Hard to imagine it being anybody outside of the 'big 5' teams. So:
Red Bull: You can't not say Vettel, can you? Only the most hardened Vettel hater, or somebody who was convinced the 2013 Red Bull will be horrible (and that Adrian Newey wouldn't be able to develop it over the season) wouldn't at least have him as a contender. Webber? I can see him keeping pace with Seb for half, or even three-quarters of the season, but ultimately fading away when it matters most. I don't know whether that makes him a contender or not. In the sense that he could win the WDC, and has a better shot at it than only three or four over drivers, then I suppose it does. Right now, I would say he's a contender, but less of one than his teammate.
McLaren: If JB is ever going to win another WDC, this year surely represents his best shot at it. He'll probably have one of the best cars on the grid, has a teammate who is yet to win a race (and, by the end of 2012, had managed to get people questioning whether he should've even got the drive) and a situation where three of the best drivers on the grid (Alonso, Kimi and Lewis) could be in slower cars. With all that in mind, I definitely think he's a contender. As for Perez, not this year, for me. Think he can win a race or two, but can't see him being a serious contender for the WDC.
Ferrari: Fernando will be a contender unless Ferrari deliver a car that is legitimately terrible. That being said, I don't know if he could possibly have the kind of season he had last year in 2013, just because of how good it was. If Ferrari give him that kind of challenge again this year, can he get that much out of it again? Massa? My heart would love to believe the improvement he showed over 2012, and indeed actually outpacing Alonso, suggests he's going to be a contender in 2013, but my head knows he won't be. I just hope he won't be quite so far off, and would love to see him win a race or two.
Lotus/Mercedes: Assuming you have Alonso, Button, Vettel and maybe Webber as contenders, I couldn't imagine having both Kimi and Lewis also in contention. Maybe it sounds stupid, but I just can't foresee six drivers from five teams fighting for the WDC. So I think you either get Kimi having another strong season and being in the mix, or Merc making a huge stride forwards and Lewis being a challenger. The former seems more likely than the latter, just because of how bad Merc were in '12, but then again they did switch their attention to 2013 pretty early. Anyway, I think you get Kimi or Lewis in contention, unless Ferrari, Red Bull or McLaren have a car that means they're suddenly only the 5th fastest team.
TL;DR: Contenders, IMO, are Alonso, Button, Vettel (with Webber in the mix until 4 or 5 races from the end) and one of Kimi or Lewis. With the Championship itself coming down to Alonso, Button and Vettel.
_________________ Cheering for: Leclerc, Hulkenberg, Vandoorne Pick 10 | 1 win, 10 podiums 2017: 6th | 2016: 8th | 2015: 2nd | 2014: 15th | 2013: 17th | 2012: 11th
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