantly sawing at the wheel, whereas the Red Bulls & McLarens were planted to the floor (and this was late in the season - could have been his Suzuka column - can't remember). He more or less said Alonso was still in the title hunt because he just got on with it. He's the king of adapting his driving style (my words, not Gary's) and I don't think many of the other drivers would have adapted to such a poor car. I dread to think what the likes of Jenson Button could have managed in the F2012.
Apparently Alonso was also the first one to figure out how to drive the 2012 Pirellis (I can't remember if it was Gary's column or James Allen's blog where I read this). He figured out pretty quick that they didn't like braking and turning at the same time. So he changed what he was doing - changed to braking first, then turning. Supposedly this took a bit longer for the others to figure out. So in those first few races, with that knowledge in hand and a Red Bull handling much better than the Ferrari, I think he would have collected many more points than he did in reality. And this would have laid the foundation to him building a lead when he got the revised Red Bull in the latter stages of the season.
Pure speculation but I'm basing my opinions on what I have heard/read/seen with my own eyes and putting all this info together.
The great unknown in my speculation is if Alonso can drive a hooked up "Newey-on-his-A-game" Red Bull like Vettel can. Could Alonso use acceleration to plant his car like Vettel can (i.e. the tricks Vettel was talking about)? And would he score 4 victories in a row with a car that stuck to the ground if you put your confidence in it?
Who knows. We know Webber can't do it to the same degree. Personally I think Alonso
would be able to adapt and drive the revised RB8 to race victories but this is purely my opinion.